Global Economic Monitor 221011

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Nasdaq registers lowest close since July 2020; chips stocks fall

※   Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index slumps

※   Tech, energy lead S&P sector declines

※   Indexes: Dow down 0.3%, S&P 500 down 0.8%, Nasdaq down 1%

•   UK: UK gilts sell off as Bank of England fails to soothe market

※   Thirty-year borrowing costs shoot higher as government and central bank both seek to reassure investors

•   China: Chinese chip stocks tumble after U.S. calls for new curbs on high-end tech

•   Gasoline: $4 gas could be coming — again

•   Natural gas: European Gas Slips After Wild Swings as Russia Escalates War

•   Metals: Copper firms, but demand prospects weigh on sentiment

•   Grains: Wheat surges, corn firms on Black Sea supply worries

[Indicators]

•   China Q3 Employment sentiment index: China Job Market Prospects at Record Low as Economy Slows

[World]

•   WSJ: Russia Unleashes Its Biggest Barrage of Strikes on Ukraine Since Invasion

※   Cities throughout Ukraine, including Kyiv, were bombarded after Putin slammed Ukraine over a Crimea bridge blast

•   WSJ: Russia’s Putin Seeks to Escalate With Ukraine Strikes as Pressure Builds at Home

•   WSJ: Russia’s Air Attacks in Ukraine Have Little Strategic Value

•   WSJ: Russian Missile Strikes Rattle Ukraine’s Kyiv, but Residents Vow to Carry On

•   WSJ: World’s Emergency-Lending Capacity Is Getting Stretched as Crises Deepen

•   WSJ: Two Fed Officials Make Case for Caution With Future Interest Rate Raises

※   Central bank’s No. 2 official noted that previous and anticipated rate increases will slow the economy in ways that can’t be observed yet

•   WSJ: Fed’s Charles Evans Says Rates Will Need to Remain at Higher Levels

•   WSJ: Nobel Prize in Economics Winners Include Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke

※   Douglas Diamond, Philip H. Dybvig also recognized for research on banks and financial crises

•   WSJ: U.K. Housing Market Heads for Mortgage-Rate Shock

•   WSJ: China’s Covid-19 Lockdowns Deal Another Blow to Consumer Spending

•   WSJ: China PBOC Relaunches Pledged Supplementary Lending Program to Shore Up Economy

•   WSJ: Taiwan’s Leader Tells Beijing Armed Conflict Is ‘Absolutely Not an Option’

•   WSJ: Iraq Can’t Afford OPEC-Mandated Oil Production Cut, Senior Leader Says

•   WSJ: Economic Strength Weakens Outlook for Stocks, Bonds

•   WSJ: Price Increases Come Easily for Big Businesses, but Inflation Still Squeezes Profits

•   WSJ: Nissan Confirms It Is in Talks Over Investment in Renault EV Unit

•   WSJ: U.S. Chip Curbs Threaten China’s Emerging Manufacturers

•   WSJ: Tesla, BYD Break China Delivery Records as EV Rivalry Goes Global

•   NYT: The Cooling Economy

•   NYT: Russian troops will return to Belarus in large numbers, Lukashenko says.

•   NYT: India and China, which have refrained from criticizing Russia, call for de-escalation.

•   NYT: As Warehouses Multiply, Some Cities Say: Enough

•   WP: Who will succeed Xi Jinping as China’s leader? It’s complicated.

•   FT: Backlog of ships strains Ukraine-Russia Black Sea grain export deal

•   FT: Why the untangling of global supply chains isn’t good news

•   FT: Challenge against EU ‘green’ label for gas and nuclear energy steps up

•   FT: Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats steer to victory in Lower Saxony

•   FT: German commission of experts outlines €91bn energy aid package

•   FT: Fed-led dash for higher rates risks ‘world recession’, warns top EU diplomat

•   FT: Russians awakening to cost of Putin’s invasion, says UK spy chief

•   FT: Hungary to help build oil pipeline to ship Russian crude to Serbia

•   FT: Bank of England steps once more unto the breach

•   FT: What is the new Bank of England short-term lending facility?

•   FT: UK companies face bigger cash calls from pension funds after LDI crunch

•   FT: Pension schemes’ rush for cash shakes UK corporate debt

•   FT: BoE governor faces week of tough questions in Washington

•   FT: Kwarteng gives himself three weeks to come up with debt-cutting plan

•   FT: Liz Truss shows a newfound belief in economic orthodoxy

•   FT: Sturgeon says Scottish independence will secure partnership of UK’s nations

•   FT: US and Germany lead calls for climate action at World Bank meetings

•   FT: US has few good options in countering Opec oil cuts

•   FT: UAE leader to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow

•   FT: Crackdowns, lawsuits and intimidation: the threat to freedom of expression in India

•   FT: Beware the cold monetary shower

•   FT: US banks to set aside $4bn for potential losses from bad loans

•   FT: Hydrogen fund Hy24 raises €2bn as investors seek to tap clean energy shift

•   FT: Tesla hits China sales record as Beijing praises Musk’s Taiwan proposal

•   FT: Campaign to make Big Tech pay for telecoms networks gathers pace

•   FT: ‘Loss and damage’ debate set to dominate the COP27 agenda

•   FT: Food and energy crises threaten to distract from climate talks

•   FT: Carmakers take control of supply sourcing as battery costs rise

•   FT: Are central banks going bankrupt?

•   Bloomberg: IMF, World Bank Warn of Increasing Risk of Global Recession

•   Bloomberg: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Expects US Recession in Six to Nine Months

•   Bloomberg: Powell Set to Rebuff Pressure on Fed as Finance Chiefs Meet

•   Bloomberg: ‘No Possibility of Reconciliation’ as US Slams China Chips

•   Bloomberg: Germany Backs Joint EU Debt for Loans to Ease Energy Crisis

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Knot Urges ‘Significant’ Steps at Next Two Meetings

•   Bloomberg: Emerging Markets Already in Crisis Situation, Deutsche Bank Says

•   Bloomberg: Japan Reopens Borders, Betting on Tourism Recovery Boom

•   Bloomberg: Asia Trade Pact Members ‘Taking Our Time’ With UK Application to Join, Canada Says

•   Bloomberg: Commodities Rally Boosted Latin America Growth Outlook, IIF Says

•   Bloomberg: Argentina’s Political Crisis Restarts With Ministers Leaving

•   Bloomberg: The Most Powerful Buyers in Treasuries Are All Bailing at Once

•   Bloomberg: Russia Loses 60% of Its Seaborne Crude Market in Europe

•   Bloomberg: Biden Wants to Build Winter Fuel Supplies, Market Says Otherwise

•   Bloomberg: Saudi Arabia Expected to Meet Asia Oil Demand in Full Next Month

•   Bloomberg: How Biden’s Chip Actions May Be Broadest China Salvo Yet

•   Reuters: U.N. publicly rejects Russia's call for secret vote on Ukraine

•   Reuters: U.S. Congress could be in for bruising debt-ceiling fight after midterms

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Iran racing to expand enrichment at underground plant, IAEA report shows

•   Reuters: Analysis: How China's Xi accumulated power, and why it matters in a third term

•   Reuters: Analysis: Europe Inc's wage hikes alarm investors as worries about recession grow

•   Reuters: Analysis: British banks' mortgage payday comes with sting in the tail

•   CNN: The threat of a freight railroad strike is back

•   CNBC: HP, Lenovo and Dell see PC shipments continue to decline in Q3, while Apple bucks the trend

•   SCMP: Promotion of Xi Jinping’s legacy ramps up ahead of 20th party congress

•   SCMP: China’s 20th party congress should send a friendly message to capitalists

•   SCMP: ‘Inescapable’ economic pressure keeps China’s GDP target out of reach

•   SCMP: China, no longer a ‘passive onlooker’, plays new role in African conflicts

[Korea]

•   대통령실: [단독]尹 "경제위기에 청년 가장 취약" 고강도 대책 마련 지시

•   대통령실: [관가뒷담] 설명자료 일더미 파묻힌 관가

•   국회: 막대한 예산 눈감고… 여야 ‘포퓰리즘’ 경쟁

•   국회: [단독]국감장 3시간 40분 대기… 한마디도 못하고 나왔다

•   정무위: 이복현 11일 국감 데뷔… 도이치모터스·태양광 난타전 예고

•   정무위: 5대 은행장 국감 줄소환…쟁점은 '횡령·내부통제’

•   정무위(민병덕): 반도체난·금리인상에…은행 오토론 직격탄

•   정무위(송석준): "'토스' 등 선불충전 악용 보이스피싱 5년간 310배 증가"

•   정무위(송석준): 어린이집이 매년 1900곳씩 사라졌다

•   정무위(양정숙): 대부분 보험사, 정보통신망 허술…'정보보호' 인증 안받아

•   정무위(양정숙): [단독] ‘부’ 승격 앞둔 보훈처, 격 떨어진 제 식구 감싸기

•   정무위(윤창현): [단독]캐피탈사 부동산PF 연체 상반기만 2290억...3년 전보다 '15배'

•   정무위(윤한홍): 文정부 기재부·금융위·금감원서 97명 금융회사로

•   정무위(윤한홍): 시장조성자 사라지니 해당 종목 일거래량 최대 70%까지 급감

•   정무위(이용우): 속 터지는 금감원 분쟁조정…올 5건 처리 그쳐

•   정무위(최승재): [단독] 연평균 265만 원···배달라이더에겐 여전히 높은 '종합보험' 문턱

•   금융위: 금융사 부실 방지·증시 급락 방어 '비상카드 3종' 꺼낸다 [금융위기, 선제대응카드는]

•   금융위: '깜깜이 공매도' 사라지나... 불법 공매도 세력 정보, 어디까지 공개 가능?

•   예보: 은행에 맡긴 내 돈, 1억까지 보호받는다…당국, 상향 검토

•   캠코: 주택특별공급 부실운영…금융위, 캠코 '기관경고'

•   금융시장: 자고나면 오르는 금리…정기예금 5%시대 초읽기

•   금융시장: 금리 0.5%P 더 높아야 저축은행 매력적인데

•   금융시장: "금리 노마드족 잡아라"... 금리 경쟁으로 몸집 불리는 인뱅들

•   금융시장: 월가 투자 대가 하워드 막스 "지금 시장 떠나는 건 실수다"

•   금융시장: [NOW] “주식 그만합니다” 손떼는 투자자 증가

•   금융시장: "8억 넣었는데 반토막"…신불자 위기 처한 카뱅 직원 '비명'

•   금융시장: 카뱅 주가 급락에 해외 기관도 곤혹 [시그널]

•   금융시장: 논란의 태양광 대출…부실 대출인가 신사업 지원인가?

•   금융시장: "비싸다" 거침없는 SELL...韓 증시 흔드는 외국계 리포트 파워

•   금융시장: 여전채 금리도 껑충… 돈 구하기 힘든 카드사들

•   금융시장: "쳐다도 안본다"…심리도 수급도 망가진 회사채시장

•   금융시장: "금리 급등하는 지금이 적기" vs "섣불리 덤볐다가 큰코다쳐"

•   금융시장: 우량채도 냉각…채안펀드 두고 “지금 풀자” vs “시기상조”

•   금융시장: “혁신이냐, 밥그릇 침해냐”… 보험·카드업계 ‘전통 vs 빅테크’ 전쟁

•   금융시장: 금리인상에 고환율까지...금융사들 손실 방어 총력전

•   금융시장: 당했으면서도 또 코인 투자 …2030 '고수익 사기' 주의보

•   금융시장: [알립니다] 제23회 서경 금융전략포럼 ‘금융, 경계를 넘어 컨버전스로’

•   금융사: 차기 수협은행장 5명 출사표… 내부출신이 4명

•   금융사: `테라` 권도형 19일 여권 무효화… 신병확보 속도

•   산업연구원: 4분기 제조업 경기전망 더 짙은 먹구름…신산업·ICT도 부진

•   권익위: [단독]감사원, 전현희 비리 대신 '감사 방해' 혐의로 권익위 수사 요청

•   기재위(김상훈): 국민 1인당 세부담 4년 새 300만원 ‘쑥’

•   기재위(진선미): "금리 오르는데…" 전세대출 변동금리 비중 94%

•   기재위(진선미): 근로소득 상위 0.1%인데 세금 한 푼도 안 낸 사람 8명

•   기재부: 내년 경영계획 짜야 하는데…답 없는 정부에 기업만 ‘한숨’

•   기재부: 정부가 감원계획 내랬더니, 한수원·석유公·SR “0명”

•   거시경제: "일본보다 나쁘다"…한국, 6개월째 경기하강 '초비상'

•   거시경제: "환율 급등 원인은 복합적…경제심리 악화·위안화 절하도 영향"

•   거시경제: "못 받을 세금" vs "그래도 믿어야" 개혁 방치에 MZ서도 갈린 국민연금 [리빌딩 국민연금]

•   거시경제: [3040 파워 이코노미스트]⑤ 김성은 교수 “韓 리스크 대응력 의심 생기면 큰 문제…정부, 위기 가능성 너무 낮게 평가”

•   산자위: 원전 부활에 필요한 ‘고준위 방폐장’… 특별법 통과가 관건

•   산자위(구자근): "택시 연매출 3천만원…9천만원 버는 배달사업자 3분의 1"

•   산자위(권명호): [단독] 文정부 탈원전 후폭풍…핵폐기물 비용 동결에 1.4조 폭탄

•   산자위(노용호): [단독] 文정부 발전소는 늘렸지만…송·변전 인프라 미비로 줄줄 샌 전력

•   산자위(박수영): [단독] 文정부 산업부 "전기요금 인상은 탈원전과 무관"

•   산자위(박수영): [단독] 새만금 해상풍력 이어 태양광 기업들도 中 영향권에

•   산자위(양금희): 신재생 보급 늘었는데, 관련 일자리·매출은 왜 줄었지

•   산자위(최형두): [단독] “北 EMP에 대비, 원전 안전 평가해야” 국정원 요청을 文정부 한수원이 거부

•   산자위(한무경): ‘한계기업’ 5년새 15% 급증, 고금리 덮친 올해 크게 늘 듯

•   경제단체: [단독] 기업들 '금리인상 포비아'…한은 빅스텝 2번 땐 이자부담 12조 증가

•   경제단체: 금융위기급 소비 침체 온다..고물가 장기화에 얼어붙은 수요

•   경제단체: 소규모 제조업체 51% “추가연장 근로제 계속 유지해야”

•   경제단체: "법인세율 3.3%p 내려가면 GDP 10년간 연평균 1.4% 성장"

•   비금융사: 1년새 성장률 5분의 1토막…카카오 '문어발 확장' 毒 됐다

•   비금융사: 카카오, 줄인다던 계열사 134개로 더 늘어…조직·사업 '대수술' 불가피

•   비금융사: [단독] 카카오모빌리티, IT 불모지 ‘화물 중간물류’ 공략한다

#N/A

•   비금융사: D램 위축에 삼성·SK '그로기' 우려…"국가대항전서 낙오될 수도"

•   비금융사: 밀어줘도 부족할 판인데…韓국회 반도체법 심사도 안해

•   비금융사: 정의선 리더십… 영업익 10조시대 연 현대차 [정의선 회장 2년]

•   비금융사: 경영 발걸음 빨라지는 이재용, 회장 승진 임박?

•   비금융사: "최소 4주 기다려야"...국내 상륙 아이폰14, '삼성전자 천하' 흔들까

•   비금융사: “10분 뒤 냉장고 문 부족” 알림뜨자 물류로봇이 달려왔다

•   비금융사: "한전 ESS 사업, 대기업 독식…중소기업도 먹고살게 해달라"

•   비금융사: [단독] '중고거래 1위' 당근마켓…분쟁해결률은 54% 불과

•   비금융사: 독일 싱크탱크 "콘텐츠사가 망비용 내는 한국, 서비스 질 하락"

※   WIK-Consult: Competitive conditions on transit and peering markets

•   국토위(유경준): '공공 도심복합사업' 무더기 취소되나‥이르면 12월 후보지 철회

•   국토위(이종배): [단독] '이틀 중 하루는 출장' HUG 사장…출장보고서도 대부분 '불투명'

•   부동산시장: [단독]압구정현대 평당1억 깨졌다…금가는 강남불패

•   부동산시장: 대세가 된 월세…年 거래 100만건 돌파

•   부동산시장: [단독] "월세만 찾아요"…외국인 깜짝 놀란 '한국 전세' 사라지나

•   부동산시장: 고액 월세도 인기…100만원 이상 거래량 '역대 최대'

•   부동산시장: "집값 더 떨어지면 그때에"…서울 주택 증여도 반토막

•   부동산시장: [단독] '둔촌주공' 상가 갈등에 또…공사 재개 암초

•   부동산시장: “집값 떨어졌는데 분양가가 왜이래?” 사전청약 포기하는 당첨자들

•   부동산시장: 심화하는 서울 역전세난…2년 전 시세보다 싼 전세 매물 속출

•   환노위(박대수): "중대재해 조사결과 '기간내 보고' 위반 10건 중 3건꼴"

•   환경부: [단독] 중국산 오토바이 '매연 질주'…배출가스 소프트웨어 조작

•   노동시장: 취업열기 예전 같지 않으니… “건설사 기술인력이 늙어간다”

•   외교통상: 김정은, 한국 겨냥해 전술핵 훈련 지휘

•   경찰: [단독] 시중은행도 당했다… 신종 전세사기 일당 검거

•   경찰: [단독] 경찰청 인권위원회, 임기 석달 남기고 14년 만에 전원사퇴

•   법사위: '강대강' 국정감사 2라운드…화약고는 감사원

•   법사위(박주민): [단독] 권익위 근태 점검하면서 자기 자료 제출은 거부한 감사원

•   검찰: 루나 사태 5개월…검찰, '가상화폐=증권' 입증 주력

•   감사원: [단독] 식물국감 자초하는 감사원…요청 자료 30% 미제출

•   감사원: [단독] “대통령 지원기관”이라는 감사원장, 성난 직원들 해명 거부

•   교육부: [단독] 이주호, 집 주변서 정치자금 1,500만원 사용…"열정적으로 일한 결과" [취재파일]

•   과방위(박완주): 통신3사, 28㎓ 기지국 설치 이행률 11%… “콘텐츠 등 민간 연구 활성화 필요”

•   복지위(아종성): [단독] 공무원연금 2명·사학연금 5명…해외투자 느는데 인력 제자리

•   복지부:"예산 100조, 차관급 3명"..'여가부 폐지'로 위상 높아진 복지부

•   질병관리청: 오후 9시까지 전국 1만4975명 확진…어제보다 6400여명 늘어

•   여가부: '여가부 폐지'라 쓰고 '인구차관 신설'이라고 읽는다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Ana Palacio): The West’s Role in the Global Food Crisis

•   Project Syndicate(Minxin Pei): Blowing Down the CPC’s House of Cards

•   Project Syndicate(Carl Manlan): Mobilizing Corporate Assets for Sustainable Development

•   Project Syndicate(Lawrence H. Summers): A New Chance for the World Bank

•   Project Syndicate(Josef Joffe): Putin’s Crazy Game

•   FT(Editorial Board): Vladimir Putin’s brutal vengeance on Ukraine

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Why I’d rather have Liz Truss than Xi Jinping as a leader

•   FT(Martin Sandbu): A Nobel for an economic model with real world application

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Picking risks

•   FT(Ruchir Sharma): Biden should act now on the wrecking-ball dollar

•   FT(Richard Bernstein): It’s not all about a Fed pivot

•   FT(Alexander Gabuev): The risks of escalation in the Ukraine war are rising fast

•   FT(Lex): Chip embargo: US curbs will arrest development of Chinese tech

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): The Quagmire of Climate-Change Diplomacy

•   WSJ(Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pompeo): China’s Threat to Taiwan Semiconductors

•   NYT(Ezra Klein): Joe Biden Knows How to Use Donald Trump

•   NYT(Kerry Brown): Xi Jinping Is a Captive of the Communist Party Too

•   WP(Editorial Board): A winter pandemic wave is looming. Get the booster.

•   WP(Carl Bildt): This is best way to counter Putin’s nuclear threats

•   WP(Sophie Richardson): Democracies must stand firm against Xi Jinping’s next assault on human rights

•   WP(David Byler): Biden is unpopular, but Democrats lead 2022 polls. What gives?

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): The 2022 Economics Nobel Should Come with a Warning

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): The Challenge of Global Disinflation

•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Another Romance With Fed Pivot Breaks Investors’ Hearts

•   Bloomberg(Bill Dudley): The Federal Reserve Owes the World a Mea Culpa

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): America’s Defense of Saudi Arabia Is an Asset, Not a Liability

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Market's Pivot Mirage Keep Running Into the Fed's Macro Reality

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): UK Gilt Chaos Ends for Traders as BOE Damage Assessment Begins

•   Bloomberg(Andy Mukherjee): Indian Tech Firms Have Bigger Problems Than the Fed

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): China's Party Congress Can't Ignore Covid-Zero. A Reopening Would Be Swift

•   Bloomberg(Julian Lee): Saudi Arabia Decides Where to Wield the OPEC+ Axe

•   Bloomberg(Chris Bryant): The Car Industry Is Facing a Big Affordability Crisis

•   Bloomberg(Clara Ferreira Marques): Crimean Bridge Attack Hit Putin Where It Hurts

•   Bloomberg(Allison Schrager): If You Think US Pensions Are Safe, Just Wait

•   Bloomberg(Stuart Trow): How Do We Fix Bernanke's Fixes? That's for a Future Nobel

•   Fox News(Rick Perry): America’s energy chaos is Biden’s fault. As we pay at the pump, will Democrats pay in midterms?

•   매경(유승훈): 인플레이션 감축법 이렇게 본다

•   한경(전광우): 글로벌 복합위기 키우는 '4대 화약고'

•   조선(사설): 한전 부실로 산업은행 대출 여력이 33조원 줄어든다니

•   연합뉴스(시론): 금융부채 고위험 38만가구, 선제적 관리 중요

•   메트로신문(이영석): 핵심 빠진 가상자산 국감…소문난 잔치에 먹을 것 없다