Global Economic Monitor 220621

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks stage small bounce as investors weigh cenbanks' next moves

※   Fed policymakers including Powell to speak this week

※   French yields rise after Macron election loss

※   Dollar dips but remains near two-decade highs

•   Metals: Copper drops to nine-month low on recession fears

•   Iron ore: Iron ore price surrenders gains for the year as Chinese demand cools

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin holds near $20,000 as investors fear "domino effect"

•   한국: 코스피·코스닥, 연저점…코스피 19개월만에 2,400 붕괴 마감

•   한국: 원화값 1292.4원…속절없는 하락

[Indicators]

•   UK Jun. House prices: UK House Price Hit Record But Signs of a Cooldown Mount

•   China LPR: China’s PBOC Holds Benchmark Lending Rates Steady

•   한국 5월 경제고통지수: 물가·고용 비명… 경제고통지수 21년 만에 최고치

•   한국 5월 주택가격(KB): 매수심리 꺾이자 전월세 들썩

[News]

•   WSJ: In Ukraine’s Occupied South, Russia Tries to Build Loyalty to Putin

•   WSJ: Russia Strikes Ukrainian Positions, Residential Areas in Donbas

•   WSJ: Biden Says He Is Near Decision on Backing Federal Gasoline-Tax Holiday

※   Democratic-led efforts to pause tax of 18.4 cents a gallon have stalled amid GOP opposition; average fuel cost hits $4.98 a gallon

•   WSJ: Labor Shortage Stymies Construction Work as $1 Trillion Infrastructure Spending Kicks In

•   WSJ: Small Businesses Fall Behind on Hiring as Inflation Takes a Toll

•   WSJ: Fed’s Bullard Says He Expects Economic Expansion to Continue This Year

•   WSJ: Less Russian Gas Puts Europe’s Winter Fuel Supply in Jeopardy

•   WSJ: Israel Heads for New Elections as Coalition Moves to Dissolve Parliament

•   WSJ: Stocks Historically Don’t Bottom Out Until the Fed Eases

•   WSJ: EY’s Breakup Plan Means Windfalls for Partners

•   WSJ: GM and Ford, Driving to Beat Tesla, Turn on Each Other

•   WSJ: The Metaverse Lures Brands Like Nike and Gap With New Ways to Market and Make Money

•   NYT: Despite Another Covid Surge, Deaths Stay Near Lows

•   NYT: Google Says It’s Time for Longtime Small-Business Users to Pay Up

•   WP: Last month, China imported more Russian crude oil than ever before

•   WP: A picture-perfect metaverse is years away. Meta’s prototypes prove it.

•   FT: EU warns against fossil fuel ‘backsliding’ as coal replaces Russian gas

※   Ursula von der Leyen says focus should remain on investment in renewables as countries try to avert energy crisis

•   FT: ‘Ungovernable’ French parliament to stymie Macron’s reform drive

•   FT: Russia threatens retaliation against Lithuania following rail ‘blockade’

•   FT: Battling to define success after the WTO summit

•   FT: Europe does not face fresh sovereign debt crisis, says eurogroup chief

•   FT: Lagarde defends ECB plan to counter bond market panic

•   FT: The deafening silence over Brexit’s economic fallout

•   FT: Bank of England official warns of higher inflation if rate rises lag US

•   FT: UK to cut red tape around post-Brexit quality assurance mark

•   FT: Is Britain headed for a summer of strikes?

•   FT: China denies building naval bases but fear of its military reach grows

•   FT: EU companies say China units increasingly isolated from HQ by zero-Covid

•   FT: Ex-rebel Gustavo Petro faces uphill task to meet Colombian voters’ expectations

•   FT: No, Russia won’t replace Swift with the blockchain

•   FT: The new workplace: what young starters need to know

•   FT: Asset managers told to clean up greenwashing and net zero claims

•   Bloomberg: EU, China Aim for Talks in Next Few Weeks, Ambassador Says

•   Bloomberg: More Than Half of Global Consumers Didn’t Save During Pandemic

•   Bloomberg: Larry Summers Says US Needs 5% Jobless Rate for Five Years to Ease Inflation

•   Bloomberg: Biden Says US Recession Avoidable After Call With Ex-Treasury Secretary Summers

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Urges Less Dependence on Other Nations for Key Supplies

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Says ‘Stay Tuned’ for Word on Russian Oil Price-Cap Plan

•   Bloomberg: US House Prices Are Likely to Drop as Rates Rise, Capital Economics Says

•   Bloomberg: Ukraine Is Poised to Get Backing of EU States on Membership Path

•   Bloomberg: Lagarde Restates ECB Hiking Plan as Crisis Tool Takes Shape

•   Bloomberg: Villeroy Says ECB’s Tool Should Send Clear No-Limits Message

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Stournaras: Must Keep Focus on Medium-Term Inflation Goal

•   Bloomberg: UK Rail Strikes to Proceed After Unions Reject Last-Minute Offer

•   Bloomberg: Germany’s Biggest Union Pushes for 7%-8% Raise in Wage Talks

•   Bloomberg: Major Firms Ready to Lower Gas Use This Summer, Germany Says

•   Bloomberg: BOE May Seek to Recover QE Losses From Banks, UK Analyst Says

•   Bloomberg: Worst Is Yet to Come for Food Inflation in Asia, Nomura Warns

•   Bloomberg: China Lists Hong Kong Housing Among Big Focuses for Next Leader John Lee

•   Bloomberg: Even Without a Lockdown, Beijing’s Economy Struggled in May

•   Bloomberg: US Sanctions Helped China Supercharge Its Chipmaking Industry

•   Bloomberg: China Studying ‘Extraordinary’ Support for Manufacturers: Report

•   Bloomberg: Tax Reform Seen as Key for Japan’s $74 Billion Startup Push

•   Bloomberg: South Africa Renews Bid to Stem Blockades on Key Trade Routes

•   Bloomberg: South Africa’s Eskom Announces First Power Cuts in Three Weeks

•   Bloomberg: Covid Stimulus Running Out Threatens Indonesia’s Growth Target

•   Bloomberg: Iran Says Legal Work Underway for Release of Seized Greek Ships

•   Bloomberg: BOJ’s Kuroda and PM Kishida Reiterate United Front on Forex

•   Bloomberg: It Took a Record $81 Billion Bond Buy for BOJ to Restore Calm

•   Bloomberg: Russian Oil Flows to Europe Have Quietly Started Creeping Up

•   Bloomberg: Asia Boosts Exports of Blendstocks to US Amid Gasoline Squeeze

•   Bloomberg: Empty Container Boxes Stuck at Rotterdam May Stoke Asia Shortage

•   Reuters: German tax take soars, but war clouds outlook

•   Reuters: China power demand sets new records as heatwaves bake northern cities

•   Reuters: Chinese splash out on tech goods, camping gear in shopping fest

•   Reuters: Explainer: What's new with the Fed's bank stress tests in 2022

•   CNN: 5 signs the housing market is starting to slow down

•   CNBC: This clean energy play’s business model may just be recession proof

•   Fox News: Russia's air force has 'underperformed' in Ukraine due to 'risk-averse' strategy, UK says

•   Fox Business: Biden needs to produce more US oil to cut record gas prices, expert says

•   Variety: Netflix Braces for More Layoffs This Week

•   SCMP: European nations tell China ‘self-isolation’ is stoking ‘mistrust’ in plea for easing of Covid-19 curbs

•   Caixin: Beijing’s Covid-19 Flare-Up Produces No Severe Cases

•   Caixin: Less Than 0.1% of Shanghai’s Hospitalized Covid Patients Develop Severe Illness, Study Shows

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan startups see Kishida's 'new capitalism' as road without map

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan Inc.'s capital spending poised to roar back 25%

•   Nikkei Asia: Toyota suppliers signal ambition in agriculture and health care

•   Mainichi: Food prices rising in Japan, cooking oil up 1.5-fold on year

•   Mainichi: Japan retains economic assessment, warns of prolonged war in Ukraine

•   Economic Times: India's food inflation likely to top 9 per cent, according to Nomura

•   매경(P1): 월세 거주자 稅혜택 확대…尹 "금리부담 덜어야"

•   매경: 세입자 저금리 전세대출 늘리고…임대차 3법 보완책 만든다

•   매경: 뛰는 물가에 尹 "국민 숨 넘어 가"…3분기 전기료 인상 결정 전격 연기

•   매경(P1): 주담대 하루 늦게 받았더니…1년 이자 150만원 늘었다

•   매경: 하루새 대출금리 0.4%P 급등…전세대출자 벌벌 떤다

•   매경: 李 금감원장 "취약대출자 저금리 전환, 은행권이 나서달라"

•   매경: 20일 넘은 국회 태업…잠자는 법안만 1만건

•   매경: 한수원 사장 공모에 9명 지원…유연백·이종호·황주호 등

•   매경: 일자리 늘었지만…청년층 여성 고용질 떨어져

※   한국은행: 우리나라 고용의 질 평가

•   매경: '계륵'이던 원통형 배터리, 화려한 부활

•   매경: 낙폭과대주 대거 산 개인 -17.5% '눈물'…통신·은행주 담은 외국인 -7.7% '선방'

•   매경: 주가 너무 떨어졌네…장부가도 안되는 상장사 853개

•   매경: '거래 절벽' 더 심해질까…서울 아파트 분양 40% 줄고, 전국 청약 경쟁률 '뚝'

•   한경(P1): '찻잔 속 태풍' 그친 공공기관 평가…코레일 등 3곳 낙제점

※   기재부: 2021년도 공공기관 경영실적 평가 결과 발표

•   한경: 공공기관 개혁 시급한데…'노동이사제'가 발목 잡나

•   한경(P1): 이재용 '기술 강조' 이틀 만에 삼성 사장단 '비상경영' 회의

•   한경: 금리·임금·환율·물가 '高혈압 경제'…알짜 팔고 M&A 접는 기업들

•   한경: "대주주 양도세 줄어드니…韓기업 투자 30% 늘었다"

•   한경: 국내생산 비중 '세계 1위' 현대차…생산성·영업이익률은 '최하위권'

•   한경: '빚투' 접는 개미들…신용잔액 1년반 만에 최저

•   한경: '이주비 지원' 카드 사라지자…건설사, 수주전략 '고민'

•   한경: 대출 80%까지 되는데…'생애최초' 구입 급감

•   한경: 경상·재정수지 적자에 가계빚까지…'무서운 세쌍둥이' 온다

•   한경: 완전자율주행차가 가져올 산업계의 변화는 어떨까?

•   한경: 네이버·카카오 '실적 보릿고개' 언제까지…

•   서경: '버팀목' 반도체 투톱, 실적전망도 암울

•   서경: 경직된 노동시장이 성장엔진 갉아먹어…"고용 유연화, 최우선 과제"

•   서경: 통상임금·주휴수당·최저임금 갈등…단순·성과중심 개편이 해법

•   서경: 근로자대표제·노사협의회 등 노사 대화채널 제 역할 해야

•   서경: “中과 격차 벌린다” 삼성·하이닉스, 차차세대 ‘3D D램’ 승부수

•   서경: 리튬·니켈 가격 하락 전망…배터리-원자재 ‘갑을’ 역전될까

•   서경: 네이버클라우드, 퀄컴과 '5G 드론' 동맹

•   서경: [시그널] M&A시장 알짜 쏟아져도…주인 찾기는 '답보'

•   서경: [일용직들 경기침체 직격탄] "일감 4분의1로 줄어…오늘도 허탕 쳤어요"

•   조선(P1): 이달말 NATO 회의서 韓·日·호주·뉴질랜드 4자회담 열릴 듯

•   조선비즈: “제품값 올려야는데”… 철강업계, 전기료 인상 앞두고 고민

•   조선비즈: 나랏돈 들여 짓는 SOC, 철도 4.8년·도로 3.2년 늑장 공사…줄줄새는 국민 혈세

•   조선비즈: “혹한기 온다” 비용절감 나선 적자 이커머스

•   조선비즈: “세금 폭탄 피하자”… 다시 고개 든 아파트 증여

•   조선비즈: 로봇에 꽂힌 배민, AJ네트웍스와 손잡고 서빙로봇 사업 키운다

•   인베스트조선: 삼성전자·SK하이닉스, M&A 최대 걸림돌로 떠오른 미국 반독점법

•   중앙(P1): 이젠 먼지만 먹고 있다…원전 강소기업의 눈물

•   중앙: 원전 부품사 38% 원자력 매출 0…전공생 595명 자퇴 [원전 강소기업의 눈물]

•   중앙: 탈원전 5년간 해외수주 0…'원전 국대' 꾸린다, 제일 먼저 갈 곳 [원전 강소기업의 눈물]

•   중앙: ‘원·금·환’ 3중고를 버텨라

•   중앙: “3D 프린팅 주택 사흘이면 짓는데…국내선 상용화 안돼 미국 수출”

•   한국: 기름·먹거리값 할인, '고물가 부메랑' 될라…불청객 된 소비

•   국민: 내년에 ‘로봇 임플란트 수술 시대’ 열린다

•   한겨레(P1): [단독] 주식·원화가치 ‘우르르’…금융불안지수 ‘주의’ 단계 진입

•   경향(P1): 대통령 한 마디에…‘반도체부’ 된 교육부

•   경향: 더 쪼그라든 취약계층 삶…‘빈곤선’ 현실화로 ‘사각’ 없애야

•   머니투데이(P1): 탄소중립 기술 개발해도 규제·규제...尹정부 "신발 속 돌멩이 빼주겠다"지만...

•   머니투데이: 석유의 종말, 플랫폼의 부흥…돈맥을 읽는 자, 세상을 잡았다

•   머니투데이: '美中사이 글로벌 넛크래커'…삼성 빼곤, 韓 기업 줄줄이 역주행

•   머니투데이: 100인치 넘본다…LG의 '세계 최대' 올레드 TV 가격은?

•   머니투데이: '수소 경제' 뛰어든 LG화학···첫 공장 짓고 넷제로 '성큼'

•   머니투데이: "몰디브서 90일 해외 원격근무"…또 파격근무제 내세운 '이 회사'

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 요즘 부자들 재테크 갈아탔다…건물 팔아 빚부터 갚는다고?

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): "포장이요~" 물가 치솟자 외면받는 배달앱 [호황 끝나가는 배달시장]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 폐배터리로 ESS 개발… OCI·현대차, 9월 美서 시범사업

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]디스플레이, 국가첨단전략기술 지정 유력

•   아시아경제: 中에 치이고 반도체에 밀리고…‘디스플레이 구하기’ 나선 정부

•   아시아경제: 인플레이션 위기 속 최저임금 '1만원 전쟁'

•   아시아경제: [개혁의 적들]① 포퓰리즘과 가짜뉴스가 망친 국민연금

•   아시아경제: [개혁의 적들]② 윤석열식 공적연금…보험료 올리고 기초연금 더 주고?

•   아시아경제: [개혁의 적들]③ 화두로 떠오른 연금개혁···논의 없는 군인연금

•   아시아경제: [개혁의 적들]④ 전문가들 “연금 팩트체크 먼저…정부 의지 보여야”

•   아시아경제: [개혁의 적들]⑤꾸준히 연금 뜯어 고치는 OECD, 감감무소식 대한민국

•   아시아경제: 현대차·기아 테슬라 추격전, 자율주행 SW에 달렸다[테크전쟁, 선진국의 탄생]

•   아시아경제: 시멘트·레미콘업계, '시한폭탄' 남았다

•   아시아경제: "금리충격 또 온다" 얼어붙는 회사채 시장

•   디지털타임스: 전기차 화재 한달새 2건… 배터리 책임공방 `가열`

•   디지털타임스: 호텔 대관·예식장 매출 코로나 이전 회복… 객실 매출은 64% 수준

•   이데일리: 연봉·나이 같은데, 대출가능액 두배차 난다고?

•   이데일리: OECD 중 한국·터키에만 없는 재정준칙…또 위기 오면 어쩌나

•   이데일리: 브레이크 없는 나랏빚 증가세…재정정상화 더는 못 미룬다

•   이데일리: `건전재정 전환` 천명한 尹정부, 새로운 재정준칙 만든다

•   이데일리: 거래절벽·고금리에…잘나가던 20년 넘은 구축도 하락 대열

•   이데일리: [단독]'러 경제제재 여파'…하반기 산불·환자이송용 헬기 못 띄운다

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 8786명 확진…어제 동시간대 2.6배

•   연합: 전경련 "중대재해법, 정의부터 명확히해야"…노동부에 개선 건의

•   연합: 국내 독자 개발 '누리호', 오늘 다시 우주로 향한다

•   연합: 원자재가 상승에 전력-에너지기업 매출액 대비 원재료 비중↑ 수익↓

•   연합: 일터 내몰리는 노인들…노인소득 절반 이상은 일해서 버는 소득

•   아시아타임즈: [단독] “이런 것도 원가절감?” 갤럭시S22 울트라, 베이퍼챔버 ‘복불복’ 논란

•   전자신문(P1): DB하이텍, 8인치 SiC반도체 생산라인 구축

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트] 주요 VC들 어디에 투자했나…“1순위는 바이오·의료"

•   전자신문: 면세업계 '치킨게임' 과열…송객수수료율 40% 넘었다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Michael R. Strain): Biden’s Empty Inflation Rhetoric

•   Project Syndicate(Alexander Schallenberg, Phil Twyford): The New Urgency of Nuclear Disarmament

•   Project Syndicate(Jeffrey Frankel): Does International Trade Weaken or Strengthen Countries’ Resilience?

•   FT(Editorial Board): Emmanuel Macron pays the price for taking voters for granted

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Farewell to Russia and to the Sinatra doctrine

•   FT(Mohamed El-Erian): Central banks and markets share a secular awakening

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Bear market to the rescue

•   FT(Ruchir Sharma): Why China is not rising as a financial superpower

•   FT(Lex): Miners/iron ore: faltering Chinese demand highlights problems ahead

•   FT(Lex): ECB/EU bonds: big bazooka needed to stop spreads blowing up

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): A Bad Day for Emmanuel Macron

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Breaking the Biden Age Taboo

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Undoing the Covid ‘Taxpayer Heist’

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Slouching to Saudi Arabia

•   WSJ(Rick Scott): A Plan to Get Americans Back to Work

•   WSJ(Graham Allison, Eric Schmid): Semiconductor Dependency Imperils American Security

•   WSJ(Bjorn Lomborg): The Rich World’s Climate Hypocrisy

•   WP(Megan McArdle): A generation of homeowners encounters a strange new market

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): Xi Jinping, China’s Chief Career Planning Officer?

•   Bloomberg(Chris Hughes): Are the Days of UK Property Booms and Busts Over?

•   Bloomberg(James Stavridis): NATO Must Bring Finland, Sweden and Turkey Together

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): Europe Needs a Better Nuclear Deterrent Against Putin

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): Political Gridlock In France Is Risk for Europe

•   Bloomberg(Clara Ferreira Marques): The Weakness of Putin’s Economic Show of Force

•   Bloomberg(Clara Ferreira Marques): Weapons Failures Could Disarm Russian Arms Diplomacy

•   Bloomberg(Adrian Wooldridge): The West Is Facing a Followership Crisis

•   CNN(Joe O'Connor, Juliet Schor): The case for the four-day workweek

•   MarketWatch(Ed Hirs): Gas prices are headed to $6 by Labor Day – here are the main reasons why

•   Fox News(Rebekah Koffler): Bromance? Putin and Kim take on the world, critics fear Ukraine war has boosted alliance