Global Economic Monitor 220519

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks pummeled by growth worries, U.S. dollar climbs

※   Stocks slide as inflation scare drives uncertainty

※   UK inflation hits 9%, in Canada rises to 6.8%

※   German 2-year yield hits 2011 high on ECB rate hike bets

•   US: Target, Walmart Earnings Selloff Puts Retailers’ Inflation Pains on Display

•   Metals: Copper prices fall on US Fed pledge for high rates

•   Grains: U.S. wheat futures slide on Russian crop exports, U.N. grain talks

•   한국: 코스피, 美 견조한 경제지표에도 소폭 상승에 그쳐…2,620대

•   한국: 큰손 돌아온 SK하이닉스·삼성전자, 다시 상승세

•   한국: 삼성전자는 6만원에 갇혀도…부품주는 Z플립4 기대에 '꿈틀'

•   한국: "환율 급등 끝난 거야?"...원/달러 나흘째 내려 1260원대

[Indicators]

•   US Apr. Housing starts: US Housing Starts, Building Permits Stall as Mortgage Rates Bite

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications: Weekly mortgage demand from homebuyers tumbles 12%, as higher interest rates take their toll

•   UK Mar. House prices: UK house price growth slows as cost of living climbs

•   UK Apr. CPI·PPI: Sunak warns of ‘tough’ few months as UK inflation hits 40-year high

※   Prices climb 9% and soaring gas and electricity bills deepen cost of living crisis

※   FT: Why Britain has the highest inflation in the G7

•   China Q1 Smartphone shipment: Economic Woes Drag Down Smartphone Shipments in First Quarter

•   China Apr. Home prices: China’s New Home Prices Fall for the First Time in More Than Six Years

•   Japan Q1 GDP: Japan’s Economy Shrank Slightly in First Quarter

•   Japan Apr. Foreign visitors: Japan visitors down 95% in April from 2019, small tours to open soon

•   Russia Q1 GDP: Russia’s Economy Slowed Down More Than Expected in First Quarter

•   South Africa Apr. CPI: Inflation Steady as Big Interest-Rate Hike Looms in South Africa

•   Chile Q1 GDP: After mixed Chile GDP data, concerns of recession grow

•   한국 1분기 지역경제동향: 지방 물가상승률 11년來 최고…10개 시·도서 4% 넘어

•   한국 1분기 은행 대손충당금: 불확실성 커지는데…은행 1분기 대손충당금 '뚝'

•   한국 3월 은행 대출 연체율: 3월 말 국내은행 대출 연체율 0.22%…전월 대비 0.03%p↓

•   한국 3월 주요 국가산업단지 산업동향: 전국 산업단지 ‘기지개’…3월 가동률 4.5%P·생산 13.4%증가

[News]

•   WSJ: High Inflation, Slowing Growth Raise Risk of Global Downturn

•   WSJ: Latest Covid-19 Wave Expands to More of U.S.

※   Rising cases prompt more calls for precautions but not mandates in hot spots like New York City

•   WSJ: Sick With Covid, Americans Feel the Pressure to Power Through at Work

•   WSJ: Fed’s Patrick Harker Supports Half-Point Rate Rises in June and July

•   WSJ: Fed Nominee Michael Barr Has Pressed to Reverse Trump-Era Banking Policies

•   WSJ: Treasury Likely to Prevent U.S. Investors From Receiving Russian Debt Payments

•   WSJ: Russia Weighs Fate of Ukrainian Defenders in Mariupol

•   WSJ: Russian Soldier Admits Shooting Unarmed Civilian in First War-Crime Trial in Ukraine

•   WSJ: How Russian Businesses Are Skirting Sanctions

•   WSJ: Senior Chinese Central Banker Is Probed for Corruption

•   WSJ: Recession Looms, but Markets Haven’t Got the Message

•   WSJ: This Could Be a Lost Decade for Stocks

•   WSJ: TerraUSD Crash Could Speed Up Crypto Regulation, Binance.US CEO Says

•   WSJ: How Homeowners Can Lock in the Steep Rise in Home Values

•   WSJ: Is Elon Musk Actually Going to Buy Twitter? Can He Just Walk Away?

•   WSJ: Google Moves Employees Out of Russia

•   NYT: Economic Headwinds Mount as Leaders Weigh Costs of Confronting Russia

•   NYT: Over 75 Percent of Long Covid Patients Were Not Hospitalized for Initial Illness, Study Finds

•   NYT: Omens of Decline for Russia’s Once World-Leading Energy Industry

•   NYT: China’s Internet Censors Try a New Trick: Revealing Users’ Locations

•   WP: Even from the CDC, America gets two very different pandemic messages

•   WP: Climate change has made India’s relentless heat 100 times more likely

•   WP: The Orbanization of America: How to capture a democracy

•   FT: EU accepts it will burn more coal in move away from Russian gas

※   Brussels outlines plan to bolster energy infrastructure and insists it will still hit carbon reduction targets

※   European Commission: REPowerEU: A plan to rapidly reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels and fast forward the green transition

•   FT: Erdoğan blocks Nato accession talks with Sweden and Finland

※   Turkey’s president requests extradition of 30 ‘terrorists’

•   FT: Turkey’s Erdoğan plays hardball over Nordics’ Nato bid

•   FT: Central banks seek interest rate sweet spot in inflation fight

•   FT: EU plans for funding energy transition to spark opposition

•   FT: Inflation and wage pressures will squeeze already stretched public services

•   FT: EU ready to turn measures targeting N Ireland protocol fears into draft law

•   FT: Truss warns Sunak against windfall tax on UK energy sector

•   FT: Rise in UK minimum wage helped narrow inequality but failed to lift productivity

•   FT: Sunak pledges targeted tax cuts for UK business in autumn Budget

•   FT: Trump’s star power yields uneven results in Republican primaries

•   FT: US rushes to catch up with China in supercomputer race

•   FT: China’s lockdowns hammer consumer spending

•   FT: China diverts anti-poverty funds to Covid testing as crisis deepens

•   FT: Crisis-hit Sri Lanka braces for debt default as dollars run out

•   FT: Australia’s ‘khaki’ election campaign centres on fears of China

•   FT: Big investors increase cash holdings to highest levels since 9/11 attack

•   FT: International investors sell Chinese debt at record pace

•   FT: Pimco: navigating the end of the bond bull market

•   FT: Microsoft relaxes cloud terms to avoid full EU antitrust probe

•   FT: Siemens Energy considers full takeover of Siemens Gamesa

•   FT: Tencent’s revenue growth hit by tech crackdown and Covid curbs

•   FT: Why don’t computers work?

•   Bloomberg: Climate Debt That Stalled Globally Takes Off With Push in Japan

•   Bloomberg: New York Fed Warns of Worrisome New Pressure on Global Supply Chain

•   Bloomberg: Biden Invokes Emergency Powers to Try to Ease Formula Shortage

•   Bloomberg: Yellen’s Grand Global Corporate Tax Plan Risks Congress Flop

•   Bloomberg: El-Erian Says US Can’t Avoid Stagflation Even as Fed Tightens

•   Bloomberg: ECB Needs to Move Quickly From Negative Rates, Rehn Says

•   Bloomberg: Boris Johnson Has Left Behind the People Who Handed Him a UK Majority

•   Bloomberg: UK Targets Green Trade to Help ‘De-Putinise’ Global Economy

•   Bloomberg: China Has Enough Policy Room for Economic Challenges, Li Says

•   Bloomberg: Worker Shortages Snarl Shipping Even as Shanghai Lockdown Eases

•   Bloomberg: Shanghai Opens for More Bankers at Offices as Lockdown Eases

•   Bloomberg: This Is How China Rounds Up Thousands of People for Quarantine

•   Bloomberg: China’s New Covid Flareups Raise Risk of More Disruptive Curbs

•   Bloomberg: India’s Monetary Panel Sees Need for More Interest Rate Hikes

•   Bloomberg: UN Says US is Blocking up to $120 Billion of Iran’s Funds Abroad

•   Bloomberg: Why Sweden’s Stance on Kurds Riles Turkey’s Erdogan

•   Bloomberg: Sri Lanka Can’t Find Cash to Pay Even One Ship for Petrol

•   Bloomberg: Marcos-Duterte Alliance Gets Tested After Big Election Win

•   Bloomberg: Eletrobras Privatization Wins Approval of Brazil’s Audit Court

•   Bloomberg: Surging Dollar Stirs Markets Buzz of a 1980s-Style Plaza Accord

•   Bloomberg: Shale Jobs Won't Top Pre-Pandemic Levels Until 2027, Rystad Says

•   Bloomberg: Sky-High US Gasoline Prices to Lure More Imports From Asia

•   Bloomberg: Farmers Are Buying Up Expensive Weedkiller Even As Costs Soar

•   Bloomberg: Panama Canal Vessel Queue Reflects Shipping Bottlenecks

•   Bloomberg: Baidu’s Chip Affiliate Eyes Fundraise at $2.5 Billion Valuation

•   Bloomberg: World Will Spend an Estimated $1 Trillion on Offshore Wind Power by 2031

•   Bloomberg: Asia’s Two Richest Men Reap Windfall From Surging Oil, Coal

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Automakers Are Least Prepared for Zero-Emissions Shift

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Commuting to Work by Bike Could Boost Your Productivity

•   Reuters: World in no better place to fight pandemics than before COVID - review

•   Reuters: JPMorgan cuts U.S. GDP estimates for 2022 and 2023

※   The firm's economic and policy research department cut its second half view to 2.4% from 3% and cut its first half 2023 target to 1.5% from 2.1% and for the second half of 2023 it cut its view to 1% from 1.4%.

•   Reuters: EU plans 9 bln euros joint borrowing for Ukraine, more for reconstruction

•   Reuters: Severe drought could pose problems for US power grid this summer -NERC

•   Reuters: U.S. extends application deadline for nuclear power rescue program

•   Reuters: ECB policymakers push for quick monetary policy normalisation

•   Reuters: Brazil's govt will maintain GDP outlook for 2022 and 2023 -sources

•   Reuters: Bolsonaro's request to investigate supreme court judge likely to be denied, says source

•   Reuters: Chile's congress approves minimum wage hike

•   Reuters: Myanmar resistance urges West to provide arms for fight against junta

•   Reuters: Self-driving startup Wayve taps Microsoft for 'supercomputer muscle'

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE China in talks with automakers on EV subsidy extension -sources

•   Reuters: Analysis: More pain in Sri Lanka before any resolution to crisis

•   Reuters: Analysis: For Riyadh, Hezbollah setback is rare good news from Lebanon

•   Reuters: Analysis: British Pound: The sick man of the currency world

•   AP: UN drops forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 3.1%

※   The United Nations on Wednesday significantly lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year from 4% to 3.1%

※   UN: World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2022

•   AP: EXPLAINER: What’s behind difficult Taiwan-China relations?

•   CNBC: As inflation slows and the ruble rallies, Russia is hoping to avoid a financial crisis

•   CNBC: It’s now cheaper to switch from coal to renewables instead of coal to gas, report shows

•   CNBC: EV battery costs could spike 22% by 2026 as raw material shortages drag on

•   CNBC: Why Tesla was kicked out of the S&P 500′s ESG index

•   CNBC: Apple may have to slide a lot further before the market sell-off stops, trader says

•   MarketWatch: Goldman Sachs CEO sees a ‘30% chance of recession’ within the next 12 to 24 months

•   Fox Business: White House admits stock market 'not something we keep an eye on every day'

•   SCMP: China’s zero-Covid policy questioned as expert says ‘stabilising the economy will protect lives’

•   SCMP: Joe Biden’s IPEF economic pivot seen as ‘cold war strategy’, bringing China ‘sharp challenges’

•   SCMP: China’s Yang Jiechi warns US security adviser Jake Sullivan about Washington’s Taiwan moves

•   SCMP: As China strikes positive tone on economy, experts play down short-term impact of policy support

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Shanghai Covid cases remain at zero outside quarantine zones for fourth day, putting city on path towards normalcy

•   SCMP: Explainer | What has China done to minimise impact of zero-Covid, and why are global-recession risks rising?

•   Global Times: Xi, Marcos discuss expanding ties, carrying forward friendship

•   Caixin: Chinese President Xi Jinping Pledges to Open Door Wider to World

•   Nikkei Asia: Sony to expand entertainment into metaverse and EVs

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan urges China to play 'responsible role' for peace

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan water leak disrupts supply to plants near Toyota hub

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan nuclear regulator OKs plan to release treated Fukushima water

•   Nikkei Asia: China's Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo trim smartphone orders by 20%

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Premier Li is back, and so is 'Likonomics'

•   Economic Times: Inflation set to avg to 9-yr high at 6.9% in FY23: India Ratings

•   Economic Times: RBI's criticism for "delayed" rate hike unfair, says D Subbarao

•   Economic Times: S&P cuts FY23 India growth forecast to 7.3% on rising inflation, Russia-Ukraine war

•   Economic Times: India remains attractive for FDI investors

•   매경(P1): '年 4% 물가' 덮친다…국책硏 첫 공식화

※   KDI: KDI 경제전망, 2022 상반기

•   매경: 추경 빼면 올 2.4%성장…中봉쇄 장기화땐 내년 1%대 추락 위기

•   매경: 성장률 하락땐 세수도 감소…위기대응 어려워져

•   매경(P1): 한국 오자마자 이재용 만나는 바이든…첫 방문지는 '삼성 평택 반도체공장'

•   매경: 尹, 바이든과 군사·경제동맹 이어 기술동맹 나선다

•   매경: "한국 IPEF 참여, 중국 배척 아니다"

•   매경(P1): "6월부터 사무실로 다 나와라"…실적 악화에 재택근무 접은 게임업계

•   매경: 밤 12시 땡하니 "생일 축하해" 카톡 오네…드디어 예약전송된다

•   매경: [단독] "고용위기 기업 살려라" 정부 핀셋지원

•   매경: 추경호 "납품단가 연동제, 하반기 시범 운영"

•   매경: 이해충돌 방지법 19일 시행…제보자에 최대 30억 보상금

•   매경: 대우조선, 러시아 선사와 계약해지…대금 미지급 사태 현실화

•   매경: 매그나칩 인수나선 LX, 칼라일과 손잡았다

•   매경: 구글이 웹3.0 조직 신설한 이유 [아이티라떼]

•   매경: [Science in Biz] 산업기술자를 개신교도라며 내쫓은 佛…산업 몰락 불렀다

•   한경(P1): 韓·美 "통화스와프 준하는 협력 추진"

•   한경(P1): 현대차·기아, 국내 전기차에 21조원 베팅

•   한경(P1): "그린 에너지 투자 슈퍼사이클 온다"

•   한경: "美 주택과 유럽 물류센터, 장기 투자 땐 고수익 예상"

•   한경: 국내 큰손들 "유망 테크·다가구주택 등 틈새시장에 기회"

•   한경: "물가 상승기엔 코어 인프라 투자를"

•   한경(P1): "역풍 이 정도일 줄은…" 뿔난 개미에 결국 백기 든 동원

•   한경: CEO 연봉까지 정한다…개미 입김에 셀트리온·카카오도 '백기'

•   한경: "소액주주 권익 보호한다지만…기업 M&A 크게 위축될 것"

•   한경: 자고 일어나면 2억씩 껑충…잘나가던 세종 아파트의 추락

•   서경(P1): 국회 발의 '디지털자산법'으론 제2 루나사태 무방비

•   서경: '스테이블' 용어조차 없고 법안도 '복붙' 수준…법제화 곳곳 구멍

•   서경: "빚투로 코인 샀는데 완전 쪽박…개인회생 하러갑니다"

•   서경: 국세청, '루나 사태' 권도형·테라폼랩스에 1000억 추징

•   서경(P1): [알립니다] 서울포럼 2022-대한민국 신성장전략:담대한 도전-우주에서 길을 찾다

•   서경: "한미 원자력산업 협력 단절 심각…고위급협의체 재가동 시급"

•   서경: 尹공약 뒷받침·초과세수 겹악재…정부 "내년 쓸 돈이 없다"

•   서경: "식용윳값 잡아라"…정부, 할당관세 추진

•   서경: 이창양 "기업규제 개혁"…최태원 "민관 협력 필수"

•   서경: "잠재적 리스크 언제든 현실화… 컨틴전시 플랜 빈틈없이 점검"

•   서경: 손경식 경총 회장 "국내 여건 맞춰 탄소중립 속도 조절해야"

•   조선: [단독] 文정부가 올린 법인세 25%→22% 인하 추진

•   조선비즈: 서울 아파트값 혼조 속 일부 非재건축 억 단위 ‘뚝’

•   조선비즈: 尹 정부, ‘녹색산업’에 원전 추가하려 이달 중 현장 점검

•   인베스트조선: 대한항공-아시아나 합병 좌초 위기?…美, 전략물자 수송 독점도 우려

•   인베스트조선: 재택근무 확대의 함정…'프리라이더'는 거른다

•   중앙: 퓰너 헤리티지 회장 "文, 평양옹호 패착…尹, 안보 베테랑 썼다"

•   중앙: 햄리 CSIS소장 "바이든, 尹정부에 편안함…확장억제 믿음줘야"

•   동아(P1): 정부 “北 ICBM발사 임박… 바이든 방한중 도발땐 플랜B 가동”

•   동아: 6G 시대 선도… ‘스페이스 데이터’로 영역 확대

•   문화(P1): [단독]韓 전경련-日 게이단렌, 3년 만에 만난다

•   한국: "LCD 이어 OLED 패널도 中에 내줄 수 있어"...확산되는 디스플레이 '홀대론'

•   한국: "회초리 치는데 숙제 안 할 수 있습니까"…통신업계, '5G 중간요금제' 속앓이

•   국민: 주도권 일본서 한국으로… 배터리 소재 ‘동박’ 시장의 반전

•   세계(P1): “빌딩·車·공장 등 통합 설계로 에너지 효율 극대화 추진해야” [2022 세계에너지포럼]

•   경향: 아직은 아냐…집 살 사람들, 바라만 본다

•   머니투데이: "한달간 딱 6대 수출"…세계1위 수소차 '넥쏘'의 굴욕, 왜?

•   머니투데이: [단독]도로·전철 SOC 예산 '4464억' 싹둑...지선 앞둔 여야 화들짝

•   머니투데이: 8월 전월세 '헬게이트' 열린다?…"대란 없다" 3가지 근거

•   헤럴드경제: 수소·전기차·폐기물·SMR까지…탄소에 ‘진심’인 최태원

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 코스피 순이익, 삼성전자 빼면 26% 급감했다 [상장사 1분기 실적]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 석달새 1000명 떠났다… 조선업계 인력난 심화

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 힘 못쓰는 LG전장, 인력이탈 골머리

•   파이낸셜뉴스: ‘코로나 격리’ 끝내는 SK·LG… 삼성은 ‘속도 조절’

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]삼성전자, 로봇사업팀 인력 연말까지 2배 더 늘린다

•   아시아경제: 로봇이 서빙하고 잔디깎고 배송하고…삼성·LG·현대차 로봇사업 확대중

•   아시아경제(P1): '원인, 스리아웃'…尹정부, 내년 부처별 규제비용 감축제 도입

•   아시아경제: "천연가스에서 수소를…넷제로 디딤돌 될 것"[넷제로가 미래다 2]

•   이데일리(P1): 원자잿값 급등 쇼크…"공사할수록 손해" 섀시社 70곳 셧다운

•   이데일리(P1): 팔 수 있는 건 다 판다…위기의 한전 고강도 구조조정

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 2만6773명 확진…어제보다 3858명 줄어

•   전자신문(P1): 배터리-ESS '원자재 가격연동제' 충돌

•   전자신문: “5년간 탈원전 따른 발전 손실 10조”…인수위 참여 박주헌 교수

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]尹정부, '제2 벤처붐' 배턴 터치…'시계제로' 글로벌 경제 암초

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트] 4월 국내 스타트업 1조원대 투자유치

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Zhang Jun): What Justifies China’s Zero-COVID Policy?

•   Project Syndicate(Michael Jacobs, Xhulia Likaj): Have We Reached the Limits to Growth?

•   Project Syndicate(Pascal Lamy): Preparing for Climate Overshoot

•   Project Syndicate(Michael R. Strain): Will US Inflation Lead to Recession?

•   FT(Editorial Board): Cities will need help to adapt to a post-commuter society

•   FT(Satyajit Das): China relationship looms over Australian assets

•   FT(Daniel Godfrey): Divest fossil fuels — the time for engagement is over

•   FT(Michael Stott): US summit struggles in Latin America are a boon to China

•   FT(Jason Butler): Economic distress lifts stigma of discussing money troubles

•   FT(Alan Beattie): India’s export shock exacerbates a global food crisis

•   FT(Vanessa Nakate): Debt suffocates African nations’ ability to respond to climate change

•   FT(Lex): China electric vehicles: fresh grants would provide a welcome recharge

•   WSJ(Daniel Henninger): The Next Pandemic: Mental Illness

•   WSJ(Joe Lieberman, Mark D. Wallace): Does Erdogan’s Turkey Belong in NATO?

•   NYT(Peter Coy, Alexandra Scaggs): The Economy Is Weird. Two Experts on Where It Goes From Here.

•   WP(Editorial Board): The world must not forget Mariupol’s defenders

•   WP(Marc A. Thiessen): To counter Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, look to Ronald Reagan

•   WP(Jonah Estess): Digital currencies are repeating the problems of 19th-century paper money

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Is Carbon Removal Finally Getting Serious?

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Dot-com Bust Has History Lesson for Investors on Buying the Dips

•   Bloomberg(Jared Dillian): Bitcoin: Some Cryptocurrency Questions Nobody Can Answer

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Bernstein): Midterms 2022: Republican Voters Aren’t Trump Zombies

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Where Wall Street Thinks the S&P 500 Will Finish This Year

•   Bloomberg(Andrea Felsted): Cost of Living Crisis: Brits Are Starting to Feel Everything Get More Expensive

•   Bloomberg(Gearoid Reidy): Workers in Japan Should Ask Their Bosses for a Raise