Global Economic Monitor 220511

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher in choppy session as inflation data looms

※   All eyes on U.S. CPI data on Wednesday

※   Peloton falls as CEO says business "thinly capitalized"

※   Indexes: Dow down 0.3%, S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 1%

•   Hong Kong: China Tech Stocks Slide as Growth Woes, Global Rout Grip Traders

•   Natural gas: Gas Prices Surge to Another High

•   Metals: Demand headwinds push aluminum to five-month low

•   Grains: Chicago grains firm after planting-inspired decline

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin, Other Cryptocurrencies Stabilize After Multiday Selloff

•   한국: 코스피 17개월만에 2,600선 붕괴…급락 출발 뒤 낙폭 줄여

[Indicators]

•   US Q1 Household debt: U.S. household debt nears $16 trln, but mortgage, auto loan demand wanes - NY Fed

•   US Apr. NFIB Business optimism index: U.S. Small-Business Optimism Index Holds at Lowest Since 2020

•   Germany May ZEW economic sentiment: German Investor Confidence Stabilizes as War in Ukraine Drags On

•   Japan Mar. Household spending: Japan's March household spending falls 2.3%, 1st decline in 3 months

•   한국 1분기 제조업 국내공급: 제조업 수입의존도 30.8% 역대 최대… 주요 부품 수입 늘어

•   한국 3월 경상수지: "가뜩이나 환율 치솟는데"...경상수지 2년만에 적자 위기

[News]

•   WSJ: Nearly Encircled, Ukraine’s Last Stronghold in Luhansk Resists Russian Onslaught

•   WSJ: U.S. Spy Chief Sees Putin Preparing for Long Fight in Ukraine, as Russia Strikes Odessa

※   Avril Haines said Moscow’s recent pivot to the east is likely a bid to regain the initiative, and saw little chance for a near-term peace deal

※   White House: Remarks By President Biden on the Economy

•   WSJ: House to Vote on Ukraine Aid Package but No Deal in Senate

•   WSJ: Biden Stresses Contrast With GOP Economic Agenda as Midterm Challenges Grow

•   WSJ: Yellen Renews Call for Stablecoin Regulation After TerraUSD Stumble

•   WSJ: Senate Advances Fed Nominee Lisa Cook to Final Confirmation Vote

•   WSJ: Fed Official Says Central Bank Must Contain Inflation

•   WSJ: Fed’s Williams Says Lowering Inflation Is Central Bank’s Main Mission

•   WSJ: How the Inflation Rate Is Measured: 477 Government Workers at Grocery Stores

•   WSJ: Shanghai’s Covid Lockdown Leaves Thousands Sleeping in Its Streets

•   WSJ: Tesla Among Biggest Losers as China’s Car Sales Fall on Covid Lockdowns

•   WSJ: Another Marcos Rises in the Philippines, but How Does He Plan to Govern?

•   WSJ: Hungary’s Orban Threatens EU Unity on Russia

•   WSJ: Western Economies Are Creaking Under High Oil and Gas Prices, With No Relief in Sight

•   WSJ: The Mortgage Refi Boom Is Running Out

•   WSJ: Pensions’ Bad Year Poised to Get Worse

•   WSJ: SoftBank’s $100 Billion Fund Lags Behind After Five Years of Investing

•   WSJ: ‘Buy the Dip’ Believers Are Tested by Market’s Downward Slide

•   WSJ: China Currency Crisis May Get a Sequel

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Says He Would Reverse Donald Trump’s Twitter Ban

※   ‘I think that was a mistake because it alienated a large part of the country,’ he says

•   WSJ: Apple Is Discontinuing the iPod After a More Than Two Decade Run

•   WSJ: Americans Planning Summer Travel Face a New Hurdle: High Inflation

•   WSJ: Tech Industry Warns That More Remote-Work Jobs Are Headed Out of U.S.

•   WSJ: Some Covid-19 Patients Relapse After Taking Paxlovid, Puzzling Doctors

•   WSJ: Caterpillar Works to Turn Old Engines Into New Profit

•   NYT: Japan Has Long Sought More Inflation and a Weak Yen. But Not Like This.

•   NYT: Farewell to the iPod

•   NYT: Netflix Tells Employees Ads May Come by the End of 2022

•   NYT: Our In-Person Shopping Hurts Big Tech

•   WP: Sweden and Finland consider joining NATO

•   WP: In Ukraine, gas shortages further complicate daily life

•   FT: Food protectionism fuels global inflation and hunger

•   FT: Bundesbank boss calls for July rate rise to tackle ‘disturbing’ inflation

•   FT: WHO chief warns that China’s zero-Covid strategy is not sustainable

•   FT: Flash floods in ‘gateway’ port Durban add to South Africa’s economic woes

•   FT: Trade secrets: oil majors keep quiet on a key profit driver

•   FT: Chinese carmaker BYD cuts production over pollution claims

•   FT: Powering electric cars: the race to mine lithium in America’s backyard

•   Bloomberg: EU Seeks to Boost Solar Energy to Cut Russian Gas, Draft Shows

•   Bloomberg: Russia Trains Missiles on Ukraine’s Quiet Zone to Target Trade

•   Bloomberg: Biden Fights Bid to Boost Oil Drilling, Climate Goal at Risk

•   Bloomberg: Mester Backs Half-Point Moves, Bigger Ones If Inflation Persists

※   Says she doesn’t rule out 75 basis-point move ‘forever’

•   Bloomberg: Draghi Says Ukraine War to Bring ‘Drastic’ Change to Europe

•   Bloomberg: Ukraine’s Economy to Drop 30% This Year From War, EBRD Says

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Villeroy Says Governments Must Tackle Debt as Rates Rise

•   Bloomberg: UK to Extend Cap for Energy Bills to Protect Households

•   Bloomberg: Taiwan’s Army Learning Lessons from Ukraine War, US General Says

•   Bloomberg: Japan Missing Out on $37 Billion Tourist Windfall From Weak Yen

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Says Impact of ‘Intense’ Rate Hikes Is Still to Be Seen

•   Bloomberg: India RBI Seen Prudent in Spending Forex Reserves to Defend Rupee

•   Bloomberg: Rising Inflation Chips Away at Bank Indonesia’s Policy Room

•   Bloomberg: South Africa Set for Worst Year of Power Cuts as Plants Fail

•   Bloomberg: Wall Street Is Trying Desperately to Catch Up With Stock Rout

•   Bloomberg: China’s Dollar-Bond Misery Is Set to Deepen With Fed Tightening

•   Bloomberg: Credit-Market Clashes Are Getting Uglier, Dirtier and More Common

•   Bloomberg: Bets Increase on Euro Slide to Parity With Dollar

•   Bloomberg: Ukraine, Russia Gas Clash Escalates Threat to Europe’s Supply

•   Bloomberg: US Crude Output Growth Expected to Slow Amid Soaring Costs

•   Bloomberg: OPEC Kingpins Warn About World’s Dwindling Energy Capacity

•   Bloomberg: Chinese Commodities Slump as Beijing’s Response Is Found Wanting

•   Bloomberg: Sony Struggles to Make Enough PlayStations as Supply Disrupted

•   Bloomberg: Intel Debuts Data-Center Chips Aimed at Fending Off Nvidia, AMD

•   Bloomberg: Solar Probe ‘Most Disruptive Event’ for US Industry, Rystad Says

•   Bloomberg: There’s a New Way to Measure a Company’s Climate Risk

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Don’t Expect Chinese Stimulus to Save the Global Economy

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Inflation Is So Bad Democrats Want Biden to ‘Do More’ for Midterms

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Setting up a national coal reserve is no longer a priority for Germany

•   Reuters: Dropping zero-COVID policy in China without safeguards risks 1.5m lives - study

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Malaysia may cut palm oil export tax by half amid global supply crisis

•   Reuters: For hype-wary IBM, quantum-computing sales are close, but not too close

•   Reuters: Analysis: Marcos as Philippine president a boon for China, awkward for U.S.

•   Reuters: Analysis: For some European states, rising debt costs rekindle 2011 crisis memories

•   Reuters: Analysis: Fragile won, rising U.S. rates point to faster Bank of Korea tightening

•   Reuters: Analysis: Pain not over for U.S. bond market but some see yields nearing their peaks

•   AP: EXPLAINER: What caused Sri Lanka’s economic collapse?

•   CNBC: UAE, Saudi energy ministers hit back at ‘NOPEC’ bill, say it could send oil prices surging

•   CNBC: Housing supply is finally improving, as high prices and rising rates weigh on sales

•   CNBC: Philippine central bank chief says he’s ‘not concerned’ about recent peso weakness

•   MarketWatch: Corporate America’s debt sinks to lowest prices since 2008. Could it be a canary in the coal mine?

•   SCMP: Ahead of Quad summit, US hopes Russia’s war and China’s assertiveness have shaken India

•   SCMP: US State Department edits Taiwan fact sheet, angering Beijing for ‘hollowing’ one-China policy

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: economic toll of China’s latest outbreak ‘10 times more severe’ than Wuhan in 2020

※   Coronavirus-driven disruptions to economic activity have affected 160 million people this year and cost 18 trillion yuan (US$2.68 trillion), according to a top economist

•   SCMP: China’s big city plan for Covid testing just a 15-minute walk away

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan plans first carbon capture and storage project

•   Nikkei Asia: Panasonic weighs building new U.S. battery plant for Tesla

•   Nikkei Asia: Toyota to slash May output targets, halt some Japan operations

•   Nikkei Asia: TSMC plans another price hike amid inflation concerns

•   Economic Times: Inflation in India ‘hot’, faces high and rising underlying inflation: Report

•   매경(P1): 자유가 바로 선 나라, 과학으로 성장하는 나라

•   매경: 尹정부 첫 당정협의…1호 안건은 '자영업자 보상' 35조 추경

•   매경: "반도체·AI·배터리·바이오서 초격차"…기업도 새 다짐

•   매경: [단독] 탄소배출 할당량 잘못 계산한 환경부…반년만에 뒷북 수정

•   매경: 재정적자 역주행…미국 23% 줄이는 동안 한국은 두배 늘었다

•   매경: SK·한화·현대…석탄 버리고 LNG발전 전환

•   매경: 큰 맘먹고 맥북프로 주문했는데…"배송까지 두 달 기다리세요"

•   매경: 고가 아파트값, 저가 10배…5년새 집값 2배로 벌어져

•   한경(P1): 금융위원장 김주현 내정…산업은행 회장 황영기 유력

•   한경(P1): [단독] "카카오 잡자"…KB, 티맵에 1000억 투자

•   한경: "새 정부 첫해 전세·집값 다 오른다"

•   한경: 43조 '글로벌 수소 동맹' 뜬다…현대차·SK·블랙스톤 총출동

•   한경: 삼성물산, 세계 1위 SMR 기업과 '맞손'

•   한경: "韓선 디즈니·애플도 고전하네"…우회로 택한 HBO·파라마운트

•   한경: 삼성전자, 512GB CXL D램 첫 개발

•   한경: "2억 내린 급매도 안 팔려요"…서울 아파트 쌓여간다

•   한경: 돌아오는 외국인노동자…中企 현장 숨통 트이나

•   한경: 美 확산 오미크론 새 변이, 국내 확산 '비상'

•   한경: 돈벌어도 가난한 1인가구…천정부지 솟은 생활비 탓

•   서경: 빚투 부메랑 맞나…20대 카드론 연체율 '평균의 2배'

•   서경: [단독] 반도체 사장이 KAIST 찾아 강연…삼성, 인재 확보 속도전

•   서경: "명장은 정년이 없다"…삼성전자, 새 인사제도 시행

•   서경: 농업도 디지털화 시대…자율주행에 NFT까지

•   서경: "코스피 바닥권이지만…외국인 수급개선 안보여 당분간 관망을"

•   서경: "민간 공급 줄어들라"…국토부, 주택공영개발 재도입 '난색'

•   조선: “반도체 학생 2배 늘면 뭐하나, 교수가 없는데”

•   조선: 화면이 휘었다 펴지고… 두루마리처럼 말리고

•   조선: 외국인, 한국 채권도 시큰둥

•   조선비즈: 尹정부, 2%대 성장 전망 ‘개봉 박두’…기재부, 한은 보다 낮은 성장률 제시할까

•   조선비즈: 코로나로 멈춘 한중일 정상회의, 올해 열리나…中 “한중일 FTA 추진”

•   인베스트조선: 바닥 찍은 채권시장?…‘고금리’ 채권으로 눈 돌리는 투자자들

•   중앙: 석탄값 너마저…E쇼크 온다

•   중앙: 물가상승→임금인상→물가상승 ‘마의 악순환’ 시작되나

•   중앙: 항공권값 왜 안 내리나 했더니…야간 비행금지 시간이 발목

•   동아: 한국 조선 수주잔량 688척… 6년만에 최대

•   동아: [DBR]“기후 리스크, 화폐-금융 안전성까지 흔들수도”

•   동아: [DBR]‘그린워싱’ 리스크에 대응하려면

•   한국(P1): 美, 윤석열 정부 출범에... ‘한미동맹 강화’, ‘북한 주시’ 메시지

•   국민: “공매도 개혁 미흡” 뿔난 개미들

•   국민: 연봉 자랑하던 IT업계… 결국 성장 막는 부메랑으로

•   서울(P1): [단독] 바이든 한일 순방 때 반중협의체 IPEF 출범

•   서울: [단독] IPEF 가입, 한미 포괄적 전략동맹 첫 단추… 북핵엔 원칙적 강경 기조

•   서울: 북적북적 손님… 일손 달려 끙끙

•   세계: “예측도 90%대”… 신속항원 ‘확진 인정’ 유지

•   머니투데이(P1): 르노, 친환경 승부수 '지리와 합작'...'中 자본' 우려 넘을까

•   머니투데이: "지금은 관망할 때"… MMF에 180조 뭉칫돈 몰렸다

•   머니투데이: 상장사 2분기 실적도 웃을까

•   머니투데이: 과도한 공모가에 상장철회... IPO 주관사 시름 깊어진다

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 새정부, 7일 격리의무 해제하나

•   파이낸셜뉴스: ‘이산화탄소 운반선’ 띄우는 조선 빅3

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 로봇이 나르고 AI가 자동 분류… 택배터미널 ‘스마트’ 경쟁

•   아시아경제: 에어택시·드론택배' 시대 임박…복잡해지는 하늘은 안전할까?[과학을읽다]

•   디지털타임스(P1): 공공기관 절반 `적자`…한전, 고유가에 5.8조 손실

•   디지털타임스: 尹 효과?… 30대 그룹 `검찰출신` 사외이사 늘었다

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]'제2의 현산 사태' 막자..감리제도 뜯어 고친다

•   이데일리: 주 52시간 유연해진다…尹정부 출범에 노동 국정과제 속도

•   이데일리: ‘전세계 탄소 1% 감축에 기여’ SK, 그린 사업 광폭 행보

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 4만2451명 확진…어제보다 6천40명 감소

•   더구루: [단독] 두산밥캣, 美 제2공장 짓는다…"북미 건설기계 수요 대응"

•   전자신문(P1): [알림]코인 전(傳) vs 코인 쩐(錢) : 코인의 허상과 실체

•   전자신문: 반도체 산업, '규제 리스크' 온다…핵심소재 대란 예고

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Daron Acemoglu): Daron Acemoglu Says More…

•   Project Syndicate(Barry Eichengreen): Shaping a Marshall Plan for Ukraine

•   Project Syndicate(Richard Haass): Is Diplomacy Between Russia and the West Still Possible?

•   Project Syndicate(Arvind Subramanian, Josh Felman): The West Has Got Its Russia Sanctions Wrong

•   Project Syndicate(Jeffrey D. Sachs): Ending the War of Attrition in Ukraine

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): What is a ‘softish’ landing?

•   FT(Valentina Romei): UK’s rising cost of living puts brakes on consumer spending

•   FT(Richard Bernstein): You are what your real fed funds rate says you are

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): A High-Speed Electric Vehicle Crash

•   WSJ(Steve Milloy): Companies Should Come Clean on Their Ties to China

•   NYT(Tanya Kozyreva): How diplomacy I Spent Weeks on Ukraine’s Front Lines. Everything Has Changed.

•   WP(David Ignatius): How diplomacy in Armenia could help ease U.S.-Russia tensions

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): To Hobble Putin, Accelerate the Brain Drain

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): Bitcoin’s ‘Fire of Truth’ Gets Soaked by a Bucket of Water

•   CNN(Evan Greer): Elon Musk's Twitter takeover exposes the real threat to free speech: Big Tech monopolies

•   MarketWatch(Jurica Dujmovic): The metaverse is inevitable — we have been heading toward it for a long time. This is the good and the bad when the physical and virtual worlds collide