Global Economic Monitor 220421

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Nasdaq drags on Wall Street, bond yields dip

※   Bond yields dip

※   Oil steady after earlier losses

※   Nasdaq lower after disappointing Netflix results

•   US: Dollar’s Upward March Reaches a Nearly Two-Year High

•   Metals: Base metals retreats on China's COVID-19 lockdowns

•   Grains: Soybeans climb on U.S. export optimism; wheat sags on profit-taking

•   한국: 코스피 2,710대 약보합 마감…기관 매도

•   한국: '카플레이션'…자동차 값 뛰니 현기차 주가 뛴다

[Indicators]

•   US Mar. Existing home sales: U.S. Home Prices Hit a Record of $375,300 in March

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications: Mortgage demand falls to nearly half of what it was a year ago, as interest rates continue to rise

•   Eurozone Feb. Industrial production: Euro zone Feb production rebounds as expected on consumer goods

•   Germany Mar. PPI: German producer prices surge at fastest rate since records began

•   China LPR: Chinese Banks Hold Lending Rates as Yuan Weakness Looms

•   Japan Mar. Balance of trade: Japan posts trade gap far wider than forecasts as China exports slow, energy imports soar

※   Bloomberg: Japanese Households Are Getting Hit By a Weak Yen, Costlier Imports

•   Russia Weekly CPI: Russian Inflation Is Back to Pre-War Level as Worst Appears Over

•   한국 3월 PPI: 유가 상승 등에 생산자물가 한 달 새 1.3%↑…5년여만에 최대폭

[News]

•   WSJ: Russian Offensive Bears Down on Donbas as West Races to Supply Ukraine With More Weapons

※   Ukraine is reinforcing units as it also counterattacks southeast of Kharkiv

•   WSJ: Putin Oversees Test-Launch of Ballistic Missile He Says Will Make Enemies ‘Think Twice’

※   The Russian president’s comments were his latest nuclear saber-rattling since invading Ukraine

•   WSJ: The Russian Oligarch With the Most to Lose

•   WSJ: Ukraine Needs $5 Billion Monthly to Keep Its Economy Afloat, IMF Chief Says

•   WSJ: Russia Comes Closer to Default After Swaps Watchdog Rules Against Ruble Payments

※   An industry body overseeing the credit-default swaps market says Russia has failed to meet its contractual obligations to foreign creditors

•   WSJ: U.S. Economy Grows Moderately Amid High Inflation, Ukraine Invasion

※   Higher costs and difficulty hiring remain a challenge for business, latest Fed Beige Book report on economic conditions says

※   Fed: Beige Book - January 12, 2022

•   WSJ: Yellen, Powell, Foreign Counterparts Walk Out in Protest of Russia

※   Demonstration by financial officials shows tensions over Ukraine at meetings in Washington

•   WSJ: Fed’s Daly Calls for ‘Expeditious’ Rate Increases to End Year at Neutral Levels

•   WSJ: Airports, Other Transit Split on Requiring Masks After Federal Mandate Is Dropped

•   WSJ: In French Vote, Pocketbook Issues Overshadow Nationalism vs. Globalism

•   WSJ: As Americans Shed Their Masks, Asia Largely Stays Covered Up

•   WSJ: Erdogan’s Main Challenger Is a Wonkish Former Accountant. That May Be What Turks Want.

•   WSJ: Tesla Posts Record Profit

•   WSJ: Twitter’s Jack Dorsey Jabs the Board as Elon Musk Proposes Takeover

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Hints at Twitter Tender Offer With Cryptic Tweet

•   NYT: A Ukrainian Town Goes Underground as Russia Assaults the East.

•   NYT: How Deep Is the Hatred for Macron? It Could Decide the Election.

•   NYT: Shanghai’s Low Covid Death Toll Revives Questions About China’s Numbers

•   NYT: Why Everyone Wants to Buy Twitter

•   NYT: With Inflation, Workers Are Facing Return-to-Office Sticker Shock

•   WP: The war in Ukraine underscores a moment of democratic crisis

•   WP: Does Russia sell nearly $1 billion in uranium to the U.S. a year?

•   WP: Russian presence at G-20 meeting reveals a fragmented global community

•   WP: As covid became more partisan, White Americans were hit harder

•   WP: The summer of revenge travel is coming. No one can afford it.

•   FT: Fiscal relief from inflation is transitory, IMF says

※   Surge in prices will not produce any long-term improvement in public finances

※   IMF: Fiscal Monitor, April 2022

•   FT: Ukraine secures access to 20 more warplanes after spare parts transfer

•   FT: More than 200,000 workers in Russia still on western payrolls

•   FT: Russia reaps reward of domestic payment system after Visa and Mastercard withdraw

•   FT: Why Germany is resisting calls to ease energy crunch by restarting nuclear power

•   FT: Momentum builds for Sweden to join Nato

•   FT: Johnson’s defence allows Tory MPs to delay making a risky decision

•   FT: Johnson vows to lead Tories into next election

•   FT: UK prepared to ‘unilaterally’ tear up Northern Ireland post-Brexit trade deal

•   FT: Johnson and Modi to avoid Ukraine in UK-India trade talks

•   FT: Covid travel mask ruling threatens to tie CDC’s hands on future pandemics

•   FT: Shanghai allows millions to leave their homes as lockdowns hammer growth prospects

※   Banks downgrade full-year growth forecasts for China in light of Beijing’s zero-Covid strategy

•   FT: Scientists urge China to replace its faltering Covid vaccines

•   FT: China’s never-ending story

•   FT: Can the ministry that shaped Japan’s economy rediscover its influence?

•   FT: Rio Tinto’s flagship iron ore mines report weak start to year

•   FT: Novavax publishes positive initial data for first combined Covid and flu vaccine

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Consumers Are Holding Up Well as Rates Rise, Bank of America’s Moynihan Says

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Utilities Face Rising Risk to Green Plans as Gas Costs Soar

•   Bloomberg: Most People Under 50 Don’t Need 4th Shot Yet, CDC Panel Suggests

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Kazaks Says a July Interest-Rate Hike Is ‘Possible’

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Nagel Says a Rate Hike Early in the Third Quarter Is Possible

•   Bloomberg: Scholz’s Hard Power Push No Longer Enough for Germany’s Allies

•   Bloomberg: Germany Rejects Putin’s Demand for Gas Payments in Rubles

•   Bloomberg: French Power Prices Gain on Signs of Corrosion at More Reactors

•   Bloomberg: Macron’s Biggest Election Risk? The Surging Cost of Living

•   Bloomberg: China Says it Will Keep Boosting Strategic Ties With Russia

•   Bloomberg: China Refrains From Taking ‘Whatever It Takes’ Growth Measures

•   Bloomberg: Here’s How China Is Supporting Its Covid-Stricken Economy

•   Bloomberg: Ex-PBOC Official Urges Easing Property Debt Curbs Amid Covid

•   Bloomberg: IMF Says China’s Outflows Show Deepening Divergence With U.S.

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Aggressive Rate Hike Plans Jolt Policy in China and Japan

•   Bloomberg: BOJ Expected to Hold Firm Even as Economists Flag 130 Yen Level

•   Bloomberg: South Africa’s Covid Positivity Rate Hits Three-Month High

•   Bloomberg: Sri Lanka Seeks Bridge Loans as IMF Aid Will Take Six Months

•   Bloomberg: Pakistan Finance Minister Vows Discipline Needed for IMF Loan

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Sanctions Crypto Miner BitRiver Over Russian Operations

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Oil Exports Soar as World Works to Replace Russian Supplies

•   Bloomberg: Idled Trucks Imperil Fuel Demand as China Widens Covid Battle

•   Bloomberg: Apple Faces In-Store Labor Drive as Union Amps Up Pressure

•   Bloomberg: Belgian Nuclear Exit Would Lead to More Emissions, IEA Says

•   Reuters: IMF economist sees risks that inflation expectations climb upward -Reuters interview

•   Reuters: West warns of Russian cyberattacks on critical infrastructure

•   Reuters: For China investors, COVID lockdowns are the clear and present danger

•   Reuters: China's March soybean imports from U.S. fall from previous year

•   Reuters: China exports to North Korea surge with edible oil, wheat flour in demand as trade resumes

•   Reuters: Brazil discussing oil output boost with US amid Ukraine crisis - Minister

•   Reuters: Taiwan's TSMC raises $3.5 bln in bonds for new U.S. plant

•   Reuters: Analysis: Wealth shock - property bust in small Chinese cities rattles households

•   Reuters: Analysis: Positive real yields may spell more trouble for U.S. stocks

•   Reuters: Analysis: Yen's past points to more pain ahead

•   Reuters: Analysis: Inflation prospects to influence BOJ's dovish guidance more than yen

•   AP: Russia’s Chernobyl seizure seen as nuclear risk ‘nightmare’

•   AP: EXPLAINER: Why Mideast tensions are soaring yet again

•   CNBC: If you think inflation’s bad where you live, have a look at Russia

•   CNBC: Energy giants Siemens Gamesa and SSE agree $628 million deal amid rising costs and profit warnings

•   MarketWatch: ‘The Fed always screws up.’ This forecaster sees inflation peaking and U.S. stocks in a bear market by summer

•   Fox Business: US economy facing 'modest' recession next year, Fannie Mae says

•   SCMP: China’s defence chief tells US not to underestimate Beijing’s resolve on Taiwan

•   SCMP: Chinese navy shows off hypersonic anti-ship missiles in public

•   SCMP: Coronavirus Hong Kong: influx of bookings, but businesses face manpower crunch ahead of relaxed Covid-19 social distancing

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Shanghai’s daily new Covid-19 cases dip below 20,000 for the first time in 13 days as weeklong standstill order ends

•   SCMP: China’s EU firms want a say in the policymaking behind Chengdu-Chongqing economic cluster

•   SCMP: Ukraine crisis: China must prepare for ‘fragmented’ trade blocs, global financial crisis, Beijing adviser says

•   SCMP: Russian missteps in Ukraine offer China lessons in better military strategy, stronger troop morale

•   Caixin: China’s Real Estate Woes Push Property Services Firm to Default on Dollar Bond

•   Nikkei Asia: As yen slides, Japan clings to near-zero interest rates

•   Nikkei Asia: Asia's exports to Russia plunge amid Ukraine war

•   Nikkei Asia: ASML sees chip production capacity remaining tight into 2023

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Xi's confidence in aircraft carriers shaken after Russian flagship sinking

•   매경(P1): 尹정부, 원전18기 수명 연장 나선다

•   매경: 국내 가동 원전 24기…수명 늘려 발전비중 키운다

•   매경(P1): 한국, 방역 선진국이라더니…보건의료 전문가 "K방역 D학점"

•   매경: "경기부양 약효 소진됐다…내년에도 2%대 저성장 각오해야"

•   매경: 감염병 또 온다…주먹구구 '방역 사령탑' 일원화 시급

•   매경: [단독] 코로나 2차 추경 최대 '35조+α'…대부분 현금으로 손실보상

•   매경: 검수완박 강행에 기업 비상…"경찰까지 우리 들쑤시면 어쩌나"

•   매경: 산업부, 美주도 경제협력체 IPEF 가입 추진 TF 신설

•   매경: 칼국수도 마음놓고 못먹겠네…밀 1톤 가격, 13년만에 400달러 돌파

•   매경: 前부총리의 쓴소리 "소주성 논란될 때 KDI는 어디있었나"

•   매경: "김대리 20대지? 회사 유튜브 키워"…젊은 직원들 "주먹이 운다"

•   매경: 인재·급여 통큰 투자에 홍보 효과 '딱' 직원 사기 '쑥'

•   매경: 정의선, 신동빈 손잡았다...전기차 충전사업 합작사 추진

•   매경: 카카오, 자체 구독 결제플랫폼 구축 나섰다

•   매경: "재산세 최대 30% 감면"…서울시, 인수위에 제안

•   매경: [MK BUSINESS STORY] "혁신" 명사로 말하는 순간 얼어붙어…"혁신하자" 동사로 말해야 살아난다

•   매경: [Industry Review] 무모함 넘어 뉴노멀 된 M&A…기업 성장 필수 수단으로

•   한경(P1): 저작권 조각투자도 '증권'…금융당국 규제 받는다

•   한경: 일본 닮아가는 한국…"일시 쇼크 아닌 긴 침체 우려"

•   한경: 일본도 발칵 뒤집어진 보고서 "2030년 日반도체 점유율 0%"

•   한경: 선진국 '빚 다이어트' 하는데…韓은 되레 늘어 증가폭 1위

•   한경: 은행, 예적금 금리 올렸다는데…소비자는 "글쎄"

•   한경: "주당 5만원 배당금 지급"…실적 뛰자 통 크게 '곳간' 푼 회사

•   한경: 아랫집 눈치 안 봐도 되겠네…'층간소음' 드디어 잡았다

•   한경: 거리두기도 풀렸는데…끝나지 않은 코로나 '롱코비드'

•   서경(P1): [단독] 尹정부, 수兆 들여 '국가반도체硏' 만든다

•   서경: [단독] 한국판 NSTC 구축…'점유율 1%' K팹리스, 국가 주도로 키운다

•   서경: 업계 "반도체 컨트롤타워 역할…고급두뇌 양성에 큰 도움"

•   서경: R&D·인재·인프라…尹이 쏜 '반도체 세개의 화살'

•   서경(P1): 원자재 대란…종이값 결국 15% 오른다

•   서경: 120조 현금 쥐고도 5년간 M&A '0'…"삼성 사법족쇄 풀어야"

•   서경: "반기업 정서 탓 투자·고용 쉽지않아…'대기업 지원=특혜' 인식부터 개선을"

•   서경: 尹 "기업 크면 근로자도 행복…일자리 늘고 지역경제 성장"

•   서경: [단독]소상공인 지원 추경 30조대 가닥…절반은 빚낸다

•   서경: [단독] 슬림해지는 尹대통령실…경제·과기보좌관 안둔다

•   서경: 尹, 상의회의서 재계 회동…崔에 부산엑스포 유치위원장 제안할 듯

•   서경: 공사 셧다운 면했지만…'보상 불씨' 여전

•   서경: 빚더미에 앉은 한전…"전기료 못 올리면 적자 수렁"

•   조선(P1): 인수위 “섣불리 마스크 해제 말라”

•   조선: 대선 후 경기도 아파트 거래 40% 급증… 1기 신도시가 주도했다

•   조선비즈: 직방·다방 ‘주춤’, 알스퀘어·어반베이스 ‘훨훨’… 희비 엇갈린 프롭테크 시장

•   조선비즈: LCD 패권 쥔 中, 중소형 OLED 공세도 시작… 韓 점유율 70% 위태

•   조선비즈: ‘고물가·저성장’ 경고한 이창용, 한국의 ‘폴 볼커’ 될까…5월·7월 금리인상설 ‘솔솔’

•   조선비즈: 4인 가구 5G 요금 30만원… “통신비만 잡아도 물가 낮춘다”

•   조선비즈: 대기업도 줄 섰다… 가상인간 만드는 AI 스타트업 인기

•   조선비즈: [김남희의 차이나 트렌드] 삼성이 갤S22 홍보에 쓴 중국 왕훙들, 촬영 끝나니 애플 아이폰 꺼냈다

•   인베스트조선: 尹 정부 출범 눈앞…득실 판단 분주해진 자본시장

•   인베스트조선: 장기 우하향하는 삼성전자…누가 대선단 키 잡을까

•   중앙: [단독] 1600억 날릴 뻔…文반대 고리2호 연장 서두른 까닭

•   중앙: [단독]경제성 안따져보고…尹공약 가덕신공항 예타 면제할듯

•   동아(P1): [단독]코로나發 임금 양극화… 대기업 연봉도 최대 1억 이상 차이

•   동아: 인재유출 싫지만 큰 폭 인상은 부담… 기업들 연봉인상 갈등에 고심 거듭

•   동아(P1): [단독]바이든 내달 20일 방한… 21일 尹과 정상회담 유력

•   동아: 거리두기에 고꾸라진 酒稅… 10년만에 최소

•   동아: 자재값 급등에 주택공사 중단 속출… “분양가 뛰고 공급 늦어질것”

•   동아: 단결권 강화한 ILO협약 발효… 勞 “추가 법개정을” 使 “교섭 혼란”

•   문화(P1): 5년간 기업구조조정 실패 …“産銀 대대적 손질하라”

•   문화(P1): 내달 1일부터 정상 등교… 대규모 지역축제도 부활

•   문화: 산업계, 중노위發 ‘단협 리스크’ 초긴장

•   데일리한국: [단독] 한수원, 바라카 원전 추가계약도 없이 운영시험 후 ‘뒷수습’

•   국민: 코로나로 풀린 돈의 역습… 물가도 집값도 3년 연속 高高?

•   서울: 너도나도 분양 미루기…서울 ‘공급 가뭄’ 우려

•   서울: 사업 확장 알리고 이미지 쇄신… 사명 변경 붐

•   세계(P1): [단독] 文정부 ‘예타’후 감시 뒷짐… 총 2조 10개 사업 관리누락

•   세계: 경제성 부족에 추가 사업비 눈덩이… 나랏빚 폭증 ‘부메랑’

•   세계: 한국판 뉴딜·공공 일자리 예산 삭감… 尹정부, 국채관리 방침 전망

•   한겨레: [단독] 주식 양도소득 전면 과세, 윤석열 공약에 시행 전 ‘재검토’

•   한겨레: 일터 약자일수록 PCR 검사 덜 받고 계속 일한다

•   경향(P1): “6~7월 코로나 새 우세종 유행…최대 2000만명 확진 전망”

•   머니투데이(P1): 배 만들 사람 모자란데…"일본꼴 난다" 외국인력 막는 노조

•   머니투데이: "창원의 특산물요? 수소입니다"…내년 수소자립 이룬다

•   머니투데이: 애플 박차고 나온 韓 엔지니어...中 주도 태양광 시장 판 뒤집는다

•   헤럴드경제: 후판값 ‘이달 마무리 vs 최소폭 인상’

•   헤럴드경제: 최저임금, 결국 ‘산식’대로…번번이 물 건너간 ‘차등적용’

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): [단독]임대차3법 결국 대수술…민주당도 한발 후퇴

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 다쓴 페트병으로 대체 철근 만든다... SK에코플랜트 세계첫 양산

•   파이낸셜뉴스: [단독]선거 앞에 꼬리내린 민주당… 尹, 부동산 정책 전환 물꼬트나

•   파이낸셜뉴스: ‘글로벌 공급망 교란’ 뉴노멀 되나… "기업 가격경쟁력 약화로 이어질 수도" [글로벌 원자재대란 장기화]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 경제단체 "국민연금 대표소송 수탁위 이관은 헌법 위반"

•   아시아경제(P1): 집 팔기도 사기도 겁나는 '물음표 시장'

•   아시아경제: 새 정부 출범 앞두고 세금·금융 깜깜이…부동산 시장 예측 어려워

•   아시아경제: "영끌이요? 글쎄…"2030 패닉바잉도 주춤

•   아시아경제: 전력기금도 탈원전화…4년째 원전인력 양성 예산 ‘제로’

•   아시아경제: '주주 달래기' 자사주 매입 나서는 기업들

•   디지털타임스(P1): [기획] `원청이 죄냐`… 중대재해법 희생양된 기업

•   디지털타임스: [중대재해법에 벌벌떠는 기업들] "서류작업 바쁜데 현장 볼 시간이 어딨나요?"

•   디지털타임스: [중대재해법에 벌벌떠는 기업들] 시민단체 "법 시행에도 사고 이어져… 규정 강화를"

•   디지털타임스: [중대재해법에 벌벌떠는 기업들] "법 개정해 처벌 아닌 사전예방 취지 살려야"

•   디지털타임스: 尹정부 해상풍력·태양광 `제동`… 재생에너지 업계 커지는 불안

•   디지털타임스: "같은 공채인데 현대차만 400만원 더줘"… 계열사간 성과급 갈등

•   이데일리: 허장 IMF 이사 "국가채무 아직 높진 않지만 고령화로 급증 우려"

•   이데일리: [단독]尹, 공무원 정원 동결한다…'철밥통' 조직 대수술

•   이데일리: "규제혁신이 청년 일자리 정책"…인수위, 네거티브 규제전환 추진

•   이데일리: MB땐 한전·文정부선 코트라…尹정부 공공기관 우등생은

•   이데일리: 산업장관 “항공·우주산업 대전환기 맞아…규제 정비 신속 추진”

•   이데일리: `노사 호평` 이정식 고용장관 후보자도 청문회에 발목 잡히나

•   이데일리: 쪼그라든 韓 팹리스, '차량용 반도체' 발판 삼아 기지개 켜나

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 8만7796명 확진…어제보다 2만127명 적어

•   전자신문(P1): "메타버스·6G, 국정과제로 집중 육성"

•   전자신문(P1): 아이폰14, 4800만 화소 카메라 탑재...국내 부품사 '수혜'

•   전자신문: 중고 반도체 장비, 없어서 못판다

•   전자신문: 전경련 “한국 R&D 투자 대비 성과 미흡”

•   전자신문: [미리보는 배터리데이 2022]배터리 장비 기술·트렌드 공유<하>

•   전자신문: 트렌드포스 "2년뒤 값싼 LFP배터리가 삼원계 추월할 것"

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Jason Furman): This Inflation Is Demand-Driven and Persistent

•   Project Syndicate(Barak Barfi): The Russian Coup Fantasy

•   Project Syndicate(Olumide Abimbola, Zainab Usman): How the G7 Can Support Africa’s Climate Agenda

•   Project Syndicate(Sarah Vogel, Marcelo Mena): The Global Methane Imperative

•   FT(Editorial Board): Twitter gives Elon Musk a bitter pill to swallow

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Real rates and recession

•   FT(June Yoon): For carmakers like Toyota, hybrids are a hard habit to give up

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Corporate Tax Reform Worked

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Vladimir Putin’s Gift to NATO

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): How to Kill American Infrastructure on the Sly

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Handing Putin the Nuclear Advantage

•   WSJ(Mitt Romney): Biden’s Errors Worsen Inflation

•   WSJ(Daniel Henninger): Biden’s Foggy War in Ukraine

•   WSJ(Thomas J. Duesterberg): What Janet Yellen Gets Right About the World Economic Order

•   WSJ(Adam O’Neal): Is the French Election a Populist Moment?

•   NYT(Peter Coy): I Spoke to the Experts. Bitcoin Isn’t Going to Change.

•   NYT(Liz Shuler, et al.): From Amazon to Starbucks, America Is Unionizing. Will Politics Catch Up?

•   WP(Editorial Board): Biden’s new drilling plan isn’t the end for the climate

•   WP(Henry Olsen): China is muscling its way into Pacific island nations. The U.S. must push back.

•   WP(Lucky Tran, Oni Blackstock): Now’s not the time to dispense with covid-19 precautions

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): Putin’s Nuclear Threat Makes Armageddon Thinkable

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Netflix, Inflation and the Impact of Reality

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): Euro Weakness May Lead to a Currency Crisis If the ECB Doesn't Act Soon

•   Bloomberg(Karl W. Smith): High Inflation: How Biden Can Use It to His Advantage

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Bernstein): Why Biden Should Want to Be Like Harry Truman

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): France Election: Marine Le Pen’s Plan for Europe Would Be a Gift to Putin

•   Bloomberg(Adam Minter): If We Could Rent iPhones, Would That Help Save the Planet?

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): This Supplier to Chipmakers Is Drowning in Success

•   Bloomberg(Gearoid Reidy, Daniel Moss): A Weakening Yen Is Putting Japan Closer to Its Long Sought Inflation Goals

•   Bloomberg(Kathryn Anne Edwards): Is the Amazon Labor Union a Sign of More Worker Power?

•   Bloomberg(Anne Finucane): How a Carbon Credits Market Can Fund Climate Innovation

•   Fox News(James Jay Carafano): Biden's greatest Ukraine challenge is coming