Global Economic Monitor 220407

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks fall, dollar strengthens after Fed minutes

※   Wall Street ends lower

※   Oil prices down sharply

※   Dollar index hits nearly two-yr peak

•   US: Treasury Yields Extend Climb Into Fourth Session

•   Russia: Mocked as ‘Rubble’ by Biden, Russia’s Ruble Comes Roaring Back

•   Coal: Asia’s Coal Price Jumps as EU’s Russia Ban Adds Supply Risks

•   Metals: Copper prices fall as hawkish Fed boosts the dollar

•   Grains: Chicago soybeans, corn, consolidate

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Drops the Most in a Month as Markets Turn Risk-Averse

•   한국: 코스피, 긴축 우려 속 0.88% 하락…개인은 1.1조원 순매수

•   한국: 8년 만에…국채금리 장중 年3%

[Indicators]

•   Global Feb. Goods trade: Global trade falls 2.8% as Russia’s war in Ukraine hits container traffic

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications: Surging interest rates push mortgage demand down more than 40% from a year ago

•   Germany Feb. Factory orders: German Factory Orders Fall as Economy Faces Ukraine War Fallout

•   UK Mar. Construction PMI: Business confidence in UK construction hits 17-month low

•   China Mar. Services PMI(Caixin): China’s Services Sector Posts Steepest Decline Since Pandemic’s Start

•   Japan Feb. GDP: Japan February GDP up 0.3% on steady exports to China: JCER

•   India Mar. Services PMI: India's services activity at 3-month high as Covid curbs ease

•   Russia Weekly CPI : Russian Inflation Heating Up as Prices Jump 10% in 3 Months

[News]

•   WSJ: Fed Signals Half-Percentage-Point Rate Increases Could Be Warranted at Coming Meetings

※   Central bank officials at their meeting last month spelled out a plan for shrinking their $9 trillion asset portfolio next month to help cool inflation, minutes show

※   Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 15-16, 2022

•   WSJ: Fed’s Patrick Harker Expects Steady, Deliberate Path of Rate Rises

•   WSJ: What the 2008 Financial Crisis Tells Us About Today’s Inflation Surge

•   WSJ: U.S. Allies to Release Close to 60 Million Barrels of Oil From Reserves

※   International Energy Agency plans a new reserve release totaling 120 million barrels

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Surprise Strike on Russian Fleet Hobbles Putin’s Donbas Strategy

※   Attack on navy ships at Berdyansk port could limit Russia’s ability to fire on eastern Ukraine, analysts say; ‘major logistical blow’

•   WSJ: Ukraine Urges Civilians to Flee Looming Russian Offensive in Eastern Regions

•   WSJ: Kyiv Residents Remain on Edge Despite Russian Retreat

•   WSJ: Europe Keeps Russian Oil, Gas Flowing Despite Tightening Sanctions

•   WSJ: Putin’s Daughters Face Sanctions Over Ukraine but Remain Shrouded in Secrecy

※   Measures being discussed by the U.S. and EU would cast a spotlight on the Russian president’s closely guarded family life

※   White House: Background Press Call by Senior Administration Officials on New Economic Costs on Russia

•   WSJ: Russia, U.S. Face-Off Boosts Default Risk

•   WSJ: ‘We Will Kill You’: How Russia Silenced Its Antiwar Movement

•   WSJ: FDA Advisers to Discuss How to Prepare for New Covid-19 Variants

•   WSJ: Biden Mixes With Crowds as Covid-19 Cases Hit White House

•   WSJ: Shanghai Workers Sleep at the Office as China Extends Covid-19 Lockdown

•   WSJ: SEC Is Investigating How Amazon Disclosed Business Practices

•   WSJ: Google Bans Apps With Hidden Data-Harvesting Software

•   WSJ: Oil Executives Reject Price-Gouging Accusations

•   WSJ: High Energy Prices Challenge Wall Street’s Green Shift

•   WSJ: Ukraine War Sparks Global Scramble for Cooking Oils

•   NYT: Justice Dept. Charges Russian Oligarch With Violating Sanctions

•   NYT: NATO Nations See Differing Paths as Ukraine War Enters Uncertain Stage

•   NYT: New Russian Land Mine Poses Special Risk in Ukraine

•   NYT: Russia pays dollar-denominated debt in rubles, risking default, after U.S. blocks payment.

•   NYT: Countries have expelled 120 Russian spies since the war in Ukraine started.

•   NYT: The End of the (Pipe)line? Germany Scrambles to Wean Itself Off Russian Gas

•   NYT: Europe is weighing a ban on Russian coal. Here’s what that could mean.

•   NYT: A New Covid Mystery

•   NYT: European health agencies say it is ‘too early’ for second boosters for most people.

•   NYT: Even Before France Votes, the French Right Is a Big Winner

•   WP: As Ukraine war drags on, Pentagon makes long-term plans for Europe

•   FT: EU set to add high-profile Russian executives to sanctions list

•   FT: Weaponisation of finance: how the west unleashed ‘shock and awe’ on Russia

•   FT: ‘A real stroke of genius’: US leads efforts to publicise Ukraine intelligence

•   FT: Brussels hardens stance on Hungary, softens on Poland

•   FT: China’s zero-Covid policy risks causing agricultural crisis and food shortages

•   FT: Hong Kong hardliner joins race to become city’s next leader

•   FT: Toshiba’s second biggest shareholder pushes for sale to private equity

•   FT: Facebook owner Meta targets finance with ‘Zuck Bucks’ and creator coins

•   FT: Carbon removal ‘unavoidable’ as climate change alarm bells ring

•   Bloomberg: U.S. to Skip G-20 Finance Chiefs’ Meeting If Russia Takes Part

•   Bloomberg: Ex-Oligarch Says Putin Sees War With the West Already Underway

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Faces Bipartisan Pressure to Toughen Russia Sanctions

•   Bloomberg: Yellen to Warn War Threatens ‘Enormous Economic Repercussions’

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Says Russian Oil Escrow Account an Idea ‘Worth Exploring’

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Says U.S. Would Use Sanctions If China Invaded Taiwan

•   Bloomberg: Hypersonic-Missile Delay Puts U.S. Further Behind Russia and China

•   Bloomberg: U.K. Bets Big on Nuclear, Offshore Wind in Energy Security Push

•   Bloomberg: Draghi Plans to Spend More Now — With Eye on EU Budget Rules

•   Bloomberg: ECB Tightening Alone to Curb Prices Would Be ‘Extremely Costly’

•   Bloomberg: EU’s Top Diplomat Calls Summit With China’s Xi a ‘Deaf Dialog’

•   Bloomberg: U.K. Covid Cases at Highest Level as Immunity Wanes, Study Finds

•   Bloomberg: China Vows to Use Monetary Policy Tools at Appropriate Time

•   Bloomberg: China to Set Up Fund to Rescue Troubled Financial Firms

•   Bloomberg: Sanctioned Oil Piling Up Off China as Virus Outbreak Worsens

•   Bloomberg: European Chamber Warns China Lockdowns Disrupting Production

•   Bloomberg: India to Face Significant Cost If Aligned With Russia, U.S. Says

•   Bloomberg: Nuclear Power’s Growing Fan Base in Japan Faces a Reality Check

•   Bloomberg: The Yield Curve Will Fully Invert When China's Covid Lockdowns Pressure Supply Chains

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Unwind Plan Leaves Money Markets Starved for Supply

•   Bloomberg: Energy Crisis Threatens to Eclipse 1970s Shocks, Yergin Says

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: China’s $2.3 Trillion Infrastructure Plan Puts America’s to Shame

•   Reuters: Russia edges close to default on debt, puts roubles aside for bondholders

•   Reuters: Barkin: Fed has time to reach a more neutral rate given ongoing pandemic effects

•   Reuters: U.S. says China could face sanctions if it supports Russia's war in Ukraine

•   Reuters: Germany unveils plans to accelerate green energy expansion

•   Reuters: Quick ECB action to rein in inflation could crash economy -Panetta

•   Reuters: 'COVID is not a cold' - Germany U-turns on ending mandatory isolation

•   Reuters: Russia-Ukraine war to slow 2022 growth in developing Asia - ADB

※   ADB: Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022: Mobilizing Taxes for Development

•   Reuters: IMF cuts Japan's growth forecast on hit from Ukraine war fallout

•   Reuters: Exclusive: China state refiners shun new Russian oil trades

•   Reuters: Taiwan tightens Russia export curbs, details tech rules

•   Reuters: Toyota joins Tesla in developing self-driving tech with low-cost cameras

•   Reuters: Intel becomes latest Western tech firm to suspend business in Russia

•   Reuters: Analysis: Easy Russia sanctions exhausted, U.S. and allies face economic bite

•   CNBC: China’s long weekend tourism spend plunges to 39.2% of pre-pandemic levels

•   CNBC: Global government debt set to soar to record $71 trillion this year, new research says

•   CNBC: Japan’s central bank will be ‘alarmed’ if yen crosses 130 per dollar, says ex-vice minister

•   SCMP: US plans trade meetings with Asean leaders as it retools Indo-Pacific strategy

•   SCMP: US sanctions threat if China aids Russia stirs fear in Beijing about forex assets

•   SCMP: China calls for facts on ‘disturbing’ Bucha deaths in Ukraine war

•   Global Times: Shanghai fights decisive battle against Omicron with swifter actions; nearby cities provide 60,000 beds for quarantine

•   Caixin: Huawei Deepens Bet on Batteries With Investment in Lithium-Ion Alternative

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan's nuclear tech exports shift focus from plants to parts

•   Nikkei Asia: CATL to mass-produce EV batteries in Germany by year-end

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Xi risks stumbling with Putin if he plays his cards wrong

•   매경(P1): [단독] "文정부 부동산 통계 엉터리"…부동산 세금 로드맵 새로 짠다

•   매경: 다른 나라보다 세율 낮다더니…文정부서 자산세 OECD 1위로

•   매경: [단독] 1년간 19% 오른 아파트 공시가…尹정부서 전면 재검토

•   매경(P1): 국방부 이사 시작…新 용산시대 시동

•   매경: 거미줄처럼 얽힌 철길·도로 걷어내야…용산 '역대급 교통축' 된다

•   매경: 세종시처럼 '개발청·특별법' 없으면…용산계획, 또다시 좌초될 가능성

•   매경: 합참 이달 28일 떠나…尹 '용산취임' 불투명

•   매경(P1): "출근 싫다" 재택근무 중독된 직장인들…기업들은 초비상

•   매경: 한미 "美전략자산 한반도 전개 협의"

•   매경: 한덕수 "내각에 인사권·예산권 모두 줘야"

•   매경: "테슬라·구글 잡자"…현대차도 OS 경쟁

•   매경: [단독] 삼성, 갤럭시A 1차 출시국서 러시아 제외했다

•   매경: 갤S22 6주만에 100만대 판매…역대 3위

•   매경: 완전히 부활한 K조선, 수주량 절반 '싹쓸이'

•   매경: 카카오 계열사 구조조정…연내 30여개 줄인다

•   매경: "영끌해도 전세 못 구해"…서울서 밀려난 2030 작년에만 7만명

•   매경: 산업부, 한수원에 "월성 폐쇄 안되면 옷벗어야" 압박

•   매경: [Industry Review] '성장의 함정' 피하려면…K배터리 성공 전략 3가지

•   한경(P1): 이번엔 국책硏…도 넘은 문재인 정부 '알박기'

•   한경(P1): [단독] KG그룹, 쌍용차 인수전 뛰어든다…유력 후보 급부상

•   한경: [단독] 공정위, 규정까지 바꿔 김범석 '쿠팡 총수' 지정…통상마찰 빚나

•   한경: "얼마 벌어야 중산층인가요?" 물었더니…기준치 확 높아졌다

•   한경: "잘 팔리면 뭐하나"…밀린 車주문만 100만대

•   한경: 신차 평균 판매가 4000만원 넘었다

•   한경: 신사업·독보적 신기술 '무장'…인플레·공급망 대란 넘는다

•   서경(P1): 인수위, 해상풍력 제동…신재생 수술대 오른다

•   서경: 전력망 없는 깡통발전소 수두룩…'신재생 금융'부터 메스 댄다

•   서경: 원전 늘리고 감속…탄소중립 플랜B 나오나

•   서경: 연료비 급등·신재생 과속에…LNG 전력거래액 폭증

•   서경(P1): 명맥 끊긴 '해외자원개발' 속도…원자재 대란發 자원안보 강화

•   서경: 정권 따라 흔들리는 '톱다운 방식' 싹 바꾼다

•   서경: [단독] 인수위 "주52시간·최저임금 차등화, 무리한 추진보다 보완 중점"

•   서경: 현대차 "독자기술" SK온 "포드와 합작"…폐배터리 공략 가속도

•   서경: 고준위 핵폐기물 처리 '난제' 풀 실마리 찾았다

•   서경: 치솟는 철근값에…물류센터 공사 멈추나

•   조선(P1): 10년새 경험못했던… ' i 쓰나미’가 닥친다

•   조선(P1): 2억~3억대 청년주택, 서울 도심에 짓는다

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 삼성맨도 부러워한다, IT업계 ‘200만원 의자 복지’

•   조선: 탈원전 대못에… 尹정부, 노후 원전 6기 재가동 힘들다

•   조선: 5년간 발목잡은 원안위, 운영허가 계속 미루고 영구정지는 밀어붙여

•   조선: [단독] 감사원 “초기조사 미진했다”… 原電 감사 반성문

•   조선: ‘중기부를 구하라’ 전현직 장관들 구명 운동

•   조선: “30대 내집마련 대출, 풀긴 풀어야 하는데”… 고민 깊어지는 금융당국

•   조선: 아마추어도 아닌데, 공정위 보도자료 취소 소동

•   조선: “삼성전자 대신 애플 살걸” 국내증시 떠나는 동학개미

•   조선: 달아오르던 세계 벤처업계, 투자 증가세 꺾여

•   조선비즈: 프리미엄 시장서 삼성 맹추격하는 中 스마트폰 기업들

•   조선비즈: 5G 올해 3000만 돌파, 트래픽도 증가… “주파수 추가 할당해야”

•   조선비즈: [단독] “文정부 ‘혈세 퍼주기’ 정상화”…尹, 예타 면제 요건 강화한다

•   조선비즈: ‘탈원전’으로 공사 길어진 신고리 5·6호, 보상금 수백억원 더 나간다

•   조선비즈: “노트북도 접는다” 삼성D·LGD, 폴더블 노트북 OLED 노크

•   조선비즈: 발열로 성능 저하 논란 겪는 안드로이드폰 ‘위기’

•   중앙(P1): 안철수계 내각 중용…"비서실장 경제통 2명, 정무통 1명 압축"

•   중앙: “북, 우라늄 적게 쓰는 2단계 수소폭탄 실험 가능성”

•   중앙: 유럽 제련소 전력난…원자재 값 급등에도 웃는 제련업계

•   동아: 감염재생산지수, 유행 감소로 전환… 거리두기 해제 가능성 커져

•   동아: [단독]“年 수천만원 보유세 감당 못해”… 재건축 조합원 ‘1+1 분양’ 포기 속출

•   동아: 스마트 제조기술 한자리에

•   문화(P1): 교육부장관 정철영 · 고용부장관 유경준 내정

•   한국(P1): 4월엔 거리두기 풀고, 5월엔 국제선 연다 ... '포스트 코로나' 성큼

•   한국: '탄소중립' 관심 커지자... 몸값 오른 환경 공무원들 줄줄이 기업행

•   한국: “합리적 에너지믹스로 전환해야”...새 정부에 에너지 정책 제언하고 나선 학계

•   한국: 예타 간신히 통과한 '뉴딜' 대표정책...새 정부서 예산 삭감 1순위?

•   한국: 수출 물량도 내수로 돌린다… '시멘트 대란' 수습 나선 정부

•   국민: ‘전기차 → 수소차’ 미래 주도권 넘어간다지만… 갈 길은 멀다

•   서울(P1): [단독] 中 견제 IPEF, 한국 등 11개국 참여한다

•   서울(P1): 인수위, 50조 추경 물러설 듯

•   세계(P1): 66세 이상 빈곤 위험도 OECD 1위… 18∼65세의 4배

•   한겨레(P1): [단독] 한덕수, 고위 관료 때 6억 임대수익…미국 기업 2곳에 세줬다

•   경향: 일손 부족 탓 ‘5일만 격리’ 논의에…“아파도 근무하란 거냐”

•   머니투데이(P1): 방통위 '위법' 판단에 구글 소송가능성 고조...꼬이는 인앱결제 논란

•   머니투데이: [단독]글로벌 기업 CEO→'윤석열 대통령 경제고문' 임명 검토

•   머니투데이: [단독]'尹대통령실'에 정책보좌관 신설…사정기관 총괄 내려놓기

•   머니투데이: 소상공인 등 '을' 지키는 플랫폼법…윤석열 정부도 추진하나

•   머니투데이: 정부, 인수위에 '소상공인 손실보상' 규모 보고…'2차 추경' 가시화

•   머니투데이: [단독]인수위, 재건축 초과이익 면제 3000만→1억원 상향 검토

•   헤럴드경제(P1): ‘슈퍼乙’ ASML, 삼성 반도체 핵심기지 ‘자매결연’ 제안

•   헤럴드경제: 분식집 3명이 가서 6만원…집 밖에서 뭘 먹는게 두렵다

•   헤럴드경제: 확 줄어든 매물…전세시장 8월이 두렵다

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 새 정부 길들이기?... 춘투 벼르는 노동계 [김경민의 적시타]

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 새 정부 경제팀 라인업 '추경호-최상목-김소영' [새정부 경제라인 윤곽]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 文이 언급한 수소선박, 상용화는 아직 먼 길

•   디지털타임스(P1): [기획] 韓경제에 쏟아지는 `성장·물가` 경고

•   디지털타임스: 고유가·원자재 수급난에 생산단가 압박 가중… 산업계 `초비상`

※   산업연구원: 글로벌 인플레이션 요인이 국내 제조업 생산자물가에 미치는 영향과 시사점

•   디지털타임스: 중기 "최저임금 동결·납품단가 연동제 실시하라"

•   디지털타임스: 반도체시장 절반 차지한 미국… `굴기` 中 점유율은 하락

※   IC Insights: Chinese Companies Hold Only 4% of Global IC Marketshare

•   디지털타임스: "해보니 괜찮네"… 재택 유지하는 이커머스

•   이데일리(P1): “전속고발권 폐지보다 더 무섭다…尹 기업 프랜들리 믿었는데”

•   이데일리: "압수수색 통해 신속한 증거 확보" vs "기업활동 위축 될 것"

•   이데일리: 금융위·식약처 특사경 쓰는데…공정위는 왜 안받을까

•   이데일리: 공정위 특사경 어렵다면…檢 플랜B ‘범칙조사제도’ 시도할까

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]인수위, 반값주택 대못 뽑는다…임대보증 개선 추진

•   이데일리: [단독]최저임금 아무리 올라도…새 정부, 文식 세금 인건비 지원 ‘손절’

•   이데일리: "전기차에 밀리고 경윳값 치솟고"…설 곳 없는 디젤차

•   이데일리: "논란의 물적분할…주식매수청구권 등 주주환원책 수반 必"

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 22만464명 확진…어제보다 6만798명 적어

•   뉴시스: [단독]文정부서 자원개발조사 예산 반토막…새 정부 재원 확보 관건

•   전자신문(P1): "반도체 '통상 전쟁' 산업부가 주도해야"

•   전자신문: 객실 청소·룸 서비스 '척척'…호텔, 로봇에 반했다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Daniel Gros): Is Putin’s War Driving Up Commodity Prices?

•   Project Syndicate(Daniel Cohen): Putin’s War Blows Up the French Election

•   FT(Editorial Board): French voters face a momentous choice

•   FT(Edward Luce): The world-changing meaning of Putin

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The Fed gets scary

•   FT(Peggy Hollinger): Beware lobbyists claiming support for the EU’s climate ambitions

•   FT(Alan Beattie): Five reasons to be optimistic about the survival of globalisation

•   FT(Lex): Coal: ban on Russian supplies would be costly but Europe could cope

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Democrats Have Gasoline Price Amnesia

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Germany ‘Putin-izes’ Putin’s Gas

•   WSJ(Alan S. Blinder): Wish the Fed Luck as It Seeks a Soft Landing on Inflation

•   WSJ(Daniel Henninger): Don’t Let Putin Win in Ukraine

•   WSJ(Karl Rove): Trump’s Two-Month Primary Test

•   WSJ(Seth Cropsey): Russia’s Military Troubles in Ukraine Could Be America’s in the Pacific

•   WSJ(Jason De Sena Trennert): Climate-Change ‘Solutions’ That Are Worse Than the Problem

•   WSJ(Peter Funt): Concerts for Ukraine, Again and Again

•   NYT(Peter Coy): Economists See Things One Way. ‘Ordinary’ People See Them Another.

•   NYT(Philip Breedlove): Why Russian Sanctions Won’t Stop Putin

•   WP(Editorial Board): China said its covid strategy was superior. It’s failing in Shanghai.

•   WP(David Ignatius): Has Putin’s brutality finally hit a wall in Ukraine?

•   WP(Jason Willick): Is Trump crazy — or calculating? His opponents have to decide.

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): To Rebuild Influence in Africa, U.S. Should Focus on Climate, Adaptation

•   Bloomberg(Bill Dudley): If Stocks Don’t Fall, the Fed Needs to Force Them

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): U.S. Needs a Strategic Reserve for Green Energy

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Fed's Lael Brainard Shows a Hawkish Side as Inflation Darkens, Even in Germany

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Bernstein): A Midterm Landslide Is Still No Sure Thing

•   Bloomberg(Clara Ferreira Marques, Matthew Brooker): The West Needs to Help China Loosen Its Russian Embrace

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): European Union's Russian Gas Policy Is Hypocritical and Unsustainable

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): Macron’s ‘Revolution’ Faces a Reckoning