Global Economic Monitor 220914

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks tumble, dollar rallies as soaring U.S. inflation implies an aggressive Fed

※   Dollar rallies after inflation's upward surprise

※   Global stock index in the red, Wall Street stocks sell off

※   Oil prices lose ground, Treasury yields rise

•   Natural gas: European Gas Rises as EU Seeks Consensus on Plans to Ease Crisis

•   Metals: Copper lurches lower after strong U.S. inflation data

•   Grains: U.S. soybean, corn futures dip on profit taking; wheat firms

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Falls Most Since June Plunge; Ether Slumps Before Merge

•   한국: 연휴 마친 코스피·코스닥 2%대 상승…환율 1,370원대로 하락

[Indicators]

•   US 2021 Household income: U.S. Incomes Fail to Grow for Second Year in a Row, Census Figures Show

•   US 2021 Poverty rate: Key U.S. poverty measure hit record low in 2021 largely due to federal aid

•   US Aug. CPI: U.S. Inflation Remained High in August

※   Consumer prices excluding food, energy rose sharply, showing broad price pressures strengthened

※   WSJ: Where Prices Rose and Fell in August

※   WSJ: As Gasoline Prices Drop, Electricity and Some Heating Costs Rise

※   WSJ: Inflation Report Keeps Fed on Aggressive Rate-Rise Path

※   WSJ: Fed Might Look at Raising Rates a Full Percentage Point

※   WSJ: Inflation Infighting: Honey, Do We Really Need Those Pine Nuts?

※   Bloomberg: Biden Celebration of Economy Skips Over Inflation That Haunts It

•   US Aug. Fiscal account: Federal Deficit Widened to $220 Billion in August

•   US Aug. NFIB Business optimism index: U.S. small business sentiment rises in August- NFIB

•   Germany Sep. ZEW economic sentiment: German Investor Outlook Sours as Winter Energy Squeeze Nears

•   UK Jul. Employment: UK unemployment falls to lowest rate since 1974

•   Japan Aug. PPI: Japan August wholesale prices up 9% on year as material costs rise

•   India Aug. Economic activity(Bloomberg): Surge in Services Demand Helps Steady India’s Economy in August

•   Russia Aug. Energy revenue: Russia Energy Revenue Drops to 14-Month Low on Sanctions Fallout

•   한국 상반기 신용카드사 영업실적: 카드론 줄고 현금서비스는 늘었다

•   한국 8월 고용행정통계: 밤에 택시 왜 안잡히나 했더니…3년간 기사 3만명 사라졌다

•   한국 9월 1~10일 수출: 9월 1∼10일 무역적자 24억달러…25년만에 6개월 연속 적자 우려

•   한국 9월 재산세: 역시 강남3구, 서울 재산세의 42%..강남구는 도봉구의 23배

[Lawmakers & Policies]

•   강준현: "최근 5년간 고소득 사업자, 소득 절반 신고 누락…총 5.4조원"

•   정우택: 최근 10년 특별교부세 교부액 전남 1조2천억원·광주 4천억원

•   김성주: 재취업심사 유명무실… 금융위·금감원 출신 탈락자 단 3명뿐

•   강민국: [단독]FIU에 접수된 '코인' 의심거래, 16배 폭증

•   윤창현: 국세청, 납세자 불복에 돌려준 세금 5년간 9조…이자만 6천억

•   홍기원: 임대주택 1채 지으면 LH 부채 1.8억 증가…“정부 지원단가 현실화를”

•   홍기원: "부동산 규제지역 역효과만 불러…폐지·통폐합 검토해야"

•   한병도: 종부세 완화 지방주택 기준 사실상 3억 확정

•   박상혁: [단독]서울 5가구 이상 다주택자, 10명중 3명은 ‘강남3구’에 살아

•   박상혁: [단독]주택임대 사업자 47만명…4년 새 10배 늘었다

•   김한규: ‘고공행진 치킨값’에 선전포고…김한규 “공정위 역할론 따진다”[파워초선]

•   박대출: “국가 채무, 결국 후손들이 갚아야 한다는 의식 갖고 풀어야” [세계초대석]

•   국무조정실: 文정부 태양광' 조사하자마자…2600억 불법집행 확인

•   기재부: '묻지마' 예타 면제 없앤다

※   보도자료: 비상경제장관회의 개최

•   기재부: [관가뒷담] 경제 슬로건 필요없다던 정부, 뒤늦게 아이디어 찾기

•   노동부: 이정식 고용장관 "70년 된 공장법, 글로벌 기준에 맞게 고칠 것"

•   산업부, 중기부: [단독] 호화청사 팔라더니…대규모 수술보다 '인력 다이어트'

•   복지부: [단독] 작년 회의 0번…'건보체계 개편' 맡은 유명무실 위원회

•   국토부: 시장급랭 “청약제도 바꿔달라” 민원 봇물

•   행안부, 산업부, 기재부: '기회발전특구' 도입…지방이전 기업 稅혜택

•   행안부: 지자체 수의계약 한도 2배로… "지역경제 활성화 기대"

•   금감원: 면바지 입고 출근한 72년생 이복현, 딱딱하던 금감원이 달라졌다

•   금감원: ‘이상 외환거래’ 판 커진다…금감원, 기업은행 현장검사 검토

•   주금공: "은행이 더 싸잖아요"… 설 자리 잃은 `보금자리론`

•   경사연: 국채 당국 인력 태부족…KDI, 정부 협업 ‘국채연구팀’ 신설 검토

•   개인정보위: 임기 남았는데…공정위·금융위 이어 개인정보보호위원장도 바뀐다

•   한국은행: 금통위원들 “高물가 고착 막으려면 기준금리 인상 기조 유지해야”

※   보도자료: 금융통화위원회 의사록(2022년도 제16차)(2022.8.25)

•   서울시: “제보자에 포상금 최대 2억” 서울시, 깡통전세 사기 수사

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Economy Stabilizes, a Boost Alongside Rapid Military Gains

•   WSJ: Ukraine Seeks More Arms, Closer Ties to West After Taking Ground From Russia

•   WSJ: Russia’s War Plan Is Rocked by Ukraine’s Rapid Gains

•   WSJ: China’s Xi and Russia’s Putin Seek to Counter West in First In-Person Meeting Since Ukraine War Began

•   WSJ: White House Explores Rail-Freight Alternatives as Possible Strike Looms

•   WSJ: OPEC Reiterates Warning About Disconnected Oil Market

※   OPEC: MOMR September 2022

•   WSJ: Property Faces a Slow Reckoning as Interest Rates Rise

•   WSJ: Armenia, Azerbaijan Clashes Test Russia’s Support for Regional Ally

•   WSJ: China’s EV Battery Runner-Up Is Worth a Look

•   NYT: How the New Climate Law Can Save You Thousands of Dollars

•   NYT: The U.S. Touts Big Investments for Mexico, Testing Its Nationalist Policies

•   NYT: U.S. Banks Lost a Record $370 Billion in Deposits Last Quarter

•   NYT: Amazon to Fund Raises for Delivery Drivers Amid Tight Labor Market

•   NYT: Twitter Investors Back Musk’s Takeover Bid After Whistleblower Testifies in Congress

•   WP: Russia spent millions in secret global political campaign, U.S. official says

•   WP: Biden’s flimsy claim he has the ‘strongest’ manufacturing jobs record

•   FT: Russia’s energy weapon is losing steam

•   FT: Uranium rallies as energy crisis puts nuclear power in focus

•   FT: Russian army hobbled by shortage of soldiers

•   FT: Germany pledges €67bn to bolster struggling energy companies

•   FT: At least 17mn people in Europe have had long Covid, says WHO

•   FT: US struggles to mobilise its East Asian ‘Chip 4’ alliance

•   FT: Permitting reforms for US infrastructure lay bare energy tensions

•   FT: Xi to reassert China’s influence on first foreign trip since start of Covid

•   FT: US’s Taiwan security bill spurs debate on level of support for Taipei

•   FT: Global inflation pushes millions of Africans back into poverty

•   FT: A dollar borrowed is a dollar earned

•   FT: ESG ETFs face perfect storm in the US

•   FT: Debt monsters: a look at companies flashing warning signals

•   FT: Evergrande vows to restart all stalled property projects

•   FT: Amazon’s compliance with new laws ‘a work in progress’, says top EU official

•   Bloomberg: Summers Favors Full-Point Rate Hike Over Half at Next Week’s Fed Meeting

•   Bloomberg: US Job Growth Projected to Slow This Decade as Labor Force Ages

•   Bloomberg: Biden May Buy Oil Just Below $80; Democrats Stymied Trump at $24

•   Bloomberg: France Cuts 2023 GDP Growth Forecast to 1%, Citing ‘Tense’ Backdrop

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Simkus Sees Hike of ‘at Least’ a Half-Point in October

•   Bloomberg: Xi’s Next Power Play May Be Age Limits for Everyone But Himself

•   Bloomberg: China’s Li Pledges Growth Support as Holiday Spending Falls

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Says China Will Stick to Covid Zero Even After Communist Party Meeting

•   Bloomberg: Soft Landing for India Means Fast, If Not Fastest, Growth

•   Bloomberg: Lula Has Twice as Many Votes as Bolsonaro Among Aid Recipients

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Is the Best Place to Bet Against Hawkish Central Banks

•   Bloomberg: Cash-Strapped Argentina Goes All or Nothing on New Economy Chief

•   Bloomberg: IMF Plans Food-Shock Help as It Weighs Revamp of Global Role

•   Bloomberg: Burden of Raising Kids Drives Korean Fertility to World’s Lowest

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Sees Fresh Pain on Wall Street as Real Rates Rise

•   Bloomberg: Hedge Fund’s Decade-Long Wait for Yuan Crash Nears Payday

•   Bloomberg: BofA Survey Shows Investors Fleeing Equities en Masse on Fear of Recession

•   Bloomberg: Commodity Markets Contend With a Growing Liquidity Crisis

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: It’s White-Collar Jobs That Are at Risk in the Next Recession

•   Reuters: Exclusive: U.S. considers China sanctions to deter Taiwan action, Taiwan presses EU

※   The sources said the deliberations in Washington and Taipei's separate lobbying of EU envoys were both at an early stage

•   Reuters: Biden celebrates 'Inflation Reduction Act' as food, rent prices climb

•   Reuters: India's RBI may hike rates by 50 basis points as inflation accelerates, analysts say

•   Reuters: Analysis: Wall St outlook darkens as grim inflation report tees up more Fed hawkishness

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. midterm elections may add more risk to shaky stock market

•   Reuters: Analysis: Despite U.S. inflation's bite, Democratic voters are energized for midterms

•   CNN: America is already feeling the consequences of a looming nationwide rail strike

•   CNBC: Inflation ‘collapse’ will launch powerful market rally, Credit Suisse predicts

•   CNBC: From inflation to war, here are the 4 big factors impacting markets and the economy right now

•   CNBC: Housing might be struggling in China but there are green shoots in commercial property

•   Barron's: European Natural-Gas Prices Could Tumble, Says Goldman Sachs

•   Fox Business: US national debt nears $31T: What it means and why it's a concern

•   SCMP: As China vows to boost economy, crippling zero-Covid policy may be ‘more zealously implemented’

•   SCMP: US should expand its restrictions on sale of hi-tech products to China, panel is told

•   SCMP: China’s Mid-Autumn Festival travel, tourism tumbles under zero-Covid, National Day holiday ‘will be even worse’

•   SCMP: US will lose China tech war if 5G, AI, microchip ‘core’ fronts are not fortified, report warns

•   Global Times: Key projects in full swing across China, set to boost economic recovery

•   Nikkei Asia: Pakistan floods drive calls for climate justice

•   매경(P1): 돈 남아도는 초중고…단체로 잠옷까지 사입어

•   매경: PC방도 아닌데…툭하면 컴퓨터 바꿔주는 학교 속사정

•   매경: 시도교육청 부채 3600억뿐인데…빚 갚는데 쓰라고 교부금 4조 편성

•   매경: 자영업자 빚, 일반인의 4배…청년 4명 중 1명은 실업자

•   매경: 총파업 나서는 금융노조…"주 36시간만 근무" 주장에 은행원마저 외면

•   매경: 비상경영 포스코…매출 늘어도 현금흐름 87% '뚝'

•   매경: 대출·전세사기 걱정에…'월세 선호도' 껑충

•   한경(P1): "아파트값 더 떨어진다" 압도적 전망…2030 영끌족 공포

•   한경(P1): 포스코의 스마트공장…"名匠 노하우 디지털화"

•   한경: 40년 베테랑 기술 'AI 고로'에 녹이니…포스코 불량률 60% 줄었다

•   한경: 1.5초 만에…로봇팔이 품질 검사 완료

•   한경: "개인 맞춤형 시대…기관총 난사식 생산은 끝나"

•   한경: 법제처 심사 패싱…기업규제법 발의 10년새 3배↑

•   한경: 해외 본사에 '1조 배당 잔치'한 기업들

•   한경: "법정 최고금리 낮춰라", "대출 원가 공개하라"…시장 자율성 침해하는 금융법안 '봇물'

•   한경TV: [단독] 고객 몰래 인출했는데…새마을금고 "실제 손해없다"

•   서경(P1): 쌓이는 중고 기계…"절반은 고철로 팔아"

•   서경(P1): "인력 이탈 국민연금, 서울 사무소 설치해야"

•   서경: 한은 “엔저 가속·中 경기하강 우려 커…금리역전 길어지면 자본유출 배제못해”

•   서경: 애플 전문가의 '일갈'.."아이폰14, 세분화 전략 실패"

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 기아 노조 “평생 차값 30% 할인, 계속 해달라”

•   조선: “17% 대출을 2.6%로 낮춰줄게” 전화 받고 금융정보 알려줬더니…

•   조선비즈: 美 IRA에 삼성전자 RE100 까지… 재생에너지 장 열렸다

•   조선비즈: 정부 규제에 소규모 펀드 정리 속도…운용업계 “투자자 불만 커질 수도”

•   조선비즈: 제동걸린 수직증축… 핵심기술 ‘선재하공법’ 부적합 판정

•   조선비즈: “국내 설비투자 늘리는데”…美 ‘바이오 우선주의’에 삼바⋅셀트 초긴장

•   조선비즈: 통상본부장 “이번 주부터 美와 ‘韓전기차 세액공제’ 실무 협상 시작”

•   조선비즈: 올해만 벌써 22개?…줄줄이 상장 철회하는 기업들

•   인베스트조선: 하반기 채용 준비하는 은행들...서슬퍼런 금융당국 눈치?

•   중앙: 엔저에 한국 수출기업 타격? 그건 옛날 말입니다

•   동아: “빌린 30만원, 한달뒤 100만원 돼”… 불법사채 내몰리는 서민들

•   동아: 상반기 전기차 배터리 시장 59조원… 국내3사 26% 점유, 中 CATL 30%

•   동아: [단독]“부동산 계약금 수금 알바인줄 알고…” 보이스피싱 가담한 청년들

•   한국(P1): [단독] 줄었다던 특활비 되레 늘어…한동훈 법무부, 더 챙겼다

•   한국: '빚에 쫓기고 생활비 빠듯'... 청년과 노인이 일하는 이유

※   한국은행: 노동공급 확대 요인 분석: 청년층과 고령층을 중심으로

•   한국: [단독] “한국 정부 재생에너지 축소, 한국 기업의 수조원 손실로 이어질 것” RE100 대표의 경고

•   한겨레: 카드빚에 저당잡힌 30년…“그때 재기할 기회 주어졌더라면”

•   경향(P1): 녹슬고 금간 안전…중대재해 10건 중 7건은 ‘노후 산단’서 발생[산재 도사리는 낡은 산업단지]

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 국민 27.3% “서민·약자 위한 복지확대가 최우선” [추석민심 여론조사 ②경제정책 인식]

•   헤럴드경제: 10명 중 6명 “종부세 규제 풀어야”…법인세 인하는 정치성향 따라 갈려 [추석민심 여론조사 ②경제정책 인식]

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 이자조차 못내는 한계기업 2년새 23.7%↑...기촉법·기활법 일몰되면 어쩌나

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 은행 자금줄 마른 PF… 지방건설현장 멈췄다 [PF 부실 뇌관 터지나]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 주택시장 ‘돈맥경화’ 시행업계 위기 [PF 부실 뇌관 터지나]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 2금융 부동산·건설 대출 급증… 당국 ‘리스크 관리’ 고삐 죈다 [PF 부실 뇌관 터지나]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 韓·中 ‘원통형 배터리’ 전쟁… BMW, 이번엔 삼성SDI 손잡나

•   아시아경제(P1): 한전, 사우디서 ‘5.5조’ LNG발전 사업 추진

•   아시아경제(P1): ['돈먹는 하마' 공적연금]군인연금 개혁 3년째 외쳐도 요지부동

•   아시아경제(P1): ‘하루 20건’에 그친 서울 아파트 거래량… 2년전 노원구보다 적다

•   아시아경제: 네이버 근무제 실험 두 달째..."퇴근 후 서핑, 회식은 커피챗으로"

•   아시아경제: "한국의 과도한 긴축이 고환율 부른다"

•   아시아경제: [단독] 이부진 사장, 1000억원 또 대출… 커지는 상속세 부담

•   디지털타임스: 반값수수료에 거래도 절벽… 서울 공인중개소 동마다 1곳꼴 폐업

•   디지털타임스: 해외건설 수주 200억달러 돌파… `실적 부진` 돌파구 찾나

•   이데일리(P1): [단독] 고양 킨텍스 지하에 제2 코엑스몰 들어서나...

•   이데일리: 초코파이도 9년 만에 올랐다…고물가 '공포'가 '현실'로

•   이데일리: 70년대 법체계 그대로...재난피해 사각지대에 놓인 소상공인

•   연합: 오후9시까지 전국 9만1239명 확진…연휴 끝나자 3만6천여명 급증

•   더구루: [단독] 삼성전자·서울반도체, 美 LED 특허소송 함께 휘말려

•   전자신문(P1): 현대차, 전기차 판매 작년比 '70%대' 성장

•   전자신문(P1): 손바닥 정맥으로 비행기 탑승하는 시대 열린다

•   전자신문: '재고 충격' 노트북 시장까지 덮쳤다...'코로나 특수' 사라져

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Barry Eichengreen): The Long Shadow of Black Wednesday

•   Project Syndicate(Jeffrey D. Sachs): Pakistan and the Fight for Climate Justice

•   FT(Editorial Board): EU must stand together in the energy war against Russia

•   FT(Martin Wolf): Globalisation is not dying, it’s changing

•   FT(Janan Ganesh): US soft power grows as the alternatives become clear

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Housing inflation is dead

•   FT(Philip Coggan): Investors may face painful adjustment to era of ‘spend but don’t tax’

•   FT(Oliver Roeder): AI tries its hand at economics

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The 2022 Midterm Voting Is Already Beginning

•   WSJ(James Freeman): The Inflation Election

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Misery Takes a Holiday

•   WP(Editorial Board): As Europe tilts right, Putin is heartened

•   WP(David Ignatius): What if the United States loses the AI race against China?

•   WP(Henry Olsen): Democrats cannot wish away their inflation curse

•   WP(Maya MacGuineas): The White House is wrong. Biden is no steward of fiscal responsibility.

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Give Ukraine What It Needs to Win

•   Bloomberg(Niall Ferguson): Ukraine’s Army Is Winning But Its Economy Is Losing

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): Coming Rate Shock Will Be Different But No Less Fraught

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): The Best-Case Scenario for the Fed’s Inflation Fight Is Dead

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Hot Corporate Bond Market Puts Buyers’ Strike on Ice

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Markets Need to Take Rate Cuts Out of How They View Good Inflation News

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Permian Oil Pullback Is Risk for US Production Growth: Elements by Javier Blas

•   Bloomberg(Anjani Trivedi): The Holes in America’s China-Style Industrial Policy

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): Harsh Winter Reality Is Finally Sinking In for EU Leaders

•   Bloomberg(Adam Minter): A US-China Battle on the Moon Is Possible, and Avoidable

•   Bloomberg(Matt Levine): Crypto Wants Some SEC Rules

•   MarketWatch(Paul Brandus): Predictions of an easy Russian victory were wrong — but optimism over a Ukraine win is premature

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): The highest inflation in 40 years is deeply embedded in the economy and spreading

•   중앙(권대중): ‘270만가구 공급’ 하려면 주민부터 설득해야