Global Economic Monitor 220531

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: World stocks turn positive in May on Fed bets

※   Oil prices hit their highest in over two months

•   Metals: Low inventories fuel zinc's climb to three-week high

•   Lumber: Lumber Prices Slump With Rising Interest Rates

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Rallies Above $30,000 as China Eases Covid Curbs

•   한국: 美 물가 '정점 통과' 기대…주가·원화·채권 '트리플 강세'

[Indicators]

•   Eurozone May Economic sentiment: Euro zone sentiment barely changed in May, inflation expectations ease

•   Germany May CPI: German inflation hits an all-time high

•   Japan Apr. Car production: Japan carmakers output falls 21% in April, hit by China lockdowns

•   한국 4월 국세수입: 4월까지 세수 168조, 작년보다 34.5조 늘었다

•   한국 4월 사업체 노동력: 물가에 월급봉투도 얇아졌다…대기업 80만원 오를 때 中企 9만원 올라

•   한국 4월 유통업체 매출: 4월 유통업체 매출 10.6% 증가... 온·오프라인 동반 성장

•   한국 4월 주택통계: 월세, 전세 추월했다…4월 임대차 거래 중 50.4%가 '월세'

[News]

•   WSJ: Russian Forces Push Into Pivotal City in Eastern Ukraine

•   WSJ: Bombed Bridges, Closed Ports Keep Ukrainian Grain From a World That Needs It

•   WSJ: China and the U.S. Are Arranging an In-Person Meeting Between Heads of Defense

•   WSJ: Fed Official Supports Raising Interest Rates at Fast Clip ‘for Several Meetings’

※   Governor Christopher Waller says he doesn’t favor stepping back from half-percentage-point rate rises until clear evidence of inflation slowdown

•   WSJ: Biden to Meet With Fed’s Powell to Discuss Economy

•   WSJ: Summer Worker Shortage Means Things Will Be Closed. Again.

•   WSJ: Europe’s Bid to Kick Russian Natural Gas Faces Opposition

•   WSJ: China’s Slowdown Poses Credibility Test for Economic Data

•   WSJ: China Sees Action on Deal With Pacific Island Nations Deferred

※   Fiji summit ends without comprehensive accord amid concerns that proposal could give Beijing too much regional sway

•   WSJ: While Electric Vehicles Proliferate, Charging Stations Lag Behind

•   WSJ: Companies Start to Lean More on Cost Savings Amid Persistent Inflation

•   WSJ: Companies Rush to Cash In on EPA Rules for Capturing Methane Emissions

•   WSJ: Shipping Companies Added Capacity, but Now Containers Are Stuck in Port

•   WSJ: How to Design a Product That Is Easy to Repair

•   NYT: An embargo would bruise Russia’s oil industry, but for now it is doing fine.

•   NYT: As Ukraine Fights, Does the E.U. Owe It Membership?

•   NYT: U.S. Retakes Top Spot in Supercomputer Race

•   FT: EU leaders agree plan for partial Russian oil ban

※   Agreement to include temporary exemption for supplies via pipeline to bring Hungary on board

•   FT: Biden rules out sending weapons to Ukraine that can strike inside Russia

•   FT: Putting an end to Merkantilism

•   FT: Quarter-point rate rises will be ECB’s ‘benchmark’, says chief economist

※   Philip Lane rebuffs hawkish calls for swifter normalisation of monetary policy as German inflation hits record 8.7%

•   FT: EDF rules out extension of nuclear plant to secure UK winter supplies

•   FT: Vietnam easier to reach after return to pre-Covid travel rules

•   FT: The Bank of Viktor Orbán

•   FT: Why Africa’s first Covid vaccine factory struggles to find customers

•   FT: Qualcomm eager to invest in Arm alongside rivals in upcoming IPO

•   FT: SoftBank cuts top executives’ pay after Vision Fund posts record loss

•   Bloomberg: Russia Readies New Bond-Payment Plan in Bid to Avoid Default

•   Bloomberg: EU summit will not decide on gas price cap - EU Commissioner

•   Bloomberg: UK’s Jubilee Bank Holiday May Nudge Economy Into a Contraction

•   Bloomberg: Five Key Threats for Boris Johnson With Tory Rebels on Maneuvers

•   Bloomberg: Shanghai Takes Biggest Steps Toward Reopening in Two Months

•   Bloomberg: China’s Covid Outbreak Wanes as Curbs Eased to Boost Economy

•   Bloomberg: India’s Economy Likely Lost Speed on Virus Curbs Before War

•   Bloomberg: India Inflation Fight, Monsoon May Take Pressure Off RBI, Former Deputy Governor Says

•   Bloomberg: Modi Government’s Popularity at Highest Since Start of Pandemic

•   Bloomberg: China’s Reopening Plans Spark Rally in Consumer Stocks, Yuan

•   Bloomberg: China in Danger of Exporting Fresh Inflation Turmoil: MLIV Pulse

•   Bloomberg: China Goes All Out to Harvest Wheat to Blunt Inflation Threat

•   Bloomberg: Iran’s Seizure of Greek Tankers Adds Risk on Key Oil Route

•   Bloomberg: This Is the Space Station China is Building to Challenge the US

•   Bloomberg: Inventory Levels Seen Ballooning as Companies Turn Cautious

•   Bloomberg: Deep Under the Ocean, a Fresh Source of Green Power Takes Shape

•   Bloomberg: China Is on Track to Double Its Solar Panels From Last Year’s Record

•   Bloomberg: Small Nuclear Reactors Won’t Avoid the Problem of Radioactive Waste

•   Reuters: Unlikely monkeypox outbreak will lead to pandemic, WHO says

•   Reuters: Europe's dash for gas puts Australia's LNG import plans at risk

•   Reuters: Japan Q2, full-year growth to be weaker than previously estimated- Reuters Poll

•   Reuters: Japan govt drops timeframe for budget balancing target

•   Reuters: India aims to cut power output from at least 81 coal-fired plants over 4 years

•   Reuters: How a cheap component could help kill off combustion cars

•   Reuters: Analysis: Russians feel little economic pain now, long-term outlook darkens

•   Reuters: Analysis: Turkey's recurring currency nightmare strikes again

•   Reuters: Analysis: Safe as houses? Rising rates test foundations of property boom

•   Reuters: Analysis: How the Ukraine conflict is reshaping global oil markets

•   CNBC: Global recession? Not yet, economists say — but brace for high prices, low growth

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Shanghai’s symptomatic cases fall to single digit as city resumes public transport and prepares to ease citywide lockdown

•   SCMP: Exclusive | China a ‘very important customer’, says Saudi Arabia, as global oil supply worries grow

•   SCMP: China urged to deepen Asean ties as US becomes India’s biggest trading partner

•   SCMP: China’s coronavirus lockdowns and slowing economy pushing job-hungry graduates overseas as poor students get left behind

•   SCMP: Elon Musk gives ringing endorsement to China’s global lead in renewable energy and electric vehicles on Twitter and Weibo

•   SCMP: Cash crisis amid China’s stalling economy: rural banks freeze accounts, regulators playing ‘pass the parcel’

•   Caixin: Exclusive: Qualcomm Plans to Be in China for the Long Haul

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan consumers wait months for washing machines, air conditioners

•   Economic Times: Shopping, eating out surge after two washout years

•   Economic Times: Cheaper rice, atta bring relief amid inflation

•   Economic Times: Ahead of the Q4 GDP numbers, here's what the economists are saying

•   매경(P1): 관세 확 내려 밥상물가 잡는다…정부, 민생안정 10대 대책

※   기재부: 추경호 부총리, 제1차 경제관계장관회의 개최

•   매경: 관세카드 꺼낸 정부…돼지고기 20%, 커피원두 9% 싸진다

•   매경: 그랜저 한 대 사면 세금 91만원 덜낸다…車개소세 30% 감면 연장

•   매경: 1주택자 세부담 2년전 수준으로…마래푸 종부세, 113만원 감소

•   매경: 尹 "기업 1000조 투자, 규제 풀어 화답해야"

•   매경(P1): [단독] 재생에너지 다 쥐어짜도 상위 5社 전력 감당못해

•   매경: 수출기업 RE100 필수됐는데…재생에너지 못구할라 '전전긍긍'

•   매경: RE100 순항중인 해외기업…"넘치는 재생에너지 인프라 덕분"

•   매경(P1): 코스닥 간 코넥스기업 공모가 밑으로

•   매경: 올 신규상장 단 1곳…거래대금 코스닥 0.04%

•   매경: "특수관계인 범위 줄이자"…국힘, 尹 발맞춰 기업규제 손본다

•   매경: 반도체 인력 긴급수혈…석·박사 정원 2배로

•   매경: 역대 최대 수출 전망에도…무역적자 26년來 최악 위기

※   산업연구원: 2022년 하반기 경제산업전망

•   매경: 韓日재계 "탄소중립·고령화 해법 함께 찾자"

•   매경: 3년만에 부활한 LG그룹 상반기 전략보고회

•   매경: 카카오 주4일 재택 '메타버스 근무제'…7월부터 도입하기로

•   매경: 올 가을이 무섭다…코로나 재유행에 독감까지 덮칠판

•   매경: "7000억 사업비를 메꿔야한다고?"…잠 못드는 둔촌주공 조합원들

•   매경: 수억대 작품 줄줄이 유찰…미술시장 '찬바람'

•   한경(P1): 적자 또 적자…車부품업계 '고사 직전'

•   한경: 전기차 부품 생산 가능한 기업은 2.3%뿐

•   한경: 현대차 美 조지아 신공장이 돌파구 될까

•   한경: "폐업 속출하고 있다…23만명 일자리 사라질 판" 비명

•   한경(P1): 이재용, 인텔 CEO와 '회동'…반도체 1·2위 수장 만났다

•   한경: 5G 통신 '6만원대 요금제' 3분기 출시

•   한경: '원전 경제성 조작' 정재훈 한수원 사장 결국 교체된다

•   한경: '스타트업 생태계' 키우는 현대차그룹

•   한경: 'A등급' 대기업, P-CBO 발행 러시

•   한경: "재건축 완화 늦을 것"…리모델링 72% 늘었다

•   한경TV: [단독] 13년 만의 '조 단위' 원전 수출, 무산 위기…러시아 변수

•   서경(P1): [시그널] 신산업서 소부장으로…VC 자금 10조 '대이동'

•   서경: 기술력·실적 쌓은 전통산업에 뭉칫돈…상장후 주가 88% 급등도

•   서경: IPO 침체에…쏘카·컬리 등 줄줄이 상장 연기

•   서경: "칩머니 의존한 10년…'스타트업 붐' 끝났다"

•   서경: [단독] 재정 지킬 '30년 전략' 연내 나온다…재정준칙·연금개혁안 담아

•   서경: 6월부터 화물차·택시·버스 경유보조금 ℓ당 50원 늘어난다

•   서경: 전세 4억 빌리면 이자 120만원…"차라리 월세 살래요"

•   서경: 노도강 영끌족 "내가 막차?"…다주택자 매물 쏟아진다

•   서경: [단독] 일진머티리얼즈 내달 초 매각 본격화…해외서도 관심

•   조선: 오미크론이 휩쓴 1~4월, 건강보험 1조7000억 적자

•   조선: 임금피크제 무효 판결에... 노조들, 추가 소송·교섭 준비

•   조선: “여름 코로나 재유행해도 규모 크지 않을 것”

•   조선: [단독] 새만금 태양광 부지, 오염 침출수 위험 방치

•   조선: “1년내 금융 충격 온다”예상 전문가, 6개월새 2배로 늘었다... 왜

•   조선비즈: 전문가 80% “물가 상승이 금융시장 최대 리스크”

※   한국은행: 2022년 상반기 시스템 리스크 서베이 결과

•   조선비즈: “서울 아파트도 절반이 미계약”… 민간임대시장 ‘찬바람’

•   조선비즈: 밀가루·버터·설탕 가격 자고나면 ‘껑충’… 동네빵집 “빵값 안 올리면 못 버텨”

•   조선비즈: “친환경 모빌리티 시대, 석유 대안은 바이오에탄올…탄소 저감 효과 탁월”

•   조선비즈: [단독] 기재부, 한국은행 일시 차입금 5兆 조달…‘손실 보전’ 재원 확보 차원

•   조선비즈: 동대문 옷 가게 사장님들도 ‘주 5일제’ 챙긴다… “이직률 줄고 매출도 지켜”

•   조선비즈: 태양광, 드디어 볕드나… 판매가격·수요 모두 상승

•   조선비즈: 통신 3사 5G 기지국 숙제 검사만 반년 걸릴 전망… 인력·시간 없어 난감한 정부

•   조선비즈: 지난해 韓 선원 월급 평균 497만원… 고령화 현상은 ‘심각’

•   조선비즈: 삼성, MX사업부 내부 점검…외부 리스크 선제 대응

•   인베스트조선: 길어지는 현대차 美 배터리 파트너십 협상…SK·LG 2파전 지속

•   동아(P1): 모임-데이트 통장, 모바일 앱으로… Z세대, 금융거래도 게임하듯 ‘톡톡’

•   동아: “원숭이두창, 국내 유입돼도 치명률 1% 미만”

•   문화: 갤럭시 언팩 8월 美 뉴욕… 4세대 Z플립·Z폴드 공개

•   문화: 한수원, 이집트 원전 최종계약 체결 임박

•   국민(P1): 김포공항 ‘이전’ 논란… 선거 막판 대형 변수로

•   국민: 스스로 주차하고 물건 쌓고… 산업에 스며든 완전자율 모빌리티

•   서울(P1): 신재생 발전 7.5%… 설비용량은 원전 첫 추월

•   한겨레: 수소법 개정안 통과에 어깨춤 추는 수소 기업들…그린 수소는 ‘아직’

•   경향(P1): ‘서민 대책’이라는데 ‘부자 감세’로 읽힌다

•   머니투데이(P1): [르포]"방사능이 시내보다 적어요"...꽃밭속 체코 원전 가보니

•   머니투데이: 5월에 벌써 작년수주 추월, SK는 어떻게 연료전지 강자가 됐나

•   디지털타임스(P1): 원희룡 "자잿값 상승분 공사비에 반영 추진"

•   디지털타임스: 추경 관리대상 사업 80% 한달내 집행

•   이데일리: 연금개혁 미루면 미래세대에 '폭탄'…"일본·스웨덴서 길 찾는다"

•   이데일리: 미국 호주에 있지만 한국에 없는 연금 백만장자…기대난망일까

•   이데일리: 퇴직연금 디폴트옵션 7월 도입…“연말 기업 규약 반영해야”

•   이데일리: "관심 가지면 노후 든든"…퇴직연금 스스로 운용하려면

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 1만6627명 확진…어제의 2.8배로 늘어

•   연합: 월세, 전세 추월했다…4월 임대차 거래 중 50.4%가 '월세'

•   연합: 내일부터 구글 인앱결제 강제 현실화…쿠키·캐시 가격 줄인상

•   연합: IEA "韓 전기차 인프라 세계 최고…충전기 1대당 전기차 2.6대"

•   전자신문: 원전 예타 이번 주 최종 결론…SMR·원전 해체 R&D 예산 '촉각'

•   전자신문: 산업부, 업계와 함께 국내 최초 '메타패션' 출시한다

•   전자신문: 네이버·카카오, '가상인간' 활용 보폭 넓힌다...기술 경쟁 치열

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Hans-Werner Sinn): How Global Food Crises Work

•   Project Syndicate(Jean Pisani-Ferry): The Eurozone’s Unusual Policy Playbook

•   Project Syndicate(Mark Leonard): The Decline and Fall of Davos Man

•   Project Syndicate(Kaushik Basu): Global Shortages Demand Global Solutions

•   Project Syndicate(Nikki Reisch, Lili Fuhr): Dismantling the Fossil-Fuel Economy at Stockholm+50

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): The west must hold its nerve on Ukraine

•   FT(Mohamed El-Erian): Private equity cannot avoid the reckoning in markets

•   WSJ(Joseph R. Biden Jr.): My Plan for Fighting Inflation

※   I won’t meddle with the Fed, but I will tackle high prices while guiding the economy’s transition to stable and steady growth.

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Biden’s Ukraine Ambivalence

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Colombia Tilts Toward Trouble

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Germany’s New Defense Deal

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Blinken’s Indo-Pacific Blueprint

•   WSJ(Elisabeth Braw): Poaching Putin’s Tech Workers as an Alternative to Sanctions

•   NYT(Zachary Karabell): Russia or China? The U.S. Has a Choice to Make.

•   NYT(Greg Bensinger): How Illinois Is Winning in the Fight Against Big Tech

•   WP(Editorial Board): It’s time for Biden to lift Trump’s China tariffs

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): When Crypto's Tulipmania Meets The Real Economy

•   Bloomberg(Mark Gilbert): Crypto Needs to Be Separated from the Real Economy

•   Reuters(John Kemp): Recession risk keeps funds cautious on oil despite sanctions

•   Nikkei Asia(Liam Gibson): Sanction semiconductors to deter China's Taiwan ambitions