Global Economic Monitor 220408

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks rally late, 10-yr U.S. Treasury yield touches 3-yr high

※   U.S. stocks end higher

※   10-year Treasury yield rises

※   Investors still digesting Fed signals

•   Metals: Aluminium sinks to lowest in three weeks on demand worries

•   Grains: Soybeans firm, corn mixed ahead of U.S. supply and demand outlook

•   한국: 코스피 13일만에 2,700선 아래로…삼성전자 신저가 추락

[Indicators]

•   US Feb. Consumer borrowing: Consumer Borrowing in U.S. Surges by a Record $41.8 Billion

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to 166,000, Lowest Level Since 1968

•   Eurozone Feb. Retail sales: Euro zone Feb retail sales jump y/y on petrol, non-food products

•   Germany Feb. Industrial production: German industrial output rises slightly in February

•   UK Mar. House prices: UK house prices reach record high in March as supply remains short

•   China Mar. Foreign reserves: China’s forex reserves fall by US$26 billion amid ongoing capital outflows following Russian invasion of Ukraine

•   India Mar. Consumer sentiment: Rate of consumer sentiment recovery slowed after second Covid wave: CMIE

•   한국 2021년 자금순환: ‘빚투’ 열풍에…작년 가계 주식투자·대출 사상 최대

•   한국 1분기 FDI: 원자재 가격 급등 충격에도…외국인 韓투자 1분기 최대치

•   한국 2월 카드 승인: 오미크론 뚫고 회식 재개?···법인카드 사용액 14%↑

•   한국 4월 주택사업경기실사지수: 층고제한 폐지 등 규제 완화 기대감… 집값 반전 조짐

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 규제 완화 기대에…서울 아파트값 11주만에 하락 멈춰

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine Calls for More Arms as It Girds for Heavier Fighting Against Russia in the East

※   Russia targeted fuel depots across eastern Ukraine ahead of an expected offensive; ‘The battle for Donbas will remind you of the Second World War’

•   WSJ: U.S. Takes First Enforcement Actions Against Alleged Violators of Russia Export Controls

•   WSJ: Why Russia Doesn’t Want to Default—Even in a Time of War

•   WSJ: How Ukraine Used a Ragtag Arsenal to Thwart Russia’s Air Attacks

•   WSJ: Senate, House Vote to Strip Russia of Favored Trade Status, Back Biden Oil Ban

※   Bills aim to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine; President Biden to sign them into law

•   WSJ: Ketanji Brown Jackson Confirmed as First Black Woman on the Supreme Court

※   Judge will join the liberal bloc of a high court split 6-3 in favor of the conservatives

•   WSJ: Fed’s Bullard Leans Strongly Toward Big Rate Rises, Says Economy Can Take It

※   Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis president said central bank will likely have to raise rates fairly aggressively to get price pressures back under control

•   WSJ: Trump Criminal Probe Is Ongoing, Top Manhattan Prosecutor Says

•   WSJ: As Mortgage Rates Rise, Home Sellers Fear Time Is Running Out to Cash In

•   WSJ: Fed’s Quantitative Tightening Throws a Wrench Into Mortgage-Bond Market

•   WSJ: How Worried Should I Be if I Get Infected With the BA.2 Variant?

•   WSJ: Manufacturers Grind to a Halt in China as Covid Lockdowns Expand

•   WSJ: Shanghai, in Lockdown, Struggles to Feed Itself

•   WSJ: Superyachts, Seaside Apartments and Suitcases Full of Cash: Russians Pour Money Into Turkey

•   WSJ: Israel Shooting in Tel Aviv Leaves at Least Two Dead, the Fourth Attack in Recent Weeks

•   WSJ: Crypto-Like Digital Dollar at Least Several Years Away, Yellen Says

•   WSJ: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Reveals $4 Billion Stake in HP

•   WSJ: Walmart Dangles $110,000 Starting Pay to Lure Truck Drivers

•   WSJ: Tesla, Elon Musk Gear Up to Open Austin Gigafactory With ‘Cyber Rodeo’

•   WSJ: Russian Fish Find Way Onto American Tables Despite Import Ban

•   WSJ: Climate-Reporting Rules Could Let Companies Look Greener Than They Are

•   NYT: A Transformative Justice Whose Impact May Be Limited

•   NYT: European diplomats slowly close in on new sanctions, adding limitations.

•   NYT: A Reinvented Marine Le Pen Threatens to Upend French Elections

•   NYT: Nearly two-thirds of Africans may have contracted the coronavirus, the W.H.O. says.

•   NYT: Facial Recognition Goes to War

•   WP: Biden at war: Inside a deliberate yet impulsive Ukraine strategy

•   WP: Putin’s war in Ukraine united Americans against Russia — to a point

•   WP: Germany intercepts Russian talk of indiscriminate killings in Ukraine

•   WP: Pakistan’s prime minister must face no-confidence vote, supreme court rules

•   FT: ECB inflation split deepens after hawks call for rate rises this summer

※   Rate-setters keen on tightening warned the central bank that it risked ‘falling behind curve’ over soaring prices

※   ECB: Account of the March monetary policy meeting

•   FT: Financial warfare: will there be a backlash against the dollar?

•   FT: Russian attacks on Ukraine civilians stall peace talks, says Turkish mediator

•   FT: How to solve the ‘twin crises’ of energy and climate

•   FT: ‘There is nothing else out there’: why Europe is hooked on Russian gas

•   FT: What to do about the eurozone bailout fund?

•   FT: Olaf Scholz defeated over plan for mandatory Covid vaccines in Germany

•   FT: Banks push Brussels for clarity to avoid ‘over-compliance’ with sanctions on Russia

•   FT: UK businesses face double challenge of rising costs and lower sales

•   FT: A post-Brexit reckoning for services

•   FT: Number of Britons with long Covid reaches new high

•   FT: Half of all new UK cars should be electric by 2028, says government

•   FT: UK’s new energy security strategy branded ‘missed opportunity’

•   FT: Can the Fed shrink its $9tn balance sheet without causing market mayhem?

•   FT: Shanghai Covid lockdown ‘will have a global effect on almost every trade’

•   FT: Russian aluminium producer Rusal calls for Bucha war crimes investigation

•   Bloomberg: Putin Army Regroups for Ukraine Showdown After Invasion Setback

•   Bloomberg: UN Suspends Russia From Human Rights Panel as Dozens Abstain

※   Mexico, Thailand, India among nations seeking a probe instead

•   Bloomberg: Germany Tapped Russian Chatter on Bucha Killings, Spiegel Says

•   Bloomberg: Fed Will Have Hard Time Slowing Inflation, Ex-IMF Economist Says

•   Bloomberg: Inflation Above 2% Is ‘Just Fine,’ BNY Mellon’s Keating Says

•   Bloomberg: Solid Import Volumes Are Still Flowing Through Port of Long Beach

•   Bloomberg: Pelosi’s Infection Brings Covid-19 Closer Than Ever to Biden

•   Bloomberg: EU Backs Russian Coal Ban in First Punch at Energy Revenue

•   Bloomberg: EU Sanctions Hit Snags on Coal Ban Phase-In, Exemptions

•   Bloomberg: EU States Want Faster Green Talks to Cut Russian Energy Reliance

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Other Energy Problem: Relying on Russian Nuclear Fuel

•   Bloomberg: Shanghai Lockdown Risks Becoming Biggest Crisis of Xi’s Tenure

•   Bloomberg: China Fuels Expectations of Policy Rate Cut as Soon as Next Week

•   Bloomberg: India Optimistic on U.S. Defense Talks Despite Russia Strain

•   Bloomberg: Sanctioned Iran and Russia Plan More Trade Shows to Boost Ties

•   Bloomberg: Russia Piles Pressure on Companies as Unemployment Crisis Looms

•   Bloomberg: Bolsonaro Surges in Brazil’s North and South, Closing in on Lula

•   Bloomberg: Dollar Rally Is Coming to an End, According to One Key Indicator

•   Bloomberg: China Traders Bet Promised Stimulus Will Outweigh Covid Outbreak

•   Bloomberg: JPMorgan Says Be Ready for 40% Commodities Rally in Market Shift

•   Bloomberg: Russia Coal and Oil Paid for in Yuan Starts Heading to China

•   Bloomberg: Shale Producers Court European Buyers in Bid for Key LNG Market

•   Bloomberg: A Key Russian Oil Grade Sells Out as Asia Snaps Up Barrels

•   Bloomberg: Full Self-Driving: Tesla’s Long Road to Getting EU Approval for FSD (TSLA)

•   Reuters: Kremlin says Russia has suffered 'significant losses' in Ukraine

•   Reuters: How the U.S. plans to starve Russia's 'war machine' -Treasury's Adeyemo to Reuters

•   Reuters: UK study finds symptoms from Omicron 2 days shorter than from Delta

•   Reuters: China warns U.S. against House Speaker Pelosi visiting Taiwan

•   Reuters: European, Asian coal users scramble for new sources ahead of EU Russia ban

•   Reuters: New lithium technology can help the world go green -- if it works

•   Reuters: Explainer: The Fed's 'QT' plan: Then and now

•   Reuters: Factbox: How Western sanctions target Russia

•   Reuters: Analysis: China's balancing act over Ukraine offers Washington a subtle 'win'

•   Reuters: Special Report: U.S. solar expansion stalled by rural land-use protests

•   AP: EXPLAINER: Can war massacres sway China’s support for Russia

•   CNN: US likely to see a surge of Covid-19 in the fall, Fauci says

•   CNBC: China’s smartphone market could plunge 20% as Covid cases spike — but Apple may see growth

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Shanghai adds 19,982 Covid-19 cases, setting a daily record for the sixth day

•   SCMP: Ukraine war: one possible casualty may be Beijing’s economic relationship with Kyiv

•   SCMP: China’s lockdowns put working class, poor provinces at risk of ‘falling back into poverty’

•   SCMP: China’s draft financial stability law takes aim at ‘scattered’ rules governing systemic risks

•   Nikkei Asia: Toshiba to consider going private under new review panel

•   Nikkei Asia: Apple supplier BOE goes full throttle on OLED offensive

•   매경(P1): [단독] 곡물자급률 20% 첫 붕괴…식량안보 '위기'

•   매경: 전쟁·기후변화발 곡물대란 오는데…비축대책 손놓은 한국

•   매경: [단독] 전략물자 확보도 발등의 불…인수위 "민간이 주도하고 정부가 지원"

•   매경(P1): 부담능력 고려해 보유세 새판짠다

•   매경: 부동산 민심 잡아 국정동력 확보…"조세원리 맞게 세제 개편"

•   매경(P1): '77조' 삼성전자 분기 매출 역대최대

•   매경: 한발빠른 휴대폰 출시·고가 반도체 집중…"삼성, 겨울 이겨냈다"

•   매경: 실적만 보면 '8만 전자' 인데…삼성전자 '신저가' 곤두박질 왜?

•   매경: LG전자, 가전만 잘하는게 아니었네…'이것' 덕분에 사상최대 실적

•   매경: [단독] 인수위, 고소득 사무직 '주52시간 근로' 규제 푼다

•   매경: "부동산 개발·교통대책 세워달라"

•   매경: [단독] 세무사도 헷갈리는 양도세, 쉽게 풀어쓴다

•   매경: 대전·세종, 충청 첫 경제자유구역 '가시권'

•   매경: "잠재성장률 끌어올리려면 한계기업 구조조정 시급"

•   매경: 현대重 "2030년까지 매출 2.5배로 키운다"

•   매경: 석화·정유업계 'C테크'…30조 시장 정조준

•   매경: 삼성重 '바다 위 원자로' 만든다

•   매경: 면세점 직원, 손님에게 "그냥 백화점에서 사세요"…이유는

•   매경: '쌍용차 폭탄 돌리기' 개미만 피눈물…에디슨 쌍방울 이어 KG그룹 주의보

•   매경: 자금 끌어모으는 SK…상반기만 6조 수혈한다

•   한경(P1): [단독] 재건축 단지 발목 잡은 '부담금' 절반으로 낮춘다

•   한경(P1): "삼바·SK바사처럼…" 바이오 꽂힌 대기업

•   한경: "그게 되겠냐" 코웃음 치더니…삼성 성공에 줄줄이 뛰어든다

•   한경: "대기업 진출 늘어나면 투자 선순환 기회 확대"

•   한경: 보유세 올리고 대출 조였더니…서울 월세 비중 40% 육박

•   한경: KDI "경기 하방 위험 커져"

※   KDI: KDI 경제동향 2022. 4

•   한경: 인수위 "적자국채 없는 '35조+α' 추경안 짜라"…기재부는 '난색'

•   서경(P1): [단독] 졸속 공시가…실거래 1건으로 1490가구 매겼다

•   서경: 동·층 무시한 '마구잡이 空시가'…새 정부는 '산정 근거' 밝힌다

•   서경: 공시가 70% 폭등한 文정부 5년

•   서경: 한명이 2만7300가구 산정…공시가 조사인력 태부족

•   서경(P1): [단독] 3년간 10억弗…韓, 우크라에 파격 지원

•   서경(P1): [단독] 'I'의 전방위 공습…尹, 민생에 집중 조직개편 올스톱

•   서경: 장제원 "내각인선 10일 발표" 尹이 직접 '경제드림팀' 공개

•   서경: 70여개 '미니공약' 어찌하오리까

•   서경: '추경호 열공' 관료들…키워드는 청년 일자리·나랏빚

•   서경: 사라진 2% 대출…가산금리 낮춰도 무용지물

•   서경: 운송비까지 껑충…'엎친데 덮친' 레미콘업계

•   서경: 0~9세 소아 절반이 코로나19 감염…접종률은 1%도 안돼

•   조선(P1): 미군기지 간 尹 “강력한 대북 억제”

•   조선: 美 “북한이 무엇을 하든 대응할 준비 돼있다”

•   조선: 北, 대형기념일 몰린 4월… 핵실험·ICBM·SLBM 도발 가능성

•   조선: 추경호 의원·최중경 前장관 경제부총리 후보 막판 경합

•   조선: “신규 확진자 수 2~3주 뒤 10만명대 진입”

•   조선비즈: 文정부 ‘예산通 독식’ 저물고, 尹정부 ‘금정라인’ 뜬다…“정책 정상화 기대”

•   조선비즈: LG전자, TV 판매량 中에 밀려도 웃는다… 수익성 최고 ‘OLED 덕분’

•   조선비즈: [Why] 도요타·아우디가 ‘꿈의 연료’ 이퓨얼에 주목하는 이유

•   중앙: 연체율 0%대 함정…상환 유예된 자영업자 빚 133조 ‘뇌관’

•   중앙: “주식 못 믿겠어”…중위험·중수익 ELS로 갈아타는 개미들

•   동아(P1): [단독]남아도는 백신… 1748만회분 도입 취소

•   동아: 확진후 검사면제 기간 제각각… 학교 45일, 병원은 90일, 출국땐 40일

•   동아: “4.4조 IFC 잡아라” 신세계-한화, 여의도 大戰

•   동아: 증시 흔드는 공매도, 5년 만에 최대규모

•   동아: 반도체 부족 언제까지… 텅 빈 광주 기아차 출고장

•   동아: 중대형 면적 아파트값 5년만에 2배로

•   문화(P1): 성김 “北, 태양절에 핵실험 할 수도”

•   국민(P1): 피로감·두통… 확진자 최대 80% ‘코로나 후유증’

•   국민: 나도 혹시 롱코비드?… 브레인 포그·탈모에 불면증도

•   국민: [단독] ‘문재인표 부동산 감독기구’ 신설, 새 정부서 없던일로

•   한겨레(P1): [단독] ‘유력’ 장관 후보들, 이해충돌 뻔한 ‘사외이사’ 경력 논란

•   한겨레: 재택근무 끝?…“우린 회사 말고 ‘거점 오피스’로 출근한다”

•   경향(P1): 한덕수 자택 수억원에 임대 AT&T…한국 시장 진출 때 ‘정부 특혜’ 의혹

•   경향(P1): 종부세, 새 정부서 재산세와 합치거나 부유세로 전환 유력

•   머니투데이(P1): "다 나자빠진다" 尹당선인이 외친 '최저임금 차등화' 부활?

•   머니투데이: "영세업자들 생존 달렸다"...최저임금 '차등화'하자는 재계

•   머니투데이: "한달 190만원으로 살수 있나" 노동계, 최저임금 차등화 반대

•   머니투데이: 일본은 업종따라, 美·中은 지역마다 최저임금 다르다

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]인수위, 대전에 혁신창업 생태계 지원 '벤처뱅크' 설립 검토

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 2020년 여름, 문닫은 사장님 가장 많았다

•   헤럴드경제: 새정부 출범 직후 ‘소형주택 청약 추첨제’ 확대

•   헤럴드경제: 삼성·LGD “코로나 이후 OLED가 중심 트렌드로 부상”

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): [단독]새정부 출범후 여가부 없애고 중기부 남긴다 [정부조직개편 속도조절]

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 尹, 5월 10일 국방부서 바로 업무시작

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 강경파 돌아온 현대차 노조 '품질협의체' 중단 선언 [새정부, 춘투가 온다]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 경제학계, 올해 성장률 2.7% 전망 "차기정부, 재정확대 최소한으로"

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 한수원, 체코 원전 신규수주 속도낸다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 효자 된 ‘원통형 전지’… K-배터리 실적 견인

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "2050년 천연가스가 가장 큰 에너지원"

•   디지털타임스(P1): [기획] 빚투에 목매는 개미... 폭탄 이고사는 가계

•   이데일리(P1): '신발속 돌멩이'에 건설현장 아우성

•   이데일리: "임대주택 지으면 적자"…6년 동결된 표준건축비 인상 요구

•   이데일리: ‘업역폐지’에 밥그릇 뺏긴 전문건설업계 "이러다 다 죽는다"

•   이데일리: "관리자 없어 공사 못해요"…해외 건설현장 주52시간에 '발목'

•   이데일리: 폐배터리 재활용에 뭉친 민관 협의체, 내달 사업 첫발

•   이데일리: "잠깐 외출했어요"…거리 나오는 격리자들, 분간 안되네

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 19만9836명 확진…누적 1500만명 근접

•   전자신문(P1): 국제선 주간 100회씩 증편, 격리면제에 여행업계 훈풍 분다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(José Manuel Barroso): Avoiding COVID Complacency

•   Project Syndicate(Shashi Tharoor): What Is India Doing in Ukraine?

•   Project Syndicate(Bertrand Badré, Yann Coatanlem): Equitable Capitalism or Bust

•   Project Syndicate(Niels Fuglsang): A Cure for Europe’s Addiction to Russian Energy

•   FT(Editorial Board): Biden Wants to Be No. 1—in Taxes

•   FT(Editorial Board): Preventing a crisis in emerging markets

•   FT(Editorial Board): Cutting usage is key to UK energy security

•   FT(Gillian Tett): Fallout from Ukraine threatens the G20’s future

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): Branko Milanovic: ‘The forces of self-interest and technology cannot be undone’

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Chartbook X Unhedged: Europe

•   FT(Paul Smith): Time for Europe to reconnect with commodities

•   FT(Helen Thomas): The UK’s energy strategy flunks the key tests

•   FT(David Asher): The US needs to aim its financial punishment at Putin himself

•   FT(Claire Jones): Does sterling’s slide into obscurity foreshadow the US dollar’s fate?

•   WP(Editorial Board): Russia’s war reveals what’s wrong — and right — with the U.N.

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): Democrats’ flawed hate affair with corporate profits and stock buybacks

•   WP(Micheline Maynard): Why the pain of high gas prices hits so hard in the Midwest

•   Bloomberg(Bloomberg Opinion): Has the Federal Reserve Lost the Fight Against Inflation?

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): France's Le Pen Risks Being Underrated in Likely Election Runoff Against Macron

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): Putin Has Fallen Victim to the Dictator’s Disease

•   MarketWatch(Michael Brush): This is what you should do in the stock market now, according to three 2022 fund-award winners

•   MarketWatch(Cullen Roche): It’s now clear that the Federal Reserve has made a huge monetary-policy error

•   MarketWatch(George Friedman): This global conflict expert sees a bleak end-game for the Ukraine war and Putin

•   Fox News(Mike Sommers): Time for Biden, Dems to quit demonizing our energy sector and embrace American natural gas and oil