Global Economic Monitor 220909

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks, bond yields rise after record ECB rate hike, Powell comments

※   ECB raises rates by a record 75 basis points

※   U.S. stocks end higher

※   Sterling falls after Queen Elizabeth dies

•   UK: Pound sinks as markets digest scale of Truss’s economic challenge

•   China: PBOC’s Strong Fix Fails to Prop Up Yuan as Bearishness Extends

•   Natural gas: Europe Gas Jumps With Worries Energy Crunch Will Stall Economies

•   Metals: Aluminium, copper prices climb on worries about supply

•   Grains: U.S. wheat futures retreat after rally, corn also weak

•   한국: 코스피, 0.33% 오른 2,380대 마감…기관·개인 매수

[Indicators]

•   US Jul. Consumer credit: U.S. consumer credit growth moderates in July

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Fall for Fourth Straight Week

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates(Freddie Mac): Mortgage Rates Hit 5.89%, Highest Level Since 2008

•   Eurozone Benchmark rate: ECB raises rates by 75 basis points and promises more to come

※   Central bank increases eurozone borrowing costs to their highest level since 2011

※   ECB: Monetary policy decisions

•   UK Aug. Job vacancies: UK Job Vacancies Grow at Slowest Pace in 18 Months, Survey Says

•   Japan Q2 GDP(rev.): Japan’s Economy Shows Greater Strength as Global Outlook Darkens

•   India Jul. Current account: Japan's July current account surplus drops 87% to lowest since 1985

•   India Aug. Fuel demand: India's August fuel demand steady m-o-m, diesel consumption drops

•   India Aug. Consumer sentiments: Consumer sentiments in India dip: CMIE

•   Malaysia Benchmark rate: Malaysia Central Bank Raises Benchmark Rate Amid Rising Inflation

•   한국 7월 소비자거리지수: 올 여름, 코로나 전보다 멀리 가고 많이 썼다

•   한국 8월 가계대출: 고금리 부담에 신용대출 3개월 연속 감소

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 아파트 '서울불패' 끝났나…하락폭 9년만에 최대

※   매경: 도곡렉슬 석달새 7억원 하락…거래절벽에 강남도 장사없네

•   한국 주간 아파트 수급동향(부동산원): 추락하는 서울 아파트값…매수심리도 18주째 '꽁꽁'

[News]

•   WSJ: Fed’s Powell Affirms Need to Act Strongly to Fight Inflation

※   Central bank officials haven’t pushed back against market expectations of third consecutive 0.75-point rate increase later this month

•   WSJ: Fed’s Evans Open Minded on Size of September Rate Increase

•   WSJ: NY Fed Official Sees Declining Use of Fed Reserve Repo Tool

•   WSJ: DOJ to Appeal Judge's Order Appointing Special Master in Trump Mar-A-Lago Probe

•   WSJ: Yellen Highlights Biden Economic Policy in Visit to Michigan

•   WSJ: Ukrainian Forces Punch Forward in East, Threatening Russian Supply Lines

•   WSJ: U.S. to Send More Than $2.6 Billion in Ukraine-Related Military Aid

•   WSJ: Russian Billionaire Mikhail Fridman Offers $1 Billion to Ukraine in Hope of Sanctions Relief

•   WSJ: Baltic States, Poland to Cut Land Route to EU for Most Russian Visa Holders

•   WSJ: Global Coal-Fired Power Generation Falls as Prices Soar and China Slows

•   WSJ: China’s Lending Strategy in Emerging Markets Risks Prolonging Borrowers’ Pain

•   WSJ: China Tightens Travel Restrictions as Covid Fight Intensifies

•   WSJ: Bank of Japan Can Stomach Weak Yen

•   WSJ: Broad Declines Drag Bonds Into Rare Bear Market

•   WSJ: Audit Deal or Not, Many Chinese Companies May Avoid Delisting

•   WSJ: Companies Are Buying Large Numbers of Carbon Offsets That Don’t Cut Emissions

•   WSJ: Twitter Agreed to Pay Whistleblower Roughly $7 Million in June Settlement

•   WSJ: Apple’s New iPhones Create Buzz in China, but Local Rivals Loom

•   WSJ: Rivian, Mercedes to Partner on Electric-Van Factory

•   WSJ: Tesla Deliveries From China Factory Jump, but BYD Races Ahead in Country

•   NYT: Shock Waves Hit the Global Economy, Posing Grave Risk to Europe

•   NYT: Climate Change Could Worsen Supply Chain Turmoil

•   NYT: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Looks Like a ‘Failure,’ C.I.A. Director Says

•   NYT: The Days of Energy Deregulation Are Over in Europe

•   NYT: A Smartphone That Lasts a Decade? Yes, It’s Possible.

•   WP: The puzzling impact of the Ukraine war on ordinary Russians

•   FT: Queen Elizabeth II dies

•   FT: King Charles III takes the throne

•   FT: US’s gas rescue plan for Europe threatens domestic backlash

•   FT: Zugzwang central banking (ECB edition)

•   FT: Brussels aims to relax state aid rules to ease energy sector cash crunch

•   FT: EU Economy Risks ‘Full Stop’ on Energy Crisis, Belgium Warns

•   FT: Macron convenes French ‘national council’ in bid to reboot second term

•   FT: Poland warns against plans for EU power windfall levy

•   FT: Truss unveils £150bn energy plan but limits business support

•   FT: Unlimited power (subsidies)!

•   FT: Businesses left in dark over UK’s energy rescue package

•   FT: Truss’s £150bn energy plan puts Bank of England on the spot

•   FT: Energy producers extended £40bn ‘last resort’ liquidity facility

•   FT: Truss shows signs of a more pragmatic approach to the EU

•   FT: US Eases Huawei Curbs to Counter China’s Push on Tech Standards

•   FT: India and China undercut Russia’s oil sanctions pain

•   FT: Can Japan feed itself?

•   FT: North Korea seizes on Russian isolation to deepen ties with Putin

•   FT: Bond Markets Are Showing Turnaround Signs in Emerging Asia

•   FT: Putin’s Attack on Ukraine Grain Deal Belied by Shipping Data

•   FT: Gas tycoon Charif Souki sees US boon from Europe’s energy crisis

•   FT: Hard landing threat hangs over booming container shipping industry

•   FT: Evergrande crisis deepens after lender seizes headquarters

•   FT: EU’s Ban on Russian Fuel to Spark a Jump in Global Tanker Demand

•   FT: Big Oil talks up green credentials but investments fall short

•   FT: Turning up the heat on energy security

•   Bloomberg: Fed Inflation Battle to Spur Greater Economic Harm Than Realized

•   Bloomberg: US Household Spending Jumped More than Twice as Fast as Incomes Last Year

•   Bloomberg: Costly Housing Will Make the Job of Taming Inflation Even Harder

•   Bloomberg: Economists Say Energy Plan Will Push Up BOE Interest Rates

•   Bloomberg: China’s Top Climate Cop Says $19 Trillion Needed to Meet Targets

•   Bloomberg: India, China Move Back Troops From Another Border Friction Site

•   Bloomberg: India Is Running Out of Weapons to Deter China Due to Modi Order

•   Bloomberg: US Sanctions Iranian Company for Providing Drones to Russia

•   Bloomberg: Lula and Bolsonaro Battle to Be Biggest Spender on Social Aid

•   Bloomberg: China Overtakes US With $306 Billion Corporate Credit Boom

•   Bloomberg: India Curbs Rice Exports in Blow to Global Food Inflation

•   Bloomberg: New Gas Terminals Arrive to Ease Putin’s Grip on Europe

•   Bloomberg: Chip Delivery Times Shrank in August, But Some Shortages Drag On

•   Bloomberg: China to Add More Coal Plants Than Thought to Ease Energy Crunch

•   Bloomberg: Transcript: Ezra Klein on the New Supply-Side Economics

•   Bloomberg: Work From Home Is Loved Wor

•   Reuters: Exclusive: German economy ministry reviews measures to curb China business

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Greece to repay euro zone bailout loans early for first time

•   Reuters: India power demand growth rate seen nearly doubling in next five years

•   Reuters: Green hydrogen needs policy push to reach required scale -report

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. ban on Nvidia, AMD chips seen boosting Chinese rivals

•   Reuters: Analysis: Putin's energy gamble may prove a double-edged sword for Russia

•   Reuters: Analysis: Rebounding real yields spell trouble for U.S. stocks

•   Reuters: Analysis: China debt restructuring policy under scrutiny as more countries demand relief

•   Reuters: Analysis: UK energy plan puts investors, banks in tough net-zero spot

•   Reuters: Analysis: Asia's southern flank shines in fight vs surging dollar

•   CNN: White House is not considering further releases of emergency oil at this time, official says

•   CNBC: Shipping rates are still falling, in another sign that a global recession may be coming

•   CNBC: India’s PM Modi says he’s keen to boost ties with Russia, including energy

•   CNBC: The Japanese yen’s plunge is the most ‘textbook-driven’ currency move in 30 years, analyst says

•   CNBC: The clean hydrogen energy economy was a dream. The climate bill could make it a reality this decade

•   SCMP: China’s foreign firms, struggling to survive, hunker down for whatever comes next

•   SCMP: China property crisis: plunging profits leave developers struggling to generate enough cash to service their loans

•   SCMP: Exclusive | China, Israel free-trade deal, Beijing’s first in Middle East, in ‘last stages’ amid troubles with US

•   SCMP: China’s yuan dilemma: Beijing ‘faces a choice’ between cutting rates and a weakening currency

•   SCMP: Tesla’s Shanghai factory nearly triples output, as China sales total beats Nio, Xpeng and Li Auto put together

•   Nikkei Asia: Solid-state batteries: Japanese players seek early lead in testing

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan raises concern over U.S. eligibility rules on EV subsidies

•   Nikkei Asia: South Korean arms find interest in Europe amid Ukraine war

•   Economic Times: Wage growth squeeze emerging as bigger worry in India: India Ratings

•   매경(P1): "돈이 남아돌아"…전교생 32명인데 교사 더 뽑아 15명

•   매경: 사막 위 낙원·블록체인 활용 레저도시…신흥국들 야심찬 도전

•   매경: 미래도시는 '쩐의 전쟁'…각국 정부 투자유치 총력전

•   매경: 尹 인생책 쓴 세계적 석학 일침 "한국의 진짜 문제는 OOOO"

•   매경: 5%대 은행채 몰려온다…자산가들 눈독

•   한경(P1): 경제 전문가 10명 중 9명 "올해 안에 환율 1400원 넘는다"

•   한경: 환율 방어 '묘수' 없는 정부, 5대 딜레마

•   한경: "다른 통화보다 덜 떨어져"…원화 추락 기름 부은 당국

•   한경(P1): [단독] "일단 질러"…시총 6000억 회사에 142조 '묻지마 베팅'

•   한경(P1): 인구절벽이 낳은 산업트렌드…글로벌화·無人화·고급화

•   한경: 518m 라인에 오가는 직원 3~5명…무인공장 전환 가속

•   한경: "한국선 더 이상 힘들다"…삼성·현대차 줄줄이 해외로

•   한경: 100만원짜리 명품도 척척…부모들 씀씀이 더 커졌다

•   한경: [단독] 내년 우유값 한 번에 300~500원 오른다…'역대급'

•   한경: 예금보험공사 사장에 유재훈 유력

•   한경: '노벨경제학상' 숄즈 美 교수 "금융시장 '꼬리 위험' 대비해야"

•   한경: 韓·美·日, 반도체·희토류 '핵심물자' 주고받는다

•   한경: '18mm 이하' 얇은 노트북 통했다…삼성·애플 또 꺾은 LG

•   서경(P1): 한은의 경고…韓美 금리 역전 기간 더 오래가고 폭도 더 커진다

※   한국은행: 「통화신용정책보고서」(2022년 9월)

•   서경(P1): 韓美 '전기차 보조금' 논의 물꼬…협의채널 정식 가동

•   서경: "한미 동맹의 배신" 여론 들끓자…美 USTR도 별도 채널 개설 합의

•   서경: 벤츠·샤넬백 주더니 이젠 현금까지…미분양 공포 고육지책

•   서경: 금리 뛰자…서민금융에 반년새 25조 몰렸다

•   서경: 2030년 폐배터리 시장 26배 급성장…건설·화학사도 ‘출사표’

•   서경: 코로나19 대응 국가지출 비용 2년 6개월간 7조 5887억

•   서경: "입주예정일 맞추려면 손해 불가피" 툭하면 파업에 건설현장 비상

•   서경: 장기전세 '상생주택' 짓는 서울시, 2025년 첫 공급

•   조선(P1): 힌남노 후폭풍… 배추·갈치값 30% 껑충

•   조선: 군산형 일자리? 만든 전기차는 겨우 1400대

•   조선: 자재값 치솟아… 주택착공 30% 줄고 GTX공사 지연

•   조선: 검찰, 네이버 기소… ‘부동산 정보 제공 갑질’ 혐의

•   조선: TSMC, 삼성전자 제치고 반도체 1위 전망

•   조선비즈: 제프리 삭스 컬럼비아대 교수 “美 인플레이션 극복에 3년 더 필요”

•   조선비즈: 30대 그룹 시총 올해 245조원 증발… LG·한화·현대重은 웃었다

•   조선비즈: 역대 최강 성능 애플 아이폰14… 잘 팔릴수록 삼성·LG 웃는다

•   조선비즈: 규제 완화 기대감 물씬… 저축은행·캐피탈, 온투업 투자에 ‘눈길’

•   조선비즈: 산업계, 지붕 뚫린 환율에 비상… 반도체·車·조선은 ‘미소’

•   조선비즈: [추석 이후 부동산]① 서울 집값 거래절벽 속 약보합 이어진다… “내년 4월이 변곡점일 가능성”

•   조선비즈: 산업은행, 대우조선해양 컨설팅 막바지… “민간 매각이 기본 입장”

•   조선비즈: 컨테이너선사, 운임 하락 막으려 ‘운항중지·감속’ 나서나

•   조선비즈: 美 전문가, IRA에 “한국 기업에 미국 투자 인센티브 제공하는 것”

•   조선비즈: ‘당분간 분석 손 뗍니다’...증권사 리서치가 포기한 기업은

•   인베스트조선: 중견 건설사, 신용도 하향 압박…롯데·현산도 '리스크' 커졌다

•   동아(P1): [르포]“작업복이 가장 귀한 옷” 쌍용차의 남다른 추석

•   동아(P1): 정부 “이산가족, 사라지기 전 해결을” 北에 회담 제안

•   문화: 노동시장 이중구조 개편 조선업계 중심 논의 시작

•   문화: 효율·안정성 높이는 핵융합로 신기술 발견

•   국민: 1년 vs 하루… 공정위, 불공정 조사 착수 ‘편향성’ 논란

•   국민: [관가뒷담] 박봉·격무 못 견뎌 ‘민경채’도 짐 싼다

•   서울: 15억 초과 주택대출 안 푼다지만… 기재부 시기 두고 ‘끙끙’[경제 블로그]

•   한겨레(P1): [단독] 국무조정실, 전정권 임명한 기관장 있는 9개 기관 감사

•   한겨레: 11년차 월급 195만원인데…공무직 인상률 2.2%에 반발

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 포항제철소 고로, 10일부터 재가동

•   아시아경제(P1): 내년 취약계층 지원에 74.4兆 투입…추경호 "사회적 약자 보호, 국가 책무"

•   아시아경제: 韓 수출효자 '서버용D램' 도미노 타격오나

•   이데일리(P1): '1기 신도시 특별법' 내년 2월 발의…국토부·지자체, 마스터플랜 수립 '투트랙'

•   이데일리: 1기 신도시·정부 상설협의체 구성…마스터플래너가 재정비 총괄 지휘

•   이데일리: 떠나는 조성욱 공정위원장…“온플법 폐기·지주회사과 폐지 아쉬워”

•   연합: 오후 9시 전국 6만6542명 확진…어제보다 3450명 적어

•   SBS: [단독] "국책은행 알짜 거래처들 시중은행에 넘겨라"

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Michael Spence): Whither the ESG Revolution?

•   Project Syndicate(Daniel Gros): How Europe Can Manage Without Russian Gas

•   Project Syndicate(Alessio Terzi): Green Development Is Now the Only Option

•   Project Syndicate(Shang-Jin Wei): The Risk of Competitive Interest-Rate Hikes

•   FT(Editorial Board): Liz Truss’s expensive energy lifeline

•   FT(Gillian Tett): Brussels ignores derivatives at its peril amid energy crisis

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): Governments cannot afford to ignore a wealth tax

•   FT(John Plender): The Great Reversal into a higher inflation environment

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Quality vs value, America vs Europe

•   FT(Richard Waters): The tech slowdown starts to bite

•   FT(John Thornhill): It’s time to hit the accelerator on the energy transition

•   FT(Simon Kuper): We’re moving into a more optimistic era for climate action

•   FT(Helen Thomas): Truss unleashes cash and unknowns with energy package

•   FT(Kwasi Kwarteng): UK has to be honest about the cost of energy assistance

•   FT(Lex): Energy crisis: Truss must bust the link between renewables and gas

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Russia’s Ukraine Setbacks

•   WSJ(Jason Furman): Inflation and the Scariest Economics Paper of 2022

•   WSJ(Joseph C. Sternberg): The Coming Global Crisis of Climate Policy

•   WSJ(Lars Erik Schönander, Geoffrey Cain): China Is Buying the Farm

•   WP(Josh Rogin): Putin is trying to build a new axis of autocrats

•   WP(Megan McArdle): Can California’s electric-car mandate survive future heat waves?

•   WP(Garry Kasparov, Michael McFaul): The sanctions against Russia still have holes. Here’s how to plug them.

•   Bloomberg(Bill Dudley): The Fed Has Learned Its Money-Market Lessons

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Looking Past Next Inflation Report

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Strong Dollar Defies Other Central Banks, But Europe's Fate Depends on Gas Price

•   Bloomberg(Julian Lee): Russian Oil Price Cap May Give China, India Huge Bargaining Power: Julian Lee

•   Bloomberg(Leonid Bershidsky): Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Shows Time Isn’t on Putin’s Side

•   CNN(Gad Levanon): We could see slow economic growth for the rest of the decade

•   헤럴드경제(박환용): 270만호 주택공급 실현방안에 거는 기대