Global Economic Monitor 220503

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: U.S. stocks gain in seesaw session, benchmark Treasury yield hits 3% ahead of Fed

•   US: 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 3% for First Time Since 2018

※   Prices for Treasurys, corporate bonds, municipal debt have slumped in response to Federal Reserve moves to rein in inflation

•   Grains: Soybeans, drop to three-week lows; U.S. planting, conditions in focus

•   한국: 미 증시 폭락에도 코스피 0.28% 하락…개인 매수·FOMC 경계

•   한국: 美연준 앞두고 또 오른 원·달러 환율

[Indicators]

•   US Apr. Manufacturing PMI(ISM): U.S. Manufacturing Gauge Unexpectedly Falls to Lowest Since 2020

•   US Mar. Construction spending: U.S. construction spending rises less than expected in March

•   Eurozone Apr. Economic sentiment: Euro-Area Confidence Sours With Economic Gauge at 1-Year Low

•   India Apr. Manufacturing PMI: India's manufacturing PMI quickens in April amid high inflation

•   India Apr. Power demand: Unrelenting heat in India pushes April power demand to record high

•   Asia Apr. Manufacturing PMI: Asian Factories Defy China Slowdown as Euro Area Loses Momentum

•   Chile Mar. Economic activity: Chile’s Economic Activity Posts Surprise Increase on Mining

•   한국 4월 건설기업 경기실사지수: 건설경기 ‘최악’… 경기실사지수 23개월만에 최저

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine Says It Sank Two Russian Naval Boats, and Moscow Targets Odessa

•   WSJ: Russia Turns on Spending Taps to Blunt Economic Impact of War and Sanctions

•   WSJ: The Push to Prosecute Russia’s Vladimir Putin for the Ukraine War

•   WSJ: Russia-Israel Ties Strained After Moscow’s Top Diplomat Accuses Jews of Anti-Semitism

•   WSJ: China’s Economy Appears to Be Stalling, Threatening to Drag Down Global Growth

•   WSJ: Facing a Wheat Crisis, Countries Race to Remake an Entire Market on the Fly

•   WSJ: Home Buyers Are Finding Ways to Take the Sting Out of Rising Mortgage Rates

•   WSJ: Amazon Workers Reject Union in New York After Labor Victory at Separate Facility

•   WSJ: Starbucks Union Fight Intensifies Under CEO Howard Schultz

•   WSJ: Manufacturers Could Soon Face Demand Woes on Top of Supply-Chain Snarls

•   WSJ: How Austin Lured the Most Workers Back to Offices

•   NYT: Painful Stories Emerge From Mariupol, While Combat Rages to the East

•   NYT: Georgia Jury to Consider Whether Trump Illegally Interfered in 2020 Election

•   NYT: Another Firing Among Google’s A.I. Brain Trust, and More Discord

•   NYT: Why the Debate Over Russian Uranium Worries U.S. Tribal Nations

•   WP: Pandemic, war, politics hamper global push for climate action

•   FT: Germany warns EU to expect economic cost from Russian oil embargo

※   Brussels considers next sanctions as Berlin economy minister cautions consumers will feel strain

•   FT: Slamming export controls on Russia brings the US and EU together

•   FT: World Bank and IMF balance sheets strained by global crises

•   FT: The global stagflation shock of 2022: How bad could it get?

•   FT: Why for some EU capitals, Russian oil is thicker than blood

•   FT: Draghi to extend Italian windfall tax on energy groups

•   FT: Revulsion at Ukraine war ends Rome’s old amity with Moscow

•   FT: Bank of England poised to raise interest rates further to curb inflation

•   FT: Beijing teeters on edge of Covid lockdown

•   FT: Modi invited to G7 summit as west seeks to weaken New Delhi’s Russian ties

•   FT: Apple charged by Brussels with abusing its market power in mobile payments

•   FT: World’s biggest coach maker predicts slow recovery in demand

•   FT: India’s Tata Steel shuns Russian coal

•   FT: ArcelorMittal successfully tests use of green hydrogen at Canadian plant

•   FT: Vestas warns war in Ukraine will add to wind industry slowdown

•   FT: Boris Johnson joins last-ditch bid to win Arm listing for London

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Seen Cutting Quarterly Debt Sale Once More, Ahead of Fed QT

•   Bloomberg: EU Plans to Issue Detailed Guidance on Russia’s Rubles-for-Gas Demand

•   Bloomberg: Hong Kong’s GDP Likely Contracted With Covid, China Lockdowns

•   Bloomberg: ‘Painful’ Mine Protests Reflect Years of Broken Promises in Peru

•   Bloomberg: Japan Seen Unlikely to Intervene on Yen With Fed’s Jumbo Hike Looming

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Analysts Lift Inflation Bets Again as New Rate Hike Looms

•   Bloomberg: IMF Deputy Okamura Warns Inflation May Be Faster Than Feared

•   Bloomberg: EU Plans to Court Africa to Help Replace Russian Gas Imports

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Logistical Headaches Mount in Isolating Russian Cargo

•   Bloomberg: Automated Ports See West Coast Dockworkers Clock More Hours

•   Bloomberg: Finland Drops Nuclear Plant Deal With Russian Energy Company

•   Bloomberg: CATL Retains Top Position as World’s Biggest EV Battery Maker

•   Bloomberg: Will Hydrogen Save U.S. Natural Gas Utilities? Investors Certainly Hope So

•   Bloomberg: U.K., U.S., EU Want to Seal Coal Deals Before COP27

•   Reuters: U.S. trade chief Tai says all tools on table to beat inflation, tariffs not top of list

•   Reuters: U.S. natural gas production growth wanes as need arises

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Musk seeks to put in less money in new Twitter deal financing -sources

•   Reuters: Explainer: Russia swerves to avoid default: what is next?

•   AP: EXPLAINER: Why France’s Macron now faces challenge from left

•   CNN: Why the food crisis sparked by Russia's war hasn't hit Gulf states yet

•   CNBC: Fears of a Fed mistake grow as this week’s anticipated interest rate hike looms

•   CNBC: Chip supply issues are still giving some of world’s biggest companies a major headache

•   CNBC: Biden administration announces $3.1 billion to make electric vehicle batteries in the U.S.

•   CNBC: Chip supply issues are still giving some of world’s biggest companies a major headache

•   MarketWatch: Bond-market ‘wreckage’ in early 2022 unlikely to become the norm, says Nuveen CIO

•   SCMP: Russian natural gas exports to China jump 60 per cent in first 4 months

•   SCMP: Beijing centralises power in the provinces ahead of Communist Party congress

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Shanghai reports 58 new cases in unguarded, low-risk zones in setback for city’s ‘societal zero-Covid’ push

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan, U.S. to deepen cooperation in cutting-edge chips

•   매경(P1): 늙어가는 서울, 용산 재창조가 답

•   매경: 금싸라기 땅을 10년째 방치하다니…용산 재창조 이번엔 성공할까

•   매경: 노른자땅 판자촌·거미줄 철길…서울 경쟁력 끌어내리는 용산

•   매경(P1): 추경호 "가상자산 과세 2년 유예 바람직"

•   매경(P1): 윤석열표 '청년 1억 통장' 내년 출시

•   매경(P1): "버티면 될줄 알았는데"…한국타이어 임원 월급 20% 삭감

•   매경: "지금보다 10배 올려도 부족"…금리 극단적인 전망 내놓은 미석학

•   매경: 원희룡 "DSR 전반적 강화하되…청년들은 완화해야"

•   매경: 박진 "北 비핵화 의지 없어…한미정상회담서 대응 논의"

•   매경: 도대체 소상공인에 얼마를 준다는 거야…尹정부 공약파기 논란

•   매경: KDI "주택시장 조정국면…서울은 부담 커질수도"

•   매경: "최저임금發 경제성장, 근거 없다"

•   매경: 석유 만드는 정유공장, 플라스틱도 만든다

•   매경: 현대차·기아 4월 실적 부진…러시아·中서 판매량 급락

•   한경(P1): "넘사벽 된 애플, 우린 안중에도 없다"…삼성전자의 탄식

•   한경: '재고 관리의 귀재' 팀 쿡, 1년 만에 30일→2일치로

•   한경: 애플 = 안전자산…배당 확대, 자사주 매입만 108조

•   한경(P1): 50년 초장기 주담대 나온다

•   한경: 이틀에 한번 중대재해…CEO엔 '범죄자 낙인'

•   한경: [단독] 저무는 'LCD 패널 왕국'…LGD, 中 저가공세에 감산

•   한경: 3월 서울 아파트 거래량, 1년새 4분의1로 뚝

•   서경(P1): 한덕수 "생산성 혁신 땐 5년내 세계 5~7위국 갈것"

•   서경(P1): [단독] 마트서 사라진 테이프·노끈 부활…탁상행정 사라진다

•   서경: "굿바이 출근"…금융사도 '상시 재택'

•   서경: 한화진 "원전은 녹색에너지…NDC 달성 위해 역할 필요"

•   서경: [단독] 尹 취임식에 中 '리커창 총리' 오나

•   서경: [단독]핵폐기물 저장용량 10년도 못버텨…경수로에도 건식저장소 짓는다

•   서경: [단독] SK, 배터리 장비도 생산…반·배 밸류체인 완성한다

•   서경: [단독] '은둔의 고수' 장덕수, 美 차세대 원전에 1000억 투자

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 출근·재택 섞은 ‘하이브리드 근무’

•   조선비즈: 美 “‘北·中, 러시아 지원’은 가설일 뿐… 어떠한 변화도 없어”

•   조선비즈: [줌인] “제2의 스마트 혁명”...폭발적으로 성장하는 웨어러블 시장

•   조선비즈: ‘수출 낙관론’ 강조하던 산업부, 4월 무역적자에 부랴부랴 ‘뒷북 대책회의’

•   조선비즈: 외국인이 투자 안한 덕?... 반도체 소부장 기업株 한 달새 20% ‘껑충’

•   인베스트조선: 삼성전자와 TSMC...내부에서 새어나온 ‘진짜’ 위기

•   중앙: 통신사만 망 까나요…삼성전자, 5G 특화망 장비 내놨다

•   동아(P1): [단독]바이든, 21일 4대 그룹 총수 만난다… 삼성-SK-현대차-LG와 방한중 회동

•   동아: 원자력硏 “핵폐기물 기본계획에 파이로프로세싱 포함해야”

•   동아: [단독]삼성전자, M&A 속도 낸다… CEO 직속 TF 신설

•   동아: 100대 기업 투자, 반도체 빼면 마이너스

•   문화(P1): 週52시간 족쇄… 일감 넘치는데 일손 부족한 조선업

•   한국: 환율 1300원 간다는데...경제 위기로 봐야 하나?

•   국민(P1): 566일 만에 벗은 마스크 “아직은 어색”

•   국민: 초과세수로 채무상환 하자더니… 새정부도 추경 활용?

•   국민: 세입경정 추진 전망에… 곤혹스런 기재부

•   국민: [단독] 코인대출이 여신? 고심깊은 금감원, 긴장하는 업계

•   서울: [단독] 세종 ‘대통령 2집무실’ 설치 속도 낸다

•   경향: 공급망 위기에 수출기업 85.5% 피해…4곳 중 1곳 “대응책 없다”

•   머니투데이(P1): '공포의 역금융장세' -50%계좌에 비명... 금리·원자재·환율 3大쇼크

•   헤럴드경제: 오너의 힘?…SK 계열사 90개 늘 때 삼성·롯데는 감소

•   헤럴드경제: 삼성, 2019년 ‘반도체 비전 2030’ 선포 그후

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): "집주인이 3억 올려달래요" 전세대란 온다

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 尹 "1기신도시 재정비 약속 지킬것"

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]尹 ‘원전 최강국’ 시동…산업부 ‘원전수출국’ 신설 추진

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독] 中원자재 의존 부메랑…2차전지 수산화리튬 수입액 2배 급등

•   아시아경제: 中 핵심 원자재 막으면 국내 산업 '속수무책'

•   아시아경제: 中 저가 'LFP 배터리' 공습…물러설 수 없는 K-배터리

•   디지털타임스(P1): [기획] 경제 내팽개친 정치, 존재감 없는 인수위

•   디지털타임스: 원자잿값 폭등·공급부족… 철강값 더 오른다

•   이데일리(P1): 쿠팡 나스닥 고전에…해외상장 전략 다시 짜는 스타트업

•   이데일리: '큰 물' 찾아 해외로 본사 옮기는 스타트업…높은 벽 실감

•   이데일리: 본사 해외이전 성공시 대박, 실패시 '낙동강 오리알'

•   이데일리: “韓 혁신 스타트업 다 뺏길라…규제 풀어야"

•   이데일리: 공매도 부분재개 1년, 외국인 비중 여전히 압도적

•   이데일리: 리모델링? 재건축? 尹정부 출범에 고민 깊은 노후단지

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 4만9507명 확진…어제의 2.5배로 늘어

•   연합: 한경연 "9년간 저소득층·고학력층서 출산율 하락폭 가장 커"

•   전자신문: 인텔, "한국 반도체 공급망 기업에 투자할 것"

•   전자신문: 日, '저전력 데이터센터' 신기술 개발 추진

•   전자신문: "수소경제 일환 암모니아 발전 중장기 전략 마련해야" 한전 경영硏

•   전자신문: 韓 부품사, 애플에 반도체 소켓·프로브카드 공급

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Carmen M. Reinhart, Leora Klapper): Private-Debt Risks Are Hiding in Plain Sight

•   Project Syndicate(Simon Johnson): Europe Is Its Own Enemy in Ukraine

•   Project Syndicate(Karsten Neuhoff, Isabella M. Weber): Can Europe Weather Looming Gas Shortages?

•   Project Syndicate(Michael Spence): Good US-China Strategic Competition

•   Project Syndicate(Sławomir Sierakowski): The Moral Bankruptcy of German Pacifism

•   FT(Editorial Board): Yen weakness is an opportunity, not a threat, for Japan

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Triumphalism returns to haunt Xi Jinping

•   FT(Mohamed El-Erian): Investors face volatility as demand stalls amid supply disruptions

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The horror that is 2022

•   FT(Lex): Carbon capture and storage: long-promised fix depends on higher traded prices and lower costs

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Taxpayer Con of the Century

•   WSJ(Jason Furman): A Global Tax System Is Good for the U.S.

•   WSJ(James Freeman): How Many Inflation Warnings Did Biden Ignore?

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Another Cuban Missile Crisis?

•   WSJ(Leif Wenar): Putin’s Land Grab Won’t Be the Last

•   NYT(Peter Coy): Putin’s Failure to Hold on to the Educated Could Be the World’s Gain

•   NYT(Caroline de Gruyter): Europe Is in Danger. It Always Is.

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): Democrats are working through the five stages of inflation grief

•   WP(Max Boot): Ukraine can win. Don’t let Putin scare us.

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): In Markets, Post-Pandemic Shifts Are Driving Deep Discontent and Cruel Reactions

•   Bloomberg(Matthew A. Winkler): Gina Raimondo's Vision for Corporate America

•   Bloomberg(Gary Shilling): The Ideal Portfolio to Survive a Bear Market

•   Bloomberg(Allison Schrager): Why the Federal Reserve Keeps Underestimating Inflation

•   Bloomberg(Shannon K O'Neil): AMLO's Lithium Grab and War on Green Energy Will Hurt North America

•   Bloomberg(Gearoid Reidy, Daniel Moss, Yuko Takeo): The Weakening Yen Helps the BOJ Hit Inflation Goals But Hurts Consumers

•   CNN(Desmond Lachman): The Fed can't afford to make the wrong moves again

•   Fox News(Ari Fleischer): Joe Biden won't run in 2024