Global Economic Monitor 220405

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks rise with growth names, dollar up on talk of more Moscow sanctions

※   U.S. stocks gain with megacaps

※   Oil prices jump, U.S. dollar strengthens

※   2yr/10yr Treasury yield curve remains inverted

•   Natural gas: European Gas Retreats as Stable Flows Counter Sanctions Risk

•   Coal: U.S. Coal Prices Top $100 a Ton for First Time Since 2008

•   Metals: Falling stockpiles push zinc prices to 4-week high

•   Grains: Ukrainian export woes support US grain markets

•   한국: 코스피, 외인·기관 매수에 0.66% 상승…두달만에 최고치

•   한국: 국채 3년물 금리 급등…한은, 2조 매입 '급한불 끄기' [매경 월가월부]

[Indicators]

•   US Feb. Factory orders: U.S. factory orders fall as expected in February

•   Germany Feb. Balance of trade: German trade jumps in February; Ukraine war to be felt in March

•   China Mar. New Economy Index: Caixin New Economy Index Dips on Shrinking Labor Inputs

•   India Mar. Manufacturing PMI: Factory activity expanded at a slower pace, manufacturing PMI falls to 54 in March from 54.9 in February

•   India Weekly Business resumption index: Business resumption index dips

•   Turkey Mar. CPI: Turkish inflation hits 20-year high of 61% as energy and food costs soar

•   한국 3월 외환보유액: 3월말 외환보유액 4천578억달러…39억6천만달러 줄어

•   한국 4월 소상공인 전망 BSI: 소상공인 경기 전망 16개월만에 최고치

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Zelensky Vows to Hold Russian Forces to Account After Bucha War-Crime Allegations

※   Biden called for a war-crimes trial, and the Ukrainian president said ‘evil has come to our land’

•   WSJ: U.S. Seizes Yacht, Seeking Forfeiture and Ratcheting Up Pressure on Russian Oligarchs

•   WSJ: Release of Ukraine Intelligence Represents New Front in U.S. Information War With Russia

•   WSJ: Ukraine War Drives Countries to Embrace Renewable Energy—but Not Yet

•   WSJ: The World Is Piling on Debt as It Battles Inflation

•   WSJ: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Says Big Risks Loom for the U.S. Economy

•   WSJ: Renewables Are Key to Cutting Emissions Over Next Decade, U.N. Panel Says

※   Human activities in the past decade resulted in the highest average annual global emissions ever recorded

※   IPCC: Working Group III Mitigation of Climate Change

•   WSJ: Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam Pledged Unity, Reaped Division

•   WSJ: Evergrande Reaches Information-Sharing, Fee Deal With Creditors

•   WSJ: U.S.-listed Chinese Firms Get a New Lease on Life—Maybe

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Takes Surprise 9% Stake in Twitter, Sending Shares Higher

•   WSJ: With Inflation Not Letting Up, Shoppers Cut Back on Staples

•   WSJ: AMD Returns to Deal Making With $1.9 Billion Purchase of Chip Specialist Pensando

•   WSJ: Why GM and Ford Stocks Have Driven Off Course

•   NYT: The War Moves East, as Putin Looks for a Victory

•   NYT: Here’s how Russia has avoided defaulting on its debt.

•   NYT: Putin’s European allies

•   NYT: Bristling Against the West, China Rallies Domestic Sympathy for Russia

•   NYT: How the Recoil From Russian Gas Is Scrambling World Markets

•   NYT: South Africa lifts its Covid ‘state of disaster’ after two years.

•   NYT: Wall Street’s Rigid Culture Bends to Demands for Flexibility at Work

•   WP: The war in Ukraine and a ‘turning point in history’

•   WP: Zelensky’s wrenching dilemma – how and when to negotiate with a ‘war criminal’

•   FT: EU prepares more sanctions against Russia after apparent atrocities near Kyiv

※   Charles Michel, president of the European Council, said further sanctions were “on their way”

•   FT: Russian atrocities to bring about fresh round of EU sanctions

•   FT: Macron calls for ban on Russian oil as Biden condemns ‘brutal’ Putin

•   FT: Grim work begins in Bucha gathering evidence of possible war crimes

•   FT: Ukraine war threatens to deepen Russia’s demographic crisis

•   FT: ‘It’s a radical change’: The prospect of Finland joining Nato draws nearer

•   FT: UK needs carbon import tax to meet emissions targets, say MPs

•   FT: UK government seeks to make Covid business loan scheme permanent

•   FT: Clean power groups call for slicker process on UK planning and permits

•   FT: Shanghai lockdown tests the limits of Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policy

•   FT: Stopping the silicon chips falling where they may

•   Bloomberg: U.S. National Security Adviser Says Russia Pivoting to Offensive in Ukraine’s East

※   “All indications are that Russia will seek to surround and overwhelm Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine,”

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Labor Market Is Tightest of Postwar Era, Goldman Gauge Shows

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs Sees More Overstocking Than Reshoring by U.S. Firms

•   Bloomberg: ‘Great Resignation’ Not That Great After All, Fed Study Says

※   FRBSF: “Great Resignations” Are Common During Fast Recoveries

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Coal Power to Fall 45% by Decade’s End in Fossil-Fuel Shift

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Vasle Says Negative Rates May End by Turn of the Year

•   Bloomberg: French Power Crunch Is So Acute Carrefour Is Dimming the Lights

•   Bloomberg: BOE’s Cunliffe Sees Risk of Inflation Undershoot in Ukraine War

•   Bloomberg: China Covid Crisis Grows With Cases Surging, New Sub-Strains

•   Bloomberg: Tehran Says Waiting on U.S. to Reach Nuclear Deal: Iran Snapshot

•   Bloomberg: How Sri Lanka Landed in a Political and Economic Crisis and What It Means

•   Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley Says ‘Bear Market Rally’ Is Now Over

•   Bloomberg: Saudi Arabia Hikes Oil Prices Further Into Record Territory

•   Bloomberg: Russia Oil Production Declined in March, Interfax Report Signals

•   Bloomberg: The Battery Metal Really Worrying China Is Lithium, Not Nickel

•   Bloomberg: Poland Wants Coal Use Beyond EU Net-Zero Date in Security Push

•   Reuters: Omicron sub-variant BA.2 makes up 72% of COVID variants in U.S. - CDC

•   Reuters: Climate change could cost U.S. budget $2 trillion a year by the end of the century, White House says

•   Reuters: BOJ should act in line with global central banks, former Japan government adviser says

•   Reuters: Gilead's remdesivir fails to show benefit in European trial; no fetus risk seen with first trimester vaccination

•   Reuters: Analysis: With capital markets jittery, private equity pounces to finance tech buyouts

•   Reuters: Analysis: Russia-Ukraine fallout starts felling fragile 'frontier' economies

•   AP: EXPLAINER: Why is Europe balking at a ban on Russian energy?

•   CNBC: Russia’s economy is beginning to crack as economists forecast sharp contractions

•   CNBC: Electric and hybrid vehicles will account for nearly half the cars on the road by 2040, Goldman predicts

•   MarketWatch: Stocks are rallying because of what an inverted yield curve says about the Fed and inflation, strategist says

•   MarketWatch: U.S. economy will fall into a recession this summer, as inflation eats into consumer spending, former Fed official warns

•   Fox Business: Biden's budget proposal rife with 'laughable assumptions': Former White House economist

•   SCMP: China’s stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine unlikely to have major effect on Asia trade ties, analysts say

•   SCMP: China’s retaliation to South Korea’s planned fines for alleged collusion to fix freight rates feared

•   Nikkei Asia: Mitsubishi Heavy taps U.S. partner for $2bn hydrogen project

•   Nikkei Asia: Toshiba unit to supply 46 onshore wind turbines in Fukushima

•   매경(P1): 용산, 국가 상징으로…지금이 기회

•   매경(P1): 반도체·전자·철강·화학 덕에…코스피 상장사 역대최대 실적

•   매경(P1): [단독] 감사원, 고용보험기금 새정부 출범 즉시 감사

•   매경: 추경호 경제부총리, 최상목 금융위원장, 김소영 경제수석…윤곽 드러난 경제 내각

•   매경: 갈등만 줄여도 年32조 경제효과…한덕수 '협치'부터 외친 이유

•   매경: 취임초 선심 쓰다 불황의 늪…'새정부 징크스' 이번엔 다를까

•   매경: [단독] 文정부 5년간 16조 적자 늪…'전국민 고용보험' 늦춘다

•   매경: '자영업자 빚 탕감' 배드뱅크 채권 매입에만 20조

•   매경: 입국자 격리조치 풀렸는데…국제노선 재개 더딘 이유는

•   매경: 삼성휴대폰 발열 원인…반도체 설계냐 생산이냐

•   매경: 초거대 데이터센터 지으려…전세계 큰손들 韓 몰려온다 [Digital+]

•   매경: "국내 반도체업계도 초거대 데이터센터 늘어나면 호재" [Digital+]

•   한경(P1): 탄소중립 '대못'…"수조원 청구서 날아든다" 기업들 '초비상'

•   한경(P1): 가계·기업·정부 5000조 빚더미

•   한경: 연봉격차…美 186배 vs 韓 21배

•   한경: 안전규제 강화에 원자재난·금리 인상까지…건설사들 '3중고'에 신음

•   한경: 치솟는 곡물값…"올 가공식품 물가 7% 뛴다"

•   한경: 최저임금·임대료 급증에…문 닫는 점포도 매년 수천 곳

•   한경: "문 앞까지 배송하는 로봇 곧 선보일 것"

•   한경: 정책 '눈치 싸움'…아파트 증여 5년여 만에 최저

•   서경(P1): 美주도 IPEF 이르면 이달 출범…亞 무역질서 뒤흔든다

•   서경: 中 옥죄는 美, IPEF 전면에…尹정부 경제안보 첫 시험대

•   서경: IPEF 닥치는데…韓은 '통상 밥그릇 싸움'만

•   서경: 윤석열 팀 만난 美 "IPEF 위한 韓의 역할 기대"

•   서경(P1): [경제·안보의 핵 전략기술] 반도체·배터리 빼면 생존무기 없어…전략기술 컨트롤타워 시급

•   서경(P1): [단독] "반도체 육성방안 이달 재보고 하라"…尹, 산업부에 지시

•   서경: [단독] 시설투자 세액공제율 20% 이상 상향, 전력 등 인프라 지원도 포함될 듯

•   서경: 코스닥, 영업익 40% 뛰었지만 기업 4곳중 1곳 2년째 적자…실적 양극화 여전

•   서경: “축제·하늘길 다시 열렸다”…여행·항공권 예약 2.5배 폭증

•   조선: [단독] 인수위, 국정 과제에 이재명 공약 포함 검토

•   조선: 그 좋다는 신의 직장 韓銀 1년에 30명 나간다

•   조선: [단독] 대우조선 사장 대선 전날 선출...산은이 “이사회 앞당겨라” 요구했다

•   조선비즈: “달러 중심 경화 확보해야”…한덕수 발언으로 본 尹정부 경제정책방향은

•   조선비즈: 4대 그룹 뭉친 ‘폐배터리 재활용 동맹’, 다음달 본격 가동

•   조선비즈: 반도체제국 꿈꾸는 SK하이닉스, 낸드·파운드리 이어 설계까지 도전

•   조선비즈: 삼성, 갤럭시 S22 美 판매 전작 대비 60% 이상 증가

•   조선비즈: 삼성폰 ‘두뇌’ 엑시노스의 굴욕… 갤럭시S22 FE에 대만 AP 탑재

•   조선비즈: “그만두고 재개발 할래요”… 삐걱대는 ‘박원순표’ 도시재생사업

•   조선비즈: “짐 싸는 애널리스트 많아진다” 위축된 영향력에 입지 줄어드는 리서치센터

•   인베스트조선: 2022 주총 시즌 종료…커진 주주 목소리에 쏟아진 주주 환원책

•   중앙(P1): [단독]尹 취임도 전에 탈'탈원전'…文이 막은 고리2호 연장한다

•   중앙: “숨은 감염 포함 땐 최소 40% 걸려, 어느 정도 집단면역 됐다”

•   중앙: 3040 코로나 후유증으로 60대보다 병원 더 찾았다

•   중앙: 곳간 비어도 재난지원금 뿌린다…"매표 행위"vs"경제마중물"

•   중앙: 그때는 맞고 지금은 틀리다? 산업계 ‘엔저 악재’도 옛말

•   중앙: ‘택진이형’도 못 피했다, 재계 덮친 ‘무보수’ 압박

•   동아(P1): 자영업 빚 1000조 육박… “정부 지원 끊기면 폭발”

•   동아: 매출 30% 줄고 대출이자 껑충… “직원 내보내고 밤엔 대리운전”

•   동아(P1): [단독]산업장관 이창양 유력 - 국토장관 현역 의원 검토

•   동아: 자영업자 “밤 12시까지 영업, 숨통 트여”… 일부 “성급한 조치”

•   동아: [단독]통상기능 부처간 경쟁에… 대통령실이 ‘경제안보’ 직접 챙긴다

•   동아: LGD, 올 OLED 출하 1000만개 넘을듯

•   문화(P1): 尹, ‘노동·연금’ 부터 손댄다

•   한국(P1): '윤석열표 재정준칙' 만든다... 재정건전성, 핵심 국정과제로

•   한국: "돈 풀며 아끼겠다"고? 새 정부 위협하는 3가지 '정책 엇박자'

•   한국(P1): 2030년 40% 온실가스 감축도 말 많은데 ... IPCC는 "43% 줄여야"

•   한국: 尹 인수위 "무늬만 '국정과제' 없다… 지킬 것만 압축적으로"

•   한국: 한국이 엔데믹 전환 첫 국가?... 전문가들 "너무 이르다"

•   국민(P1): [단독] ‘용산 이전 예비비’ 새 뇌관… 尹측 “301억 수용 불가”

•   국민: [단독] 다주택자 양도세 중과 유예… 인수위, 文정부 ‘꼼수’에 꼼수로

•   국민: 대외여건 악화에… 재정·경상수지 ‘쌍둥이 적자’ 우려

•   국민: [관가뒷담] 文정부서 찍힌 KDI… 尹정부서 위상 되찾나

•   서울(P1): 한덕수 ‘내각 인선안’ 통째로 받았다

•   서울: 주택시장 규제 완화 훈풍에도… DSR에 묶인 실수요자 ‘눈치싸움’

•   서울: “자율규제” 선제조치 내놓은 플랫폼 기업… 인수위 기조에 ‘쐐기’

•   세계(P1): 집값 자극 우려에… 인수위 ‘재건축 규제완화’ 신중론

•   세계: 한국신용평가 "주식양도세 폐지, 금융시장 영향 제한적"

•   한겨레(P1): 미·유럽은 횡재세·억만장자세 검토…윤석열 인수위는 감세 몰두

•   경향: “2026년까지 품귀” 비싼 몸 웨이퍼…한국엔 SK실트론이 있다

•   머니투데이(P1): "다주택자, 집 팔아서 다시 집 산다"..양도세 완화 '구멍 숭숭'

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]매년 수만개 버려질 전기車 배터리…재활용 기준 만든다

•   머니투데이: "반도체 공장 지어달라" 계속되는 인도 러브콜…삼성 결정은

•   머니투데이: "출근하래요" 날벼락…2030 직장인 "일주일에 5번 출근 못해요"

•   머니투데이: 코로나 3년차 일자리 관둔 여성, 男보다 3배 많아…이유는?

•   머니투데이: "지난해 90조 벌었어요"…'기금 고갈' 국민연금에 희소식

•   헤럴드경제(P1): “전기료 한시동결 또는 최소 인상”

•   헤럴드경제: 현대차, 올 노사협상 ‘가시밭길’ 예고

•   헤럴드경제: SK하이닉스의 ‘ARM 인수’ 위한 제1과제는?

•   헤럴드경제: ‘시멘트대란’ 대책 정부·업계 엇박자 행보

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 경제안보 띄운 尹… 글로벌 공급난부터 푼다 [원자재 공급망 패권싸움]

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 새정부 또다른 과제 '물가'... "공공요금 인상 최소화해야"

•   파이낸셜뉴스: ‘전기차 열풍’ 지자체 보조금 동났다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 사명에 신사업 담아 ‘이미지 쇄신’… 거래정지 기업들 악용도 [간판 바꾸는 기업들]

•   디지털타임스(P1): 확진자 격리기간 단축 논의… 일반치료 전환도 검토

•   디지털타임스: 인수위, 文정부 부동산·금융규제 뒤집기… "너무 급해도 곤란"

•   디지털타임스: 원자잿값 폭등에 가전제품 가격마저 들썩

•   이데일리(P1): "급할 것 없다"..강남·재건축 자취 감춘 매매시장

•   이데일리: [르포]尹, 양도세 한시 완화 예고에도 지켜만 보는 강남

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 25만9636명 확진…어제보다 13만1744명↑

•   연합: 김여정 "南향해 총포탄 한발도 안쏠것…같은민족 무력상대아냐"

•   연합: "불안심리 완화-재고 증대에 하반기 국제 원자재가 안정화 전망"

•   전자신문(P1): 산업 DX, '대-중기 격차' 해소 핵심 과제로

•   전자신문: 에너지 가격 상승...삼성·LG전자 물류비 부담 커졌다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Kati Marton): Send Merkel to Moscow

•   Project Syndicate(Jim O’Neill): The End of the “Global Savings Glut”?

•   Project Syndicate(Riccardo Puliti): The Infrastructure of Recovery

•   Project Syndicate(Bálint Magyar, Bálint Madlovics): Hungary's Manipulated Election

•   FT(Editorial Board): Hungary’s illiberal leader wins a fourth term

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Orban’s victory sends a warning to the west

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Keep your eyes on US housing

•   FT(Jonathan Guthrie): ESG is a category error that needs unbundling

•   FT(Harold James): Inflation may pave the way to a new era of globalisation

•   FT(Lex): Secondary sanctions: unilateral escalation by US would lack punch

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Biden’s Ugly Options in Ukraine

•   WSJ(Allysia Finley): You’ll Miss Fossil Fuels When They’re Gone

•   NYT(Peter Coy): The Ruble Has Bounced Back. What Does That Mean?

•   WP(Editorial Board): The Bucha massacre should prompt a forceful response

•   WP(Editorial Board): Europe has tools to stop Hungary’s toxic ruler. It’s time to use them.

•   WP(Adam Lashinsky): Why Elon Musk is buying up Twitter

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): Russia’s War Draws Governments Into Energy Markets

•   Bloomberg(Gary Shilling): U.S. Economy Is Doomed Without Stronger Consumer Spending

•   Bloomberg(Izabella Kaminska): Ukraine War: Russia’s Push Into Crypto, Bitcoin, Gold Is a Big Step Backwards

•   Fox News(Nikki Haley): Biden's budget would bankrupt America, put national security at risk