Global Economic Monitor 220429

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global shares rise as earnings boost, U.S. dollar hits 20-year high

※   Europe's STOXX 600 rises off Tuesday's six-week low

※   Meta's rally boosts U.S. shares

※   Dovish BOJ pounds yen to 20-yr low of 131/dollar

•   Metals: Copper hits near three-month low on growth fears

•   Grains: US corn edges higher as traders eye Midwest weather

•   한국: 코스피, 원화 약세에도 기업 실적 호조에 1% 상승…2,660대

•   한국: "10만전자 간다"라지만….사상최대 실적에도 주가 또 하락

•   한국: 원·달러 환율 1270원 돌파…엔·달러는 130엔도 뚫어

[Indicators]

•   US Q1 GDP: U.S. GDP Falls 1.4% as Economy Shrinks for First Time Since Early in Pandemic

※   Supply disruptions weighed on the economy, but consumers and businesses continue to spend

※   BEA: Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

※   WSJ: The GDP Mirage

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: Jobless Claims Fell Last Week Amid Tight Labor Market

•   Germany Apr.CPI : German Inflation Quickens to Record on Fallout From War

•   Japan Benchmark rate: Yen Hits New 20-Year Low After Bank of Japan Reinforces Low-Rate Policy

※   Central bank Gov. Kuroda, bucking U.S. trend, says he is ‘patiently continuing monetary easing’

※   BOJ: Statement on Monetary Policy

※   WSJ: BOJ Gov. Kuroda Says Weak Yen Is Positive for Japan’s Economy

•   Japan Mar. Industrial production: Japan's FY 2021 industrial output grows record 5.8%

•   India Q4 Employment: Govt survey: Formal sector employment jumps by 0.4 million in Q3FY22

•   한국 3월 교역조건: 에너지 가격 급등에 교역조건 또 악화…4월 무역적자 ‘비상’

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): [아파트 시황] 서울 아파트값 3주째 '제자리걸음'

[News]

•   WSJ: Russia Making Slow Progress in Bid to Cut Off Ukrainian Forces

※   Biden seeks $33 billion for weapons and economic aid for Kyiv, which says Russia is suffering heavy losses

•   WSJ: Biden Asks Congress for $33 Billion to Support Ukraine

※   Package includes $20 billion in military and security assistance to maintain flow of weapons and ammunition to Kyiv

•   WSJ: U.S. Efforts to Arm Ukraine Shine Light on Limited Production Lines

•   WSJ: Ukraine Brings First War-Crimes Charges Against Russian Soldiers in Bucha

•   WSJ: After Russian Retreat, Ukraine’s Farmers Discover Fields Full of Mines

•   WSJ: Moderna Asks FDA to Clear Its Covid Vaccine for Kids Under 6

•   WSJ: Shareholder Proposals to Broaden Access to Covid-19 Vaccines Rejected

•   WSJ: Germany Drops Opposition to Embargo on Russian Oil

•   WSJ: As Europe Thirsts for Natural Gas, U.S., EU Signal Support for Long-Term Deals

•   WSJ: Oil Middlemen Fueled Putin’s War Machine. Now They’re Getting Out.

•   WSJ: The Permian Basin Oil Field Is Running Out of Workers, Materials—and Cash

•   WSJ: Amazon Posts First Quarterly Loss Since 2015 as Costs, Rivian Stake Weigh on Results

※   Tech giant has seen a shopping slump and cost increases due to inflation, labor issues and supply chain challenges

•   WSJ: Apple Reports Higher Revenue, Earnings

※   Company posts upbeat results, but CEO Tim Cook warns of a range of supply-chain challenges

•   WSJ: Intel CEO Sees Chip Shortage Lasting Into 2024

•   WSJ: Elon Musk’s Twitter Funding Puts More of His Tesla Holdings at Risk

•   WSJ: The Case for Taking the ‘G’ Out of ESG

•   WSJ: China’s BYD Widens Lead on Chinese EV Rivals

•   NYT: Fears Are Mounting That Ukraine War Will Spill Across Borders

•   NYT: Congress Clears Bill to Allow Lending Arms to Ukraine

•   NYT: Are Traditional Political Parties Dead in France?

•   NYT: The Extreme Heat Pummeling India and Pakistan Is About to Get Worse

•   NYT: An Unsteady Moment for Tech

•   FT: Russian gas payment demands in ‘breach’ of sanctions, EU warns

•   FT: EU takes bulk of €63bn in Russian fossil fuel exports during Ukraine war

•   FT: ECB issues mea culpa for poor inflation forecasts

※   ECB: What explains recent errors in the inflation projections of Eurosystem and ECB staff?

•   FT: Brussels decides to watch and wait as Britain squares up to Europe

•   FT: UK plans for Northern Ireland stoke Treasury fears of EU trade war

•   FT: Rishi Sunak hints at U-turn on UK windfall tax for oil and gas industry

•   FT: China’s Covid travel restrictions compound economic pain

•   FT: China in ‘deep crisis’, says Hong Kong private equity chief

•   FT: Turkey’s Erdogan hopes for ‘new era’ in relations with Saudi Arabia

•   FT: Putin’s booby-trapped bonds

•   FT: Beijing grants first driverless robotaxi licenses to Baidu and Pony.ai

•   FT: Volvo looks beyond China for car parts as lockdowns spread

•   Bloomberg: Biden’s Ukraine Aid Risks Slowdown as GOP Balks at Covid Tie-In

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Defends Biden Stimulus in Face of Inflation Criticism

•   Bloomberg: Biden Hears ‘Stagflation’ Cry, Answers With ‘Technical Factors’

•   Bloomberg: Americans More Pessimistic About Finances as Inflation Hits Home

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Views of China Worsen as Xi Maintains Ties With Russia

•   Bloomberg: War Forces Germany to Put G-7 Coal Phaseout Push on Hold

•   Bloomberg: Germany Closer to Backing EU Push to Sanction Russia’s Sberbank

•   Bloomberg: Xi in a Bind Over Who to Blame for Shanghai’s Covid Outbreak

•   Bloomberg: China Faces Bleak Holiday Season as Covid Zero Disrupts Travel

•   Bloomberg: China’s Sudden Currency Plunge Raises Risk of a 2015-Style Panic

•   Bloomberg: China Cities Toughen Covid Steps to Avoid Shanghai’s Woes

•   Bloomberg: China Cuts Coal Import Tariffs to Zero to Increase Supply

•   Bloomberg: Taiwan’s Covid Cases Soar Past 10,000 in Test of Safe Haven

•   Bloomberg: Economists See India Raising Rates Sooner to Counter Inflation

•   Bloomberg: Mideast Helps Europe Fill Diesel Void as Russian Flows Slump

•   Bloomberg: South African Power Program Faces Fresh Legal Challenge

•   Bloomberg: Investor Who Called Housing Top and Bottom Says It's Time to Sell

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Sees Yen Falling Further With or Without Intervention

•   Bloomberg: Yen Traders Brace for Choppy Holiday Week With Fed Poised to Act

•   Bloomberg: Yen’s Historic Fall Signals Rewrite of Global Currency Playbook

•   Bloomberg: Japan Warns on Yen After BOJ’s Bond Vow Sparks Slide Past 131

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Sees Yen Falling Further With or Without Intervention

•   Bloomberg: Cash Pouring Into ESG Debt Seen Suppressing Green Bond Yields

•   Bloomberg: ‘Dollar Is King’ Mantra Rings Across Currencies as Yen Drops

•   Bloomberg: Spain’s Switch to Latin American Grain Offsets Ukraine War Impact

•   Bloomberg: The Messy Irony Behind Indonesia’s Move to Ban Palm Oil Exports

•   Bloomberg: Flood of Discounted LNG Stretches Europe’s Gas Terminals

•   Bloomberg: Global Chipmakers Assessing India Plant Locations, Minister Says

•   Bloomberg: SoftBank’s Vision Fund Finally Devotes More of Its Cash to Japan

•   Bloomberg: How Russia’s War Disrupts Industries’ Emission Cuts

•   Reuters: NATO says it's ready to back Kyiv for years in war against Russia

•   Reuters: Indonesian president's approval ratings buoyed by palm export ban

•   Reuters: Africa's most vulnerable hit by Russia's war in Ukraine, says IMF

•   Reuters: Iran moves centrifuge-parts workshop underground at Natanz, IAEA says

•   Reuters: U.S. solar industry warns of slowdown due to supply chain disruptions, tariff uncertainty

•   Reuters: WHO-backed vaccine resolution wins 24% support at Moderna

•   Reuters: China's Huawei posts Q1 revenue drop, says handsets now more available

•   Reuters: Analysis: Hobbled by economy, Erdogan heads to Saudi to mend ties after Khashoggi U-turn

•   Reuters: Analysis: China struggles for options as COVID threatens economic goals

•   Reuters: Analysis: Economic growth risks jolt inflation-obsessed markets

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. bond investors worry deep slide will end 40-year bull market

•   AP: EXPLAINER: Why US needs a law to sell off oligarchs’ assets

•   CNBC: ECB member says rate hike may come during third quarter as euro hits five-year low

•   CNBC: Russia’s halt of European gas could see ‘catastrophic’ winter pricing, veteran trader warns

•   CNBC: Russia’s war is threatening the Middle East’s food security — sparking warnings of riots, famine, and mass migration

•   CNBC: Qualcomm CEO explains why the chipmaker’s automotive push is thriving

•   SCMP: China jobs: employment being ‘hit quite hard’ by coronavirus, Beijing pledges support

•   SCMP: Taiwan’s invitation to White House internet event likely to trigger angry response to Beijing

•   SCMP: China’s manufacturers remain key to global supply chain, producers ‘ even more dependent’ on world’s factory

•   SCMP: China hits back at Australia over Solomon Islands ‘red line’, saying ‘the Pacific is not someone’s backyard’

•   SCMP: Hong Kong-South Korea economic ties set for a ‘boost’ under world’s largest trade pact

•   SCMP: China urged to give cash handouts, as its economy and most vulnerable citizens are desperate for a lifeline

•   Global Times: Shanghai port reports 8.14% jump in Q1 throughput, but virus impact looms large in April

•   Caixin: Covid Disruptions Hammer China’s Auto Industry Profits

•   Nikkei Asia: Germany, Japan tap hydrogen to reduce Russia dependence

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan auto parts makers diversify supply chain to North Africa

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan gears up for bustling holiday despite COVID uptick

•   Nikkei Asia: Ditch the driver: U.S. and China race to make self-driving taxis a reality

•   Nikkei Asia: What it's like to ride first and only public robotaxi in U.S.

•   매경(P1): 태양광 생산 넘쳐, 툭하면 강제 중단

•   매경: 기업 적은 호남에 태양광 '왕창'…전기 남아 발전소 멈출 판

•   매경: 인수위 "원전 확대하고 신재생 묻지마 보급 안하겠다"

•   매경(P1): 내달 방한 바이든, 삼성전자 평택공장 간다

•   매경(P1): [알립니다] '용산 르네상스' 열린다

•   매경: 전문가 43% "용산 도심개발 성공할것"…땅값상승·교통난은 부담

•   매경: [단독] 尹 취임직후 '1기신도시 TF' 띄운다

•   매경: [단독] 폐지론 무성했던 '온플법' 존치 가닥

•   매경: 4명중 3명 "양도세 중과 유예, 다주택자 매물 내놓는 효과 있다"

•   매경: 올해도 넘치는 세수…2차 추경때 적극 투입

•   매경: LG전자, 공급망 충격 딛고 최대매출 '뚝심'

•   매경: 삼성SDI, 배터리 3사중 최대 영업이익

•   매경: 일본의 반성 "현대차, 언제 이렇게 컸나"…뒤늦게 전기차 본격 시동

•   매경: 최태원 "탄소중립은 경제도약 기회"

•   매경: 또 1년 늦춰진 대기업 중고차 진출

•   매경: [단독] 빚 1000만원에도 쓰러진다…개인파산 10명중 4명 노인

•   한경(P1): 전력 판매시장 개방…한전 독점 구조 깬다

•   한경: 인수위 "연료비 원가 반영하겠다"…하반기 전기요금 오를 듯

•   한경: 전셋값 10년간 72% 뛰었는데…주거비 5.7% 줄었다는 KDI

•   한경: 네이버, 텍스트·이미지 조합해 맞춤검색

•   한경: "삼성전자 '세계 최초' 일낸다"…TSMC 넘어설 '비장의 카드'

•   서경(P1): [국가硏 기업가정신 토크콘서트 ●KIST] "수십년째 말로만 변화…산학연 혁신 실행할때"

•   조선(P1): 인수위 만류에도… 야외 마스크 내주 벗는다

•   조선(P1): 대만 반도체의 힘… 증시 시총도 한국 제쳤다

•   조선: 반도체 전사 年1만 양병… ‘실리콘 방패’로 경제·안보 지킨다

•   조선: 반도체 인재가뭄 심각한 한국… 인수위 “대학 정원규제 풀겠다”

•   조선: 대만, 美·日과는 반도체 동맹 강화

•   조선: [WEEKLY BIZ] 국가부도의 날...약한 나라들이 소리없이 쓰러진다

•   조선: ‘반도체의 법칙’ 수퍼사이클이 흔들린다

•   조선비즈: 러 언론 “현대차 러시아서 車 조립 계속”…현대차는 “사실 무근”

•   조선비즈: [2022 금융포럼] 제프리 삭스 美 컬럼비아대 교수 “기후변화 속도 더 빨라져... 인류가 대응할 시간 줄었다”

•   조선비즈: 尹당선인, 내년 1월 스위스 ‘다보스 포럼’ 참석한다

•   조선비즈: ‘134개→100개’ 카카오, 계열사 정리 나섰지만… 자회사 “업무효율 떨어져”

•   조선비즈: ‘脫탈원전’ 준비하는 건설업계… 원전해체·SMR 선점 시동

•   조선비즈: [세종풍향계] 원희룡表 부동산 정책은 무엇?…신상해명 ‘올인’ 청문회 대응에 속타는 국토부

•   인베스트조선: 삼성전자, 14조원 벌어도 신저가…끝없는 메모리 '눈치게임'

•   동아(P1): [단독]바이든 한국서 中견제 연설… 다음달 21일 한미정상회담

•   동아: [단독]바이든, 亞 첫순방 한국서 中견제 행보… 尹과 용산집무실 회담 검토

•   동아: 바이든-재계 만남 누가 주도? 상의-전경련-경총 ‘맏형’ 경쟁

•   문화: [단독]택시대란에… 서울시 ‘지하철 심야연장’ 재개 추진

•   문화: “최저임금 영향률 증가, 고용에 부정적”

•   한국(P1): 550만 소상공인 54조 손실 추계… 새 정부서 피해규모 따라 '차등 지급'

•   국민: 떠나는 이동걸 産銀회장, 후임은 정치인 출신?

•   국민: [관가뒷담] 정권 교체기 예산실장 낙마 ‘징크스’ 깨지나

•   국민: 바다를 달리는‘자율운항선’… 시장 패권 ‘표준’에 달렸다

•   한겨레: 가계빚 잡겠다더니 대출 확대?…인수위 “DSR도 완화 검토”

•   경향: 인수위, 재계 주장대로 ‘원전 투자’를 친환경으로 분류

•   머니투데이(P1): "지정학 시대의 귀환…선제적으로 예측하고 대응하라"

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 긴축에 숨죽인 회사채 시장… 자금조달 속도 내는 기업들

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 후판 가격, 인상에 무게… 조선업계 "신조선가 오를 수밖에"

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 선박용 소형모듈원자로 개발 나선다

•   아시아경제(P1): 尹정부, 곡물 특화 비축기지 만든다…'식량안보' 방점

•   이데일리(P1): 시장규모 1200조…보험도 코인도 못맡기는 신탁

•   이데일리(P1): '매출 78조·영업익 14조' 축포 쐈지만…삼성전자 미래 어둡다

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 4만9565명 확진…어제보다 6450명 적어

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성 파운드리 "향후 5년간 수주잔액 200兆"

•   전자신문(P1): 인수위, "전력시장 '한전' 독점 구조 깨야"

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Andrés Velasco, Marcelo Tokman): How to Get by Without Russian Gas

•   Project Syndicate(Howard Davies): Will Western Sanctions Change the Global Financial System?

•   Project Syndicate(Takatoshi Ito): Where Are America’s Red Lines in East Asia?

•   Project Syndicate(Oleksandra Matviichuk): Ukraine’s Fight Is the World’s Fight

•   FT(Gillian Tett): Tankers of Russian oil a prime target for western sanctions

•   FT(Edward Luce): The return of the 20th century’s nuclear shadow

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): How to be smart about Russian energy sanctions

•   FT(Chris Giles): Weaning ourselves off Russian gas starts on the home front

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Archegos and the efficient markets hypothesis

•   FT(William Wright): Time to start afresh on reviving UK markets

•   FT(Kristina Spohr): Putin’s war backfires on Russia by reviving the west

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Russia’s Energy Extortion of Poland and Bulgaria

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Tax Increases Won’t Cure Inflation

•   WSJ(Alan S. Blinder): If We Get a Recession in 2022 or 2023, It’ll Be a Mild One

•   WSJ(Peggy Noonan): Putin Really May Break the Nuclear Taboo in Ukraine

•   WSJ(Sadanand Dhume): Russia Can’t Depend on India Either

•   WSJ(Eyck Freymann): Xi Jinping Is Betting It All on Zero Covid

•   NYT(Jamie Martin): The U.S. Wants to Tackle Inflation. Here’s Why That Should Worry the Rest of the World.

•   WP(Editorial Board): Russian aggression may have a new target

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): To avoid recession, everything needed to go right. It hasn’t.

•   WP(David Ignatius): The Pentagon plans anew to head off an old worry: nuclear war

•   WP(Josh Rogin): Kim Jong Un is adopting Putin’s Ukraine playbook

•   WP(Daniel W. Drezner): Sanctioning Russia and the future of the dollar

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Bipartisan Innovation Act Shouldn't Cast a Pall on U.S. Investment in China

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss, Gearoid Reidy): The BOJ Doubles Down on a Weakening Yen

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): Economists See India Raising Rates Sooner to Counter Inflation

•   Bloomberg(Gary Shilling): Dismal GDP Report Raises the Odds of a Recession This Year

•   Bloomberg(James Stavridis): China Scores a Victory In the New Battle of the South Pacific

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): Putin Is Losing So Here’s How He’ll Make the War Worse

•   Bloomberg(Leonid Bershidsky): Putin’s Autarky Choice Is Between Stalin and Hitler

•   Bloomberg(Bobby Ghosh): The U.S. and Saudi Arabia Can’t Remain at Odds Forever

•   Bloomberg(Natalie Leonard): The IMF Has Finally Dumped a Damaging Orthodoxy

•   CNN(Mark Wolfe): Struggling US families face a wave of power shutoffs if Congress doesn't act

•   CNBC(Espen Barth Eide, Fatih Birol): Russia’s war on Ukraine shows the urgent need to move away from fossil fuels as fast as possible

•   MarketWatch(Rex Nutting): There’s a big hole in the Fed’s theory of inflation—incomes are falling at a record 10.9% rate

•   Nikkei Asia(Tetsushi Takahashi): Halting yen slide is Japan's problem in chaotic global economy