Global Economic Monitor 220414

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global equities rise despite inflation scares, oil climbs

※   World stocks waver as MSCI World Index lifts

※   U.S. yields fall after producer prices data

※   U.S. crude stocks surge, fuel inventories down

※   UK inflation hits 30-year peak; NZ hikes rates

•   Japan: Yen falls to 20-year low as BoJ holds fast to stimulus pledge

•   Natural gas: European Gas Rises With Lower Flows Via Ukraine, Norway Outages

•   Metals: Zinc soars as smelters duel rising costs, inventories fall

•   Grains: Wheat, corn, soy rally from early declines

•   한국: 코스피, 인플레이션 정점 통과 기대감에 1.86%↑…2,716.49 마감

[Indicators]

•   US Mar. PPI: Supplier Prices Rose Sharply in March, Keeping Upward Pressure on U.S. Inflation

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications: Bankers lower their mortgage demand outlook for the year as rising rates hurt affordability

•   UK Mar. CPI·PPI: UK inflation hits 7% as fuel prices surge

•   China Mar. Balance of trade: Global Trade Hit by Ukraine War, China Lockdowns

※   European consumers curb spending as energy prices surge; Chinese factories slow as authorities battle Covid-19 outbreaks

※   Bloomberg: China’s Exports to Russia Slump After Ukraine Invasion

•   Japan Feb. Machinery orders: Japan Feb. machinery orders fall 9.8%, assessment downgraded

•   Japan Apr. Reuters Tankan index: Japan factory mood brightens in April, outlook flat

•   Brazil Feb. Retail sales: Brazil Retail Sales Beat Forecasts as Omicron Wave Fades Away

•   Russia Weekly CPI: Russian Inflation Spike Fades Again as Consumer Demand Takes Hit

•   Argentina Mar. CPI: Argentina Inflation Surged to 20-Year High In March

•   Canada Benchmark rate: Bank of Canada Increases Interest Rates by Half-Percentage Point, Biggest Jump in Decades

•   한국 3월 고용: 3월 취업자 83만1천명↑…코로나에 대면서비스는 타격

•   한국 3월 가계대출: 금리뛰자 겁먹은 가계대출…사상 첫 `4개월 연속` 감소

•   한국 3월 수출입물가: 유가 급등에 3월 수입물가지수 역대 최고…7.3% 상승

[News]

•   WSJ: Biden Administration to Provide Ukraine With More Intelligence, Heavier Weapons to Fight Russia

※   The moves will enable Ukraine to target Moscow’s forces in Donbas and Crimea and counter an anticipated Russian offensive

•   WSJ: Russian Forces Renew Focus on Southern and Eastern Ukraine

※   Moscow is redeploying troops from Kyiv, as the U.S. moves to boost the intelligence it is providing to Ukraine’s forces and provide more weapons

•   WSJ: Roman Abramovich Asset Freeze Extends to $7 Billion in Jersey and a French Chateau

•   WSJ: Russia’s Oil Industry, Linchpin of Economy, Feels Sting of Ukraine War Disruptions

•   WSJ: The Secret of Ukraine’s Military Success: Years of NATO Training

•   WSJ: Yellen Warns Nations Staying Neutral in Russia’s War With Ukraine

※   The U.S. has cautioned China, India and others not to aid Moscow or undercut sanctions

•   WSJ: After Rapid Recovery, Watch for Sudden Slowdown

•   WSJ: Fed’s Waller Endorses Half-Point Rate Increase This Spring

※   Central bank governor says the economy can weather higher borrowing costs

•   WSJ: Fed’s Barkin Says Economy May Be Shifting to Higher Inflation Regime

•   WSJ: Derby’s Take: The Economic Effect of the Fed’s Balance Sheet? Hard to Say Exactly

•   WSJ: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Says ‘Powerful Forces’ Threaten U.S. Economy

※   Bank’s first-quarter profit fell 42% as it socked away funds to prepare for higher defaults in case of recession

•   WSJ: Transportation Mask Mandate to Be Extended 15 Days

•   WSJ: Rise of Marine Le Pen in France Challenges West’s Unity Against Russia

•   WSJ: Why Is Gasoline Still So Expensive if Oil Prices Have Dropped?

•   WSJ: Holiday Travel Is Back—With Long Lines and Big Waits

•   WSJ: Google to Invest $9.5 Billion in U.S. Offices, Data Centers

•   WSJ: President Biden accuses Russia of committing genocide in Ukraine.

※   “Yes, I called it genocide. It has become clearer and clearer that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of even being able to be Ukrainian,”

•   NYT: U.S. and Ukrainian Groups Pierce Putin’s Propaganda Bubble

•   NYT: Captured Ukrainian oligarch was a figure in the U.S. investigation into Russian electoral meddling.

•   NYT: Russians planted thousands of land mines and booby-traps to ‘kill or maim’ civilians, Ukrainians say.

•   NYT: Weaker oil demand, especially in China, might ease supply crunch caused by sanctions.

•   NYT: China’s ‘Zero Covid’ Mess Proves Autocracy Hurts Everyone

•   NYT: Amazon adds a fuel and inflation surcharge to the fees it charges to sellers.

•   NYT: Russian Tech Industry Faces ‘Brain Drain’ as Workers Flee

•   WP: Russia’s attacks on civilians in Mariupol are ‘war crimes,’ OSCE says

•   WP: As Russia’s war in Ukraine founders, ominous rhetoric gains ground

•   WP: Covid cases rise in Northeast as BA.2 omicron subvariant takes hold

•   WP: A surging U.S. oil industry has reshaped the politics of high gas prices

•   WP: Climate pledges are improving — but still leave world on a disastrous path

•   FT: Finland to decide within ‘weeks’ whether to join Nato

※   PM Sanna Marin and Swedish counterpart discuss security concerns as polls pivot towards membership

•   FT: EU ban on Russian energy would spark ‘sharp recession’ in Germany

•   FT: Biden and Ukraine: from climate champion to oil price panic

•   FT: Why German CEOs are a problem for the corporate sector

•   FT: EU seeks protected status for goods such as Donegal tweed and Limoges porcelain

•   FT: Fed official: It’s ‘fantasy’ to think modest rate rises will tame inflation

•   FT: A fleck of good inflation news

•   FT: Ukraine war compounds WTO internal issues

•   FT: Imran Khan launches campaign against his removal as Pakistan’s PM

•   FT: IEA forecasts global oil market will avoid a ‘sharp’ deficit in 2022

※   IEA: Oil Market Report - April 2022

•   Bloomberg: Putin Says Russia Seeks New Markets as West Rejects Oil Exports

•   Bloomberg: The Hawks Are in Control

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Plans Global Food-Crisis Summit as IMF, UN Urge Action

•   Bloomberg: Shipping Slowdown Exposes Vulnerability of U.S. Economic Growth

•   Bloomberg: EU Warns Putin’s Rubles-for-Gas Demand Would Breach Sanctions

•   Bloomberg: Macron Brought Jobs to Lens But Le Pen’s Taking the Votes

•   Bloomberg: German Power Climbs Above 200 Euros on Higher Gas Costs

•   Bloomberg: Surging Renewable Power Prices in Europe Are Still a Bargain

•   Bloomberg: China Promises to Cut RRR When Needed to Boost Economy

※   Policy moves to happen at ‘appropriate time’: State Council

•   Bloomberg: Here’s How China’s Lockdowns Are Rippling Through the Economy

•   Bloomberg: China’s Banks Are the Last Big Players in Coal Company Financing

•   Bloomberg: China Hesitates on Bailing Out Sri Lanka, Pakistan as Debt Soars

•   Bloomberg: Indian Backdoor for Russian Oil Weakens Calls for European Ban

•   Bloomberg: Sri Lanka Slashed By Fitch as Sovereign Default ‘Has Begun’

•   Bloomberg: Lula’s Lead Shrinks to Narrowest This Year in Latest Brazil Poll

•   Bloomberg: South Africa Gauge Signals Strong First-Quarter Economic Growth

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s War Is Heightening Africa’s Debt Risk, World Bank Says

•   Bloomberg: BOJ Says Won’t Issue Digital Currency to Achieve Negative Rates

•   Bloomberg: ESG Investors Getting Trounced in Global Credit Market Rout

•   Bloomberg: LNG Projects May Get Funding Boost From U.S. Export Bank Plan

•   Bloomberg: European Gasoline Flows to U.S. Slip Amid Pain at the Pump

•   Bloomberg: Synopsys Probed on Allegations It Gave Tech to Huawei, SMIC

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Warns That Hackers Are Trying to Disrupt Energy Sector Technology

•   Bloomberg: Toyota Sees No End to Sticker Shock Amid Tight Car Inventory

•   Bloomberg: Tesla Car Production Faces Slump From Three Week Shanghai Factory Shutdown

•   Bloomberg: France Installing First Wind Farm at Sea a Decade After Approval

•   Bloomberg: There's Still a Way to Reach Global Goal on Climate Change

•   Bloomberg: Climate Promises Put Paris Goal Within Reach If Policies Quickly Follow

•   Bloomberg: Top Coal Mines in India Struggle to Expand as Protests Slow Work

•   Reuters: White House: U.S. has additional sanctions it can impose on Russia

•   Reuters: No relaxation of COVID measures for China, says President Xi

•   Reuters: As inflation surges, Biden's approval rating drops to 41% -Reuters/Ipsos poll

•   Reuters: German economic institutes see sharp recession if Russian gas cut off

•   Reuters: France's EDF could sell renewables to focus on nuclear - BFM

•   Reuters: Exclusive: China's oil champion prepares Western retreat over sanctions fear

•   Reuters: Meta to take nearly half of sales made by its metaverse creators as fees

•   Reuters: Analysis: Russian workers face new reality as Ukraine war sanctions sap job prospects

•   Reuters: Analysis: China's widening COVID curbs threaten global supply chain paralysis

•   CNBC: Chinese carriers are shipping more empty containers than full ones out of U.S. West Coast ports

•   CNBC: Russia’s war in Ukraine threatens to hurt billions, UN warns, as food and energy prices soar

•   CNBC: Biden’s approval falls to new low amid economic pessimism, inflation woes, CNBC survey finds

•   CNBC: WHO says Covid still a global public health emergency even as deaths fall to lowest level in two years

•   CNBC: China’s lockdowns could trigger a logistics snarl that may ‘dwarf’ 2020 and 2021

•   CNBC: California releases proposal to ban new gas-fueled cars by 2035

•   MarketWatch: How bad is the bond-market carnage? This unlikely sector is down 10% as inflation takes a bite out of returns.

•   MarketWatch: How bad is the bond-market carnage? This unlikely sector is down 10% as inflation takes a bite out of returns.

•   Fox Business: Supply chain crisis linked to ‘whole host’ of Biden policy decisions: Former transportation secretary

•   SCMP: Australia-China relations: Solomon Islands faces pressure over security pact as US weighs in, Scott Morrison sends minister amid election campaign

•   SCMP: Taiwan to boost defences of tiny islet outpost Dongyin with short-range automated weapons

•   SCMP: Chinese debt sell-off likely to continue as yield advantage over US bonds disappears

•   SCMP: Chinese semiconductor imports fall as self-sufficiency drive shapes up

•   Global Times: Xi calls for building Hainan FTP with global influence

•   Caixin: In Depth: Shanghai Residents Organize Themselves to Survive Lockdown Chaos

•   Nikkei Asia: Quantum computing ambition: Japan aims for 10m users by 2030

•   Nikkei Asia: TotalEnergies allies with Japan oil company on solar power in Asia

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Xi gives thumbs down to Shanghai, distancing closest aide

•   Mainichi: Rapid currency moves 'undesirable': Japan gov't spokesman

•   Verge: Behind Mark Zuckerberg big plans for AR glasses

•   매경(P1): 동학개미 순매수 67%가 삼성전자

•   매경(P1): 中, 수입품도 PCR검사…항구서 韓기업 발동동

•   매경: 中, 수입물품 항구에 열흘이상 묶어둬…韓기업 물류비용 눈덩이

•   매경: [단독] 中 선박검사도 중단…"검사소 찾아 베트남까지 갈 판"

•   매경: 기재부 출신 총리-부총리-비서실장…尹의 '경제 원팀' 진용

•   매경: 최저임금 후폭풍…주휴수당 못받는 초단기알바 역대최대 230만명 돌파

•   매경: 일시적 2주택, 공시가 합산해 과세 검토

•   매경: 커지는 美 빅스텝 전망…한은 금리 인상에 촉각

•   매경: 미세먼지 줄였는데…LPG차 저공해車서 제외

•   매경: [단독] 美 수소기업 찾은 최재원…합작법인 설립 초읽기

•   매경: 주가 힘 못 쓰는 네이버·카카오…실적 부진·연봉 인상이 발목

•   매경: 빅데이터로 가계부채 예측해보니…분기별 증가율 3% 넘봐

•   한경(P1): 기업들 '금리쇼크' 이자비용만 70조원

•   한경: '이자 폭탄'에 기업 순이익 15조 증발…'좀비기업'은 존폐 위기

•   한경: 내각 17명중 5명 서울대 법대…"능력위주 인선" vs "참신성 부족"

•   한경: 2030년까지 40% 줄인다더니…文정부 공언과 거꾸로 간 탄소배출량

•   한경: 文 "일자리 127만개 늘었다"지만…'경제 허리' 3040은 77만개 줄었다

•   한경: 'UAM 드림팀' 국내 도심 하늘길 연다

•   한경: "6G도 우리가 선점"…삼성, 첫 글로벌 포럼

•   한경: "지금 집 팔아야 하나요?"…집주인들 고민 깊어진 이유

•   한경: 서울·광역시 중형 아파트 값 차이 10억 넘어

•   서경(P1): 현대차, 3억달러 투자해 美서 전기차 만든다

•   서경: "탄소중립 이대론 안돼"…국책硏의 뒤늦은 경고

•   서경: 열석발언이 뭐길래…이창용 "통화정책 간섭 오해 소지"

•   서경: '부동산 실패' 사과하면서도…尹정부에 집값 경고

•   서경: 한수원, 음식물 쓰레기로 수소 만든다

•   서경: SK바사, 빌게이츠 재단 지원 받아 코에 뿌리는 바이러스 예방약 만든다

•   서경: “공장 돌릴수록 손해”…영세中企 가동률 급락, 대기업과 20%p 차

•   서경: 수주 호황 사이클 온다…조선주 '힘찬 뱃고동'

•   조선(P1): 교육부는 김인철, 통일부는 권영세

•   조선: “집단면역 어려워”… 하루 만에 말바꾼 방역당국

•   조선: [단독] 규제 대못 ‘용인 반도체 클러스터’ 이르면 내달 첫삽

•   조선: “월급 올려준다는데 반대하는 노조, 탈퇴하겠습니다”

•   조선: 대선 이후 서울 전·월세 매물 18% 급감…고개 드는 전세난

•   조선비즈: 치솟는 팜오일 가격에… 종합상사 웃고, 정유사 울고

•   조선비즈: 中 OLED 진격에 화들짝 놀란 삼성D・엘지D…“더 싸게, 더 많이 만든다”

•   조선비즈: 움츠렸던 IPO시장 기지개 켰다...상장예비심사 진행 기업 늘어

•   조선비즈: “10년 뒤를 봐야”… 조선 3社, 兆단위 적자에도 연구·개발 확대

•   조선비즈: 유무상증자로 자금 조달·주주 달래기 나선 상장사...효과는 ‘글쎄’

•   조선비즈: [르포] 원자재 가격 상승 직격탄 맞은 中企… 시화·반월에 기계소리가 멈췄다

•   인베스트조선: 위기' 삼성전자에 JY가 보이지 않는다

•   동아(P1): 60세 이상 오늘부터 4차접종… ‘인원-시간제한 해제’ 내일 발표

•   동아(P1): [단독]한국, 론스타에 패소땐 盧-MB 정부 관료들 책임론 불거질 듯

•   동아: [단독]국책연 KDI “檢 직접수사권 있는 국가, 공직부패 감소”

•   동아: SK ‘가짜 고기’로 ‘진짜 미래’에 투자… “친환경-MZ 食소비 선점”

•   동아: 폐비닐을 다시 원유로… 국내 첫 석유화학사가 캐낸 ‘도시 유전’

•   동아: “로봇이 만든 버거 드세요”… 서빙·배달까지 美 외식업계 無人 열풍

•   동아: “중대재해법, 사고 줄일지 의문… 건설사 과당경쟁 구조 바꿔야”

•   한국(P1): 안철수계 없는 윤석열 정부 내각 인선... '공동정부' 물 건너가나

•   한국: LTV 높이고 DSR 유지할 '한 수'…보금자리론, 인수위 카드로 부상

•   경향: 암모니아·수소만으로 발전…‘무탄소 전력’ 미래 밝힌다

•   머니투데이(P1): "원자재가 상승 4년 더 간다"···전기차 대중화, '가격 허들' 만났다

•   머니투데이(P1): 최수연의 '팀네이버' 5년 안에 '150조 기업' 만든다

•   머니투데이: [단독]최태원 만난 美 상원...尹 당선인 특사와 배터리 논의

•   머니투데이: "주 120시간이라도"...尹당선인, 한노총에 협조 구할까

•   머니투데이: "깜짝 발탁" "전문성 합격점"...새 장관 지명, 관가 반응은?

•   머니투데이: [단독]르노코리아, 부산공장 3년만에 증산 추진… 경영정상화 속도

•   헤럴드경제(P1): ‘尹 반도체’ 투자세액공제율 최대 25%까지 상향

•   헤럴드경제: 尹 ‘반도체 초격차’ 세액공제…부처간 엇박자 해소가 관건

•   헤럴드경제(P1): ‘영리치’는 평균자산 66억…회사원·전문직이 절반

•   헤럴드경제: 기업도 ‘苦물가’에 한숨…비용 압박에 진퇴양난

•   헤럴드경제: 철강-건설업계 할증금 갈등 증폭

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 부산행 거론 산은·수은 뒤숭숭…지자체는 표심 노린 유치전 [정권교체기 휘둘리는 공공기관]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 한화큐셀 "효율 2배 높인 차세대 태양전지 2025년 상용화"

•   아시아경제(P1): 회사채 '금리폭탄'…적자 한전의 비명

•   아시아경제: 자금조달 차질·탈원전…한전 '위기의 끝' 안 보인다

•   아시아경제: 원안위, ‘탈원전 백지화’ 변수 되나…“2년 동안 계속운전 손 못댈수도”

•   아시아경제(P1): 국채 시장은 지금 '외국인 이별정거장'

•   디지털타임스: 정부, 내일 CPTPP 가입 신청 안건 의결

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]우크라 포성에 식은 열기…M&A 거래 10년 최저

•   이데일리: "분위기 꺾였다" VS "반등 확실"…엇갈린 M&A 전망

•   이데일리(P1): 항공 지상직 10명 중 3명 짐 쌌다…운항 정상화 '비상'

•   이데일리: ‘이미지 세탁’…이름 바꾸는 코스닥 기업들

•   연합: 밤 9시까지 14만4512명 확진…6주만에 수요일 동시간대 10만명대

•   연합: 日신문 "윤석열 정부, 5월 쿼드 정상회의 옵서버 참석 타진"

•   연합: '동학개미 눈높이 낮춰야'…목표가 하향 상장사 속출

•   뉴시스: [단독]걷잡을 수 없는 나랏빚…尹정부, 준칙에 '재정기구'까지 만든다

•   아주경제: [단독] 安 모든 일정 중단한 듯...인수위에서 철수하나

•   부산일보: [단독] 최태원 대한상의 회장, 부산월드엑스포 유치 ‘키’ 잡나

•   전자신문(P1): 中 디스플레이 ‘역습’… 韓 ‘세계 1위’ 내줬다

•   전자신문: 애플카, 중앙집중형 OS 추진...후공정 韓 협력사 담당

•   전자신문: '자원 무기화' 뒷전인 한국…"민간 주도 해외 자원개발 서둘러야"

•   전자신문: 반도체 설계 시장 '클라우드' 뜬다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Nancy Qian): What Is China’s COVID Endgame?

•   Project Syndicate(Ben Meng, Anne Simpson ): The Carbon Price Solution

•   Project Syndicate(Jan-Werner Mueller): The Treason of the Conservatives

•   Project Syndicate(Hippolyte Fofack): Africa’s Long Post-COVID Climb

•   FT(Editorial Board): Support Ukraine by helping the poorest at home

•   FT(Edward Luce): US Democrats are facing a world of electoral pain

•   FT(Karen Petrou): Central bankers cannot afford to ignore the pain in commodities

•   FT(Alan Beattie): The necessary hypocrisy of a geopolitical Europe

•   FT(Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala): The supply chain crunch requires co-ordinated solutions

•   WSJ(Daniel Henninger): The Devil Resurfaces in Ukraine

•   WSJ(Michael O’Hanlon): NATO Needs a Better Frontline Defense in Eastern Europe

•   NYT(Spencer Bokat-Lindell): Is a Recession the Only Way to Stop Inflation?

•   WP(Editorial Board): Finland and Sweden belong in NATO

•   WP(Michael McFaul): The West must help Ukraine to win the next phase of the war

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): What to Expect as Inflation Is Getting More Entrenched

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): China Can Teach the West a Lesson on Inflation

•   Bloomberg(Gary Shilling): Eleven Themes for the New Global Economy, Part 2

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Bernstein): Is Donald Trump a Lock for the 2024 Nomination?

•   Bloomberg(Leonid Bershidsky): Yes, Russians Know What Their Military Is Doing in Ukraine

•   Bloomberg(Bobby Ghosh): Macron and Le Pen Have Very Different Visions for Europe

•   Bloomberg(Adam Minter): Lockdown Anger in Shanghai Won’t Fade Anytime Soon

•   Bloomberg(Jessica Karl): It's the Uncertainty That Makes Inflation Terrible

•   Bloomberg(Sarah Green Carmichael): Return to the Office? Managers Shouldn't Overstate the Benefits

•   CNN(Mark Zandi): The Fed's balancing act is about to get a lot harder

•   CNN(Andy Puzder): Biden keeps setting new economic records -- and not the good kind

•   MarketWatch(Robert Brusca): The U.S. must take a strong stance against Russia — harsh sanctions will only raise risks to the world

•   MarketWatch(Brian Frank): The energy independence of the U.S. and its allies is an enduring tailwind for oil and gas stocks

•   Fox News(K.T. McFarland): The choice Biden—and the world—faces in Ukraine

•   Caixin(Vincent Chan): The Cost of China’s ‘Zero-Covid’ Strategy