Global Economic Monitor 220912

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks jump as growth shares lead; 2-year U.S. yields hit 14-year highs

※   U.S. stocks end sharply higher, post gains for week

※   Euro gains, dollar falls

※   U.S. yield curve inverts further

•   Oil: Oil Prices Slump as Recession Fears Grow

•   Natural gas: European Gas Falls as Bloc Seeks Action to Ease Energy Crisis

•   Metals: Copper rises on weaker dollar, China demand optimism

•   Grains: Corn, soybeans, wheat rally ahead of USDA report next week

[Indicators]

•   US Jul. Wholesale inventories: U.S. wholesale inventories gain revised lower in July

•   US Weekly Rig count: U.S. oil & gas rig count falls to lowest since late July - Baker Hughes

•   China Aug. CPI, PPI: Inflation Eases in China as Growth Challenges Pile Up

※   Consumer prices rose just 2.5% in August from a year earlier, slower than in the previous month and short of expectations

•   China Aug. New Yuan loans: China Bank Lending Sees Slow Recovery Due to Cautious Households

•   Japan Jul. GDP: Japan's July GDP up 0.5%, driven by capital investment: JCER

•   Brazil Aug. CPI: Brazil posts deflation in August as fuel prices fall

•   한국 8월 전력수요: 8월 집중호우에도 전력수요 동월 2위…4년만에 8만MW 돌파

•   한국 8월 전세보증보험 보증 사고: 지난달 세입자가 못 돌려받은 전세금 1천89억원…월 기준 최대

[Lawmakers & Policies]

•   김성주: 고금리 속 은행 예대금리차 계속 확대…2.4%p까지 벌어졌다

•   최승재: 대출 부실 경고등…'빚 50% 이상 탕감' 대출자 3년만에 2배

•   윤창현: 작년 법카 지출액 147조원…음식점 줄고, 백화점·골프 늘고

•   양경숙: 법무부, 10년간 론스타 등 ISDS 대응에 예산 524억원 집행

•   한병도: 내년에도 유류세 인하할까…약 30% 인하 전제로 세수 전망

•   민홍철: 최근 5년간 다주택자 1천명, 4만4천채 '싹쓸이'…총액만 5.8조

•   강민국: "국무총리실 산하 연구기관, 연구원 1인 수행과제 연평균 1.1건"

•   기재부: 尹정부 5년간 지출 증가율 5%대→4%대…국가채무 증가도 감속

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Rapid Advance in East Puts Russian Forces on Defensive

•   WSJ: In Major Advance, Ukraine Drives Russians Out of Key Front-Line Cities

※   Kyiv marks its biggest strategic gain since mounting northeastern offensive this week

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Rout of Russian Forces Poses Challenge of How to Exploit Gains

•   WSJ: Ukrainians in Kherson Resist Russian Occupiers and Hope for Their Army’s Arrival

•   WSJ: Ukraine Considers Shutting Nuclear Plant After Loss of Backup Power

※   After shelling destroys key electricity supply, Zaporizhzhia facility might have to rely on generators with 10 days of fuel left

•   WSJ: Inflation Showed Signs of Easing in Several Industries in August

•   WSJ: Fed Officials Back Another Large Rate Increase

※   ‘Inflation is far from our goal, so more action is needed,’ says Fed governor Christopher Waller

•   WSJ: Fed’s George Says Central Bank Must Press Forward With Increases

•   WSJ: Transcript: WSJ Interview With Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester

•   WSJ: Trump Lawyers Oppose DOJ’s Bid to Resume Review of Seized Classified Materials

•   WSJ: Democrats’ Effort to Speed Up Energy-Project Permitting Faces More Opposition

•   WSJ: Covid-19 Is Still Killing Hundreds of Americans Daily

•   WSJ: Global Drought Saps Hydropower, Complicating Clean-Energy Push

•   WSJ: U.S. Sanctions Iranian Intelligence Ministry and Its Leader, Citing Alleged Hacks

•   WSJ: Inflation Showed Signs of Easing in Several Industries in August

•   WSJ: Why Is the Dollar So Strong? American Innovation

•   WSJ: Outlook for Tech Stocks Darkens After Rocky Stretch

•   WSJ: Treasury to Warn of Crypto Risks

•   WSJ: New Tax on Stock Buybacks Would Have Raised Over $8 Billion in 2021, Study Says

•   WSJ: Tesla Looking Into Building Lithium Refinery

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Lawyer Cites Twitter’s Whistleblower Payment as New Reason to Drop $44 Billion Takeover

•   WSJ: Amazon Buys Warehouse Robotics Company Cloostermans

•   WSJ: Amazon Is Refining Delivery Operations as It Resets Logistics Network

•   WSJ: Alphabet Health Unit Founder Exits as Company Targets Commercial Uses

•   WSJ: Dr. Amazon Will See You Now

•   WSJ: All Eyes on Ambani and Adani to Deliver India’s Green Goals

•   WSJ: California Drought Leaving Rice Farmers Dry

•   WSJ: U.S. Heat Wave Hits Supermarkets’ Produce Sections

•   WSJ: Apple’s iPhone Satellite Service Kicks Off Smartphone Space Race

•   NYT: Biden Administration Outlines Scope of Asian Economic Pact

•   NYT: The U.S. and Russia clash at the U.N. over military aid.

•   NYT: Russia says that a senior Chinese official expressed support for the invasion of Ukraine.

•   NYT: Russia Holds First Elections Since Ukraine Invasion, but Opposition Is Mostly Absent

•   NYT: As Russians Retreat, Putin Is Criticized by Hawks Who Trumpeted His War

•   NYT: As Ukraine advances, a reticent Germany faces more pressure to help.

•   NYT: China’s Public Puts on a Show of Zero Covid for an Audience of One

•   NYT: Chinese Drones: The Latest Irritant Buzzing Taiwan’s Defenses

•   NYT: How Silicon Chips Rule the World

•   NYT: Fed’s Exit Puts World’s Biggest Bond Market on Shakier Ground

•   WP: White House alarm rises over Europe as Putin threatens energy supply

•   WP: Americans are finally feeling better about the economy

•   FT: EU spars over proposal to cap Russian gas prices

•   FT: EU ministers back gas price cap and windfall levy on power companies

※   Member states recommend emergency interventions in energy market to protect households and consumers

•   FT: Can the EU agree a plan to ease energy crisis?

•   FT: EU sounds ‘full mobilisation’ after Kremlin shuts pipeline

•   FT: Europe’s power producers ‘face €1tn’ in margin calls

•   FT: High gas prices help Gazprom compensate for supply cuts

•   FT: Second German gas supplier seeks state bailout

•   FT: France sends power alert to UK and Spain after trading error

•   FT: Solar power generation hits EU record in energy crisis

•   FT: Five EU states vow to introduce minimum corporate tax

•   FT: ECB to start talks on shrinking its balance sheet

•   FT: EU set to ban products made using forced labour

•   FT: Ukraine appeals for $17bn emergency fund as winter looms

•   FT: Energy bills inflated by failure to implement EU power cables deal

•   FT: UK energy package will weigh on gilts and pound, analysts warn

•   FT: Builders and estate agents braced for UK housing downturn

•   FT: Repression and poverty trigger record migration in the Americas

•   FT: California heatwave exposes limits of climate plans

•   FT: Market falls pose challenge for 60/40 portfolios

•   FT: Investors cool on property groups as tide of cheap money recedes

•   FT: Electric vehicles will have to wait for the solid-state battery ‘game-changer’

•   Bloomberg: Biden Signs Order to Boost Biomanufacturing, Compete with China

•   Bloomberg: Global Job Market’s Surprising Rebound From Covid Is Now at Risk

•   Bloomberg: Charting the Global Economy: ECB Joins Jumbo Rate-Hike Club

•   Bloomberg: US Inflation Forecasts Marked a Bit Lower Through 2023 in Survey

•   Bloomberg: Biden Touts Chips Law at Intel Site in Midterm Battleground Ohio

•   Bloomberg: Summers Says Dollar Can Go Further, With ‘Huge Advantage’ for US

•   Bloomberg: Fed to Keep Rates Tighter for Longer Than Expected, Dudley Says

•   Bloomberg: Nomura Sees Bigger Fed Rate Hikes in September, November

•   Bloomberg: Macron Urges Putin to Remove Weapons From Around Nuclear Plant

•   Bloomberg: EU’s Dombrovskis Sees Fiscal Rules Reform Possible by End 2023

•   Bloomberg: EU Is Assessing If US Inflation Act in Breach of WTO Rules

•   Bloomberg: Lagarde Says ECB Can’t Offer Liquidity to Energy Firms

•   Bloomberg: Lagarde Urges Common European Approach to Fighting Inflation

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Stournaras Sees Neutral Rate at Around 1.5% or Even 2%

•   Bloomberg: More Clear ECB Steps Needed If Inflation Lingers, Nagel Says

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Centeno Urges Cautious Next Steps After Historic Rate Hike

•   Bloomberg: ECB Vindicates Arch-Hawk Pondering Memories of 1970s Oil Crisis

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Knot Urges More Hikes to Tackle ‘Big’ Inflation Risk

•   Bloomberg: ECB Should Be Orderly, Determined With Rate Hikes, Villeroy Says

•   Bloomberg: ECB Ramps Up Scrutiny of Banks’ Response to Energy Crisis

•   Bloomberg: ECB Asked by Nonprofits to Set More Ambitious Climate Targets

•   Bloomberg: Italy’s Next Leaders Face Grim Outlook as Draghi Stint Nears End

•   Bloomberg: Bank of England Delays Next Interest Rate Decision Following Queen’s Death

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Challenge to Survive Without Russian Gas in Five Charts

•   Bloomberg: Energy Crisis Pushes Germany to Lock In LNG for Decades

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Newest Reactor Hits 1,000MW Output Milestone First Time

•   Bloomberg: China Has a Crucial Yuan Call to Make as Dollar Pain Mounts

•   Bloomberg: China’s Plan to Revise Constitution Could Enshrine ‘Xi Thought’

•   Bloomberg: Food, Medical Shortages in Locked Down Region Spur China Apology

•   Bloomberg: China May Boost Coal Power Plant Building Amid Energy Crunch

•   Bloomberg: Return of Pricing Power to Keep India Retail Prices Elevated

•   Bloomberg: India Considers New Coal Imports as Energy Supply Concern Grows

•   Bloomberg: Lula Mulls Running Mate for Key Cabinet Job If Elected in Brazil

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Record Percentage of Working Mothers Masks Low-Pay Jobs

•   Bloomberg: Treasuries Suggest Fed Can Tame Inflation Without Killing Growth

•   Bloomberg: Bear Market Leaves Bond Investors With Few Places to Hide

•   Bloomberg: Bailout Euphoria Signals Peak of Pessimism in Emerging Markets

•   Bloomberg: Tech Rally Haunted by ‘Palpable Fear’ of Chip Industry Weakness

•   Bloomberg: China Consumer Stock Rout Signals Darkening Economic Outlook

•   Bloomberg: Yuan and Yen Vigilance to Ease Asian Currency Selloff, Citi Says

•   Bloomberg: Euro Trading Is All About the Energy Crisis, Not ECB Rate Hikes

•   Bloomberg: Russia Poised to Ship First Cargo From New LNG Plant to Greece

•   Bloomberg: Global Food Supply Faces Fresh Turmoil With Rice Set to Climb

•   Bloomberg: Japan Rolls Out Carbon Capture Devices for Small Emitters

•   Reuters: Xi to meet Putin in first trip outside China since COVID began

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Draft IAEA board resolution calls on Russia to leave Zaporizhzhia plant

•   Reuters: OECD calls for revival of collective bargaining to fight wage erosion

•   Reuters: India, China to withdraw from disputed border area by Monday

•   Reuters: Roblox to launch 3D advertising next year

•   Reuters: Analysis: Kim Jong Un's 'decapitation' fears shine through in new North Korea nuclear law

•   Reuters: Analysis: Ukraine blindsides Russia with northeastern thrust at supply hub

•   AP: As small businesses raise prices, some customers push back

•   CNN: Yellen says inflation and higher gas prices remain a 'risk'

•   CNN: Massive rail strike next week could deal another blow to America's economy

•   CNBC: Where Walmart, Amazon and Target are spending billions in a slowing economy

•   MarketWatch: The wild card that could sink stocks: What investors need to know as the Fed unwinds liquidity that had helped fuel market gains

•   New York Post: Apple ‘playing with fire’ buying iPhone 14 parts from Chinese supplier: lawmakers

•   SCMP: Taiwan’s multinationals are expanding from Malaysia to Mexico as they tread water in mainland China

•   SCMP: Chinese shippers face abyss as freight rates plummet 60 per cent from ‘unprecedented’ highs at height of coronavirus pandemic

•   SCMP: China looks to plug job market damage from tech crackdown with more support for internet economy

•   SCMP: China shipping: exporters lament ‘plummeting’ demand as peak season turns off-season

•   SCMP: China ‘supplementing’ South Korean industrial development model as tech sectors catch up

•   Caixin: China ‘Normalizes’ Covid Tests Nationwide Including in Regions With No Cases

•   Caixin: Analysis: How Will Coal Hub Shanxi Cut Carbon Emissions?

•   Caixin: Weekend Long Read: How China Can Chart a Path Forward in International Trade

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan to remove entry cap soon, with eye on autumn tourism: official

•   Nikkei Asia: BOJ and government find talk not enough to stop yen's fall

•   Nikkei Asia: BOJ's Kuroda warns against 'rapid' yen moves after meeting PM

•   Nikkei Asia: Investors await effective policy responses as yen tests 1998 low

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan to hand out $350 to low-income households to tackle inflation

•   Nikkei Asia: More empty homes: Japan's housing glut to hit 10m in 2023

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan and South Korea face pricier iPhones as currencies slump

•   Nikkei Asia: BMW taps Chinese battery makers to extend EV range up to 30%

•   매경(P1): 北김정은 "절대 먼저 핵포기 없다" 선제적 核사용 법제화

•   매경: 추석 후에도 투자시장 암울…"지금은 안전자산에 대피할 때"

•   매경(P1): 추석 지나도 식탁물가 불안

•   매경(P1): 태풍에 멈춘 포스코 용광로, 다시 끓는다

•   매경: "연말까지 박스피…이달 FOMC 이후 깜짝 반등 나올 수도"

•   조선비즈: 15억 초과 주택 대출규제 완화가 집값 못올리는 세 가지 이유

•   조선비즈: “탄소중립 전에 감축부터”… 포스코·현대제철, 징검다리 기술 속도

•   조선비즈: 고정금리 vs 변동금리 어떤 게 낫나… 과거 역전현상 돌아보니

•   조선비즈: 혹독한 반도체 겨울에도… 삼성·SK, 내년 투자 더 늘린다

•   조선비즈: [세종풍향계] “반갑긴 한데…” 맑은 하늘 보며 답답함 호소한 경제부처 속사정

•   조선비즈: “달러 팔아 자식 결혼까지 시켰는데”… 쇠락해가는 명동 환전상들

•   채널A: [단독]세금에 카드 수수료까지?…“현행법 위반” 지적

•   연합: 오후9시 3만5625명 확진, 어제보다 8460명↑…연휴 3일째에 반등

•   연합: "중국, 탄소중립 추진하며 내수 중심 성장…우리기업 대응해야"

※   한국은행: 해외경제 포커스(제2022-21호)

•   연합: 美 '외국인 미국투자 안보 조사', 중국에 집중…한·일도 '주목'

•   연합: 수장 교체앞둔 공정위…카카오T·구글·변협 등 대형사건 향방은

•   연합: 거리두기 해제에 숙박·음식점 경기 코로나 이전 회복

•   연합: 한국 2분기 경제성장률, OECD 포함 35개국 중 20위 '중하위권'

•   연합: 외국계 사모펀드가 보유한 상장사 지분가치, 국내 사모펀드의 9배

•   연합: 약세장에 상장사 10곳 중 7곳 목표가 내려…상승·하락률 1위는

•   연합: 베어마켓 랠리 마무리…증시 불안에 공매도 거래대금 늘어

•   연합: 주가 급등 '태조이방원', 대주주·임원은 자사주 매도 행렬

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Dani Rodrik): Governance for a Healthy Economy

•   Project Syndicate(Jorge G. Castañeda): Chile Says No to Revolution

•   FT(Editorial Board): Currency shifts add to global economic woes

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): Vladimir Putin has forced the EU into a long-overdue energy union

•   FT(Katie Martin): A more sober outlook weighs on investors

•   FT(Merryn Somerset Webb): Second chances loom in the commodity bull market

•   FT(Neal Hudson): The great British housing wealth divide

•   FT(Jonathan Wheatley): Can India become the new emerging markets powerhouse?

•   FT(Brendan Greeley): Countries do not control their own currencies

•   FT(Ruchir Sharma): Robots need to move faster to save the world

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Janet Yellen’s Fantasy Economy

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The European Central Bank Goes Big on a Rate Hike

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Europe Pays and Pays for Net Zero

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Europe’s Latest Carbon Fiasco

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Ukraine Takes the Offensive

•   WSJ(Andy Kessler): The Hot-and-Cold Economy

•   WSJ(Bjorn Lomborg): Policies Pushing Electric Vehicles Show Why Few People Want One

•   WSJ(Michael S. Derby): Fed Rate Could Soon Catch Up to Where Monetary Policy Rules Suggest It Should Be

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Wartime Economics Comes to Europe

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Wonking Out: The Mysteries of the Almighty Dollar

•   NYT(Peter Coy): Buy American? It Gets Complicated.

•   NYT(Ross Douthat): The Ukraine War’s Decisive Season

•   NYT(Ezra Klein): All Biden Has to Do Now Is Change the Way We Live

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): The myth of the manufacturing comeback

•   WP(Henry Olsen): The Chips Act is already a boon to the U.S.

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): The Global Recovery Is Sending Flares. Is Anyone Watching?

•   Bloomberg(Justin Fox): Americans Older Than 55 Haven't Given Up Working

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): Artificial Intelligence Will Be a Great Equalizer

•   Bloomberg(Mihir Sharma): India’s Economy Is Stuck Just Short of Escape Velocity

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): The ECB Is Worrisomely Cheerful About Growth Even as It Raises Rates

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Britain Goes the Wrong Way on Energy Bailout

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): The State Is Back in Energy for Good: Elements by Liam Denning

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): Putin Has Squandered the Soviet Energy Legacy, Part 1

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): Putin Has Squandered Soviet Energy Legacy, Part 2

•   Bloomberg(Clara Ferreira Marques): China Is Winning the Post-Ukraine Game, at Russia’s Expense

•   Bloomberg(Matthew Yglesias): Biden Should Give Big Oil a Bailout

•   Bloomberg(Jessica Karl): AI, EVs and More Ways Tech Is About to Change the World

•   Bloomberg(Allegra Stratton): Climate Change: South Africa May Hold the Key to Global Net Zero

•   Bloomberg(Eric Mollo): Inflation Eases, Russia Ramps Up the Propaganda and Vietnam's Economy

•   MarketWatch(Rex Nutting): Americans are feeling poorer for good reason: Household wealth was shredded by inflation and Fed tightening

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): These climate policies would lead to a global economic and financial catastrophe

•   조선비즈(윤희훈): 사상 최대 무역적자, 유류세 인하도 한몫했다