Global Economic Monitor 220504

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Stocks rise, U.S. yields slip as markets await Fed rate hike

•   Hong Kong: China’s Xiaomi shares dip after Indian authorities seize almost $730mn

•   Natural gas: Natural Gas Hits 13-Year High in U.S. on Growing Supply Jitters

•   Metals: Industrial metals sag as global manufacturing slows

•   Grains: Corn eases despite slow U.S plantings; demand concerns weigh

•   한국: 코스피, 기관 매도·FOMC 경계에 0.26%↓…2,680대 '턱걸이'

•   한국: 힘 받은 원전, 힘 빠진 건설…희비 엇갈리는 정책 수혜株

[Indicators]

•   US Mar. Factory orders: Rise in U.S. factory orders beats expectations in March

•   US Mar. Job openings: U.S. Job Openings, Quits Reach March Records in Tight Labor Market

•   Eurozone Mar. Employment: Eurozone jobless rate hits new low as unions intensify push for higher pay

•   Australia Benchmark rate: Australia Raises Interest Rates for First Time in More Than a Decade

•   한국 1분기 건축 인허가: 건축 투자 활기 띠나…1분기 인허가 면적 14% 늘었다

•   한국 4월 CPI: 4월 소비자물가 4.8% 상승…금융위기 이후 13년 반 만에 최고

•   한국 4월 외환보유액: 외환보유액 4천493억달러…미 달러 강세에 85억달러 감소

•   한국 4월 기업대출 잔액: 4차 만기연장에 또 늘어난 자영업 대출

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Zelensky Seeks Corporate Action to Deter Russia

•   WSJ: Ukrainian Civilians Describe Desperate Efforts to Flee Bombed-Out Mariupol

•   WSJ: Biden Visits Lockheed Plant as U.S. Boosts Javelin Production for Ukraine

•   WSJ: Russia Ramps Up Accusations of Neo-Nazism in Ukraine

•   WSJ: Biden Officials Divided Over Easing China Tariffs to Slow Inflation

※   Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen favors move, while Trade Representative Katherine Tai is concerned about ceding leverage

•   WSJ: Fed’s Message on Interest-Rate Path, Destination Will Be Scrutinized

•   WSJ: Supreme Court Is Investigating Leak of Draft Opinion Overruling Roe v. Wade

•   WSJ: Immigrants to Get Extension for Expiring or Expired U.S. Work Permits

•   WSJ: CIA Chief Met Saudi Crown Prince Last Month in Push to Mend Ties

•   WSJ: Fearful of Getting Cut Off, China Pushes for Self-Reliance

•   WSJ: NFT Sales Are Flatlining

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Said to Plan Taking Twitter Public Again Later

•   WSJ: Global Chip Shortage’s Latest Worry: Too Few Chips for Chip-Making

•   WSJ: Tariff Case Darkens Prospects for U.S. Solar

•   WSJ: Smart Office Buildings Can Help Sniff Out Viruses but Are Vulnerable to Hacks

•   WSJ: Zelensky, Yellen Among Speakers Set to Discuss Ukraine War at WSJ CEO Council

•   NYT: Russia’s War Has Been Brutal, but Putin Has Shown Some Restraint. Why?

•   NYT: The Era of Cheap and Plenty May Be Ending

•   NYT: Russia Could Sell More Energy to Asia, but Has to Slash Prices

•   NYT: Get Ready for Another Energy Price Spike: High Electric Bills

•   NYT: Inflation bonds are earning eye-popping rates: 9.62 percent.

•   WP: Mortgage rates are rising, but the hot housing market is slow to cool

•   WP: Now is a good time to buy this inflation savings bond

•   FT: EU inches towards end-of-year oil embargo on Russia

•   FT: Can the west choke Putin's petrodollar pipeline?

•   FT: Draghi urges EU to deepen economic integration in response to war

•   FT: China’s independent refiners start buying Russian oil at steep discounts

•   FT: Austria says EU must consider radical treaty change over Ukraine

•   FT: UK to provide £300mn of further military aid to Ukraine

•   FT: Inflationary pressures take toll on British manufacturers

•   FT: Fed reaches for its ‘hatchet’ to attack galloping inflation

•   FT: Fusion start-up Tokamak Energy calls for investment into nascent sector

•   FT: Shipping heavyweight Japan tables carbon tax proposal for the industry

•   FT: BP’s bumper earnings stoke new calls for windfall tax

•   FT: BMW and Audi suspend shipments by train to China

•   Bloomberg: Russia Seeks to Annex Occupied Ukraine as Invasion Goals Shift

※   Kremlin plans referenda to absorb Donbas into its territory

•   Bloomberg: Ukrainian Fighters Say Russian Forces Storming Mariupol Plant

•   Bloomberg: Russia Dodges Default for Now as Investors Get Dollar Funds

※   Government is dipping into dollars held locally to move funds

•   Bloomberg: Former Fed Vice Chair Quarles Says U.S. Is Likely to Suffer Recession

•   Bloomberg: German Opposition Leader Meets Zelenskiy as Scholz Refuses Visit

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Schnabel Says Rate Hike to Tame Inflation May Come in July

•   Bloomberg: Bank of England Poised to Hike Interest Rates to 13-Year High

•   Bloomberg: French Nuclear Power Output Dips Near Two-Year Low on EDF Woes

•   Bloomberg: OPEC Fails to Increase Output Amid Capacity Troubles

•   Bloomberg: Beijing Goes to Extreme Lengths to Avoid Shanghai Covid Woes

•   Bloomberg: Fitch Trims China’s 2022 Growth Forecast on Virus Lockdowns

•   Bloomberg: India’s Energy Crisis Has Power Giant Rushing Back to Coal

•   Bloomberg: Heat Wave Sparks Blackouts, Questions on India's Coal Usage

•   Bloomberg: Brazil’s Inflation Is So Bad Even Central Bank Workers Protest

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Quenches Dollar Thirst But Traders Want More Rate Hikes

•   Bloomberg: JPMorgan Says Fearful Investors Should Buy Credit, Sell Stocks

•   Bloomberg: Real Money and Fast Money Most at Odds on Treasuries Since 2020

•   Bloomberg: Emerging Market Debt Sales Plunge Amid Ukraine War, Rising Rates

•   Bloomberg: U.S. LNG Deals Surge With 30% of Planned Export Capacity Sold

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Ships Record Crude Oil to Europe as Buyers Shun Russia

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Freight Industry Downshifts From Hectic Pace for Shipping

•   Bloomberg: Climate Transition Spurs Biggest-Ever Corporate Green Bond Deal

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: China Cracked Down on Big Tech Companies. Now It Needs Them

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: The Hot Housing Market Makes the Fed’s Inflation-Fighting Job Even Tougher

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Musk and Google Add to $2 Billion Boost for Carbon Removal

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: China Covid Lockdown Reveals Alibaba and Meituan Need

•   Reuters: Main negotiators reach 'outcome' on COVID vaccine IP waiver, WTO says

•   Reuters: France's Macron to speak with Russia's Putin on Tuesday

•   Reuters: U.S. wants U.N. Security Council vote on N.Korea sanctions in May

•   Reuters: How Marcos could control hunt for his family's wealth as Philippines president

•   Reuters: Global problems may exacerbate shortages in North Korea's isolated economy

•   Reuters: India's Modi calls for ceasefire in Ukraine

•   Reuters: EU body sets out draft sustainability disclosure standards

•   Reuters: Snarled-up ports point to worsening global supply chain woes - report

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE Shanghai authorities stepped up to help Tesla reopen factory

•   Reuters: FACTBOX-Scramble to tap Latin America's lithium riches accelerates

•   AP: EXPLAINER: What’s the latest in Russia’s dance with default?

•   CNBC: The Fed is expected to raise rates by a half point. Investors wonder if it will get more aggressive

•   CNBC: EU considers exemptions to push through Russian oil embargo

•   CNBC: AMD sales jump 71%, shrugging off concerns about PC slowdown

•   CNBC: Own the ‘MANG’ stock portfolio instead of ‘FAANG’ in these conditions, Jefferies says

•   CNBC: The Great Resignation is still red hot — but may not last

•   MarketWatch: Omicron caused spike in deaths in vaccinated people, analysis finds, though unvaccinated remain most at risk

•   SCMP: China wary of Russia-type sanctions, but Beijing’s ‘financial nuclear bombs’ are a powerful deterrent

•   SCMP: Chinese economists censored, removed from social media after critical takes on zero-Covid policy

•   Caixin: Chinese EV-Makers’ Deliveries Plunge as Lockdowns Hit Dealers, Plants

•   Nikkei Asia: Walking a tightrope: Ukraine war puts Japan's energy security on thin ice

•   매경(P1): 新용산시대…尹 "도시 경쟁력이 국가 경쟁력"

•   매경(P1): 재건축 규제 확 푼다…'1기 신도시 특별법' 제정도 명시

•   매경: "규제 철폐"…尹노믹스, 민간이 끌고 정부가 민다

•   매경: 원전수출추진단 가동…공수처 지위남용 방지

•   매경: "우리엄마 좋겠네"…노인연금 월30만원서 40만원으로 인상

•   매경: 北비핵화 CVID 못박고, 한미일 3자협력 강화

•   매경: 한전, 해외 원전사업 재시동…영국서 발전소 실무 논의

•   매경: 조직 신설 부담에…배드뱅크 무산되나

•   매경: 세계반도체 웨이퍼, 1분기 역대 최대 출하

•   매경: 통신3사, 5G 주파수 박탈 위기 겨우 모면

•   매경: 회사 주식 받고 좋아했는데...주가하락 속타는 네이버 직원들

•   한경(P1): 이재용 '북한산 산행' 협상 통했다…삼성전자 1조 '잭팟'

•   한경(P1): "앞으로 몇 달간 엄청나게 힘든 시기 닥친다"…월가의 경고

•   한경: 건설 자재값 다 오르는데…하반기 분양가 더 오르나

•   한경: IoT를 넘어 BoT로…소형 배터리의 진화, 초연결 시대를 열다

•   서경(P1): 英, 韓과 차세대 원전 건립 협상

•   서경: "몇년째 수주가뭄, 더이상 못버텨…'신한울 3·4호기'에 생명줄 달렸다"

•   서경: "尹코드 맞춰라"…분주해진 원전공기업

•   서경: 한덕수 "韓 CPTPP 빠지면…日이 제일 득 볼 것"

•   서경: "당분간 물가 오름세 지속…원자재 추가 관세인하 검토"

•   서경: [단독] '中 눈독' 웅진에너지, 한화가 품나

•   서경: 새 정부 ‘에너지믹스’ 전환에 해상풍력발전 신산업 창출 기대감 커진다

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 낮엔 배달, 밤엔 자영업… ‘눈물의 투잡’ 50만명 넘었다

•   조선: [단독] 전기위원회, 독립기관으로... 위원장도 장관급 격상

•   조선비즈: 2008년 금융위기 후 최대 ’퍼펙트 스톰’ 몰려온다…尹정부, 위기대응 모드로 출범

•   조선비즈: 삼성전자 반도체 1위가 불안하다… “M&A로 시스템반도체 키워야”

•   조선비즈: 한덕수, ‘탈원전 폐기’ 강조 “원전 비중 늘리거나, 적어도 현 수준”

•   조선비즈: 한은 금통위원 전원 “추가 금리인상 필요…성장보다 물가 중요”

※   한국은행: 금융통화위원회 의사록(2021년도 제7차)(2022.4.14)

•   조선비즈: 삼겹살 2만원대·달걀 7000원대… “장보기 무서워요”

•   조선비즈: 빚내서 2년 버텼더니 임대료 인상에 울상… 위기의 자영업자들

•   조선비즈: “대충 말해도 알아듣는다”… 네이버, AI 맞춤검색 대폭 확대

•   조선비즈: ‘스마트워치 대전’ 구글·메타, 애플-삼성 2강 구도 도전장

•   조선비즈: ‘물류도 숙박앱처럼’ 카카오, AI 물류 플랫폼 출범

•   조선비즈: 대한상의 “경영성과급의 평균임금성, 제2 통상임금 사태 가능성”

•   조선비즈: 5G·6G, 반도체 언급은 없었다... 이종호 장관 후보자 “과학기술 시스템 재설계”

•   조선비즈: 펀드매니저가 건설현장 도는 까닭은… “우리도 중대재해법 대상일지 모른대요”

•   인베스트조선: 면피 급급한 IPO 시장, 책임지겠다는 주체가 없다

•   중앙: 사원이 임원 법카 들여다본다…청년 스타트업 그들이 일하는 법 [90년대생 창업자가 온다]

•   문화: 변이중 전파 속도 가장 빠른 ‘오미크론 하위 ’국내 첫 발견

•   문화: 경제자유구역‘난맥’…백지화 속출에도 추가지정

•   문화: [단독]4월 서울아파트 거래 823건뿐… 상승 기대감에 최악 거래절벽

•   한국: ‘韓 쿼드 합류 선 긋고, 北 의제 확인하고...’ 한미정상회담 윤곽 그린 美 백악관

•   한국: KDI “미 긴축·우크라 전쟁 장기화하면 수출 증가율 5.1%p 감소”

※   KDI: [KDI 현안분석] 대외 불확실성이 국내 실물경제에 미치는 영향

•   서울: ‘조직문화’ 바꾸고 바꾼다… 기업들 소통 넘어 혁신 중

•   머니투데이: 반도체 키운다더니...세액공제 국정과제서 빠졌다

•   머니투데이: [단독]尹취임식 만찬에 5대 그룹 총수 초청...첫 상견례

•   헤럴드경제: 작년 70조 넘긴 법인세…尹, 재계 바라는 최고세율 낮출까

•   헤럴드경제: “ESS 화재 막자”…배터리 안전기준 강화

•   아시아경제: 미래車·인력·임금 놓고 노사 '동상이몽'

•   이데일리(P1): 수렁에 빠진 서학개미…'천슬라' 수익률 보니

•   이데일리: [단독]민주당, 무주택자 취득세 부담 줄인다…'부동산 민심' 공략

•   이데일리: 법인세·양도세 다 깎겠다는 추경호…세입기반 확충 비책 있나

•   이데일리: 28GHz 5G 투자 이행률 11.2% 불과…통신3사, 어떤 제재 받을까?

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 4만7732명 확진…어제보다 1775명 적어

•   연합: "코로나19 이후 G20 국가총부채 비율 낮아지는데 한국은 상승"

•   연합: 500대 기업 지형변화…배터리·케이팝·가상화폐 급부상

•   연합: 작년 신용등급 하락 기업 58곳…상승보다 17곳 많아

•   전자신문(P1): 납품단가 연동제' 또 무산 위기…인수위, 시장 자율로 선회

•   전자신문: 카카오엔터프라이즈, AI기반 물류 플랫폼 공개... "새벽에 만든 초코파이 아침에 배송완료"

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Danielle Hanna, Marta Machado, Denise Vitale): Resisting Brazil’s Retreat from Green

•   Project Syndicate(Edoardo Campanella): Nostalgia Dies Last

•   Project Syndicate(Koichi Hamada): When Does Inflation Stop?

•   Project Syndicate(Joseph S. Nye, Jr.): Soft Power After Ukraine

•   FT(Editorial Board): An EU oil ban is a tightening noose on Russia’s economy

•   FT(Edward Luce): How the Fed lost the plot

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Searching for the bottom

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): How Not to Build Affordable Housing

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): A Bipartisan Energy Deal?

•   WSJ(William A. Galston): How the Ukraine War Changed History

•   WSJ(Karen Elliott House): U.S.-Saudi Relations Finally Start to Thaw

•   WP(David Ignatius): Russia is losing on the electronic battlefield

•   WP(Daniel W. Drezner): The re-Sovietization of Russia

•   WP(Michael McFaul): The West needs to up its sanctions game against Russia

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): The Amazon Economic Indicator Says Inflation Is Easing

•   Bloomberg(Hal Brands): As Putin Gets Desperate, U.S. Should Remember Pearl Harbor

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): Why are Spain and Portugal Getting Special Energy Treatment?

•   Bloomberg(Therese Raphael): Boris Johnson's Partygate Scandal Will Hurt Tories in May Election

•   Bloomberg(Alexis Leondis): How to Get an Inflation Raise Without Changing Jobs

•   MarketWatch(Robert Brusca): The Federal Reserve's biggest mistake: It keeps failing to expect the unexpected