Global Economic Monitor 220428

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: U.S., European shares advance as euro dives to lowest since 2017

※   Wall Street, European shares rise

※   Euro plunges on growth and Ukraine fears

※   Dollar eyes biggest monthly gain since 2015

•   US: Meta Shares Soar as Facebook Returns to User Growth

•   Natural gas: Russian Supply Concerns Drive Natural-Gas Prices Higher

•   Metals: Copper claws higher on hopes for China infrastructure push

•   Iron ore: Iron Ore Climbs as China Steel Hub Lifts Some Virus Controls

•   Grains: Soyoil futures surge to new record; corn rallies near decade high

•   한국: 코스피, 미국 증시 급락 여파에 1.10% 하락 마감…성장주 타격

•   한국: 강달러, 韓경제 강타…원화값 1260원 붕괴

[Indicators]

•   US Mar. Goods trade balance: U.S. Goods-Trade Gap Soars to Record, Surpassing All Estimates

•   US Mar. Pending home sales: U.S. Pending Homes Sales Decline on Rising Rates, High Prices

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications: Adjustable-rate mortgage demand doubles as interest rates hit the highest since 2009

•   China Mar. Industrial profits: China’s industrial profit growth quickens but virus risks loom

•   Russia Mar. GDP: Russia’s New Economic Data Is Inconsistent on Impact of War and Sanctions

•   한국 1분기 임대 동향: 상가 임대료 떨어지고 사무실 오르고

•   한국 2월 인구: 사망 최다·출생 최저…더 가팔라진 인구절벽

•   한국 4월 BSI·ESI: 거리두기 해제에 서비스 등 비제조업 체감경기 11년만에 최고

[News]

•   WSJ: Russia Suffers Another Fire at a Supply Depot as It Advances in Eastern Ukraine

•   WSJ: Russian Gas Stoppages Spur Europe’s Race for New Energy Supplies

※   European officials say Kremlin is throttling gas for Poland and Bulgaria to warn countries not to impose embargoes or arm Ukraine

•   WSJ: Russian Gas Cutoff Symbolizes New Era of Supply Shocks and Inflation

•   WSJ: EU Targets Hungary’s Funding Amid Russia Sanctions Fight

•   WSJ: U.S. Accuses China of Lax Intellectual Property Protection

※   In annual report, Biden administration says Beijing still needs to make a range of fundamental changes

※   USTR: USTR Releases 2022 Special 301 Report on Intellectual Property Protection and Enforcement

•   WSJ: Democrats Launch Attempt to Rescue Biden’s Economic Agenda

•   WSJ: Brazil’s Central Bank Intensifies Battle Against Sky-High Borrowing Costs

•   WSJ: Facebook Parent Meta Posts Slowest Revenue Growth Since IPO

•   WSJ: Boeing Reports Quarterly Loss as Jet Problems Persist

•   WSJ: Boeing Looked for Flaws in Its Dreamliner and Couldn’t Stop Finding Them

•   WSJ: Grain Traders’ Profits Rise as Ukraine War Tightens Global Food Supply

•   WSJ: Saudi Arabia Orders Up to 100,000 Electric Vehicles in Boost to Startup Lucid

•   WSJ: Archegos Founder Bill Hwang, Former CFO Charged With Securities Fraud

•   WSJ: Twitter Under Elon Musk: What An ‘Open Source’ and Free Speech-Oriented Platform Could Look Like

•   NYT: Russia Uses Cyberattacks in Ukraine to Support Military Strikes, Report Finds

•   NYT: China’s Covid Lockdown Outrage Tests Limits of Triumphant Propaganda

•   NYT: Beijing has 138 coronavirus cases. It musters 139,000 workers to test residents.

•   NYT: Aung San Suu Kyi Found Guilty in Myanmar Ahead of Biden Summit

•   NYT: Officials watch and wonder as the hottest U.S. coronavirus hot spot swells to two dozen counties.

•   NYT: Ford lost $3.1 billion in the first quarter.

•   FT: EU debates tapping sanctions-hit Russian assets to pay for rebuilding Ukraine

•   FT: Russia planning operations to destabilise pro-EU Moldova, officials warn

•   FT: ‘Divide and rule’: Russia’s rationale for halting gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria

•   FT: Ukraine war derails eastern Europe’s growth prospects

•   FT: How Russia’s war in Ukraine upended the breadbasket of Europe

•   FT: ECB opens door to July rate rise while stressing contrast with US

•   FT: New legislation to spur UK’s switch to low-carbon economy

•   FT: US to probe claims that top Chinese chipmaker violated ban on Huawei

•   FT: Chinese drone maker DJI halts Russia and Ukraine operations

•   Bloomberg: Biden Approves More Gas Export Projects as Russia Cuts Supply to Europe

•   Bloomberg: Four European Gas Buyers Made Ruble Payments to Russia

•   Bloomberg: EU Proposes Tariffs, Quotas Cut on Ukraine Goods to Aid Economy

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Sharing More Intelligence With Ukraine for Fight in Donbas

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Suspending Tariffs on Ukrainian Steel Imports

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Homebuilders Urge Biden to Help Cut Costs for Market in ‘Extreme Duress’

•   Bloomberg: Pelosi and Schumer Discuss Legislative Moves to Cut Gasoline Prices and Tackle Inflation

•   Bloomberg: GDP Likely to Show ‘Misleading’ U.S. Weakness as Fed Plots Path

•   Bloomberg: A 6% Fed Funds Rate? That May Be the Mother of All Shocks

•   Bloomberg: Germany’s Cabinet Passes $41.6 Billion in Extra Borrowing

•   Bloomberg: EU Embraces New Pandemic Phase Where Every Case Won’t Be Counted

•   Bloomberg: How Russia’s Gas Ban Rips Through the Core of European Industry

•   Bloomberg: Inequality Threatens Trust in Central Bankers, ECB Study Warns

•   Bloomberg: Brexit Drives Rise In U.K. Food Prices and Lifts Cost of Living

•   Bloomberg: China Cabinet Vows Stronger Policy to Boost Jobs as Covid Rages

•   Bloomberg: Xi’s Pledge Boosts Hopes Among Jaded China Stock Traders

•   Bloomberg: Chinese Commodities Shrug at Xi’s Pledge as Lockdowns Hit Demand

•   Bloomberg: A Third of China’s Economy Lagged the Nation in First Quarter

•   Bloomberg: China Locks Down Wholesale Hub for Christmas Trees, Trump Merch

•   Bloomberg: Asia Braces for LNG Price Surge as Russia Cuts Some Supply to EU

•   Bloomberg: Taiwan Economy Likely Slowed Ahead of Worsening China Lockdowns

•   Bloomberg: Soaring Food Prices in Indonesia Weigh on Jokowi’s Popularity

•   Bloomberg: A Powerful Dynasty Bankrupted Sri Lanka in Just 30 Months

•   Bloomberg: Stock Rout Is Fed’s ‘Best-Case Scenario’ as Powell-Put Era Ends

•   Bloomberg: Banks Slash Yuan Forecasts as China’s Economy Reels From Covid

•   Bloomberg: World-Beating Gain for China Bonds Shows Power of PBOC Policy

•   Bloomberg: Three U.S. Shale Producers Are Raising Output as Biden Looks to Tame Oil Prices

•   Bloomberg: Global Fuel-Supply Shock Hits U.S. East Coast Inventories Hard

•   Bloomberg: Samsung Hires Semiconductor Banker Chisari From BofA

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: China’s Campaign to Wipe Out Covid Is Crushing Its Economy

•   Reuters: Climate change putting 4% of global GDP at risk, new study estimates

•   Reuters: Germany would go into recession with Russian energy embargo - minister

•   Reuters: BoE set to walk the line between inflation and recession

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE India tells its states to step up coal imports for three years -sources

•   Reuters: Analysis: Euro peers over the cliff at dollar parity as recession looms

•   Reuters: Analysis: North Korea signals expansive mission for its nuclear weapons

•   Reuters: Analysis: Economic growth risks jolt inflation-obsessed markets

•   AP: Fauci: US in ‘a different moment’ but pandemic not over

•   AP: EXPLAINER: What’s behind Russia’s natural gas cutoff?

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: China urged to be ‘more precise and scientific’ with controls as economic toll mounts

•   SCMP: China’s big new infrastructure plan prioritises national security in face of ‘extreme conditions’ at home, abroad

•   SCMP: Beijing says US undermining peace by sending destroyer through Taiwan Strait

•   SCMP: China’s investments in EU on downward path, as share among state-owned firms hits 20-year low

•   Global Times: Shanghai to ease restrictions in areas under zero-COVID status; a ‘major step toward lifting lockdown’

•   Caixin: China’s RCEP Trade Gets Off to a Good Start

•   Caixin: In Depth: Why Easing Policies Might Not Revive China’s Property Market Any Time Soon

•   Caixin: China’s Electricity Consumption Growth Slowed Further in April, Industry Body Says

•   Nikkei Asia: Taiwan's rise as chip design hub threatens U.S. dominance

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Xi floats 'global security initiative' with eye on Pacific

•   매경(P1): [단독] 분당 일산 용적률 최소 300%로 상향…역세권은 500%

•   매경: 원화값 날개없는 추락…1300원대 깨지면 금융위기급 충격

•   매경: 달러빚 많은 항공사 직격탄

•   매경: 무역·투자·물가 비상인데…기름 붓는 강달러

•   매경: [단독] 졸업하면 삼성, SK 취업…대학원에 '반도체 계약학과' 설치

•   매경: 정부도 발맞춰서…산업부 'R&D 세혜택案' 기재부 제출

•   매경: [단독] 주담대 한도 확 푼다…무주택자, 신혼부부 내집마련 숨통

•   매경: 지방이전기업 양도·상속세 감면…교육교부금 지방대학에도 준다

•   매경: 2024년 상호출자제한 완화기준 적용

•   매경: 文정부 13만명 늘렸는데…尹정부 "공무원 정원동결"

•   매경: 韓, 액화천연가스 일부…여름까지 유럽에 보낸다

•   매경: [단독] "부하직원 성장 돕는 임원 더 우대하겠다"

•   매경: LG이노텍·삼성전기 실적 순항…1분기 기준 나란히 매출 최대

•   매경: 메타버스 회의가 답답? '홀로그램' 쓰니 극강의 몰입감

•   매경: "코스피 2400까지 갈수도"…증권사 리서치 센터장의 경고

•   매경: 서울 아파트 거래 5개월만에 '기지개'

•   매경: [MK BUSINESS STORY] 전기 아끼고, 자원 나눠쓰고…도시가 똑똑해져야 탄소발자국 줄어들죠

•   매경: [Industry Review] 갈수록 어려워지는 M&A…성공을 위한 5가지 비결

•   매경: [Industry Review] '규제와 보복'은 거두고…기업을 국정운영 동반자로

•   매경: [Issue&Biz] 韓 전기차 인프라 걸음마수준…설익은 지원보다 규제 풀어야

•   한경(P1): 상용화 3년…'진짜 5G'는 없었다

•   한경: 무늬만 5G…자율차·스마트시티 등 혁신서비스 엄두도 못 내

•   한경: "요금만 비싸고 빠른 줄 모르겠다"…아직 LTE 절반뿐인 5G 가입자

•   한경: 인수위 "2026년 6G 세계 첫 시연"…또 '정권 성과물'로 전락하나

•   한경: 고용부 "중대재해 위험, 3주내 현장실태 보고하라"

•   한경: '안방' 주택만 매달린 건설사들…해외수주 비중 줄어

•   한경: 우크라 전쟁·北 도발…정찰위성 산업 커진다

•   한경: 서울 전세→매매 갈아타기 6억 더 든다

•   서경(P1): [단독] 일자리 정부라더니 5만명 증발…산단이 멈춘다

•   서경: [단독]"일감 없고 임금만 뛰어"…영세공장 줄폐업, 4년간 4.3배 늘었다

•   서경: 가뜩이나 힘든데…중기들 '원자재·전쟁·봉쇄' 3중고

•   서경: "투자 유입보다 유출이 2.5배 많아…규제·노동경직성 탓"

•   서경(P1): SK, 16년 만에 '재계 2위' 올랐다

※   공정위: 2022년도 대기업집단 지정결과

•   서경: 소상공인 최저 700만원 지원…'손실보상 패키지' 28일 나온다

•   서경: 한은 "하반기 금융기관과 협력, CBDC 송금 실험"

•   서경: "365일 출근 안해도 됩니다"…개발자 인력난에 이런혜택까지

•   조선(P1): 실외 마스크 해제 新舊 정부 신경전

•   조선: 다시 들썩이는 집값… 안정화는 금융 정책에 달렸다

•   조선: 경제수석에 최상목 유력… 그렇다면 금융위원장은?

•   조선: 인수위 내부서도 엇갈리는 부동산 정책… 시장은 다시 관망세로

•   조선: LG 디스플레이 울고, LG이노텍 웃었다… LG에너지솔루션은 선방

•   조선: 4인가족 PCR검사 100만원, 해외여행 좋다 말았다

•   조선: 서학개미, 5월 세금의 달 앞두고 ‘덜덜덜’

•   조선: 인공지능의 두뇌 ‘AI반도체’ 개발 전쟁

•   조선: 갑자기 전원 끊겨도 정보 그대로 남아있는 ‘라이트 PC’ 개발

•   중앙: 원자재 폭등' 피부로 느낀다…화장품업계, 팜유 대란에 '초민감'

•   중앙: “반도체·배터리만 편애하나”…디스플레이 홀대론 확산

•   동아(P1): [단독]韓美, 바이든 방한前 용산기지 50만m² 조기반환 추진

•   동아(P1): [단독]청년 단순노무직 취업… 작년 40만명 처음 넘어

•   동아: [단독]尹, 6월 나토 정상회의 참석 추진… 美 ‘中-러 견제전선 확대’ 구상

•   동아: 韓기업 매출-순익 증가율, 美日中 모두에 밀려

•   동아: 정부 공언 ‘4월내 CPTPP 가입 신청’ 또 미뤄질 듯

•   동아: 300대기업 사외이사 중 55명은 억대 연봉

•   한국: 원통형' 배터리에 웃고 울고...희비 엇갈린 1분기 K배터리 3사 실적

•   국민: [단독] ‘임대사업자 부활’ 꺼냈다가 주워 담은 인수위

•   세계(P1): 인수위 “기회발전특구 조성, 파격 지원”

•   한겨레: 한국이 미국에 물었다 “ILO 협약 비준, 언제 합니까?”

•   머니투데이(P1): "'노조 편향' 韓에 누가 투자하겠나"…떠나는 카허 카젬 한국GM 사장 일침

•   머니투데이: 2000조 넘은 韓 GDP, '대기업 기준' 2024년엔 높아진다

•   머니투데이: 尹정부 국정비전 "다시 도약하는 대한민국, 함께 잘 사는 국민의 나라'"

•   헤럴드경제(P1): SK하이닉스 1분기 ‘역대급 매출’

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "기업 달러매도 늦춰 수요만 늘어"...외환딜러들, 치솟는 환율에 당황

•   아시아경제(P1): [아시아미래기업포럼]'넷제로' 실현…최태원의 두 가지 제안

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]安 핵심제안 또 패싱… '과학교육수석' 안 만든다

•   아시아경제: ‘탈원전 백지화’ 마지막 퍼즐…인수위, 원안위 놓고 ‘딜레마’

•   이데일리(P1): 尹 공약 실현된다…총수 특수관계인 혈족 6촌→4촌 ‘축소’

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 5만6015명 확진…어제보다 1만9308명 적어

•   연합: 전경련 "한국 UAM 기술, 선진국의 60∼70% 수준에 불과"

•   전자신문(P1): [배터리데이 2022]"中LFP 신경 안 쓴다"

•   전자신문(P1): 원전 종사자 집결...'2022 세계 원자력 엑스포' 개막

•   전자신문: 中 배터리, 4대 핵심소재 생산시설 확대에 13兆 쏟는다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Josep Borrell, Werner Hoyer): Decarbonization Is Now a Strategic Imperative

•   Project Syndicate(Nina L. Khrushcheva): The Origins of Putin’s Totalitarianism

•   Project Syndicate(Yu Yongding): America Has Stopped Playing by the Monetary Rules

•   Project Syndicate(Michael J. Boskin): The Failed Bet on Russian and Chinese Reform

•   Project Syndicate(Javier Solana): Weapons Alone Will Not Resolve the Ukraine Conflict

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The dollar ascendant

•   FT(Alan Beattie): The populist strongmen who are strangely keen on globalisation

•   FT(Lex): Russian gas/Poland: energy war slips toward mutually-assured debilitation

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Trust Iran but Don’t Verify

•   WSJ(Daniel Henninger): Democrats Blew Covid’s Politics

•   WSJ(Karl Rove): How Badly Will the Democrats Lose the Midterm Elections?

•   WSJ(Seth Cropsey): The U.S. Should Show It Can Win a Nuclear War

•   NYT(Peter Coy): Here’s the Secret Ingredient in Economic Growth

•   NYT(Bret Stephens): French Lessons for the Biden Administration

•   WP(Marc A. Thiessen): If Russia starts winning, Americans won’t blame Ukraine. They’ll blame Biden.

•   WP(Daniel W. Drezner): Ukraine and the future of war

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): Indonesia's Halt of Certain Palm Oil Exports Will Lead to a Hungrier World

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): Energy’s Future Is Both Cleaner and Dirtier

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): NATO Membership for Finland and Sweden Is a Sharp Way to Counter Putin

•   MarketWatch(Therese Poletti): Google’s earnings should be a warning to investors in Facebook and other online-ad companies