Global Economic Monitor 220420

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Earnings boost Wall Street while growth fears sink oil

•   Japan: Yen’s slide to 20-year low puts pressure on loose monetary policy

•   Metals: Copper lifted to two-weak peak on China stimulus hopes

•   Grains: Corn pulls back after reaching decade high on supply risks

•   한국: 코스피, 반도체주 강세에 0.95% 상승…2,710대 회복

•   한국: 100엔당 원화값 970원 돌파…美日금리차 커 엔화값 약세

[Indicators]

•   OPEC Mar. Oil output: OPEC+ supply gap widens in March as sanctions hit Russian output

•   US Mar. Housing starts: U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Rise to Fastest Pace Since 2006

•   China Q1 Real estate output: China’s Property Sector Contracts for Third Straight Quarter

•   Indonesia Benchmark rate: Bank Indonesia Maintains Key Rate as Expected, Cuts 2022 Growth View

•   한국 2021년 하반기 지역별 고용 수입 짭짤하다는 소식에 너도나도…2년새 배달원 23% 급증

•   한국 3월 거주자 외화예금: 환율 오르자 달러 팔았다…거주자 외화예금 한 달새 54억 달러 감소

[News]

•   WSJ: IMF Sees Global Economic Slowdown Amid Ukraine War

※   Group says war is fueling higher inflation, trade disruptions, refugee flight

※   IMF:World Economic Outlook, April 2022: War Sets Back The Global Recovery

•   WSJ: Ukraine Rushes to Evacuate Civilians in East as Russia’s Offensive Pushes Forward

•   WSJ: Mariupol, in Ruins, Still Looms Large for Russia and Ukraine

•   WSJ: Ukraine Forms ‘Internet Army’ to Pressure Western Firms in Russia

•   WSJ: Nearly Five Million Refugees Have Left Ukraine, but Steady Flow Now Goes the Other Way

•   WSJ: Janet Yellen Faces Challenge to Keep Pressure on Russia, While Addressing Global Consequences

•   WSJ: Two Fed Officials Doubt Need for Super Aggressive Front Loading for Rate Increases

※   Chicago and Atlanta Fed presidents say interest rate increases won’t cause a recession

•   WSJ: Masks Come Off After Mandate Is Dropped, but Confusion Remains

•   WSJ: Global Airlines Weigh Mask Rules After U.S. Flights Drop Mandate

•   WSJ: Uber, Lyft Drop Mask Requirement After Judge Voids Public Transportation Mandate

•   WSJ: Biden Administration Weighs Next Steps After Judge Throws Out Transportation Mask Mandate

•   WSJ: Should You Wear a Mask Anyway as Federal Mandates Are Dropped for Airports, Airlines?

•   WSJ: Biden Administration Restores Stricter Environmental Reviews

•   WSJ: How U.S.-Saudi Relations Reached the Breaking Point

•   WSJ: Netflix Loses Subscribers Amid Growing Competition, Account Sharing

•   WSJ: IBM Revenue Up 8% on Continued Momentum in Hybrid Cloud Business

•   WSJ: Pricey AI Apps Drive Up Cloud-Computing Spending

•   NYT: The U.S. Races to Arm Ukraine With Heavier, More Advanced Weaponry

•   NYT: Omicron Was More Severe for Unvaccinated Children in 5-to-11 Age Group, Study Shows

•   NYT: China’s Covid shutdowns go far beyond Shanghai.

•   NYT: The W.H.O. chief arrives in India, amid a tussle over Covid death estimates.

•   NYT: Can A.I. All but End Car Crashes? The Potential Is There.

•   NYT: Working From Home, Japan’s Corporate Warriors Rethink Their Priorities

•   WP: What is happening in Mariupol, the Ukrainian city under Russian siege?

•   WP: Biden administration launches $6 billion nuclear plant bailout

•   WP: Russia’s war in Ukraine may boost German interest in military service

•   WP: Europe fears a possible Le Pen presidency in France as a threat from within

•   WP: You don’t have to wear a mask on planes. Do it anyway, experts say.

•   WP: New CDC team: A ‘Weather Service’ to forecast what’s next in pandemic

•   FT: Emerging markets risk financial distress as rates begin to rise, IMF warns

※   Heavy borrowing in dollars and euros, coupled with surge in food and energy prices, hits public finances

※   IMF: Global Financial Stability Report | April 2022

•   FT: Can the EU wean itself off Russian gas?

•   FT: Russia plans to sue over frozen currency reserves, central bank says

•   FT: Scholz defends German decision not to supply heavy weapons to Kyiv

•   FT: Johnson apologises for lockdown breach but denies misleading MPs

•   FT: Baby bust: Pandemic accelerates fall in China’s birth rate

•   FT: Fed tightening sends US ‘real yields’ to brink of positive territory

•   FT: Moderna and Pfizer urged to share vaccine technology with developing world

•   Bloomberg: IMF, World Bank Chiefs Raise Debt Alarm as Options Vanish

•   Bloomberg: World Bank Warns of More Downgrades to Growth Outlook During ‘Exceptional Uncertainty’

•   Bloomberg: Russia Defies Most Dire Economic Forecasts Despite Looming Recession

•   Bloomberg: Russia Is Against Use of Nuclear Bombs in Ukraine, Lavrov Says

•   Bloomberg: Russia Seeks Medical Equipment From India as War Disrupts Trade

•   Bloomberg: Russian Central Banker Nabiullina Gets Hit With Sanctions

•   Bloomberg: Putin Plans to Meet Big Business Owners and Executives Wednesday

•   Bloomberg: Europe Expects to Pay Bulk of Ukraine’s Reconstruction Costs

•   Bloomberg: U.K. Economy Set to Shrink in 2Q, Bloomberg Economics Says

•   Bloomberg: U.K. Prime Minister Johnson Will Not 'Lecture' India About Ties With Russia

•   Bloomberg: Italy Is Ready to Halt Russian Gas Payments If EU Finds a Violation

•   Bloomberg: EU Seeks to Give June Preliminary Opinion on Ukraine Candidacy

•   Bloomberg: Le Pen Mixes Hardline Policies With Social Welfare to Widen Appeal

•   Bloomberg: EU Lawmakers May Back Key Elements of Carbon Market Overhaul

•   Bloomberg: These Are the 23 Measures China Just Unveiled to Save the Economy

※   China’s central bank rolled almost two dozen measures and promises intended to boost lending and support industries

•   Bloomberg: China’s Promises to Support Covid-Hit Economy Fail to Impress

•   Bloomberg: Top China Experts Insist No End to Covid Zero as Deaths Grow

•   Bloomberg: Shanghai Factory Restarts Fall Short on Lack of Parts, Truckers

•   Bloomberg: China’s Top Steeltown Returns to Partial Lockdown, Mass Testing

•   Bloomberg: China’s New Carbon Market Is Gridlocked Awaiting Policy Guidance

•   Bloomberg: China’s Coal and Gas Boom May Help Ease The Global Energy Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Risk of Wider Israel-Palestinian Conflict Grows After Clashes

•   Bloomberg: IMF Warns of Crypto Mining as Possible Dodge on Russia Sanctions

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Natural Gas Is on a Path to `Crazy Prices' With No Relief in Sight

•   Bloomberg: Libya’s Oil Production Drops to Around 800,000 Barrels a Day

•   Bloomberg: Russian Crude Shipments Shrink With Asia-Bound Cargoes Dwindling

•   Bloomberg: IPhone City Is Operating Normally Despite China Covid Lockdowns

•   Reuters: Calling time on QE, central bank asset cull adds new market risks

•   Reuters: Moderna says dual variant booster with Beta more effective vs Omicron than current shot

•   Reuters: Omicron BA.2 overall makes up more than 90% of COVID variants in U.S. - CDC

•   Reuters: Japan's coalition struggles to agree on early extra budget compilation

•   Reuters: Gazprom has not booked Yamal-Europe gas pipeline capacity for May

•   Reuters: Russia eyes construction of oil storage, exporting outlets

•   Reuters: Iraq says it is committed to OPEC+ oil increases -state news agency

•   Reuters: Analysis: Twitter exploring a sale would make free speech an afterthought

•   Reuters: Analysis: Demand for Pfizer's COVID pills lags around the world

•   Reuters: Analysis: As Germany joins LNG import race, a long and crowded track awaits

•   Reuters: Analysis: China's Xi sticks with COVID stance despite anger, economic headwinds

•   Reuters: Analysis: Soaring battery costs fail to cool electric vehicle sales

•   AP: EXPLAINER: How Russia’s eastern push in Ukraine may unfold

•   CNN: Volkswagen is coming for Tesla. Here's how it plans to dominate the US market

•   CNBC: China’s property sector could be turning around, but red-hot growth may be a thing of the past

•   Fox Business: Labor and cement shortage causing ‘perfect storm,’ industry expert warns

•   SCMP: US, Taiwan defy Beijing in ‘sensitive moment’ when pressures are mounting on China

•   SCMP: Explainer | 5 defining moments for the Chinese economy over the past 25 years

•   SCMP: China hails strong Russia ties ‘no matter’ what, vows to safeguard common interests

•   Caixin: Chart of the Day: Foreign Investment Into China Grew 25.6% in First Quarter

•   Nikkei Asia: Asia's nuclear power dilemma

•   Nikkei Asia: Red-hot Chinese chip investment fuels boom in used equipment

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan steps up warnings as yen falls to 128 against U.S. dollar

•   Nikkei Asia: BOJ warning powerless to halt yen sell-off

•   Nikkei Asia: Bain pledges 'no breakup' of Toshiba in buyout offer

•   Economic Times: Domestic financial conditions to tighten in coming months

•   매경(P1): 이창용 "인기 없더라도 금리로 물가 잡겠다"

•   매경: "새정부 추경 이해는 하지만…물가 자극하면 한은 관여할것"

•   매경(P1): 공대 실험실까지 '반도체 대란'

•   매경: '박리다매' 車반도체에 뛰어들 기업없어…2025년까지 공급난 예고

•   매경: 새 차 출고 1년 기다리다 연식 변경되자…"돈 더내라"

•   매경(P1): [단독] 인수위, 상하이發 물류위기에…"유턴 기업 지원을 국정과제로"

•   매경: "리쇼어링 돕겠다"…인수위, 세제혜택·규제완화 '당근'다 꺼낸다

•   매경: '4년뒤 1천조' 韓가상자산 시장, 모래주머니에 신음

•   매경: 소득 52조 늘때 가계 빚은 135조 불었다

•   매경: [단독] 尹 당선인, 다보스포럼 슈바프 만난다

•   매경: "신안 풍력발전 경제성 있나"…인수위, 신재생 과속에 제동

•   매경: "韓 금리 올려도 美보다 인상폭은 작아야"

•   매경: 쌍용차 인수전 4파전…이엘비앤티 재도전

•   매경: 조선업 외국인 고용 확대…용접공·도장공 쿼터 폐지

•   매경: 대기업 임원 전기차로 바꾼다는데…국산차 없어 테슬라 타나

•   매경: "개발자 어디 없소"…한국 스타트업, 인도 아프리카까지 달려간다

•   매경: 원자재發 분양가 인상되나…건설업계 "상승 압박 커져"

•   MBN: [단독] 외교부 "신남방정책 유지 필요" 건의…인수위 "검토 중"

•   한경(P1): '징역·벌금형' 중대재해법, 벌금형 위주로 완화한다

•   한경: 인수위 "중대재해·화평법·주52시간은 기업 족쇄"…전면수술 예고

•   한경: 안전 투자 나섰지만…기업 10곳 중 8곳 "중대재해법 개정해야"

•   한경(P1): [단독] 기관투자가 '뻥튀기 공모 청약' 손본다

•   한경(P1): [단독] LG 가전, 월풀 제치고 세계 1위…'역대급' 격차

•   한경: 국민연금 반대한 안건, 他기관은 80%가 '찬성'

•   한경: 윤석열 경제팀 복병은 '스텔스 부실'

•   한경: 정부 엉터리 금리 전망에 국고채 이자 '펑크'?

•   한경: 24년 만에 덮친 S의 공포…韓 경제, 저성장·고물가 '늪'에 빠졌다

•   한경: "3만개 난립, 세금만 축내"…인수위, 위원회 감축 칼뺀다

•   한경: '국정과제 넣어달라'…지자체 로비전

•   한경: "서울이 아니었다"…전국에서 집값 가장 많이 오른 동네

•   서경(P1): 해외진출 농기업 60% '개점휴업'…식량안보 경보음

•   서경: "해외농장 샀다 5년 안돼 포기"…국가전략 없인 해외진출 농기업 뿌리 못 내린다

•   서경: 4중 쓰나미…글로벌 '식량 생태계 붕괴' 초읽기

•   서경: [단독] 청년 대상 '尹 역세권 반값 주택', 중장년층까지 확대한다

•   서경: "70조 시장 선점" 전기차 폐배터리 법 만든다

•   서경: 천정부지 뛰는 LNG값에…줄인다던 석탄발전 확대

•   서경: 글로벌 NFT시장 16조 달하는데…법·제도는 깜깜

•   서경: K배터리 3사 실적 희비…‘원통형’ LG엔솔·삼성SDI 선전…‘파우치형’ SK온 적자

•   서경: 조직 개편한 카카오, 커머스 사업 키운다

•   서경: "재건축 풀린다" 안전진단 신청 봇물에…자치구는 "상황 더 지켜봐야" 신중론

•   서경: 부동산 전문가 62% "올해 서울 집값 오른다"

•   조선(P1): [NOW] “철근값 올랐다, 공사비도 올려달라” 멈춰서는 건설현장

•   조선: 후보자 7명 사외이사 경력 논란… “문제없어” “이해충돌”

•   조선: 안전하다는데도… 한빛원전 4호, 文정부 5년간 세워둬

•   조선: ‘2030년 온실가스 감축목표’ 법으로 정한 나라, EU 제외하면 한국이 유일

•   조선: [단독]삼성전자 M&A사령탑, 사장 승진… 대형 빅딜 나오나

•   조선: 2년만에...서울서도 미분양 주택 세자릿 수

•   조선: 원자재 대란에도… 콧노래 부르는 두 회사 비결

•   조선: 개미가 들고 있는 삼성전자 올들어 8조 넘게 증발

•   조선비즈: 年 59% 성장세 탄 AR·VR, 디스플레이는 LCD가 대세

•   조선비즈: 한국GM, 일감 없는 부평 2공장 근무 줄이고 700여명 전환 배치

•   조선비즈: [실패한 J노믹스]② 임금·연금, 혈세로 지급하는 공무원 13만명 늘려…국민 1인당 부담, 年 150만원씩 급증

•   조선비즈: 반도체 필수 소재 ‘감광액’ 재고 마지노선 3개월치 붕괴… 80% 日 수입 의존

•   인베스트조선: ‘삼프로TV’ 이브로드캐스팅 상장 본격화...기업가치 목표는 1兆?

•   중앙: [현장에서] “나도 쫓겨났다, 민노총 때문에” 전국서 쏟아진 제보

•   동아(P1): “다시 출근하라고요? 계속 재택 안될까요”

•   동아: “회식인데, 처음 뵙겠습니다”… 신입사원 조직적응, 기업 새 과제

•   동아: 오미크론 변이, XE와 XM도 국내 첫 확인

•   동아: ‘빚투 개미’의 눈물… 강제 처분당한 주식 5조 넘어

•   문화: AP·카메라 ‘UP’…삼성·애플 ‘프리미엄폰大戰’ 예고

•   한국: 임금협상 두고 고민 깊어지는 삼성전자...경쟁사 눈치만

•   경향: CPTPP냐, IPEF냐…한국 정부 다음 무역협정 선택지는?

•   머니투데이(P1): 인구 800만 부울경 특별연합 떴다..동북아 8대 메가시티로

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독] 국내 1위 코인 거래소 업비트, '대기업' 지정된다

•   머니투데이: [단독]인수위 '납품단가연동제' 도입 안한다…"자율 확산 유도"

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 강남·서초 두 곳만 최고가 거래비중 굳건

•   헤럴드경제(P1): “수출채산성 빠르게 악화…대책 세워달라”

•   헤럴드경제: 발길 돌린 노·도·강, 億대 빠진 화성…‘약한고리’부터 흔들

•   헤럴드경제: 이자 오른 만큼 월세도 뛴다

•   헤럴드경제: 역대 금리 인상기에 집값 올라…관건은 금리 아닌 경기

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 전기차發 인력재편 '신호탄'... 현대차 직원 12년만에 감소 [전기차발 노동시장 재편]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 전경련 부활 기지개… 내리막길 수익사업도 반등 [김경민의 적시타]

•   아시아경제(P1): [반도체 인력난]돈 더 주고 복지 늘리고...인재확보 쟁탈전

•   아시아경제: [반도체 인력난]초격차 내세운 尹에 이어 정치권도 산업 육성 가세

•   아시아경제: 한수원서만 '700명' 퇴직 러시…“원전 전문가부터 확보해야”[원전 생태계 복원 전략①](종합)

•   아시아경제: 5년새 반토막 난 원전 수출…尹 ‘구원투수’ 나설까[원전 생태계 복원 전략②]

•   아시아경제: 업계 "공사 재개까지 첩첩산중…일감확보 시급"[원전 생태계 복원 전략③]

•   아시아경제: 샤오미 39만원 5G폰…'괴물 배터리' 좋지만 카메라 아쉬워

•   아시아경제: 사람 대신 절단·용접…로봇이 중대재해법 구원투수

•   디지털타임스: 반도체 미세공정 경쟁 가열… 삼성 `샌드위치` 벗어날까

•   이데일리(P1): 납품대금에 원자재값 반영…인수위 "중기중앙회 대행협상 확대"

•   이데일리(P1): 지난해 주식 계좌 열어보니…“고연령층·여성 수익률↑”

•   이데일리: ‘단타의 함정’ 2040 수익률 마이너스…해법 없나

•   이데일리: 증시로 몰려온 700만 개미…손실에 한숨만

•   이데일리: 주식전문가가 말하는 요즘 시장 성투의 방법은?

•   이데일리(P1): 김현아 "尹정부, 주거안정·세제개편 시급"[부동산포럼]

•   이데일리: 尹 첫 경제수장' 지목 추경호, 내달 2일 인사청문회

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 10만7923명 확진…어제보다 7985명 적어

•   연합: 전경련 "韓GDP 대비 R&D 비중 OECD 2위까지 올라…성과는 미흡"

•   뉴시스: 인수위 "국정과제 최종본, 4월말에서 5월초께 확정"

•   전자신문: "레벨4 자율주행차도 비오면 못 타"...안전규제 강화

•   전자신문: 한전, 전력시장규칙 잇따라 개정 요청…발전사들 반발 조짐

•   전자신문: “제2 ASML 만든다”…네덜란드, 光반도체에 1.5兆 투자

•   전자신문: [WIS 2022] WIS 2022 개막···코로나19 이후 디지털혁신 기술의 미래를 본다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Robert Skidelsky): The False Promise of Democratic Peace

•   Project Syndicate(Philippe Legrain): Can Anti-EU Populism Survive Putin’s War?

•   Project Syndicate(Ngaire Woods): A Perfect Storm for Developing Countries

•   Project Syndicate(이근): What Is South Korea’s President-Elect Facing?

•   Project Syndicate(Margaret Kuhlow): What We Need for Long-Term Peace and Prosperity

•   FT(Editorial Board): The Kremlin’s ‘holy war’ against Ukraine

•   FT(Editorial Board): Russian aggression may cause global starvation

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): Central bankers should think twice before pressing the brake even harder

•   FT(Kathrin Hille): Omicron variant forces Taiwan to re-examine its pandemic strategy

•   FT(Elaine Moore): Musk’s bid will change Twitter even if it fails

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Trials of Jerome Powell’s Dollar

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Fainting Over Presidential Debates

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Biden Mask Mandate Goes Down

•   WSJ(Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.): Elon Musk, Twitter and the Ghosts of the 2016 and 2020 Elections

•   WSJ(Robert C. O’Brien): How to Deter Nuclear War in Ukraine

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Inflation, Interest and the Housing Paradox

•   NYT(Thomas L. Friedman): China and Russia Are Giving Authoritarianism a Bad Name

•   WP(David Ignatius): As Ukraine war shifts, the Russians have every advantage but one

•   WP(Daniel W. Drezner): Both Ukraine and Russia still have a theory of victory

•   WP(Perry Bacon Jr.): Bidenism is failing. The question is how badly.

•   WP(Sebastian Mallaby): In a long struggle with Russia, Biden must think bigger than the West

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): China Is a Lone, Feeble Dove in a World of Hawks

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Market Predictions on Bonds, Stocks Assume All Else Is Equal. What If It's Not?

•   Bloomberg(Robert Burgess): Recession Predictions Are Piling Up. Don't Freak Out.

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): Big Oil’s Windfall Creates a Quandary for the Industry

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Bernstein): How to Read Biden’s Low Approval Ratings Right Now

•   Bloomberg(Rachel Sanderson): Europe Wants Its Supply Chains Close to Home But It's Complicated

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Amid Ukraine War, U.S. Gas Exports Deepen Inflation Woes at Home

•   MarketWatch(Antonia Colibasanu): Putin has launched the first economic world war, and the EU and the West are his targets

•   Fox News(Liz Peek): Biden vs. Biden -- latest policy flip-flops show White House incoherence

•   Fox News(Robert Spalding): Russia and China are ramping up a new cold war and our independence is at risk

•   Fox News(Steve Scalise): Biden's agenda raised prices on everything for everyone

•   Caixin(Zheng Jie): China’s Covid-19 mRNA Vaccine Challenge