Global Economic Monitor 220505

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks rally after Fed hikes rates, crude jumps

•   Natural gas: European Energy Prices Jump as EU Proposes Banning Russian Oil

•   Metals: Copper steadies near 4-1/2 month lows but demand worries linger

•   Grains: Chicago wheat jumps on India export concerns

•   Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin jumps to $40,000 after Fed chair Powell rules out bigger rate hikes

•   한국: 코스피, 기관 매도에 0.11% 하락…FOMC 결과 관망

[Indicators]

•   US Benchmark rate: Fed Lifts Interest Rates by Half Point in Biggest Hike Since 2000

※   Central bank officials announce plans to start shrinking $9 trillion asset portfolio, another step to tighten policy and lower inflation

※   Fed: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

※   Bloomberg: Will Rate Hikes Cause a Recession? Here’s How to Prepare

•   US Mar. Balance of trade: U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record $109.8 Billion as Imports Surge

•   US Apr. Employment(ADP): U.S. Companies Added 247,000 Jobs in April, ADP Data Show

•   US Apr. Services PMI(ISM): U.S. Services Growth Eases on Softer Employment, New Orders

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications: Weekly mortgage demand rose for the first time since early March last week, but it won’t last

•   Eurozone Mar. Retail sales: Sharp fall in retail sales adds to eurozone economic gloom

※   Inflation and worries over Ukraine cancel boost to consumer spending delivered by lifting of pandemic restrictions

•   Germany Mar. Balance of trade: German Exports to Russia Sink to Two-Decade Low After Invasion

•   UK Mar. Mortgage approvals: Mortgage rate rises point to slowdown in UK housing market

•   India Benchmark rate: India’s central bank raises interest rates for first time since 2018

※   RBI: Monetary Policy Statement, 2022-23 Resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) May 2 and 4, 2022

•   Brazil Benchmark rate: Brazil Leaves End of Rate Hikes Up in the Air as Prices Surge

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine Retakes Villages Near Kharkiv, Easing Pressure on Battered City

※   Russian shelling slows in Ukraine’s second most-populous city, as Kyiv’s gains could blunt Russia’s eastern offensive

•   WSJ: As Coffins Come Home, Russians Confront Toll of Ukraine Invasion

•   WSJ: Russian Oil Ban, Ukraine War Present Risks to Global Economy, Janet Yellen Says

•   WSJ: Blinken China Speech to Affirm Beijing as Main U.S. Rival

※   The speech, postponed after secretary of state tested positive for Covid-19, is expected to emphasize the administration’s view of China

•   WSJ: The Postpandemic Normal Is Here and It Isn’t That Special

•   WSJ: American Consumers Are Shopping, Traveling and Working Out Like It’s 2019

•   WSJ: Europe Scrambles for Energy Before Cutting Itself Off From Russia

•   WSJ: Europe Picks Up the Energy Weapon

•   WSJ: Finland Holds War Drill Alongside U.S. Soldiers Ahead of NATO Application

•   WSJ: Shanghai Lockdown Reignites Supply-Chain Problems for U.S. Companies

•   WSJ: In Covid-19 Battle, Taiwan Finds Alternative to Chinese-Style Lockdowns

•   WSJ: Sri Lanka’s Finance Minister Says Country’s Available Reserves Near Zero

•   WSJ: The Fed Still Isn’t the Stock Market’s Friend

•   WSJ: What the Fed’s Interest-Rate Increase Means for Your Mortgage, Loans, Savings

•   WSJ: Why Surging Natural-Gas Prices Haven’t Sparked a Drilling Boom

•   WSJ: Facebook Parent Meta Hits the Brakes on Hiring as Growth Stalls

•   WSJ: VW Wants to Step Up Investment in U.S. Manufacturing

•   WSJ: Bill Gates Questions Elon Musk’s Goals for Twitter, Approach to Misinformation

•   WSJ: AMD Gets Bigger, Better and Cheaper

•   WSJ: The Solar Boom Will Create Millions of Tons of Junk Panels

•   NYT: Ukraine’s Battlefield Is Haunted by Putin’s Chemical Weapons Legacy

•   NYT: Japan Says It Needs Nuclear Power. Can Host Towns Ever Trust It Again?

•   WP: South Asia’s scorching heat wave comes as climate action stalls

•   FT: Hungary holds up EU plan to ban imports of Russian oil

•   FT: EU plans to evict largest Russian lender from Swift but spare energy bank

•   FT: Nato’s eastern front: will the military build-up make Europe safer?

•   FT: War in Ukraine prompts rethink of EU architecture

•   FT: Germany’s Olaf Scholz struggles to get his message across on Ukraine

•   FT: US moves towards imposing sanctions on Chinese tech group Hikvision

•   FT: Joe Biden calls Trumpism ‘most extreme’ political movement in recent US history

•   FT: China demand worries dull oil price impact of EU’s Russian embargo plan

•   FT: Imran Khan plots comeback as Pakistan’s new leaders battle economic woes

•   FT: Bond bull market ‘has come to an end’, Guggenheim’s Minerd says

•   FT: A Minsky moment for venture capital?

•   FT: Maersk issues warning over stagflation and Chinese factory closures

•   FT: Airbus pushes ahead with aggressive plans to increase production

•   Bloomberg: Powell’s Answer on Supply Chains Hints at Changing Jobs Analysis

•   Bloomberg: EU Plans to Block Russians From Buying European Real Estate

•   Bloomberg: China’s Labor Day Tourist Spending Plummets on Covid Curbs

•   Bloomberg: China’s PBOC Pledges ‘Normalized’ Supervision for Tech Platforms

•   Bloomberg: Six Signs That Will Tell Us When China Is Abandoning Covid Zero

•   Reuters: Beijing steps up COVID curbs as virus spreads in China

•   Reuters: EU says considering more military support to Moldova

•   Reuters: OPEC+ set to stick to existing deal despite demand concerns

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. real rates up on hawkish Fed but inflation risk looms

•   Reuters: Analysis: Consumer boom nearly over as Central Europe heads into "decade of peril"

•   Reuters: Analysis: Barely visible wage growth already a trigger for ECB

•   CNN: CNN Poll: Most Americans have a dismal view of the US economy

•   SCMP: Claim China’s Covid-19 ‘success’ has ‘shattered the American myth’ stirs online debate

•   SCMP: China’s yuan ‘far from a top global reserve’, as investors dump assets amid Ukraine war

•   SCMP: China coronavirus: mass-testing push could cost 1.7 trillion yuan a year if rolled out across country

•   SCMP: Explainer | What is the CPTPP and why is China eager to join?

•   Caixin: Shanghai Pledges to Restart Work at Major Construction Projects

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan considers financial support to boost U.S. LNG output

•   Nikkei Asia: Toshiba to kick off Chinese production of data center hard drives

•   Economic Times: CEA pegs growth at 7-8.5% given global uncertainties

•   매경(P1): "주5일 재택도 OK"…네이버 파격 실험, 직원들 행복한 고민

•   매경: "대면소통 필요하니 다시 출근하라"…'재택' 미련 남은 MZ직원들 부글부글

•   매경: 정부 "유연근무 전환 기업 적극 지원"

•   매경(P1): 빅스텝 시대, 지수투자 끝물…우량주 골라라

•   매경(P1): 기업 사외이사 넷 중 한명은 전직관료

•   매경: 사외이사 영입 1순위는 OOO…인재풀 작아 돌려막기도

•   매경: 무슨 일을 하길래…사외이사 평균연봉 5400만원

•   매경(P1): '외벽 붕괴' 광주 화정 아이파크…8개동 모두 허물고 다시 짓기로

•   매경: 우리끼리 채팅하는 카톡…SNS 방식으로 확 바뀐다

•   매경: 마음 편하게 회식 2차 가겠네…서울 심야택시 3000대 추가 투입

•   매경: 해외 자회사, 국내 배당땐 통큰 稅혜택…年5조 유턴 기대감

•   매경: 양도세 중과 유예, 하루 당긴 10일부터

•   매경: 발전공기업, 연료비 급등에 해외직구·채굴로 돌파구

•   매경: 투자할 곳 없네…단기 예금 1년새 65% 폭증

•   매경: "내가 금융회사 다녀서 잘 아는데"…이러다 재테크 폭망했다 [어쩌다 회사원]

•   매경: 혜자카드·실손보험…"우리 회사 상품은 안삽니다"

•   매경: [단독] 현대차 차세대 전기차배터리, LG·SK가 양분

•   매경: [단독] LG·SK 배터리, 국내 소부장 생태계 키웠다

•   매경: 성장 멈춘 카카오, 20분기만에 매출 뒷걸음

•   매경: 공매도 비중 10% 넘는 종목 4월 주가 살펴보니…10개중 6개 종목이 주가 떨어졌다

•   매경: "얘야, 부자되거라" 삼성전자 사주는 부모들

•   매경: 올해 서울 집값 서초 가장 많이 오르고…성북 가장 많이 내렸다

•   한경(P1): [단독] "왜 우리만…" 미국 AT&T 투자한 서학개미 '대혼란'

•   한경(P1): '대장동 방지' 졸속 입법…민관 도시개발 '날벼락'

•   한경(P1): 정몽규 HDC그룹 회장 "광주 붕괴아파트 모두 철거 후 재시공"

•   한경(P1): 지방 고용시장 '쿠팡 미라클'

•   한경: "급부상한 '웹 3.0'…10조弗 시장으로 큰다"

•   한경: 두 배 빠른 플래시 메모리…삼성전자 세계 최초 개발

•   한경: "새 정부 부동산 국정과제, 알맹이가 없다"

•   서경(P1): 공급망 이어 임금…'2차 인플레' 덮치다

•   서경: 월급 올랐는데 텅 빈 지갑…고임금發 인플레 공포

•   서경: 카카오 1년새 인건비 43% 뛰어…현대重 노조는 임금 갈등에 파업

•   서경(P1): [단독]롯데, 美 CMO공장 인수…바이오사업 본격 진출

•   서경: "우크라 전쟁이 끝 아냐"…푸틴發 '에너지·식량위기' 길어진다

•   서경: 팜비치 원룸 월세만 4000弗…"인플레, 기도밖에 해법 없어"

•   서경: 고인플레 시기 투자 전략은 "현금은 늘릴수록 손해…신흥국 '장투'에 기회"

•   서경: 노동이사제 이어 타임오프제…勞 대선청구서에 속타는 재계

•   서경: 개도국에 원전 세워 NDC 부담 줄인다

•   서경: 비상장에 몰리는 MZ…수익도 짭짤하네

•   서경: "아파트 비싸 못사요"…서울 빌라 매수 비중 64.8% '최고'

•   서경: 또 터졌다…아파트 덮친 인플레, 공사비 올려달라 '셧다운'

•   서경: 백신 폐기량 총 312만회분…두달만에 58만회분 늘어

•   조선(P1): 비대면진료 2년, 맛집 고르듯 선택… 서울 환자가 해남의사 진료받아

•   조선(P1): “엄마, 사장 아저씨가 키즈폰 선물 줬어요”...기업, 童心복지 확대

•   조선(P1): 민주, 한덕수 볼모로 한동훈 쳐내기… 새정부 ‘반쪽 내각’ 우려

•   조선: “원인 모를 열병 잇따라” 北전역 봉쇄령, 코로나 확진자 나온듯

•   조선: 시총 40兆 날아갔다, 국민株 네이버·카카오 추락

•   조선비즈: 2030 서울 아파트 매입 비중 다시 40%… 맘 급해진 이유 보니

•   조선비즈: 脫코로나인데 웃지 못하는 동네 상권… ‘빨대 효과’에 되레 침체

•   조선비즈: 삼성, 美 1분기 스마트폰 점유율 8년만에 최고치

•   동아(P1): [단독]특판 예적금, 年7% 이자 준다더니… 조건 까다로워 실제로 받은 건 2%

•   동아(P1): 1만원으론 냉면 한그릇도 못 먹어… ‘겁나는 외식’

•   동아: [단독]마스크업체 70% 사실상 폐업 “정부 믿고 생산 늘렸는데 모른 척”

•   동아: GTX로 수도권 30분 출퇴근 시대 열리나

•   문화: [단독]결국… 냉면 한그릇값도 평균 1만원 넘었다

•   한국(P1): 북한, '핵 선제타격' 선언 후 첫 미사일 발사… '고강도 도발' 신호탄?

•   국민: 데이터센터 수요 폭증… 건설사들 ‘사업 개발자’ 참여 러시

•   서울(P1): 3高 쓰나미… ‘퍼펙트 스톰’ 부른다

•   세계: 국제무역·통상 ‘ESG 태풍’ 예고에도… 팔짱만 낀 정부 [심층기획]

•   세계: 거리두기 해제 뒤 전국 이동량 6% 증가

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 매물, 강남 5% 늘때 강북 15% 늘었다

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 인구 10명중 아동 1.4명... 아이 보기 힘든 대한민국 [줄어드는 어린이]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 돌아온 회식… 2차는 노래방, 주점 카드결제 228% 늘었다

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 8월 새 거리두기 개편안 나온다… 인수위 "5월 중 실외마스크 전면 해제 검토"

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 인수위 '50일간의 활동' 6일 마침표

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "메타버스·NFT 저작권 논쟁은 그만" 정부 주도 협의체 출범

•   아시아경제(P1): 코로나 후 540조 급증 "채권 잔액 2556조 소화 한계…수급 악화"

•   아시아경제(P1): 김부겸 '경제인 사면' 건의에…文 "바둑돌 잘못 놓을 수도" 거절

•   아시아경제: 통신사-빅테크 망 사용료 갈등에 목청 높인 EU…韓 규제 속도 낼까

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 4만1258명 확진…어제보다 6474명 적어

•   연합: 美, 北 탄도미사일 발사 규탄 "위협 증가"…中과의 협조도 강조

•   연합: 한종희 삼성전자 부회장 "삼성만의 메타버스 만들겠다"

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Kenneth Rogoff): The Fed Does Not Deserve All the Inflation Blame

•   Project Syndicate(Mark Leonard): Europe’s Soft-Power Problem

•   Project Syndicate(Paulina Neuding): The End of Nordic Neutrality

•   Project Syndicate(Joschka Fischer): What the War in Ukraine Means for Europe

•   FT(Alan Beattie): The supply chain crisis kicks off a dangerous spiral of state subsidies

•   WSJ(Phil Gramm, Roger Wicker): Deter China by Turning Taiwan Into a Porcupine

•   NYT(Thomas L. Friedman): A Message to the Biden Team on Ukraine: Talk Less

•   NYT(Spencer Bokat-Lindell): Is More War the Only Path to Peace in Ukraine?

•   WP(Editorial Board): Europe is finally ready to cut off Russian oil. It’s about time.

•   WP(Max Boot): Russia learns the perils of aggression in an age of defensive dominance

•   WP(Josh Rogin): China won’t repeat Putin’s Ukraine mistakes in Taiwan

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Dreams of a Soft Landing, Fears of Hard Retirement

•   Bloomberg(Therese Raphael): Brexit Made Boris Johnson. Now He Has to Face Its Costs

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): How High Will the Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates?

•   Fox News(Michael R. Pompeo): China's COVID lockdowns expose the folly of communism