Global Economic Monitor 220413

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global stocks pare gains, bond yields slip on inflation data

•   Metals: Shortages, low inventories boost zinc prices

•   Grains: Corn, wheat futures climb on Ukraine woes, U.S. biofuel plan

•   한국: 코스피, 인플레 경계감에 0.98%↓…삼성전자 나흘째 신저가

•   한국: 달러당 원화값 1240원 육박…5일 연속 약세 이어가

[Indicators]

•   US Mar. CPI: U.S. Inflation Accelerated to 8.5% in March, Hitting Four-Decade High

※   Consumer-price index increase from year earlier driven by skyrocketing energy and food costs

※   WSJ: Where Inflation Rose, Cooled the Most in March

※   WSJ: Inflation Report Keeps Fed On Track for Half-Point May Rate Increase

•   US Mar. Fiscal account: Federal Budget Deficit Narrowed 71% in March From Year Earlier

•   US Mar. NFIB Business optimism index: U.S. Small Business Optimism Slides to Almost Two-Year Low

•   Germany Apr. ZEW economic sentiment: German Investor Mood Sours Further Amid War-Driven Inflation

•   UK Feb. Employment: UK unemployment drops to pre-pandemic levels

•   Japan Mar. PPI: Japan's wholesale prices surge 7.3% in FY 2021, fastest pace on record

•   India Feb. Industrial production: IIP growth edges up to 1.7 per cent in February from 1.5 per cent a month back

•   India Mar. CPI: India’s Inflation Soars to a 17-Month High on War Impact

•   한국 2월 통화 및 유동성: “주식 팔아 예적금으로”…2월 통화량 21.8조 증가

•   한국 4월 분양경기실사지수(: 분양시장도 훈풍 부나…주택사업자들 개선 전망

[News]

•   WSJ: Putin Says Ukraine Peace Talks Hit ‘Dead End,’ Vows to Continue Fight

※   Russia overnight attacked Ukraine’s eastern regions; Putin ally detained, while officials probe chemical weapons allegations

•   WSJ: Fed’s Brainard Expresses Confidence in Ability to Reduce High Inflation

※   Central bank official cites diminishing goods prices as a welcome development ahead of planned rate rises

•   WSJ: Former Treasury Official Michael Barr Is Frontrunner for Top Fed Banking Regulator

•   WSJ: Supply-Chain Woes Won’t Be Solved by ‘Reshoring,’ Report Says

※   IMF: Global Trade Needs More Supply Diversity, Not Less

•   WSJ: OPEC Cuts Forecasts for Global Growth, Oil Demand, Citing Ukraine War

※   OPEC: MOMR April 2022

•   WSJ: Chinese Stockpile Food as Covid-19 Concerns Ripple Out From Shanghai

•   WSJ: Shanghai Factory Closures Mount as Covid-19 Lockdowns Hit Supply Chains

•   WSJ: Rocketing Prices Test Europe’s Political Resolve in Confrontation With Russia

•   WSJ: Ukraine Thwarts Cyberattack on Electric Grid, Officials Say

•   WSJ: In Ukraine, a ‘Full-Scale Cyberwar’ Emerges

•   WSJ: Ukrainians Use Drones, Facial-Recognition Software as They Investigate Alleged War Crimes

•   WSJ: Putin Vows Russia Will Return to Moon, Despite Western Sanctions

•   WSJ: Breadbasket Ukraine Is Going Hungry. This U.S. Executive Is Helping Out.

•   WSJ: Sri Lanka Suspends Foreign Debt Payments

※   The country said it needed to conserve dwindling foreign reserves to pay for food and fuel imports

•   WSJ: Soft ‘Core’ Inflation Reading Hands Bonds a Reprieve

•   WSJ: Chaotic Trading in Energy, Metals and Food Spills Into Real World

•   WSJ: Ukraine War Drives Shortage in Pig Iron, Pushing Steel Prices Higher

•   WSJ: Biden to Allow More Ethanol in Gas This Summer in Bid to Lower Prices

•   WSJ: Grocers Push Through Inflation, Passing Higher Prices to Shoppers

•   WSJ: Apple’s Tim Cook Warns Proposed Antitrust Laws Will Leave Users With Less Choice for Privacy

•   WSJ: GM Strikes Deal to Secure Cobalt for Electric-Car Batteries

•   NYT: Globally, inflation is surging amid persistent pandemic disruptions and war in Ukraine.

•   NYT: Covid in the Northeast

•   NYT: Is Another Covid Surge Coming to California?

•   NYT: U.S. Report Describes a Global Retreat on Human Rights and Democracy

※   U.S. Department of State: 2021 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices

•   NYT: Ukraine War Pushes Germans to Change. They Are Wavering.

•   NYT: China Sets Aside Push to Spread Wealth in Pivotal Year for Xi

•   WP: Putin’s war moves Finland and Sweden closer to joining NATO

•   FT: WTO cuts growth forecast to 3% as Ukraine war disrupts global trade

※   WTO: Russia-Ukraine conflict puts fragile global trade recovery at risk

•   FT: Russia relies on ‘payment theatre’ as bondholders prepare for default

•   FT: Sanctions bite Russia, hard

•   FT: Macron and Le Pen count on far-left votes in battle for presidency

•   FT: Macron waters down key pension reform in bid to woo left

•   FT: ‘Living in a fantasy’: euro’s founding father rebukes ECB over inflation response

•   FT: German president scraps Ukraine visit after admitting he would not be welcome

•   FT: Johnson and Sunak fined over Covid lockdown breaches

※   UK prime minister and chancellor pay and apologise after police issue more than 50 penalty notices over partygate

•   FT: Who likes Biden’s big energy pivot?

•   FT: Investor gloom over global growth worst in decades

•   FT: Honda defies electric vehicle mania to bet on hybrid cars

•   Bloomberg: Risk of Global Recession by End of Year Rises on High Inflation

※   Peterson Institute: Economic prospects call for high inflation and slowing global growth

•   Bloomberg: China, Russia Seek Weapons to Hit U.S. Satellites, Pentagon Says

•   Bloomberg: Biden Is Taking All Possible Steps to Curb Soaring Energy Prices, Aide Says

•   Bloomberg: Why Biden's Plan for Cheaper Gasoline Can Also Mean More Smog

•   Bloomberg: German President Steinmeier Snubbed Over Planned Ukraine Visit, Bild Says

•   Bloomberg: Germany Weighs Snubbing India as G-7 Guest Over Russia Stance

•   Bloomberg: Germany Industry CEOs Meet With Scholz as Russia Pressure Mounts

•   Bloomberg: French Economy Slows as Fallout From War in Ukraine Takes Toll on Industry

•   Bloomberg: China’s Li Issues Third Growth Warning as Covid Takes Toll

•   Bloomberg: China’s Covid Outbreak Highlights Weak Lending as Borrowers Hold Back

•   Bloomberg: Iran’s Khamenei Says Talks to Save Nuclear Deal Are ‘Going Well’

•   Bloomberg: Russian Railways Rejects Default, Says It Paid Debt on Time

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Crude Output Will Rise at Slower-Than-Expected Pace, EIA Says

※   EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook

•   Bloomberg: High Prices, Not Virus, Seen Curbing U.S. Summer Driving Demand

•   Bloomberg: The Near-500% Rally in Lithium Is Showing Cracks in China

•   Bloomberg: Electric Car Sales Growth Outpaces Global Battery Charger Installations

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE U.S. to announce $750 million more in weapons for Ukraine, officials say

※   U.S. President Joe Biden's administration is expected to announce as soon as Wednesday another $750 million in military assistance for Ukraine

•   Reuters: U.S. cannot confirm use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, Blinken says

•   Reuters: Putin's top ally in Ukraine arrested, say authorities

•   Reuters: Saudi Arabia leads OPEC decision to drop IEA data as US ties fray

•   Reuters: Analysis: Eyeing win, inflation debate gives Le Pen chance to lay Russia ghosts to rest

•   MarketWatch: ‘Calamity’ may be coming. This stock-market setup looks similar to 1999, says Jeffrey Gundlach

•   SCMP: China GDP: as lockdowns weigh on first quarter growth, will Beijing unleash more stimulus?

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Shanghai backs away from easing lockdowns in ‘low-risk’ areas, even as Covid-19 cases end 10-day record streak

•   Global Times: China doubles down on efforts to unclog transport and logistics arteries

•   Global Times: Falling shipping rates portend slow growth in China’s foreign trade

•   Nikkei Asia: BOJ bucks global tide by amassing more assets

•   Nikkei Asia: Toyota plans 10% production cut in May on supply chain turmoil

•   Nikkei Asia: Kishida eyes Southeast Asia tour to drum up Russia sanctions support

•   Nikkei Asia: China scrambles for cover from West's financial weapons

•   매경(P1): 인수위, 작심비판…"文정부 탈원전이 전기료 확 올려"

•   매경(P1): 年 1만명 늘린 쿠팡 '고용 있는 성장'

•   매경: '쿠팡맨 3년후 10만명' 삼성전자 육박…고용 로켓 탔네

•   매경: '100% 직고용' 중대법 부메랑 되나…고용막는 노동규제

•   매경: 비수도권 물류센터 13곳 시동…쿠세권 따라 일자리도 전국화

•   매경: "9시간 일해 30만원 벌기도"…쿠팡이츠 배달원 50만명 시대

•   매경: [단독] 반도체·AI·6G까지…'反中 포위망' 동참하나

•   매경: 한덕수 "노동계, 글로벌 경쟁력 갖춰야"

•   매경: 韓물가전망 3달새 0.8%P나 올려

•   매경: 은행 대출금리 찔끔 내렸지만…실세금리 급등에 이자부담 쑥

•   매경: 가스 이어 석탄값 치솟자…한전 1분기 8조 적자 전망

•   매경: [단독] 삼성전자, 뉴질랜드서 첫 NFT 발행…갤럭시탭으로 제작

•   매경: 정권교체로 사외이사 대거 공직行…주총 마친 기업들 '난감'

•   한경(P1): 바이든 내달 말 방한…韓·美 정상회담 추진

•   한경(P1): 반환점 돈 윤석열 인수위, 국가 아젠다가 안 보인다

•   한경(P1): '최대 재건축' 둔촌주공 초유의 공사 중단

•   한경: 기재부 "환율 높은 수준 필요하면 시장안정 조치"

•   한경: "이기면 수천억 번다"…LG 이어 삼성 공격한 美 '특허괴물'

•   한경: 삼성전자, 美서 특허소송 가장 많이 당한 기업

•   한경: "퇴직연금 적립금 비율 못 채우면 노조 대표 검증 받으라"는 고용부

•   한경: 배달비만 5700억…'폭풍성장' 배민의 고민

•   서경(P1): 尹의 '반도체 특명'…대학원 신설·인허가 일원화

•   서경: 바이든처럼 '반도체 안보' 외친 尹…'6가지 파격 카드' 꺼냈다

•   서경: 첫삽도 못뜬 SK '용인 반도체 클러스터' 속도 붙나

•   서경: "인력육성 해결 의지 대환영"…기대감 커지는 반도체 업계

•   서경: Y노믹스에 드리운 'MB노믹스 그림자'…"3高 충격파 최소화해야"

•   서경: KDI "전금법 개정땐 빅테크-은행 경쟁…예금금리 오를 것"

•   서경: 결별 1년 반만에…카카오페이-토스 재결합

•   서경: 채권금리 급등에…회사채 대신 '마통' 쓰는 기업들

•   서경: [단독] LG전자, 미래 먹거리로 ‘전기차 충전’ 낙점

•   서경: 현대차, 스마트폰으로 문 열고 시동까지 건다

•   서경: 원료수입 1위 中 봉쇄에 제약업계 비상

•   서경: “6월 유연탄 수급 차질 우려 현실화 하나…”

•   서경: "국내 채권시장도 코마상태"…투자금 '엑소더스'

•   서경: 아파트 절반이 20년 넘어…지방광역시 '신축 갈증'

•   조선(P1): [단독] 대통령 비서실장 김대기, 외교 박진, 고용 김태기

•   조선: 재감염 346명이라더니 실제론 2만6000명 넘어

•   조선: 낮에 받은 태양에너지, 용액에 저장했다가 밤에 전기로 쓴다

•   조선: “개발자 뽑는 사람을 뽑아요” 스타트업 진풍경

•   조선: 대선 끝나자, 압구정 현대 8억 치솟아… 새 정부 규제완화 신중모드로

•   조선: 회사채 금리 뛴다… “빚 적은 기업에 투자하라”

•   조선: 코로나 집콕 효과? 가계 소비 900조 돌파,가전·가구 지출 비중 19년만에 최고

•   조선비즈: 인텔 CEO도 “반도체 달라” 읍소… 초호황 탄 TSMC·삼성전자

•   조선비즈: LG·삼성 ‘맑음’, SK ‘흐림‘… 배터리 3사 실적, ‘모양’이 갈랐다

•   조선비즈: 對중동 수입액, 1년새 두 배 껑충…새 정부 위협하는 ‘자원 무기화’ 시대

•   조선비즈: 코스닥 특례 상장 기업 ‘봇물’…올해 전체 IPO 절반 넘을 수도

•   조선비즈: 10년-3년물 국채금리도 역전될까…증권가 “지금은 성장주도 불안, 현금 보유할 때”

•   조선비즈: 우크라·정책·가격 ‘삼박자’...친환경株 사이클이 돌아온다

•   중앙: 19억 차익 3주택자, 양도세 13.3억→8억으로 줄어든다

•   중앙: 대표발의 212건…‘추경호 법’ 키워드는 다주택·기업 부담 완화

•   동아(P1): [단독]尹, 취임 첫날 국방부 청사 5층서 집무 시작할듯

•   동아: [단독]美, 쿼드 워킹그룹에 한국 참여 제안… 바이든 주도 IPEF 동참도 적극 요구

•   문화: ‘양도세 중과 풀때 팔자’…서울 아파트 매물 20개월來 최대치

•   한국: 한쪽은 억대 연봉, 한쪽은 최저임금…개발자 노동 이중구조 왜?

•   한국: "내가 시장 모르겠습니까"...떠나는 홍남기 작심발언

•   국민: 작게 만든 원자로, 에너지 시장의 ‘게임체인저’ 될 수 있을까 [스토리텔링경제]

•   국민: 미래는 로봇카 시대… 로보틱스에 사활거는 완성차들

•   서울: 새 정부 부동산 정상화 정책 ‘先 조세 개편·後 규제 완화’로 수정

•   서울: 불 붙은 연봉전쟁… 삼성 “협상” 웹젠 “파업”

•   서울: 高분양가·금리 인상에 ‘줍줍’ 옛말… 수도권 무순위 청약 잇달아 미달

•   세계(P1): 정부 ‘집단면역’ 첫 언급… “6~7월 실외마스크 해제”

※   오미크론 변이 ‘XL’ 국내 첫 확인

•   한겨레: 역대 최대 실적 거두고도…‘정규직 채용’ 고작 0.7% 늘린 기업들

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]8월 전세대란은 허구?..서울 전셋값, 이중가격 사라졌다

•   머니투데이(P1): 삼성전자·카카오 '국민株 추락'…배경엔 10조 단타친 외국인

•   머니투데이: "韓 주식 팔아라, 눈높이 낮춰라" 외국계證 목표가 줄 하향

•   머니투데이: '10조 매도' 외국인, 韓 증시서 썰물처럼 빠지는 진짜 이유

•   머니투데이: 세입자만 좋은 '임대차법'…"집주인 당근도 필요하다"

•   머니투데이: '임대차3법 폐지론' 원희룡이 폐기했다..'지역별 차등제' 검토

•   머니투데이: 은마아파트에 전세 쏟아진 이유..'실거주의무'의 두 얼굴

•   머니투데이: 尹당선인·추경호 콕 찍은 '기술탈취'…공정위 '시한부 팀' 운명은

•   머니투데이: 사상 첫 노조 제재?...공정위, '건설사 압력' 민노총 제재 착수

•   머니투데이: 공정위는 왜 이재용을 경고처분했나…37년 묵은 고무줄 잣대

•   머니투데이: "다 죽을 때까지 할 셈이냐"…'업역폐지'에 전문건설업체 아우성

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 무역기술장벽 3966건 역대 최대

•   헤럴드경제: 통계조차 제대로 잡히지 않지만…‘그림자 부채’ 임대보증금 시한폭탄

•   헤럴드경제: “現정부 집권 후반 ‘공공주도 공급대책’ 추진동력 잃을 것”

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): [단독]'나노의 벽' 부딪힌 삼성… "차세대 D램 개발 궤도수정" [김경민의 적시타]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: [단독]삼성 D램 1나노씩 줄이기 한계… 4.5세대 개발로 보폭 줄인다 [김경민의 적시타]

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 폐플라스틱 리사이클링 속도 낸다... 석화제품 원료 10%를 열분해유로 ['친환경' 팔걷은 기업들]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 年 53兆 플라스틱 재활용 시장 공략… 수익·ESG 모두 잡는다 [석유화학의 미래 순환경제]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 채권금리 폭등에 꽉 막힌 돈줄... 기업들 ‘그림자 금융’에 몰린다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 삼성전자, 글로벌 웨이퍼 생산량 1위… 점유율 17→19%

•   파이낸셜뉴스: '5G 특화망' 갖춘 네이버, 로봇사업 주도권 잡는다

•   디지털타임스: 물가폭등에 금리인상 압박 큰데… 영끌·빚투 `뇌관` 건드리나

•   디지털타임스: 국제유가 100달러 아래로 떨어져도 `물가상승` 주범

•   디지털타임스: 고용노동부, 경제부처로 전환된다

•   디지털타임스: 경총 “사회보험료 증가속도 너무 빨라… 정책 뜯어고쳐야”

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]원자재대란마다 중기만 눈물...尹정부, 납품가협상권 강화 추진

•   이데일리: [단독]타임오프 놓고 노사 수장들 담판…尹 한노총 방문 변수될까

•   이데일리: [르포]"대출 빗장 풀었다지만...소득 한도에 막혀 헛걸음"

•   이데일리: 아르헨에 공장 짓고 인니에 산단 조성…기업들 ‘脫중국’ 박차

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 19만2077명 확진…어제보다 1만2721명↓(

•   연합TV: [단독] "국민 항체형성률 75%…집단면역엔 부족"

•   e대한경제: [단독] SK하이닉스, 청주에 새공장 짓는다

•   더구루: [단독] 현대차, 美 앨라배마 공장 3600억 투자…전기차 생산라인 구축

•   전자신문(P1): 반도체 장비난 '후공정' 덮쳤다

•   전자신문: 中 도시 봉쇄에 삼성·LG 긴장 고조...긴급실태조사 착수

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Abe Shinzō): US Strategic Ambiguity Over Taiwan Must End

•   Project Syndicate(Philippe Heim, Bertrand Badré): Inequality Is a Business Risk

•   Project Syndicate(Jayati Ghosh, Debamanyu Das): Hidden Carbon Subsidies Will Destroy Us

•   Project Syndicate(Sergei Guriev): The Incredible Bouncing Ruble

•   FT(Editorial Board): A British government squanders its legitimacy

•   FT(Editorial Board): Imran Khan may remain a political disrupter

•   FT(Megan Greene): King Dollar is in no danger of losing its world financial crown

•   FT(Robin Harding): The rest of the world should watch what is happening in Shanghai

•   FT(Philip Coggan): The problem of low returns

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): This Isn’t Putin’s Inflation

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Biden’s Ethanol Gas Price Trick

•   WSJ(Jason Furman): Even in a Hot Economy, Wages Aren’t Keeping Up With Inflation

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Fed Official Does Politics While Inflation Soars

•   WSJ(Tomas J. Philipson): What Climate Change Has in Common With Covid

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Trade and Peace: The Great Illusion

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Inflation Is About to Come Down — but Don’t Get Too Excited

•   NYT(Michelle Goldberg): The Unbelievable Stupidity of Ending Global Covid Aid

•   NYT(Dominique Moïsi): France’s Voters Are Choosing Between Fear and Anger

•   WP(Michael Gerson): If Putin isn’t stopped in Ukraine, the Baltics are likely next

•   WP(Leana S. Wen): Now is not the time to reinstate mask mandates

•   WP(Daniel W. Drezner): Russia’s Potemkin power

•   WP(Mark Lawrence Schrad): To understand Putin, we need to look at 1990s Russian democratization

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): Fed's Inflation Fight Could Use a Slower Jobs Market

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): France's Election Shows That Every System Is Rigged In Its Own Way

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): War in Ukraine Makes a Russian Debt Default Inevitable

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): Is There a Market Upside to China’s Covid Lockdowns?

•   Bloomberg(Gary Shilling): Eleven Themes for the New Global Economy, Part 1

•   Bloomberg(James Stavridis): Ukraine War's Most Potent Weapon May Be a Cell Phone

•   Bloomberg(James Gibney): The Fed Should Stop Pretending It’s Nostradamus

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Fed Won’t Be Swayed Even If Inflation Has Peaked

•   Bloomberg(Steven Kelly): The Fed Should Be Ready to Backstop the Commodities Market

•   CNN(Scott Galloway): The metaverse holds great promise — and great risk

•   Fox News(Todd Young): Biden's Iran deal would create a foreign policy disaster for US and hand Xi, Putin, Khamenei a major victory

•   Fox Business(Stephen Moore , E.J. Antoni): Inflation is accelerating under Biden and it's a tax no American voted for