Global Economic Monitor 220517

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Yields slip, stocks struggle as economic fears grow

•   Metals: Hopes for China demand revival boost base metal prices

•   Grains: Chicago wheat surges to daily trading limit as India bans exports

•   한국: 중국 경제지표 부진·한은 빅스텝 우려에 코스피 하락…2,590

•   한국: 시총 10조 클럽에 SK바사 엔씨 빠지고 현대重 진입

•   한국: 韓銀총재 '매파 발언'에 국채금리 연 3% 돌파

[Indicators]

•   Eurozone Mar. Balance of trade: Eurozone Trade Deficit Extends to March on Costly Energy Imports

•   Germany Apr. Manufacturing backlog: German manufacturing backlog higher than ever, survey shows

•   China Apr. Industrial production, etc.: China’s Economic Distress Deepens as Lockdowns Drag On

※   Economists call for more aggressive stimulus; slowdown is worst since the initial Covid-19 outbreak in 2020

•   China Apr. Employment: China’s job market plagued by zero-Covid ‘uncertainty’, with swift rebound unlikely

•   Japan Apr. PPI: Japan wholesale prices hit record 10% as energy costs soar

•   Brazil Mar. Government debt: Brazil's government debt falls to 78.5% of GDP in March amid new primary surplus

•   Russia Apr. Current account: Russia Current Account Surplus Jumps to Record Despite Sanctions

•   Saudi Arabia Mar. Oil exports: Saudi Arabia crude oil exports fall in March

•   한국 4월 주택매매소비자심리지수: 집값 들썩…“더 뛴다” 전망도 5개월 새 ‘최고’

•   한국 4월 수출입 컨테이너 운임: 해상 운임도 급등… 1년새 최고 3.4배

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Military Gains Raise Kyiv’s War Aims as Russia Shells Eastern Cities

•   WSJ: Ukrainians in Occupied Village Learn to Live With the Enemy

•   WSJ: Ukrainian Refugees Are Heading Home in Droves

•   WSJ: U.N. Seeks to Ease Russian Blockade of Ukraine Grain Shipping to Avert Food Shortages

•   WSJ: Yellen Pushes Polish Prime Minister on International Tax Deal

•   WSJ: Fed’s Williams Says Bond Market Functioning Well in Uncertain Times

•   WSJ: China Competitiveness Bill Faces Hurdles as Time Runs Short

•   WSJ: U.S. Surpasses One Million Covid-19 Deaths

※   The pandemic’s overall toll has been concentrated among the elderly, especially those in nursing homes. Black and Hispanic populations also have experienced high mortality rates.

•   WSJ: Biden Administration Targets Housing Supply Shortage with Affordable Housing Plan

•   WSJ: Shanghai Takes First Step in Lockdown Exit as Tensions Rise in Beijing

※   Capital remains on edge over Covid-19 restrictions while daily cases in Shanghai drop below 1,000

•   WSJ: Turkey Lays Out Demands as Finland, Sweden Plan NATO Entry

•   WSJ: Crypto Prices Move in Tandem With Traditional Markets, Punishing Investors

•   WSJ: Warren Buffett Spends Big as Stock Market Sells Off

•   WSJ: A $100 Billion Comedown: Soaring Defaults Shrink Asia’s Junk-Bond Market

•   WSJ: Why the World’s Largest Company Is a Second-Class Stock

•   WSJ: For Tech Startups, the Party Is Over

•   WSJ: McDonald’s to Exit From Russia After Three Decades

•   WSJ: Tens of Millions of U.S. Properties Face Wildfire Risk, New Study Says

•   WSJ: Microsoft Boosts Pay in Fight for Talent

•   WSJ: India Can’t Hang Up on Chinese Smartphones

•   NYT: Russia Planned Major Military Reforms. Ukraine Shows the Result.

•   NYT: The F.D.A. is expected to soon authorize Pfizer-BioNTech’s booster for 5- to 11-year-olds.

•   NYT: Ben Bernanke Sees ‘Stagflation’ Ahead

•   WP: The forces steering the 2022 midterm elections - Washington Post

•   WP: FDA comes to agreement with baby formula factory to resume production

•   FT: Putin signals acceptance of Finland and Sweden joining Nato

※   Russia warns of response if alliance sites military equipment on new territories and Turkey objections remain hurdle

•   FT: Finland and Sweden signal paradigm shift with push to join Nato

•   FT: EU and Nato allies seek to overcome internal divisions this week

•   FT: Europe’s push to plug its energy gaps

•   FT: Brussels and Washington aim to be flexible friends

•   FT: The ECB’s unappreciated flexibility

•   FT: Macron picks Élisabeth Borne as France’s new prime minister

•   FT: Johnson faces many obstacles to restoring devolved government in N Ireland

•   FT: Johnson in stand-off with unionists over N Ireland protocol

•   FT: Outstanding N Ireland protocol issues set scene for UK and EU clash

•   FT: BoE governor says he is unable to stop inflation hitting 10%

•   FT: Inflation returns to haunt Brazilians

•   FT: Chip giant TSMC plans further price rises amid inflation concerns

•   FT: US shale companies enjoy ‘tsunami of cash’ on high oil prices

•   FT: Is Elon Musk too big to regulate?

•   Bloomberg: US Plans to Boost Penalty on Russia, China Export Violations

※   Changes could include higher fines, more settlement disclosure

•   Bloomberg: US-EU Trade, Techology Disputes Persist Despite Unity on Russia

※   White House: FACT SHEET: U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council Establishes Economic and Technology Policies & Initiatives

•   Bloomberg: US Set to Extend Covid-19 Public Health Emergency Past July

•   Bloomberg: EU Says Companies Can Buy Russian Gas Without Breaking Sanctions

※   Bloc says payments can be made in euros or dollars to Moscow

•   Bloomberg: ECB Seen Raising Rates Above Zero This Year as Recession Avoided

•   Bloomberg: EU Braces for Storm as Ukraine Fallout Cascades in Economy

•   Bloomberg: Villeroy Warns ECB Will Watch Euro for Imported Inflation Danger

•   Bloomberg: BOE Chief Sees ‘Apocalyptic’ Risk From Soaring Food Prices

•   Bloomberg: Brexit May Make UK Inflation Worse, BOE’s Saunders Says

•   Bloomberg: China Keeps Key Interest Rate Unchanged Despite Sharp Economic Slowdown

•   Bloomberg: China’s Covid Exit Hinges on Seniors Who Don’t Want Vaccines

•   Bloomberg: Not a Single Car Was Sold in Shanghai Last Month

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Says a Recession Would Cast Doubt on a Strong Dollar

•   Bloomberg: Wild Commodity Volatility Has Sparked an Options Trading Boom

•   Bloomberg: JPMorgan Analysts Behind ‘Uninvestable’ Call Upgrade China Tech

•   Bloomberg: Gasoline Metrics Are Flashing Red for a Tight, Costly US Summer

•   Bloomberg: OPEC+ Ministers Say Pumping More Oil Won’t Ease Gasoline Prices

•   Bloomberg: More Than 180 Companies Say They’ve Been Hit by China Lockdowns

•   Bloomberg: US-China Fight May Spoil Global Deal for a Covid Vaccine-Patent Waiver

•   Bloomberg: Bill Gates Group Calls for Green Tech Cash on Fossil-Fuel Scale

•   Reuters: Moscow says G7 attempts to isolate Russia make global food crisis worse

•   Reuters: U.S, E.U will seek to head off subsidy race over chip production, official says

•   Reuters: Economists sound the alarm over UK's post-Brexit finance plans

•   Reuters: Pay growth momentum slowing among UK employers, survey shows

•   Reuters: Bank of Japan's Kuroda warns against excess foreign-currency volatility

•   Reuters: How the new Latin America left is seeking a greener future

•   Reuters: Exclusive: India's surprise wheat export ban traps 1.8 million tonnes at ports

•   Reuters: Philippines removes last hurdle for stalled Tampakan copper-gold project

•   Reuters: Musk tells conference a lower price for Twitter might be appropriate

•   Reuters: Tesla delays plan to restore Shanghai output to pre-lockdown levels

•   Reuters: Analysis: European dealmakers face shrinking debt options as recession risk looms

•   Reuters: Analysis: White House weighs inflation vs. farmers in new biofuel mandates

•   SCMP: Ukraine war propels ‘multilateral momentum’ on China-focused ‘Nato for trade’, experts say

•   SCMP: China’s top diplomat hits out at Western critics who ‘distort the truth’ on pandemic controls

•   SCMP: China to throw more resources at zero-Covid policy, health chief says

•   SCMP: China’s slowing economy ‘the biggest elephant in the room’, Kevin Rudd says

•   Caixin: China’s Developers Slash Investment for First Time Since 2020

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan weighs new corporate structure to amplify public interest

•   Nikkei Asia: Infineon says onshoring chip production 'wise' for supply chains

•   Economic Times: Inflation gets to the core, project costs may go up

•   Economic Times: RBI's move to raise rates, good monsoon will help contain inflation: CII prez

•   Economic Times: How a detergent could have helped RBI act swiftly on inflation

•   Economic Times: Prudent to estimate GDP growth at 7.8-8 per cent at present oil price levels: CII President

•   매경(P1): 尹 "연금·노동·교육개혁 더 미룰수 없어"

•   매경(P1): 고용 1등 물류산업, 직원 안전은 '뒷전'

•   매경: "위험한 일 로봇이" 스마트 물류창고 각광

•   매경: 노동환경보다 세력 확대…잇속 챙기는 민주노총에 쿠팡 노조 가입 1% 그쳐

•   매경: 하청 준 기업보다 직고용 기업에 더 가혹한 중대법

•   매경(P1): 서울 월세, 전세 앞질렀다…무주택자 "이제 월세난민 될판"

•   매경: 일본 입국 때 '사흘 격리' 안 해도 된다…17일부터 대기 의무 면제

•   매경: "불안정한 스테이블 코인…비트코인 흔들리면 파산 위험"

•   매경: 테라재단이 보유한 비트코인 4조5000억 행방묘연

•   매경: '루나·테라 생태계' 참여한 기업들도 충격

•   매경: [단독] 핵심 원자재 부국과 '조달 통로' 뚫는다

•   매경: 韓美 '태양광동맹' 뜬다…한화·OCI 공격 투자

•   매경: 바이든 美 대통령 만나는 재계…"美 정부지원, 국적차별 없어야"

•   매경: 삼성전자 5대 매출처에 퀄컴 첫 등장

•   매경: '큰 그림'그리는 IT공룡들, '큰 구름'떼어낸다는데…[디지털 플러스]

•   한경(P1): '빅스텝' 카드 꺼낸 이창용

•   한경: 이창용, 금리 인상 속도내나…시장선 "8월 이후 빅스텝 밟을 수도"

•   한경: "재정·통화 정책공조 강화할 것"

•   한경(P1): "갤럭시도 애플 아이폰처럼…" 삼성전자, 사활 걸었다

•   한경(P1): 2년 만에 상황 급반전…2억 '영끌' 직장인, 밤잠 설친다

•   한경: [알립니다] 2022 세계 경제·금융 컨퍼런스

•   한경: "3000만원이나 들였는데…" 푸드트럭 상인도 결국 백기

•   한경: 한전 적자 메우려 '민간LNG' 팔 비틀겠다는 정부

•   한경: '접대비' 명칭 54년만에 퇴출되나

•   한경: "가격 더 올리면 실적 반전은 없다"…'인플레와의 전쟁' 나선 유통업계

•   한경: OLED, QLED, QNED…TV 영업사원도 진땀 난다

•   한경: 기관들 회사채 투자 기피…우량기업, CP 발행 급증

•   한경: 대어도 잇단 무산…IPO '혹한기' 상장 전략 비상

•   서경: 최태원, 내달 美사업 확대 논의…구광모, 상반기 전략회의 주재

•   서경: 모토로라 9년만에 韓 컴백…'LG폰 빈자리' 노린다

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 50% 뛴 간병비… 가족들 쓰러질 판

•   조선: ‘신의 직장’ 공공기관 평균연봉 7000만원

•   조선: 영업시간 제한 풀리자… 이태원 매출 180% 껑충

•   조선비즈: “신사업 ‘청정수소’ 속도 낸다”… 수소법 개정 움직임에 건설업계 ‘기대’

•   조선비즈: 치솟는 금리에 한숨 커지는 중소기업… “출구 전략 마련해야”

•   중앙: 살아나는 매출, 식당·주점 ‘엔데믹’ 보인다

•   중앙: 기름값 공포…친환경차 판매 58%↑

•   동아(P1): 南 “방역 지원 실무접촉” 제안에… 北, 무응답

•   동아: [단독]해외선 퇴출된 루나, 국내 투자자는 이틀새 10만명 늘어

•   동아: [단독]한미정상 만찬에 4대그룹 총수 동석할듯

•   문화: 정부 “물가불안 잡아라”…주내 민생경제방안 발표

•   문화: 석달도 안됐는데… 말없이 사라진 ‘외식가격 공표제’

•   문화: 두번 접고 가로세로 늘리고…삼성·LG 디스플레이 또 한 번의 혁신

•   한국(P1): 민주 "다주택자 종부세 기준 완화 추진"... 文 정부 후 '뒤늦은 반성'?

•   한국: KDI "금리 인상, 미국 따라가다 경기 둔화… 국내 상황 고려해야"

•   국민(P1): “세수 예상보다 5조5000억 덜 걷힐 것”… 2차 추경 차질 우려

•   세계: 거리두기 풀리자 오후 6시이후 카드매출액 60% ‘쑥’

•   한겨레(P1): 1년 전에 다 풀었는데…재계는 ‘바이든 방한선물’ 고민중

•   경향(P1): 피할 수 없는 ‘위드 인플레이션’ 시대…무엇을 준비할까[돌아온 인플레이션 ①]

•   머니투데이(P1): 첫 국토장관 원희룡,"100일내 250만+α 공급책 내놓겠다"

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 양도세·추경·예산 변경…‘Y노믹스’ 가속도

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 전월세 신고제 계도기간 연장...기존대로면 내달부터 과태료

•   디지털타임스: 벌써 정체기 맞았나?… 코로나때 잘나가던 OTT 이용자 `뚝뚝`

•   디지털타임스: "애플 공급 늘리자"… LGD·BOE 불붙은 경쟁

•   이데일리(P1): 尹주택정책 올해는 ‘현상유지’…신도시법도 하반기로

•   이데일리: [르포]"팔려는 사람만 넘쳐나죠"…분당 신도시 거품 꺼지나

•   이데일리: 한은 "경제 뉴스, 공식 통계보다 0~9개월 선행한다"

※   한국은행: 뉴스 텍스트를 이용한 경기 예측: 경제 부문별 텍스트 지표의 작성과 활용

•   이데일리: 8월 전세대란 목전..‘폭풍전야’ 서울 전세시장

•   이데일리: '따상' 기업도 힘 못쓰네…5개 중 1개는 공모가 하회

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 3만3948명 확진…어제의 2.6배 수준

•   연합: 팜유 대란에 원자재 매입가 급등…화장품 업계 '울상'

•   연합: 대기업 올해 1분기 매출 700조원 첫 돌파

•   연합: "지난해 상장기업 10곳 중 4곳 직원 줄어…3곳은 2년 연속 감소"

•   전자신문(P1): SK텔레콤, 자연어대화 지원 AI '에이닷' 공개

•   전자신문: 두산에너빌리티 "내년부터 4대 신사업 연간 5조3000억원 수주"

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Shashi Tharoor): India’s COVID Con

•   Project Syndicate(Joseph E. Stiglitz, Jonathan D. Ostry): The IMF Is Still Behind the Times on Capital Controls

•   Project Syndicate(Helmut K. Anheier): Germany’s Great Pacifism Debate

•   Project Syndicate(Willem H. Buiter): Fiscal Capture at the ECB

•   FT(Rana Foroohar): Let the Fed put money where it is really needed

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Russia learns a hard lesson about the folly of war

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The Faangs will be back

•   FT(Karel Lannoo): EU’s proposed crypto regulations are flawed

•   FT(Patrick Jenkins): The new ESG realpolitik and the fossil fuel bonanza

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Biden’s Dance With a Latin Dictator

•   WSJ(James Freeman): Biden, Bezos and Inflation

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): What Southeast Asia Wants From America

•   WSJ(Andy Kessler): When Will the Selling Stop?

•   WSJ(Garry Kasparov): This Is No Time to Go Wobbly on Russia

•   WSJ(Red Jahncke): Falling Markets Will Crush Government Budgets

•   WP(Editorial Board): Russia is losing. That might make Putin more dangerous.

•   WP(Megan McArdle): Biden is doing nothing to fight inflation. We should be grateful for that.

•   WP(Helaine Olen): How ‘nudge economics’ lets companies pass the buck

•   WP(Sebastian Mallaby): Can the Fed pop bubbles before they go bad?

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): It's a Good Time to Think About Stagflation Havens

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Bernstein): Election 2022: Weird Is the New Normal for US Midterms

•   Bloomberg(Therese Raphael): Brexit Isn't Northern Ireland's Biggest Problem

•   Bloomberg(Lisa Jarvis): Omicron Is Turning Out to Be a Weak Vaccine

•   Bloomberg(Lisa Abramowicz): Credit Market Pain Is Too Muted to Save Stocks

•   Reuters(Clyde Russell): China has helped drive up Asian diesel profits; it could lower them, too