Global Economic Monitor 220527

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: World shares climb, dollar falls on relief over Fed's flexible stance

•   Natural gas: Natural-Gas Prices Surge as Summer Cooling Season Switches On

•   Metals: Copper falls again as China struggles to lift COVID-hit economy

•   Grains: Rainy forecast pushes US soy to three-month high

•   한국: 코스피, 기준금리 인상 영향에 약보합 마감…반도체주 부진

•   한국: "메모리 시장 점유율 하락"…SK하이닉스 4% 급락

•   한국: "고난도 공정기술 증설"…탄력받는 소부장

•   한국: "우량 회사채 3년물 금리도 1년 내 4% 중반"…채권 시장 어쩌나

[Indicators]

•   US Q1 GDP(rev.): US economy shrank by 1.5% in Q1 but consumers kept spending

•   US Q1 Corporate profits: US Corporate Profits Fall While Consumer Spending Revised Up

•   US Apr. Pending home sales: US Pending Home Sales Drop for a Sixth Month in Worst Skid Since 2018

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: Jobless Claims Dropped Last Week and Remain Near Historic Lows

•   Russia Benchmark rate: Russia slashes rates in effort to cool rouble’s rapid ascent

•   한국 기준금리: 한은, 고물가에 연속 금리 인상…5월도 0.25%P 올려 1.75%로

※   한국은행: 통화정책방향(2022.5.26)

※   한국은행: 경제전망(2022.5월)

※   매경: 이창용 "물가 당분간 5%대"…연간전망 3.1%서 단숨에 4.5%로

•   한국 2021년 4분기 임금근로 일자리: 작년 4분기 일자리 37만개 늘었지만…절반 이상이 노인

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): [아파트 시황] '새정부 기대감' 용산 8주째 상승세

[News]

•   WSJ: As Russian Forces Retreated, Mock Executions and Beatings Increased in Ukraine

•   WSJ: Ukraine Slams Idea of Swapping Land for Peace

•   WSJ: Russia’s Economy Is Tanking but the Ruble Soared. Here’s Why.

•   WSJ: Davos Elite Can’t Agree About the Economy and Neither Can Markets

•   WSJ: Blinken Says U.S to Rely on Alliances, Trade and Investment to Counter China

※   Chief diplomat says Biden administration will focus on defending the rules-based order Beijing is trying to reshape

•   WSJ: U.S. Allies Push Back on China’s Proposed Pacific Island Nations Agreement

•   WSJ: Europe’s Quest for Alternatives to Russian Gas Hits Obstacles in Middle East

•   WSJ: Digital Dollar Could Coexist With Stablecoins, Fed Vice Chairwoman Says

•   WSJ: Broadcom to Buy VMware in $61 Billion Bet on Unsexy Software

•   WSJ: Alibaba, Hit by Covid in China, Posts Slowest Revenue Growth Since IPO

•   WSJ: Alibaba’s Next Challenge: a Sputtering Chinese Economy

•   WSJ: Dollar General, Dollar Tree Stores Show Strength in Face of Inflation

•   WSJ: Apple Boosting Pay Budget for Workers Amid Tight Labor Market

•   WSJ: Microsoft Slows Some Hiring Amid Economic Uncertainty

•   WSJ: Nvidia Only a Bit Off Its Game

•   WSJ: American Shoppers Boost Retailers With Spending on Work Clothes, Discount Staples

•   NYT: As Russia Diverges From the Global Economy, Soviet-Style Scarcity Looms

•   NYT: Will Colombia Elect Its First Leftist Leader?

•   NYT: A Face Search Engine Anyone Can Use Is Alarmingly Accurate

•   WP: At the United Nations, what about the war in Ukraine?

•   WP: China pushes Pacific deal, as Australia scrambles to repair regional ties

•   FT: Cost of living crisis: Sunak engages in ‘serious redistribution’ to help UK’s poorest

•   FT: Sunak statement helps reduce inflation but risks higher rate rises

•   FT: ‘People are still upset’: why Joe Biden’s jobs boom failed to win over voters

•   FT: The American fossil fuel armada just got bigger

•   FT: Government bond markets rally as growth fears overshadow inflation

•   FT: Warehouse demand rages on despite Amazon pullback

•   FT: Toshiba shakes up board by agreeing to appoint activist-backed directors

•   Bloomberg: Russia Faces Biggest Debt Test Yet as US Payment Ban Clouds Path

•   Bloomberg: Putin Ties Grain Exports to Demand That Sanctions on Russia Go

•   Bloomberg: US Consumers Expect Inflation Shock to Pass, NY Fed Survey Finds

•   Bloomberg: Biden’s Climate Costs for Major Projects Survive Court Challenge

•   Bloomberg: Scholz Urges Wider Alliance Against Russia to Thwart Putin

•   Bloomberg: Double Crises From Ukraine to China Take Toll on Global Recovery

•   Bloomberg: Xi-Li Discord Paralyzes Officials Responsible for China Economy

•   Bloomberg: UN Corrects China on Human Rights Chief’s Actual Words to Xi

•   Bloomberg: Strong Demand Powers Indian Economy Past Inflation, for Now

•   Bloomberg: Kuroda Says US Rate Hikes Won’t Necessarily Mean Weaker Yen

•   Bloomberg: Pakistan Raises Fuel Prices to Meet Key IMF Loan Condition

•   Bloomberg: India’s Protectionist Moves Spark Concern That Rice May Be Next

•   Bloomberg: Fertilizer Prices Drop 30% Following Demand Destruction

•   Bloomberg: Pakistan Mulls Gas Import Deal With Countries Including Russia

•   Bloomberg: China’s Slumping Economy to Cut Coal Use Even as Output Swells

•   Bloomberg: Supply Chain Snags Poised to Spur New Wave of Corporate Distress

•   Bloomberg: The Reasons to Worry Just Keep Piling Up for Davos Executives

•   Bloomberg: Baidu Sales Rise After AI Push Helps Offset China Slowdown

•   Bloomberg: EY plans global audit spin-off in drastic Big Four shake-up

•   Bloomberg: Young Americans Are Defying Inflation to Take YOLO Summer Trips

•   Reuters: Russian forces edge closer to encircling Ukraine troops in east

•   Reuters: Exclusive: U.S. and Ukraine discuss danger of escalation as new arms extend Kyiv's reach

•   Reuters: Car sales dampened by chip shortage, COVID measures

•   Reuters: Fed may pause policy tightening in September, BofA says

•   Reuters: COVID-hit Shanghai heads for lockdown exit but China still lost in economic gloom

•   Reuters: Global firms warn of sluggish China demand due to lengthy COVID curbs

•   Reuters: Big tech ad revenue growth to taper as pandemic bubble pops -analyst

•   Reuters: Taiwan raids Chinese firms in latest crackdown on chip engineer-poaching

•   Reuters: Analysis: Britain's shrunken workforce hampers COVID recovery

•   Reuters: Analysis: Russia prepares to seize western firms looking to leave

•   Reuters: Analysis: As N.Korea gears up for potential nuclear test, missiles get little domestic fanfare

•   AP: CEO pay up 17% as profits, stocks soar; workers fall behind

•   SCMP: US-China relations may be worsening, but young Americans still welcome the chance to work in world’s No 2 economy

•   SCMP: Shanghai’s lockdown will end ‘as scripted’, city’s Commissar says, as fewer than 50 Covid-19 cases show symptoms for second day

•   SCMP: China GDP: economic growth likely to ‘fall far short’, premier admits as crisis concerns mount

•   SCMP: China aims to stabilise foreign trade, allay investor fears as Premier Li issues call to action

•   SCMP: China urges Japan to stop ‘dangerous’ close monitoring of navy drills

•   Caixin: Steel Craters in China as Demand Dries Up Amid Covid Lockdowns

•   Caixin: More Chinese Logistics Firms Sink Into Red in April

•   Nikkei Asia: From steel to Gundam: Japan's changing exports

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan reopens to visitors from 98 nations and regions

•   Nikkei Asia: Apple's Shanghai headache and a battle for batteries

•   Nikkei Asia: From somebody to nobody: TSMC faces uphill battle in U.S. talent war

•   Nikkei Asia: Huawei's quick-delivery data center cuts construction time by half

•   Nikkei Asia: From somebody to nobody: TSMC faces uphill battle in U.S. talent war

•   Economic Times: Moody's trims 2022 growth forecast for India to 8.8%

•   Economic Times: Employment of industrial workers surged from September 2021 to April 2022: CMIE

•   Economic Times: FY22 GDP growth seen at 8.2-8.5%, for Q4 at 2.7%: SBI Ecowrap report

•   Economic Times: Manufacturing investments rose in FY20 as rent, profits, interest paid fell

•   매경(P1): "20년 넘은 제도"…재계, 임금피크제 위법 판결에 당혹

•   매경: 대법 위법 판단에 혼선 커진 임금피크제…재계 "줄소송 이어질라"

•   매경: "노사 합의했어도…정년 연장없이 인건비만 줄이면 안돼"

•   매경: 깎인 임금 소급해서 받을 수 있나?…소송 통해 가능 [임금피크제 위법 Q&A]

•   매경: 정년유지형 거의 없어…고용부 "파장 제한적"

•   매경(P1): SK 247조·LG 173조…잇단 투자 보따리

•   매경: SK, 미래 대비해 BBC 집중투자…LG "韓, 첨단 생산·R&D기지로"

•   매경: 현대重, 디지털·친환경 전환에 21조

•   매경: GS "일자리 5년간 2만2천개 만들것"

•   매경: 포스코, 탄소중립 철강·소재에 53조

•   매경: 삼성 450조 투자 계획…이재용 "목숨걸고 한다"

•   매경: '車개소세 인하 연장'…물가 대책으로 검토

•   매경: 3억5천만원 대출 받은 직장인 "주담대이자 400만원 늘어…한달 월급 다 낼 판"

•   매경: 커지는 이자 부담에…노원 관악 금천 집값 먼저 빠졌다

•   매경: 韓美 금리 키맞추기에…원화값은 숨고르기

•   매경: 선진국 경제, 팬데믹前으로 회복중…개도국은 5% 후퇴할것

•   매경: 디지털 무장한 개인…세계화 제2 물결 주도

•   매경: GSSS채권 아시나요…올해 발행액만 2100조원 넘는다는데

•   매경: "탄소 배출 없는 원자력발전…국가 에너지전환 계획 일부"

•   매경: "한일, 정치적 갈등에도 통화스왑은 해야"

•   매경: 전재산 날린 사람도 있는데...사과 한마디 없이 새 루나 만든 권도형

•   매경: 공정위, 中企 기술 뺏은 대기업에 과징금 더 매긴다

•   매경: [단독] 고물가·전쟁 후폭풍…애플 이어 삼성도 스마트폰 감산

•   매경: "매우 정치적이고 인력 유출 심각"…국민연금, 해외서 망신당한 사연은

•   매경: 임대차법 시장 호응 '썰렁'…전월세 신고 122만건 그쳐

•   한경(P1): 2050년 서울 인구, 800만명 밑으로

※   통계청: 장래인구추계 시도편 : 2020~2050년

•   한경: 납품단가 연동제 속도전…中企에 '부메랑' 되나

•   한경: 野 '51조 추경'에…與 "불발땐 책임"

•   한경: 전경련 일자리委 설립…"고용률 70% 달성"

•   한경: 서울 외곽 9억~10억대 매수세 급속 위축

•   서경: [단독] 尹, 물가戰 진두지휘…민생점검회의 만든다

•   서경: 이르면 내년 상반기 '비상장기업 ETF' 나온다

•   서경: "6억 이하 없어요?"…거래절벽에도 저가 아파트 '불티'

•   조선: 올들어 무역적자 100억달러… 효자였던 수출도 어려워진다

•   조선: [WEEKLY BIZ] 컨테이너선 300㎞ 항해를 ‘AI 선장님’에 맡기고… 선원은 영화를 봤다

•   조선비즈: “6월이 기대된다”… 국토부·서울시의회 쌍끌이 규제 완화에 건설업계 ‘들썩’

•   조선비즈: [세종풍향계] 국무조정실장 논란으로 소환된 ‘추경호vs윤종원’ 라이벌史

•   조선비즈: “밥 먹는 시간이 무섭다”… 직장인은 구내식당 찾고, 학생들은 1000원 조식에 줄선다

•   중앙(P1): 대기업 취업 봄 온다…5년간 39만명 채용

•   동아(P1): 추경호 경제부총리 “세율 높고 복잡한 법인세 개선”

•   동아: 휘발유-경유 모두 L당 2000원 넘어… 사상 처음

•   문화(P1): 尹대통령 “지역 상관없이 기회 누려야”

•   문화: [단독]삼성, 첫 로봇 제품 올 3분기 공개…로봇 착용하고 걸으면 PT받은 운동효과

•   한국: "하루 걸릴 콘크리트 타설에 11일" 공사비 급등에 멈춰 서는 건설현장

•   국민(P1): ‘동박’으로 대박난 일진머티리얼즈 매각 왜?… 시장에선 갸우뚱

•   이데일리: [단독]한미, 미일처럼 경제안보 `2+2` 회의 추진…`尹 국정과제` 반영

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 1만6895명 확진…이틀 연속 1만명대 될듯

•   연합: 유엔 안보리, 대북 추가제재 불발…중·러 거부권 행사

•   연합: 中, 3∼4월 북한에 정제유 2만3천배럴 공급…안보리에 보고

•   전자신문(P1): [ET뷰]세계 반도체 장비 '톱10'…韓기업 없어

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]글로벌 반도체 장비 빅4 '점유율 70%'…투자·인력 '물량 공세'

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]반도체 장비업계 "전문인력 태부족"

•   전자신문: 中 '2035 바이오 굴기'…글로벌 패권 경쟁 도전

•   전자신문: BMI, 2031년 세계 배터리 생산량 6000GWh...전기차 9000만대분

•   전자신문: 삼성, 중저가 5G폰 라인업 보강...샤오미·모토로라와 경합

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Nouriel Roubini): Don’t Bet on a Soft Landing

•   Project Syndicate(Antonio Andreoni, Rainer Quitzow): The Pandemic’s Innovation Lessons for the Climate Crisis

•   Project Syndicate(Carl Bildt): The Death of Davos?

•   FT(Editorial Board): A tariff on Russian oil could pave the way to an embargo

•   FT(Martin Wolf): Olivier Blanchard: ‘There’s a tendency for markets to focus on the present and extrapolate it forever’

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): The death of globalisation has been greatly exaggerated

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): US house prices never go down

•   FT(Kitty Ussher): Tackling the root cause of energy bills could help us all on inflation

•   FT(Zhu Ning): China’s central bank faces a delicate balancing act

•   WSJ(Mary Anastasia O’Grady): Venezuela Sanctions Relief Is a Trap for Biden

•   NYT(Cihan Tugal): Turkey Shows What NATO Really Is

•   WP(Editorial Board): Now is not the time to seek a deal with Putin

•   WP(David Ignatius): The secret planning that kept the White House a step ahead of Russia

•   WP(Henry Olsen): The globalists at Davos are finally grappling with the populist movement

•   WP(Fareed Zakaria): The one hopeful sign coming out of Davos this year

•   WP(Khalid Aljabri): I know Saudi repression. Biden should save ties with the kingdom — with conditions.

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): Memo to the Fed: Hurry Up and Hike So We Can Slow Down

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Nvidia Is the Latest Stock Severely Punished for a Growth Disappointment

•   Bloomberg(Andy Mukherjee): Feed the World? India Has a Chapati Crisis Brewing at Home

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): Ukraine Endgames: Will It Resolve With the Finnish Solution or the Korean One?

•   Bloomberg(Jenny Paris): The Federal Reserve's Next Act Will Test Market Stability

•   CNN(Lakshman Achuthan, Anirvan Banerji): It's time to prepare for a recession

•   MarketWatch(Lawrence G. McMillan): The S&P 500 may be finding a short-term bottom -- but the intermediate worries remain