Global Economic Monitor 220923

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Yen spikes after Japan intervention, stocks slump

※   Japan intervenes after dollar/yen breaks 145

※   Central bank bonanza as UK, Swiss, Norway hike

※   Stocks slump on Wall Street, in Europe, Asia

※   Bond yields rise after Fed rate hike

•   US: A Day After Fed Raises Rates, Reverse Repos Hit New Record

•   Japan: Japan Jumps Into Market to Buy Yen for First Time in 24 Years

※   Intervention by Tokyo follows plunge in its currency triggered by Fed’s rate increases

•   Metals: Aluminium rebounds on weaker dollar, China demand hopes

•   Grains: Wheat to 2-month high on Ukraine worries; corn firm, soy weak

•   한국: '매파' 연준에 코스피 2,330선으로 후퇴…환율 1,410원 육박

•   한국: 'FOMC 쇼크'…신저가 440개 쏟아졌다

•   한국: 코피 터지는 코스피…전문가 "당분간 현금비중 확대를"

•   한국: 채권금리 11년7개월만에 최고치…주담대 더 뛴다

•   한국: 장단기 금리 올 첫 역전…긴축공포에 격차 커질듯

[Indicators]

•   US Q2 Current account: U.S. current account deficit shrinks in second quarter

•   US Aug. Leading economic index: U.S. leading indicator falls for sixth consecutive month in August

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: Jobless Claims Rose Slightly Last Week but Remain Close to Prepandemic Average

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates(Freddie Mac): Mortgage Rates Rise for Fifth Week in a Row, Hitting 6.29%

•   Eurozone Sep. Consumer confidence: Euro-Zone Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low on Energy Woes

•   UK Benchmark rate: Bank of England lifts interest rates by 0.5 percentage points

※   BoE: Bank Rate increased to 2.25% - September 2022

※   FT: Bank of England prepares for tug of war with Treasury

•   Japan Benchmark rate: Bank of Japan Maintains Ultralow Interest Rates

•   Indonesia Benchmark rate: Indonesia’s Central Bank Raises Rates Again to Tamp Down Inflation

•   Turkey Benchmark rate: Turkey’s central bank cuts rates despite rampant inflation

•   한국 2분기 건설공사 계약액: 2분기 건설계약액 82.7조 … 전년比 8.8%↑

•   한국 7월 원화대출 연체율: 은행, 7월 원화대출 연체율 0.22%…전월보다 0.02%p 상승

•   한국 8월 PPI: 8월 생산자물가, 전달 대비 0.3%↓…1년 10개월 만에 하락

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 전국 아파트값 역대 최대 낙폭... 서울도 17주 연속 하락

•   한국 주간 아파트 수급동향(부동산원): '빅스텝 공포 엄습'…서울 아파트 매매수급지수 80선 무너져

[Lawmakers & Policies]

•   국회: "포퓰리즘 안돼" "초부자 감세 저지"…예산정국 '진흙탕' 예고

•   국민의힘: [단독]與규제개혁추진단 공식 발족…중소기업·의료 등 5개 분야 타파

•   정무위: [단독]5대 금융지주 회장들 국정감사 기간에 미국 간다

•   정무위: [단독] 민주당 정무위, 5대 은행장 국감 증인 추진

•   정무위: [단독]송치형 두나무 회장, 국정감사 증인으로 선다

•   심상정: [탐사K/론스타ISDS]⑨ 먹튀·속튀 아니고 “짜튀”…“국정조사해야”

•   이용우: 주식매수청구가격 구체화 법안 추진…지배구조개편 기업 부담 가중할 듯

•   고상근: '도 넘은' 은행규제 법안…당국마저 반대

•   강민국: [단독] 대학 등록금 신용카드 납부는 ‘그림의 떡’… 대학 10곳 중 7곳 거부

•   윤창현: 금감원, 5년간 40명 징계…차명거래·성희롱 적발

•   박성준: 하도급업체 기술탈취 과징금 10억 불과

•   김영식: [단독] 가동 두달 앞둔 신한울, 또 발목잡는 원안위

•   송석준: [단독]스타벅스, 다음달부터 품절메뉴 카톡 기프티콘 100% 환불

•   용혜인: [단독]정유사에도 횡재세 부과…EU 인사 초청해 국회 토론회 연다

•   이정문: [단독]'부실' 기업부설연구소 2만곳… 깎아준 세금 '2839억'

•   임이자: [단독]삼성·SK·LG…기업인 26명 국감 증인 신청한 與 간사

•   윤두현: [단독] 文정부 脫원전 5년간 한수원 그만둔 인력 2배 늘었다

•   남인순: [단독] 낡은 집 한 채 탓 탈락도…기초수급 신청자 45% 고배

•   대통령실: 최상목 경제수석 "한·미 금융안정 논의에 통화스와프 포함"

•   금융위: 금융위원장 "ESG공시제도 개편 구체화"

•   금융위: 안심전환대출 흥행 실패...금융위, 홍보만 열중

•   금융위: 금융위, 제약·바이오 회계처리 관행 손 본다...“임상 승인 전 지출도 자산화 가능”

•   금감원: 수상한 외화송금 10조…털어보니 1조 더 나와

•   금감원, 산은: 금감원장이 선택한 은행은? 산업은행 회장이 담은 주식은?

•   금융규제혁신회의: 민간이 이끄는 규제혁신회의… 尹 ‘금융계 BTS 육성’ 성공할까

•   한은: 이창용 "조건 많이 바뀌었다"… 내달 `빅 스텝` 시사

•   산은: “잠재부실 터질라”…국내외 PF 점검 나선 산업은행

•   공정위: 한기정 "플랫폼 자율규제가 효과적"

•   공정위: [단독] '로톡 사건' 다음달 결론… 공정위, 변협 강력 제재하나

•   기재부: 한국 경제 짓누르는 미국발 '3고'... 당장 묘수 없는 정부 "길게 보겠다"

•   기재부: [단독] 전기료도 '미수금' 도입, 상위 0.4% 사용자들에게 돈 더 받는다

•   산업부: 이창양 "韓 전기차 차별, 한미 경제협력에 부정적"

•   산업부: 북미 7개 기업, 韓 반도체·전기차 1조6천억 투자

•   한전: [단독] 한전, 사채 발행 한도 2배→8배 검토…법 개정 못하면 채무불이행 위기

•   국토부: 1주택 장기 보유자 재건축 부담금 낮아진다

•   고용부: 노동장관 "노란봉투법, 위헌논란 소지…불법행위 면죄부 우려"

•   환경부: [단독] 소비자가 못 찾은 보증금 450억원…환경부는 적금 들고 펀드 투자

•   농식품부: 정부 "남는 쌀 의무 매입은 과잉생산 부추길 것"

•   국민연금: [단독] 국민연금, SK온 투자 검토…'2조원' 프리IPO 급진전

•   감염병자문위: 실외 마스크 완전 벗는다

•   서울시: 서울시 “반값아파트 차익 보장”… 국토부는 “신중”

•   서울시: 서울시 "이주비 등 지원 리모델링 활성화"

•   부산시: ‘산은 특공’에 ‘규제 해제’까지… 주목받는 부산 문현 1구역

[News]

•   WSJ: Russians Fear a Wider Call-Up After Putin Orders Reservists to Mobilize

※   Thousands of men have been called up across Russia as Kremlin kicks off its mobilization drive for Ukraine war

•   WSJ: Ukraine Prisoner Exchange Sparks Backlash in Russia

•   WSJ: Vladimir Putin’s Nuclear Threats Work, but Using the Weapons Probably Wouldn’t

•   WSJ: Alleged Russian War Crimes in Ukraine Are Focus of U.S., Allies at U.N.

•   WSJ: Russia’s Chief Diplomat Gets Chilly U.N. Reception, from Diverted Planes to Shrugs and Yawns

•   WSJ: Middle-Income Households Feel Bigger Pinch From Inflation, Report Finds

※   CBO: How Inflation Has Affected Households at Different Income Levels Since 2019

•   WSJ: After Years of Low Mortgage Rates, Home Sellers Are Scarce

•   WSJ: China Will Benefit From Cheap Russian Gas—Eventually

•   WSJ: Iran Restricts Internet Access as Women’s Rights Protests Spread

•   WSJ: The Market Still Isn’t Priced for a Proper Recession

•   WSJ: Markets Brace for Hard Landing as Fed Delivers Sobering Message

•   WSJ: Does the U.K. Really Depend on the Kindness of Strangers?

•   WSJ: America Has Lost Its Oil Buffer

•   WSJ: FedEx to Raise Shipping Rates by 6.9% as It Combats Slowdown

•   WSJ: Amazon Routinely Hired Dangerous Trucking Companies, With Deadly Consequences

•   WSJ: Tesla Recalls Nearly 1.1 Million Cars Over Window Pinching Concerns

•   WSJ: Ford Puts Focus on Electric-Vehicles Market With Management Changes

•   WSJ: Amazon, Microsoft, Google Face Cloud-Services Examination in U.K.

•   WSJ: U.S.-China Tensions Fuel Outflow of Chinese Scientists From U.S. Universities

•   NYT: World Bank Leader, Accused of Climate Denial, Offers a New Response

•   NYT: FTC Says Jeff Bezos, Others at Amazon Must Testify in Agency’s Probe

•   WP: Inside crypto’s house of cards

•   FT: Europe’s dark, expensive winter

•   FT: Energy crunch threatens to shatter European unity, warns IEA boss

•   FT: EU casts doubt on ability to intervene in energy derivatives markets

•   FT: Italy’s right puts on united front in final days of election campaign

•   FT: What an Italy led by the far-right might mean for Europe

•   FT: Energy Crisis Empowers Europe’s Populists Harnessing Anger Over War Impact

•   FT: Concerns raised over UK plans to review ‘retained’ EU law

•   FT: Washington’s latest energy drama: ‘Permitting reform’

•   FT: Why the weak yen no longer means what it once did for Japan Inc

•   FT: Turkish opposition’s alliance against Erdoğan battles rifts

•   FT: Credit Suisse weighs splitting investment bank into three

•   Bloomberg: Central Bank Rate Hikes Are Far From Over

•   Bloomberg: WHO Says Pandemic Isn’t Done After Biden Called It ‘Over’ in US

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s New Normal for Pace of Tightening May Be Hard to Escape

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Sees Path for Cooler Prices Without Jump in Jobless Rate

•   Bloomberg: Now Hiring: US Seeks Economist to Scrutinize Sanction Spillovers

•   Bloomberg: EU Rushes to Agree on an Oil Price Cap After Putin’s Threats

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Schnabel Sees Inflation Pressure in ‘All Parts’ of Economy

•   Bloomberg: UK Fiscal Stimulus Will Be ‘Difficult’ for BOE, Haskel Says

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Cuts China 2023 Growth Forecast as Covid Zero Stays

•   Bloomberg: Taiwanese Independence Is a Charging Rhino That Must Be Stopped, China Says

•   Bloomberg: Japan Has a Pile of Dollars It Can Tap Before Selling Treasuries

•   Bloomberg: Jokowi’s Options for Retaining Power After Indonesia Term Ends

•   Bloomberg: The Era of Inflation Has Ended — for Asset Prices on Wall Street

•   Bloomberg: It’s Every Nation for Itself as Dollar Batters Global Currencies

•   Bloomberg: A Great Copper Squeeze Is Coming for the Global Economy

•   Bloomberg: Russia Sets Out How Much It’s Going to Cut Gas Flow Through 2025

•   Bloomberg: Energy Crunch Crimping Europe Hurts Demand for Commodity Ships

•   Bloomberg: How ‘Chip War’ Puts Nations In Technology Arms Race

•   Bloomberg: CATL, Contemporary Amperex Tech, may build a third EV battery plant in Europe

•   Bloomberg: Meta Sued for Skirting Apple Privacy Rules to Snoop on Users

•   Bloomberg: EU Set to Pave Way for 565 Billion Euro Overhaul of Electricity Grid

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Price Cap on Russian Oil Risks Crisis It’s Meant to Prevent

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Wall Street Culls Signal Worker’s Job Market Is Over

•   Reuters: Why Amazon may have the upper hand in antitrust suits

•   Reuters: Toyota's October vehicle output to be weighed down by chip shortage

•   Reuters: Analysis: Race to rein in strong dollar is on after Japan intervenes

•   Reuters: Analysis: As Putin escalates Ukraine war, China stands awkwardly by him

•   Reuters: Analysis: No relief for bruised markets as Fed signals higher rates for longer

•   Reuters: Analysis: Amid tense Brazil election, Petrobras emerges as surprise market darling

•   CNBC: The U.S. and its allies are joining forces on chips. That could stop China reaching the next level

•   Center Square: Economics professor says history shows interest rate hikes won’t rescue economy

•   SCMP: China repeats call for talks to end Ukraine war after Vladimir Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons

•   SCMP: China’s shipbuilding progress threatens South Korea’s long-held tech dominance in the industry

•   SCMP: China launches new maternity, marital survey in bid to staunch population loss

•   SCMP: China’s capital conundrum: US Fed hikes and geopolitical strife add fuel to yuan exodus

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan to allow visa-free individual tourists from Oct. 11

•   Nikkei Asia: SoftBank's Son faces difficult quest to lift Arm valuation

•   Nikkei Asia: Huawei dives into chip production to battle U.S. clampdown

•   Nikkei Asia: Huawei's next move and China's chip worker conundrum

•   Economic Times: India Inc expects another 35-50 basis points policy rate hike by RBI

•   Economic Times: Five big positives that work for India as advanced economies stare at recession

•   매경(P1): "S 공포 18개월간 세계 휩쓸것"…헤지펀드 큰손의 경고 [세지포]

•   매경: "전세계 긴축기조 겨우 절반 지나…정치갈등이 경제위기 더 키워"

•   매경: "美연준 11월도 자이언트스텝…내년까지 금리 안내릴것"

•   매경: 美中 충돌위기 고조…대만이 갈등의 중심

•   매경: "韓 지역주의, 美 인종주의만큼 심각"…후쿠야마 경고 [세지포]

•   매경: 美 주가 10% 더 내리면 투자적기…자산의 5~10%는 金으로 담아라

•   매경: "우크라이나 전쟁 지켜본 북한…핵무기 보유의지 더 강해질것"

•   매경: "세계 에너지 수요 급증…해법은 '24시간 친환경 가동' SMR"

•   매경: 서울~인천공항 '하늘길'로 18분…택시요금으로 누린다 [세지포]

•   매경(P1): 尹 "인플레법 우려" 바이든 "잘 알고 있다"

•   매경: 막혔던 한일관계 물꼬 튼 건 성과…'강제징용' 언급 없어 한계

•   매경(P1): 원화값 급락, 기업들 해외투자 비상…최태원 "2030년까지 20조 추가부담"

•   매경: "약속 깰 수도 없고"…美투자 발표한 4대그룹 총수의 속앓이

•   매경: "美 인플레법 뒤통수 맞았다 생각 말아야" 최태원 말한 속내는

•   매경: 손정의 "삼성과 ARM 전략적 제휴 논의"…지분매각 협상 공식화

•   한경(P1): "외국車 차별 IRA, 오히려 미국에 毒 될 것"

•   한경: 서울 금융경쟁력 11위…시카고·도쿄 제쳤다

※   서울시: 서울시, 국제금융경쟁력 3년 연속 상승세...미래부상 가능성 1위, 종합 11위

•   서경: 손성원 로욜라메리마운트대 석좌교수 "긴축에 기업 재고 눈덩이…美, 내년 하반기 침체 빠질것"

•   서경: "美긴축, 이제 6부능선…추가 하락 가능성 열어둬야"

•   조선(P1): 한국, 北인권결의안 공동제안국 복귀

•   조선: 고환율에… 해외매출 비중 높은 식품·의류업체들은 반색

•   조선: “돈줄 말라붙어”… 중기·스타트업 더 힘들다

•   조선: “가뜩이나 불황인데…” 주요 제조업 덮치는 연쇄파업

•   조선비즈: 한경연 “한미 금리역전… 환율 1434원까지 갈 수도”

•   조선비즈: 대만이 장악한 반도체 기판 시장… 삼성·LG, 兆단위 투자로 맹추격

•   중앙: 7개월째 줄어든 통화량 증가율, 증시 반등 당분간 힘들 듯

•   JTBC: [단독] 대책도 없이…'탈석탄' 속 위기의 2만여 노동자

•   문화(P1): 민간부채, GDP의 2.2배… 자영업자 대출 1000兆 육박

※   한은: 「금융안정 상황」(2022년 9월)

•   국민: 규제 문턱 높은 금융혁신… “네거티브 방식으로 정책 전환해야”

•   서울: 클릭하면 직원 집주소가 줄줄… 무방비 개인정보 ‘스토킹 표적’

•   서울: 우리銀 직원 횡령액 93억 더 늘어… 檢, 법원에 변론 재개 요청

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): "남양유업 일가 주식 한앤코에 양도하라"

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "가상자산, 자본시장 규제체계 따라야"

※   자본시장연구원: 디지털자산법안의 주요 쟁점 및 입법 방향

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 정부-지자체 보조금 엇박자… 4분기 전기차 대란 오나

•   디지털타임스: 둔촌주공, 공사비 1조1000억 올렸지만… 분양가에 반영못해 속앓이

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 2만8267명 확진…어제보다 3천여명 줄어

•   연합: "4분기 D램 가격 13∼18% 떨어진다"…하락 폭 더 가팔라질 듯

•   연합: "서울 주택가격 거품이 38%…서초구는 50% 넘어"

•   아주경제: [단독] 韓 기업 IRA 대관활동에도···美 토종기업 로비에 두손 들어

•   뉴데일리: [단독] 文정부 태양광에…연간 車 1만7천대 이산화탄소 흡수 기능 사라져

•   아시아투데이: [단독] 서울시, ‘택시 월급제’ 용역 결과 이르면 이달 말 발표

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Catherine McKenna): Making Net-Zero Pledges Count

•   Project Syndicate(Javier Solana): The Global Necessity of American Democracy

•   Project Syndicate(Mark Cliff): The Sting of Climate Risk Is in the Tails

•   FT(Editorial Board): The EU should press Hungary hard on rule of law

•   FT(Gillian Tett): Rate rises threaten to reverse America’s post-Covid equality gains

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): How I learnt to stop worrying about public debt and inflation

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): From Fed pivot to Fed pause

•   FT(John Thornhill): The five things the tech bubble got right

•   FT(Jemima Kelly): Don’t believe the ‘maximalists’: bitcoin can’t be separated from crypto

•   FT(Rachel Reeves): Trickle-down economics is no substitute for a growth plan

•   FT(Claire Jones): A global backlash is brewing against the Fed

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Fed’s March Upward

•   WSJ(Michael S. Derby): Putting a Price Tag on the Pain Powell Sees as Unavoidable

•   NYT(Marlene Laruelle): Putin Is in Trouble

•   WP(Megan McArdle): The Fed’s latest rate hike shows it isn’t messing around

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): G-7’s Russian Oil Price Cap Is the Least Bad Option for Ukraine

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): Japan’s Intervention Underlines Its Interest-Rate Isolation

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Think of Powell as Volcker's Wannabe Second Coming

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): The Bank of England Is Right to Take a Softly, Softly Approach on Rates

•   Bloomberg(Aaron Brown): Personal Wealth: Housing Market's P/E Ratio Is in the Danger Zone

•   Bloomberg(Anjani Trivedi): Why Are EVs Still So Expensive? Blame the Makers

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): Ukraine and the US Should Take Putin's Nuclear Threat Seriously

•   Bloomberg(Richard Cookson): Three Reasons Coordinated Dollar Intervention Is Unlikely

•   Fox News(Rebecca Grant): The end is near for Putin's war against Ukraine

•   헤럴드경제(박일한): 집값 폭락의 징조라는 애매한 사실들