Global Economic Monitor 220412

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: U.S. yields jump to 3-year highs, stocks slide on CPI outlook

•   Eurozone: German Yields Climb to Highest Since 2015 Amid Hawkish ECB Bets

•   China: China Yield Premium Over U.S. Vanishes With More Outflows Seen

•   Natural gas: U.S. Natural Gas Closes at 13-Year High With Inventories Falling

•   Metals: China demand angst hits aluminum prices

•   Grains: Wheat, corn firm as war in Ukraine drags on

•   Lumber: Lumber Slides as Surging Inflation Hammers DIY Renovation Market

•   한국: 코스피 장 초반 상승 전환…장중 2,700대 회복

•   한국: '금리 발작'…국채 3년물 19bp 치솟아 사상최초 30년물 역전

[Indicators]

•   US Mar. Inflation expectations: New York Fed: Public Expectations for March 2023 Inflation Hit 6.6% Record

※   Expectations for inflation three years from now, in March 2025, moderate to 3.7%

•   UK Feb. GDP: UK economy grows just 0.1% in February, missing expectations

•   China Mar. CPI·PPI: China Inflation Rises as Lockdowns, Ukraine War Drive Up Prices

※   Inflationary pressure remains lighter than in other major economies, giving the central bank room to stimulate the slowing economy

•   China Mar. New Yuan loans: China’s Credit Growth Rebounds Faster Than Expected in March

•   한국 3월 고용행정통계: 3월 실업급여 1조36억… 전월보다 12% ↑

•   한국 4월 1~10일 수출: 4월 1∼10일 수출 3.0% 증가…무역수지 35억달러 적자

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Zelensky Calls for More Military Aid Ahead of Battles in Eastern Regions

※   French police arrive in Ukraine to assist in war-crimes investigation into alleged Russian atrocities

•   WSJ: Biden Meets Modi as U.S. Presses India Over Russia

※   India has remained neutral amid Ukraine war despite U.S. efforts to rally global leaders against Putin

•   WSJ: After Many Western Companies Fled Ukraine, a Holdout Adapts to Wartime

•   WSJ: What Is the U.S.’s Long-Term Policy Toward Russia Now?

•   WSJ: Moscow’s Central Banker Dismantles What She Built

•   WSJ: Russian Railways Ruled in Default as Sanctions Ensnarl Payments

•   WSJ: White House Expected to Name New Commander to Lead Allied Forces in Europe

•   WSJ: Fed’s Evans Says Good Possibility of 50 Basis Point Rate Rise in May

•   WSJ: China’s Latest Covid-19 Lockdowns Begin to Drag on the Economy

※   Stringent pandemic control measures brought falling car sales, rising prices of everyday items in March

•   WSJ: Investors Turn Cautious on Consumer Debt

•   WSJ: Wall Street Might Not Be Such a Drag This Earnings Season

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Says He Remains Engaged in Twitter Strategy ‘Without Limitation’ After Refusing Board Seat

•   WSJ: Everything Costs More, and That’s Disrupting Retirement for Many

•   WSJ: Home Builders Bypassing Individual Home Buyers for Deep-Pocketed Investors

•   WSJ: Covid-19 Vaccines Carry Low Risk of Heart Conditions, Studies Find

•   NYT: Bucha’s Month of Terror

•   NYT: No More ‘Have a Nice Day’: Lviv Learns to Live With War

•   NYT: A Spring Uptick, or Just Some Notable Positive Cases?

•   NYT: China’s Echoes of Russia’s Alternate Reality Intensify Around the World

•   NYT: Pakistan Closes a Chaotic Political Chapter. It May Not Be the Climax.

•   NYT: Truck Makers Face a Tech Dilemma: Batteries or Hydrogen?

•   WP: Higher interest rates could blunt two big problems in the economy

•   WP: What Should America Do With Its Nuclear Waste?

•   FT: Military briefing: warring sides prepare for defining Donbas battle

•   FT: Rematch for the Elysée: Emmanuel Macron battles to hold ‘republican front’ against Marine Le Pen

•   FT: Macron and Le Pen begin final sprint in French election run-off

•   FT: Big commodity traders reap rewards as margin calls squeeze smaller rivals

•   FT: Orsted to burn more coal as Ukraine war hits wood pellet supplies

•   FT: The Chinese companies trying to buy strategic islands

•   FT: Electric vehicle targets ‘impossible’ without changes to lithium pipeline

•   FT: Ericsson announces ‘indefinite suspension’ of Russian business

•   FT: China approves new online games as crackdown eases

•   Bloomberg: Russia Added Yuan, Euro to Reserves Before War, Cut Dollar Share

•   Bloomberg: Ukraine Seeks Russia Assets, Oil Fleet Seizure as Reparations

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Economy Now ‘Facing Rocky Waters,’ Biden Aide Deese Says

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Waller Nods to Economic ‘Collateral Damage’ as Rates Rise

•   Bloomberg: ECB Discord on War Impact Masks Consensus on Need for Hikes

•   Bloomberg: End of ECB Bond Purchases Not Priced In, Goldman Strategists Say

•   Bloomberg: OPEC Tells EU That Russia Oil Crisis Is Beyond Its Control

•   Bloomberg: China’s Credit Growth Rebounds Faster Than Expected in March

•   Bloomberg: India’s Hawkish Pivot Spurs Economists to Move Up Rate Calls

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Central Bank Head Spurs Bets for More Key Rate Hikes

•   Bloomberg: Jokowi Dismisses Term Extension Plan as Thousands Set to Protest

•   Bloomberg: Hawkish Fed Is Top Muni Concern in 2022, Hilltop Survey Shows

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Gasoline Prices Ride Longest Streak of Declines Since 2020

•   Bloomberg: Russian Oil Exports Are Forced on Longer Voyages to Find Buyers

•   Bloomberg: War Gives Oil Producers Greater Clout at COP27

•   Bloomberg: China Slashes LNG Purchases on High Prices and Pandemic Slowdown

•   Bloomberg: This Is What 5% Mortgage Rates Mean Now for the Housing Market

•   Bloomberg: Ford's Shuttered Indian Factories Could Be Reborn as Electric-Car Hubs

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Five Million Men Are Still Missing From the U.S. Workforce

•   Reuters: WHO says it is analysing two new Omicron COVID sub-variants

※   It has added BA.4 and BA.5, sister variants of the original BA.1 Omicron variant

•   Reuters: Fed to raise rates aggressively in coming months, say economists: Reuters poll

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Brazil invites EU for the first time to observe its national election

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. strategic oil sale speeds fuel-price fix, but at what cost?

•   Reuters: Analysis: Politics, not substance, seen guiding U.S. and Iran on terror listing

•   CNBC: This isn’t a recession – it’s a ‘war-cession,’ top strategist says. Here’s why it’s different

•   CNBC: WHO says it’s closely watching China as the country grapples with its worst Covid surge

•   CNBC: March’s runaway energy prices and higher food costs could mean hottest consumer inflation since 1981

•   CNBC: Chinese electric car company Nio hikes prices, suspends production

•   MarketWatch: Dr. Fauci warns: Don’t ‘pooh-pooh’ COVID because of low hospitalizations, as new daily cases and deaths extend increases

•   MarketWatch: Global PC sales fall in Q1, Gartner and IDC say, but demand remains mostly strong

•   Fox Business: A 'recession shock' is coming to the US, Bank of America says

•   SCMP: China’s support for Russia galvanises US, Europe as Washington examines once-unthinkable sanctions against Beijing

•   SCMP: China to ratify forced labour conventions in ‘major signal’ to EU

•   SCMP: Chinese UN representative ‘laments’ deaths in Ukraine missile attack but doesn’t blame Russia

•   SCMP: Power shift in Pakistan won’t affect China ties, ‘hard-core friend’ Beijing says

•   SCMP: China’s foreign firms desperate for shift away from ‘old toolbox’ of mass testing, isolation to combat Omicron

•   SCMP: China accelerates inward economic pivot with plan to create a ‘unified domestic market’

•   SCMP: Covid-19: Airports, harbours, highways must remain open to protect transport, logistics chain amid restrictions, Beijing tells local governments

•   SCMP: US-China relations: ‘vague’ investment screening plan leaves questions on scope and execution

•   SCMP: Shanghai Covid-19 lesson learned as southern Chinese Guangdong province swings into action

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan confirms first case of omicron XE variant

•   Nikkei Asia: BOJ cuts view on most Japan regions, warns of Ukraine fallout

•   Nikkei Asia: BOJ Gov. Kuroda's 20-year fight to end deflation grinds on

•   Nikkei Asia: Hitachi allows staff to organize schedules for 4-day workweeks

•   Nikkei Asia: China to hold party congress in November: report

•   매경(P1): 삼성 27%, 인텔 13%…韓기업 법인세 굴레

•   매경: 기업 옥죄는 법인세…홍콩 수준 세율낮추면 투자 71조 늘어

•   매경: 강대국 질서에 흔들리지 않는 韓주도 공급망 공동체 만들자

•   매경: 소득 5만弗 부자나라 되려면, 기업자유 높여야

•   매경(P1): 한달 미뤄진 '다주택자 양도세 완화'…文정부 몽니에 5월11일부터 적용

•   매경: 인수위 "취임 즉시 양도세 중과 배제"…文정부 몽니에 응수

•   매경: 원가는 2배, 납품가 그대로…'적자'생존 내몰린 中企

•   매경: "중기는 제값 못받아 고사 직전…대기업만 184조 실적 잔치"

•   매경: 비서실장 여전히 '경제통' 무게…김대기·강석훈·박병원 압축

•   매경: "공무원들이 따지는데 누가 기업 하겠나"

•   매경: [단독] 첨단 R&D 투자기업, 세금 팍팍 깎아준다

•   매경: 한덕수 "차관 인선은 장관 추천으로"

•   매경: "어떻게 전문성 안보고 뽑나"…연구기관, 文정부 '블라인드 채용' 손본다

•   매경: 국채값 급락에 기관 손절매 속출…기업 회사채 발행 '적신호'

•   매경: 삼성 '회식자제령 해제'...사내 행사도 299명까지 허용

•   매경: 일본이 독점한 전기차 기술…삼성전기의 힘으로 뚫었다

•   매경: "반도체 공급 2025년까지 부족"…베인앤드컴퍼니 전망

•   매경: 꽉 막혔던 서울 아파트거래…8개월만에 반등

•   매경: 커지는 시장두고 한눈팔 필요없다…C테크, 지도자 결단에 달려

•   매경: 탄소금융, C테크 미래 이끈다

•   매경: "기후기술 시장도 핀테크처럼…과감하게 규제 풀어야"

•   매경: 구하기 어려워진 희토류…석탄재 활용해 답 찾는다 [Science]

•   매경: 희토류 캐러 달까지 간다 [Science]

•   매경: [상생경영] 복합위기 뚫을 상생…동반성장 닻 올리자

•   한경(P1): "가격 미쳤다"…중국 갑질에 LG·삼성·SK 줄줄이 '초비상'

•   한경: 환율 리스크까지 떠안은 K배터리…올 500억 손실 예상, 비용 '눈덩이'

•   한경: 배터리 업계, 외화부채만 13조원…환율 뛸 때마다 이자비용 '눈덩이'

•   한경(P1): [단독] 카카오페이증권서 카카오 0.1주 못 산다

•   한경(P1): 법적나이 1~2살씩 어려진다

•   한경: 레미콘·알루미늄·철근 콘크리트 업계…"원자재값 인상분 납품단가에 반영해 달라"

•   한경: 아무리 금리 상승기라지만…은행, 주담대 금리 너무 올렸다

•   한경: LG폰 철수 1년…韓선 삼성, 美선 모토로라가 빈자리 채웠다

•   한경: 韓 틈새시장 또 두드리는 中샤오미

•   한경: "아이폰13, 매달 4만원에 쓴다"…윤곽 드러난 애플의 구독서비스

•   한경: 잘나가는 갤S22, 미국서도 '품귀'…전작 넘어설까

•   서경(P1): '기업 족쇄 푼다'는 추경호, 법인세도 손본다

•   서경: 버거운 '법인세 모래주머니' 찬 韓기업…방치땐 경쟁력·세수 다 잃는다

•   서경: 경제계 "과도한 세금부담에 일자리 줄어…국제기준 맞춰야"

•   서경: 獨의 0.7% 불과…가업상속공제 유명무실

•   서경(P1): 원희룡 "집값 단번에 해결은 오만…지나친 규제 완화 없을것"

•   서경: 예측 가능한 주택공급 강조한 元…"재건축으로 개발이익은 큰 착각"

•   서경: 尹, 노동계 안고 간다…이번주 한국노총 방문

•   서경: [경제안보의 핵 전략기술] 반도체도 '초격차' 없인 수년내 추락…R&D 새판짜야 살아남아

•   서경: [심층분석] 대기업, 로봇사업 집중 투자하는데…정부는 인증기준 미비

•   서경: [시그널] 회사채 발행시장 코로나 초기보다 악화

•   조선(P1): [NOW] “1시간 넘게 안 잡혀” 심야 택시잡기 대란

•   조선(P1): [단독] SK, 빌 게이츠의 테라파워에 투자한다

•   조선: ‘꽃세권’ 북적… 가로수길·명동은 공실률 줄어

•   조선: “희귀종 미확진자를 보호하라” 미확진자 재택시키는 회사 등장

•   조선: 속타는 식당 사장님 “알바생이 안 돌아오네”

•   조선비즈: SK하이닉스, 1분기 매출 11.7兆 최고 전망… 2분기 13兆 넘을 듯

•   조선비즈: 삼성디스플레이, 중소형 OLED 올인… 4兆 시설투자 나선다

•   조선비즈: 삼성전자, 스마트폰 핵심부품 중화권 비중 늘린다… 공급망 다변화 차원

•   조선비즈: 신재생에너지 과잉 투자한 제주, 민간 태양광까지 멈췄다

•   인베스트조선: 전장은 넓고 경쟁사 날아가는데…리더십 불안·구조적 한계 드러낸 삼성전자

•   중앙: [단독]공정위, 민주노총 첫 제재 나선다…쟁점은 ‘노동자 맞냐’

•   중앙: [단독] 정의선 미국행…전기차공장 앨라배마vs조지아 선정 임박

•   중앙: [단독]고용부 41년만에 사회→경제부처로…"일자리는 경제 영역"

•   동아(P1): “경제기관, 성장률 2%대 하향… 물가상승률 4%대 상향 전망”

•   동아: [단독]‘北 핵실험’ 尹정부 출범 전후 유력… 이달엔 미사일 발사 가능성

•   동아: 추경호 “내달 尹정부 출범 즉시 추경안 국회 제출”

•   동아: 부품값 뛰고 공급난 겹쳐 ‘카플레이션’… 싼차가 사라진다

•   동아: 작년 158만명 어쩔 수 없이 회사 떠나… 퇴직자의 절반

•   한국(P1): 억대 연봉? 파견 개발자는 월급 170만원 받고 300만원 가까이 떼였다

•   한국: 尹정부 경제팀, 과거 재경부서 '한솥밥'..."모피아 귀환" 지적도

•   국민(P1): 이태규 인수위원 사퇴… 공동정부 이상기류?

•   서울: “尹정부 재개발·재건축 확대 기조… 집값 상승 우려”

•   경향(P1): 윤석열 당선인 정치 행보의 기준점 ‘지방선거’

•   경향: 한은 총재 없는데…“금리 대응” 언급한 예비 경제수장

•   경향: 대체 불가의 가치를 원했는데…‘짝퉁 NFT’였다면?

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]한화 김동관, 美서 '블록체인 큰손' 만났다...대규모 투자 타진

•   헤럴드경제: 삼성, TSMC 파운드리 따라잡으려면…

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 작은정부 맞는 공공기관… 다시 구조조정 태풍 [술렁이는 공기업]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 효율 강조하는 새정부… 통폐합 1순위는 한전 발전자회사 [정권교체기 휘둘리는 공공기관]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 최저임금 높은데 유급휴일까지… 고개 든 ‘주휴수당 폐지론’ [‘무노동 유임금’ 논쟁 점화]

•   아시아경제(P1): 생활비 月 38만원 1인가구, 올해는 '46만원' 들어간다

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]인수위, ‘고준위 특별법’ 만든다…이르면 연내 입법 가능성

•   아시아경제: ‘탈원전 백지화’ 필수조건 방폐장…내년 절차 착수해도 2060년 완공

•   디지털타임스(P1): [기획] 정치적 전기료 동결, 회사채 왜곡 키운다

•   디지털타임스(P1): [짚어봅시다] 꿈틀대는 서울 아파트값…상승 추세냐, 일시적 현상이냐

•   디지털타임스(P1): "금리인상기 가계·기업 신용위험 커질 것"

•   디지털타임스: 폐기론 고개드는 `연료비 연동제`… 尹정부, 고물가 대책없어 고심

•   디지털타임스: 1분기 단기사채 통한 자금조달 325.2조

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]인수위, '깜깜이' 고분양가심사제 손본다

•   이데일리(P1): 거리두기 전면폐지에 급제동…안철수 "철저한 선행조치 우선"

•   이데일리: 中 '제로 코로나' 고집에…韓기업들 피해 눈덩이

•   이데일리: 탈원전 백지화 `드라이브`…원전+신재생 조합 녹록찮을 듯

•   이데일리: 올해 일평균 공매도, 지난해보다 늘었다…외국인 비중 71%

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 20만4798명 확진…어제보다 11만5392명↑

•   전자신문(P1): 영업익 2100%…벤처캐피털 '깜짝 실적'

•   전자신문: 인간 감정 읽는 AI...신시장 부상

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Dani Rodrik): Development Economics Goes North

•   Project Syndicate(Diane Coyle): Is Competition Always Good?

•   Project Syndicate(Vasyl Cherepanyn): Putin’s World War Z

•   Project Syndicate(Xiaobei He, Irene Monasterolo, Kevin P. Gallagher): The IMF Needs to Mitigate Climate Transition Risk

•   Project Syndicate(Ana Palacio): How to Sanction a Nuclear Foe

•   FT(Editorial Board): The changing nature of globalisation

•   FT(Editorial Board): Ukraine has been a rare success for UK foreign policy

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): We need to think about a Le Pen presidency

•   FT(Mohamed El-Erian): Monetary policy must serve the real economy not just financial markets

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Recession whispers, part 2

•   FT(Ruchir Sharma): How Putin aged into a classic oil state autocrat

•   FT(Reza Moghadam): ECB has a narrow path to tread on interest rates and spreads

•   WSJ(James Freeman): The Inflation Election of 2022

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Putin’s Ukraine War Roils U.S.-India Ties

•   WSJ(Gerard Baker): Macron, the Establishment’s Savior, Suddenly Looks Vulnerable in the French Election

•   WSJ(Allysia Finley): The Folly of World-Wide Covid Vaccination

•   WSJ(Phillip W. Magness, Vincent Geloso): Inequality and the Piketty Accounting Error

•   NYT(Peter Coy): Globalization Isn’t Over. It’s Changing.

•   NYT(Gail Collins, Bret Stephens): Is Trump the Democrats’ Secret Weapon?

•   NYT(Charles A. Kupchan): Putin’s War in Ukraine Is a Watershed. Time for America to Get Real.

•   WP(Editorial Board): In the battle against Putinism, France is the new front

•   WP(Max Boot): Trump is wrong about war. Russia’s failure in Ukraine shows why.

•   WP(Edward Alden): The West thought money could tame dictators. Has Putin proved it can’t?

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): U.S. Retirement Crisis Demands More Than Piecemeal Reform

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): The U.S. Should Show India It’s a Better Partner Than Putin

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): Solar Power Is Winning From the Energy Crisis. Wind Is Losing

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): ‘Ukraine Fatigue’ Is Taking Over Markets, But This War Can't Be Ignored

•   Bloomberg(Jared Dillian): There's a Bull Market in Macro Doom

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): Macron's Political Earthquake Keeps On Rumbling As Le Pen Forces Runoff

•   Bloomberg(Faye Flam): Immune to Covid? It’s Possible — But a Medical Mystery

•   Bloomberg(Jessica Karl): Fatigue Over Ukraine, Covid, Inflation and Elon Musk Has Set In

•   Bloomberg(Gina Martin Adams): Looking for a Stock Boost? Just Wait for Earnings Season

•   Bloomberg(Adrian Wooldridge): Putin's Invasion May Show Advanced Economies How to Escape the Great Stagnation

•   Bloomberg(Lena Komileva): How the ECB Should Begin to Normalize Monetary Policy

•   CNN(Patrick Gaspard): The best solution to high gas prices: tax the oil companies

•   Fox News(Newt Gingrich): Democrats' 2022 midterm election scare tactics: this desperate move won't save them

•   Fox News(Lindsey Graham): Victory for Ukraine, defeat for Russia: 6 steps to holding Putin accountable

•   Reuters(Jamie McGeever): Hedge funds eye U.S. bond boost after bruising Q1