Global Economic Monitor 240212

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Global equities notch third weekly gain; US yields up

•   US: Key Treasury Yields Reach 2024 Highs Amid Optimism on Economy

[Indicators]

•   US Weekly Rig count: U.S. oil drillers cut most rigs since May 2016 -Baker Hughes

•   China Jan. New Yuan loans: Chinese Banks’ January Loan Issuance Beat Expectations

[World]

•   WSJ: Special Counsel Expected Heat for Biden Inquiry. His Report Sparked a Political Inferno.

•   WSJ: Biden Has More Than an Age Problem. Voters Don’t See Him as Presidential.

•   WSJ: The Cost of Biden’s Climate Tax Credits Is Soaring

•   WSJ: 40% of Lawyers Are Women. 7% Are Black. America’s Workforce in Charts

•   WSJ: Invasion of Gaza Border City Looms as Biden Calls Israel’s Offensive ‘Over the Top’

•   WSJ: Hamas Military Compound Found Beneath U.N. Agency Headquarters in Gaza

•   WSJ: Defying Biden, Israel’s Netanyahu Doubles Down on Plans to Fight in Rafah

•   WSJ: NATO Leader Blasts Trump’s Suggestion He Would Encourage Russian Invasion of U.S. Allies

•   WSJ: Ukraine Says Russia Is Using Starlink at the Front Line, Prompting Pushback From Elon Musk

•   WSJ: China’s Carbon Emissions Are Set to Decline Years Earlier Than Expected

•   WSJ: U.S.-China Tensions Have a New Front: A Naval Base in Africa

•   WSJ: Pakistan Election Turmoil Deepens as Party of Imran Khan Calls for Protests

•   WSJ: Pakistan Sees Imran Khan Followers Protest Over Allegations of Election Rigging

•   WSJ: Apple’s New Face Computer Is for Work

•   WSJ: Permian Rivals Near Deal to Create $50 Billion Oil-and-Gas Behemoth

•   NYT: Trump Says He Gave NATO Allies Warning: Pay In or He’d Urge Russian Aggression

•   NYT: Favoring Foes Over Friends, Trump Threatens to Upend International Order

•   FT: Inside European finance’s most secretive society

•   FT: US banking profits plunged 45% in final months of 2023

•   FT: China’s consumers tighten belts even as prices fall

•   FT: Anatomy of a coup plot: how Brazil’s Bolsonaro tried to cling to power

•   FT: How AI is transforming the business of advertising

•   Bloomberg: Biden Calls S&P 500 Record a ‘Sign of Confidence’ in US Economy

•   Bloomberg: Logan Says Fed Should Take Time to Assess More Data Before Cuts

•   Bloomberg: Another ‘Great Retirement’ Wave Hits the US After Stocks Rally

•   Bloomberg: ECB Warns Banks to Grasp Real Estate Risks or Face Capital Hits

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s March Projections Key for Rate Path, De Cos Says

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Panetta Says Time for Reversal of Policy Stance Is Near

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Centeno Prefers ‘Gradual’ Drop in Interest Rates, TSF Says

•   Bloomberg: ECB Will Probably Cut Rates This Year, Villeroy Says

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Kazaks Says Bets on Spring Rate Cuts Look Optimistic

•   Bloomberg: Indonesia Polls Favor Ex-General Seen Bolstering Ties With China

[Korea]

•   대통령실: 尹,설연휴 첫날 환경공무관과 떡국 조찬

•   대통령실: [단독]대통령실, 언론 접촉 늘린다…간담회 추진 검토

•   국회: 두달 앞 다가온 총선 … 與野 잠룡들 '정치적 명운'도 가른다

•   국회: 곧 2월 임시국회…금투세 폐지 등 7개 세제 입법과제 험로 예고

•   민주당: 민주, 통합비례정당 비례배분 고심…4년전 더불어시민당 모델?

•   국민의힘: [단독] 한동훈 "국민의힘, 곱셈 공천할 것"

•   국민의힘: [동앵과 뉴스터디]“서울 절반 먹겠다”는 與, 49개 지역구 전수 해부!

•   개혁신당: 이낙연·이준석 '제3지대 빅텐트' 막올랐다

•   정무위: "의원님 해결해주세요"…'개미 총선테마' 부상한 ELS 사태

•   정무위(이용우): “홍콩 ELS, 당국도 책임…이복현·한동훈, 상법 바꿔야”

•   금감원: 공매도·홍콩 ELS·코인 ETF까지…총선 선그은 이복현[최훈길의뒷담화]

•   금감원: "올해 금감원 MBTI는 'ESTP'"…의미심장한 의미 뜯어보니 [금융당국 포커스]

•   금융시장: '코리아 디스카운트' 고려?…작년 주요기업 배당 9.3% 증가

•   금융시장: 역전세 반환대출 5개월간 1천600건 '찔끔'…올해 7월 종료

•   금융사: ‘이자 장사’ 비판에 4대 금융지주, 지난해 비이자이익 50% 증가

•   기재위(양경숙): 종합소득 격차 1위 '서울' 상위 0.1%, 年65억 번다

•   기재위(양경숙): 금리 인하는 멀었는데…다중채무자 450만명 '역대 최다'

•   기재위(진선미): 직장인 평균 연봉 4214만원 상위 2만명은 10억원 달해

•   통계청: 식료품값 넉달째 6%대 '고공행진'…상반기 물가 또 오른다

•   한은: 작년 중소기업 대출금리 평균 5.34%…11년 만의 '최고'

•   환노위(노웅래): [단독] 정부 체불임금 대리지급액 7000억 육박…역대 최고치

•   과기부: 휴대전화 보조금 상한 없애면…"가계부담 완화·통신사 이익↓"

•   국방연구원: 2030년에는 입대 장병 5% '다문화 출신'

•   의료계: '의사파업' 긴장감 고조 12일 전공의 총회 주목

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Dani Rodrik): America’s Emulation of China Calls for New Rules

•   Project Syndicate(Scott Duke Kominers): The Rise of Consumer Crypto

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): A Tipping Point on Biden’s Decline

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): CBO Shows the U.S. Is Paddling Toward the Fiscal Falls

•   FT(Rana Foroohar): America now has a high-pressure economy

•   FT(Ann Harrison): Now is the time to put people before robots

•   FT(David Zervos): The Fed put is back — and in a stronger, more flexible form

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): Sustainability: Corn, Oil Lobbies Should Forget EVs, Focus on Airlines

•   Bloomberg(Allison Schrager): Is TikTok's Financial Advice Any Good? As an Economist, I Say Yes

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Dow 5,000 Rang in ’90s Boom. What About S&P 5,000?

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): Real Estate Woes: This German Lender Is Too Small to Survive, Too Big to Fail

•   Bloomberg(Aaron Brown): New SEC Rule Will Impair the World's Most Important Market

•   Bloomberg(Lara Williams): Clean Energy: Germany Makes a Risky Bet on Hydrogen