Global Economic Monitor 220922

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks gyrate, dollar gains as Fed keeps hawkish stance

※   The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) closed down 1.7%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 1.71%

•   Gasoline: U.S. Gas Prices End Streak of Declines Just Short of 100 Days

•   Metals: Aluminium falls to 18-month low as markets brace for U.S. rate rise

•   Metals: Electric-Car Demand Pushes Lithium Prices to Records

•   Grains: Wheat climbs as Ukraine war escalation feared

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Lingers Near Three-Month Low After Fed Increases Rates

•   한국: 코스피, 외인·기관 '팔자'에 2,340대 후퇴…환율 1,390원 상회

•   한국: 국채금리도 급등…한국 3년물 年 3.858%, 11년 만에 최고치

[Indicators]

•   US Benchmark rate: Fed Raises Interest Rates by 0.75 Percentage Point for Third Straight Meeting

※   Officials project short-term rates will rise above 4.25% by year’s end, signal further large increases at coming meetings

※   Fed: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

※   Fed: Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 20-21 FOMC meeting

※   WSJ: Transcript: Jerome Powell’s Postmeeting Press Conference

※   WSJ: Powell Doesn’t Have to Go Full Volcker for Stocks to Drop

※   WSJ: How the Fed’s Rate Increase Will Hit Americans’ Monthly Budgets

•   US Aug. Existing home sales: U.S. Home Sales and Prices Fell in August as Mortgage Rates Rose

※   The housing market has slowed from a red-hot pace as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Mortgage demand rises for the first time in six weeks, despite sharply higher interest rates

•   Taiwan Aug. export orders: Taiwan’s Exporters Struggle as Demand from China Falls

•   한국 9월 1~20일 수출: 9월 1∼20일 무역적자 41억달러…25년만에 6개월째 적자 가능성

[Lawmakers & Policies]

•   대정부질문: 한덕수 "IRA 논란 송구…한미회담서 논의할 것"

•   민주당: ‘선심은 내가, 부담은 정부가’…재정 고민없는 당리당략 제1야당

•   방통위: 메타 부사장, 연일 방통위·국회 방문… 개보위 과징금 부과 일주일만

•   송석준: [단독] "고객님, 이걸 등록하시면요~" 3년간 리볼빙 민원만 260건

•   윤창현: 금융사, 감독분담금·예보료 연 5조 육박

•   윤창현: [단독]"이번엔 어디?" 금융사 횡령 매년 터졌다…힘 실리는 내부통제 개선

•   윤영덕: 주금공 전세금보증 40%가 고신용자… 저신용자는 고작 12%

•   정일영: [단독] "전기료도 못내는 기업 확 늘었다"...한전 '좀비 주식'에 돈 떼이는 '이중고'

•   박성준: 하도급업체 기술 훔쳐도 과징금 고작 10억원…5년여간 11건 제재

•   강민국: 보험사기 적발액 5년여간 5조원…올해 1조원 넘을 듯

•   김상훈: 세금 체납으로 압류된 가상자산 2천598억원…개인 최고 125억원

•   임이자: [단독]文정부 10조원 투입한 ‘일자리안정자금’… 지원대상 30%가 퇴사

•   천준호: 지방소멸 대책 ‘건물 집착’

•   이정문: [단독] 대통령실 슬림화? 인력 줄이고, 예산은 270억원 늘었다

•   강훈식: '국민간식' 치킨 프랜차이즈업체 식품위생법 위반 5년간 900여건

•   한국은행: 원화값 추락에…한은·국민연금 통화스왑 추진

•   금융위: 이재명 '2호 법안' 반대한 정부

•   금융위: [단독] 김주현 금융위원장, 26일 은행장들과 첫 만찬 회동 갖는다

•   금융위: [OK!제보] 태풍 피해자 대출상환 유예해준다?…기간 끝나면 '상환금 폭탄'

•   금감원: [단독] '거액 해외송금' 압수수색…우리은행 직원 체포

•   금감원: 이복현 원장 "에디슨EV처럼 검찰 넘길 사건 있다...불공정거래 엄하게 처벌"

•   금감원: [단독]금감원, 태양광 조사 2금융권으로 확대...농협·산은캐피탈 타깃

•   주금공: 안심전환대출, 접수 4일차 1만771건 신청…누적 1조원 넘겨

•   주금공: 주금공, 단독·다가구 주택 전세금 반환보증 한도 줄인다

•   신용회복위: 500만원 없어 신불자 된 청년들…다음주 '특례채무조정' 나온다

•   기재부, 산업부: [단독] 적폐 꼬리표 뗀 자원개발…정부 출자 비중 20%로 늘린다

※   서경: 자본잠식 석유公 우회 지원…10년 멈춘 '자원개발 시계' 다시 돈다

※   서경: SK, 말레이 광구 지분 낙찰·본격 탐사…LG엔솔, 호주서 니켈·코발트 공급받아

※   서경: 中, 리튬 등 핵심광물 이미 장악…日은 아프리카에 42조 투자

•   기재부: [단독] 올겨울 에너지 대란, 특단의 대책 - 공공기관 난방온도 17도

•   산업부: 산업용 전기요금 더 올린다

•   산업부: 산업부, 재생에너지 발전사업 주민수용성 강화 대책 마련

•   국토부: 지방 부동산규제, 세종 빼고 다 풀었다

※   보도자료: 지방 광역시·도 조정대상지역 전면 해제

※   매경: 서울 경기 규제는 그대로…"부동산 한파 녹이기엔 역부족"

•   국토부: [단독] 자율주행 화물차, 이르면 내년 고속도로 실증 개시

•   고용부: [단독] "쓸 돈 써가면서 청년지원" 공약했던 예산도 싹둑

•   고용부: [단독] 법원, 주 32시간 근무하다 숨진 증권사 직원 업무상 재해 인정

•   법무부: 법무부, 이달 중 론스타 판정문 공개할듯

•   환경부: 치료용 동위원소 생산이 ‘친환경 활동’?…황당한 녹색분류체계

•   교육부: [단독] 시장경제 핵심 '자유경쟁' 학교 교과서 시안서 삭제

[News]

•   WSJ: Putin Orders Draft of Reservists for Ukraine War, Threatens Nuclear Response

※   The Russian president’s move sought to bolster his faltering military, while Biden called on world leaders to unite against Putin

•   WSJ: Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Under Pressure Over Ukraine War, Turns to Familiar Escalation Playbook

•   WSJ: Putin’s Escalation Faces Risks in Russia-Ukraine War

•   WSJ: Russia, Ukraine Swap Prisoners in Deal Brokered by Saudi Arabia

•   WSJ: China, India Stand by Russia Despite Its Setbacks in Ukraine War

•   WSJ: Biden Urges the World to Stand United Against Russia in Address to U.N.

※   U.S. president says ‘Russia has shamelessly violated the core tenets of the United Nations charter’

•   WSJ: Escalating Threats From Russia on Ukraine Roil U.N. Meeting

•   WSJ: Wall Street CEOs Cautious About Path of U.S. Economy

•   WSJ: Workers’ Changing Attitudes Tighten Labor Market

•   WSJ: High Natural-Gas Prices Push European Manufacturers to Shift to the U.S.

•   WSJ: Iran’s President Dismisses Western Criticism Amid Women’s Rights Protests at Home

•   WSJ: EU Battles Russian Narrative Over Global Food Crisis

•   WSJ: Meta and Google Are Cutting Staff. Just Don’t Mention Layoffs.

•   WSJ: Walmart Slows Holiday Hiring With Plan to Add 40,000 Seasonal Workers

•   WSJ: Boeing to Cut About 150 Finance Jobs in the U.S.

•   NYT: Can Ukraine Break Through Again?

•   NYT: How Republicans Could Win Control of the House

•   NYT: United Nations Gridlock Is Back in the Latest Sign of a Receding Pandemic

•   NYT: How a Looming Oil Ban Could Devastate a Small Italian City

•   NYT: One-way flights from Russia are selling out or skyrocketing in price.

•   FT: Germany nationalises struggling utility Uniper in €29bn bailout

※   Berlin will take control of what was once Europe’s biggest importer of Russian gas

•   FT: Why Putin is raising the stakes in Ukraine war

•   FT: West shrugs off Putin’s nuclear ‘bluff’ and vows to keep up Ukraine support

•   FT: European businesses forced to ‘reduce, localise and silo’ in China

•   FT: Italy at risk of turning back on Brussels in favour of east Europe, tycoon warns

•   FT: Trussonomics gamble does not have long to prove itself

•   FT: UK to cut business energy prices by more than half

•   FT: UK companies call for more details over energy support cliff-edge

•   FT: UK’s yawning current account deficit raises financing risks

•   FT: Europe must resist industry efforts to cash in on energy crisis, warns Al Gore

•   FT: Kerry calls for global financial reform over climate change

•   FT: US bank chiefs warn of China exit if Taiwan is attacked

•   FT: Learning to love the long end

•   FT: The Taiwanese chip billionaire squaring up to China

•   FT: US clean energy CEOs call for red tape clear out to meet climate aims

•   FT: Tencent chooses health over wealth in gaming return

•   FT: Apple to use TSMC’s next 3-nm chip tech in iPhones and Macs next year

•   Bloomberg: ‘Buckle Up’ as Inflation Fight Threatens Growth, IMF Chief Warns

•   Bloomberg: Russia Sees Smaller Economic Hit From Sanctions as War Escalates

•   Bloomberg: Biden, Truss Pledge Unity on Ukraine, Ireland in Meeting

•   Bloomberg: Biden Policies to Boost Investment, Slow Inflation, Deese Says

•   Bloomberg: China’s Central Bank Signals It Has Policy Space to Ease

•   Bloomberg: Developer China Fortune Land’s Debt Plan Meets Resistance

•   Bloomberg: BOJ Announces Unscheduled Bond Buying as Yields Stay at Ceiling

•   Bloomberg: India Expands Incentives for Chip, Display Units in Renewed Push

•   Bloomberg: Africa Poised for Rate-Hike Week, Though Outliers Multiply

•   Bloomberg: Trump-Picked World Bank Boss Faces Calls for Ouster Over Climate

•   Bloomberg: Electric-Car Charger Installation Costs: Tesla Shows How to Keep Prices Low

•   Bloomberg: China Leading Race to Make Technology Vital for Green Hydrogen

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: How to Boost Worker Productivity Without Performance Reviews

•   Reuters: Exclusive: NATO chief calls Putin's nuclear threat a 'dangerous' escalation

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE NATO chief Stoltenberg calls China a security challenge

•   Reuters: Russian opposition calls for protests against Putin's 'criminal war'

•   Reuters: EU gives green light for $5.2 bln in state aid for hydrogen development

•   Reuters: Exclusive: India govt 'in no hurry' on medium-term inflation target - sources

•   Reuters: U.S. rents surge, leaving behind generation of younger workers

•   Reuters: Big U.S. banks' prime rate soars to highest since financial crisis

•   Reuters: Analysis: Europe energy crisis may deepen with looming liquidity crunch

•   Reuters: Analysis: Rally in U.S. consumer stocks teeters with Fed, inflation in focus

•   CNBC: For the first time in 30 years, Asia’s developing economies are set to grow faster than China’s, ADB says

※   The Asian Development Bank now sees growth among emerging Asian economies of 4.3% in 2022 and 4.9% in 2023.

※   ADB: Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022 Update: Entrepreneurship in the Digital Age

•   CNBC: Why Apple, Google and Microsoft are spending more time on TikTok

•   MarketWatch: Larry Summers predicted inflation, but now he's looking on the bright side

•   SCMP: China’s EU chamber warns ‘ideology is trumping the economy’ as zero-Covid sets up worst-case scenario

•   SCMP: What does it take to get promoted in Chinese politics? Up-and-comers offer clues

•   SCMP: China brings cash to former Soviet republics in bid to win favour with Central Asian ‘stans’

•   Nikkei Asia: U.S.-China decoupling not Washington's goal: diplomat

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Xi's new diplomacy keeps Putin's war at arm's length

•   매경(P1): "이젠 기업이 우주개척자…정부주도 시대 끝"

•   매경: 메타버스 창시자 로즈데일 "웹3.0이 구글·메타 독점 깨트릴것"

•   매경: "코로나때 입사한 20대 대면근무 낯설어…'무조건 출근'은 역효과" [세지포]

•   매경: 우주개척 향한 '콜럼버스의 항해' 시작…10년후 화성땅 밟는다

•   매경: 美 긴축 가속에 강달러 지속…원화값 연말 1500원 뚫릴 수도

•   매경: "美 기준금리 5%까지 올려야 고물가 잡힐 것"

•   매경: "거세진 신냉전 구도에 中 기술개발 막혀"…"中과소평가 말라, 혁신기업 美보다 많아"

•   매경: 美 인플레법이 수소가격 낮출 것…韓 수소 수입·사용계획 미리 짜야

•   매경(P1): 이재용 "손정의, ARM 인수 제안할것"

•   매경(P1): 유엔총장 만난 尹 "北 개방 선택하면 대규모 투자"

•   매경: 정부 '오락가락' 코로나 대출 만기연장에…은행·자영업자 '혼란'

•   매경: "차량용 반도체 공급난, 내년 중반께 해소될 것"

•   매경: 열연강판 유통값 일주일새 10% 올라

•   매경: 韓기업 생산비용 9% 급증…13년 만에 최대폭

•   매경: 회사채 상환하고 은행대출 받는 기업 는다

•   매경: 서울 전세매물 3만8천건…3개월 새 40% 이상 늘어

•   매경: "아낄건 인건비 뿐"…나홀로 사장님 올해 17만명 늘어

•   매경: [Science in Biz] 날로 확대되는 녹색에너지…변동성 관리 못하면 '빨간불'

•   매경: [Industry Review] 지속가능성 공시제도 '이중 중요성'이 필요한 까닭

•   한경(P1): [단독] 은행, PF대출 중단…개발사업 '초비상'

•   한경: 불안한 금융권 '미분양' 긴급 분석…건설사 사업 리스크 다시 뜯어본다

•   한경: "소형은 주택 수 제외…임대투자 수요 끌어들여야"

•   한경: 한 번도 경험 못한 '퍼펙트 스톰' 온다…커지는 '공포'

•   한경: "금리 인상 불가피하지만…强달러 피해 1980년대보다 클 것"

•   한경: "인플레 잡는게 급선무…금리 인상 선제적으로 세게 해야"

※   KDI: 2022 G20 글로벌 금융안정 컨퍼런스

•   한경: 역대급 '분양 쇼크' 온다…이번 주 입주자 모집공고 '단 1건'

•   한경: 대법 "부당해고 미지급 임금, 평균임금의 70% 이상은 돼야"

•   서경: 하루 20만원' 버는 대형택시…“가고 싶어도 못 가요”

•   서경: 금융 '디지털 전환' 빨라지는데…발목 잡는 '망 분리'

•   서경: [단독] "시세보다 싸도 안살래요"…사전청약 무더기 포기 속출

•   서경: 건산연 "지자체 발주사업 공사비 현실화해야"

•   인베스트조선: 금융지주 '연말 태풍' 다가오는데...'빈손'으로 해외 순방 나서는 회장님들

•   인베스트조선: 차갑게 식은 자본시장 잡마켓…"보너스 받고 퇴사하던 직원들...올해 1/10로 줄었습니다"

•   인베스트조선: 부동산PF 부실 확대에 'NPL 관리' 나서는 증권업계…누가 사갈까

•   인베스트조선: 세종·율촌도 1억5000만원…올해 로펌 초봉 경쟁 일단락

•   인베스트조선: 돈 벌기보다 쓰는 스토리?…의심 받는 SK그룹 파이낸셜 스토리

•   중앙(P1): 유턴 기업 대표는 일용직 됐다…"한국 오지말라" 그의 눈물

•   JTBC: [단독] 자금난 뒤엔…'2700채 갭투자' 건설사 대표 있었다

•   JTBC: [단독] 새 아파트 짓다 만 채…40억 전세계약금 떼일 위기

•   동아(P1): 스타트업의 겨울… 투자유치 1년새 3조→8000억

•   문화: 무역적자 땐 외국인 ‘셀 코리아’ 확률 28.3% 증가한다

•   한국: 숨통 죄는 환율, 한미 통화스와프 안 하나 못하나

•   서울: “하루만 맡겨도 연 3%”… 초단기 돈 굴리기 경쟁 불붙은 저축銀·인뱅

•   한겨레(P1): 쌀값 45년 만에 최대 폭락…대풍년 볏짚만큼 쌓이는 시름

•   머니투데이: "탱크 1기가 축구장 하나" 국내 최대 LNG터미널 건설 현장 가보니[르포]

•   머니투데이: 열차 창문·매표소 유리에 날씨·관광 정보가…진화하는 LGD 투명 OLED

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 침수·산재 이어 파업 리스크까지... 산업계 '철강 대란' 위기감 확산

•   이데일리(P1): ‘그 많던 자금, 씨가 말랐다’…자본 시장에 퍼지는 펀딩 주의보

•   이데일리: 유튜버들 문자 폭탄 왜?…구글 망무임승차방지법 대응 문제없나[이슈분석]

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 3만1464명 확진…어제보다 8천여명 줄어

•   연합: 韓조선, 발주 급증한 친환경연료船 싹쓸이…점유율 56.6%

•   뉴스핌: 'RE100' 두고 딜레마에 빠진 기업들...국내 공장 해외이전 우려

•   SBS: [단독] 순식간에 개인정보 100만 건…뻥뻥 뚫린 기업들

•   SBS Biz: [단독] '고양이에게 생선을'…은행권 횡령 타금융권 전체의 2.5배

•   디지털투데이: [단독] 개인정보보호위원장에 고학수 서울대 로스쿨 교수 내정

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Jeffrey Frankel): In the Dollar We Trust

•   Project Syndicate(Mariana Mazzucato, et al.): Transforming the Economics and Governance of Water

•   Project Syndicate(Yanis Varoufakis): How the West Poisoned Its Money

•   Project Syndicate(Anne O. Krueger): Biden’s Trade War Against Himself

•   FT(Editorial Board): Vladimir Putin’s desperate roll of the dice

•   FT(Robert Shrimsley): ‘Trussonomics’ may be shaky but the politics could still work

•   FT(Gillian Tett): Business needs selfish reasons to be green

•   FT(Edward Luce): Saudi Arabia and the US are drifting back on to the rocks

•   FT(Mohamed El-Erian): Truss Faces Four Hurdles to Spur Growth in UK

•   FT(Clifford Asness): Stocks and bonds are still not cheap

•   FT(Luis Garicano): The ECB’s new backstop introduces atrocious incentives

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): No Student Loan Borrower Left Behind

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Liz Truss Economic Plan to Save Britain

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Putin’s Desperate Ukraine Escalation

•   WSJ(Helen Raleigh): The West Mimics Mao, Takes a Green Leap Forward

•   WSJ(Burton G. Malkiel): Don’t Give Up on the Stock Market

•   WSJ(Morgan Ortagus): A Snapback to Reality in the Iran Nuclear-Deal Talks

•   WSJ(Burton G. Malkiel): Don’t Give Up on the Stock Market

•   NYT(Thomas L. Friedman): Three Paths Toward an Endgame for Putin’s War

•   NYT(Ross Douthat): Can Republicans Tax the Rich?

•   WP(Editorial Board): The Fed’s rate hikes will hurt. That’s unavoidable.

•   WP(Editorial Board): Putin is getting desperate. Ukraine and the West must keep the pressure on.

•   WP(David Ignatius): Putin’s annexation plan is desperate and dangerous

•   WP(Max Boot): Don’t let Putin bluff us. Russia is losing.

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): The Fed Should Be Willing to Cause a Recession

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): Inflation Is Best Explained by This Underrated Economic Theory

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Fed Splits the Difference on Labor Market Pain

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Four Big Market Things to Know That Aren’t the Fed

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): Is China Done With Its Market Crackdown? Ask Fosun.

•   Bloomberg(Julian Lee): Europe Must Seize More Russia Refineries: Elements by Julian Lee

•   Bloomberg(James Stavridis): Putin’s New Cannon Fodder Won’t Win the Ukraine War

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): Putin's Nuclear Threat: A Guide to How Biden Might Decide to Respond

•   Bloomberg(Bobby Ghosh): Biden’s UN Speech Was the Sound of One Hand Slapping

•   Bloomberg(Thomas Black): Freight Costs Fueled Inflation. Can They Dampen It Now?

•   CNN(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Many have lost faith in the Fed. Will it be able to win our trust again?

•   MarketWatch(Peter Morici): The U.S. must take the lead on globalization if it hopes to compete with China

•   MarketWatch(Marc Jarsulic): Expecting the Fed to solve inflation on its own ignores important root causes that the Fed can't touch

•   Fox News(Victoria Coates, Bonnie Glick): Ukraine's China problem, and how to solve it

•   매경(이정민): 시장경제에서 동일노동-동일임금

•   한경(박희권): 국가 생존, 인구 문제에 달렸다