Global Economic Monitor 220506

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street tumbles as investors fret over bigger Fed rate hikes

※   Dow drops more than 1,000 points

※   Nasdaq ends at lowest level since Nov. 30, 2020

※   Traders raise bets on 75 bps rate hike in June

※   Twitter one of few stocks in positive territory

※   Indexes fall: Dow 3.12%, S&P 3.56%, Nasdaq 4.99%

•   US: Bond Slide Intensifies, Rattling Other Markets

•   UK: Pound Slides After Bank of England Signals Caution as It Raises Rates

•   China: Shares of Tesla’s battery maker plunge after net profit slides

•   Metals: Copper falls as dollar climbs to near 20-year high

•   Grains: Chicago wheat hits 2-week high on Indian crop concerns

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Slides Below $37,000 as Investors Unwind Risky Bets

[Indicators]

•   US Q1 Nonfarm productivity: U.S. Productivity Drops Most Since 1947, Driving Up Labor Costs

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: Unemployment Claims Climbed to 200,000 Last Week

•   Germany Mar. Factory orders: German Factory Orders Plummet as War Weighs on Manufacturers

•   UK Benchmark rate: : Bank of England warns of UK recession this year as it lifts interest rate

※   Cost of borrowing increases quarter-point to 1%, the highest level since 2009, and sterling hits 2-year low

※   BoE: Bank Rate increased to 1% - May 2022

•   China Apr. Services PMI(Caixin): China’s Services Sector in Doldrums as Covid-19 Lockdowns Bite

•   India Apr. Services PMI: India's April services growth at 5-month high amid mounting price pressures

•   Turkey Apr. CPI: Turkey's inflation surges to 70%, putting Erdogan in bind

※   Bloomberg: Turkish Inflation of 70% Sets G-20 High

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): 서울 아파트값 15주 만에 상승 전환

[News]

•   WSJ: Russia Steps Up Attacks on Ukraine Railways, Other Infrastructure

※   Missile strikes seek to disrupt shipments of Western weapons to Ukrainian forces

•   WSJ: Unexplained Attacks Inside Russian Territory Raise Prospect of Wider Conflict

•   WSJ: Inside Ukraine’s Besieged Azovstal Steel Plant: Siphoning Fuel, Singing Songs and Surviving the Night

•   WSJ: Russia Struggles to Find New Buyers for Commodities as Europe Severs Links

•   WSJ: OPEC, Allies Stick to Production Plan as High Oil Prices Boost Economies

※   Saudi Arabia and other oil exporters are among the biggest winners from the global commodities shock triggered by the Ukraine war

※   OPEC: 28th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting

•   WSJ: Fed, Biden Administration Float New Lending Rules for Lower-Income Areas

•   WSJ: WHO Says 15 Million Have Died From Pandemic, With Highest Toll in India

※   Report estimates that 4.7 million people died in India by the end of last year—around 10 times the official tally at the time

※   WHO: Global excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, January 2020 - December 2021

•   WSJ: Search for Yield Pushes Investors Into Dividend-Paying Stocks

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Gets $7 Billion in Fresh Financing for Twitter Deal

•   WSJ: The 19 Investors Backing Elon Musk’s Twitter Deal: Here’s the List

•   WSJ: Facebook Deliberately Caused Havoc in Australia to Influence New Law, Whistleblowers Say

•   WSJ: Boeing Plans to Move Headquarters to Arlington, Va., From Chicago

•   NYT: Why the battle for Mariupol is important for Vladimir Putin.

•   NYT: Europe’s Quest to Replace Russian Gas Faces Plenty of Hurdles

•   NYT: U.S. Intelligence Is Helping Ukraine Kill Russian Generals, Officials Say

•   NYT: Elon Musk Hates Ads. Twitter Needs Them. That May Be a Problem.

•   NYT: Hurdle to Broad Adoption of E.V.s: The Misperception They’re Unsafe

•   WP: Ukraine says Russia is stealing grain, which could worsen food crisis

•   WP: Oligarch’s effort to broker peace falters even as it shields him from sanctions

•   WP: The global stakes behind America’s abortion fight

•   FT: Russian economy could weather impact of EU oil ban

•   FT: US natural gas prices surge as Europe turns away from Russian energy

•   FT: EU nations lock horns over Russia sanctions

•   FT: German and French factories hit by Ukraine war and China lockdowns

•   FT: Orbán says EU unity undermined by Russia oil embargo plan

•   FT: Finland and Sweden face security dilemma ahead of Nato decisions

•   FT: UK-German trade falls sharply since Brexit vote, data show

•   FT: UK businesses hit hard by rising energy and material prices, official data show

•   FT: Investors detect dovish undertones to Powell’s campaign against inflation

•   FT: US aims to spur oil production by refilling emergency crude stockpile

•   FT: European businesses warn China over zero-Covid policy

•   FT: Defeating Erdoğan: Turkey’s opposition searches for a champion

•   FT: ‘Resolute’ Ukraine response vital to deter China on Taiwan, Japan PM says

•   FT: The oil industry is flubbing its big test

•   FT: ArcelorMittal expects steel consumption to contract as outlook turns gloomier

•   FT: Race to cut carbon emissions fuels climate tech boom

•   FT: Tech manufacturers wrestle with supply chain emissions

•   FT: Carmakers embrace greener vision in wake of Dieselgate

•   FT: Industrial strength amplifies Germany’s carbon challenge

•   Bloomberg: Ex-Fed Vice Chair Clarida Says Rates Must Rise to at Least 3.5%

•   Bloomberg: J&J’s Covid Shot Restricted by FDA on Rare Clotting Disorder

•   Bloomberg: Russia to Use Nord Stream 2 at Home as Europe Shuns Its Gas

•   Bloomberg: Germany Pledges Energy Solidarity in Bid to Cut Russian Oil

•   Bloomberg: Europe’s Economy is ‘De Facto Stagnating,’ ECB’s Panetta Says

•   Bloomberg: ECB to Discuss Rate Hike in June, Probably Act, Holzmann Says

•   Bloomberg: ECB Should Hike in July and Get Rate to Zero Soon, Rehn Says

•   Bloomberg: Europeans Are Dressing Down as Inflation Bites, Zalando Says

•   Bloomberg: Germany Attracts Pre-Covid Levels of Foreign Business Projects

•   Bloomberg: European Power Prices Climb to Year High on Sanctions Threat

•   Bloomberg: China’s Top Leaders Reiterate Support for Covid Zero: CCTV

•   Bloomberg: China’s Protracted Covid Lockdowns Draw Criticism From Fauci

•   Bloomberg: PBOC Sets Stronger-Than-Expected Yuan Fixing After Recent Fall

•   Bloomberg: Dearth of Chinese Real Estate Deals Means Cash Woes Will Persist

•   Bloomberg: Israel Says Putin Apologizes After Dispute Over Hitler Remarks

•   Bloomberg: Covid Positivity Rate Jumps to Four-Month High in South Africa

•   Bloomberg: RBI Said to Extend Hikes on Worries Over Inflation-Target Breach

•   Bloomberg: Turkish Inflation of 70% Sets G-20 High

•   Bloomberg: Stagflation Fear Fuels Big Stock Reversal as Post-Fed Cheer Ends

•   Bloomberg: ‘Scared Like Everybody Else’: Stocks Go From Shaky to Unhinged

•   Bloomberg: ESG Debt Sales Hit Eight-Month Low as Volatility Deters Issuers

•   Bloomberg: Drilling for Shale Oil Is Getting More Expensive at the Worst Possible Time

•   Bloomberg: Lumber Demand Remains Robust With Millennials Buying Up Homes

•   Bloomberg: India Says It Doesn’t See Case for Controls on Wheat Exports

•   Bloomberg: EU Countries Call for 1,000 Gigawatts of Solar Energy by 2030

•   Bloomberg: OPEC Antitrust Effort Advances in U.S. Senate Committee

•   Bloomberg: Engie’s Power-Hungry Clients Help Ride Out Renewable Inflation

•   Reuters: Love letter, ID card point to Russian units that terrorised Bucha

•   Reuters: U.S. Senate moves to launch formal talks on massive China competition bill

•   Reuters: USTR Tai says China tariff review will have 'robust' industry consultations

•   Reuters: U.S. summer travelers can expect long lines, higher prices as COVID restrictions ease

•   Reuters: Omicron as severe as other COVID variants -large U.S. study

•   Reuters: French energy minister expects EU consensus on Russian oil ban by end of week

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Germany begins filling western Europe's biggest gas storage site

•   Reuters: Exclusive: CIA chief told Bolsonaro government not to mess with Brazil election, sources say

•   Reuters: Kuwait oil minister says OPEC+ strategy ensures market stability, balance

•   Reuters: Wind turbine makers struggle to find pricing power

•   Reuters: Big Tech data harvesting comes under fire by world central bank group

•   Reuters: Explainer: Why NOPEC, the U.S. bill to crush the OPEC cartel, matters

•   Reuters: Analysis: EXCLUSIVE Rising oil prices buy Iran time in nuclear talks, officials say

•   Reuters: Analysis: War a lost opportunity for Turkey's westward outreach

•   AP: The AP Interview: Belarus admits Russia’s war ‘drags on’

•   AP: EXPLAINER: Why Victory Day in Russia is different this year

•   CNBC: ‘Unretirement’ is becoming a hot new trend in the sizzling U.S. labor market

•   MarketWatch: Why did the Dow plunge more than 1,000 points? Should I wait for stocks to sink lower? Here’s what some pros think.

•   SCMP: Australia-China relations: ‘No doubt’ that Beijing wants to influence May 21 election, PM Scott Morrison’s defence minister says

•   SCMP: China travel, tourism ‘unlikely to improve materially’ as coronavirus curbs hit Labour Day holiday

•   SCMP: US Fed rate hike: how can China stem capital outflow and prop up the yuan?

•   Caixin: Chinese Smartphone-Makers Must Spend Big to Challenge Apple, Oppo’s China Chief Says

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan seeks quick start to U.S.-led Indo-Pacific economic framework

•   Nikkei Asia: Chinese property developers see hope in Politburo policy shift

•   Economic Times: Recovery of consumer sentiments maybe impacted by inflation and unemployment: CMIE

•   매경(P1): 정권 바뀌는데…公기관장 257명 '어색한 동거'

•   매경(P1): '소득 적은 30대' 부동산 영끌 많아…금리인상기 가계빚 폭탄 뇌관으로

•   매경(P1): 코로나도 버텼는데…재계 비상경영 외치는 이유는

•   매경: 금리 충격 비껴가자 증시 안도…車·반도체 단기랠리 주목

•   매경: 지금도 대출이자 버거운데…한은, 연속 기준금리 인상하나

•   매경: 中企 절반 "중대재해법 의무사항 뭔지 모른다"

•   매경: 금융·공정위원장 동시 사의…인수위 "인선 마무리 단계"

•   매경: 갈곳 잃은 자금, CD금리·단기채 ETF에 몰려

•   매경: 부산엑스포·원전 재개…영남이 들썩인다

•   한경(P1): [단독] "이대로면 심각한 상황 온다"…삼성·SK, 서울대서 '혈투'

•   한경: '정부+기업' 합심한다지만…전공자 확대 '검토'만

•   한경: 대만, 학과 정원 10% 늘려…中은 단과大 개설

•   한경(P1): 한수원, 올 원전 이용률 82%까지 올린다

•   한경: 줄어든 '0.75%P' 우려…환율 급등 진정될 듯

•   한경: "국내 증시서 외국인 추가 이탈 제한적"

•   한경: "가게 월세 내면 남는 게 없다"…명동 사장님 말 진짜네

•   한경: GAFA 연구개발비, 韓 기업의 3배

•   한경: 끝까지 펑펑 쓰고 떠나는 文정부…임기말 법 바꿔 '73조 퍼주기'

•   한경: 정책학회장 5명, 尹정부에 조언…"재정준칙 도입해 나랏빚 관리하라"

•   한경: 두산에너빌리티 '부활 신호탄' 일감 13조원…2년치 먹거리 확보

•   한경: "1월 주문한 맥북 아직도 안 와요"

•   서경(P1): 하청 사고사망자 '원청의 두배'…경영계 우려 현실로

•   서경: 원·하청 책임범위 혼선 여전한데…"원청이 처벌 받는 건 모순"

•   서경: '귀하신 몸' 된 안전관리자…삼성전자까지 채용공고 냈다

•   서경: 中企 10곳 중 8곳 "중대법 부담 크다"

•   서경: 현대차 신차 연기·SK온 흑자전환 지연…줄줄이 '축소경영' 돌입

•   서경: "성장동력 재점화 결국 민간에 달려…기업들 氣부터 살렸다"

•   서경: 2400만명 가입했지만…독식 우려 지적도 [마이데이터 시행 4개월]

•   서경: 쌍용차 인수 후보 4곳 실사 마쳐…정상화 계획·자금 조달이 관건

•   서경: 산업단지 가동률 2개월째 하락세…거리두기 해제 뒤 소상공인 매출은 소폭 늘어

•   조선: [단독] 尹 ‘탈원전 폐기’ 액션플랜

•   조선: 천장 뚫은 알바시급… “1만원 줘도 사람 못구해”

•   조선: “1인당 GDP 한국 추월..대만인 노력 결과” 차이잉원 자축

•   조선: “팬데믹 수년 내에 다시 온다… 평등한 백신 접종이 확산 막을 것”

•   조선: 4만원이냐, 6만원이냐 ‘5G 중간요금’ 얼마나 될까

•   조선: 코로나 ‘집콕’ 끝나며 올해 TV 출하량 12년만에 최저 예상

•   조선: 드론이 배달하고, 로봇이 치킨 튀기고… 여기는 편의점

•   조선: 서학개미 순매수 톱10, 테슬라·애플만 웃었다

•   조선: [단독] ‘원전수출 거점’ 해외공관 10~15곳 지정한다

•   조선비즈: 무역협회 “엔화 약세, 우리 수출에 영향 제한적”

•   조선비즈: “로봇이 나르고 분류”… CJ대한통운, 허브터미널 첨단화 속도

•   조선비즈: 尹 정부, 해상풍력 속도조절 나설까… 숨죽인 전선업계

•   조선비즈: ‘탈원전’ 외치며 ‘재생에너지’ 키운 文정부…들여다보니 中 의존도 심각

•   조선비즈: 스마트폰 철수한 LG전자, 5G 특화망 장비 수주 삼성 제쳤다

•   조선비즈: 46兆 쏟아붓자 반도체 세계 7위→3위… 최태원 뚝심이 일군 SK하이닉스

•   조선비즈: ‘탈원전’ 외치며 ‘재생에너지’ 키운 文정부…들여다보니 中 의존도 심각

•   인베스트조선: 멀어지는 JY 사면…차기 정부로 연장되는 삼성전자 '총수 부재' 불안감

•   중앙: 실외 마스크 해제…안 쓰는 유럽, 다 쓰는 한·일·싱가포르 왜

•   중앙: [단독] 이젠 한국 인력 안빼간다…'기술 도둑' 中 달라진 수법

•   동아(P1): [단독]법사위장 안 내놓는 민주, 또 입법독주 예고

•   동아(P1): [단독]“北 ‘핵탄두 소형화’ 완성…20일 바이든 방한 직전, 풍계리서 7차 핵실험 할듯”

•   동아: 기재부, ‘강달러 방어막’ 한미 통화스와프 검토

•   동아: 5년간 1만명 퇴직 앞둔 현대차… 勞 “정년 연장” 使 “연구직 수혈”

•   동아: “코로나 감소세 지속… 내달초 하루 확진 1만명대로 줄듯”

•   동아: 美국무부, ‘韓사드 추가배치’ 질문에 “논의 있을것”

•   한국(P1): 심야 택시 대란에…서울시, 지하철·버스 막차 시간 연장한다

•   국민(P1): [단독] 尹, 올해 임명 가능한 공공기관 14곳뿐

•   서울: Z세대 유출될라 전전긍긍… 삼성전자 복지제도 고심 [재계 블로그]

•   머니투데이(P1): "연봉도 과유불급"…노조 치킨게임에 삼성 직원들도 '지쳤다'

•   머니투데이(P1): IMF에 이루지 못한 '꿈'…LG '차량 반도체'로 잇는다

•   머니투데이: 코로나19 지옥 배달로 버틴 사장님들 그래도 "남는 건 없어요"

•   머니투데이: 2명 중 1명은 월 수입 300만원 이상…"딸배라 부르지 말라"

•   머니투데이: 500m 밖 떡볶이 1인분도 "단건배달 해주세요, 무료로"

•   머니투데이: '고성능컴퓨팅' 파운드리 고지...삼성 vs TSMC, 미세공정 혈투

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 이번엔'석탄 대란'... 1년새 250% 급등

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 석탄가격 급등에 공공요금 줄인상 압박… ‘공급망 교란’ 건설업계도 비명

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 삼성 '나노의 벽' 집단개발로 돌파… 내년 양산 맞춘다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 고금리에 회사채 시장 경색… 대기업까지 은행대출 줄섰다 [다시 은행 찾는 기업들]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 기름값 비싼데 유류할증료까지... 국제선 항공권 가격 또 오르나

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "올해도 접어"… 한·미·중 ‘폴더블폰 삼국지’ 열린다

•   디지털타임스(P1): 24년만 최고라는데… 외식할 일 많은 `공포의 5월`

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]최태원, 내달 파리 간다…아프리카도 검토

•   이데일리: 남아도는 전력에 신재생 출력제한 증가…"양수발전 적극 검토해야"

•   이데일리: '소통에 목마른' MZ세대의 힘…꿈쩍 않던 사장님을 움직였다

•   이데일리: "LTV 푼거야 안푼거야"…내 집 마련 실수요자 ‘한숨’

•   이데일리: 이제는 거버넌스 시대…“주주환원 자사주 소각에 주목해야”

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 2만6412명 확진…어제보다 1만4846명 적어

•   연합: 백악관 "바이든 방한 시 더 강한 안보 약속…확장억지 철통같아"

•   연합: 美상원, 주한美대사 지명자 만장일치 인준…조만간 부임 예상

•   이뉴스투데이: [단독] 태양광 거래량 1천GWh 고지 뚫었다

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트] 정유업계, 사상 최대 실적에도 '위기감' 증폭

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]정유업계, 친환경 사업 강화로 위기 돌파 나서

•   전자신문: 저축은행 금리 '예금>적금'...격차 더 커진다

•   전자신문: 스타벅스·다이소도 못연다....지역상권법 시행에 희비 엇갈려

•   전자신문: SK온-포드, 8兆 규모 배터리 장비 발주

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Peter Singer): Should Europe Stop Paying for Putin’s War?

•   Project Syndicate(Barry Eichengreen, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Paola Subacchi, Yu Yongding): Is the US Dollar’s Global Hegemony at Risk?

•   Project Syndicate(Jan Mischke, Jurica Novak): Addressing Europe’s Corporate Technology Gap

•   FT(Gillian Tett): The Fed owes the American people some plain-speaking

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): The effects of sanctions on the Russian economy

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The Fed has no plan

•   FT(Thomas Hale): The carbon offset market is falling short. Here’s how to fix it

•   FT(John Redwood): Inflation and the investment outlook

•   FT(Zach Pandl): The yen: a cheap haven for uncertain times

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Powell Puts Volcker on Hold

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Europe Squeezes Russia’s Oil

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): This Month’s Inflation Scapegoat? Railroads

•   WSJ(Joseph C. Sternberg): With Friends Like Putin, Xi May Lose Europe

•   WP(Editorial Board): Amid Ukraine’s ruins, Russia is rebuilding totalitarianism

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Don’t Expect the Fed to Work Miracles

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): The Philippines Economy Is Great — By the Numbers

•   Bloomberg(Clive Crook): Central Bankers Are Handcuffed by Old Narratives

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Powell Won’t Welcome Being Seen as Dovish

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): In the U.K., the Line Between Inflation and Recession Is Thinning

•   Bloomberg(Andy Mukherjee): The RBI Needs to Raise Rates More to Regain Credibility

•   Bloomberg(Leonid Bershidsky): Ukraine Has High Hopes as a Victorious Nation

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin, Robert Burgess): Powell Hampers the Federal Reserve With an Unforced Error

•   Bloomberg(Allison Schrager): It's a Long, Bumpy Road Back to 2% Inflation

•   MarketWatch(Satyajit Das): Putin's war on Ukraine is fracturing the global economy --- expect lower incomes, continued inflation and smaller investment returns worldwide