Global Economic Monitor 220415

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: U.S. stocks dip, bond yields climb on tightening concerns

※   Wall Street indexes close lower, bond yields rise

※   Euro dips while dollar rises

※   Gold falls slightly, oil futures rise

•   Eurozone: Euro hits two-year low on ECB interest rates caution

•   Metals: Copper prices supported by hopes for more China stimulus

•   Grains: Corn climbs on global supply fears; wheat down on profit-taking

•   한국: 한은 금리 인상에 국내 증시 보합세…코스피 0.01%↑

[Indicators]

•   US Feb. Business inventories : U.S. business inventories beat expectations in February

•   US Mar. Retail sales: High Gasoline Prices Take Up Big Share of March Retail Spending Increase

※   Sales rose 0.5% as consumers spend more on essentials like gasoline and food

※   WSJ: Spending More, Getting Less as Inflation Outpaces Retail Sales

•   US Mar. Export·Import prices: U.S. import prices accelerate in March on petroleum

•   US Apr. Consumer sentiment: U.S. Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Rises to Three-Month High

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: Unemployment Claims Rose Slightly Last Week

•   US Weekly Rig count: US drillers add oil and gas rigs for fourth week in a row

•   Eurozone Benchmark rate: ECB says Ukraine war is pushing up prices but sticks to gradual response

※   No fixed date for rate rises drives euro to two-year low as policymakers grapple with inflation and growth risks

※   ECB: Monetary policy decisions

•   한국 기준금리: 기준금리 1.25→1.50% 또 인상…4%대 인플레 '불 끄기'

※   한국은행: 통화정책방향(2022.04.14)

※   매경: "우크라 사태로 高물가 장기화"…올해 금리 2~3번 더 올릴듯

※   매경: 주담대 7% 금리 시대 눈앞…영끌족들 버틸 수 있을까

•   한국 3월 ICT 수출: 3월 ICT 수출, 月 최고액 경신…22개월째 증가세 지속

•   한국 2월 재정수지: 세금 12조 더 걷었지만…재정적자 2조 늘어

•   한국 2월 은행 원화대출 연체율: 2월말 국내은행 원화대출 연체율 0.25%…0.02%p 증가

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 강남 재건축 들썩…새 정부 '규제완화 딜레마'

[News]

•   WSJ: Russia’s Black Sea Flagship Abandoned, Damaged After Ukraine Claims Missile Strike Sinks It

※   Moscow says all sailors aboard the missile cruiser Moskva, which took part in strikes on Ukrainian cities, were rescued

•   WSJ: Russia Warns It Could Station Nuclear Forces in Europe if Finland, Sweden Join NATO

※   The invasion of Ukraine has tilted public opinion in Finland and Sweden toward seeking membership in the U.S.-led alliance

•   WSJ: Putin Says Western Sanctions Have Disrupted Russian Oil Industry

•   WSJ: Anti-Russia Alliance Is Missing a Big Bloc: The Developing World

•   WSJ: Russian Kleptocrats of Particular Concern to U.S. Treasury

•   WSJ: Fed’s John Williams Says Half-Point Rate Rise Is Reasonable Option for May

※   The New York Fed president expressed doubt that rate increases would send the economy into a recession or cause pain

•   WSJ: BA.2 Cases Rise, but Few Signs of a Covid-19 Surge So Far

•   WSJ: Pfizer Says Covid-19 Booster in Children Ages 5 to 11 Sparked Immune Response Against Omicron

•   WSJ: Europe’s Carbon Market Passes the Test

•   WSJ: Wall Street’s Deal-Making Boom Starts to Sputter Out

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Makes $43 Billion Bid for Twitter, Says ‘Civilization’ At Stake

•   WSJ: Musk Looks to Next Frontier After Chasing Space, Car Dreams

•   WSJ: Google, JPMorgan, Other U.S. Firms Flee Russia for Dubai

•   WSJ: Companies Size Up Their Losses on Russian Operations

•   NYT: Moody’s warns that Russia’s bond payments in rubles could lead to default.

※   The failure to fulfill its foreign debt obligation would be the first in more than a century for Russia, dealing with sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine.

•   NYT: Many Virus Cases Go Uncounted. Are There Better Ways to Track the Pandemic?

•   NYT: Europe Reluctantly Readies Russian Oil Embargo

•   NYT: China’s economy pays a price as lockdowns restrict nearly a third of its population.

•   WP: Construction firms hit Biden labor agreement plan that unions praise

•   WP: Why has Biden’s approval plunged with young people?

•   WP: Economic toll in Texas worsens as trucks remain stopped at Mexico border

•   WP: The myth of Putin is punctured

•   WP: The big role that small countries are playing in supplying Ukraine

•   FT: Why the US has hit some Russian oligarchs with sanctions but not others

•   FT: Unsafe at any price

•   FT: The corner of France that explains Macron, Le Pen and a deep political divide

•   FT: Britain after Brexit: swapping EU red tape for UK bureaucracy

•   FT: Can the Fed stamp out US inflation without causing a recession?

•   FT: China escalates zero-Covid propaganda effort as experts warn of economic damage

※   Healthcare official says Beijing’s coronavirus prevention policy is ‘not viable’

•   FT: VW China sales hit by lockdowns and semiconductor supply problems

•   FT: TSMC ups revenue forecast as global chip shortage persists

•   Bloomberg: Russian Troops Risk Repeating Blunders If They Try for May 9 Win

•   Bloomberg: EU Leaders to Discuss Joint Gas Purchases at Summit in Late May

•   Bloomberg: Biden Pushes Congress on Manufacturing Bill to Bolster Competition With China

•   Bloomberg: Mester Says Fed to Pare Back Policy Support to Curb Inflation

•   Bloomberg: Summers Suggests U.S. Focus Global Agenda Elsewhere Than China

•   Bloomberg: Russian Central Banker Sees Room to Cut Rates Again on Inflation

•   Bloomberg: IMF Deputy Says World Needs to Prepare for Covid Downsides

•   Bloomberg: IMF to Hold Debt Discussions With Egypt, Sri Lanka and Tunisia

•   Bloomberg: China’s Central Bank Vows to Use Policy Tools, Including RRR

•   Bloomberg: Indonesia Says Russia Has the Right to Attend G-20 Next Week

•   Bloomberg: Africa Covid-19 New Infections at Lowest Since April 2020

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Strategists Warn Credit Investors Risk ‘Double Whammy’

•   Bloomberg: Transcript: Goldman’s Jeff Currie On the ‘Vol Trap” In Commodities

•   Bloomberg: EU May Sanction Russian Energy as Pressure Builds, Yergin Says

•   Bloomberg: Russian Grain Flows to Top Customers Despite War Inflating Costs

•   Bloomberg: China’s Coal Sector Raises Alarm Over Potential for More Outages

•   Bloomberg: Wind Passed Coal, Nuclear Power in U.S. for First Time on Record

•   Bloomberg: Big U.S. Utilities Are Undermining Climate Goals, Study Says

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Investors Shift From Betting on Growth to Bracing for Scarcity

•   Reuters: EU closes loophole allowing multimillion-euro arms sales to Russia

•   Reuters: Global growth hit by Ukraine war, IMF's Georgieva says, warning of 'very dangerous time'

※   IMF to cut growth outlooks for 143 economies

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Russian companies, global banks could reap windfall from depositary receipt delisting

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Three-quarters of Japan firms bemoan current yen weakness as bad for business poll

•   Reuters: BOJ's Wakatabe says Japan no longer suffering from sustained price falls

•   Reuters: Poorer nations shun AstraZeneca COVID vaccine - document

•   Reuters: Analysis: As Fed tightens up, U.S. stock investors play defense on options market

•   Reuters: Analysis: Biden plan to aid Europe with LNG poses risk to US climate goals

•   Reuters: Analysis: Hawkish Fed and China lockdowns threaten Brazil's world-beating FX rally

•   CNBC: Sustainable recovery spending could be derailed by commodity price spikes following Ukraine war

•   CNBC: Bet on Latin America as the No. 1 beneficiary of the new energy world order, says Bank of America

•   CNBC: Hong Kong’s ‘Mr. Metaverse’ on why he’s placing a big Web3 bet against Mark Zuckerberg

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Shanghai’s symptomatic cases jump to a record 2,573, showing why Xi is doubling down on his zero-tolerance battle with Covid-19

•   SCMP: China vows ‘necessary measures’ to defend investors amid Western pressure to take sides in Russia-Ukraine war

•   Global Times: Shanghai fights Omicron with persistence and solidarity, offers lesson on importance of sticking to zero-COVID path

•   Nikkei Asia: Yen could tumble to 130 against dollar by year-end: analyst poll

•   Nikkei Asia: EV battery maker Envision AESC to build 2nd plant in U.S.

•   매경(P1): 정의선, 전기차시장 주도 선언 "2030년 전세계 점유율 12%로"

•   매경(P1): [단독] 강남 서초 그린벨트 푼다…MB때처럼 대규모 공급 추진

•   매경: [단독] 반값 분양 늘어나나…민간재건축도 '토지임대부 분양' 나온다

•   매경: 중국인 서울아파트 줍줍 막는다…인수위 "외국인도 예외 없다"

•   매경: "이러다 일본 꼴 난다"…한국 디스플레이, 중국에 추월당해

•   매경: 삼성전자, 인텔 출신 슈퍼컴 전문가 부사장으로 영입

•   매경: "선사들이 수출물류 더 도와달라"

•   매경: "본사 안 와도 돼"…LG엔솔, 코로나 끝나도 원격근무 확대

•   매경: 매도 의견 안내는 증권사 리포트…중립의견은 사실상 팔아라?

•   한경(P1): 고용부 장관에 한국노총 출신 이정식

•   한경: 초대 고용장관에 노동계 출신 이례적 발탁…"노·사·정 사회적 대화, 노사 자율에 맡겨야"

•   한경: 정통 농정관료…"CPTPP, 농업인과 충분히 상의"

•   한경(P1): 대기업 경영진 '순혈주의' 깨졌다

•   한경: "요즘 누가 출신 따지나"…'불문율' 깬 대기업 젊은 오너들

•   한경: "기수문화가 뭔가요?"…공채 폐지하는 대기업들

•   한경: 내년 '한국인 5000만' 붕괴…20년 뒤 서울시 인구만큼 사라진다

※   통계청: 2021년 장래인구추계를 반영한 내외국인 인구전망 : 2020~2040년

•   한경: 이창용 "LTV 완화, 점진적으로 추진해야"

•   한경: 삼성전자 법인세 부담률 25.2%…매출 비슷한 인텔의 3배

•   서경: 부위원장·주요 간사 공석…인수위 동력 갈수록 떨어져

•   서경: 장관 후보자 중에서만 4명…새정부 인선 곳곳 ‘사외이사’ 암초

•   서경: 中, 반도체 장비 공격 투자…2년 연속 한국 추월

•   서경: [시그널]'트리플A' 회사채 금리 4% 육박…한화 등 발행 줄줄이 철회

•   서경: [시그널] 주식 시장 한파에…메자닌 채권 발행 반토막

•   서경: 국수 한그릇 1만원…"값 올려도 남는게 없어"

•   서경: 쌍용차 재매각 본격화…6월말 인수예정자 선정

•   서경: "원전 다시 뜬다"…발걸음 빨라지는 지자체

•   조선(P1): 18일부터 거리두기 해제...마스크는 계속 쓴다

•   조선: 로봇이 사람 알아보고 커피·도시락 배달...AI가 회의록 자동 정리

•   조선: 판 커진 메타버스에 탑승하라, 불붙은 ‘쩐의 전쟁’

•   조선: 출근길에 든 생각, ‘아 퇴근하고 싶다’

•   조선: “재택근무로 소통 단절” 한국인이 유난히 걱정 많아

•   조선: 야구표 어제는 1800원, 내일은 만원...AI가 결정한다

•   조선비즈: 인수위 “강남권 그린벨트 해제로 주택공급 검토, 사실 아냐”

•   조선비즈: “2030년에도 전세계 전기車 점유율은 30%에 그칠 것”

•   조선비즈: 삼성전자, 웨이퍼 생산 글로벌 1위… 연간 반도체 2兆개 만든다

•   조선비즈: 대사 넣으니 웹툰 캐릭터가 뚝딱… 일상으로 다가온 AI

•   중앙(P1): 윤 당선인·안철수 전격회동…인선 갈등 봉합

•   중앙: 흩어진 각 부처 데이터 모아 ‘포괄적 연금통계’ 만든다

•   중앙: 닛케이 “윤 당선인, 쿼드 옵서버 참석 타진”…인수위는 부인

•   중앙: [단독] 인수위, 감사원에 “공공기관 전반 감사를”…알박기 빼나

•   JTBC: [단독] 윤석열-안철수, 신속한 합당 합의..."과학기술 분야 등 늘 의논하기로"

•   동아(P1): 美, 새 안보리 대북제재안 “北 원유공급 절반 감축”

•   한국(P1): "납품가 못 올린다 특약 무효" 中企 옥죈 '20년 관행' 제동

•   한국: 1년 새 같은 코로나 백신만 4번 접종 … 내성 생기지 않을까

•   국민: 새 정부 최우선 과제 ‘물가 안정’… 전기·가스요금 어쩌나

•   국민: [관가뒷담] 실세 정치인 장관 지명으로 들뜬 국토부

•   서울: ‘내돈내산’ 디지털 작품… 넌 로또냐 신기루냐

•   머니투데이: 따르릉 "저 박진입니다"…前 중국 삼성경제연구원장을 찾은 전화

•   머니투데이: 가계대출 줄때 기업대출 뛰었다…사장님 모시는 은행

•   헤럴드경제: 삼성 파운드리 독립5년…점유율 확대 성과·고객사 확대 숙제

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 삼성 반도체 '파트장' 직함 신설

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]삼성전자, 6세대 D램 조기개발…'퀀텀점프' 노린다

•   아시아경제: [기업 족쇄 법인세]모래주머니 없애겠다는 尹…손질 급물살 타나

•   아시아경제: [기업 족쇄 법인세]韓, 稅 부담 투톱은 반도체…"세제혜택 고민해야"

•   아시아경제: 커지는 미분양시장…서울 '청약불패' 공식 깨졌다

•   디지털타임스(P1): "韓경제 최악의 경우 퍼펙트 스톰 올수도"

•   디지털타임스: KDI 20일 `미래전략 콘퍼런스`… 진념 前부총리 기조연설 예정

•   디지털타임스: [르포] AI로 얼굴인식해 들어가고… 앱으로 자리 `찜`

•   이데일리: 근거법 없어 `미아` 된 에너지기본계획…탈원전 폐기 무용지물 될 판

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 12만3627명 확진…어제보다 2만885명 적어

•   전자신문(P1): 스타트업 "보고서 쓰다 날샌다"

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트] '수익 악화' 스마트폰 부품업계...신사업 '승부수'

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트] 장비업계도 신사업 '바람'

•   전자신문: 대한상의 “원자재 가격 상승으로 기업 98% 피해 우려”

•   전자신문: '배터리데이'…현대차·삼성·SK·LG 등 총출동

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Minxin Pei): China Will Be Deglobalization’s Big Loser

•   Project Syndicate(Nick Butler): Will America Become the Saudi Arabia of Natural Gas?

•   Project Syndicate(Rabah Arezki, Mahmoud Mohieldin): Preventing Developing-Economy Debt Disasters

•   FT(Richard Waters): The big tech players are muscling into AI

•   FT(Ryan McMorrow): The robot dogs policing Shanghai’s strict lockdown

•   FT(Victor Mallet): The high price of failure in a French election

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Of Trade War and Prices

•   WSJ(John Bolton): Let Ukraine or Russia, Not the ICC, Prosecute War Crimes

•   WSJ(Sadanand Dhume): Imran Khan Rails Against America

•   WSJ(William Nattrass): Dissent on Ukraine Emerges in the Heart of Europe

•   WSJ(James W. Coleman): Biden’s Blame Game Will Raise Oil Prices

•   WSJ(Mark Kimmitt): Putin Taps the Butcher of Syria to Subdue Ukraine

•   WSJ(Reuven Brenner): Inflation and the Fog of War

•   NYT(Thomas L. Friedman): Free Advice for Putin: ‘Make Peace, You Fool’

•   WP(David Ignatius): If the Iran nuclear deal fails, Iraq could suffer the fallout

•   WP(Jennifer Rubin): Let Biden be Biden on Ukraine

•   WP(Eugene Robinson): If Elon Musk wants Twitter, he’s welcome to it

•   WP(Megan McArdle): Inflation might take a bite for longer than you think

•   WP(Daniel Yergin, Carlos Pascual ): How to cut off Russian oil and gas to Europe without causing chaos

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Four Financial Questions for This Passover, From Ukraine to Recession

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): Ukraine War Is Depleting America’s Arsenal of Democracy

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): Macron Knows Inflation Is Le Pen's Best Weapon in French Campaign

•   Bloomberg(Meghan L. O'Sullivan): Russia-Ukraine War: Oil Sanctions That Won't Ruin the Global Economy

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): This Is Why the TSMC Juggernaut Shows No Signs of Slowing

•   Bloomberg(Sebastian Mallaby): The West must keep hitting Russia with new sanctions

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): March Retail Sales: Consumers Power Through on the Way to Higher Rates

•   CNN(Tom Carper, John Cornyn): Revoking trade with Russia will deliver a powerful blow to its economy

•   Fox News(Rebecca Grant): Pentagon finally gets serious about helping Ukraine defeat Russia

•   Fox News(Bill Johnson): Big Oil's 'rush to green' doesn't benefit American families

•   Fox News(Roger Marshall, Jonathan Crowe, David Bernstein): Inflation makes Americans sicker

•   Reuters(Clyde Russell): China's March commodity imports were subdued, more softness ahead