Global Economic Monitor 221110

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: World stocks slip, await CPI, U.S. midterms outcome

※   Market focus turns to key U.S. inflation data on Thursday

※   U.S. Senate control hinges on three races too close to call

※   Bitcoin tumbles further as FTX deal looks tenuous

•   Metals: Copper surrenders gains after hitting two-month peak on Russia news

•   Grains: Wheat drops as USDA raises global supply view, corn retreats

[Indicators]

•   US Sep. Wholesale inventories: U.S. wholesale inventories revised lower in September

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Weekly mortgage demand flattens, as interest rates climb higher to 7.14%

•   Eurozone Oct. Wages: Eurozone wage growth accelerating, job ads show

•   China Oct. CPI, PPI: China Producer Prices Turn Negative in Warning Sign for Global Economy

※   Consumer-price inflation also slowed to a five-month low, a reflection of the economic toll from Covid restrictions and a real-estate slide

•   China Oct. New Yuan loans: China's Oct new yuan loans seen sliding as demand weakens

•   Japan Sep. Current account: Japan's current account surplus falls the most since 2008

•   Russia Oct. CPI: Russian Inflation Dips Again as Risks Mount From Putin’s Call-Up

[World]

•   WSJ: Control of Congress Remains at Stake as Democrats Fend Off Anticipated ‘Red Wave’

※   Republicans gain seats toward narrow House majority, while Senate is a tossup with several races too close to call

•   WSJ: Democrats Hold Off Steep Losses by Driving Turnout and Winning Independent Voters

•   WSJ: Democrats Make Gains in Control of Statehouses

•   WSJ: Key Trump-Backed Candidates Struggled in Midterms as His Party Rivals Won

•   WSJ: Midterm Election Could Make Democrats Latest Governing Party to Pay Price for Inflation

•   WSJ: Biden Celebrates Democrats’ Midterm Election Showing With Eye on 2024

•   WSJ: Georgia Senate Race Headed to Runoff for Second Time in Two Years

•   WSJ: Russia Orders Withdrawal From Kherson, Only Regional Ukrainian Capital It Held

※   Ukrainian forces have advanced town by town on the city in recent weeks, cutting off thousands of Russian troops

•   WSJ: Russia, Iran Pledge to Deepen Ties Amid Ukraine War

•   WSJ: U.S. Plan to Ramp Up Carbon Credits Faces Doubts at COP27

•   WSJ: Europe Doubles Down on Big Government

•   WSJ: Bangladesh, IMF Reach Deal on $4.5 Billion Aid Package

•   WSJ: Binance Walks Away From Deal to Buy FTX

※   Agency focuses on potential securities-law violations by U.S. affiliate

•   WSJ: SEC Expands Investigation Into Crypto Platform FTX

•   WSJ: Crypto Reinvented Centralized Finance—but Forgot the Central Bank

•   WSJ: Some Investors Bet Fed Could Lift Rates to Two-Decade High

•   WSJ: Oil’s Other Strategic Reserve Is Running Low, Too

•   WSJ: Chip-Making Juggernaut TSMC Eyes Multibillion-Dollar Arizona Factory Expansion

•   WSJ: Facebook Parent Meta Announces Layoffs of 11,000 Staff

※   Layoffs are the first broad head-count reduction to occur in the company’s history

•   WSJ: Zuckerberg Didn’t Move Fast, Still Broke Things

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Says Twitter Is Ditching Gray ‘Official’ Check Mark Hours After Launching It

•   WSJ: Entrepreneur Caught in the Middle of U.S.-China Chip War

•   NYT: For Biden, Beating the Odds but Facing a New Challenge

•   NYT: Who’s Driving Climate Change? New Data Catalogs 72,000 Polluters and Counting

•   NYT: China’s Great ‘Zero-Covid’ Guessing Game

•   WP: Why the 2022 election was such a disaster for Trump

•   WP: U.N. climate summit turns awkward for Egypt

•   WP: Weaker-than-expected GOP results calm Europe’s nerves — for now

•   WP: Markets’ Magical Thinking on China Has Extended to the BOJ

•   FT: Germany blocks another Chinese acquisition of a chip company

•   FT: Germany should raise taxes on rich to fund €200bn energy plan, advisers say

•   FT: Brussels must do more to tackle EU energy crisis, says Czech minister

•   FT: Hunt considers cutting threshold on top rate of UK income tax

•   FT: The era of ‘mortgage dominance’

•   FT: What is the UK fiscal hole and what has contributed to it?

•   FT: COP27: Mark Carney clings to his dream of a greener finance industry

•   FT: ‘There was no hope’: Chinese factories struggle to survive

•   FT: Taiwan rallies drone makers to prepare military for China threat

•   FT: Foreign investors shun China stock rally

•   FT: TikTok slashes global revenue targets by at least $2bn

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Williams Says Longer-Run Inflation Expectations Stable

•   Bloomberg: US Inflation to Cool Only Slightly, Keeping Big Fed Hike in Play

•   Bloomberg: Chicago Fed’s Evans Says It’s Time to Slow Pace of Rate Hikes

•   Bloomberg: US, China Meet for Climate Talks as Xie Says Door Is Open

•   Bloomberg: Pandemic Relief Helped Spur the ‘Great Resignation’ in the US, Study Finds

•   Bloomberg: Putin to Skip G-20 Indonesia Summit, Facing Cold Shoulder

•   Bloomberg: France's Economy Seen Dodging Onset of Recession This Year

•   Bloomberg: EU Plans to Outline Gas Price Controls at Meeting on Friday

•   Bloomberg: Euro Area’s Inflation Shock Weighs Most on Poorest Households

•   Bloomberg: BOE’s Forecasts Under Fire From Five Former UK Rate Setters

•   Bloomberg: South Korea’s Deadly Crowd Crush Threatens to Weigh on Fragile Economy

•   Bloomberg: China Property Crisis Puts $1.6 Trillion of LGFV Debt at Risk

•   Bloomberg: China Sees Signs of Liquidity Stress as PBOC Faces Maturity Test

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Credit Ratings May Hinge on BOJ Policy Changes, S&P Says

•   Bloomberg: Disgraced Crypto Moguls Do Kwon and Su Zhu Emerge After FTX Saga

•   Bloomberg: OPEC+ May Need to Rethink Decision to Slash Oil Output, IEA Says

•   Bloomberg: Biden Says Musk’s Ties to Other Nations ‘Worth Being Looked At’

•   Bloomberg: UK Renewables Windfall Tax Risks ‘Disaster’ for Wind Investment

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: A Wageflation Hangover Is Coming for European Companies

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Republican House Would Go After Facebook, Google, Big Tech

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Wage Increases, Labor Strikes May Eat Into European Corporate Profits

•   Reuters: Lawsuit claims Apple, Amazon colluded to raise iPhone, iPad prices

•   Reuters: Richmond Fed's Barkin: Inflation fight "may lead to a downturn"

•   Reuters: Germany's economic council less pessimistic than govt on looming recession -Source

•   Reuters: Exclusive-EU countries, lawmakers likely to clinch deal next week on satellite internet system, sources say

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE US, EU plan new pledge targeting oil and gas methane emissions - document

•   Reuters: India could trim spending for first time in 3 years - sources

•   Reuters: Analysis: Four takeaways from the U.S. midterm elections

[Korea]

•   대통령실: 윤 대통령 “규제혁신, 민간주도 경제로” [2022 중앙포럼]

•   대통령실: 尹, 동남아 순방… 시진핑도 만난다

•   대통령실: [단독]"野 연일 정부 공격하는데 여당 뭐하나" 尹대통령 강한 불만

•   민주당: 대통령실 조사 대상에 적시... 野 '이태원 참사' 국정조사요구서 제출

•   국민의힘: '소득공제 한도 확대' 발표 하루만에…與 '민생 예산' 내홍

•   국민의힘: 與도 납품단가연동제 발의…'예외 조항' 도입 쟁점되나

•   정무위: 2년 만에 다시…'전자 25조 강제매각' 삼성생명법 처리하자는 민주

•   금융위: '라임사태' 손태승 결국 중징계…금융위, 문책경고 확정

•   금융위: 4대은행, 한전에 2조 대출 나서 … 채권시장 교란 차단 안간힘

•   금융위: 자금시장안정 추가 대책 나온다…ABCP 매입 확대 추진

•   금융위: 온라인 예·적금 비교 서비스, 내년 6월부터 가능해진다

•   금감원: [단독] 금감원, 한화證 불완전판매 전수조사... '어린이집 펀드' 관련

•   산은: 돈 쓸 곳은 많은데…산금채 발행은 '눈치' 봐야 하는 산업은행

•   산은: 산업은행, 경제제재 리스크관리 내부통제 장치 마련

•   금투협: “금투업계 규제완화·영역확대” 한목소리

•   금융시장: 원화 강세에 외인·기관 매수 이어져…코스피 2,420대 안착

•   금융시장: "대폭락장 온다" 비관론 비웃는 韓증시...기묘한 강세장, 왜

•   금융시장: 동학개미 울렸던 2022 코스피…2023 바라보는 여의도 시각은

•   금융시장: 한 달간 4.7조 사들인 외국인… 큰 형님 삼성전자만 1조 넘게 ‘베팅’

•   금융시장: 기업들 “단기자금이라도…” CP금리 13년만에 최고치

•   금융시장: 기업들, 은행에 'SOS' 한달새 대출 13조 폭증

•   금융시장: '제2 채안펀드' 10일 출범 9개 대형증권사 SPC 설립

•   금융시장: '금리경쟁' 건전성 악화 우려에도…연일 최고치 찍는 저축은행 금리

•   금융시장: “밥값 5만원도 부담 커요”… 3개월 소액 할부족 급증

•   금융시장: 비은행권 ‘위험 노출 부동산 금융’ 4년새 2배로

•   금융시장: 신한銀 외채 발행 소식에도...금융권, 자금 확보 '쉽지 않네'

•   금융시장: 고금리에 돈맥경화 → 건설사 도산설… ‘112조 PF’ 부실땐 금융권 출렁

•   금융시장: 내년 초 지방 건설사부터 문 닫는다…연쇄도산 ‘괴담’까지 도는 중기업계 [자금경색, 실물경제 위협]

•   금융시장: “코로나 겨우 이겨냈는데”...고물가·고금리에 자영업자 한숨 [자금경색, 실물경제 위협]

•   금융사: 손태승 중징계…우리금융 이사회 "지켜보자"

•   금융사: [단독] "투자자 신뢰 잃으면 끝"…이호진 전 태광 회장이 흥국생명 콜옵션 나선 이유

•   금융사: 韓 상륙하는 애플페이, 삼성페이 아성 무너뜨리나… “찻잔 속 태풍 그칠 것”

•   금융사: 경영승계 막강 권한 가진 BNK금융지주 이사회 구성은?

•   공정위: 공정위, 매장 임차인에 갑질한 스타필드에 과징금 4억5천만원

•   노동연: "기초연금 올리면 노인 노동참여 줄 것"

•   기재위: 법정시한 3주 남았는데…소위다툼에 예산심사 손도 못댔다

•   기재위(강준현): "정부 세제개편시 5년간 지방교부세 22조↓·교육교부금 13조↓"

•   기재위(한병도): 내년 예비비 예산 5.2조 편성… 33.3% ↑

•   통계청: 10월 취업자 67만명 늘어 68%는 60대이상 고령층

•   통계청: 주 36시간 미만 근로 '뉴 노멀' 되나

•   거시경제: 서머스 “국가주의로 가는 중국, 미국 앞설 거란 전망 힘 잃어” [2022 중앙포럼]

•   거시경제: “글로벌 복합위기 시대, 한 방향 정책만 펴선 안 된다” [2022 중앙포럼]

•   산업부: [관가뒷담] 상무관보 감축 논의에… 산업부 ‘뒤숭숭’

•   가스공사: 낙하산 논란에도…가스公 사장에 최연혜 내정

•   한수원: 산업부·한수원, 연말까지 폴란드 원전 개발계획 구체화

•   수소경제위: 수소상용차 2030년 3만대 보급…경제 효과만 47兆 [세계 1위 수소산업 육성]

•   경제단체: 배로 "韓, 2% 성장 힘들 것…과도한 금리인상 자제 필요"

•   경제단체: ‘前정권서 소외’ 반전 노렸던 전경련, 尹대통령 포럼 불참에 낙담했다는데…

•   경제단체: 무역협회 “안전운임제, 수출 어려움 가중… 즉각 폐지돼야”

•   비금융사: 불황 속 파운드리, '6개월 先주문' 급감

•   비금융사: 韓 시스템반도체 파고든 대만·中…3분기 반도체 수입 50% 급증

•   비금융사: 스마트폰 AP 시장 재편, 삼성전자 설 자리 점점 좁아진다

•   비금융사: 삼성전자, 美 테일러 파운드리 신공장 순항…2024년 11월 완공 목표

•   비금융사: 가전시장, 3년 만에 역성장...소비 '꽁꽁'

•   비금융사: 네카오 '배보다 큰 배꼽'…올 매출 22% 늘때 인건비는 26% 증가

•   비금융사: 해운운임, 넉달 만에 3분의 1 토막… 먹구름 짙어진다

•   비금융사: 환경규제 내년부터 시행인데… 기준 충족하는 LPG운반선 ‘0’

•   비금융사: 수주 1위 中에 내줘도 수주잔고·LNG선 계약은 韓이 압도

•   비금융사: '미래 실적' 당겨쓴 제조 기업들, 눈덩이 재고에 경영관리 비상

•   비금융사: 한달 새 1조 투입…롯데그룹 유동성 블랙홀 된 롯데건설

•   국토부: [단독] 정부, 내일 부동산 규제 완화 방안 발표… DSR 규제는 유지

•   부동산시장: 부동산 '거래절벽'에 증여 비중만 확 늘었다

•   부동산시장: "시공사 어디 없소"…강북 노른자위 재개발도 유찰

•   부동산시장: 규제지역 해제에 지방 분양전망 소폭 회복

•   고용부: 10개업종 중 8개업종 채용 '뚝'…고용쇼크 시작됐다

•   고용부: 중대재해 10건 중 1건은 공공부문서 발생…비정규직·하청 집중

•   환경부: 택배용 전기차 전환 의무화 2년 유예 추진

•   외교통상: "IRA 예산 폐기" 벼르는 공화당…한국 車업계 숨통 트이나

•   행안부: 제2의 '레고랜드' 사태 선제 대응…행안부 "내년 1분기 만기 지방채 2.7조 상환"

•   경찰: [단독] '보고서 삭제 지시' 윗선 정황…줄줄이 대기발령

•   법원: 한주 앞으로 다가온 '2천억 통상임금 소송'…폭풍전야 금호타이어

•   법률회사: 민주당 인사 나섰던 이태원 참사 희생자 ‘국가배상’ 집단소송…하루만에 철회

•   해수부: 물류·제조 결합 막는 규제 풀어…로테르담처럼 '고부가 항만' 만든다

•   질병관리청: 이틀 연속 6만명대 확진, 사망 급증… 방역 당국 “겨울철 재유행” 공식화

•   서울시: 목동 5만3천가구 '미니신도시' 변신

•   서울시: [단독] 세월호 계기 '골든타임 매뉴얼' 만들고도... 경찰 등 無협조에 참사 반복

•   용산구: 핼러윈 행사 30명 투입한다던 용산구…참사 당일 고작 8명 근무

•   용산구: [단독] 참사 9일 만에...용산구청, 불법 건축물 뒷북 고발

•   도봉구: “창동일대 중심 新경제도시 조성할 것”

•   강원도: 강원도·GJC, 도의회서 삼자대면…레고랜드 사태 입장차 여전

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Barry Eichengreen): The Trilemma of Central Bank Digital Currencies

•   Project Syndicate(Daniel Gros): The Fiscal Cost of Quantitative Easing

•   Project Syndicate(Ana Palacio): The Arctic Heats Up

•   Project Syndicate(Taqadum Al-Khatib): Greenwashing Tyranny at COP27

•   Project Syndicate(Tony Blair): COP27 Is About Africa and Action

•   FT(Editorial Board): Midterms offer a glimmer of hope for US democracy

•   FT(Edward Luce): Biden defies low expectations as red ‘tsunami’ collapses

•   FT(Edward Luce): Biden is still Trump’s worst nightmare

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Bank man, fried

•   FT(Cat Rutter Pooley): Homeowners are not the only ones hurt by the mortgage mess

•   FT(Roger Pardo-Maurer): Putin’s nuclear threats may hint at an electromagnetic pulse strike

•   WSJ(Mike Pence): My Last Days With Donald Trump

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Biden Wins!

•   WSJ(Michael Doran, Can Kasapoğlu): Iran’s Ballistic Missiles and the Folly of Appeasement

•   WSJ(Dave Seminara): DeSantis Is a Winner. What Does That Mean for Trump in 2024?

•   NYT(Suki Kim): The Immensity of Seoul’s Sadness

•   WP(Max Boot): Why the Russian retreat from Kherson is so significant

•   WP(E.J. Dionne Jr.): The GOP offered rage and Trump. The country said no.

•   WP(Jason Willick): The 2024 Republican presidential primary opens with a DeSantis victory

•   WP(David Byler): The 2022 election results tell us nothing about 2024

•   WP(Karen Tumulty): The expected red wave looks more like a puddle

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Don’t Count on the Usual Post-Midterm Stock Rally

•   Bloomberg(Andy Mukherjee): FTX’s Sudden Unraveling May Allow DeFi to Grow

•   Bloomberg(Julian Lee): There Aren’t Enough Ships to Carry Russia’s Crude

•   Bloomberg(Francis Wilkinson): Who Won Midterm Elections? Democracy Did, But Trumpism Didn’t Lose

•   Bloomberg(Timothy L. O'Brien): Trumpism Is a Dish Republicans Can Serve Without Trump

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): Red Wave or Not at the Midterms, the US Is Becoming Weimar America

•   Bloomberg(Leonid Bershidsky): Russia’s Opposition Has No Realistic Plans for Ending Putin's War

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•   서울(사설): 대출원리금 못 갚는 120만명 면밀하게 보듬길

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