Global Economic Monitor 220524

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks rally as euro gains on likely rate hikes

※   Major U.S. and European indices gain more than 1%

※   German IFO business index shows unexpected resilience

※   ECB says it could see interest rate “lift-off” in July

※   Dollar weakens as euro gains on ECB rate talk

•   Metals: Falling inventories and weaker dollar lift copper

•   Grains: US wheat firms ahead of USDA conditions report

•   한국: 코스피, 기관 매수에 이틀째 상승…2,640선 회복

•   한국: 외국인도 눈치챈 '바이든 수혜주'…반도체 2차전지 쓸어담아

•   한국: "아이폰 전면 카메라도 공급"…호재에 '사자 주문' 몰린 이 회사

[Indicators]

•   US Apr. Business borrowing for equipment: U.S. business borrowing for equipment rises 7% in April- ELFA

•   Germany May Ifo business climate: German Business Confidence Grows Despite War, Supply Woes

•   한국 4월 거주자 외화예금: 환율 고점 1300원?…美 빅스텝 예고에도 달러 판다

•   한국 5월 1~20일 수출: 무역적자 벌써 100억달러…금융위기 때보다 빨라

•   한국 5월 소비자동향: 물가 더 오른다'…기대인플레 3.3%, 9년7개월래 최고

[News]

•   WSJ: Biden Says U.S. Would Intervene Militarily if China Invaded Taiwan

※   Comments during Tokyo visit spark uncertainty over whether U.S. is moving away from policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’

•   WSJ: Biden Undercuts U.S. ‘Strategic Ambiguity’ Over Defending Taiwan

•   WSJ: China and Taiwan Relations Explained: What to Know About the Tensions

•   WSJ: Biden Kicks Off Economic Group Linking U.S., Asia

※   Indo-Pacific Economic Framework doesn’t include plans to lower tariffs, disappointing some nations

※   White House: FACT SHEET: In Asia, President Biden and a Dozen Indo-Pacific Partners Launch the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity

•   WSJ: Biden Exploring Release of Diesel Fuel Reserves Amid High Prices

•   WSJ: Americans Reported Strong Personal Finances Late Last Year, Fed Finds

※   Fed: Federal Reserve Board issues Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2021 report

•   WSJ: At Davos Confab, CEOs Fret Over Economy, Start to Plan for a Downturn

•   WSJ: Iran Vows Revenge for Killing of Senior Revolutionary Guard Member in Tehran

•   WSJ: JPMorgan Says U.S. Consumers Are Doing Just Fine

•   WSJ: Companies Buying Back Stock Enjoy a Discount as Markets Tumble

•   WSJ: Didi Says It Will Proceed With Delisting From NYSE

•   WSJ: Why Shale Drillers Are Pumping Out Dividends Instead of More Oil and Gas

•   WSJ: Broadcom in Advanced Talks to Buy VMware

•   WSJ: Starbucks to Exit From Russia

•   WSJ: Smallpox Vaccine Enters Wider Production Amid Monkeypox Outbreak

•   WSJ: Monkeypox: What to Know About Symptoms, Treatments and Whether to Worry

•   WSJ: Three Doses of Pfizer’s Covid-19 Vaccine 80% Effective in Young Children, Company Says

•   WSJ: The Average Age of Vehicles on U.S. Roadways Hits a Record 12.2 Years

•   WSJ: Amazon Plans to Sublet Warehouse Space to Reduce Excess Capacity

•   WSJ: Airbnb to Quit China Business as Harsh Lockdowns, Competition Weigh on Demand

•   WSJ: Zoom Sales Growth Slows as Pandemic Boom Wanes

•   NYT: Debate Over Tariffs Reveals Biden’s Difficulties on China Trade

•   NYT: Powerful American Artillery Enters the Fight in Ukraine

•   NYT: Ukrainian Court Convicts Russian Soldier of War Crimes

•   NYT: Climate Change Fuels Heat Wave in India and Pakistan, Scientists Find

•   NYT: Google Maps Workers Say They Can’t Afford the Trip Back to the Office

•   WP: ‘Ashamed’ Russian diplomat resigns over Putin’s ‘aggressive war’

•   FT: IMF chief warns global economy faces ‘biggest test since second world war’

※   Kristalina Georgieva says Ukraine conflict is ‘devastating lives, dragging down growth and pushing up inflation’

•   FT: Eurozone to end negative interest rates within months, Lagarde indicates

※   ECB president’s remarks send euro and yields up

•   FT: Putin ally gives evidence against former Ukrainian president

•   FT: Russia threat deters bond investors from Baltics and Finland

•   FT: Why seizing and selling Russian assets is dogged by legal issues

•   FT: EU states braced for extra cash demands from Brussels

•   FT: How war in Ukraine convinced Germany to rebuild its army

•   FT: Erdoğan says he no longer recognises Greece’s leader

•   FT: Italy’s economic prospects sour as inflation bites

•   FT: Bailey rejects criticism of BoE’s handling of inflation

•   FT: Sunak orders plan for windfall tax on electricity generators

•   FT: Time trickles away for a success at the WTO

•   FT: Energy shock shows need to rethink green transition, Aramco chief says

•   FT: Ukraine war creates new tensions for ESG investors

•   FT: The future of crypto trading is futures

•   FT: Binance promoted terra as ‘safe’ investment before $40bn collapse

•   FT: Chip supplier says China will struggle to develop advanced technology

•   FT: Russia’s largest shipping group sells part of fleet to repay debts

•   FT: Siemens Energy warns on wind costs ahead of Gamesa acquisition

•   FT: North Sea’s biggest oil and gas producer warns against UK windfall tax

•   FT: Energy shock shows need to rethink green transition, Aramco chief says

•   Bloomberg: Global Trade Rebound Stalls as War, Covid Hit Supply Chains

※   WTO: Goods barometer remains flat as Ukraine conflict, COVID-19 weigh on trade

•   Bloomberg: Fed Rate-Hike Pause in September May ‘Make Sense,’ Bostic Says

•   Bloomberg: Stiglitz Says Fed Rate Hikes Killing Economy Won’t Fix Inflation

•   Bloomberg: NABE Survey Shows Downgrade of US Growth and Faster Inflation

※   NABE: May 2022 NABE Outlook

•   Bloomberg: EU Stalemate Deepens on Russian Oil Ban as Hungary Digs In

•   Bloomberg: Italy Wants EU to Let Farmers Become Energy Exporters

•   Bloomberg: China Plans Tax Relief of Over $21 Billion to Lift Economy

•   Bloomberg: Is China ‘Uninvestable’ and What Does That Even Mean?

•   Bloomberg: Beijing Sees Most Cases of Outbreak, Fueling Lockdown Angst

•   Bloomberg: Shanghai’s Neighborhood Covid Enforcers Keep Lockdowns Going Even as Cases Drop

•   Bloomberg: China Coal Expansions Threaten Higher Methane Levels Worldwide

•   Bloomberg: China’s $16 Trillion Cash Hoard Shows Deepening Household Gloom

•   Bloomberg: Asia Manufacturers Say the Pandemic-Driven Trade Boom Is Fading

•   Bloomberg: Hidden Economic Risks Lurk for New Australian Leader Albanese

•   Bloomberg: Erdogan Invites Saudi Crown Prince as Turkey Seeks Investment

•   Bloomberg: Marcos Wants ‘Trade, Not Aid’ From US, Open to Economic Pact

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s Seaborne Crude Oil Exports Keep Coming

•   Bloomberg: China’s Covid Zero Policy Is an Anchor on Commodities Prices

•   Bloomberg: Natural Gas Market Is Hurtling Toward Historic Winter Shortages

•   Bloomberg: Farmers Still Seen Making Money Despite Soaring Fuel, Fertilizer

•   Bloomberg: Supply-Chain Managers Are Quitting in Unprecedented Numbers

•   Bloomberg: Intel’s Gelsinger Has Mixed Feelings on Broadcom, VMware Deal

•   Bloomberg: Heat Wave in India Poses Risks for Nation’s Credit, Moody’s Says

•   Bloomberg: China Triples Solar Investments as Clean Energy Push Accelerates

•   Reuters: Ukraine urges more world pressure, says it repels Russian attack on eastern city

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Four EU countries call for use of Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine

•   Reuters: WHO expects more cases of monkeypox to emerge globally

•   Reuters: Top anti-inflation official in Argentina resigns as prices surge

•   Reuters: IEA warns against energy crisis deepening fossil fuel reliance

•   Reuters: Russia wants to set up joint oil and gas refineries with BRICS countries, minister says

•   Reuters: Analysis: Beaten-down U.S. retail stocks may still be too pricy for investors

•   Reuters: Analysis: Biden's Taiwan remarks show conviction to defend island but carry risks

•   Reuters: Analysis: South Korea's Yoon uses Biden summit as springboard for global agenda as China looms

•   AP: EXPLAINER: What’s in Biden’s proposed new Asia trade pact?

•   CNBC: ‘The next era of humanity’s technological development’: U.S. and its Asian allies get serious about semiconductors

•   CNBC: IMF head says stablecoins not backed by assets are a ‘pyramid,’ hinting at UST debacle that crashed markets

•   CNBC: Russia dominates nuclear power supply chains — and the West needs to prepare now to be independent in the future

•   CNBC: Google, Meta and Amazon will benefit from the Ukraine war, ad guru Martin Sorrell says

•   Fox Business: Former Fed Chair Bernanke says inflation today isn't 'anywhere near' 1970s price spike

•   SCMP: Joe Biden’s comments on US defending Taiwan could cause missteps, analysts say

•   SCMP: Quad plan to tackle illegal fishing could become latest source of US-China tensions

•   SCMP: China’s economy needs a jolt from special treasury bonds like Beijing used in 2020, economists say

•   SCMP: China goes on Asia-Pacific trade offensive in wake of US’ IPEF push

•   Caixin: Exclusive: China’s Climate Envoy Meets With IEA Chief in Davos

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan Inc. plays catch-up on economic security after Ukraine war

•   Nikkei Asia: Flight of the Rajapaksas: Sri Lankan dynasty faces reckoning

•   Economic Times: Economic growth may have slowed to 3.5 pc in Q4 FY22: Report

•   Economic Times: Economists expect inflation to come down by 20-40 bps

•   매경(P1): 지정학적 위험 줄여라…다보스 달군 공급망 이슈

•   매경: 기상이변 최대 피해는 아시아…기후대응 중심 역할 할것

•   매경: 中 봉쇄, 세계시장 파장에 주목해야…팬데믹 조치가 장기적 손실 부를수도

•   매경(P1): 尹 "韓 반도체·배터리 강점살려 국제연대"

•   매경: [단독] 대통령 비서관 3人 내달 워싱턴행 추진…한미 우주개발 손잡는다

•   매경: 민주주의 정상회의 유치 잰걸음…정상회담 외교·국방 후속조치

•   매경: "안보·자원 美의 더 진전된 입장 끌어내야…중국 보복은 과도한 우려"

•   매경: 삼성·현대차가 韓 최고 전략자산…한미 공급망 동맹 중심축됐다

•   매경: 한미산업협력대화 장관급으로 격상…美진출 韓기업 차별없는 혜택 약속

•   매경: 韓수출 40%는 IPEF 경제권…미국 주도 中포위전략 동참

•   매경: 난감한 韓 반도체·배터리업계 "한쪽만 편들기 힘들어"

•   매경(P1): 청약통장 아끼고 있었는데…원자재값 올라 1만가구 분양 미뤄

•   매경: "재건축 해봤자 손해만"...방배5 이문3 분양 내년으로 미뤄

•   매경: 공급 차질에…원희룡 "1기 신도시 외 다른 노후지역도 규제 개선"

•   매경: '부울경 메가시티' 초광역개발 속도낸다

•   매경: 화물연대 "내달 7일 총파업"…안전운임제·운송료 인상 요구

•   매경: 드론 위상 확 높아졌네…"이젠 건설 현장서 필수입니다"

•   매경: [실리콘밸리 리포트] 발 디딜 틈 없는 도심길, 탈출구는 '하늘'이다

•   매경: [실리콘밸리 리포트] 일도 잘되고, 일상도 잘 풀리네…하이브리드 근무 '좋아요'

•   한경(P1): 대리운전도 '中企 적합업종'…대기업 신규 진출 금지

•   한경(P1): "21세기 인류 도전의 '심장'…우주경제 시대 활짝 열려"

•   한경: "택시 안 잡히는데 한잔 더?"…밤시간 '카드 결제' 폭발

•   한경: "판교 16%나 증가했다"…재택근무 줄어들자 늘어난 '이것'

•   한경: "재택근무 받고 연봉 1억 더"…요즘 특급 대우 받는 직업

•   한경: 국민연금 수급자 2년새 100만명 폭증…이대로 가면 ‘재정 펑크’

•   한경: 정황근 "외식가격 공표제 폐지하겠다"

•   한경: 로봇·UAM·배터리…증설 나선 업종이 뛴다

•   한경: 구글·메타까지 가세…스마트워치 경쟁 격화

•   한경: 첨단기술로 폐기물 처리…대기업·VC, 먼저 찾아가 손잡는다

•   한경: AI·IoT·5G·메타버스…미래세상 바꿀 60개의 신기술을 만나다

•   서경(P1): "원전 강국 韓, 우주산업 잠재력 충분"

•   서경(P1): 원희룡 "GTX D~F노선 尹정부 임기내 착공 무리…예타 통과 목표"

•   서경(P1): [단독]늙어가는 기업연구소…2030 비중 절반으로 추락

•   서경: "RCEP 가입 한국, 美 주도 IPEF도 당연…中 반발 땐 대응도 단호하게"

•   서경: 실업자 수 3배 달하는 일자리 약속…지르고 보는 '장밋빛' 일색

•   서경: LG엔솔, LFP 양산 검토…SK온은 각형 개발 속도

•   서경: 로봇 시장 뛰어든 현대위아…협동로봇·자율주행 물류로봇 최초 공개

•   서경: 배터리-ESS기업 원가연동제 갈등…조선-철강사는 후판값 진통

•   서경: 韓, 중간재 수입 中의존도 28.3%로 주요국 중 ‘최고’

•   조선(P1): LNG선 100척 계약이 악몽 될 줄이야…

•   조선: 납품단가 못 올리는 中企는 더 서러워

•   조선: “삼성, 세계최대 美고객 확보… TSMC 따라잡을 기회”

•   조선: 인구 1000명 당 주택수 412채… OECD 34개 회원국 중 27위

•   조선: “자재값·인건비 비싸 장사해도 남는 게 없다”… 61%가 대출로 연명

•   조선비즈: “신사업 교두보”… 스마트시티에 꽂힌 건설사들

•   조선비즈: 文정부 “4월 가입 신청” 무리수에 요원해진 CPTPP…尹정부, 농민 달래기 진땀

•   중앙(P1): “북한 눈치 굴종외교…지난 5년 실패 증명”

•   중앙: 바이든, 삼성·현대차 투자 유치하며 ‘노조 협력’ 꺼낸 이유

•   동아: [단독]삼성 “시스템반도체, 2025년 애플 넘어설 것”… 드림팀 7월 출범

•   문화(P1): 韓기업, 미국투자 늘린 건 中리스크 탓

•   한국: 주문은 줄어드는데 여전히 높은 배달비...리오프닝에 배달업계 '울상'

•   서울: [단독] 대중관계 의식한 정부, IPEF ‘노동·환경’ 中 직접 겨냥은 막았다

•   한겨레: 미래차 쏙 빠진 현대차 임금협상…‘외부자들’ 목소리 직접 들어봤다

•   경향(P1): [알림] 팬데믹·전쟁·물가 급등…‘대전환 시대’ 미래를 묻다

•   경향: 다시 불붙은 ‘공기업 민영화’…‘MB노믹스’ 되살리나

•   머니투데이(P1): 세계 '가스올림픽' 내일 대구서 개막···SK·현대차·두산 등 韓 수소기업 출격

•   머니투데이: 지난해 SK그룹이 창출한 사회적가치는 18.4조…이렇게 계산했다

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 공정위 기업조사 단계서도 ‘영장제 도입’ 검토

•   헤럴드경제: 탭스콧 “尹정부 의지 있다면 韓, 블록체인 실리콘밸리 될 것”

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 韓 조여오는 'S 공포'... "성장률 2% 사수하라" [경제전문가 좌담회]

•   아시아경제(P1): 500대 상장사 '코로나 극복'…상위 20사 매출액·영업이익 절반 '주도'

•   디지털타임스(P1): [기획] `바이든 효과` 反기업 정서 녹이다

•   디지털타임스(P1): LTV 등 대출규제 풀면 서울 아파트값 자극한다

•   디지털타임스(P1): 조달금리 3%P 상승하면 기업 절반 `한계기업`전락

•   디지털타임스: [일러스트 이코노미] 이재용, 통역없이 해외출장… 정의선, CES서 영어 PT로 갈채

•   디지털타임스: `탈탄소`로 철강 가격 급등… 美 `무역확장법 232조`가 발목

•   이데일리(P1): "민간 주도 경제안보 지원 필요…대미·대중 디테일 전략 세워야"

•   이데일리(P1): 제2 루나사태 막겠다며 꺼내든 특금법 시행령…실효성 ‘갸웃’

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국 2만5432명 확진…하루 만에 다시 2만명대

•   연합: "삼성SDI, 스텔란티스와 美 인디애나에 배터리 합작공장"

•   연합: 북, 발열환자 300만명 육박…신규 13만여명·사흘째 10만명대

•   연합: 中 봉쇄 장기화에 직격탄…4월 LCD 패널 출하량 15% 급감

•   연합: 산업부, 한국전력 역대급 적자에 전력 구매가격 상한제 도입

•   더구루: [단독] SK, '2530억 규모' 美 증시 스팩 상장…'ESG 기업 인수' 초점

•   전자신문(P1): 물속에서도 협동 작업 가능한 AI 협동로봇

•   전자신문(P1): 삼성, 글로벌 IoT기업 10곳과 스마트홈 표준 검증

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]K-게임, AI 개발·적용·활용…이종산업 융합 '테스트베드'

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]세계최초 강화학습 기반 AI부터 비접속 모드까지.. 게임 속 AI 활약상

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Joschka Fischer): How the EU Must Change

•   Project Syndicate(Werner Hoyer): Climate Consensus in the Middle East

•   Project Syndicate(Anne O. Krueger): Will the Ukraine War Revive the WTO?

•   Project Syndicate(Yanis Varoufakis): The Peace Process Ukraine’s Supporters Should Support

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Lies weaken Russia in its trial of strength with the west

•   FT(Sonal Desai): Overdue reality check for Fed and markets has barely begun

•   FT(Ruchir Sharma): The threat shadow banks pose to the global economy

•   FT(Ethan Wu): What a bear market means

•   FT(Christof Ruhl): Europe must put more pressure on Russian oil exports

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Managing a World Order in Crisis

•   WSJ(Gerard Baker): Rescue From Recession Won’t Be So Easy This Time

•   WSJ(Phil Gramm, Mike Solon): The ‘Stakeholder Capitalism’ War on the Enlightenment

•   NYT(Peter Coy): High Gas Prices Are a Problem. But Let’s Not Moralize About It.

•   NYT(Farida Rustamova): Putin Rules Russia Like an Asylum

•   WP(Editorial Board): On Taiwan, Biden gets less ambiguous and more strategic

•   WP(Max Boot): Don’t worry about Putin’s feelings. Russia must pay for its invasion.

•   WP(Henry Olsen): Biden is right to say the U.S. should defend Taiwan

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Britain and Europe Should Work Together on Northern Ireland

•   Bloomberg(Clive Crook): Democrats Need Some Small Wins Now to Have a Chance in November

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Stocks Are Prey to Bear Market's Arbitrary 20% Threshold

•   Bloomberg(Chris Bryant): Shipping's $500 Billion Profit Can Take on Amazon

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): Broadcom’s Pursuit of VMware Takes Page From Michael Dell

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Electricity Prices Are Going to Be Overwhelming for Late 2022 and All of 2023

•   Fox News(Chuck DeVore): What Biden's Taiwan comments mean for China and the US