Global Economic Monitor 220526

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global shares rise after Fed meeting notes hint at future rate hikes

※   Wall Street rises on growth stocks

※   U.S. dollar snaps two-day losing streak

•   Natural gas: Natural gas surges above $9, hits the highest since 2008 as inventories stay low

•   Metals: Growth worries push copper prices lower

•   Grains: US soybean, wheat futures fall but corn closes higher

•   한국: 코스피 0.44% 상승 마감…기관 저가매수에 반등

[Indicators]

•   US Apr. Durable goods orders: Orders for Long-Lasting Goods Rose Modestly in April

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications: Mortgage demand slides further, even as interest rates pull back slightly

•   한국 2021년 고용형태별 근로실태: 비정규직 임금, 정규직의 73%로 올랐지만… 주원인은 ‘코로나 실직’

•   한국 2021년 청년 고용: 지난해 청년 고용 늘었다… 25~29세 평균임금 261만8000원 [청년통계]

•   한국 2021년 급수단 및 모바일금융서비스 이용행태: 20대는 체크·직불카드, 60대는 현금…이용행태 양극화

•   한국 1분기 국제투자대조표: 서학개미·기관의 눈물…올 1분기 40조 날렸다

•   한국 1분기 대외채권·채무: 1분기 단기외채 비중 ‘증가’…기재부 “만기구조 장기화 노력”

•   한국 3월 인구: 오미크론발 '인구쇼크'...1분기 사망자 10만 명 넘었다

•   한국 4월 기업 직접금융 조달실적: 지난달 주식·회사채 발행 45% 증가…대규모 유상증자 영향

[News]

•   WSJ: Fed Minutes Show Urgency for Raising Rates to Tame High Inflation

※   Officials at this month’s meeting were in agreement on need for further half-point increases in June and July

※   Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 3-4, 2022

•   WSJ: CBO Projects Inflation, Economic Growth to Cool This Year and Next

※   Nonpartisan agency sees federal deficits easing in 2022 and 2023 before expanding later in the decade

※   CBO: The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032

•   WSJ: Russian Forces Expand Donbas Assault, Take Heavy Losses

•   WSJ: Russia Weighs Easing Ukraine Grain Blockade in Return for Sanctions Relief

•   WSJ: Putin’s Powerful Orthodox Church Ally Helps Cement Russian Support for War

•   WSJ: Ukraine War Threatens Transition to Cleaner Energy, Leaders Warn at Davos

•   WSJ: Kansas City Fed Leader Esther George to Retire in January

•   WSJ: Export Curbs Spread Globally, Adding to Food-Inflation Pressures

•   WSJ: Iran Used Secret U.N. Records to Evade Nuclear Probes

•   WSJ: China’s Top Two Leaders Diverge in Messaging on Covid Impact

※   Premier Li Keqiang acknowledges business impact of lockdowns and touts vaccinations in meetings with foreign executives, marking a contrast with President Xi Jinping

•   WSJ: Foreign Business Is Falling Out of Love With China

•   WSJ: SEC to Propose More Disclosure Requirements for ESG Funds

•   WSJ: Rising Rates Are Battering Mortgage Lenders

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Plans to Rely More Heavily on Equity for Twitter Deal

•   WSJ: Aramco Approached Valvoline About Potential Takeover of One of Its Units

•   WSJ: Nvidia Posts Record Sales, Warns of Russia, China Hit

•   WSJ: China’s Covid-19 Lockdowns Hurt Sales of Starbucks Coffee, Adidas Sneakers

•   WSJ: Toyota Revs Up Race With Tesla

•   WSJ: Companies Might Be Getting Weak in the Knees on Capital Spending

•   NYT: A Doomed River Crossing Shows the Perils of Entrapment in the War’s East

•   NYT: Putin visits the wounded at a military hospital in Moscow, in a first since the Ukraine invasion.

•   NYT: China pushes for regular mass testing in its ‘zero Covid’ pursuit.

•   NYT: U.S. Speeds Up Reshaping of Taiwan’s Defenses to Deter China

•   NYT: China is organizing military drills near Taiwan in warning to the U.S.

•   NYT: ‘Quantum Internet’ Inches Closer With Advance in Data Teleportation

•   NYT: Digital Threads Between the U.S. and China

•   WP: Donald Trump recalibrates his standing in GOP after primary setbacks

•   FT: ECB warns a house price correction is looming as interest rates rise

※   ECB: Financial Stability Review

•   FT: Brussels outlines plan to facilitate seizure of Russian oligarchs’ frozen assets

•   FT: EU seeks new legal pathways for Russian asset confiscation

•   FT: Turkey will not be ‘rushed’ to back Nato expansion ahead of summit

•   FT: Boris Johnson accepts ‘full responsibility’ for partygate

•   FT: UK economic outlook worsens as income inequality rises

•   FT: Sunak to unveil emergency aid over soaring household energy bills

•   FT: UK energy suppliers braced for backlash as bills set to soar again

•   FT: UK to review Chinese takeover of semiconductor plant

•   FT: Russia raises pension and minimum wage as inflation hits economy

•   FT: How hubris and Covid transformed Sri Lanka from ‘donor darling’ to default

•   FT: Pakistan seeks to renegotiate IMF loan as food prices surge

•   FT: Saudi Arabia to use oil windfall to bolster sovereign fund

•   FT: Japanese state fund considers Toshiba takeover as bid deadline nears

•   FT: China’s Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo trim smartphone orders by 20%

•   FT: Pfizer warns of ‘constant waves’ of Covid as complacency grows

•   Bloomberg: Inflation Forces Desperate Leaders to Try and Soften the Blow

•   Bloomberg: US’s China-Tariff Review Likely to Take Months, Aide Says

•   Bloomberg: Supply Woes Raise Recession Risk as Fed Rejects Inflation Nuance

•   Bloomberg: Lagarde’s Rate Plan Wins ECB Backing But Big Hikes Stay in Play

•   Bloomberg: Goodhart Slams ECB’s Ultra-Loose Policy, Warns of ‘Very Difficult’ Task for Officials

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Knot Says He Fully Supports Lagarde’s Monetary-Policy Plan

•   Bloomberg: Aiming ECB Rate at Neutral Risks Hurting Economy, Panetta Says

•   Bloomberg: BOE Needs to Do More But Should Be Wary of Recession, Pill Says

•   Bloomberg: China’s Xi Holds Rare Meeting With UN Human Rights Official

•   Bloomberg: China Growth Target in Tatters as Covid Zero Hammers Economy

•   Bloomberg: Economists Cut China’s Growth Forecasts on Covid Lockdowns

•   Bloomberg: How China Is Seeking to Revive a $2.4 Trillion Property Market

•   Bloomberg: War in Ukraine Puts Africa at Risk of Stagflation, Debt Distress

•   Bloomberg: Biden’s Iran Envoy Says Nuclear Talks Aren’t Dead But Almost

•   Bloomberg: Orban, Empowered, Orders Companies to Hand Over ‘Extra Profit’

•   Bloomberg: Covid Lockdown Costs Shanghai Its China Currency Trading Crown

•   Bloomberg: Russia Poised to Act Against Ruble Rebound That’s Gone Too Far

•   Bloomberg: Traditional Wall Street Spars with FTX Over Derivatives Plan

•   Bloomberg: US Drivers Begin to Balk at Record Gas Prices

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s Yamal LNG Halts Some Shipments to Ex-Gazprom Arm

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s New ‘Green Economy’ Bond May Fund Nuclear Projects

•   Reuters: World Bank's Malpass says war in Ukraine may trigger global recession

•   Reuters: China's forex regulator says foreign outflows 'under control'

•   Reuters: Analysis: As U.S. economy's exceptionalism fades, so does the dollar

•   Reuters: Analysis: Beyond Trump, Trumpism is the winner in midterm primaries

•   CNBC: ‘Downright scary and untenable’: Commerce secretary warns U.S. needs to secure a future for its chip industry

•   CNBC: ‘Kissinger still lives in the 20th century’: Ukraine hits back at suggestion it should cede land to Russia

•   Fox Business: Growing food shortage is ‘dire,’ IMF managing director warns

•   SCMP: China-India border: why another Chinese bridge may be the latest friction point

•   SCMP: Shanghai’s Covid-19 death toll returns to zero while new cases decline a week before lockdown’s June 1 end

•   SCMP: China’s carbon-neutral plan lacks urgency and transparency, EU chamber report says

•   SCMP: Hainan city dubbed China’s best performing economy as ‘burden of economic output’ shifts from other regions

•   Nikkei Asia: Mitsubishi Electric quality scandal widens to 70% of its Japan factories

•   Nikkei Asia: Asia-Pacific climate leaders: Which companies cut emissions?

•   Nikkei Asia: Apple's iPhone development schedule hit by China lockdowns

•   Nikkei Asia: State-backed battery maker gives competitive jolt to China's CATL

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Xi envoy Wang Qishan visits Seoul with message for U.S.

•   Mainichi: Japan economic report drops mention of coronavirus

•   Economic Times: Economists put Q4 growth at 3.5-5.5% on rise in commodity prices, Omicron

•   매경(P1): 대기업·중기 '新동반성장' 용산서 손잡았다

•   매경(P1): 전세 난민'에…송파 강서 광진 빌라까지 동났다

•   매경: 서울 아닌 동탄에 4000대1…분양대란에 '공공 줍줍' 과열

•   매경(P1): "증강현실 안경 스마트폰 넘는 세상 보여줄것"

•   매경: 진화된 AI, 더 힘준 AR…'구글 하드웨어'로 세계인 잡겠다

•   매경: 더 중요해진 클라우드…러 공격 직전 우크라 디지털인프라 대피

•   매경: "탄소중립, 비용 아닌 투자로 봐야 기회"

•   매경: "기업 대차대조표에 데이터 활용도 반영해야"

•   매경: 국회가 알아서 수천억씩 증액해주니…국토부도 마음 놓는다는 OO예산

•   매경: UAM은 알겠는데…RAM까지 개척한다는 현대차그룹

•   매경: 국민연금 수익률 석달째 마이너스…열달치 연금 25조 날렸다

•   매경: 전문가는 어디가고…정권 입맛따라 낙하산 CEO 판쳐

•   매경: 주식시장에 목매는 연금, 천수답 수익률 못벗어나…연금투자 다각화 절실

•   매경: 월요일 출근보다 더 무서운 그것…20번 중 16번 떨어진 코스피

•   매경: 이달 코스닥 2% 하락했지만…대장株는 웃었다

•   매경: [Industry Review] 中경제 먹구름에…韓日로 눈돌리는 사모펀드

•   매경: [Industry Review] "애플 잡겠다" 샤오미의 자신감…그 힘은 '커뮤니티와 팬덤'이다

•   매경: SMR·가스터빈…두산 5조 신규 투자

•   한경(P1): "한국형 전투기서 위성 쏘아올린다"

•   한경(P1): 벤처투자, 파티는 끝났다…"살아남을 방법을 찾아라"

•   한경(P1): 기막힌 국책硏 평가

•   한경: IPO, LG엔솔 빼면 작년 8분의 1 수준…투자금 회수도 막혀

•   한경: "겨울이 오고있다" 직방·부릉 자금조달 난항…몸값 '셀프 삭감'도

•   한경: "가능성보다 숫자 보여줘야"…비용 줄이며 혹한기 대비

•   한경: 스타벅스 최초로 지하철역에 매장 들어서자…쏟아진 반응

•   한경: 유커 맞이 기대했는데…긴장하는 면세점업계

•   한경: 은행 신용대출 금리 年5% 돌파…주담대 주춤

•   한경: 금융당국發 'ETF 옥석가리기' 본격화되나

•   한경: 개인파산 급감? 알고보니…"사채 써야할 판" 자영업자 하소연

•   서경(P1): 文정부 5년…기업 법인세 12조 늘때 공기업은 0.5조 줄었다

•   서경: LH 빼면 공기업 법인세 1兆 안돼…"경영 곪는데도 구조조정 무풍지대"

•   서경: 수십만가구 공급책 쏟아냈지만…재원 조달·이행계획 '깜깜'

•   서경: 韓총리 "중대법 적절한지 들여다봐야…공공요금 통제는 열등한 방법"

•   서경: 삼성전자, 시스템 반도체 R&D 인력 2배 늘린다

•   서경: [단독] 'AI 토끼' 온다…베일 벗은 네이버 챗봇

•   서경: 빅브러더가 된 AI… 재택근무 김대리 근태 점수를 매긴다

•   서경: 퇴임 코앞인데… 인사권 휘두르는 정재훈 한수원 사장

•   조선(P1): “미사일엔 미사일로” 5년 만에 韓美공조

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 코로나 잦아들자 찬밥된 오토바이·헬스기구

•   조선비즈: [하반기 경제전망]①“올해 韓 성장률 2% 초중반” 77%…”4% 초반 물가 상승률” 61%

•   조선비즈: [하반기 경제전망]② “물가 상승 추세 1년 안 간다” 65%…“물가 못잡으면 성장 어렵다” 97%

•   조선비즈: [하반기 경제전망]③ “최대 경제 리스크는 물가 상승”… “규제 완화, 최우선 정책 과제”

•   조선비즈: [하반기 경제전망]④ “美 Fed, 빅스텝 2번 밟는다…한은, 기준금리 2.50%까지 올려야”

•   인베스트조선: 경기침체는 상수일까 변수일까? 엇갈리는 전망에 시장도 갈 지(之)자

•   중앙: 항공권 2배 '베케플레이션'..."여름휴가 안가고 만다" 곳곳 한탄

•   중앙: 1년 기다리느니 중고차 산다? 신차 값에 팔리는 중고차

•   중앙: “민간 발전사 이윤 빼 한전 적자 메운다니…법적 대응할 것”

•   중앙: [Data & Now] 중기 정규직 임금, 대기업 비정규직보다 적어

•   동아: 빅데이터로 메뉴 짜고, 로봇 서빙… 요즘 동네가게

•   한국(P1): '마지막 문턱' 넘지 못한 누리호, 성능검증위성 싣고 내달 15일 재비상

•   한국(P1): "우리 장관 인사 검증을 왜 법무부가?" 세종 관가도 의구심

•   한국: 50년 주담대에 미래소득 반영까지...금융당국, 'DSR 우회로' 찾기 안간힘

•   국민: PC·모바일→데이터센터… 메모리 반도체 수요 ‘대이동’

•   국민: 엑시노스 버리고 새출발? 팹리스 M&A?… 삼성 AP 미래는

•   국민: [단독] “한국만 규제 어렵다”… 특금법 시행령 검토 헛구호되나

•   서울(P1): 뛰는 식용유값… 우는 치킨집

•   서울: “코로나 여름 재유행 땐 10만~20만명… 병상 대응 가능”

•   서울: 3高 파도 속 정유·반도체 기업 ‘표정 관리’

•   머니투데이(P1): 돈줄 끊긴 바이오 생태계…"이러다 다 죽어" 곡소리만 커진다

•   머니투데이(P1): "루나·테라는 시작일 뿐...스테이블코인發 금융위기 올 수도"

•   머니투데이: 18개국 민간 수소협력체, 韓에서 뭉쳤다..GHIAA 출범

•   머니투데이: 野 '부동산4법' 뜯어보니...정부의 종부세 감면 장치 없앴다

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 지하철·버스 통합정기권 내년 도입…교통비 최대 38% 절약

•   헤럴드경제: 나랏빚 이자도 껑충…재정절벽 위기

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 오를 곳만 팔린다?... 서울 아파트 매매 상승 거래가 60%

•   디지털타임스(P1): [기획] 文정부 엇나간 정책 희생양된 LNG발전

•   이데일리: [단독]경제안보TF 꾸린 전경련, 첫 목표는 '기술유출 방지책' 마련

•   이데일리: 원희룡이 내놓는다는 임대차법 보완책..어떤 내용 담기나

•   이데일리: "손실보상 소급적용" 강경한 野…`역대 최대 추경` 더 늘어날까

•   이데일리: "韓경제 이미 스태그플레이션 진입…노동경직성에 악화할 수도"

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 1만8275명 확진…내일 1만명대 가능성

•   연합: 작년 주택용 전력판매량 2년 전보다 10%↑…코로나 '집콕' 영향

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성SDI, 3조원 투자 美 배터리 생산 '첫발'

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Hussein Tadicha Wario): Making Green Energy Safe for Pastoralists

•   Project Syndicate(Ebere Okereke): Has the US Damaged Africa’s COVID-19 Vaccination Drive?

•   Project Syndicate(Jeffrey Frankel): Get Ready for Reverse Currency Wars

•   Project Syndicate(Stephen S. Roach): Jerome Powell’s Volcker Deficit

•   FT(Editorial Board): Partygate report reveals a prime minister unfit to lead

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Are consumers . . . just fine?

•   FT(Andriy Yermak): Now is the time to help Ukraine by stepping up sanctions on Russia

•   FT(Hilary Allen): We’re asking the wrong questions about stablecoins

•   FT(Helen Thomas): Is the ‘subscription economy’ going to feel the Netflix effect?

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Breaking Russia’s Ukrainian Grain Blockade

•   WSJ(Daniel Henninger): Joe Biden’s Train-Wreck Economy

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Kissinger vs. Soros on Russia and Ukraine

•   WSJ(Karl Rove): How to Win Without Trump—or Biden

•   WP(Charles Lane): A scientist’s inconvenient truths about decarbonizing the economy

•   WP(Brett V. Benson): Why it makes sense for the U.S. to not commit to defending Taiwan

•   WP(Jason Willick): Why Trump’s 2024 chances are even worse than Georgia suggests

•   Bloomberg(Mihir Sharma): The US Can’t Beat China If It’s Scared of Trade

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Inflation Will Have More Than One Wave Before Stocks and Bonds Look Safe Again

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): Is George Soros Right About Xi Jinping’s Third Term?

•   Bloomberg(Leonid Bershidsky): Why So Few Big Rats Have Fled Putin’s Ship Over Ukraine War

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): The Fed Is in No Mood to Take a Break on Inflation

•   MarketWatch(Peter Morici): The Fed must boost rates by a full percentage point at every meeting to bring down inflation and avoid a job-killing recession

•   MarketWatch(Brian Bethune): Don’t believe the hype: The economy isn’t headed toward a recession, and the Fed isn’t ‘behind the curve’ on interest rates