Global Economic Monitor 220916

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: U.S. stocks slip while yields rise, Fed in focus

※   Fed looms over broader markets, dollar rises

※   Oil tumbles on demand concerns, U.S. rail strike averted

※   Treasury yields climb while oil gold tumbles

•   China: China’s Yuan Breaks Key Level Against Dollar

•   Natural gas: European Gas Swings as Traders Weigh Efficacy of EU Intervention

•   Metals: Aluminium rises, but other metals slip on recession fears

•   Grains: Wheat falls from two-month high as U.S. averts rail shutdown

•   한국: 코스피 이틀째 하락, 2,400선 턱걸이…환율 장중 1,400원 육박

•   한국: '환율 1400원' 브레이크 건 정부

•   한국: 채권시장發 경기침체 경고 커진다... 3년물·10년물까지 금리역전 조짐

[Indicators]

•   US Jul. Business inventories: U.S. business inventories increase, but pace slowing

•   US Aug. Retail sales: U.S. Retail Sales Rose 0.3% in August, Showing Resilience in Face of Inflation

※   Shoppers spent more on vehicles, groceries and clothing as gasoline prices eased

※   WSJ: Consumer Spending May Be Better Than It Looks

•   US Aug. Industrial production: US Manufacturing Output Increases for a Second-Straight Month

•   US Aug. Export·Import prices: US Import Prices Slid in August, Offering Some Inflation Relief

•   US Sep. Empire State manufacturing index, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Index: Empire State, Philly Fed indexes show contractions in activity in September

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates(Freddie Mac): Mortgage Rates Top 6% for the First Time Since the 2008 Financial Crisis

※   WSJ: Rising Mortgage Rates Complicate Decision on Buying Versus Renting

•   Eurozone Jul. Balance of trade: Eurozone Posts Another Trade Deficit in July, Reflecting High Energy Costs

•   Germany Aug. PPI: German wholesale prices rise slightly in August

•   UK Aug. Consumer confidence: UK Consumer Confidence Drop Feeds Concern About House Prices

•   China Policy rate: China’s Central Bank Keeps Key Policy Rate Unchanged

•   Japan Aug. Balance of trade: Japan posts record trade deficit in August as energy imports soar

•   India Aug. Employment: India’s labour market shrunk by 2.1 million in August on the back of decline in salaried jobs: CMIE

•   Brazil Jul. Economic activity: Brazil's economic activity index beats forecast with 1.2% growth in July

•   Indonesia Aug. Balance of trade: Indonesia’s Exports Beat Estimates to Hit New High on Coal Surge

•   China-US shipping ratesChina-US shipping rates tumble due to ‘plummeting’ demand despite typhoon disruptions

•   Argentina Benchmark rate: Argentina to Hike Interest Rates to 75% as Inflation Nears 100%

•   한국 2021년 공공부문 계정: 한전 등 비금융공기업 적자만 21조 [빚더미 오른 재정]

•   한국 7월 재정수지: 경기 침체 신호탄 '쌍둥이 적자' 눈앞

•   한국 8월 수출입물가: 8월 수입물가지수 0.9%↓…유가 약세에 두달 연속 하락

•   한국 8월 수출입 운송비용: 美서부 가는 해상 수출 운송비 1년 전보다 32% 상승

•   한국 8월 코픽스: ‘영끌족 비명 커졌다’...코픽스 3%대 초근접

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): "집 안사요" 부동산심리 역대급 한파

•   한국 주간 아파트 수급동향(부동산원): 서울 아파트 '역대급 거래 절벽'에 매매 수급지수 19주째 하락

[Lawmakers & Policies]

•   국회: 국감 3주 앞인데... 6개 상임위, 작년 국감보고서 채택도 안 했다

•   민주당: 민생 외친 민주…'파업조장법' 개정안 정의당과 공동발의

•   민주당: "쪽지예산 조장" "심의나 제대로" 질타에도…민주당, 예산완박 본격 시동

•   민주당: 야당 ‘이재명 체제’ 첫 법안 단독처리

•   민주당: [단독] 연금개혁 한다면서 '더 내고 덜 받는' 방식 반대하는 野

•   강병원: 담합 매출 14.9조인데 과징금 5000억뿐

•   강병원: 빚 안 갚고 해외로 이민 '먹튀' 채무액 4502억원…회수율은 고작 1%

•   이양수: [단독] 21년 만에… 수협, 1조원 규모 ‘묶인 돈’ 풀리나

•   정성호: [단독] 세금 피해 ‘빌린 돈’ 눈가림... 1020 편법증여 의심 빚 급증

•   안병길: [단독]文정부 태양광에 뭉텅뭉텅…나무 265만그루 잘려나갔다

•   대통령실: [단독]대통령실 “방통위-여가부, 세종시 이전 추진”

•   대통령실: 尹정부, 최약층 위주로 '누더기 복지' 대수술…"정치복지 개선"

•   금융위: [단독]코로나대출 만기 연장 가닥…중소기업 등 일부만 연장 검토

•   금융위: [단독] 사실 아니라더니…금융위, '알짜' 넘길 시나리오 확인

•   금융위: [단독] 금융위 직원 주식투자, 5년새 4배로 늘었다

•   금융위: "코리아 디스카운트 원인은 지배주주 이익 집중"

•   금감원: 금감원 "통장 대여·판매 조심하세요"

•   금감원: 금감원, 강방천 직무정지 제재 결정

•   금감원: 이복현 금감원장 "수상한 외화 송금 10조원 넘을 수도"

•   기재부: 한전 의정부 부지 등 부동산 5000억 판다

•   기재부: [단독] 삼성·포스코…정부, 핵심소재 보유기업 지원 나선다

•   기재부: [단독] 연금·노동개혁 전담 미래경제회의 신설

•   기재부: 정부 "주식 조각투자엔 비과세"…국내 소수점거래 탄력 받을듯

•   기재부: "경윳값 1900원 간다"...다음달에도 '유가연동보조금' 받을듯

•   산업부: 文정부 '신재생 폭주' 제동…의무비율도 '확' 낮춘다

•   산업부: 사업재편 제도 시행 6년…314개 기업 재편 승인받아

•   국토부: [단독]툭하면 사업 지연…정부, 지역주택조합 손본다

•   교육부: 출산율 저하에… 2025년까지 96개大 정원 1만6000명 감축

•   행안부 등: [단독]“반지하 가구에 비상벨 설치, 침수 등 위급상황 대비”

•   감사원: 감사원 "작년 세수 추계 오류, 1400억 혈세 낭비"

[News]

•   WSJ: World Bank Warns of Global Recession Next Year if Central Banks Lift Interest Rates Too High

※   Monetary tightening aimed at reducing inflation risks worsening the current economic slowdown, the bank’s new study finds

※   World Bank: Risk of Global Recession in 2023 Rises Amid Simultaneous Rate Hikes

•   WSJ: U.S. Railroad Strike Averted as Tentative Deal Is Reached, Biden Says

※   Unions, companies reach deal to avoid first nationwide rail strike in 20 years

•   WSJ: Biden Orders Deeper Scrutiny of Foreign Investment in Tech and Supply Chains

※   A new executive order directs the panel screening foreign investment, Cfius, to look at deals in areas U.S. officials say are of interest to China

※   White House: FACT SHEET: President Biden Signs Executive Order to Ensure Robust Reviews of Evolving National Security Risks by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States

•   WSJ: Russia’s Vladimir Putin Says China’s Xi Jinping Raised Concerns on Ukraine War

※   The Russian leader said that the Kremlin would clarify its position on Ukraine, without explaining further

•   WSJ: Senate Midterm Map Shaped by Abortion and the Economy

•   WSJ: Fedspeak Cheat Sheet: What Fed Officials Said Before Their September Meeting

•   WSJ: Fed’s Terminal Rate Expected to Be Closer to 5%

•   WSJ: Serbia Asks For IMF Help Amid Bond-Market Squeeze

•   WSJ: Pakistan’s Flood Losses Deal Crushing Blow to Ailing Economy

•   WSJ: Adobe to Buy Collaboration-Software Company Figma for About $20 Billion

•   WSJ: New Data Show Broad Shift to Remote Work During Pandemic

•   WSJ: Biotech May Be the Next U.S.-China Battleground

•   NYT: Russia Damages a Dam in Ukraine, Sparking Flooding Fears

•   NYT: New Inflation Developments Are Rattling Markets and Economists. Here’s Why.

•   NYT: European Union Signals a Move Away from Wood Energy

•   WP: As Ukraine advances, Putin backs further into a corner

•   WP: Silicon Valley can’t keep track of your data

•   FT: Workers’ push to link wage rises to inflation unsettles central bankers

•   FT: Scholz pressed to send German tanks to Ukraine

•   FT: EDF warns hit to profit from nuclear outages will reach €29bn

•   FT: Public confidence in BoE’s inflation stance at record low

•   FT: Truss’s ‘cakeist’ approach to Northern Ireland

•   FT: Fortress China: Xi Jinping’s plan for economic independence

•   FT: US and EU step up pressure on Turkey over Russia sanctions

•   FT: European gas traders dare to dream prices have peaked

•   Bloomberg: US Electric-Vehicle Tax Breaks Draw Ire From Allies EU, Korea

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s 75-or-100 Choice Keeps Traders Guessing as Decision Nears

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Warns of Challenges From Rail Strike, European Economy

•   Bloomberg: Biden Pledges $50 Million for Floating Wind Turbines Off Coasts

•   Bloomberg: US Imposes New Sanctions Against Russia as War Drags On

•   Bloomberg: Putin's War Machine May Be Giving His Economy A Quiet Boost

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Makhlouf Says Raising Rates Is ‘Absolutely Necessary’

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Guindos Urges ‘Determined Action’ in Inflation Fight

•   Bloomberg: Bank of France’s Gloomy Outlook Casts Doubt on Macron’s Plans

•   Bloomberg: Germany Delays Gas Levy Mired in Dispute as Energy Crisis Looms

•   Bloomberg: Europe Prepares Blackout Plans to Head Off Winter Energy Chaos

•   Bloomberg: Liz Truss UK Economy Plan More Ted Heath Than Margaret Thatcher: Norman Lamont

•   Bloomberg: China Shuts Down Videos of WHO Saying End of Pandemic in Sight

•   Bloomberg: China Mulling U-Turn for More Fuel Exports to Revive Growth

•   Bloomberg: Modi’s Outreach to Putin Risks Putting India in US Crosshairs

•   Bloomberg: BOJ’s Kuroda Seen Sitting Tight Even After Jumbo Fed Hike

•   Bloomberg: Metal Makers Signal Grim Demand Outlook in Warning for Economy

•   Bloomberg: Russian Invasion Knocked Out 14% of Ukraine’s Grain Storage

•   Bloomberg: Carmakers Play Numbers Game in $53 Billion Self-Driving Splurge

•   Bloomberg: Chinese Battery Supplier to Xiaomi Hikes Prices as Costs Surge

•   Bloomberg: Google Android Decision Encouraging ‘Win’ for EU, Vestager Says

•   Bloomberg: Too-Low Carbon Prices Won't Stop Companies From Emitting

•   Reuters: U.S. to soon announce new $600 million arms package for Ukraine

•   Reuters: Exclusive: With a Russian nudge, Turkey and Syria step up contacts

•   Reuters: Taiwan president warns of 'volatile' challenges facing chip industry

•   Reuters: Fitch lowers India's FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7% from 7.8%

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Tesla weighs reset for China retail strategy even as sales boom

•   Reuters: Analysis: Lula unlikely to repeat Brazil state bank lending binges

•   Reuters: Analysis: European governments defy market volatility with green bond bonanza

•   AP: Biden approval rises sharply ahead of midterms: AP-NORC poll

•   CNBC: ‘The economy is braking hard’ and CEO confidence is miserable, says billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht

•   CNBC: Globalization of trade isn’t ending, despite Covid, war, inflation

•   CNBC: Charts suggest oil will bounce short term then head lower, Jim Cramer says

•   CNBC: Awash with cash’: Global shipping companies now want to fly their goods too

•   MarketWatch: Is the housing market really crashing? Redfin’s chief economist shares her predictions

•   SCMP: As US and China vie for Pacific influence and resources, tiny New Caledonia can play an outsize role

•   SCMP: China eyes sunny Central Asia for green energy, natural gas deals as need to bolster power supply grows more critical

•   SCMP: Tech war: record number of Chinese chip firms going out of business in sign of Beijing’s sputtering self-sufficiency drive

•   매경(P1): 삼성, 탄소중립 新환경 대전환…車 800만대 분량 탄소배출 줄인다

•   매경: 초격차 환경기술에 7조 투자…탄소중립 속도 내는 삼성

•   매경: "RE100 기준 맞추려면 대만 TSMC처럼 정부가 지원을"

•   매경: "친환경 요건 맞추자" 분주해진 협력사

•   매경(P1): [알립니다] 월가 거물들이 제시하는 경제해법

•   매경: "현대차 불이익 IRA 개정해야"…美 조지아주 정치권도 나섰다

•   매경: 요소수 이어 인플레감축법까지…정부, 사후대응에만 급급

•   매경: [단독] 韓국채 선진지수 편입 30일 윤곽…확정땐 外資 최대 97조 유입

•   매경: 역대급 거래절벽에 취득세 8兆 증발 위기

•   매경: 270만호 짓는다는 정부…50만호는 공급차질 우려

•   매경: 포항제철소 중단에…전기차·변압기부터 타격

•   매경: "무게로 따지면 껌값이 쌀값의 13배"…논 갈아엎는 농심

•   한경: 정부, 태풍 피해 빌미로 포스코 경영에 개입하나

•   한경: 부부공동명의 15만명 '종부세 혼란'

•   한경: "3년 내 퇴사 가능성 70%"…지원자 탈락 시킨 면접관의 정체

•   한경: 알바생 못 구해 '아우성'이라더니…요즘 사장님들 푹 빠졌다

•   한경: "은행이 왜 배달앱을?…편견 깬 슈퍼 플랫폼 돼야 산다"

•   한경: 연 3%대 고정금리 전환 '파격 조건'에도…은행 창구는 '한산'

•   서경(P1): [미래컨퍼런스 2022] "반도체 패권 뺏기면 新식민지 전락"

•   서경: 발의 40일 넘었지만…K칩스법 '산 넘어 산'

•   서경: RPS 비용, 4년뒤 6.6조로 '껑충'…신재생 감속해 한전 부담 던다

•   서경: "금산분리보다 '은산분리' 완화에 초점을…소비자 보호는 숙제"

•   서경: "슈퍼앱 허용 환영하지만…공정·실효성 문제 생길수 있어"

•   서경: 서울시 경전철 적자 문제로 사업 속도 못 낼 듯

•   조선(P1): 2년 10개월만에… 한일 정상회담 열린다

•   조선비즈: 美 유력 일간지 “인플레감축법으로 현대차 7조 투자 타격” 우려

•   조선비즈: 10달러짜리 저가 반도체 없어 836兆 산업 흔들… EUV 장비 생산도 차질

•   조선비즈: 없어서 못 산다던 ‘꼬마빌딩’ 인기도 시들… “거래 뚝 끊겨”

•   조선비즈: “세입자를 잡아라”… ‘역월세’ 준비하는 집주인들

•   인베스트조선: 4차 구조혁신펀드 운용사로 캠코 부상…성장금융 독점서 경쟁 체제로?

•   인베스트조선: 부동산PF로 몸집 불리던 중소형 증권사 잇딴 '비상경영체제'

•   중앙: 한은 “러시아, EU에 가스 공급 끊으면 한국 반도체·조선업도 타격”

※   한국은행: 러시아 가스공급 관련 EU 생산차질 및 국내산업 리스크 점검

•   중앙: 미국 공급망 재편에 급해진 중국, 한국에 ‘서열 3위’ 보냈다

•   중앙: 벼랑 끝 몰린 한계기업, 경제위기 뇌관 되나

•   동아: [단독]서울시 “깡통전세 위험” 국토부는 “안전”… 같은 성북구 빌라 전세가율 발표 달라 혼란

•   동아: 금융노조 오늘 ‘6년만의 총파업’… “창구 혼란은 없을것”

•   동아: “韓 로봇수요 세계 1위… 산업 경쟁력은 中보다 낮아”

•   문화: [단독] ‘인구순유입 최다’ 경기도마저…사망자 > 신생아

•   한국: "쌀값 안정대책 마련해 달라"...8개 광역단체장, 정부에 촉구

•   국민: 부동산시장 얼어붙자… 리츠 상품도 매서운 찬바람

•   한겨레: 손자회사 만들면 그만?…일감몰아주기 규제 구멍

※   경제개혁연구소: “특수관계인에 대한 부당한 이익제공 금지” 규제 대상의 사각지대 사례 및 대안 - 공정거래법 제47조를 중심으로

•   머니투데이: 무섭게 오르는 은행 예금금리에 부담 커지는 저축은행

•   머니투데이: [단독]"美 IPEF 참여로 중국 배제?...중국판 IPEF도 추진한다"

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 마이너스 갭투자·보증보험 모럴해저드…말 많은 깡통전세 현장은 ‘무법천지’

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 일상 덮친 킹달러…유학생들 "나 돌아갈래" [널뛰는 환율에 커진 불확실성]

•   디지털타임스(P1): 尹정부에 반기 든 포스코 경영진… "압연설비 3개월내 정상화" 주장

•   디지털타임스: [전문가 5인에게 듣는 집값 전망] "현재 집값은 금리가 좌우… 내년 상반기까지 떨어질 것"

•   이데일리: 하반기 대규모 분양에도 꽁꽁 언 청약시장 반전 기대 어려워

•   이데일리: 1000만 앞둔 `1인 가구`, 주택시장 `게임 체인저` 될까

•   이데일리: 두산부터 SK까지...국내 기업 신사업에 이름 올린 SMR

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 5만151명 확진…어제보다 1만9천여명 적어

•   아주경제: [단독] 리잔수 만찬 때 '경제 6단체' 한자리에 모인다

•   전자신문(P1): 네이버 14곳·카카오 25곳 스타트업 투자

•   전자신문(P1): [단독]애플, 韓 이용약관에 '애플페이' 추가

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Ernesto Talvi): Will the Fed Strangle Latin America Again?

•   Project Syndicate(Nancy Qian): China’s Future Will Reflect Russia’s

•   Project Syndicate(Anand Gopal): How Wright’s Law Can Right the Climate

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): Economics lessons from the Ukraine war: expectations matter

•   FT(Mohamed El-Erian): The rollercoaster ahead for the economy and investors

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): US stocks are not cheap yet

•   FT(Alan Beattie): Cutting Germany’s risky trade dependence on China

•   FT(Kim Ghattas): Iran may have overestimated US appetite for reviving the nuclear deal

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Is Biden Working on the Railroad Unions?

•   WSJ(Karl Rove): Biden’s Make-Believe Victory Over Inflation

•   WSJ(Tomas J . Philipson): Subsidies Only Feed Inflation

•   WP(Paul Waldman): Biden helped avert one labor crisis. But the deeper challenge remains.

•   WP(Marc A. Thiessen): Biden’s foolish inflation celebration

•   WP(Megan McArdle): Both parties’ pet economic theories are kaput

•   WP(Hugh Hewitt): Where Trump voters will go this year

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): How to Limit Putin and Xi’s ‘No Limits’ Friendship

•   Bloomberg(Michael R. Bloomberg): Pandemic Learning Loss Is a National Crisis

•   Bloomberg(Allison Schrager): Your Guide to the Permanent Pandemic Economy

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Will Central Banks Kill or Nurture the Polar Bear?

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): Jerome Powell to the Rest of the World: Drop Dead

•   Bloomberg(Robert Burgess): The Case Against a Mega 1% Federal Reserve Rate Increase

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): IPhone Maker's India Plant Should Draw Lessons From the US

•   CNN(Joseph H. Davis): 3 things the Fed needs to see before it stops hiking rates

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): Bidenflation' is the root cause of these wage increases

•   동아(박형준): 또다시 기획재정부 출신인가

•   파이낸셜뉴스(구자훈): 재개발·재건축의 새로운 접근방법

•   헤럴드경제(홍길용): 다가오는 금융위기, 금감원이 예방해야

•   아시아경제(임정수): PF국감, 정쟁보다 연착륙 해법을

•   부산일보(사설): 산은 본사 부산 이전, 민주당 법 개정 적극 나서라