Global Economic Monitor 221028

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street mixed, European shares end nearly flat; sterling, euro fall

•   US: Facebook Parent Meta Shares Fall to New Multiyear Lows

•   Metals: Copper pulls back as China COVID cases rise, dollar firms

•   Grains: Corn futures sag as poor U.S. export sales disappoint traders

[Indicators]

•   US Q3 GDP: U.S. Economy Grew 2.6% in Third Quarter, GDP Report Shows

※   Consumer spending, economy’s main engine, cooled compared with previous quarter

※   BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

※   WSJ: GDP Bounce Might Soon Fade

•   US Sep. Durable goods orders: U.S. core capital goods orders unexpectedly fall in September

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Rose Slightly Last Week

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates(Freddie Mac): U.S. Mortgage Rates Top 7%, Highest in More Than 20 Years

※   Rate for 30-year mortgages hit 7.08%; a year ago it was just over 3%.

•   Eurozone Benchmark rate: ECB raises rates by 75 basis points as markets detect ‘dovish pivot’

※   Euro and government borrowing costs fall after Christine Lagarde highlights mounting risk of recession

※   ECB: Monetary policy decisions

•   Eurozone Aug. : Yellen Lauds GDP Report as Evidence of ‘Resilient’ Economy

•   China Sep. Industrial profits: China Industrial Profits Decline Again on Covid, Property

•   Brazil Sep. Employment: Brazil Unemployment Hits New Seven-Year Low Before Presidential Runoff Vote

•   Taiwan Q3 GDP: Taiwan’s Economy Faces Mounting Risks From Demand Slowdown

[World]

•   WSJ: Peak Fossil-Fuel Demand Is Possible in a Few Years, IEA Says

※   Energy crisis stemming from the Ukraine war is seen hastening a shift to lower-emission sources

※   IEA: World Energy Outlook 2022

•   WSJ: Kyiv Faces Lengthier Blackouts as Russia Assaults Ukraine’s Electric Grid

•   WSJ: Russia Says It Could Target U.S. Commercial Satellites in Ukraine War

•   WSJ: Discontent Rises in Europe as Economic War With Russia Pushes Up Cost of Living

•   WSJ: Inside the Secret Prisoner Swap That Splintered the U.S. and China

•   WSJ: China’s Covid Fight Disrupts Businesses, Food Supplies as Cases Spread

•   WSJ: Taiwan Braces for ‘Grim’ Times After China’s Xi Extends Power

•   WSJ: Iranian Government Shifts Blame for Terrorist Attack to Protesters

•   WSJ: Credit Suisse Resets With a Retreat From Wall Street

•   WSJ: Treasury Says Orders for I Bonds With 9.62% Rate Might Not Be Completed by Deadline

•   WSJ: Amazon Shares Skid After It Gives Weak Outlook Amid Recession Fears

•   WSJ: Apple Reports Record Revenue, Continuing Pandemic Streak

•   WSJ: SEC, DOJ Probe Tesla Over Statements About Autopilot Functionality

•   WSJ: Elon Musk Says Twitter Won’t Be ‘Free-for-All Hellscape,’ Addressing Advertisers’ Concerns

•   WSJ: Intel to Cut Jobs in Cost-Savings Drive as PC Slump Weighs on Earnings

•   WSJ: Caterpillar Says Construction Equipment Remains in Demand, Boosting Sales, Profit

•   NYT: Putin Wants to Divide Ukrainians. Mykolaiv Is a Test Case.

•   NYT: The Biden administration is weighing further controls on Chinese technology.

※   The United States could extend the powerful export restrictions it has issued on China to areas like biotechnology and the algorithms that power artificial intelligence, an official said.

•   NYT: Biden Hopes to Amplify Contrast With Republicans on Economic Policy

•   NYT: Pentagon’s Strategy Says China and Russia Pose Very Different Challenges

•   NYT: The Climate’s Improved Future

•   NYT: With Economy Reeling From Ukraine War, Egypt Secures $3 Billion I.M.F. Loan

•   NYT: A Power Balance Shifts as Europe, Facing a Gas Crisis, Turns to Africa for Help

•   WP: Battle for Senate control marked by volatility as midterms near

•   WP: Democrats scramble into defensive posture in final stage of midterms

•   FT: Putin rejects claims Russia intends to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine

※   Russian president says he sees ‘no point’ in detonating a dirty bomb

•   FT: Biden avoids radical shift in new nuclear weapons policy

•   FT: World on track for up to 2.6C temperature rise by 2100, reports UN

•   FT: German exporters rethink €100bn ‘love affair’ with China

•   FT: Sunak eases off on taking Brexit axe to EU laws

•   FT: Sunak explores tax rises and spending cuts of up to £50bn

•   FT: Spending restraint is coming — Sunak needs to talk about it

•   FT: Australia rides out Chinese sanctions as exports boom

•   FT: Growth does not persist

•   FT: Chinese electric carmakers take on Europe

•   FT: STMicroelectronics warns of slowing revenue growth amid chip downturn

•   FT: What to watch for in this quarter’s Big Oil earnings

•   Bloomberg: Biden Says Xi ‘Concerned’ About Boost in US Chipmaking

•   Bloomberg: Biden Calls on Oil Companies to Cut Prices After Shell Profit

•   Bloomberg: Drop in Used-Car Prices Burn US Auto Dealers But Is Good Sign for Fed

•   Bloomberg: BOE Rate Bets Point to Growing Doubts of a Big November Hike

•   Bloomberg: UK Economy’s Latest Headache is Rising Business Borrowing Costs

•   Bloomberg: China Faces Tough Choices in Currency Defense as Yuan Weakens

•   Bloomberg: PBOC Calls For More Support for Private Builder Bond Sales

•   Bloomberg: Lula Widens Lead Over Bolsonaro Days Before Vote, Datafolha Says

•   Bloomberg: China’s Plunging Market Has Become a High-Risk Bet on Xi Jinping

•   Bloomberg: Stock Traders Are Bracing for More Volatility Ahead of Inflation Data Deluge

•   Bloomberg: China’s Late Buying Spree Gives Some Relief to Global Oil Market

•   Reuters: Germany plans to approve Chinese takeover of Elmos' chip production - Handelsblatt

•   Reuters: Analysis: Brazil's Green New Deal: Lula promises environmental policy overhaul

•   Reuters: Analysis: How Congress might look for Biden post midterms: The good, bad, and the ugly

•   Reuters: Analysis: Xi's new generals offer cohesion over possible Taiwan plans

•   Reuters: Analysis: Deal for reducing military tensions with North Korea could go 'back to square one'

•   CNBC: Asia-Pacific will lead global economic growth in 2023, S&P says

•   SCMP: China’s top legislature ‘deliberates’ on new nominations, as leadership reshuffle stokes market turmoil

•   SCMP: Xi looks for ‘right way’ to mend China-US relations after party congress

•   SCMP: China brushes off US request to resume military dialogues

•   SCMP: South Korean airlines slowly resume China services, but passenger traffic still down over 95 per cent

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan's Kishida to announce $200bn stimulus plan with power subsidy

•   Nikkei Asia: Rahm Emanuel: China keeps tabs on those slow to side with Beijing

•   Nikkei Asia: Self-driving cars: Japan opens roads to Level 4 vehicles in April

[Korea]

•   국회: 여야 ‘레고랜드발 자금경색’ 원인 두고 날선 공방

•   민주당: 박홍근 "이제 예산의 시간…정부여당 '초부자감세' 바로 잡을 것"

•   민주당: 거래소 찾은 이재명 "김진태발 위기 방치한 정부가 리스크의 핵"

•   국민의힘: "고금리 빨대 꽂은 금융권, 고통분담안 내놔라"…압박하는 與

•   정무위: [단독] 민주 "제2의 레고랜드 사태 막자"... 금융위에 지방채 감독권 부여 검토

•   정무위(김성주): 김성주, `레고랜드 사태`에 "`김진태 방지법` 발의하겠다"

•   금융위: 안심전환대출 3억6000만원까지…소득 1억 맞벌이도 받을 수 있어

•   금융위: 은행 예대율 완화로 고사직전 중기 '숨통'

•   금융위: [단독]금융위, 채안펀드 캐피탈콜 사전 조사 ‘착수’…증권사에 납입 가능성 타진

•   금융위: 月70만원씩 5년'…정부 '5000만원 통장'에 3조 투입

•   금융위: 단기시장 불안 키울라…금융당국, 기관에 "추종매매·환매 자제"

•   금감원: 고금리 특판 쏟아지는데, 새 통장 만드는데 한달요?

•   신보: 돈줄 말라붙자… SK-롯데 등 대기업까지 ‘신보 보증’ 문 두드려

•   신보: 신보, 코로나 피해기업에 5432억 P-CBO

•   산은: 고환율에 빚더미 폭탄된 아시아나…속내 엇갈릴 산업은행과 대한항공

•   금융시장: 코스피, 1.7% 올라 2,290선 육박…이달 최고점 경신

•   금융시장: 레고랜드 사태 찬바람…리츠 수익률 14% 하락

•   금융시장: [단독] 통영에코파워…한화 보증에도 회사채 못 팔았다

•   금융시장: [단독] 둔촌주공 시공단 사업비 차환 금리 최대 3배 올라

•   금융시장: 무디스 "채권시장 경색, 기업신용에 부정적…차입금 감당 가능"

•   금융시장: 자본시장법 개정 후폭풍…거래는 절벽인데 오너 재출자는 봉쇄, 메자닌은 투자조합으로

•   금융시장: 동학개미가 채권개미로…올들어 16조 쓸어담았다

•   금융사: "연10% 이자 적금 떴다"…신협, 꼭두새벽 '오픈런'

•   금융사: 4대 금융지주 '은행 쏠림' 더 심해졌다

•   금융사: 비은행 실적에 3분기 희비 갈린 '지방금융 삼총사'

•   금융사: 카뱅, 기업금융 시작…개인사업자 전용 통장·카드·대출 '풀뱅킹' 출시

•   금융사: 두나무·카겜·빗썸·KG이니시스 `연매출 1조클럽`

•   공정위: “항균·방취 기능” 거짓 광고한 유니클로 국내 판매사에 1.5억원 과징금

•   공정위: "탄소중립 아닌 '그린워싱'"…SK윤활유 광고 공정위에 신고

•   소비자원: 소비자원 “전자레인지 조리실 표시 용량 20L라더니 실제는 10L 불과”

•   KDI: KDI "고금리 여파, 내년부터 본격 반영…집값 더 떨어진다"

※   KDI 부동산시장 동향 2022년 3/4분기

•   기재부: 15억 초과 아파트 주담대 허용…尹정부 부동산 규제 확 푼다

※   보도자료: [보도참고] 제11차 비상경제민생회의 후속조치 계획

•   기재부: '삼중高' 고통받는 中企에 금융지원 50조

•   기재부: 민주당 몽니로 ‘종부세 완화·금투세 유예’ 물 건너가나…기재부 “조세저항 커질 것” 경고

•   한은: 3분기 경제성장률 0.3%…소비·설비투자가 역성장 막았다

※   보도자료: 2022년 3/4분기 실질 국내총생산(속보)

•   한은: 한은도 소방수로…금융권 보유채권 6조원 사준다

•   한은: "최대 29조 풀리는 효과"…한은, 2년만에 위기 구원투수로 나섰는데

•   중기부: 3분기 벤처투자 40% 급감…“고금리·불확실성 영향”

•   비금융사: 이재용 회장 시대 "삼성, 사랑받는 기업으로"

•   비금융사: "현실은 엄중, 시장은 냉혹"…회장취임 이재용 직원에 무슨 말했나

•   비금융사: "감산은 없다" 멀리보는 삼성, 반도체 치킨게임 승자 노린다

•   비금융사: 4대그룹 총수 모두 '회장님' 됐다…평균 53세 젊어진 재계

•   비금융사: 횡재세는 무슨…정유업계 3분기 영업익 급감

•   비금융사: [조선 또 멈추나]역대 초유의 현대중공업그룹 3사 동시 파업 초읽기

•   국토위(김병욱): 중개사협에 단속권… 국회 ‘제2의 타다 금지법’ 만드나

•   국토부: 청약 당첨땐 기존 집 2년내 팔면 돼…중도금 대출 12억까지

•   국토부: [단독] 만기 하루 앞둔 둔촌주공 PF, 채안펀드로 긴급 지원

•   LH: 공공택지 ‘1사1필지’로 … LH, ‘벌떼 입찰’막는다

•   부동산원: "서울 강남권도 집 안팔려"…매매수급지수 80선 무너져

•   부동산시장: "하락세는 주춤…금리탓 거래 회복은 어려워"

•   부동산시장: 아파트 덮친 인플레…공사비 증액 '날벼락', 미분양 악몽 '스멀'

•   부동산시장: 국내 건설 암울한 전망…"내년 수주 11% 줄 것"

•   부동산시장: 대형건설사 실적 ‘뚝’ … 수도권 특별공급서도 ‘미달’

•   물류시장: 물류 또 막힌다…철도·화물 나란히 파업 예고

•   고용부: 인력난 좀 풀리려나…외국인 노동자 내년 11만명 역대최대 수혈

•   고용부: 고용부 "영세업체 주60시간 근무, 2년 연장"

•   외통위(안철수): 안철수 "카카오, 메신저 집중하고 다른사업 말아야"

•   외통위(안철수): 카카오가 쏘아올린 ‘독과점 기업분할’…“득보단 실 많아”

•   외통위(태영호): [단독] 태영호, 국회 외통위 간사됐다… ‘탈북민 최초’ 상임위 간사

•   외교통상: “美 IRA 전기차 보조금, WTO·FTA 규정 위반 가능성”

•   국민연금: 국민연금, 증권·보험주 팔았다

•   경찰: ‘연이자 2000%’ 소상공인에 180억 뜯어낸 불법 대부업체

•   법원: 대법 “간접공정 사내하청도 직고용해야”

•   과기부: 과기부, 5G 중간요금제 가입자 수도 모른다… 통신 3사 “영업 비밀”

•   질병관리청: 오후 9시까지 전국 3만4503명 확진…어제보다 832명 늘어

•   서울시: 강변북로·경부간선 지하화 시동…吳 "비용 수조원 예상, 민자 유치"

•   강원도: 강원도 "GJC 보증 2,050억 12월 15일까지 갚겠다"...레고랜드 사태 수습 안간힘

•   강원도: 김진태 “레고랜드 사태 미안한 마음…어떻게든 갚겠다”

•   강원도: [단독] '레고랜드 건설' 영국 멀린, 1억달러 투자 서명이후 고작 50억 출자

•   강원도: ‘GJC 기업회생’ 고집 이유가 ‘부지 헐값 매각 방지’라고 하는데…

•   지자체: 강원發 자금경색 후폭풍… 지자체·지방공기업 비상

•   광주일보: [단독] 광주시, 광주은행에서 1000억원 빌린다

•   울산시: 울산시, 출자·출연 기관장 임기 시장과 맞춘다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Angus Deaton): Who Broke American Democracy?

•   Project Syndicate(Jeffrey Frankel): Why Do Americans Vote for Extremists?

•   Project Syndicate(Nina L. Khrushcheva): From Cuban Missiles to Putin’s Crisis

•   FT(Editorial Board): Russia’s intimidating ‘dirty bomb’ claims

•   FT(Chris Giles): The end of Europe’s energy crisis is in sight

•   FT(Alice Hancock): EU risks undermining climate goals with focus on energy prices

•   FT(Ramin Nakisa): Time for a currency hedge for sterling investors?

•   FT(Zhou Bo): China can use its leverage with Russia to prevent a nuclear war

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Why Democrats Are Losing The Midterms

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Call Them the Biden-Trump Tariffs Now

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Republicans Have No Inflation Plan

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Wonking Out: It’s a Lagged, Lagged, Lagged, Lagged World

•   NYT(Gulnaz Sharafutdinova): Russians Know the Reality of War, and Many of Them Still Support Putin

•   WP(Josh Rogin): Xi’s totalitarian power grab bodes poorly for U.S.-China relations

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): GDP Gives Hope to Democrats But Not Many Others

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): ECB Drains the Punchbowl for Economy and Banks

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): Green Energy Costs Trillions. Oil Savings Can Offset That

•   Bloomberg(Karl W. Smith): Can You Get a Raise in a Recession? Inflation Is Squeezing Households

•   Bloomberg(Clara Ferreira Marques): Russia Is Set to Lose the Energy War It Started

•   Bloomberg(Matthew Brooker): Saudi Swagger Stands Apart in World Full of Doom-Laden Forecasts

•   Bloomberg(Stephen Mihm): Biden's Chip Restrictions on China Are a Cold-War Era Strategy

•   Bloomberg(Stuart Trow): Don't Count on Sunak to Protect Your UK Pension

•   Fox News(Robert Maginnis): China’s Xi seizes total power, threatens international order with economic strength, military

•   매경(박정철): 권익위원장 처신

•   조선(사설): 비상스럽지 않았던 비상경제회의

•   중앙(사설): 비상경제민생회의, 보여주기로 끝나선 안 된다

•   중앙(서경호): ‘비상’경제민생회의 맞습니까

•   문화(연강흠): 회사채 대란 더 키우는 탈원전 후유증

•   세계(사설): 비상한 대책은 나오지 않은 대통령 주재 생중계 경제회의

•   한겨레(사설): 비상한 경제 인식도, 민생 걱정도 안 보인 80분 회의

•   경향(최민영): 김진태발 금융위기

•   아시아경제(송화정): 금융위는 왜 선제적이지 못했나

•   강원도민일보(사설): 강원도 발 금융시장 불안 진정될까