Global Economic Monitor 221027

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: World stocks slip from 5-week peak as dollar continues retreat

※   Nasdaq, S&P 500 dragged by disappointing earnings

※   Sterling continues rally, hits highest since mid-September

※   Britain delays tax and spending plan announcement to mid-Nov

•   US: Chinese Stocks in US Rally, Erasing Most of Record Selloff

•   China: Offshore Yuan Rises Most on Record as China Banks Sell Dollars

•   Natural gas: European Gas Gains as Key Crisis Measures May Come Too Late

•   Metals: Weakening dollar pushes industrial metals prices higher

•   Grains: Soy, wheat futures rise as weaker U.S. dollar raises export hopes

[Indicators]

•   US Sep. Goods trade balance: US Goods-Trade Deficit Widens for the First Time Since March

※   FT: US exports record oil volumes as fuel price tensions build

•   US Sep. New home sales: New-Home Sales Fell Nearly 11% in September Amid Rising Interest Rates

•   US Oct. Auto sales: U.S. auto sales to rise in October as supply chains improve - report

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Mortgage demand from homebuyers is now nearly half what it was a year ago

•   China Oct. Economic activity(Bloomberg): China’s Economy Slows in October as Business Confidence Slumps

•   Brazil Benchmark rate: Brazil Holds Interest Rate at 13.75% Before Presidential Runoff Vote

[World]

•   WSJ: What’s the Inflation Rate? It’s a Surprisingly Hard Question to Answer

•   WSJ: Companies Seek Guidance on New U.S. Minimum Tax as Launch Date Nears

•   WSJ: Biden Touts U.S. Steps to Curb Fees Tied to Banking, Concerts and Travel

•   WSJ: With Student-Loan Forgiveness on Hold, Millions Wonder What’s Next for Their Money

•   WSJ: China’s Xi Jinping Set to Give ‘Wolf Warrior’ Diplomacy More Bite

•   WSJ: China-Linked Internet Trolls Try Fueling Divisions in U.S. Midterms, Researchers Say

•   WSJ: Ukraine Calls for More Air-Defense Help as Russian Barrages Continue

•   WSJ: Iran Protests Mark 40 Days of Mourning for Mahsa Amini

•   WSJ: Credit Suisse Nears Sale of Securitized-Products Group

•   WSJ: Accounting Errors to Cost Executives Their Bonuses Under SEC Rule

•   WSJ: Apple Urges Its Suppliers to Decarbonize Manufacturing

•   WSJ: Facebook Parent Meta’s Earnings Fall Short as Revenue Decline Accelerates

•   WSJ: Microsoft’s Struggles Enter the Metaverse

•   WSJ: Microsoft Casts a Very Big Cloud

•   WSJ: The Musk-Twitter Deal as Seen in Tweets

•   WSJ: Ford to Take $2.7 Billion Charge on Argo Driverless Startup Stake

•   WSJ: Boeing Reports $3.3 Billion Loss, Weighed Down by Defense Unit Charges

•   NYT: Climate Pledges Are Falling Short, and a Chaotic Future Looks More Like Reality

•   NYT: Fetterman’s Debate Showing Raises Democratic Anxieties in Senate Battle

•   NYT: New U.S. sanctions target Russian efforts to manipulate the politics in Moldova, a neighbor of Ukraine.

•   NYT: Republicans Denounce Inflation, but Few Economists Expect Their Plans to Help

•   NYT: Russia Intensifies Its Propaganda Campaign Against Ukraine

•   NYT: Shunned by the West, Russia and Myanmar Form a Partnership of Unequals

•   WP: Biden officials worry pandemic exhaustion could lead to bad covid winter

•   WP: European allies worry U.S. could dial back support for Ukraine

•   FT: Russia conducts first nuclear weapons drill since its invasion of Ukraine

•   FT: France and Germany seek to move beyond tensions with Paris talks

•   FT: ECB to start talks on shrinking balance sheet amid bond market turmoil

•   FT: Germany allows Chinese shipping group a stake in its biggest seaport

•   FT: Hunt seeks breathing space with new date for UK Autumn Statement

•   FT: UK public finances shift from ‘moron premium’ to ‘dullness dividend’

•   FT: Proportion of UK workers on low pay at lowest level since 1997

•   FT: How Bolsonaro built a rightwing movement

•   FT: South Africa to transfer up to two-thirds of Eskom debt to government

•   FT: European banks’ bumper quarter raises prospect of windfall taxes

•   FT: European banks finally start to feel benefit of rising rates

•   FT: Wall Street banks split over EM equities outlook after $2tn rout

•   FT: Bear market rally II

•   FT: Saudi wealth fund targets $24bn investment in Arab states

•   FT: Chip start-up pushes into Taiwan in quest for ever-smaller chips

•   FT: Apple critics hit out at latest App Store changes

•   FT: ‘Tech cold war’: rising tensions in the critical chip industry

•   FT: The energy crisis could drive people back to the office

•   Bloomberg: Biden Team Reworks Plan for Russia Oil-Price Cap as Markets Sour

•   Bloomberg: Mnuchin Warns Market Watchers Who Misread Fed May Be Wrong Again

•   Bloomberg: Inflation Has Middle Class Americans Worried About Economy Ahead

•   Bloomberg: EU Targets ‘Zero Pollution’ by 2050 to Curb Premature Deaths

※   European Commission: European Green Deal: Commission proposes rules for cleaner air and water

•   Bloomberg: Europe Is Running Out of Time to Act on Gas Before Winter

•   Bloomberg: Italy’s Meloni Mulls New Aid Package Worth Up to €10 Billion

•   Bloomberg: Macron to Announce New Energy Price Aid for Companies on Friday

•   Bloomberg: German Factories Have Done Almost All They Can to Save Gas

•   Bloomberg: Spain Says It Can Avoid Recession Despite Headwinds

•   Bloomberg: Euro’s Drop Risks Inflation Via Imports, German Minister Says

•   Bloomberg: Xi’s Vow of World Dominance by 2049 Sends Chill Through Markets

•   Bloomberg: China Wants to ‘Speed Up’ Its Seizure of Taiwan, Blinken Says

•   Bloomberg: China Plans to Increase International Flights From This Weekend

•   Bloomberg: Wuhan Locks Down Part of City Center as Covid Cases Emerge

•   Bloomberg: How Xi’s Shakeup Shattered Decades of Succession Rules in China

•   Bloomberg: China Says It’s Historically ‘Closer Than Ever’ to Taiwan Unity

•   Bloomberg: BOJ’s Kuroda Faces Balancing Act to Avoid Tanking Yen

•   Bloomberg: BOJ Boosts Super-Long Bond Buying as Yield Pressure Grows

•   Bloomberg: Yellen Respects Japan’s Intervention Non-Disclosure, Kanda Says

•   Bloomberg: Bolsonaro, Lula Retool Campaign Game Plans on Eve of Brazil Vote

•   Bloomberg: Europe Risks Diesel Supply Shock as Russia Oil Sanctions Near

•   Bloomberg: Global Oil Flows Shift as Russia’s Hit By Sanctions, Says Aramco

•   Bloomberg: Apple Supplier Grapples with Covid Flare-Up in iPhone City

•   Bloomberg: The World’s Biggest Source of Clean Energy Is Evaporating Fast

•   Bloomberg: Global Warming to Exceed Catastrophic 2C Even if Governments Hit Climate Targets

•   Bloomberg: World’s Largest CO2 Removal Deal Ever Depends on Tech That Isn’t Ready Yet

•   Bloomberg: A Clean Energy Super Grid Across Asia Is Closer to Reality

•   Reuters: Global economy approaching a recession, central banks unchained: Reuters poll

•   Reuters: U.S. Inflation Reduction Act a risk to Europe's industrial base, EU's Vestager says

•   Reuters: Exclusive: Tesla faces U.S. criminal probe over self-driving claims

•   Reuters: Abandoned Russian base holds secrets of retreat in Ukraine

•   Reuters: Analysis: Behind facade of unity, Franco-German relations falter as crises mount

•   CNBC: White House hammers economic issues with attack on ‘junk fees’ two weeks out from Election Day

•   CNBC: IEA says developing nations are the No. 1 casualty of the energy crisis

•   CNBC: iPhones will get USB-C charging after Apple says it will have to comply with EU law

•   MarketWatch: Recession ahead? This bond-market indicator is flashing a ‘code-orange’ warning

•   SCMP: Overblown national security concerns pushing China, US closer to cold war, expert says

•   SCMP: Cautious US, EU responses to China’s party congress signal widening gulf with West

•   SCMP: After Xi Jinping solidifies power, China’s new leadership line-up must restore confidence in managing the economy, experts say

•   SCMP: If China can’t get American tech, maybe US allies will be more open to supplying chips

•   SCMP: Chinese exports to North Korea of wine, whisky and vodka surge after Pyongyang declares victory over Covid

•   SCMP: China sets out 15 ideas to boost foreign investment, with ‘easing’ expat travel, smart manufacturing in focus

•   Nikkei Asia: Weak yen strains Japan's budget by tacking $1bn onto payments

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan's Kioxia opens new memory fab amid market downturn

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Was Hu Jintao about to express discontent?

[Korea]

•   탄녹위: 尹 "文정부 탄소감축 목표, 과학적 근거 없어"

•   국회: 표심에 눈 먼 의원님들…이번엔 '직방' 막아섰다

•   민주당: 박홍근 “레고랜드 진태양난”… 채무보증 선 최문순엔 침묵

•   민주당: '폭락장'인데 주식양도세라니…'투매 악몽' 덮친다

•   민주당: 올 -30%인데 세금까지 내라니…개미들, 증시서 짐 싼다

•   민주당: 내년 상품 설계·마케팅 모두 중단…속타는 증권사들

•   정무위(윤영덕): [단독]대부업 대환대출 급증..고금리 시대 ‘빚 돌려막기’ 늪 시작

•   정무위(윤창현): 대부업체에서도 서민들 문전박대

•   정무위(윤창현): 불법 사금융 피해 1만건 육박… 2년새 두배 늘었다

•   금융위: 금융위, 국책은행에 ‘채권 발행 자제’ 요청

•   금융위: '코인 전담기구' 금융위 산하로…내달 기본법 제정안 발표

•   금융위: [단독] 금융위, 내주 온라인 예·적금 비교 서비스 심사한다

•   금융위: 저축은행 건전성 강화…다중채무자 대출에 충당금 추가 적립해야

•   주금공: 역마진 탓 팔수록 손해…주금공 MBS 발행 또 무산되나

•   기은: 기업은행, 3분기 만에 '순익 2조 클럽'

•   금융시장: 코스피, 외인 매수에 상승 마감…2,250선 턱밑

•   금융시장: 소수점 거래 허용 한달…개미들 16억어치 샀다

•   금융시장: 기업 자금조달 어려워진다…초우량 공항공사도 금리 6% 넘어

•   금융시장: 한전채 '잔혹사'…또 모집 물량 미달

•   금융시장: 정부 대책에도 싸늘한 여전채 시장…이달 발행액 '반토막'

•   금융시장: 금리 더 오를텐데 누가 사겠나…'유동성 딜레마' 빠진 채권시장

•   금융시장: 채권시장 양극화' 기관들 '쇼핑리스트'에 MBS만 담는다

•   금융시장: 강제상환 특약에 7%대 고금리채 발행 잇따라… 자금조달 사활 [대기업 돈줄가뭄 '고육지책']

•   금융시장: 13개 지자체가 1조701억 지급보증…경산시 2370억 최고

•   금융시장: 증권업계 '제2채안펀드' 만들어 ABCP 매입

•   금융시장: "현금 쌓아야 버틴다"…보험사들, 이달에만 채권 2조 팔아

•   금융시장: 금융위 부인에도 '관치' 논란…증권사별 부담액 놓고 갈등

•   금융시장: 이대론 증권사 줄줄이 도산…급한불 부동산PF 핀셋 지원

•   금융시장: 대형 건설사도 “연말 만기 채권 상환할 현금 모자라”

•   금융시장: 온투업 PF대출도 800억…서민금융 덮치나

•   금융시장: 달콤했던 단기·저리의 PF-ABCP, 유동성 위기 실타래 엮은 주역

•   금융시장: 3분기 일평균 외환거래액 6.7% 뚝… 등돌리는 서학개미

•   금융시장: "자금경색 풀려도 내년 재발 가능… 금융안정화기구 선제 정비해야"

•   금융시장: 재계·금융사 CEO 6명 한목소리…"글로벌 ESG 공시기준 완화해야"

•   금융사: 4대 금융지주, 손 쉬운 이자장사 쏠림 심화

•   금융사: 엇갈린 은행계 증권 3사 실적 하나 ‘깜짝’ 신한 ‘끔찍’ KB ‘깜찍’

•   금융사: 부동산PF 부실 우려 강타한 4대 금융지주 실적발표회

•   금융사: 조달비용 늘자…카드사 실적도 '뚝'

•   금융사: "가계부채·부동산PF 리스크 관리해야"

※   하나금융경영연구소: 2023년 금융산업 전망

•   금융사: BNK금융 차기 회장 조기선출?… 외부 인사도 물망

•   공정위: 가습기살균제 ‘거짓·과장 광고’ 인정…공정위, 애경·SK케미칼 ‘뒤늦은 고발’

•   공정위: 한기정 공정위원장, 과거 로펌 자문 고려 가습기살균제 심의 불참

•   소비자단체협의회: 배달비 공시제 ‘있으나 마나’

•   KDI: 韓 무역적자 '킹달러 충격'…6개월새 60억弗 혹 붙였다

•   권익위: 감사원, 전현희 수행비서도 수사 의뢰

•   권익위: “감사원이야말로 직권남용”…수사 의뢰에 법적대응 맞선 전현희

•   기재위(장혜영): 금리 계속 뛰는데… 비싼 카드론 급증

•   기재부: '나라 곳간 지킨다'던 정부, 농식품 바우처 5兆 뿌린다

•   기재부: 재정지원 줄줄이 싹둑…스타트업 아우성

•   통계청: 올 출산율 0.7명까지 추락…사망자는 역대 최대

•   한은: 이창용 만난 5대은행장…"은행채 담보로 자금 빌리게 해달라"

•   한은: [단독] 한은, 차액결제 담보비율 인상 유예 검토…"5조원 효과"

•   한은: 4분기 신용위험 '빨간불'…기업대출 문턱 더 높아진다

•   한은: [단독] 한은, 이익 줄었다…내년 잉여금 3분의1로 급감

•   산업부: 탄소중립핵심기술개발사업, 대폭 삭감 위기

•   산업부: [단독] 원전 살린다더니 '핵연료 재활용' 무산위기

•   중기부: 중기 3분기 對中 수출 9% 급감

•   한수원: [단독] 韓, 폴란드 원전 참여 사실상 확정...기술이전 추진

•   한수원: [단독]한수원, 사외이사 반대에도 '임시 방폐장' 강행

•   경제단체: 평균연령 43세… 늙어가는 제조업 근로자

•   경제단체: 전경련 "한국 법인세제, G5보다 기업에 불리…경쟁력 취약"

•   비금융사: 하이닉스마저 실적쇼크…투자축소·감산 돌입

•   비금융사: "낸드값 20% 더 떨어질것"…반도체 경기 4분기가 더 두렵다

•   비금융사: 경쟁사 줄줄이 감산하는데…메모리 1위 삼성의 선택은?

•   비금융사: 디스플레이도 적자 수렁 깊어져

•   비금융사: 배터리 풀충전…LG엔솔·삼성SDI 3분기 '깜짝 실적'

•   비금융사: 불황 넘은 애플효과…LG이노텍 웃었다

•   비금융사: 거침없는 삼바…올 누적매출 2조 넘어

•   비금융사: [단독] 삼성전자 이사회, 오늘 오전 이재용 회장 선임 논의

•   비금융사: "다른 사람들이 쓰니 별수없죠"…207만명 카톡 돌아왔다

•   비금융사: 카카오 임원 스톡옵션 이익 실현, 500대 기업 중 최대

•   비금융사: ‘카카오 서비스 먹통’ 완전 정상화까지 총 127시간30분 걸려

•   비금융사: 국회 지적, 김범수 사과에도… 카카오T, 주차 ‘독점 노출’ 프로모션 계속

•   비금융사: [단독] “데이터센터연합회, 리튬배터리실 별도 설치 의무화 막아”

•   비금융사: 돈줄 마른 기업들, 줄줄이 투자 축소… 기계 수입도 감소

•   비금융사: 국제 노선 속속 정상화… 항공권 발권 급증

•   비금융사: [단독]판 커진 인앱결제 소송전…美 본사도 조준

•   비금융사: 올 철강 생산 ‘역성장’인데…中·日서 후판 수입은 2배 급증

•   비금융사: 정의선 "이젠 퍼스트 무버"…2030년 글로벌 전기차 점유율 12% 달성

•   비금융사: IRA 얘기 쏙 빼고…바이든 "조기 착공 기뻐"

•   비금융사: 현대차, 차량 데이터통신 100배 빨라진다

•   비금융사: 수년째 불황, 위기의 우유업계 “푸르밀 폐업은 예고편에 불과”

•   비금융사: "에너지 전환은 제2 산업혁명…30년간 1京시장 열린다"

•   비금융사: 한화, 미수금만 9000억원…이라크 비스마야 철수 앞두고 책임공방 '여전'

•   비금융사: [단독] 두산, 태국 발전소와 증기터빈 공급계약 체결...아시아 공략 확대

•   국토부: '미혼특공' 생긴다…1인 청년도 85㎡ 당첨 가능

•   국토부: 둔촌주공 20대 주인 나오나…민간분양 85㎡도 추첨 도입

•   국토부: "청년이라 혜택준다? 청년 청약물량 확대에 40대 부글부글"

•   노동시장: 코로나 완화로 다시 출근…재택 18만명 '뚝'

•   외통위(안철수): 독과점 지속 때 강제분할…'플랫폼 규제법' 내놓은 안철수

•   행안부: [단독] “지키는 게 바보”…코로나 자가격리 사실상 손뗀 정부

•   감사원: 감사원, 석 달간 해경에 28차례 ‘서해 피격’ 공문…“비협조 땐 징역형” 겁박

•   과기부: 정부, 카카오 무료서비스 보상 가이드라인 제시한다

•   aT: 외식 식재료 원가 또 사상최고… 물가 자극

•   질병관리청: 오후 9시까지 전국 3만3671명 확진…1주 전보다 8917명 많아

•   질병관리청: "7차 대유행 온다"…추가접종, 18세이상으로 전면확대

•   국정원: [단독] 핵심은 ‘인사 갈등’…“조 실장 인사안 뒤집혔다”

•   지자체: [관점] ‘묻지마 예산’ 157조…지방재정 성역화로 ‘빚더미’ 일본 전철 밟을라

•   강원도: [단독] 최문순, 감사원 `경고` 무시…`레고랜드 사태` 키웠다

•   강원도: [단독] 김진태는 왜 ‘GJC 회생신청’하나… 작전세력 놀이터 레고랜드, 강원도가 감사 못한 이유는

•   강원도: [단독] 지사 바뀌니 사업명칭도 바꾼다? 강원도 혈세 낭비 논란

•   강원도: 레고랜드 기반공사비 130억 원도 미지급…강원도 부담 가중

•   강원도: 하루 이자만 2천만원 '빚덩이 레고랜드 사태' 발단과 GJC 회생 가능 여부 초미관심

•   도봉구: 덕성여대에서 멈춘 휠체어 “장애인도, 청소노동자도 차별하는 대학”

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Sarah Lake, Nico Muzi): Europe’s Meat Habit and the Global Food Crisis

•   FT(Editorial Board): Europe’s Franco-German motor needs mending

•   FT(Edward Luce): America’s brittle consensus on Ukraine

•   FT(Leo Lewis): The real corporate cost of decoupling is becoming clear

•   FT(Jesper Koll): Why the yen will rally from its current pain point

•   FT(Nicholas Dunbar): A shock looms for governments over inflation-linked bonds

•   FT(Christian Davies): South Korea must remember the abuses Pyongyang would rather forget

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): A Progressive Reversal on Ukraine Letter

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): How China Abuses U.S. Diplomats

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): California’s Corporate Exodus

•   WSJ(Robert B. Zoellick): Russian Cash Can Keep Ukraine Alive This Winter

•   WSJ(Karl Rove): Biden’s Losing Midterm Message for Democrats

•   WSJ(Andrew Lymm, et al.): Are Electric Cars Actually the Future?

•   WSJ(Mickey D. Levy): China Is About to Fall Into the Middle-Income Trap

•   NYT(Thomas L. Friedman): Putin Is Onto Us

•   NYT(Yuen Yuen Ang): An Era Just Ended in China

•   WP(George F. Will): The flummoxed Federal Reserve deserves a new variation on the Peter Principle

•   Bloomberg(Bill Dudley): The UK’s Bond-Market Mess Won’t Happen in the US

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): China's New Economic Stars Face Policy Challenges

•   Bloomberg(Conor Sen): Federal Reserve Pullback? Not If It's Watching the Bond Market

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Stock Rally Faces a Wall of Risk in Fed, Jobs and Midterms

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): The Fed’s Cunning Plan to Make You Feel Poorer

•   Bloomberg(Julian Lee): Russia’s Big Concern Is Finding Buyers for Oil Shunned by Europe

•   Bloomberg(Lionel Laurent): After UK Chaos, Emmanuel Macron and Giorgia Meloni Face Inflation Test

•   Bloomberg(Thomas Black): Trucking Swerves Erratically Across the US Economy

•   MarketWatch(Peter Morici): Biden is undermining Powell's efforts to curb inflation

•   Fox News(Marco Rubio): When the stock market celebrates, the bond market spoils the party — because the Fed will raise interest rates to as high as 7%

•   Fox News(Mark Penn): The inflation electorate will hold Biden and Democrats accountable at midterms

•   한경(사설): 얼어붙은 자금시장, 정부 위기관리 역량 본격 시험대 올랐다

•   서경(사설): 돈 가뭄 속 이자 놀이로 최대 이익 거둔 은행들

•   서경(사설): 연말 투매 재연 막으려면 금투세 유예 추진해야

•   조선(사설): 고금리로 앉아서 29조원 번 은행들, 대출금리 인상 자제를

•   조선(사설): 5대 그룹까지 ‘돈맥 경화’, 실물 침체 겹치는 내년이 더 위험

•   동아(사설): ‘자금대란’에 투자마저 급랭, 금융·실물 동반위기 대비할 때

•   한국(사설): 감사원 전현희 수사 의뢰, 무리한 감사 아닌가

•   국민(사설): 등 떠밀려 가습기 업체 뒷북 제재한 공정위

•   한겨레(사설): 이번엔 권익위원장, 감사원 ‘묻지마 수사의뢰원’ 되나

•   파이낸셜뉴스(사설): 지자체 보증채무 이행 사후약방문 안돼야

•   아시아경제(최일권): '레고랜드발 돈맥경화' 여당이 안보인다

•   아시아경제(채진원): 오세훈 시장은 ‘주민자치 바로세우기’ 나서야

•   이데일리(사설): 자금시장에 폭탄 던진 강원도, 유사 사태 다신 없어야

•   디지털타임스(사설): 가계 신용위험 급등 속 은행 최대 이익… 금리 그늘 방치 안돼