Global Economic Monitor 220426

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Economic fears hit global equities, commods; Twitter lifts Wall St

※   Twitter-Musk deal lifts Nasdaq

※   Beijing seen at risk of lockdown

※   Macron election win relief short-lived for euro

•   US: US dollar hits highest level in more than 2 years

•   China: Chinese Markets Tank as Investors Worry About Covid-19 Lockdowns

•   Metals: China lockdowns and US rate expectations hit metals

•   Grains: CBOT soyoil futures fall from highs; pull soybeans lower

•   한국: 미국 긴축강화 전망에 코스피 1% 넘게 하락 출발…2,670대

•   한국: 네이버도 카카오도 얻어맞았다…공매도 급증에 주가 뚝뚝

•   한국: 베이징 봉쇄공포에…원화값 1249.9원, 2년만에 최저

[Indicators]

•   US Apr. Dallas Fed manufacturing Index: Texas Factory Production Lost Pace in April -- Dallas Fed

•   Germany Apr. Ifo business climate: German Business Confidence Unexpectedly Improves Despite War

•   한국 3월 기업 직접금융 조달실적: 지난달 국내 주식 발행 9605억…전월대비 30% 이상 감소

[News]

•   WSJ: U.S. Wants to See Russia Weakened, Says Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin After Ukraine Visit

※   Moscow struck Ukrainian railway hubs after Austin and Blinken met with Zelensky; fuel-storage facilities burned in Russia

•   WSJ: Russian Military’s Next Front Line: Replacing Battlefield Equipment Destroyed in Ukraine

•   WSJ: The $67 Billion Tariff Dodge That’s Undermining U.S. Trade Policy

•   WSJ: Senate Tees Up Votes on Biden’s Fed Nominees

•   WSJ: U.S. Nears One Million Covid-19 Deaths

•   WSJ: Sen. Joe Manchin Pushes for Democratic Compromise on Climate Agenda

•   WSJ: Beijing Orders Citywide Covid-19 Testing as Fears of Lockdown Spark Panic-Buying

※   Officials in China’s capital race to snuff out nascent outbreak and avoid repeat of nightmare in Shanghai, where death toll hits 51

•   WSJ: Wall Street Finds New Value in Cash as Global Fears Weigh on Markets

•   WSJ: Twitter Accepts Elon Musk’s Offer to Buy Company in $44 Billion Deal

※   Agreement to take social-media network private marks close of dramatic courtship

•   WSJ: How Elon Musk Won Twitter

•   WSJ: Global Auditing Firms Struggle to Leave Russia

•   WSJ: These People Who Quit Jobs During the Pandemic Say They Have Regrets

•   WSJ: European Wind-Energy Sector Hit in Wave of Hacks

•   WSJ: Inflation Got You Down? At Least You Don’t Live in Argentina.

•   NYT: How Zelensky Tamed Ukraine’s Fractious Politics and Stood Up to Putin

•   NYT: Rapid Inflation, Lower Employment: How the U.S. Pandemic Response Measures Up

•   NYT: Macron’s Win Is Also a Blow to Viktor Orban’s Nationalist Crusade

•   NYT: Putin congratulates Emmanuel Macron on his election victory in France.

•   NYT: Covid Lockdowns Revive the Ghosts of a Planned Economy

•   NYT: Meta plans to open its first retail store as it highlights metaverse-related products.

•   FT: Emmanuel Macron’s election victory over Marine Le Pen in charts

•   FT: Europe dodges populist bullet in French vote

•   FT: Emmanuel Macron’s victory masks France’s ‘fragility’

•   FT: Marine Le Pen vows to stick around despite third failed presidential bid

•   FT: Europe faces critical shortage of metals needed for clean energy

•   FT: Johnson hopes for reset of UK-France relations in wake of Macron’s victory

•   FT: Half of UK small companies say rising costs will hit growth

•   FT: China Covid-19 tsar pushed treatments without revealing business ties

•   Bloomberg: Global Supply Chain Crisis Flares Up Again Where It All Began

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Powell to Hold First In-Person Press Conference of Pandemic Next Week

•   Bloomberg: Treasury Tax Season Provides Preview of Fed’s Balance Sheet Unwind

•   Bloomberg: NABE Survey Shows Wages Rise at a Record 70% of U.S. Companies

•   Bloomberg: Four in Ten U.S. Small Businesses Plan to Raise Prices by at Least 10%

•   Bloomberg: EU, India Agree to Set Up Trade and Technology Council

•   Bloomberg: U.K.’s Johnson Demands ‘Innovative’ Solutions on Cost of Living

•   Bloomberg: BOE May Hold Off on U.K. Bond Sales Given Poor Market Liquidity

•   Bloomberg: ECB Study Sees High Energy Costs Holding Back Household Spending

•   Bloomberg: Xi Puts Ideology Before Economy With Market-Busting Lockdowns

•   Bloomberg: Xi’s Finance Crackdown Grows as Over 40 Officials Ensnared

•   Bloomberg: China Politburo Under Pressure to Help Economy as Covid Spreads

•   Bloomberg: China Lets Banks Ease Financing to Distressed Developers

•   Bloomberg: PBOC Adviser Calls for Growth-Boosting Policy Amid Yuan Risk

•   Bloomberg: Fewer Virus Curbs Help India Manage War-Induced Price Pressures

•   Bloomberg: Rumbling in Options Market Is Sound of Traders Rushing to Hedge

•   Bloomberg: Energy-Hungry Europe Buys Up Supertanker-Sized U.S. Oil Cargoes

•   Bloomberg: Russia Oil Flows Jump to Four Million Barrels a Day as Asia Buys

•   Bloomberg: Breakfast Gets Costlier as U.S. Ratchets Up Food-Price Forecasts

•   Bloomberg: Ships Refueling in China Show How Congestion Is Reshaping Demand

•   Bloomberg: Huawei Rivals Apple, Meta With R&D Spending to Beat Sanctions

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s War Is Turbocharging the World’s Addiction to Coal

•   Bloomberg: Wind Power’s ‘Colossal Market Failure’ Threatens Climate Fight

•   Bloomberg: Why Russia’s War Is Pushing Coal, Energy Prices to New Highs

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Germany to hike 2022 inflation forecast to 6.1% - document

•   Reuters: German cabinet backs possible nationalization of energy firms

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Russia and India in talks to restart coking coal supplies -sources

•   Reuters: Graphic chip price drop raises questions on whether end of shortage is in sight

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. trucking downturn foreshadows possible economic gloom

•   AP: Russia hits rail and fuel targets far from the eastern front

•   CNBC: Central banks need to put rates into the ‘pain zone’ — but the Fed won’t do it, fund manager says

•   CNBC: GE hoping to 3D print concrete components for wind turbines so it can save on transportation costs

•   CNBC: GM says it will produce electric Chevrolet Corvettes

•   CNBC: What is the metaverse and why are billions of dollars being spent on it?

•   CNBC: Mohamed El-Erian: ‘Full-scale stagflation worries’ on China Covid concerns slammed global stocks

•   Fox Business: World in early stages of ‘very significant’ recession: Economist Nancy Lazar

•   SCMP: China food security: Beijing moves to ‘revitalise’ seed industry as coronavirus, geopolitical tensions ramp up supply fears

•   SCMP: China’s food security, spring harvest threatened by excessive zero-Covid measures at local levels

•   SCMP: UN team in China to prepare for likely Xinjiang visit by human rights chief Michelle Bachelet

•   SCMP: China trade: imports of US soybeans rise as Ukraine war, South America drought limit sources

•   SCMP: China to cut forex deposit reserve requirement in ‘clear signal to stabilise yuan’

•   Caixin: China’s Steel Industry Is In for Slower Growth, Ministry Official Says

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan readies $48bn package to ease inflation pain

•   Nikkei Asia: Abe says no need for BOJ to be swayed by yen's depreciation

•   Nikkei Asia: 'Geopolitical powder keg' Asia jacks up global military spending

•   Nikkei Asia: Robot maker Yaskawa says supply 'imbalance' prolonging chip crunch

•   Nikkei Asia: Teardown of China budget smartphone Honor reveals rise in US parts

•   Nikkei Asia: Malaysia's 35% minimum wage hike stirs recovery concerns

•   Economic Times: India's GDP likely to grow 7.5-8 pc in FY23: CII President

•   매경: 尹 "기업·외국인 투자환경 개선"

•   매경: 한국 5월 금리인상 여부…최대변수는 '미국 빅스텝'

•   매경: 수출대금 못받아…대러 무역 中企 울상

•   매경: [단독 / 세종 인사이드] 자리지키기 급급한 탄중위…인수위 요청에도 "세종간다"

•   매경: 1주택자 보유세 완화하면 세수 1조원 줄어

•   매경: 세계국채지수 편입 추진…이르면 내년 9월에 윤곽

•   매경: 美의 중국 반도체 규제…대만 웃고 한국 울었다

•   매경: 34점도 서울 청약 당첨…고분양가에 당첨가점 '뚝'

•   매경: 더 힘들어진 내집마련…서울 전세가율 57% 불과

•   매경: 내달 전국 2만5천여 가구 입주…전월세 숨통

•   매경: 피할 수 없는 탄소중립…스마트공장 전략 한자리에

•   한경(P1): 추경호 부총리 후보자 "법인세 인하 추진…기업 규제도 풀겠다"

•   한경(P1): 회사채 시장 '팬데믹급 쇼크'

•   한경: 지방선거 與野 후보들은 "재건축 규제 완화"

•   한경: 임대차 3법 폐지도 '개선'으로 가닥

•   한경: 이창용 "양극화 해법, 상위 10% 끌어내리는 방식 안돼"

•   한경: IMF "한국 추경 편성…물가·금리 영향 고려를"

•   한경: 대기업 0.03%뿐…日, 어떤 대책도 속수무책 '꼴찌 추락'

•   서경(P1): [단독] 기업만 옥죈 4년…해외법인 매출 절반 넘었다

•   서경: [단독] 해외법인 매출 증가율, 국내의 2배…고용감소 악순환 우려

•   서경: 韓기업 유입에 미소짓는 경쟁국

•   서경: 법인세·상속세 OECD 최고…'징벌적 세금'에 경영권 포기도

•   서경(P1): 빅3+항공우주·에너지·디스플레이·콘텐츠…尹정부 '7대 초격차' 키운다

•   서경: 첨단산업 족쇄 풀고 美수준 稅혜택…文이 멈춘 SMR도 살린다

•   서경: 3년뒤 드론택시 등 UAM 상용화…2027년엔 완전자율주행 이룬다

•   서경: "제2의 반도체로" 제약바이오 혁신委 신설

•   서경: [위기의 K반도체] 中서 점유율 5.5%P 추락…메모리 위주 韓만 '뒷걸음'

•   서경: 한은 "하반기부터 임금 상승 압력"

※   한국은행: 최근 노동시장 내 임금상승 압력 평가 및 시사점

•   서경: "SK그룹 ESG성적 국내 대기업 1위" 시민단체도 '최태원 지속경영' 인정

•   서경: ‘친환경’ 주도하는 현대차그룹…주요 계열사 4곳 RE100 가입 승인

•   서경: 두산에너빌리티, 美에 SMR 공급 본궤도

•   서경: 이용자 정체에…난감한 SKT 메타버스 '이프랜드'

•   서경: 똘똘한 한채 사랑'에 아파트값 양극화 행진

•   서경: 사회적 거리두기 풀리고 새정부 출범까지 맞물려…전국서 '집회 봇물' 터졌다

•   조선: 주문 느는데… “외국인 일손 6만명 펑크” 아우성

•   조선비즈: 애플 뚫은 中 OLED, 아이폰14에 5000만대 탑재 전망

•   조선비즈: ‘축구장 25개’ 세계 최대 반도체 공장… 삼성전자 P3, 하반기 완공된다

•   조선비즈: [세종풍향계] 文정부 ‘미운오리새끼’ 기재부, 尹정부서 ‘백조’ 되나

•   조선비즈: 푼다더니 그대로인 재건축 규제에… 서울 신축 아파트값 반등 시작

•   조선비즈: 코로나 끝나도 퀵커머스는 계속… 물류 스타트업 인기

•   조선비즈: 우회전·차선변경 알아서 척척, 난폭운전 없어… 상암 자율주행차 타보니

•   중앙: [View & Review] 반도체의 힘…대만, 올해 한국 1인당 GDP 따라잡나

•   중앙: 1분기 호실적 예상 반·디·폰, 2분기 이후는 고생길 훤하다

•   동아(P1): [단독]靑, MB-이재용 내달 8일 석탄일 사면 검토

•   동아(P1): 중대재해법 시행 석달 “경찰 - 광역 노동청 - 지청… 한 사고로 3곳 조사받아”

•   문화: 사람대신 음식 운반하고 손님 안내하는 로봇… 월 임대비용 65만원…인건비 절감 효과 충분

•   서울: “주택경기 침체 우려” 조정대상지역 해제 요구 ‘빗발’

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]"탄소중립 피해지역 200억씩 지원"...창원 등 대상

•   머니투데이: [단독]LG전자, 멕시코에 車부품공장 짓는다…LG 전장사업 집결

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 3중 악재 넘었다... 현대차 깜짝실적 [현대차·기아 실적 선방]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 공급망 직접 챙기는 현대차, 배터리 원자재 ‘직구’ 검토[현대차·기아 실적 선방]

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독] '적자늪' 한전, 1분기 LNG 구입만 10조 사상최대

•   아시아경제: 요금동결 엎친데 원가부담 덮쳤다…한전 '정전 위기'

•   아시아경제(P1): 국산 코로나19 백신 이르면 7월부터 맞는다

•   아시아경제: 셰프봇·바리스타봇…산업 판 키우는 기업들

•   아시아경제: [단독]인수위, 내연기관차 퇴출 시점 못 안 박는다

•   디지털타임스(P1): [기획] 집값 들썩이자…분당ㆍ일산 재건축 급제동

•   디지털타임스: AR·VR 연평균 59% 급성장… 삼성·LGD 매출에 날개단다

•   이데일리(P1): '세금지옥' 프랑스에도 다주택자 중과는 없다

•   이데일리: 한국선 年1900만원 종부세 냈는데 佛 이민 가니 0원

•   이데일리: 보유세폭탄 방지법 통과할까…美뉴욕선 연 6% 세부담 상한

•   이데일리: “조세원리에 맞게”..尹정부, ‘부동산세제’ 새 판 짠다

•   이데일리: 다주택자라고 '양도세 폭탄' 韓…美·英 보유기간·소득만 따져

•   이데일리: "다주택 중과, 국제기준 역행…文정부 전으로 되돌려야"[인터뷰]

•   이데일리: 尹정부, `미래 모빌리티` 핵심성장동력으로…2025년 UAM 상용화

•   이데일리: 원자잿값 다 올랐는데…'역대급 vs 최악' 엇갈린 기업 실적

•   이데일리: “LNG 추진선 발주 정점?”…암모니아·메탄올 연료 시대 온다

•   이데일리: 환율 요동치자…기관투자자에 외환거래 내역 주문한 한은

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 7만5944명 확진…어제보다 2.3배↑

•   연합: 삼성·LG전자, 생산 가동률 하락에도 매출은 늘어…프리미엄TV 덕

•   연합: 대기업도 공직도 미련 없이 떠나는 2030…"끝 아닌 과정"

•   전자신문: 자동차도 '구독 경제'...새 먹거리 '서비스' 시장 키운다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Nouriel Roubini): The Gathering Stagflationary Storm

•   Project Syndicate(Yanis Varoufakis): Macron’s Win Is Not Populism’s Defeat

•   Project Syndicate(Jacek Rostowski): Why Putin Wants to Destroy Ukraine

•   FT(Editorial Board): France hands victory to Macron and liberal democracy

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): This is Macron’s chance to shape Europe’s future

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Investors brace for the Fed’s slowdown

•   FT(Richard Milne): Unlike Finland, Sweden inches reluctantly towards Nato

•   FT(Ruchir Sharma): The fat French state is about to get fatter

•   FT(Claire Jones): Central bankers agree: the dollar’s still the top dog

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Russia Squeezes Kazakhstan

•   NYT(Ilya Yablokov): Russia Squeezes Kazakhstan

•   WP(Max Boot): The West is finally giving Ukraine the weapons it needs to win

•   WP(Henry Olsen): Is this the Western alliance’s last hurrah?

•   WP(Henry Olsen): France chose Emmanuel Macron, but it craves full-fledged populism

•   WP(Jennifer Rubin): Macron may have won comfortably. But this is no time to let down our guard.

•   WP(Rokhaya Diallo): Marine Le Pen is now part of France’s mainstream. That should scare us all.

•   WP(Perry Bacon Jr.): Team Biden believed their own hype — and that has cost them

•   WP(Molly Roberts): Biden hasn’t lost young voters’ love. He never really had it.

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): Don't Count On a Housing Slowdown to Improve Affordability

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): French Election Respite From Anxiety Over Rate Hikes, Volatility Will Be Brief

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): Gen-Z Is Modern China’s Unluckiest Generation

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): Biden’s Solar Plans Run Into a Chinese Wall

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): France Election: Macron Win Is an Opportunity, But the Risk of Standoff Remains

•   CNN(Gad Levanon): Spending on consumer goods will likely plummet in the second half of the year