Global Economic Monitor 220419

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street ends lower as bond yields jump on growth concerns

※   Wall Street ends lower after back and forth trading

※   World Bank cuts global growth forecast

※   Oil prices up more than 1%

•   Japan: Yen Tumbles in Longest-Ever Losing Streak as BOJ Stands Dovish

•   Natural gas: U.S. Natural Gas Surges to 13-Year High on Global Supply Crunch

•   Metals: Shanghai copper, nickel up for 4th day on low stocks, stimulus hopes

•   Grains: Corn futures hit decade-high above $8/bushel on global supply concerns

•   한국: 외인·기관 매도에 코스피 소폭 하락…2,690대 마감

•   한국: 다가온 美 고강도 긴축 공포에…환율 1230원 재돌파

•   한국: 국고채 10년물 금리 3.355%… 연고점 넘었다

[Indicators]

•   US Apr. NAHB housing market index: Homebuilder Sentiment in U.S. Drops to Lowest in Seven Months

•   China Q1 GDP: China’s Economy Grew 4.8% in First Quarter, Beating Expectations

※   Beijing faces major test to keep the economy firing as challenges bearing down on growth proliferate

※   WSJ: China’s Covid-19 Restrictions Threaten Economic Recovery

※   Bloomberg: China’s Surprisingly Strong Growth Invites Analysts’ Skepticism

•   China Mar. Retail sales, etc.: China Joblessness Climbs, Spending Drops on Covid Lockdowns

※   Retail sales contracted 3.5% in March, more than expected

•   China Daily Coal output: China's daily coal output in March hits record high

•   India Mar. WPI: India's March WPI inflation accelerates, adding pressure on retail prices

•   Indonesia Mar. Balance of trade: War in Ukraine Sends Indonesia Exports, Imports to New Records

•   한국 2월 아파트 실거래가: 서울 아파트 실거래가 4개월 연속 내렸다

[News]

•   WSJ: Russia Begins New Military Offensive in Ukraine’s East, Ukrainian President Says

※   President Volodymyr Zelensky says Russian forces have started battle for Donbas

•   WSJ: Seven Killed as Russia Steps Up Attacks With Missile Strikes Against Ukraine’s Lviv

※   Western city has been a common destination for Ukrainians displaced by fighting in eastern regions

•   WSJ: In Ukraine’s South, Russian Occupiers Tighten the Screws

•   WSJ: NATO Cyber Game Tests Defenses Amid War in Ukraine

•   WSJ: Hot Economy, Rising Inflation: The Fed Has Never Successfully Fixed a Problem Like This

•   WSJ: Fed’s Bullard Casts Doubt on Need for Rate Increases Larger Than 50 Basis Points

※   St. Louis Fed president says the jobless rate could fall to below 3% this year

•   WSJ: BA.2 Proves the Pandemic Isn’t Over, but People Are Over It

•   WSJ: Judge Throws Out Federal Mask Mandate for Public Transportation

※   Federal judge in Florida says the Biden administration’s Covid-19 mandate exceeds the CDC’s authority

•   WSJ: Under New Guidance, Zero Countries Remain on CDC’s ‘Do Not Travel’ Covid-19 List

•   WSJ: Small Businesses Object to Rerouting of Covid-19 Aid

•   WSJ: Shanghai Reports First Covid-19 Deaths Since Start of Lockdown

•   WSJ: Ukraine War Stokes Concerns in Taiwan Over Its Fragile Internet Links

•   WSJ: Homeowner Groups Seek to Stop Investors From Buying Houses to Rent

•   WSJ: Beijing Wants European Companies to List in China. It Remains a Tough Sell.

•   WSJ: Apollo Global Considers Participating in a Bid for Twitter

•   WSJ: Rivian CEO Warns of Looming Electric-Vehicle Battery Shortage

•   WSJ: Utilities Want to Convert Coal Plants to Nuclear; Skeptics Abound

•   WSJ: U.S. Companies Face Hurdles in Moving Production Closer to Home

•   WSJ: Delta Air Lines Tested SpaceX’s Starlink Internet for Planes, Delta CEO Says

•   NYT: The World Bank slashes its forecast for global economic growth.

※   The bank now expects the global economy to grow at a rate of 3.2 percent in 2022, down from its previous estimate of 4.1 percent.

※   World Bank: Spring Meetings 2022 Media Roundtable Opening Remarks by World Bank Group President David Malpass

•   NYT: Bleak assessments of the Russian economy clash with Putin’s rosy claims.

•   NYT: To Push Back Russians, Ukrainians Hit a Village With Cluster Munitions

•   NYT: French Candidates’ Economic Programs Hold Key to the Election

•   NYT: Why It’s Time to Start Caring Much More About Clean Hydrogen

•   WP: How a Mariupol steel plant became a holdout for the city’s resistance

•   WP: China tries to cover lockdown strains on Shanghai’s front-line workers

•   FT: Russian Orthodox Church lends legitimacy to Putin’s war in Ukraine

•   FT: Macron pushes green credentials in election fight with Le Pen

•   FT: Le Pen rejects reports of EU funds misuse as French election looms

•   FT: UK braced for prolonged period of stagflation

•   FT: Boris Johnson to brush aside ‘partygate’ fine when he faces parliament

•   FT: Donald Trump and the Republicans’ midterm dilemma

•   FT: ‘Voting with their feet’: China’s wealthy look to leave after Shanghai lockdown

•   FT: Ukraine war offers Malaysia a chance to reduce debts, says finance minister

•   FT: US natural gas export fever tempered by costs and climate concerns

•   FT: Xiaomi battles to reinvent itself as China’s Apple

•   FT: ‘Destructive hunger’: South America’s farmers seek to head off global food crisis

•   FT: Baby bust: economic stimulus helps births rebound from pandemic

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s War in Ukraine Puts Global Energy Transition at Crossroad

•   Bloomberg: Putin Decorates Army Unit That Ukraine Blames for Bucha Deaths

•   Bloomberg: Yellen to Attend G-20 Sessions as U.S. Retreats on Boycott Idea

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Homebuyers Are Getting Discouraged by Rising Rates and Prices

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Poised to Launch $6 Billion Effort to Save Nuclear Plants

•   Bloomberg: Homebuyers Signal Dismay Over Rates, Prices in N.Y. Fed Survey

•   Bloomberg: Spain to Scale Back Economic Growth Outlook on Ukraine Impact

•   Bloomberg: China’s Central Bank Pledges Support for Businesses Amid Covid

•   Bloomberg: China Turns Focus on Supply Chains, Pledging More Financial Aid

•   Bloomberg: Covid Hammers China’s Developers by Starving Them of Cash Flow

•   Bloomberg: DBS Cuts China’s GDP Growth Forecast by Half Point to 4.8%

•   Bloomberg: Taiwan Faces Tough Choices as Covid Cases Hit Record Levels

•   Bloomberg: Japan Power Prices Rise as More Utilities Decline New Customers

•   Bloomberg: Brazil’s Central Bank Worker Strike Doesn’t Bode Well for Its Inflation Fight

•   Bloomberg: Almost All Indonesians Have Covid Antibody, March Survey Shows

•   Bloomberg: Cash-Strapped Pakistan Cuts Power to Households on Fuel Shortage

•   Bloomberg: Sri Lanka Credit Rating Cut by Moody’s as Looming Default to Bring Losses

•   Bloomberg: China Jitters Mount as Easing Calls Echo Across Trading Floors

•   Bloomberg: Earnings Face Inflation Headwind, Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says

•   Bloomberg: Bitcoin Looks Soft in the Era of Hard Assets to Hedge Inflation

•   Bloomberg: Japan to Model Digital Yen Tests on Sweden’s Approach, Not China’s

•   Bloomberg: Rising Fertilizer Costs are Catching up to Rice Farmers, Threatening Supplies

•   Bloomberg: China’s Spreading Lockdowns Keeping Metals Supply Chains Snarled

•   Bloomberg: Tesla Shanghai to Enter "Closed-Loop" System With Workers Sleeping in Factory

※   EV maker has restarted Shanghai output in closed-loop system

•   Bloomberg: Tesla Autopilot Stirs U.S. Alarm as ‘Disaster Waiting to Happen’

•   Bloomberg: Transcript: This Is the Challenge of Securing the Battery Supply Chain

•   Bloomberg: China's Carbon Market Struggles With Data Fraud

•   Reuters: Raisi says Iran will target heart of Israel if it acts against Iranian nation

•   Reuters: Omicron infection induces limited immune response in unvaccinated; COVID hospital deaths rise on weekends

•   AP: Biden to require US-made steel, iron for infrastructure

•   CNBC: Why China shows no sign of backing away from its ‘zero-Covid’ strategy

•   CNBC: How robots and indoor farming can help save water and grow crops year round

•   MarketWatch: What the rising probability of a ‘growth scare’ could mean for the stock market

•   MarketWatch: Top CEOs see nearly 31% pay increase in 2021, study shows

•   SCMP: China’s rising household debt is shattering dreams of financial freedom, and ‘fears are spreading’

•   SCMP: Zero society Covid by Wednesday? Shanghai’s target to tame China’s worst outbreak

•   SCMP: China’s Shanghai lockdowns have California ports bracing for shipping chaos, supply-chain ‘hiccups’

•   Caixin: Cover Story: The Disrupted Lifelines of the Shanghai Outbreak

•   Nikkei Asia: Weak yen vexes Team Kishida as inflation looms over election

•   Nikkei Asia: BOJ's Kuroda says yen's 'quite sharp' fall could hurt businesses

•   Nikkei Asia: Mitsubishi Heavy aims to build 'reactor-on-truck' by 2030s

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan's Mitsubishi and Eneos to mass-produce cleaner jet fuel

•   Nikkei Asia: Mitsubishi Chemical to boost EV battery material output overseas

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan on verge of approving Novavax COVID vaccine

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan to streamline quarterly disclosures for listed companies

•   Nikkei Asia: Maruti Suzuki CEO implies India will fall short of 2030 EV goal

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan approves Novavax COVID vaccine, adding fourth option

•   Nikkei Asia: Indonesia in spotlight as it weighs buying Russia's 'blood oil'

•   Economic Times: Widening trade deficit, large capital outflows put India's strength to test: RBI report

•   매경(P1): [단독] 총수 친족범위 줄인다…인수위, 대기업 규제 완화

•   매경(P1): 손 못댄 관행, 코로나가 확 바꿨다

•   매경: 작은 경조사·원격진료·다양한 근무방식…계속 이어가야할 유산

•   매경: 단건배달 투자에 '쩐의 전쟁'…배민·쿠팡 "적자폭 늘어 골치"

•   매경: [단독] '모래주머니' 벗긴 인수위…사무실 없어도 창업 가능해진다

•   매경: 적자 늪 한전…전기도 외상으로 산다

•   매경: "규제 풀어 혁신형 소형원자로 개발 속도내야"

•   매경: [단독] 기초연금 10만원 올리면 45조 더 들어

•   매경: 파업 허용범위 넓힌 ILO…재계, 노사분규 급증 우려

•   매경: 계륵같던 복지포인트…'페이' 만나 용 됐네

•   매경: 시선 잡는 '수주 잭팟'…이달 들어 현대重, 삼성重 고공행진

•   매경: "잘 먹고 갑니다"…외국인 국내증시 비중 2009년 이후 최저

•   매경: 둔촌주공만 문제 아니었네…공사비, 분양가 갈등에 서울 7천가구 분양 연기

•   한경(P1): 물가 쇼크에도…윤석열 대통령 당선인, 현금성 3대 공약 강행

•   한경: 재정건전성 강조한 새 정부마저…'年 17조 현금살포 공약' 밀어붙여

•   한경(P1): Me코노미 시대…"남과 같으면 에·루·샤도 싫다"

•   한경(P1): 돈 몰리는 인도주식, 한국서도 살 수 있다

•   한경: 입김 세진 글로벌 연기금…주총 안건 2개 중 1개는 반대했다

•   한경: 한은 연봉 1억…금감원과 비슷, 민간 금융사보단 낮아

•   한경: 안철수 "연금개혁 사회적 대통합기구 만들 것"

•   한경: 12억 집은 月 193만원…"집값 떨어져도 계속 준다" 가입 러시

•   한경: 규제혁파 외쳤던 문재인 정부 '초라한 2%'

•   한경: 규제 샌드박스? 규제 샌드위치!

•   한경: 鐵·리튬값 폭등에 甲乙 없다…완성차-납품사 '비용 떠넘기기'

•   한경: 디'지털 트랜스포메이션' 가속…공장 자동화·일하는 방식 혁신

•   서경(P1): 숨은 가계빚 640조 '9월의 시한폭탄'

•   서경: 대출 연체율 0.1%P 오르면 1.8兆 부실…부동산 균열땐 '뇌관' 될수도

•   서경: 가계빚 줄고 있다지만…매달 2兆씩 불어나는 주담대

•   서경: "금리상승기 대출규제는 시장에 맡겨야"

•   서경(P1): 이영 중기부 장관 후보자 “50조 추경에 얽매일 필요없어”

•   서경(P1): "印尼 '니켈 광산' 확보" …LG엔솔, 11조 쏟는다

•   서경: 작년 역대급 '초과세수'에…기재부 세제실 감사 착수

•   서경: 경계현, 美 대형 팹리스 방문…구자열도 내달 미국행

•   서경: 무너지는 '러시아의 구글'…KT·네이버·LG전자 ‘불똥’

•   서경: 새 정부 혁신성장정책 잘되려면…“R&D세액공제 확대, 민간R&D지원 전담조직 설치해야”

•   서경: "내 안에 신세계 있다"…'적과의 동침' 택한 현대

•   서경: "올 코스피 바닥 2500~2600…美 빅스텝 후 반등"

•   조선(P1): 세계 4대 곡창지대 모두 망가졌다

•   조선: 자장면값 9.4%… 빵값도 6% 올라

•   조선(P1): [단독]감사원 “文케어로 뇌 MRI 등 남발… 건보 재정 낭비”

•   조선: 건물 안에만 들어가면 5G 왜 먹통인가 했더니…

•   조선: 車값이 미쳤네요, 신차 섣불리 못뽑겠어요

•   조선: 밥 먹기전에 찰칵… 칼로리 계산해드려요

•   조선: 체감물가 무섭게 치솟았는데, 美의 절반도 안된다고?

•   조선: [인수위 인사이드] 새 건배사 “BH에서 DH로!”

•   조선비즈: 철근·콘크리트 연합회 “20일부터 전국 건설현장 셧다운”

•   조선비즈: “불안한 주식보다 예·적금이 낫다”… 영끌족의 변신

•   조선비즈: 인수위 “‘반도체 기술경쟁력 강화’ 국정과제로 중점 검토”

•   조선비즈: [실패한 J노믹스]① 나랏돈 눈덩이로 풀어도 성장률 ‘꼴찌’…정부 지출, GDP 대비 30% 코앞

•   조선비즈: 원자재價 급등에 수출업계 ‘한숨’… “원유 수입에 무관세 적용해야”

•   조선비즈: 삼성도 ‘롤러블 TV’ 내놓나… 삼성D, 두께 확 줄인 QD-OLED 개발한다

•   인베스트조선: 치솟는 채권금리에 기업 자금조달 ‘비상’…투자업계도 금리 부담↑

•   중앙: 중국 봉쇄에 반도체 비상…D램 이어 낸드도 가격 꺾였다

•   동아(P1): 尹 “경제안보, 평상시 총리실서 맡고 위기땐 즉각 안보실이 관리”

•   동아: [단독]北, 핵 소형화 ‘마지노선’ 넘었나… ‘60cm-500kg’급 개발 가능성

•   동아: [인사이드＆인사이트]월급 적은데 연금도 줄어… “공무원 말고 대기업 갈래요”

•   채널A: [단독]尹 공약 ‘병사 월급 200만 원’…내년에 올린다

•   문화: 코딩 없이도 앱 ‘뚝딱’… 노코드 가 뜬다

•   문화: 더 많이… 더 빨리… 대기업도 전력 보강 중

•   국민(P1): “다시 일 나오세요” 돌아온 일상, 오랜만에 곳곳 활기

•   세계: [단독] 이창양 산업부 장관 후보자, 전두환 경제정책 옹호 글 논란

•   세계: 진짜 ‘적’ 화석연료 뺀 채… 원전이냐 재생이냐 소모전 [원전 vs 재생 ‘파워게임’을 넘어서]

•   머니투데이(P1): 인수위, 삼성 반도체 퇴직자 활용 검토...中 인력 유출 막는다

•   머니투데이: [단독]인수위, 대통령 직속 '감염병 컨트롤타워' 만든다

•   머니투데이: "토니로 불러달라" 한 달, 최태원 회장이 찾은 사업현장 봤더니…

•   머니투데이: 거리두기 끝났는데…은행, 아직도 3시반에 닫는다?

•   머니투데이: KT, 업무 자동화로 9만 시간 아꼈다..."사내 디지털 혁신"

•   헤럴드경제(P1): LG전자가 삼성전자 앱 전문가 영입했다고?

•   헤럴드경제: 중기 대출 5년간 300조 폭증…최대난제는 금리·물가

•   헤럴드경제: 국정 의제도 안보이고…尹 ‘공정과 상식’ 중대기로

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): [단독]尹정부, 민간주도 일자리 지원기관 만든다 [인수위 출범 한달]

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 쌍용차 재매각 3파전... KG·쌍방울·파빌리온PE 참여

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 상하이 봉쇄 장기화... 한계 다다른 韓기업 [상하이 봉쇄 경제 직격탄]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 인수위 "반도체 육성, 국정과제로… 연금개혁 위원회 조만간 구성" [인수위 출범 한달]

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]천지·대진 원전 건설 재개, 사실상 무산

•   아시아경제: 신한울·계속운전으로 원전 새판…현실적 '탈원전 백지화'에 무게

•   아시아경제: 기업들 脫탄소 등 떠밀며, 예타는 하세월…탄소중립 R&D, 내년 예산편성 무산 위기

•   아시아경제: [인터뷰]"워세션, 스태그플레이션과 달라…인플레 동시 생산감소"

•   디지털타임스(P1): 규제완화 기대로 벌써 들썩이자 부동산대책 발표 늦추는 인수위

•   디지털타임스: 수입보다 재정에 기댄 공공기관… 文정부 5년간 30조 더 늘었다

•   이데일리(P1): ‘채권 대학살론’까지…금리급등에 비명

•   이데일리: 채권서 1000억대 손실난 곳도…금리 발작에 시장은 패닉

•   이데일리: 채권시장에선 곡소리 나는데…당국 "개입할 단계는 아냐"

•   이데일리: "채권은 안전한 줄 알아더니"…마이너스 펀드에 개미 발동동

•   이데일리(P1): 무료 한달체험 내걸은 기아…판 커지는 중고차시장

•   이데일리: [단독]`주52시간 유연화` 尹정부, 文도 못한 포괄임금제 손본다

•   이데일리: 가계대출 급감에도 은행들 자신만만한 이유, 왜?

•   이데일리: ‘컨선 高운임 유지’ 전망…HMM, 실적 오름세 이어간다

•   이데일리: 비수기인데 벌써 물건 뚝...여름이 무서운 전세시장

•   이데일리: 싸늘한 IPO시장에...기업들 '오버행 가능성 낮춰라'

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 11만5908명 확진…검사수 늘면서 어제의 2.5배

•   연합인포맥스: 차기 부위원장 누가되나…금융위 라인업에 촉각

•   SBS: [단독] '6억 집을 1억에'…이창용 한은 총재 후보자 다운계약 의혹

•   SBS Biz: [단독] 인력 늘어난 공공기관부터 구조조정…기재부, 인수위에 보고

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]윤 정부, 인수위 한 달 국정 철학 제시해야

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]윤 정부 국정과제 무엇이 담기나

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트] 코로나 엔데믹 전환…백신·치료제·진단키트 옥석 가려진다

•   전자신문: 원전 확대로 '사용후핵연료 포화' 빨라져…"특별법 서둘러야"

•   전자신문: 이창용 한은 총재 후보자 청문회 무사 통과 전망

•   전자신문: 조선 3사, LNG 저장·재기화설비 수주 큰 폭 늘 듯

•   전자신문: 삼성·TSMC, 데이터센터향 매출 폭풍성장... 스마트폰 대항마로

•   전자신문: 6월 5G 국가망 선도사업 수주전...통신 3사 대 격돌

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(H.M. Queen Máxima, Agustín Carstens): CBDCs for the People

•   Project Syndicate(Liam Byrne): Summoning the Spirit of Bretton Woods

•   Project Syndicate(Chris Patten): France’s Presidential Election Matters for Us All

•   Project Syndicate(Slavoj Žižek): War in a World that Stands for Nothing

•   FT(Editorial Board): America is struggling to counter China’s intellectual property theft

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Patriots vs globalists replaces the left-right divide

•   FT(John Plender): Investors seeking havens must weigh geopolitical risks of China versus US

•   FT(Patti Waldmeir): ‘Silver lining’ to pandemic for ageing Americans

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): China Pays a Zero-Covid Price

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): The End of Russia’s Empire?

•   WSJ(Laurence Kotlikoff): A Home Is Your Castle Against Rising Inflation

•   NYT(Elizabeth Warren): Democrats Can Avoid Disaster in November

•   NYT(Peter Coy): Pushing ‘Long Covid’ Sufferers Too Hard Could Cause Them to Crash

•   WP(Editorial Board): The scale of Russian atrocities in Ukraine is staggering

•   WP(Hanna Notte): Why deterring Russian use of chemical weapons is a challenge

•   WP(Iuliia Mendel): Sirens, loss, pain: The war is everywhere and everything in Ukraine

•   Bloomberg(Bill Dudley): The Slower the Fed, the Harder the Landing

•   Bloomberg(Clara Ferreira Marques, Scott Johnson): Russia Weathers Sanctions Now But the Economy Faces Dire Long-Term Woes

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Red-Hot Home Prices Freeze Out Lower Earners

•   Bloomberg(Allison Schrager): How Will Steady High Inflation Change Our Economic Lives?

•   Fox News(Robert Maginnis): Russia's Putin isn't finished in Ukraine