Global Economic Monitor 250129

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Tech stocks, dollar rebound after DeepSeek-triggered selloff

※   Nasdaq adds 2%, Nvidia shares rebound

※   Safe-haven currencies retreat, tariff talk also boosts dollar

※   10-year Treasury yields little changed

※   Brent crude prices advance 0.6%

•   Metals: Copper Rises in US and Slips in London After Trump Tariff Threat

[Indicators]

•   US Nov. Case–Shiller home price: U.S. Home Prices Gained Further Toward End of 2024

•   US Dec. Durable goods orders: US Core Business Equipment Orders Increase by More Than Forecast

•   US Jan. Consumer confidence: U.S. Consumers Lose Confidence at Start of Trump’s Second Term

•   France Jan. Consumer sentiment: French Households Start 2025 on a Less Pessimistic Note

[World]

•   WSJ: White House Spending Freeze Tries to Flip Script on Busted Budget Process

•   WSJ: Why Tariffs Are a Key Wild Card for the Fed

•   WSJ: The Americans Pledging to Buy Less—or Even Nothing

•   WSJ: How China’s DeepSeek Outsmarted America

•   WSJ: DeepSeek Is Upending Wall Street’s Big AI Power Trade

•   NYT: The Fed Is About to Hit Pause on Rate Cuts. Here’s Why.

•   WP: More Americans take on a second job or side hustle. They come at a cost.

•   Bloomberg: Trump's Tariffs Hit US Growth Before, and Threaten to Again

•   Bloomberg: EU Plans Tariffs on Agricultural Products From Russia, Belarus

•   Bloomberg: German Industry Lobby Sees Economy Shrinking 0.1% This Year

•   Bloomberg: Chile Holds Interest Rate at 5% in First Easing Pause Since July

•   Bloomberg: Huawei’s Google-Free Phones Are Making Real Progress

•   Bloomberg: AI’s Electricity Demand Means Cool New Tech Is Coming to Boring Grids

[Korea]

•   대통령실: [단독] 尹 옥중 설 메시지 "일신보다 나라 앞날 걱정"…"아내 건강 걱정" 김 여사 첫 언급

•   민주당: 민주당 "설 끝나면 추경·민생회복지원금·연금개혁 논의하자"

•   민주당: [단독] 野, '여론조사 사전심사 면제' 조항 손본다…원본 자료 보관기간 연장도 검토

•   기재부: 사무관 이어 과장급도 이탈...사람 빠지는 기재부

•   국토부: 김해공항서 에어부산 항공기 꼬리에 불… “승무원·승객 176명 전원 탈출”

•   국토부: 분양가 80%까지 '청년주택드림대출' …신혼부부 특공도 확대

•   공항공사: 연휴 5일간 인천공항서 57만명 "해외로"

•   헌재: [단독] 이재명·문형배, 과거 SNS서 수차례 '문답'…"'다이빙벨' 봤다, 진실은 뭘까" 글도

•   헌재: [단독]“이미선 재판관 회피해야”…尹 변호인단, 의견서 제출키로

•   검찰: [단독] "계엄 선포문 다 나눠줬다"더니‥국무위원들 "못 받았다"

•   고용부: 고령화사회 가속에 작년 55∼64세 경제활동 참가율 역대 최고

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Kenneth Rogoff): Europe in Trump’s Crosshairs

•   Project Syndicate(Karim El Aynaoui, Hinh T. Dinh): Economic Development after the Washington Consensus

•   Project Syndicate(Yi Fuxian): Yi Fuxian Says More…

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The DeepSeek AI Freakout

•   WSJ(Donald L. Luskin): How Much Do Tariffs Matter?

•   WP(Eric Schmidt, Dhaval Adjodah): Will China’s open-source AI end U.S. supremacy in the field?

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): Americans are watching an inflation bait-and-switch

•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): The Fed Will Duck and Weave on Policy, But Not for Long

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): If Wall Street Wants to Buy More Houses, Let It

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): Trump Bluster Alone Won't Budge King Dollar

•   Bloomberg(Catherine Thorbecke): DeepSeek Is No Chat(Xi)PT. For Now