Global Economic Monitor 220902

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks slide, dollar soars as September starts stormy

※   Dollar hits 24-year high against yen; euro, sterling slide

※   MSCI world stock index falls for fifth straight day

※   US S&P 500 recover to finish higher, Europe down over 1%, Nikkei down 1.5%

※   Industrial metals suffer heavy falls

※   U.S. yields climb, oil prices dip

•   UK: Sterling posts worst monthly fall since wake of 2016 Brexit referendum

•   Japan: Japanese yen falls to 140 per dollar for 1st time since 1998

•   Natural gas: Europe Gas Fluctuates as Traders Weigh Russian Supply Risks

•   Electricity: German Power Price Halves in Three Days on EU Crisis Plans

•   Metals: Aluminium lurches to 16-month low on renewed demand fears

•   Grains: Wheat, corn, soy fall on economic concerns as U.S. Midwest harvest nears

•   한국: 코스피 2,410대로 추락…환율, 하루 만에 또 연고점 경신

[Indicators]

•   OPEC Aug. Oil output: OPEC Output Surges as Libyan Rebound Adds to Gulf Increase

•   US Jul. Construction spending: Single-family homebuilding weighs on U.S. construction spending in July

•   US Aug. Manufacturing PMI(ISM): US Manufacturing Growth Holds Steady, Inflation Pressures Ease

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level in Two Months

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates(Freddie Mac): Mortgage Rates Rise to 5.66%

•   Eurozone Jul. Employment: Eurozone jobless rate hits record low of 6.6% in July

•   UK Aug. House prices: UK house prices rise at annual rate of 10% despite steeper mortgage costs

•   China 2021 Marriages: China Marriages Dive to Record Low as Population Pressures Mount

•   China Aug. Manufacturing PMI(Caixin): China's August factory activity shrinks as orders weaken - Caixin PMI

•   India Aug. Employment: India Jobless Rate Rises to One-Year High in August, CMIE Says

•   India Aug. GST collections: August GST revenue collection up 28% YoY at Rs 1.44 lakh cr

•   India Aug. Manufacturing PMI: India's manufacturing growth trends higher as input cost inflation eases

•   India Aug. Diesel demand: India's August diesel demand slumps due to monsoon rains

•   Brazil Q2 GDP: Brazil’s Economy Continues Strong Expansion in Second Quarter

•   Brazil Aug. Balance of trade: Brazil posts trade surplus of $4.165 billion in August, above expected

•   Indonesia Aug. CPI: Indonesia’s Core Inflation Hits 3-Year High on Surging Demand

•   한국 2분기 GDP(잠정): 高환율 따른 무역손실 국민소득 깎아먹었다

•   한국 2분기 주요 기관투자가 외화증권 투자: 주가 하락에…2분기 기관 해외증권투자 228억 달러 감소

•   한국 2분기 은행 부실채권: 2분기 은행 부실채권비율 0.41% '역대 최저'

•   한국 7월 온라인 쇼핑; 일상회복 후 첫 여름휴가… 7월 여행 온라인 거래액 사상 최대

•   한국 8월 무역수지: 8월 수입액 역대 1위에 무역적자 100억달러 육박…66년만에 최대

※   한경: 무역수지 적자, 상품수지 흑자 왜?

•   한국 8월 은행 여신 잔액: 코로나 상환유예 끝나는데…시중銀 중기대출 급증

•   한국 8월 은행 여신 잔액: 금리 상승기에도 인터넷은행 대출 8개월째 증가세

•   한국 8월 자동차 판매: 수출에 집중한 완성차업계… 8월 판매 11% 늘었다

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 수도권 집값 낙폭 확대…17개 광역시·도 일제히 하락

[News]

•   WSJ: U.N. Report Says China May Have Committed Crimes Against Humanity in Xinjiang

※   China lobbied heavily against the report, released in the final minutes of Michelle Bachelet’s term as U.N. rights-agency chief

•   WSJ: Xinjiang Rights Report Ratchets Up Standoff Between the U.S. and China

•   WSJ: U.N. Inspectors Reach Russian-Held Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant in Ukraine

•   WSJ: Ukraine Says Russia Is Using Cargo Ships to Ferry Weapons to the Black Sea

•   WSJ: Russia Committed Potential Crimes Against Humanity With Forcible Transfers, Rights Group Says

•   WSJ: Lukoil Executive Dies After Falling From Hospital Window, Russia State Media Says

•   WSJ: Judge to Unseal More Detailed List of Materials Seized at Mar-a-Lago

•   WSJ: Biden to Say in Prime-Time Address Democracy Is at Stake in Midterm Elections

•   WSJ: Independent Voters Now Tilting Toward Democrats in Midterm Elections, WSJ Poll Finds

•   WSJ: New Dallas Fed Chief Puts Inflation Fight on Front Burner

•   WSJ: America is Getting Battery Plants—What About Mines?

•   WSJ: Covid Boosters Targeting Omicron Recommended by CDC

•   WSJ: America Could Face Its Own Gas Crisis, or Worsen Europe’s

•   WSJ: The U.K., a Maritime Insurance Hub, Commits to Cap Price of Russian Oil

•   WSJ: Europe Weighs Price Cap to Bring Down Electricity Prices

•   WSJ: In China, Some Cities Edge Into Covid-19 Lockdowns Ahead of Party Congress

•   WSJ: Sri Lanka, IMF Reach Deal on $2.9 Billion Rescue Package

•   WSJ: As the U.S. Dollar Surges, American Buyers Splurge on European Homes

•   WSJ: Blackstone, Carlyle Take Different Sides on Oil-and-Gas Investment

•   WSJ: Ukraine Decries TotalEnergies’ Russia Dividend as ‘Blood Money’

•   WSJ: Microsoft’s Activision Deal Raises Competition Concerns, Says U.K. Watchdog

•   WSJ: Tech Companies Say Going Private Comes With Benefits

•   NYT: U.S. Restricts Sales of Sophisticated Chips to China and Russia

※   Limits were placed on high-end GPUs that power supercomputers and artificial intelligence, said Nvidia and AMD, two Silicon Valley chip makers.

•   NYT: Amid Heat Wave, California Asks Electric Vehicle Owners to Limit Charging

•   NYT: Will a Renewed Iran Nuclear Deal Mean Cheaper Energy?

•   NYT: Tech Companies Slowly Shift Production Away From China

•   WP: Taiwan shoots down civilian drone as tensions with China simmer

※   raising fears of a military conflict as Taipei pushes back against increased Chinese intimidation

•   WP: Ukrainian farms feed Europe and China. Russia wants to end that.

•   WP: With NAFO, Ukraine turns the trolls on Russia

•   FT: Putin calls Ukraine an ‘enclave’ and reiterates threat to western gas supplies

•   FT: What are the EU’s plans to curb electricity prices?

•   FT: Spain’s cost of living crisis dents PM Pedro Sánchez’s popularity

•   FT: Brussels warns Truss on triggering Article 16

•   FT: What business wants from a Truss premiership

•   FT: Biden is suddenly winning on energy

•   FT: China waits on ‘miracle’ to end zero-Covid policy

•   FT: China’s carbon emissions fall 8% as economic growth slows

•   FT: Zambia’s $1.3bn IMF bailout to test how China handles defaults

•   FT: Oil industry condemns first US fee on greenhouse gases

•   Bloomberg: What Will the Jobs Report Show? Six Wall Street Traders Try to Predict the Future

•   Bloomberg: Bostic Says Fed Has ‘Work to Do’ With Inflation Long Way From 2%

•   Bloomberg: Cost of Growing Food in US Is Set to Rise By Most Ever in 2022

•   Bloomberg: Germany Turns More Pessimistic on Russian Gas This Winter

•   Bloomberg: UK Is Already in the Middle of a Recession, BCC Says

•   Bloomberg: UK Households Facing Biggest Living Standards Shock in a Century

•   Bloomberg: Putin Brings China and India to Russia for War Games Defying US

•   Bloomberg: Russia Mulls Big Purchases of ‘Friendly’ FX to Stem Ruble’s Rise

•   Bloomberg: India Is New Major Player in Russian Oil Market Once Dominated by China

•   Bloomberg: OPEC-Watchers Expect Steady Output as Oil Outlook Tightens

•   Bloomberg: Steel Price Hikes to Impact Japan’s Manufacturers as Costs Surge

•   Bloomberg: Shipping Routes Shift East as US Retailers Skirt West Coast Snarls

•   Bloomberg: Broadcom Gives Strong Forecast, Evading the Chip Slump for Now

•   Bloomberg: EU Wants Telcos to Prove Netflix, YouTube Should Pay for Traffic

•   Bloomberg: China IPhone Assembler Accused of Secretly Acquiring Taiwan Tech

•   Bloomberg: Power Crisis Means Japan Remains Reliant on Old Coal Plants

•   Bloomberg: The Next Big Battery Material Squeeze Is Old Batteries

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Europe Is Living Through Its Worst Heat Wave Since the Renaissance

•   Reuters: U.S. labor leader wants to organize 1 million new workers over next decade

•   Reuters: India's Q1 growth may not deter RBI from raising rates -analysts

•   Reuters: Analysis: New U.S. rules on EV subsidies slam Hyundai, Kia's dreams

•   AP: EXPLAINER: Why is China so angry over UN report on Xinjiang?

•   CNBC: Job growth, investments in manufacturing sector tied to White House economic plan, Biden says

•   CNBC: Europe’s evaporating rivers wreak havoc for food and energy production ahead of winter

•   CNBC: Some market players are starting to fear a major policy error from a central bank

•   CNBC: The world’s biggest offshore wind farm is now fully operational

•   MarketWatch: What does Friday’s jobs report mean for the market? ‘Too hot’ and stocks could tumble, says market pro

•   Fox Business: Inflation drives voters to the polls in November

•   SCMP: China pledges greater economic support ahead of Party Congress, firms ‘facing more difficulties’ than 2020

•   SCMP: China’s population lag, not a weaker yuan, set to be key as it battles younger Asian peers for investment

•   SCMP: US climate bill still falls short of China’s clean energy investment, says Beijing envoy

•   SCMP: Xpeng, Li Auto and Nio report woeful August sales as Chinese EV makers face weakening demand for big-ticket items

•   SCMP: Why Taiwan suddenly needs 400,000 foreign workers for critical sectors, including hi-tech

•   Nikkei Asia: Superstrong dollar threatens debt crisis across emerging economies

•   Nikkei Asia: Mitsubishi Heavy rolls out driverless forklifts in automation race

•   Economic Times: Goldman cuts India's growth estimate; Morgan Stanley sees downside risks

•   Economic Times: India's GDP to slow from 8.3% in 2021 to 7.7% in 2022: Moody's

•   매경(P1): "애플은 슈퍼갑, 수수료 33% 알았지만 침묵"…갑질에 떠는 개발자

•   매경: '애플 환율'이 뭐길래…수수료 3500억 더 떼갈 동안 깜깜

•   매경: 구글, 한국에 결제회사 만들어 대응…애플은 별도 조직없이 '모르쇠' 일관

•   매경: 바빠진 방통위, 애플 위법여부 들여다본다

•   매경(P1): 與野 종부세 완화안 '반쪽 합의'…일시2주택 구제, 11억기준 유지

•   매경: 한덕수 만난 이재명의 돌직구…"대기업 세금 왜 깎나, 총리 생각이 그렇냐"

•   매경: "美, 전기차보조금 차별문제…NSC 차원에서 검토 약속해"

•   매경: 일본인들 "윤석열 좋아요"…호감도 높은 이유는

•   매경: "호감도 상승한 지금…韓日정부 공급망·무역·안보 손잡을 기회"

•   매경: LNG 수급 차질땐…정부, 석탄발전 확대 검토

•   매경: 국민경제자문위 부의장에 이인호, 과학기술자문위엔 이우일 내정

•   매경: 작심발언 쏟아진 중대법 토론회…中企 "고용부는 왜 책임 안지나"

•   매경: 정부, 産銀 이전 재촉에…전문가 "정치보다 비용 따져야"

•   매경: 서울대·매경·LG경영硏, 7일 '미래산업포럼' 개최

•   매경: 보폭 넓히는 이재용…부산 엑스포 유치에 대통령 특사 나선다

•   매경: 월급 무섭게 올리더니…카카오 하반기 공채 줄인다

•   매경: 너무 많이 지었나…'인천의 강남' 송도 집값 수억씩 떨어진다

•   매경: "50년前 도입된 개발제한구역…확 뜯어고쳐야"

•   매경: 서울시, 녹지공원 확대하고 도심 높이 규제 완화한다

•   매경: 경영난 택시회사, 최저임금 소송에 결국 폐업까지

•   한경(P1): 타다 막더니…혁신 멈춘 택시, 요금 올린다

•   한경: 타다 기사들 일자리 빼앗더니…'택시 대란'에 요금 확 올린다

•   한경(P1): 김주현 금융위원장 "자영업자 부채 탕감 失보다 得이 더 크다"

•   한경: 김주현 금융위원장 "전업주의 등 금융산업 칸막이 규제 완화"

•   한경: 관료에 론스타 구상권 청구?…'제2 변양호 신드롬' 우려

•   한경: 한동훈 "2800억 배상 판정 취소, 충분히 승산 있다"

•   한경: "한국산 전기차 세제 차별…美 인플레 감축법 우려"

•   한경: 한국 전기차 불이익 알고도…'美 인플레감축법' 바라만 본 정부

•   한경: 정부, 천연가스 수급 매주 점검

•   한경: 규제 풀었더니…'바이오플라스틱 1조 투자' 길 열렸다

•   한경: 국민연금 이사장에 김태현, 윤석열 정부 연금개혁 속도 붙나

•   한경: 여야, 월세 세액공제율 최대 15% 상향 '한목소리'

•   한경: "○○ 투자사 △△ 심사역 있잖아. □□ 회장 아들이래" [긱스]

•   한경: 저축銀 건전성 '빨간불'…부실대출 40% 늘어

•   한경: 금융위 신임 상임위원에 권대영 금융정책국장 임명

•   한경: 저축은행, 예금금리 年4% '눈앞'

•   한경: 은행권, 예대금리차 줄이기 총력

•   한경: 주식 소수점거래, 이달 시행 물건너가나

•   한경: 국가 신용등급과 같아진 삼성전자

•   한경: 강남·서초구 신고가 거래 98% 실종

•   한경: 정부 시멘트값 중재…'레미콘 셧다운' 막을까

•   한경: 건설현장도 멈추나…민노총 건설노조, 전국 동시다발 집회

•   서경(P1): 이재용, 대통령특사로 유럽行…5대그룹 총수들 해외 총출동

•   서경: [단독]與, 고등교육회계법안 내놓는다…교부금 수술 본격화

•   서경: [단독] 자산 재평가액만 7조…체질개선 없는 한전 자구안

•   서경: 공정위 사건처리 평균 440일…불확실성에 떠는 기업

•   서경: 금융당국, 불법 대부업에 칼 뺀다…적발땐 형사처벌

•   서경: “세입자 못 구해” 전국 아우성…역전세난 경고 현실화됐다

•   서경: 우크라전쟁·中 항만봉쇄 2연타 국내 컨테이너 물동량 '초비상'

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 서류만 5개… 결국 복지 신청 포기했다

•   조선: “물려받은 만큼 낸다” 기재부, 유산취득세 연구용역 착수

•   조선: 국내 ‘초알짜’ 기업… HMM·네이버 등 총 29곳

•   조선: [WEEKLY BIZ] 코로나 공포 사라지는 사이에 재고가 쌓였다

•   조선: 인플레 둔감했던 우유 너마저… ‘밀크플레이션’ 덮친다

•   조선비즈: [BOK이슈] ‘매파’ 파월에 한은도 금리인상 잰걸음…시장에선 ‘오락가락’ 비판도

•   조선비즈: 손질 필요하지만 효과는 있었던 중대재해법… 건설 사망사고 줄었다

•   조선비즈: 공매도잔고, 반년 전 수준으로 줄어…주가엔 별 효과 없었다

•   조선비즈: 삼성 OLED TV 출시 망설이는 이유… OLED 패널 LCD보다 5배 비싸

•   조선비즈: 車 기업 임단협, 무분규 마무리 수순… 인력 감축 논의는 빠져

•   인베스트조선: 채권시장 영향력 커진 개인투자자…10兆 순매수에 기관도 따라간다

•   인베스트조선: 일진머티리얼즈 매각, 3조에 팔려도 허재명 사장 세금만 8400억

•   중앙: [단독] “하나銀만 쟁점? 론스타 ‘HSBC 무산 6조’ 통째 노렸다”

•   중앙: 배민은 안 올렸다는데 치솟는 배달비 왜

•   동아: 1주택 재산세 4.9% 줄어 가구당 11만6000원 절감

•   문화: 노동시장개혁 앞두고 이해당사자 심층조사

•   한국(P1): 론스타가 끝이 아니다... 엘리엇·메이슨 소송도 위험하다

•   한국(P1): 추석 물가 비상... 주요 작물 4,000톤 추가 공급

•   한국: [단독] 반도체 수급 좋아진다더니 더 늘어난 현대차 신차 대기…"싼타페 HEV 20개월"

•   서울(P1): 집주인, 전세계약 직후 매매·대출 금지

•   세계: [단독] 원자력 이해도 높이려? 총리실 합류한 원안위 사무관

•   머니투데이(P1): "반도체 용수 갈등 막는다"...與, 인프라 설치 책임 국가에 둔다

•   머니투데이: "대리점에 갑질했나"…공정위, LG생활건강·아모레퍼시픽 조사

•   헤럴드경제(P1): “공정거래법상 일부 형벌규정 행정제재로 전환을”

•   헤럴드경제: 국제곡물 가격은 뚝·뚝...국내식품 가격은 줄인상, 왜?

•   헤럴드경제: 한기정 “납품단가 연동제 공감하나...충분한 논의 거친 후 법제화 검토”

•   아시아경제: 여전채 금리, 4% 훌쩍 넘어 5%대 임박...카드사 '비상'

•   디지털타임스: 세계는 `칩4` 반도체 전쟁 중인데… `반도체특별법` 상정 무산

•   이데일리: 강달러 현상 지속…향수·화장품에 담배까지 면세점이 더 비싸

•   이데일리: 고금리 계약도 해지율 3%…“환매요구권 논의 시작할 때”

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 8만5696명 확진…어제보다 5719명 많아

•   연합: 삼성 "폴더블 신작 유럽 출하량 전작의 2배…초기 판매 신기록"

•   연합: 삼성전자, 조만간 RE100 가입 선언할 듯…한종희 "곧 전략 발표"

•   뉴스1: [단독]’서울인데’…새 아파트 청약 계약자 달랑 1명 '굴욕'

•   KBS: [단독] 현대차 들어올 조지아주 의원, “전기차법 수정돼야…한국에 불이익은 잘못”

•   전자신문(P1): 3년 만에 돌아온 IFA… 유럽 가전시장 공략

•   전자신문(P1): 中 반도체 EDA툴 저가 공세 '美 지배력 흔들기'

•   전자신문: 삼성D, 아이폰14에 역대 최대 패널 공급

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Jean Pisani-Ferry): Will Russia or the West Win the Economic and Financial Battle?

•   Project Syndicate(Kenneth Rogoff): Will the Dollar’s Surge End in Whiplash?

•   Project Syndicate(Anders Åslund): The Failure of European Energy Policy

•   Project Syndicate(Kaushik Basu): The Fed Is Overreacting

•   FT(Martin Wolf): The energy crisis and the massive international wealth transfer

•   FT(Leo Lewis): China is on a mission to ensure its food security

•   FT(John Thornhill): The metaverse is evolving from fiction into fact

•   FT(Ian Harnett): Why housing is the key to the next Fed pivot

•   FT(Lex): Nvidia: metaverse chipmaker gets reality check

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): No Fun in the California Sun

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Labor Shortage Stalls Small Business Hiring

•   WSJ(Vernon Bogdanor): Why Liz Truss Will Be the U.K.’s Next Prime Minister

•   WSJ(Judy Shelton): Biden and Powell Are at Odds on Inflation

•   WP(Josh Rogin): The U.N. finally calls out China’s atrocities. So where’s U.S. action?

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): The Fed's Messaging Needs an Upgrade

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): China, Turkey and the World Must Lean On Putin to Avert Nuclear Disaster

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): More to Life Than Inflation? Indonesia Is Just Asking

•   Bloomberg(Mihir Sharma): India May Limit Rice Exports. Bad Idea.

•   Bloomberg(Julian Lee): Oil Demand Worries Dominate Markets: Elements by Julian Lee

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): China, Russia and Iran Are Slowly Ganging Up on the US

•   Bloomberg(Leonid Bershidsky): Putin Is Now Russia’s Deluder-in-Chief

•   Bloomberg(Gearoid Reidy): The Contest for Missiles in Asia’s Danger Zone, With China, North Korea Threats

•   Fox News(Chuck DeVore): China can take three lessons from Russia’s faltering war with Ukraine for its face-off with Taiwan

•   매경(사설): 개발자 울리는 애플 수수료 횡포 공정위가 철저히 조사해야

•   한경(사설): 종부세 완화 발목 잡는 민주당, '상식의 정치' 포기했나

•   서경(유경준): 대한민국은 평등한 국가인가, 불평등한 국가인가?

•   서경(박효정): 공정위원장 임명, 더 이상 미뤄선 안 된다

•   조선(사설): 反시장적 규제, 포퓰리즘으로 가득 찬 민주 ‘민생 법안’

•   문화(사설): ‘론스타 배상’ 취소 신청, 근거 충분하고 의미도 있다

•   헤럴드경제(맹성규): 반복되는 기관장 사퇴압박 논란, 이젠 끝내야

•   이데일리(사설): '민생' 올인 외친 野, 첫 발부터 규제입법에만 몰두하나