Global Economic Monitor 220406

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks fall, bond yields and dollar gain after hawkish Fed comments

•   Russia: Russia Five-Year Default Risk Jumps to 87.7% After U.S. Ban

•   Metals: Copper touches four-week peak on supply concerns

•   Grains: Chicago wheat firmer on US wheat decline

•   한국: 코스피 0.05% 상승…FOMC 의사록·실적시즌 관망

•   한국: 국고채 금리 연고점 또 경신…가계·기업 비상

[Indicators]

•   US Feb. Balance of trade: U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in February

•   US Mar. Services PMI(ISM): U.S. Services Growth Improves as ISM’s March Gauge Climbs to 58.3

※   ISM measure rose to 58.3 in March, first gain in four months

•   UK Mar. Car sales: UK new car sales fall to lowest level since 1998 as chip shortage bites

•   Japan Feb. Household spending: Japan's Feb. household spending rises 1.1% on year but recovery weak

•   한국 2월 토지매매: 토지 시장도 ‘거래절벽’… 1년 새 거래량 32% 감소

•   한국 3월 CPI: '4.1%' 불붙은 물가…3월 물가 10년3개월 만에 최고

※   매경: 구내식당 왜 북적이나 했더니…"점심 뭘 먹어도 1만원 넘어"

※   조선비즈: “추경 앞두고 잇따른 금리발작”…4%대 물가에 난감한 尹인수위

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Zelensky Calls for Removing Russia From U.N. Security Council After Alleged War Crimes

※   Ukrainian president says newly discovered atrocities could be worse than those in Bucha

•   WSJ: U.S., EU to Impose More Sanctions on Russia After War-Crimes Reports

※   Proposed EU measures include ban on imports of Russian coal while U.S. plans ban on all new investment in Russia

•   WSJ: Russian Sanctions Created a New World—And It Can’t Be Undone

•   WSJ: Biden Administration Stymies Russia Debt Payments

※   The U.S. Treasury had previously granted special exemptions allowing the Kremlin to tap accounts at U.S. banks to repay its debts

•   WSJ: Ukraine Quietly Receives Tanks From Czech Republic to Support War Effort

•   WSJ: Putin’s Daughters Face Possible EU Sanctions Over Ukraine Invasion

•   WSJ: Ukraine War Sanctions Hit Home for Everyday Russians

•   WSJ: Fed’s Brainard Says Reducing Elevated Inflation ‘Is of Paramount Importance’

※   Central bank official previews plans for significant decline in Fed bondholdings beginning next month

•   WSJ: Fed’s Mary Daly Supports Tighter Policy, Doesn’t Expect Recession

•   WSJ: Omicron BA.2 Variant Pressures Parts of U.S.

•   WSJ: Add Declining Immigration to Problems Weighing on the Labor Market

•   WSJ: Already Stalled In U.S., Global Minimum Tax Hits European Roadblock

•   WSJ: Some Chinese Companies Find Workaround to Avoid U.S. Delisting

•   WSJ: U.S. Wants More Oil From Canada but Not a New Pipeline to Bring It

•   WSJ: Elon Musk to Join Twitter’s Board of Directors After Becoming Largest Shareholder

•   WSJ: GM and Honda Plan to Co-Develop Affordable EVs

•   WSJ: Amazon to Spend Billions on Space Launches as SpaceX Ramps Up Satellite-Internet Service

•   WSJ: The Earnings Squeeze Is Here

•   NYT: The U.S. Economy Is Booming. So Why Are Economists Worrying About a Recession?

•   NYT: Why Germany Can’t Just Pull the Plug on Russian Energy

•   NYT: ‘Russia Is Half of Our Business.’ Or It Was.

•   NYT: For Macron, France’s Troubled Industries Hit Home

•   NYT: How America Watches for a Nuclear Strike

•   WP: Could prosecutors convince a jury that Trump knew he lost in 2020?

•   WP: Hybrid work for many is messy and exhausting

•   FT: Inflationary forces spell long-term trouble for central banks, warns BIS head

•   FT: Brussels ratchets up pressure on Budapest over alleged corruption

•   FT: Rising Le Pen energises final stretch of France’s presidential campaign

•   FT: Le Pen’s poll surge rattles French bonds and bank stocks

•   FT: Poland blocks EU move to sign up to minimum corporate tax

•   FT: US oil demand stays afloat despite soaring prices

•   FT: Evergrande agrees to pay advisory fees to international bondholders

•   FT: Why Chinese driverless car company AutoX disengaged its safety features

•   Bloomberg: G-20 Wrestles With Response If Putin Shows Up at Bali Summit

•   Bloomberg: U.S., U.K. and Australia Plan to Develop Hypersonic Weapons

※   White House: FACT SHEET: Implementation of the Australia – United Kingdom – United States Partnership (AUKUS)

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s George Says Rate-Hike Debate Must Include Balance Sheet

•   Bloomberg: Deutsche Bank Predicts U.S. Recession in ‘23 as Fed Boosts Rates

•   Bloomberg: Banking Chair Pushing to Confirm All Four Fed Nominees This Week

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Isn’t Seeking a ‘Divorce’ From China, Trade Chief Says

•   Bloomberg: Biden’s Battery Metals Boost Could Ease U.S. Dependence On China

•   Bloomberg: Draghi Plans 10 Billion Euros of Fresh Debt as Cost of War Soars

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Lane Sees Inflation Peaking by Mid-Year: Antenna TV

•   Bloomberg: World Bank Cuts East Asia GDP Growth Forecasts, Warns of Risks

※   World Bank: East Asia and Pacific Economic Recovery Faces Risks from the War in Ukraine, U.S. Monetary Tightening, and China Slowdown

•   Bloomberg: BOJ’s Kuroda Looks to Slow Yen Moves With Verbal Intervention

•   Bloomberg: Top Arab Economies Dodge Stagflation Thanks to Strong Demand

•   Bloomberg: Petrobras’s Turmoil Is a Prelude to Brazil’s Presidential Brawl

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Gets Final Wave of Crucial Russian Fertilizer Shipments

•   Bloomberg: Peru Imposes Curfew in Lima as Violent Inflation Protests Spread

•   Bloomberg: Sri Lanka Revokes Emergency With Rajapaksa Facing Calls to Quit

•   Bloomberg: Cost Pressures From Ukraine War Hit African Economies, Data Show

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Drones for Ukraine Will Include Latest Tank Killers

•   Bloomberg: Wait Times for Chips Grow Again in March as Shortages Drag On

•   Bloomberg: Intel CEO Visiting Taiwan and Japan in Tour of Asian Suppliers

•   Bloomberg: Biden Hasn’t Done Anything to Help Renewables, Solar CEO Says

•   Bloomberg: India Needs $12.4 Trillion for Net-Zero Transition, Report Says

•   Bloomberg: Money Pouring Into Fossil Fuels Risks Climate Disaster

•   Reuters: NATO says Russia regrouping to try to take Ukraine's Donbas

•   Reuters: Russia expects to earn $9.6 billion more in April due to high oil prices

•   Reuters: ECB could raise interest rates back to zero this year - Wunsch

•   Reuters: On hypersonic weapons deal, China warns against fueling a crisis

•   Reuters: Emerging markets suffer $9.8 billion outflow in March with big hit to China

•   Reuters: Global bond sales to cross $10 trillion in 2022, S&P Global Ratings says

•   Reuters: Analysis: Bolsonaro's party grows as center-right rivals stumble into Brazil campaign season

•   SCMP: China unlikely to be Ukraine’s security guarantor, diplomatic observers say

•   SCMP: Taiwan looks at tunnel bunker as emergency wartime military command centre

•   SCMP: Fifty years later, despite US pivot, Taiwan has done well economically

•   SCMP: China’s lockdowns drive up freight costs as zero-Covid rules bite trucking operations

•   SCMP: China food security: farmers in Jilin leave fields fallow as lockdown threatens corn supply

•   SCMP: Indonesians are growing wary of China and want to contain its rise, survey finds

•   Caixin: Shanghai’s Daily Covid Cases Approach Wuhan’s Peak

•   매경(P1): [단독] ‘반값 분양’ 시세차익 입주자 몫 늘린다

•   매경(P1): 돈 때문에 안 낳는줄 알았는데…고소득일수록 "출산 안해"

※   신한은행: 『2022 보통사람 금융생활 보고서』

•   매경: 상·하위 20% 소득격차 5.23배…4년래 최대 수준

•   매경: "40대인가요? 노후준비 됐나요?"…85%는 "은퇴 이후 막막"

•   매경: 집콕 직격탄…자영업 소득 1천만원 뚝

•   매경: 2030 '영끌' 할 만했네…평균집값 1년새 3억6천 → 5억 '껑충'

•   매경(P1): 세계최대 무역항 마비…상하이發 물류대란

•   매경: 꽉막힌 물류운송…상하이 바다 선박 300척 대기, 항공기도 못구해

•   매경: 공장 멈춘 농심·오리온 "재고로 버텨…봉쇄 장기화 대비"

•   매경: 네이버, 내달부터 근로시간 초과 직원 회사 PC 접속 차단

•   매경: 비서실장에 경제전문가 물색…인선 진통

•   매경: [단독] 중기부 아래 있는 동반성장위, 대통령 직속 상생위로 격상

•   매경: 작년 전기차 666만대 팔려…테슬라 압도적 1위, 현대차기아는?

•   매경: 삼성에 질세라 LG도 뛰어들었다…"40조 키오스크 시장 잡자"

•   매경: [단독] LG엔솔, GM과 배터리 분석자료 공유

•   매경: 평생연금, 점심값 2만5천원…이정도면 중소기업 다닐만 하겠네

•   매경: "상속세 OECD 수준 완화를"…중견련, 인수위에 혁신 제언

•   매경: 가을에 백신 또 맞나…당국, 접종 검토

•   한경(P1): '2050년 신재생 70%' 폐기…윤석열, 에너지정책 새 판 짠다

•   한경(P1): 무섭게 줄었다…설비투자 '반토막'

•   한경: "초대형 위기 닥치는데 투자는 무슨…" 기업들 '초비상'

•   한경: 무역수지도 적자…성장률 3% 빨간불

•   한경: 전·현직 경제학회장 한목소리 "새정부, 불확실성 덜어줘라"

•   한경(P1): [모십니다] 국내 최대 ICT 전시회 '월드IT쇼'

•   한경: 한덕수 "최저임금 너무 오르면 루즈-루즈 게임"

•   한경: 대기업 대출 86조…2년 만에 최대

•   서경(P1): 박진 "한미, 포괄적 전략동맹 격상에 공감대"

•   서경(P1): [단독] 인수위, 기초연금액 산정방식 바꾼다

•   서경(P1): 펑펑 쓰더니…국가부채 2200조

※   기재부: 2021회계연도 국가결산 등 국무회의 심의 의결

•   서경: 지난해 세수호황에도 90兆 적자…국가부채 증가율 OECD 1위

•   서경: 추경 가용 세계잉여금 3.3兆뿐…결국 국채 발행하나

•   서경: 공무원·군인연금 나갈 돈만 1138兆

•   서경: "취약층 위한 추경, 고물가 부메랑 될수도…전면 재검토 필요"

•   서경: 국내 유니콘 기업 20곳 육박하는데…AI 유니콘은 여전히 ‘0’

•   서경: 유통·정유 '맑음' 車부품 '흐림'…업종 기상도 원자재가 갈랐다

•   서경: 인수위 '재초환' 손질…부담금 폭탄 사라지나

•   서경: "욕 먹는데 월급 200만원"…9급 공무원 경쟁률 30년만에 최저

•   조선(P1): 경제부총리에 추경호 내정

•   조선: 저가폰은 옛말, 중국 고급폰이 치고나온다

•   조선: IT 개발자들 대부분 고연봉? 절반 이상이 4000만원 이하

•   조선: “원자재값 하반기엔 안정” 무역협회 “전쟁영향 줄어들 것”

※   국제무역통상연구원: 주요 원자재 공급 구조 분석 및 가격 상승의 영향

•   조선: 文 정부 전셋값 40% 급등… 임대차 3법 후 상승 폭 6배로 커져

•   조선: 5000억은 필요한데… 큰손은 안보이는 쌍용차 인수戰

•   조선: 푸틴 때문에… 시장 전집·튀김집이 운다

•   조선비즈: 2030 ‘영끌’ 확 줄었다... 대출 규제 완화해도 ‘재점화’ 없을 듯

•   조선비즈: 삼성 非메모리 구원투수 ‘이미지센서’… 점유율 30% 찍고 1위 소니 맹추격

•   인베스트조선: '경영 진단' 받은 파운드리보다 전망 더 불안한 삼성전자 시스템LSI

•   중앙: [단독] 재감염 0.0018%? 당국도 못믿어 1400만명 전면 재조사

•   중앙: “우크라 전쟁은 LNG 전쟁…길어질수록 美·中 웃지만 한국 피해"

•   동아(P1): [단독]靑 정책실장-일자리수석-민정수석 없앤다

•   동아: [단독]첫 내각에 정치인 5명 안팎… 외교-국토-행안장관, 현직 의원 가닥

•   문화(P1): 민법에 ‘인격권’ 담는다…갑질 등에 배상 법적근거 마련

•   국민: “회식 부활한다고?… 강요하면 신고” MZ 직딩들 ‘심란’

•   서울: 삼성전자 1분기 호실적 전망… ‘6만 전자’ 탈출 신호탄 될까

•   서울: 독자 개발한 ‘한국형 가스터빈’ 첫 설치

•   서울: 인텔 낸드 사업 인수한 SK하이닉스 美 시장 공략 가속

•   세계: [단독] ‘IT기업 94% 노동법 위반’ 쉬쉬한 정부

•   머니투데이(P1): 尹 당선인 '中企 살리기' 공약 속도..."납품대금 현실화"

•   머니투데이: [단독]탈원전 '연쇄 타격'…3년간 원자력기금 730억 증발했다

•   머니투데이: [단독]'3월의 코로나 비극'..주민등록 없어진 사망자 역대 최대

•   머니투데이: 카톡으로 '커피' 대신 '애플' 주식 선물한다…"10분이면 완료"

•   헤럴드경제: 새 정부 경제분야 국정과제, 더 손볼 곳 없나

•   헤럴드경제: 반도체 3사, 올 1분기 ‘함박 웃음’ 기대

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): [단독]1100억 팔린 사모펀드 결국 원금 못찾는다 [부실 사모펀드, 손놓은 회수]

•   디지털타임스: 원가에 허덕이는 車부품사, 영업이익률 완성차 절반뿐

•   이데일리(P1): 기업 3곳 중 한 곳은 돈벌어 이자도 못내…도산 쓰나미 온다

•   이데일리(P1): 尹이 띄운 최저임금 차등적용…노사 첫 회의부터 신경전 팽팽

•   이데일리: '최저임금 직격탄' 1년째 공장 문닫아…"인건비 감당 못해"

•   이데일리: 노동계 “최저임금 차등적용 절대 반대…법에 있는 근거도 없애야”

•   이데일리(P1): 국제유가 부담 줄인다…5월부터 유류세 30% 인하

•   이데일리: [단독]여가부 이어 중기부 해체 검토…“文 지우기냐” 반발

•   이데일리: [단독]금리 연계 파생상품 대규모 평가손실…발 묶인 기관 자금

•   이데일리: [단독]文공급핵심 2·4대책, 첫삽도 못뜨고 좌초 위기

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 28만1262명 확진…어제보다 2만1626명 많아

•   연합: 지난해 대기업 제재 건수 571건…전년보다 10.4% 증가

•   전자신문(P1): 디지털정부, 대통령 직속 기구 급부상

•   전자신문: 직방, 'IoT 거점 라운지·가상 오피스'로 근무 패러다임 바꿨다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Dorottya Szikra, Mitchell A. Orenstein): Why Orbán Won Again

•   Project Syndicate(Joseph E. Stiglitz): Shock Therapy for Neoliberals

•   FT(Editorial Board): The US dollar’s status is safe for now

•   FT(Editorial Board): Politics is the barrier to tackling climate change

•   FT(Janan Ganesh): The US will be the ultimate winner of Ukraine’s crisis

•   FT(Sarah O'Connor): Union victory for Amazon warehouse could change US labour movement

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The ESG zeitgeist

•   FT(John Redwood): Investors hit by globalisation retreat

•   FT(Jonathan Haslam): A wary China keeps its distance from Putin the gambler

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Consequences of War Crimes

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): A ‘Win’ for Hungary’s Orban

•   WSJ(Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.): Bucha Escalates Putin’s Risks

•   WSJ(William A. Galston): How Will Inflation End?

•   WSJ(David Knight Legg): Putin’s Ukraine Invasion Is About Energy and Natural Resources

•   WSJ(Mark Dubowitz, Matthew Zweig): Iran’s Master Class in Evading Sanctions

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): What Ever Happened to the Great Resignation?

•   NYT(Bret Stephens): Biden Is Still Right. Putin Has to Go.

•   NYT(Sara Menker, Rajiv Shah): Putin’s War Has Started a Global Food Crisis

•   WP(Editorial Board): Fixing legal immigration is an obvious step to help worker shortages

•   WP(Lawrence H. Summers): My inflation warnings have spurred questions. Here are my answers.

•   WP(David Von Drehle): Putin’s indiscriminate bombing isn’t just savage. It’s bad strategy.

•   WP(Katrina vanden Heuvel): As prices soar, we need action — not spin

•   WP(Eugene Finkel): What’s happening in Ukraine is genocide. Period.

•   Bloomberg(Mark Gongloff): Home Prices Can Always Get More Ridiculous

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): De-Globalization Could Help Countries Like Mexico Make Up Ground Lost to China

•   Bloomberg(Aaron Brown): The Housing Market Is Hot But Certainly Not 'Unhinged’

•   Bloomberg(Anjani Trivedi): The U.S. Is Losing the EV Battery Race

•   Bloomberg(Izabella Kaminska): Russia’s Push Into Crypto Is a Big Step Backwards

•   Bloomberg(Robert D. Kaplan): To Save Democracy, We Need a Few Good Dictators