Global Economic Monitor 220525

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks tumble on growth concerns, bond yields slip

※   Stocks slide on poor earnings, bearish economic data

※   China talks stimulus, but economic damage already done

※   Euro near 4-week high as Lagarde flags July rate hike

•   US: Big Tech Stocks’ Latest Dive Snuffs Out Hopes They’ve Hit a Bottom

•   Metals: Copper falls as investors fear global economic slowdown

•   Grains: Wheat stays firm on crop concerns

•   한국: 코스피 1.57% 내려 2,600선 다시 위협…코스닥은 2%대 급락

•   한국: 외환 급한 불 껐지만…“원화 약세 공포, 언제든 재연”

[Indicators]

•   US·Europe·Asia Apr. PMI: Inflation, Rising Rates Curb Global Economic Growth

※   U.S. services companies report slower growth due to rising prices and concerns over interest rates, survey finds

•   US 2021 Births: U.S. Births Increase for First Time Since 2014

•   US Apr. New home sales: New-Home Sales in April See Biggest Monthly Drop Since 2013

•   UK Apr. Fiscal account: UK Budget Deficit Smaller Than Forecast as Tax Rise Kicks In

•   Indonesia Benchmark rate: Indonesia Raises Reserve Requirement While Holding Key Rate

•   한국 2021년 기업특성별 무역통계: 수출기업 2년연속 줄어

•   한국 1분기 가계신용: 가계대출 20년 만에 처음 줄었다

•   한국 4월 휘발유·경유 소비: 고유가에 4월 휘발유·경유 소비량 감소…작년 동월보다 18%↓

•   한국 5월 BSI·ESI: 거리두기 해제에 비제조업 체감경기 11년 5개월만에 최고

[News]

•   WSJ: Between Front Lines, Ukrainian Reconnaissance Teams Hunt Russian Targets

•   WSJ: Ukraine Identifies Suspects in Killing of Village Mayor Near Kyiv

•   WSJ: Treasury to Block U.S. Investors From Receiving Russian Debt Payments

※   Allowing a sanctions exemption to expire will likely cause Russia to default on its foreign currency debts this summer

•   WSJ: Where Is Inflation Headed? Nine Signs to Watch

•   WSJ: Fed Searches for the Magic Number to Cool a Red-Hot U.S. Housing Market

•   WSJ: New York Fed Flags Scenarios Where Central Bank Could See Losses

•   WSJ: Ukraine-Russia War Is Fueling Triple Crisis in Poor Nations

•   WSJ: Emerging-Markets Currencies Stay Strong Despite Dollar’s Rise

•   WSJ: What Happened to TerraUSD’s Bitcoin Reserves

•   WSJ: SpaceX Shoots to $125 Billion Valuation, Shrugging Off Elon Musk’s Woes

•   WSJ: Snap’s Gloomy Forecast Prompts Debate Over Trouble for Broader Advertising Market

•   WSJ: Why Isn’t New Technology Making Us More Productive?

•   WSJ: Rising Interest Rates Concern Apartment-Building Owners, Renters

•   NYT: Russia’s Shrinking War

•   NYT: Biden Veers Off Script on Taiwan. It’s Not the First Time.

•   NYT: Another Omicron subvariant, known as BA.2.12.1, has become the dominant form among new U.S. virus cases.

•   NYT: Larry Summers calls Biden’s efforts to limit corporate power ‘populist antitrust.’

•   NYT: Why Has the Inflation Calculation Changed Over Time?

•   NYT: Freeing Ukraine’s food supply to help feed the world will be difficult and dangerous.

•   NYT: Harsh Winter Could Force Europe to Ration Gas, Global Energy Leader Warns

•   NYT: An American Comeback on Amazon

•   WP: Biden visit showcases hardened stances on North Korea

•   WP: As monkeypox panic spreads, doctors in Africa see a double standard

•   WP: Japan's weaker yen a blessing to some, burden for others

•   FT: Quad unveils satellite-based maritime initiative to counter China

•   FT: Orbán refuses to discuss Russia oil embargo at EU summit

•   FT: European business leaders fear rising protectionism

•   FT: EU ‘finalising’ deal with Poland for €36bn Covid recovery plan

•   FT: Why ‘the worker’s market’ is not delivering for Americans

•   FT: Convertible bonds drop as investors cool on once-hot tech companies

•   FT: How progressive is Big Oil?

•   FT: Commodity funds stage revival as investors seek inflation hedges

•   FT: Bolsonaro dumps third Petrobras chief executive as fuel prices soar

•   FT: Glencore to plead guilty to bribery charges and pay $1.5bn penalty

•   Bloomberg: Rising Global Food Protectionism Risks Worsening Inflation Woes

•   Bloomberg: Biden, Modi Discuss Efforts to Curb Rise in Food, Energy Prices

•   Bloomberg: Blinken to Deliver Key Speech on US China Policy After Delays

•   Bloomberg: US Job Jumpers Reconsider and Quit Again Soon After

•   Bloomberg: An Ex-Fed Insider Tells You How to Decode the Central Bank’s Communications

•   Bloomberg: Bostic Urges Fed Tighten Policy With Care, Avoid ‘Recklessness’

•   Bloomberg: Fed Study Says It’s Solved the Murder Mystery of Who Killed the Phillips Curve

※   Fed: Who Killed the Phillips Curve? A Murder Mystery

•   Bloomberg: Pandemic Housing Boom Hits a Wall With US Buyers Priced Out

•   Bloomberg: US Must Be ‘Strategic’ on China Tariffs, Trade Chief Says

•   Bloomberg: Food Crisis Risks ‘Messy’ Migration Wave Into Europe, EU Warns

•   Bloomberg: Soros Tells Draghi That Europe Is Stronger on Gas Than It Thinks

•   Bloomberg: ECB Battle Lines Shift With Lagarde Urged to Speed Up Rate Hikes

•   Bloomberg: Lagarde Says ECB Won’t Be Rushed as Officials Act to Curb Prices

•   Bloomberg: Holzmann Calls For Half-Point Hike to Show ECB’s Resolve in Inflation Fight

•   Bloomberg: Villeroy Says Half-Point Rate Hike Isn’t in ECB Consensus

•   Bloomberg: ECB Shouldn’t Rule Out Half-Point Rate Hikes, Kazaks Says

•   Bloomberg: BOE Says Climate Transition Will Cost Finance System Billions

•   Bloomberg: Europe Looks to Beef Up Powers to Seize Russian Assets

•   Bloomberg: Germany to Bring Back Coal Power Plants If Russia Cuts Gas

•   Bloomberg: Xi’s Covid Policy Crosses a Line With Invasive Home Disinfection

•   Bloomberg: Tesla Quarantining Thousands of Workers to Restore China Output

•   Bloomberg: Pakistan-IMF Talks Going Well, Take ‘Bit of Time’: Syed Says

•   Bloomberg: Pakistan’s Ousted PM Khan Vows to Defy Government Ban on Protest

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Inflation Seen Staying Above BOJ Target Through Year-End

•   Bloomberg: Central Banks Fret as Inflation-Linked Pay Bumps Stage Comeback

•   Bloomberg: India to Limit Sugar Exports in Risk to Global Food Prices

•   Bloomberg: Lithium Demand For EV Batteries Pushes Argentina Mining

•   Bloomberg: Walmart Plans $3.99 Drone Deliveries in Six States by Year-End

•   Bloomberg: How Covid Made World’s Trash Problem Much Worse

•   Bloomberg: Electric Bill Increases Worsen Inflation Pain

•   Reuters: Food crisis fuels fears of protectionism compounding shortages

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Sri Lanka's prime minister says he will slash expenditure in new budget

•   Reuters: Germany's Scholz says unacceptable to side with Russia on Ukraine war

•   Reuters: Britons warned energy bills could jump another 40% in October

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Sri Lanka's prime minister says he will slash expenditure in new budget

•   Reuters: Argentine bills strain wallets (literally) amid inflation drain

•   Reuters: Saudi foreign minister does not expect immediate global oil shortage

•   Reuters: Siemens Gamesa CEO: will return to at least 2017 turbine pricing levels

•   Reuters: Spain to spend 12.25 bln euros on microchip industry

•   Reuters: Siemens Energy cuts management layers, revamps segment reporting

•   Reuters: Analysis: Subtle shift in U.S. rhetoric suggests new Iran approach

•   CNN: 'Lunchflation' is real. Returning to the office is costing us a fortune

•   CNBC: Goldman Sachs expects more China real estate defaults, switches to bear case

•   CNBC: Ukraine war has pushed Japanese away from war-renouncing stance, political analyst says

•   CNBC: Electronics are set to get even more expensive as chip giants hike their prices

•   CNBC: Volkswagen chief says German car giant will overtake Tesla on electric vehicle sales by 2025

•   CNBC: Microsoft is selling the metaverse now ⁠— and it’s helping make everything from robots to ketchup

•   CNBC: Stellantis CEO warns of electric vehicle battery shortage, followed by lack of raw materials

•   CNBC: Ray Dalio says cash is still trash, and equities are trashier

•   MarketWatch: ‘Markets are imploding’ because the Fed isn’t doing its job, says billionaire investor Bill Ackman

•   Fox Business: Gas prices still rising, some states see weekly prices jump double digits

•   SCMP: China has 33 ways to get economy back on track, but critics say ‘adjusting zero-Covid strategy is key’

•   SCMP: China’s foreign minister to visit Pacific island nations including Solomons

•   SCMP: Germany, Britain and US press China over new ‘shocking’ Xinjiang human rights abuse reports

•   SCMP: Biden on Taiwan: don’t read too much into defence pledge, analysts say

•   SCMP: China’s push to loosen US dollar dominance takes on new urgency after Western sanctions on Russia

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Shanghai keeps millions under lockdown, even as community infections remain at zero amid daily swings in new Covid-19 cases

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Beijing cuts tax by 60 billion yuan to spur vehicle sales as ‘China’s Motown’ sits idle amid Covid-19 lockdown

•   SCMP: China’s drive for tech independence gathers pace as US launches new Indo-Pacific strategy

•   SCMP: Coronavirus-driven order delays, US tariffs on China raise world PC prices. Is relief on the way?

•   Caixin: China Cranks Up Pressure on Banks to Boost Lending

•   Nikkei Asia: Getting real: Kishida marks 'new era' in diplomacy as Japan looks beyond pacifism

•   Nikkei Asia: Toyota to cut global production plan by 100,000 in June

•   Economic Times: India may opt for more duty cuts against runaway inflation

•   TechRadar: Microsoft is finally opening up widgets to developers in Windows 11 update

•   매경(P1): 삼성 360조·현대차 63조…국내투자 쏟아낸다

•   매경: 전기차 16조 쏟는 현대차…"한국이 車산업 대전환 주도"

•   매경: 한화, 年4000명씩 채용…태양광사업 확 키운다

•   매경: '역대 최대' 투자 롯데 "5년간 일자리 5만개"

•   매경: 비메모리·바이오 집중투자…"삼성그룹 하나 더 만드는 효과"

•   매경: 투자 국내복귀 늘리려…정부 규제완화 속도

•   매경: 친환경·모빌리티…신성장사업 공격 투자

•   매경(P1): "복합 위기 장기전", "진짜 문제는 식량"…다보스 포럼 거장들의 경고

•   매경: 전쟁이 식품물가 쥐고 흔들어…공급망 위기 수년간 지속

•   매경: "청정에너지로 전환 멈추지 말아야"

•   매경: "미중 신냉전시대…유럽 역할이 변수"

•   매경: 일주일 한 개씩 새 변이 등장...백신 이기주의가 만든 굴레 [다보스포럼]

•   매경: 점심 한끼 1만원인데…직장인 식대 비과세 한도 19년째 '월 10만원'

•   매경: 한 집에 한 대 있는 차가 사치품이라니?…45년 묵은 車개별소비세

•   매경: 가사수당 공짜버스 '퍼주고', 재산세 100% 감면 '지르고'…선심성 공약 난무

•   매경: 美CSIS 빅터 차, "주말 美국경일 연휴에 北 무력 도발 가능성"

•   매경: 정부, 국민연금 고갈대응 서두른다…이르면 내달 재정추계委 출범

•   매경: TV 수요 줄었지만…1분기 삼성·LG 선전

•   매경: 운임상승·中경기부양…해운주 물만났네

•   매경: 서울 아파트 매물 6만건 쌓이는데…거래는 여전히 찬바람

•   한경(P1): "한전 손실 우리한테 떠넘기나"…민간 발전사들 뿔났다

•   한경(P1): [모십니다] 2022 한경 주식투자강연회

•   한경: "세금 줄어든다더니"…'뒤통수' 맞은 다주택자들 어쩌나

•   한경: 전기료 놔두고 한전 '전력 구입가'만 낮춰…발전사 "反시장 편법"

•   한경: 한덕수 "全 부처, 규제개혁 TF 설치하라"

•   한경: "자율주행 로봇이 수집한 데이터 중국에 넘어간다"…커지는 우려 [실리콘밸리 나우]

•   서경(P1): 삼성전자·현대차 등 "新기업가정신은 혁신의 길"

•   서경(P1): [단독] '몸값 3조' 일진머티리얼즈 매물로…롯데·사모펀드서 인수 저울질

•   서경: "투자집행에 총수 역할 절실"…탄력받는 이재용 사면론

•   서경: 구인난에 '너도 나도 억대연봉'…고임금發 인플레 '악순환'

•   조선(P1): 바이든 순방 마지막날… 中·러, 한일 방공구역 침범

•   조선(P1): 2금융서 75조 대출… 영끌족이 위험하다

•   조선: “평생 집 못살까봐 빚내 샀는데…” 소득 12% 오를때 이자 52% 뛰어

•   조선: 전월세까지 오를라… 세입자들도 불안불안

•   조선: 삼겹살 사먹기 무섭네… 1인분 평균가격 1만7000원 넘어

•   조선비즈: 너도나도 “삼성·SK 데려오겠다”… 선거 공약에 기업은 난감

•   동아(P1): 공정거래위원장 장승화 유력, 금융위원장 김주현 내정, 국무조정실장 윤종원 내정

•   동아: 초단기 근로자 154만명… 4월 기준 사상 최대

•   동아: [DBR/Special Report]“더 싸게 더 많이” AI진화 돕는 ‘합성 데이터’

•   한국(P1): 경윳값 기가 막히네… L당 전국 평균 2000원 첫 돌파

•   세계(P1): 美 싱크탱크 “한국, 쿼드플러스 후보 유력”

•   머니투데이(P1): 한미 '원전동맹' 외쳤는데…SMR 예산 1850억 깎일 위기

•   헤럴드경제(P1): “원전·재생에너지·천연가스 합리적 믹스”

•   파이낸셜뉴스: ‘신사업 확장’ 두산에너빌리티, 3년간 6700억 투자

•   디지털타임스: 글로벌 악재에 흔들리는 LCD… LGD도 고달프다

•   이데일리(P1): 당정 "코인거래소 직접 규제하겠다"

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 2만3348명 확진…어제보다 2천84명 적어

•   연합: 한은, 26일 기준금리 올리고 물가 전망 4%대로 높일 듯

•   연합: 尹대통령, 첫 대통령주재 NSC 소집…北미사일 논의

•   연합: 북한, 이틀째 코로나 사망 '제로' 주장…누적환자 300만 돌파

•   연합: 중국 투자·거래 국내기업 약 70% "中 도시 봉쇄로 악영향"

•   아시아투데이: [단독]한수원 원전 가동률, 5년 만에 80% 돌파…尹 기조 발맞춘다

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성전기, 샤오미에 2억 화소 카메라용 OIS 공급

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Shlomo Ben-Ami): Shlomo Ben-Ami Says More…

•   Project Syndicate(Takatoshi Ito): The Finlandization of Asia

•   Project Syndicate(George Soros): The Fight of Our Lives

•   FT(Editorial Board): US influence in Asia depends on economic engagement

•   FT(Martin Wolf): The Fed must act now to ward off the threat of stagflation

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): The Ukraine war casts its shadow over Davos

•   FT(Edward Luce): Trump is losing his stranglehold on Republicans

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): Inflation and the economics of belonging

•   FT(Sarah O'Connor): Why a higher UK minimum wage fails to spur productivity

•   FT(Abby Joseph Cohen): Now is the time for stockpickers in markets

•   FT(Sylvie Kauffmann): The west is divided over how the war in Ukraine must end

•   FT(Lex): US Treasuries: Fed cannot count on Asian investors forever

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Biden’s Real Taiwan Mistake

•   WSJ(T.J. Rodgers): Tariffs on China Throw Shade on the U.S. Solar Industry

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): The Perils of Plutocratic Pettiness

•   NYT(Bret Stephens): On Taiwan, Biden Should Find His Inner Truman

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): Biden’s trade framework misses key points about, well, trade

•   WP(David Ignatius): Why I’m sad to be on Russia’s all-purpose payback list

•   WP(Henry Olsen): Donald Trump seems to be losing his grip on the GOP

•   WP(Marc A. Thiessen): Biden’s flip-flop on defending Taiwan makes America look weak

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): Job Market Is Heading for a Soft Landing of Its Own

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): ECB's Lagarde Shows Europe Has Limits for a Rising Dollar

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): ECB Abandons Strategic Ambiguity on Rate Increases

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): Biden's Taiwan ‘Gaffe’ Is a Smart Strategy to Deter China

•   Bloomberg(Sam Fazeli): How Prepared for a Monkeypox Outbreak Are We?

•   Bloomberg(Trung Phan): Why Apple Will Beat Meta in the Mixed-Reality Battle

•   Bloomberg(Andrea Felsted): Good Times for the Consumer Economy Come to an End

•   CNN(Mark Wolfe): The US solar panel industry is on the verge of collapsing. Here's how to prevent it

•   MarketWatch(Vitaliy Katsenelson): Inflation will be higher for longer — and you’re not going to like what comes next

•   Fox News(Liz Peek): Joe Biden's China-Taiwan gaffe just latest mistake that could start a war