Global Economic Monitor 220927

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street ends lower, Dow confirms bear market

※   Fed rate hikes have investors 'throwing in the towel'

※   Casinos jump as Macau allows tour groups after nearly 3 years

※   Indexes: Dow -1.11%, S&P 500 -1.03%, Nasdaq -0.60%

•   UK: Pound resumes slide after BoE and Treasury seek to steady markets

※   Sterling falls below $1.07 despite central bank and government reassurances about interest rates and stable finances

•   UK: UK borrowing costs suffer historic rise after hit to gilts

•   China: Yuan Plunge Nears 14-Year Low Inviting Aggressive PBOC Pushback

•   Metals: Grim demand outlook pushes copper prices to 2-month low

•   Grains: Wheat, corn and soybean futures sag on recession fears

•   한국: '검은 월요일'…원/달러 환율 1,430원 넘고 코스닥지수 5% 폭락

•   한국: 국채 금리 급등…13년 만에 3년물 年 4.5% 넘었다

[Indicators]

•   US Aug. Economic activity(Chicago Fed): Chicago Fed national activity index unchanged in August

•   US Sep. Dallas Fed manufacturing Index: Texas Factory Activity Extends Losses to September Despite Pickup in Output -- Dallas Fed

•   Germany Sep. Ifo business climate: German Business Confidence Slides Further on Energy Concerns

•   Japan Sep. PMI: Japan's factory activity expands at slowest pace in 20 months

•   Argentina Jul. Economic activity: Argentina’s Economy Stalled as Inflation Spiked in July

•   한국 9월 소비자동향: 물가 진정되나…9월 기대인플레 4.2%, 두 달 연속 하락

[Lawmakers & Policies]

•   민주당: 野 '남는 쌀 의무매입' 검수완박처럼 강행

•   국민의힘: [단독] 박성중·한무경·최형두·최춘식·박형수… 국민의힘 '文 태양광비리특위' 5명 명단

•   국민의힘: 9억 주택도 안심전환대출 받나

•   정무위: [단독] 정무위, 5대은행장 국감증인 잠정 합의... '이상송금' 최대 쟁점

•   정무위(박재호): [단독] 작년 공정위 민원 1만3000건 사상최대…사건처리기간 평균 109일

•   정무위(윤영덕): [단독]‘급락장’ 속 증권사, 공매도 수입으로 236억 벌었다

•   금융위: 새출발기금 앞둔 은행권 "부실 우려"

•   금감원: [단독] 태양광 외 풍력·지열 등 신재생 대출도 들여다 본다

•   금감원: 금리오를때 금감원의 팁… “新잔액 코픽스 대출이 유리”

•   금감원: 금감원, 2년간 내부회계관리 위반 97건 적발

•   금감원: [단독] 부당이익 50억원 챙긴 증권사들, 과태료는 9억원 불과

•   FIU: 반토막 난 국내 코인 시장...시총 반년만에 32조↓

•   신복위: 신복위, 청년 대출자 이자 부담 줄여준다

•   캠코: 캠코 동산담보회수지원기구 아직 ‘예비군’ 신세

•   주금공: [단독] 주택금융공사, PF보증서 발급 한도 90% 소진… 일부 지사는 발급 ‘보류’ 들어가

•   주금공: 안심전환대출, 신청 7일차 1조5658억원 접수…총 공급의 6.3% 소진

•   산은: 21년 표류 대우조선, 결국 한화에 팔린다

※   매경: 'M&A 승부사' 김승연의 재도전…육해공 방산그룹 큰 그림

※   매경: "자금여력 걱정없지만 '상선 적자'는 부담"

※   매경: 주인 찾은 대우조선, K조선 부활시킬까

※   매경: 한화 유증으로 대우조선 2조 수혈…채권단 5년 금융지원 약속

※   매경: "정권 초 아니면 매각 못한다"…HMM·KDB생명도 속도 낼듯

※   매경: 12조 쓰고, 2조에 팔아…산업은행 책임론 불가피

•   공정위: 공정위, 수수료 3500억 부당징수 의혹 애플코리아 현장조사

•   공정위: 자율규제 vs 법제화…'온플법' 충돌 예고

•   개보위: [단독] 피해자 측 동의없이 내부망에 개인정보 올린 서울교통공사

•   기재위(홍성국): 대외협력기금 관리부실 '심각'…35년간 부정 제재 고작 10건뿐

•   기재위(김상훈): 작년 공공기관에 들어간 세금 100조… 4년간 무려 31조 늘었다

•   기재위(진선미): 팬데믹 이후 자영업자 빚 부담 두배 늘었다

•   기재위(진선미): 연소득 1억원 넘는 사람 119만명…전체 소득자의 4.9%

•   기재부: 추경호 "韓경제, 글로벌 불황에도 건재"

•   한은: "희생 있더라도 물가 잡겠다" 힘실리는 한은 빅스텝

•   산자위, 환노위: 총수는 안불렀지만...삼성 현대차 네이버 줄줄이 국감장으로

•   산자위(박수영): [단독]강의동 없는 한전공대…임대료만 ‘125억’ 쓴다

•   산자위(박영순): 한전 '쪼개기 임대' 자구책…직원식당·체련실까지 세 놓아

•   산자위(구자근): 현대·기아 美보조금 4천억 받을때 테슬라는 한국서 160억 수령

•   산자위(김회재): [단독]정부 '모태펀드' 예산, 상장 실적 좋을수록 더 깎였다

•   산업부: 10대그룹 만난 이창양 "산업용 전기료 인상 불가피"

•   산업부: 휘발윳값 꺾였는데… 뒤늦게 공급가 공개 확대나선 산업부

•   국토부: 공공택지 '벌떼 입찰' 원천 차단

•   국토부: 정부, 경유 연동보조금 연말까지 3개월 연장

•   국토부: 국토부, 재건축 사업도 `추가 이주비` 규제 푼다

•   LH: LH, 프로젝트 파이낸싱 12곳서 1095억 날렸다

•   환노위(이주환): [단독] 文정부, 보 개방 피해 16억 배상 숨겼다

•   환노위(임이자): "文정부, 구직급여 43조원 지출…적자 전환에도 실업률 높아져"

•   고용부: 이정식 고용장관, 대전 현대아울렛 사고에 “중대재해법 적용 검토” 지시

•   고용부: 작년 산재사망 50% 건설업… 노동부, 현장 의견 담아 10월 ‘중대재해 감축 로드맵’ 발표

•   행안부: "지방이전 대기업에 세제 혜택 많이 줘야"…이상민 행정안전부 장관

•   과방위: 국감 핫이슈될 '망 사용료 법'...韓서 글로벌 여론전 펼쳐질 듯

•   과방위(이인영): [단독] '탈원전' 기조 바뀌자…경주에 소형 원자로 건립 필요성 첫 인정

•   방통위: [단독] 애플, 앱 결제 최대 1만1,000원 비싸다…"한국 소비자 호구로 보나"

•   서울시: 9평 관리비가 23만원!… 싸다더니, 청년주택이 너무해

[News]

•   WSJ: Russia’s War in Ukraine to Cost Global Economy $2.8 Trillion, OECD Says

※   Research body says loss of output could be larger if Europe faces energy shortages during a severe winter

※   OECD: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2022

•   WSJ: Russian Military-Recruitment Centers Attacked Amid Mobilization Pushback

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Zelensky Urges Russians to Keep Protesting Mobilization Orders

•   WSJ: Vladimir Putin Grants Edward Snowden Russian Citizenship

•   WSJ: Biden Administration Resists Call to Broaden Plan for Russia Oil-Price Cap

•   WSJ: Boston Fed President Says More Rate Increases Needed to Cool Inflation

•   WSJ: Rents Drop for First Time in Two Years After Climbing to Records

•   WSJ: NASA’s DART Spacecraft Slams Into Asteroid in Effort to Alter Its Orbit

•   WSJ: S&P Expects Fed to Keep Tight Policy Until Second Half of 2023

•   WSJ: China Reins In Its Belt and Road Program, $1 Trillion Later

•   WSJ: China PBOC Raises Forex Risk Reserve Ratio for Forward Trading

•   WSJ: Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Defends Bond-Buying Program Despite Yen Weakness

•   WSJ: IPO Stocks Have Tumbled, Hobbling Demand for New Listings

•   WSJ: Twitter, Elon Musk Spar Over Legal Preparations as Trial Date Looms

•   WSJ: Ford Asks for New Trial After $1.7 Billion Jury Verdict in Truck Rollover Lawsuit

•   WSJ: Small Businesses Get Creative as They Still Struggle With Hiring

•   WSJ: Google Sees Russia Coordinating With Hackers in Cyberattacks Tied to Ukraine War

•   NYT: White House Student Loan Forgiveness Could Cost About $400 Billion

•   NYT: The Dollar Is Strong. That Is Good for the U.S. but Bad for the World.

•   NYT: China Lets Its Currency Weaken Past a Key Barrier and Tries to Manage the Fall

•   NYT: How China Targets the Global Fish Supply

•   NYT: Why a Weak British Pound Matters

•   NYT: Iran Strikes Kurdish Separatist Groups in Northern Iraq

•   NYT: Monkeypox Appears to Recede, but Risks and Uncertainties Linger

•   NYT: Germany Readies Energy-Price Caps as Economic Pain Mounts

•   NYT: Interpol Issues ‘Red Notice’ for South Korean Crypto Founder Do Kwon

•   NYT: For China’s Auto Market, Electric Isn’t the Future. It’s the Present.

•   NYT: TikTok Seen Moving Toward U.S. Security Deal, but Hurdles Remain

•   WP: Trump can win the 2024 nomination the way he won in 2016: Barely

•   WP: The right-wing turn against Ukraine may be around the corner

•   FT: How significant is the sterling crisis?

•   FT: The dollar that Washington doesn’t yet want to weaken

•   FT: France aims to shield bigger companies as recession fears deepen in Europe

•   FT: Far-right wildcard Giorgia Meloni taps into Italians’ wish for radical change

•   FT: Kwarteng’s fiscal shift prompts split among Tory MPs

•   FT: Kwarteng’s fiscal thinking is put to the test

•   FT: UK business from airlines to brewers braced for higher costs as sterling falls

•   FT: UK lenders pause new mortgages amid market turmoil

•   FT: Truss’s net zero climate adviser urges investors to ditch shale gas

•   FT: Labour unveils £8bn plan for green investments with private sector

•   FT: How abortion rights are upending the US midterm elections

•   FT: Bolsonaro supporters reject bad news from Brazil election polls

•   FT: Inter-American Development Bank votes to oust Trump-era president

•   FT: Denmark warns on danger of spills from tankers carrying Russian oil

•   FT: Apple expands iPhone production in India in shift away from China

•   FT: Chief of Boeing-backed electric air taxi venture predicts sector ‘shakeout’

•   Bloomberg: Everything-Selloff on Wall Street Deepens on 98% Recession Odds

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Mester Says More Restrictive Policy Needed for Longer

•   Bloomberg: Biden Team Monitoring Markets Amid Volatility, White House Says

•   Bloomberg: Remote Work Drove Over 60% of House-Price Surge, Fed Study Finds

•   Bloomberg: US Would Trade Reserve Oil for Profit, Invest in EVs Under Democrats’ Bill

•   Bloomberg: Consumer Debt Hits Record for Most Americans, Except the Wealthy

•   Bloomberg: Lagarde Says ECB Will Debate QT Once It Has Normalized Rates

•   Bloomberg: ECB Rates Bets Show Traders Are Convinced of Second 75bp Hike

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Newest Governor Warns of Danger From Inflation ‘Disease’

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Simkus Says Half Point Is the Minimum Hike for October

•   Bloomberg: ECB to Remain ‘Extremely Vigilant’ of Inflation Expectations, de Cos says

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Guindos Says Soaring Prices Are Europe’s Main Problem

•   Bloomberg: China’s Commodities Demand Faces Another Headwind in Weaker Yuan

•   Bloomberg: China’s $1 Trillion Trade Boom Won’t Stop Yuan Slide, Macquarie Says

•   Bloomberg: Traders Who ‘Just Want to Survive’ Sit on $5 Trillion Cash Pile

•   Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley Says Dollar Surge Tends to End in Crisis

•   Bloomberg: Buy US Treasuries to Prepare for 2023 Downturn, Citi Strategist Says

•   Bloomberg: Russian Crude Is Slowly Being Squeezed Out of Europe

•   Bloomberg: German Diesel Deal Boosts Mideast Flows to Replace Russian Fuel

•   Bloomberg: Iran’s Oil Exports Fall as Competition From Russia in Asia Grows

•   Bloomberg: Weaker Demand for Chinese Goods Spells End of Shipping Boom

•   Reuters: Analysis: Crowd of dollar bulls raises risk of violent pullback

•   CNBC: The ‘real cure’ for inflation has gone ignored, Steve Forbes says

•   CNBC: Wharton’s Siegel says Jerome Powell owes ‘the American people an apology’ for poor Fed policy

•   MarketWatch: If chip production is recovering, why are automakers still making fewer cars?

•   Fox Business: Bond market crash foreshadows new lows for US stock market, BofA warns

•   SCMP: ‘Painful lessons’: call for China’s Communist Party to avoid ‘strategic mistakes’

•   SCMP: Electric cars: Beijing extends exemption from 5 per cent purchase tax to end of 2023 in boost for sector

•   SCMP: Explainer | China yuan: what can the central bank do to prevent the currency weakening against the US dollar?

•   SCMP: US-China relations: economic globalisation has forever changed, warns ex-finance minister Lou Jiwei

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan details October's full tourism reopening: 6 things to know

•   Nikkei Asia: U.S. will need more time for trade liberalization: former USTR official

•   Economic Times: S&P retains FY23 growth forecast at 7.3%; OECD at 6.9%

•   Economic Times: Can India economy stay steady amid global turmoil? These 8 charts sum it up

•   매경: "한국 아시아서 가장 위험"…'제2 IMF' 경고 쏟아지는 이유

•   매경: "원화값 1500원도 각오해야"…개입할수록 투기세력 가세 '딜레마'

•   매경: 코스피 1900선 전망까지 나왔다…악재만 쌓이고 호재 안보여

•   매경: 미래에셋, IFC 인수 무산 후폭풍…대체투자업계도 '꽁꽁'

•   매경: "이념에 잠식됐던 韓경제, 해법은 시장자유"

•   매경: 美조지아 상원의원 "현대차 역차별 안돼"

•   매경: LG엔솔 삼성SDI 주무기 였는데…중국업체 '이것'까지 눈독

•   한경: "재판매 않겠다" 동의해야 판다…에루샤·나이키, 리셀과의 전쟁

•   한경: 코스닥 얼어붙자…확 줄어든 무상증자

•   한경: 국내 주식도 0.1株씩 사고 판다…소수점거래, 연내 12개 증권사로 확대

•   서경: [시그널] '물적분할' 빗장에…대기업 '인적분할' 승부수

•   조선: [단독] “北, 핵개발에 2조원 써… 4년치 식량난 해결할 수 있는 돈”

•   조선: 대리기사 “노조 전임자 임금 달라”... 카카오모빌리티는 난색

•   조선: [단독] 삼성, 미래전략실 해체 이후 5년만에 첫 사장단 회의

•   조선: “금모으기했던 국민들, 달러 사기 바빠” 금융위 前부위원장 발언 역풍

•   조선비즈: 국민 60%, 고물가·고금리에 지갑 닫는다… 내년까지 소비 ‘꽁꽁’

•   조선비즈: “1400원이 천장”… 달러 ‘곱버스’에 1000억원 태운 개미들

•   조선비즈: “美 긴축發 환율쇼크, ‘한미 통화스와프’ 만능열쇠 아냐”…외환당국, 달러 수급 개선으로 해법 찾는다

•   조선비즈: 역성장 맞닥뜨린 K반도체… 삼성전자·SK하이닉스 실적 ‘빨간불’

•   조선비즈: [사이언스카페] 공정 관리부터 3D 건축까지, 건설 현장 누비는 드론

•   인베스트조선: 금융지주 때 아닌 출자경쟁...자금줄 마른 VC '구원투수' 기대감

•   인베스트조선: '이자장사' 모면 노력에도 벌어진 예대금리차…커지는 부작용 우려

•   중앙: 연금곳간 비는 2057년… 월급 30% 보험료에 “젊음이 죄냐” 저항

•   동아: 제철소 수해-파업… 조선-車업계 ‘철강대란’ 비상

•   동아: [단독]“美보호무역, 결국 소비자 피해… 정부 정책이 경쟁 방해 말아야”

•   문화: 시멘트 “가격인상 불가피” vs 레미콘 “이대로면 셧다운”

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 상방압력 곳곳에...高苦물가

•   헤럴드경제: 국내 재생에너지 비중 고작 2%…기업, RE100 하고 싶어도 힘든 현실

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "예금 뺏길라" … 저축은행 '눈물 겨운' 수신금리 인상

•   아시아경제(P1): [인구절벽]①"한집 건너 한집이 빈집"…지난달 '출생아 0명' 대구 내당동 르포

•   아시아경제: [인구절벽]②30년 후 인천 동구, 부산 영도구 사라집니다

•   아시아경제: [인구절벽]③"저출산 해법은 '삶의 질' 개선…교육·노동·주거 불균형 해소"

•   아시아경제: [도시정비 신탁의 시대①]정부가 미는 신탁사업의 ‘득과 실’

•   디지털타임스: `연 5300억` 아까워서 어쩌나… `탈러시아` 망설이는 현대차

•   이데일리: “3高인데 보험료까지...”3세대 실손보험도 인상되나

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 3만7254명 확진…진단검사 늘며 어제의 2.7배

•   연합: '상속·지배구조 개편용 실탄'…오너일가 주식담보 대출 5조원대

•   연합: "국민 10명중 6명 하반기 소비 줄일 계획…물가·빚 때문에"

•   KBS: [단독] ‘가상계좌’ 5만 개, 피싱에 동원…결제대행사 대표 등 7명 구속

•   KBS: [탐사K/론스타ISDS]⑪ 승패 가른 최종 심리…하나금융 증언 신뢰성 ‘추궁’

•   이투데이: [단독] 코픽스서 씨티은행 제외된다…은행연, 코픽스관리위원회 28일 개최

•   이투데이: [단독]물가 1%P 오르면 취업자 14만 명 감소…고물가에 일자리도 증발

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Robert D. Kaplan): Russia, Iran, and the Perils of Post-Autocracy

•   Project Syndicate(Abe Shinzō): Realizing a Free and Open Indo-Pacific

•   Project Syndicate(Mark Leonard): Preparing for the Long War

•   Project Syndicate(Andrés Velasco): God Save the Pound?

•   Project Syndicate(Bill Emmott): Giorgia Meloni’s Moment

•   FT(Editorial Board): Markets take fright over Britain’s economic strategy

•   FT(Ruchir Sharma): The seven economic wonders of a worried world

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Putin’s nuclear threats cannot be ignored

•   FT(Katie Martin): Stop looking for a bogeyman to explain sterling’s collapse

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): What’s next

•   FT(Toby Nangle): Kwarteng has shaken investor confidence in the UK

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The U.S.-U.K. Trade Fail

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Italian Right’s Moment of Truth

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): A Gore-Kerry Political Climate Hit

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Liz Truss’s Big Gamble on the U.K. Economy

•   NYT(Mattia Ferraresi): Giorgia Meloni Is Extreme, but She’s No Tyrant

•   NYT(Kori Schake): Biden’s Cautious Foreign Policy Is Imperiling the United States

•   WP(Jennifer Rubin): Putin’s debacle is breaking his country — and he might pay the price

•   WP(Joseph Cirincione): Putin says nuclear threat is no bluff. We should take him at his word.

•   WP(Sebastian Mallaby): Britain has replaced Italy as Europe’s problem economy

•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Why Investors Are Facing Even More Market Instability

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): Emerging Market Currency Crisis Tag Is Alarming for Britain

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): Commodity Markets Brace for a Rampant Dollar

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): Truss’s Economic Plan Isn’t the Disaster Everyone Says It Is

•   Bloomberg(Allison Schrager): Norman Rockwell Policies Won’t Save the US Economy

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): So You Say You’re Bearish on Stocks, But Are You Really?

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Beware the ‘Cover Curse:’ How to Tell When a Market Meltdown Is Overdone

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Liz Truss's Cryptic £40 Billion Bailout for Energy Traders

•   Bloomberg(Anjani Trivedi): Tesla’s Big Batteries Aren’t the Fire Problem. Lithium Is

•   한경(이우종): 美 인플레 감축법 처방책은

•   서경(김지영): 김주현 위원장의 말 바꾸기 리스크

•   조선(양재진): 70%에 무조건 주는 기초연금, 바꿔야 한다

•   중앙(신성호): 과거 다섯 차례 주가 하락, 환율 정점을 고비로 멈췄다