Thursday, January 30, 2025

Global Economic Monitor 250131

(Introduction)

[Markets]
※   Global stocks up after Meta, Tesla earnings
※   Microsoft tumbles after downbeat cloud outlook
※   Dollar dips, gold hits record as traders rush to borrow metal
※   Fed keeps U.S. rates steady, ECB cuts rates


[Indicators]
•   US Weekly Jobless claims: US weekly jobless claims decline more than expected
•   Eurozone Benchmark rate: ECB Cuts Rates With Economy at a Standstill


[World]


[Korea]


[Opinions]
•   Project Syndicate(Amar Bhidé): Is DeepSeek Really a Threat?
•   Project Syndicate(Michael Spence): What’s Wrong With Germany’s Economy?
•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Spending Freeze Panic
•   WP(Editorial Board): TikTok should be shut down
•   Bloomberg(Chris Hughes): Protecting Consumers Is Not Anti-Growth
•   Bloomberg(Catherine Thorbecke): Why Chinese Tech Keeps Surprising the West
•   Bloomberg(Chaminda Jayanetti): Labour Is Missing a Trick on Raising Taxes

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Global Economic Monitor 250130

(Introduction)

[Markets]
※   Fed leaves rates steady, drops reference to inflation 'progress'
※   Wall Street indexes slip before mixed Microsoft, Meta, Tesla earnings
※   European stocks hit record high after China AI-driven volatility
※   Oil prices settle down around 1%
※   Dollar index little changed


[Indicators]
•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications(MBA): Mortgage demand drops further, even as interest rates settle


[World]


[Korea]


[Opinions]
•   Project Syndicate(Adnan Mazarei): Egypt’s Economic Crisis May Not Be Over
•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): OPEC+ Will Buckle Under Trump's Pressure

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Global Economic Monitor 250129

(Introduction)

[Markets]
※   Nasdaq adds 2%, Nvidia shares rebound
※   Safe-haven currencies retreat, tariff talk also boosts dollar
※   10-year Treasury yields little changed
※   Brent crude prices advance 0.6%


[Indicators]
•   US Nov. Case–Shiller home price: U.S. Home Prices Gained Further Toward End of 2024
•   France Jan. Consumer sentiment: French Households Start 2025 on a Less Pessimistic Note


[World]


[Korea]


[Opinions]
•   Project Syndicate(Kenneth Rogoff): Europe in Trump’s Crosshairs
•   Project Syndicate(Karim El Aynaoui, Hinh T. Dinh): Economic Development after the Washington Consensus
•   Project Syndicate(Yi Fuxian): Yi Fuxian Says More…
•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The DeepSeek AI Freakout
•   WSJ(Donald L. Luskin): How Much Do Tariffs Matter?
•   WP(Eric Schmidt, Dhaval Adjodah): Will China’s open-source AI end U.S. supremacy in the field?
•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): The Fed Will Duck and Weave on Policy, But Not for Long
•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): If Wall Street Wants to Buy More Houses, Let It
•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): Trump Bluster Alone Won't Budge King Dollar
•   Bloomberg(Catherine Thorbecke): DeepSeek Is No Chat(Xi)PT. For Now

Monday, January 27, 2025

Global Economic Monitor 250128

(Introduction)

[Markets]
※   China's DeepSeek has investors questioning tech and AI valuations
※   Global shares slide, led by tech sector
※   Broad risk-off mood grips markets; yen and Swiss franc gain
※   US bonds rise, pushing yields to multi-week lows
※   Oil prices down around 2%


[Indicators]
•   Germany Jan. Ifo business climate: German Business Sentiment Edges Up Despite Gloomy Outlook


[World]


[Korea]


[Opinions]
•   FT(Editorial Board): DeepSeek defies America’s AI supremacy
•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): DeepSeek Exposes Market Risk Hiding in Plain Sight

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Global Economic Monitor 250127

(Introduction)

[Markets]
※   Dollar slides after Trump softens stance on China tariffs
※   Chinese stocks get boost from Trump comments
※   Yen volatile after expected rate hike from BOJ


[Indicators]


[World]


[Korea]


[Opinions]
•   Project Syndicate(Stephen S. Roach): Trump’s Trade Scam
•   Project Syndicate(Stuart P.M. Mackintosh): The Fed Is Running Scared of Trump
•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Great Biden Welfare Blowout
•   WSJ(Andy Kessler): Trump Tariffs Are a Wealth Killer
•   Bloomberg(Daniel Moss, Gearoid Reidy): Japan’s Central Bank Drops the Drama and Wins on Rates