Global Economic Monitor 250128

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: China's AI drive hits tech stocks, boosts safe havens

※   China's DeepSeek has investors questioning tech and AI valuations

※   Global shares slide, led by tech sector

※   Broad risk-off mood grips markets; yen and Swiss franc gain

※   US bonds rise, pushing yields to multi-week lows

※   Oil prices down around 2%

[Indicators]

•   US Dec. New home sales: US New-Home Sales Jump at End of 2024 to Post Second Annual Gain

•   Germany Jan. Ifo business climate: German Business Sentiment Edges Up Despite Gloomy Outlook

•   France Q4 Employment: French Joblessness Rose at End of Year Amid Economic, Political Woes

•   China Jan. PMI: China Factory Activity Shrinks Ahead of Lunar New Year

[World]

•   WSJ: Stuck in a Traffic Nightmare, a Region Turns Its Anger on a 3-Inch Figurine

•   WSJ: Germany’s Economic Model Is Broken, and No One Has a Plan B

•   WSJ: Even China’s Property Stalwart Isn’t Immune From the Crisis

•   WSJ: Kim Jong Un Is Doing Everything He Can to Keep North Korea’s Youth in Line

•   WSJ: Shippers Wary of Red Sea Routes Despite Houthi Pledge to End Targeting

•   WSJ: Arabica Coffee Prices Hit New High on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

•   WSJ: DeepSeek Won’t Sink U.S. AI Titans

•   NYT: Nvidia Reels After China’s A.I. Breakthrough

•   WP: Federal Reserve expected to stand pat on rates even as Trump demands cuts

•   FT: Latin America scrambles to respond to Trump’s aggression

•   Bloomberg: PBOC Injects Record Liquidity Using Its New Tool, Delays RRR Cut

•   Bloomberg: China’s Great Coupon Handout Far From Enough to Spur Consumption

•   Bloomberg: Russian Oil Sanctions Mean Mideast Crude Is Strongest in Years

•   Bloomberg: Iraq’s Rumaila Oil Field Output Down 300,000 Barrels a Day After Fire

[Korea]

•   대통령실: [단독]윤 대통령 “처음부터 각오하고 시작한 일”

•   국회: 與 "검수완박에 사법혼란" 野 "내란세력 단죄 시작"

•   국회: 국힘 45.4% vs 민주 41.7% 與 상승세 6주만에 '주춤'

•   기재부: [세종시 프리즘] 과장급 인사 앞두고 '청탁 금지령' 내린 崔대행

•   금융시장: 새해 가계대출 1조7000억 증가... 주담대만 1조5000억

•   금융사: 함영주 하나금융 회장 연임…회추위 "검증된 리더십 절실"

[Opinions]

•   NYT(David Wallace-Wells): DeepSeek’s Two Seismic Possibilities for American A.I.

•   FT(Editorial Board): DeepSeek defies America’s AI supremacy

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): What the global south gets wrong about Trump

•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss): South Korea’s Growth Is a Casualty of Its Political Impasse

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): DeepSeek Exposes Market Risk Hiding in Plain Sight

•   Bloomberg(Parmy Olson): DeepSeek Shows Silicon Valley’s Huge Blindspot on AI