Global Economic Monitor 220908

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street reaches four-week highs as bond yields drop

※   Energy stocks follow drop in oil

※   Fed's Beige Book said price pressures still persistent

※   Fed Chair Powell to speak Thursday

※   Dow up 1.4%, S&P 500 up 1.84%, Nasdaq up 2.14%

•   UK: Pound sinks as markets digest scale of Truss’s economic challenge

•   China: China Sets Yuan Fix at Strongest Bias on Record as Losses Mount

•   Japan: Yen hits new lows even after Japan steps up verbal intervention

•   Oil: Oil prices fall on global economic fears despite Opec+ output cut

•   Natural gas: Europe Gas Extends Losses as Politicians Rush to Contain Crisis

•   Metals: Aluminium slides on strong dollar and demand outlook

•   Grains: Wheat rallies on concerns about Ukraine exports; profit-taking pressures corn, soy

•   Cryptocurrency: Crypto Market Drops Below $1 Trillion, Bitcoin Nears 2022 Low

•   한국: 코스피, 강달러에 2,400 무너져 2,370대 마감…외국인 '팔자'

•   한국: '통제불능' 원화값, 엔화 이어 하락폭 두번째

※   매경: 달러당 원화값 1400원도 위협 받는데…외환시장 손놓은 정부

※   조선: “高환율, 외환위기로 번질 가능성은 낮아”

[Indicators]

•   US Jul. Balance of trade: U.S. Trade Deficit Shrank in July

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Mortgage demand drops further as interest rates shoot back to June high

•   Eurozone Q2 GDP(rev.): Euro-Zone Economy Grew More Than Estimated in Second Quarter

•   UK Aug. House prices: UK House Prices Rise Led By Surge in London, Halifax Says

•   China Aug. Balance of trade: Exports, the Engine of China’s Slowing Economy, Are Sputtering

※   The weakness in August shows impact of rising inflation and slowing global growth

•   China Aug. Foreign reserves: China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Drop to Near Four-Year Low

•   한국 6월 은행지주회사 및 은행 BIS기준 자본비율: 국내은행 BIS비율 하락…자본적정성은 양호

•   한국 7월 경상수지: 믿었던 상품수지마저…10년 만에 '적자 전환'

[News]

•   WSJ: Fed on Path for Another 0.75-Point Interest-Rate Lift After Powell’s Inflation Pledge

※   Fed officials face questions over how high to lift rates by year’s end and how fast to get there

•   WSJ: Lael Brainard Says Fed Rate Rises Will Bring Down Inflation

•   WSJ: Fed’s Mester Says More Rate Rises are Needed Amid Inflation Surge

•   WSJ: Businesses Expect Economy to Lose More Steam, Fed’s Beige Book Says

※   Fed’s contacts see demand ebbing over coming year amid elevated prices and rising interest rates

※   Fed: Beige Book - September 7, 2022

•   WSJ: The Case for a Soft Landing: How High Inflation Could End Without Recession

•   WSJ: Putin Threatens to Abandon Grain Deal, Further Squeeze Energy Supplies

※   Russian leader suggests Moscow could pull out of a U.N.-brokered agreement that has allowed for the large-scale export of Ukrainian grain

•   WSJ: Russia Destroyed Mariupol. Now It’s Using It for Propaganda.

•   WSJ: Ukrainian Troops Advance in East as Kyiv Seizes the Initiative

•   WSJ: EU Plans $5 Billion Loan for Ukraine

•   WSJ: Gas Prices Can Rev Up Spending Again

•   WSJ: Democrats Are Set to Narrow Their Priorities for Short-Term Spending Bill

•   WSJ: Iran Expands Nuclear Program as Talks to Revive 2015 Deal Falter

•   WSJ: Fed’s Top Banking Regulator Signals Tougher Merger Reviews, ‘Living Wills’

•   WSJ: China Evergrande’s Stake in Regional Bank Sold for $1.05 Billion

•   WSJ: Apple’s iPhone 14 Lineup Headlines Wednesday Product Event

•   WSJ: Netflix Hunts for Cost Cuts, From Cloud Computing to Corporate Swag

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Allowed to Amend Twitter Countersuit to Add Whistleblower Claims

•   WSJ: Struggling EV Startups Won’t Get a Tesla Rebound

•   NYT: Clean Energy Projects Surge After Climate Bill Passage

•   NYT: How Will Ukraine Rebuild (and Who Should Pay)?

•   NYT: Europe Says Putin’s Gas Power Is Weakening

•   NYT: How Russian Gas in Europe Is Dwindling

•   NYT: China’s ‘Zero Covid’ Bind: No Easy Way Out Despite the Cost

•   NYT: From the U.S. to China, Major Economies Are Stalling. But Not India.

•   NYT: The Supply Chain Broke. Robots Are Supposed to Help Fix It.

•   WP: Material on foreign nation’s nuclear capabilities seized at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago

•   WP: The Middle East is warming up twice as fast as the rest of the world

•   FT: EU seeks windfall tax trigger well below market rate

※   Brussels wants to hit non-gas power generators with new levy to help households through energy crisis

•   FT: The G7 price cap could make the energy crisis worse

•   FT: Germany turns to coal for a third of its electricity

•   FT: What do we want? Crisis resolution! When do we want it? Now!

•   FT: How do household energy bills compare across Europe?

•   FT: Russia’s melancholy oligarchs

•   FT: Biden warns Truss not to rip up Northern Ireland protocol

•   FT: Truss on collision course with BoE over boosting economy

•   FT: Interest rate rises likely despite energy bill freeze says Bank of England

•   FT: China’s pandemic workers reach breaking point

•   FT: China’s biggest four banks feel property pinch from failing loans

•   FT: China pushes ahead with Indonesia’s largest hydro-plant project

•   FT: Bolsonaro rallies supporters with show of military force in Rio de Janeiro

•   FT: Argentina pledges help to ease global food and energy shortages

•   FT: Non-fungible Treasuries and financial risk

•   FT: European metals industry warns of ‘existential threat’

•   FT: Pressure builds for emergency EU action to save metals industry

•   FT: EU to impose tough new rules on ‘internet of things’ product makers

•   Bloomberg: Economic Anxiety is Key Theme of Words Added to 2022 Dictionary

•   Bloomberg: US Starts Broad Economic Talks With 13 Nations to Counter China

•   Bloomberg: US Consumers See Home Prices Falling for First Time Since 2020

•   Bloomberg: Fast EU Deal on Fiscal Rules Would Cheer Markets, Gentiloni Says

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Winter Gas Shortages Set to Last at Least Until 2025

•   Bloomberg: Citi Says High Europe Gas Prices to Stay Until Later in Decade

•   Bloomberg: Biden-Truss Era Dawns With Caution, Doubt, Silence on Trade

•   Bloomberg: Winter Nuclear Shutdowns Will Pose First Big Test for UK Grid

•   Bloomberg: Cost of Living Concern for British Consumers Rose to Record High

•   Bloomberg: BOE Rate-Hike Impact on Economy Is Yet to Hit, Tenreyro Warns

•   Bloomberg: Chengdu Extends Lockdown in Most Areas to Curb Covid Spread

•   Bloomberg: China’s Xi Has Broad Support for Continued Rule, Envoy Says

•   Bloomberg: More US Lawmakers Visit Taiwan as Shows of Support Rise

•   Bloomberg: Fed Effect Stirs Global FX Moves as Mighty Dollar Runs Rampant

•   Bloomberg: Wall Street Seeks Clues on ECB Plans for $5 Trillion Bond Pile

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Largest Asset Manager Says It’s Time to Cut Equities

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Strategists Warn Stocks Yet to Make ‘Decisive’ Low

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas at Odds Over Asia Earnings Outlook

•   Bloomberg: Oil Boom Falls Flat in Region With a Fifth of World’s Reserves

•   Bloomberg: Covid Zero Throttles Chinese Oil Demand Before Key Congress

•   Bloomberg: China Builder Briefs Creditors on $6 Billion Offshore Debt Plan

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Summer of Record Solar Power Saved Billions of Euros

•   Reuters: Ukraine's top general warns of Russian nuclear strike risk

•   Reuters: BOJ to keep low rates even as inflation seen hitting 3% - ex-c.bank policymaker

•   Reuters: Top European bankers warn on recession, China and U.S. banks

•   Reuters: Analysis: Sterling returns to the 1980s, and it may get cheaper still

•   Reuters: Analysis: Europe's banks dim lights as they brace for winter blackout

•   Reuters: Analysis: UK heads for return to "trickle-down" economics under low-tax Truss

•   CNBC: Nomura cuts its China GDP forecast — again

•   CNBC: This chip stock has convincingly beaten its peers this year – and analysts think it can go higher

•   SCMP: China population: pension burden in the spotlight as more than a third of provinces have 20 per cent of population aged above 60

•   SCMP: Xi Jinping calls for China to ‘push for a green, low carbon lifestyle’ amid self-sufficiency drive

•   SCMP: Shanghai’s housing market rebounds as banks quicken loan approvals amid lower mortgage rates, spurring demand

•   SCMP: Nio sees silver lining, predicting 32 per cent growth in third-quarter EV deliveries even if China’s slowdown deters most buyers

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: In cryptic lingo, Premier Li says rivers only flow forward

•   매경(P1): 하루 500억 손실인데 복구시점 '미정'…포항제철소 초유의 올스톱

•   매경: 포항제철소, 국내 철강 35% 생산…조선·車·건설업에 직격탄

•   매경(P1): 복지장관 후보자에 조규홍

•   매경: 기재부 출신 재정·예산통…연금·건보재정 개혁 속도낼듯

•   매경: '오일머니' 사우디와 2파전…부산, 탄소중립 기후기술로 승부수

•   매경: 감사원 "권익위가 감사 지연시켜"

•   매경: "주담대 15억 규제 안푼다" 선긋는 추경호

•   매경: 임원 50명 불러 9시간 회의한 대기업 회장님…무슨 얘기 나눴길래

•   매경: 해외서 잘 나가는 이 회사들, 한국오면 절반은 불법이라는데

•   매경: 이 불황에…배터리·반도체장비·조선 수주 '쑥'

•   매경: "급매가가 시세라고 보면 돼요"…집값 하락이 바꿔놨다

•   매경: '재산세 30% 상한' 주택 크게 줄어

•   매경: [MK BUSINESS STORY] 세계경제 융단폭격에 산업구조 완전히 재편돼…지식산업 위주로 판 다시 짜라

•   매경: [Science in Biz] 환경규제 혁신 나선 정부, 화평법 손질이 첫 단추

•   매경: [비즈니스 이노베이션] 獨 천연가스 대란의 교훈…중국산 원자재 의존도 낮춰라

•   한경(P1): [단독] 코로나로 물꼬 튼 원격의료…다시 막는 野

•   한경(P1): 현대차-KT, 7500억 규모 지분 맞교환

•   한경: 무역보험 한도 상향…230조원→260조원으로

•   한경: 미뤄지는 대표연설·연금특위…여당 내홍에, 일 못하는 국회

•   한경: 삼성에 갑질했던 브로드컴…"계약 강제 않겠다"

※   공정위: 브로드컴의 동의의결 개시 신청에 대한 심의결과

•   한경: 스타트업들 트윗 7000여건 들여다보니…최대 화두는 '돈 가뭄'

•   한경: 증권사 '매수 보류' 의견 속출…"사실상 팔란 뜻"

•   한경: 증시 내리막 걷자…공매도 다시 껑충

•   한경: "완전 씨가 말랐다"…서울 분양권 거래 0건 '역대급 사태'

•   한경TV: [단독] "11월부터 펀드·DLS 실시간 감시"

•   서경: 칩4, 초격차 지렛대로 활용…日과 손잡고 '점진적 脫중국' 스텝을

•   서경: '탈중국 걸림돌' IRA 해결 속도내는 정부

•   서경: 정교한 '對中전략' 없인 또 실패…기업들 '중국 징비록' 만들어야

•   서경: 대기업집단 23곳, 해외계열사로 그룹 지배력 강화

※   공정위: 2022년 공시대상기업집단 주식소유현황 분석·공개

•   서경: 카카오, 금융복합그룹 지정 초읽기

•   서경: 15일부터 안심전환대출…"혼란 막아라" 은행들 분주

•   서경: 이복현 "성실상환자 산소호흡기 떼는 건 바람직하지 않아"

•   서경: '과기 5대 강국' 만든다더니…예산·조직·자율성 모두 지지부진

•   서경: 계속 오르네…‘라면에 김밥 한 줄’ 시키기도 겁난다

•   서경: "SK하이닉스, 낸드 사업 불확실성 확대…목표가 11% 하향"

•   서경: “이러니 분양 시장 힘 못쓰지”… 전국 17곳 중 13곳, 평당 분양가 > 매매가

•   조선: 외국인 한국투자 15% 감소… 전경련 “미국·프랑스처럼 정부가 나서야”

•   조선: 최저임금 ‘업종별 차등 적용’ 첫 헌재 심판대 오른다

•   조선: “러 원유 가격상한제 동참땐 심각한 결과” 러시아, 한국에 경고

•   조선: “긴축 태풍에 대비”… 기업들, 자산·지분 팔아 현금 쌓는다

•   조선: 저성과자 해고 쉽게… 국내 유럽기업들 건의

•   조선: 한달 남은 대출, 연장 신청했더니 벌써 오른 금리 적용됐네

•   조선: 1년만에 재개된 시장조성制 ‘찬바람’ 증권사들 외면 왜?

•   조선비즈: 韓 위협하는 中 반도체굴기, 美 제재에도 매출 22% 껑충

•   조선비즈: “재건축 하세월”… 다시 탄력 받은 노후 아파트 리모델링

•   조선비즈: 부동산R114 “올해 전국 아파트값, 9년 만에 하락할 듯”

•   조선비즈: 금융위, CB·BW 이어 상환전환우선주도 리픽싱·콜옵션 규제 강화

•   조선비즈: 전력도매값, 또 사상 최고치… 한전 적자 30조원 넘을수도

•   조선비즈: 불붙은 예금금리 경쟁… 정작 소비자는 체감 어려워

•   조선비즈: 강석훈 산은 회장, 직원 반발에 부산 이전 설명회도 못열어

•   조선비즈: [르포] 매일 2만개 해외직구 상품 X-레이 검사… 한진 새 먹거리 ‘글로벌 물류센터’

•   중앙: 바람 많은 곳이 '황금어장'이었다…정부 손 놓자 K풍력 헛돌판

•   중앙: M&A, 기업은 급한데…정작 공정위 심사인력은 日의 14%뿐

•   중앙: 김주현 “세계 긴축에 성장 위축…한국 대외신인도는 양호”

•   중앙: 백악관 “전기차 보조금 문제 심각성 이해, 조속히 풀어가자”

•   JTBC: [단독] 보조금 차별해놓고…미 "한국이 오히려 세금 이익 본다"

•   동아: 환율 1400원 초읽기… “달러예금 가입 고객 평소보다 6배 늘어”

•   동아: 가스값 상승, 겨울 물가자극 우려… 정부 대책 비상

•   동아: KDI “경기 회복세 약화… 하방 압력 커져”

※   KDI: KDI 경제동향 2022. 9

•   서울(P1): 유명무실 정부委 39% ‘원샷 퇴출’

•   서울: 소상공인 대출 5번째 연장에… 금융권 “이자 유예는 빚폭탄 키울 것”

•   경향: 한은 “물가 오름세 예상보다 오래 지속될 수도”

※   한국은행: 고인플레이션 지속가능성 점검

•   머니투데이: 공포의 슈퍼달러가 온다..."환율 1500원 충격 각오해야"

•   머니투데이: [단독]사무처-위원회 이원화, 공정위 조직 개편한다

•   머니투데이: [단독]공무원연금 수익률 악화…"금리 인상" 채권투자 말려도 무시했다

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 9개 부처·25개 인허가에 7년 대기는 기본 돌지않는 한국 풍력발전 [헤럴드 뷰]

•   아시아경제(P1): '담대한 구상' 시동…尹정부, 대북 민간 지원물자 반출 첫 승인

•   아시아경제: [킹달러의 폭격] 외환보유액 충분 vs 부족…뜨거운 적정성 논란

•   아시아경제: [킹달러의 폭격]환율 쇼크에 비상 걸린 항공·철강사들

•   아시아경제: [킹달러의 폭격]통화선도·스와프 등 환헷지 적극 나선 국내기업…"수출도 곧 헤지"

•   아시아경제: [단독]한전, 中산시성 석탄발전…수천억 적자에 매각 차질

•   디지털타임스: 역시 힘센 부처는 다르네… 기재·행안부 중앙동 입주

•   디지털타임스: 물가 정점 찍었나… 물가채 거래 `시들`

•   디지털타임스: 미분양 쌓이는데… 분양가 오르는 `원자재 가격의 역설`

•   디지털타임스: "원청 책임 명기·임금 체계 개편 나서야" 대우조선해양 사태 목소리 높이는 민주

•   이데일리(P1): 국토부, LH 등 산하기관…사업 축소하고 자회사도 정리

•   이데일리(P1): VCC로 펀드 자율성 확보…상법으로 소액주주 보호

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 6만9992명 확진…어제보다 1만2252명 줄어

•   연합: 한국, 전기차 수출 세계 4위…1~3위는 독일·미국·중국

•   연합인포맥스: 추경호 "가계부채, 금융시장 건전성 해칠 정도 부실 아냐"

•   KBS: [단독] 제주 해상에도 대규모 풍력사업 추진

•   더팩트: [단독] 카카오페이, 허위 사이트에 결제 서비스 제공…소비자 피해 속출

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성 '평택 P3' 가동 낸드 초격차 굳힌다

•   전자신문: "韓 OLED 경력자에 연봉 2배"…中 패널업체, 기술 탈취 '꼼수'

•   전자신문: '중소기업 80% 대기업과 양극화 심각 수준'...경청 조사

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Saleem H. Ali): The G7’s Energy Awakening

•   Project Syndicate(Gaspard Estrada): Brazil Needs a United Anti-Bolsonaro Front

•   Project Syndicate(Lucrezia Reichlin): The Italian Right Is Coming

•   Project Syndicate(Daron Acemoglu): The End of Real Social Networks

•   Project Syndicate(Tomicah Tillemann): What Is Web3 Good For?

•   FT(Editorial Board): Pakistan’s perfect storm is an urgent call to action

•   FT(Tony Barber): A forceful ECB rate rise may fail to curb market tensions

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The risk to earnings

•   FT(Andrew Hill): Why the future of ESG is at a crossroads

•   FT(John Redwood): How short term will global inflation be?

•   FT(Alan Beattie): The wartime economic interventions that risk losing the peace

•   FT(Ezekiel Emanuel): China’s zero-Covid policy is self-defeating

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Germany’s Nuclear Power Half-Step

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Walmart Takes On Lina Khan

•   WSJ(Mark Skousen): Who Was That Masked Economist?

•   NYT(Peter Coy): This Is the Kind of Storytelling That Economics Needs

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Stock Market Investors Best Keep Their Bullish Impulses in Check

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Can Truss Make the Shorts Look Silly? Just Maybe

•   Bloomberg(Jared Dillian): It's a Housing Slump, Not a Crisis

•   Bloomberg(Therese Raphael): Liz Truss’s High-Wire Plan Could Actually Avert a UK Recession

•   CNN(Matt Egan): Billionaire: The Fed won't say it out loud, but it really wants a higher unemployment rate

•   MarketWatch(Peter Morici): Opinion: Why inflation is so tough to tame

•   Fox Business(Larry Kudlow): Biden took a booming economy without inflation and turned it into a high-inflation bust

•   매경(유효상): 론스타, 그 불편한 진실

•   한겨레(박복영): 환율 1380원, 탈탄소가 필요한 또 하나의 이유

•   머니투데이(이병윤): 美 긴축기조 강경 대비해야