Global Economic Monitor 220510

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks and oil dive as investors hunt safe havens

※   Dollar loses ground after hitting 20-year high

※   Stocks tumble with Nasdaq leading Wall St drop

※   U.S. yields lose ground after touching Nov 2018 levels

※   Oil tumbles, gold, bitcoin fall

•   US: Tech giants lost more than $1 trillion in value in the last three trading days

•   China: Yuan Sinks 1% Against Dollar as Covid-Slowdown Concerns Worsen

•   Metals: Industrial metals tumble as China's COVID woes fuel demand fears

•   Grains: Wheat higher on supply woes; corn, soybeans ease

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Price Falls 55% From Its High

•   DRAM: D램값 10주째 하락… 반도체 반등 ‘적신호’

•   한국: 코스피, 1% 넘게 밀려 2,610대도 '위험'…17개월 만에 최저치

[Indicators]

•   US Mar. Wholesale inventories: U.S. wholesale inventories rise strongly; first-quarter GDP seen revised slightly up

•   US Apr. Consumer inflation expectations: Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Rose in April, Says New York Fed

•   China Apr. Balance of trade: China’s Trade Slows as Demand Drops and Covid-19 Lockdowns Hit Supply Chains

※   The weakest export growth in almost two years reflects the impact of inflation on foreign consumers

※   Bloomberg: China Oil Imports Rise as More Russian Supply Reaches Shore

•   Indonesia Q1 GDP: Inflation Catching Up to Indonesia’s Exports-Driven Recovery

•   한국 4월 고용행정통계: 4월 실업급여 지급 9722억… 전년 동기대비 16% 감소

[News]

•   WSJ: Putin Uses Russia’s Victory Day Parade to Justify Invasion of Ukraine

※   Speaking in Red Square, the Kremlin leader said Russia was under threat from the West

•   WSJ: Putin’s Ukraine Adventure Unleashes Nuclear Genies

•   WSJ: From Tycoons to Pop Singers, Ukrainians of All Walks Come Together on the Front Lines

•   WSJ: House to Vote on Nearly $40 Billion Ukraine Aid Package

•   WSJ: Inflation, Sharp Rise in Interest Rates Pose Financial Risks, Fed Says

※   Central bank identifies near-term threats in Monday’s Financial Stability Report

※   Fed: Financial Stability Report

•   WSJ: Covid-19 Cases Rise in Parts of U.S. With High Vaccination Rates

•   WSJ: Shanghai Tightens Covid-19 Rules as Beijing Calls for Victory Over Virus

※   Residents say authorities in Shanghai, now in its sixth week under strict lockdown, have begun forcing more people into centralized quarantine facilities

•   WSJ: A Deposit Rate Shopping Spree Might Be Kicking Off

•   WSJ: Cryptocurrency TerraUSD Falls Below Fixed Value, Triggering Selloff

•   WSJ: As Stock Markets Dive and Inflation Rises, It Pays to Automate Your Finances

•   WSJ: Chinese Companies Boost Returns to Shareholders

•   WSJ: Fed Rate Hikes Are Good for Banks—Unless They End in a Recession

•   WSJ: Apple’s China Engineers Keep Products Flowing as Covid Shuts Out U.S. Staff

•   WSJ: Palantir Growth Slows, Sending Stock Down More Than 20%

•   NYT: Biden signs bill to allow lending arms to Ukraine, which will speed up shipments.

•   NYT: U.S.-China Cold War Has Japan Caught in the Middle

•   NYT: It’s the most consequential election in the Philippines in recent history.

•   NYT: Why the Stock Market Keeps Plunging

•   NYT: Stock market’s plunge continues on new concerns about global economy.

•   WP: India tries to adapt to extreme heat but is paying a heavy price

•   FT: EU drops plans to ban shipping Russian crude in face of opposition

※   European Commission struggles to win over Hungary’s Orbán to phased-in curbs on oil imports

•   FT: World on course to breach 1.5C warming threshold within five years

•   FT: Eurozone’s long-stagnating wages start to rise as cost of living soars

•   FT: Study puts cost of halting Russian gas supply at 12% of German GDP

•   FT: EU should seize Russian reserves to rebuild Ukraine, top diplomat says

•   FT: Sweden’s Social Democrats agonise over Nato membership

•   FT: Macron calls for new European ‘community’ including Ukraine

•   FT: Europe Aims to Revive Trade Deals to Secure Allies

•   FT: BoE rate setter warns UK inflation ‘uncomfortably high’

•   FT: Northern Ireland’s DUP rejects appeal to join power-sharing executive

•   FT: The Fed has changed its message, but not the way you think

•   FT: Ukraine war cuts foreign investors off from their Russian assets

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Seeks to Bolster Latin American Economies to Curb Migration

•   Bloomberg: Biden Team Sees Tilt to China Buoyed as Putin Falters in Ukraine

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Says Ukraine War Brings Uncertainty for Global Economy

•   Bloomberg: Missing: U.S. Labor-Force Tally Finds 2 Million Unaccounted For

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Bostic Says No Need to Move Faster Than Half-Point Hikes

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s Economy Facing Worst Contraction Since 1994

•   Bloomberg: Lagarde Spurns ECB Staff Plea for Pay Rises Linked to Prices

•   Bloomberg: U.K. Inflation Crisis Will Last Years, Not Months, Haldane Says

•   Bloomberg: PBOC Reiterates It Will Proactively Deal With Economic Issues

•   Bloomberg: Pig Prices Jump in China Even as Lockdowns Restrain Demand

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Kishida Says Phasing Out Russian Oil to Take Time

•   Bloomberg: India Central Bank Intervenes to Defend Rupee, Ready to Do More

•   Bloomberg: Saudi Gloom Shows Toll Inflation Is Taking During Economic Boom

•   Bloomberg: Gasoline Prices Surge Anew in U.S. as Supply Concerns Deepen

•   Bloomberg: One Corner of the Trucking Market Suggests the Economy Is Slowing

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Germany prepares crisis plan for abrupt end to Russian gas - sources

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Germany, Qatar at odds over terms in talks on LNG supply deal -sources

•   Reuters: China says it conducted exercises near Taiwan

•   Reuters: EM economic growth to slow sharply this quarter -JPMorgan

•   Reuters: Brazil's Petrobras raises diesel prices, testing Bolsonaro

•   Reuters: EU plans one-year renewable energy permits for faster green shift

•   Reuters: Meta mulls reducing money it gives news organizations - The Information

•   Reuters: Chipmaker Infineon raises 2022 revenue outlook after results beat

•   Reuters: Analysis: Markets must face up to tightening financial conditions

•   Reuters: Analysis: Shanghai COVID crisis puts political spotlight on key Xi ally

•   Reuters: Analysis: Whispers of S&P 500 bear market grow louder as U.S. stock decline continues

•   AP: EXPLAINER: Recession fears grow. But how high is the risk?

•   CNBC: In today’s environment, the notion that the stock market isn’t the economy doesn’t hold up anymore

•   CNBC: UK economy ‘one of the most vulnerable’ in the world right now due to mortgage trends, strategist says

•   CNBC: Meta’s first store aims to lure consumers to the metaverse

•   MarketWatch: How low will it go? These charts warn the Dow may have a long way before bottoming out

•   Fox Business: Home affordability will continue to be a problem, market expert predicts

•   SCMP: EU and Japan to forge united front against China and Russia at summit

•   SCMP: China’s coronavirus controls are ‘throttling US business confidence’, American lobby groups says

•   SCMP: China food security: Beijing doubles down on domestic soybean push amid self-sufficiency drive

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan faces dilemma in Sakhalin as G-7 vows to quit Russian crude

•   Nikkei Asia: Sony partially restarts Shanghai factory as lockdown continues

•   Nikkei Asia: MacBook, iPad suppliers' April revenue plunges amid China lockdown

•   Mainichi: Bank of Japan members see need to persist with easing as inflation nears 2%

•   매경(P1): 尹, 10일 0시 용산 벙커서 집무 시작

•   매경: '반쪽 내각' 尹정부, 차관급 인사 단행…'차관 내각' 체제로 출발

•   매경: 12일 첫 국무회의 예정…추경안 의결한다

•   매경: 韓 스태그플레이션 위험 68%…尹정부 재정지출 속도조절 필요

•   매경: "법개정 없이 가능한 정책부터 챙겨라"

•   매경(P1): 중국 몽니에...대한항공 아시아나 합병 위기

•   매경: 자국 우선주의 확산에 대형 M&A 잇단 무산 위기

•   매경(P1): [단독] 코스모신소재, 배터리 전쟁 속 美서 年 1만톤 리튬광산 확보

•   매경: 개인사업자 빚 연체 증가…코로나發 부실 터지나

•   매경: "올해 물가상승률 5%, 기준금리 2.25%"

•   매경: "올 한전 적자 대폭 늘어날것…전기료 못 올리면 국민부담"

•   매경: 투자고수 총출동…'매경엠플러스' 머니쇼 실시간 중계

•   매경: 尹정부 규제완화 기대…최대 화두 강남재건축

•   매경: "현대차, 美조지아에 전기차공장 건설 협의"

•   매경: LG 전략보고회 3년만에 부활…구광모 회장 주재로 사업점검

•   매경: 공기중 이산화탄소로 플라스틱 만들겠다는 회사

•   매경: "규제개혁 체감 안돼…핵심은 중대재해법"

•   매경: '시총 100조 증발 사건'…삼성 SK, 이것에 당했다

•   매경: 원자재값 상승 직격탄…대형 건설사도 '전전긍긍'

•   매경: "디지털 통합 이룬 기업, 팬데믹·공급망 위기도 극복 가능"

•   매경: "현대판 원유 반도체 수요 늘었다"...최고의 순간 왔다는 이 회사

•   매경: [MK TECH REVIEW] 웹 3.0 시대…게임의 법칙도 바뀐다

•   한경(P1): 3주택자, 15년 전 10억 주고 산 집 20억에 팔면…4억 아낀다

•   한경(P1): 대통령실 민관합동위원장에 권오현 내정

•   한경: 윤석열 대통령, 신라호텔 만찬서 5대 그룹 총수 만난다

•   한경: 테슬라도 주목한 '高망간'…K배터리 3사 개발 나서자 中 수출 통제

•   한경: [단독] 반도체 인력양성 예산 40% 깎았다

•   한경: '플랜B'로 LFP 개발 착수…中 배터리 견제

•   한경: "0.01% 확률도 책임지기 싫다"…세계 유일 '핸드드라이어 금지국' 日

•   한경: 국내 CEO 72% "올해 M&A 계획"

•   한경: 규제 없고 사업기간 절반…'미니 재건축' 뜬다

•   서경(P1): 尹정부 출범해도…전문가 73% "하반기 서울 집값 뛸것"

•   서경: 서울 집값 더 뛰는데 지방 '대세 하락?'…"키 맞추기 상승없다"

•   서경: 임대차3법 후폭풍…억눌렸던 수도권 전셋값 더 뛴다

•   서경: 尹 정부 부동산 과제 1순위는…"안전진단·재초환 등 규제 풀어 공급 확대를"

•   서경(P1): [단독] "韓, 망사용료법 우려" USTR, 바이든 방한 앞두고 공식 항의

•   서경: KDI "中봉쇄·美빅스텝에…경기 하방 위험 더 커졌다"

※   KDI: KDI 경제동향 2022. 5

•   서경: 文정부 5년간 비정규직 10만명 정규직 전환…한전 최다

•   서경: 금리상승기 LTV 완화, 1억 연봉자도 휘청

•   서경: “尹정부, 규제·노동 혁신으로 민간경제 역동성 살려야”

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 文정부 출범때 아파트값이 지금 전셋값보다 쌌다

•   조선: 기업, 연말까지 갚아야 할 회사채·어음 142조원

•   조선비즈: 백악관 “바이든 韓·日 순방 때 北이 가장 중요한 의제”

•   조선비즈: “세금내야 하는데 현금이 없네”…美 증시 하락에 보유 주식 손절하는 서학개미들

•   조선비즈: 삼성, 인도 스마트폰 시장 수량·판매액 점유율 1위

•   조선비즈: 전기차 전용 라인에 ‘다차종 생산’도 도입… 車 공장은 변신 중

•   조선비즈: 물가 상승 아직 안 끝났다…“中 봉쇄·추경까지 겹악재”

•   조선비즈: 韓·美 금리 역전 시기 외국인 매매 추이 살펴보니…2005년엔 금융주, 2018년엔 실적주 선방

•   조선비즈: 두산, 유동비율 100% 돌파… 재무 건전성 청신호

•   인베스트조선: "마땅한 투자처 없다"...다시 불 붙는 CB 발행

•   중앙(P1): [단독] 미국 물밑 제안 “한국산 무기 주면, 대신 우크라 전달”

•   중앙: 경유값 1931원인데 41원…도움 안되는 유가연동보조금

•   동아: 기재부 출신, 尹정부 중용 이어 지방선거 대거 출마

•   동아: 대기업이 이끄는 ‘릴레이 임금인상’… 불붙은 물가상승에 기름 붓나

•   한국: 13일 끝나는 신속항원검사... "연장해도 본인부담금 어쩌나"

•   국민: 尹정부 ‘脫원전’ 백지화에 들썩이는 SMR 시장

•   국민: “국가부채 50% 괜찮다? 증가 속도 너무 빠른 게 문제”

•   세계: 단체여행 20%·대리운전 13%↑…개인서비스 물가도 ‘날개’

•   경향: 현대차·기아 뛰어들 ‘인증 중고차’ 시장…이미 변화는 시작됐다

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 막오른 수소경제… 기업투자 열린다 [수소경제 활성화 마중물]

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]尹정부, IPEF 합류 확정…이달 말 출범 유력

•   아시아경제(P1): [재계 격변의 25년]10대 그룹 자산쏠림 확 낮아졌다

•   디지털타임스(P1): 대리ㆍ세차비도…"서비스물가 안오른게 없네"

•   디지털타임스(P1): 현대ㆍGS건설 하청만 받으면 `눈물의 적자`

•   이데일리(P1): 형법인가 공정거래법인가…공정위가 `재계 저승사자` 된 이유

•   이데일리: 신고·공시 누락해도 구속될 수 있는 한국…경영 발목 잡는 공정거래법

•   이데일리: 형벌 많은 공정거래법 대신 상법·민사 구제 활성화해야

•   이데일리: "韓 공정거래 규제, 형벌규정 지나쳐…글로벌 스탠더드 맞춰야"

•   이데일리(P1): "굵고 길게 교섭"…하투(夏鬪) 그림자 드리운 완성차

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 4만8491명 확진…어제보다 2만8373명 많아

•   연합: "미래 먹거리 선점"…반도체·배터리소재 공장 착공 '줄줄이'

•   연합: 한전 올해 적자 17조원 넘을수도…전기요금 인상 압박 가중

•   전자신문(P1): 테슬라 '배터리 소재' 공급망 구축

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Amit Tyagi): The Billionaire Raj?

•   Project Syndicate(James K. Galbraith): The Fed Waves Its Wand

•   Project Syndicate(Dani Rodrik): A Better Globalization Might Rise from Hyper-Globalization’s Ashes

•   Project Syndicate(Kevin Watkins): Can the International Community Still Do Big Things?

•   FT(Editorial Board): War can be a catalyst for courageous reform in Europe

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Ukraine and the shadow of the Nazis

•   FT(Edward Yardeni): Investors are too bearish about the US stock market

•   FT(Lex): Ukraine war: EU oil ban will hit home

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): China’s New Boss in Hong Kong

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Biden’s Middle East Opportunity

•   WSJ(Markos Kounalakis): For Russia, It’s All About the Benjamins

•   NYT(Peter Coy): ‘If Economists Are So Smart, Why Ain’t They Rich?’

•   NYT(Ruchir Sharma): Thanks but no Faangs — the folly of investing in acronyms

•   NYT(Peter Beinart): Biden Could Make the World Safer, but He’s Too Afraid of the Politics

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): Marcos Jr.’s Rise Is Grounds for Outrage. But Hold the Shock

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Bernstein): Biden, Trump and the 2024 Election: The Contest Is Already Looking Strange

•   Bloomberg(Clara Ferreira Marques): Putin’s Parades Can’t Hide a Missing Victory

•   Bloomberg(Pankaj Mishra): Putin’s Pariah Status Isn’t Slowing His Copycats in Europe

•   Bloomberg(Lisa Abramowicz): Fed's Kashkari Reveals an Uncomfortable Truth

•   CNN(Jeff Tucker): The housing market is about to finally cool off

•   Fox News(Jason D. Greenblatt): A nuclear Iran would unleash a nightmare in the Middle East