Global Economic Monitor 220401

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: U.S., European stocks suffer worst quarter since pandemic

•   Metals: Aluminium heads for biggest quarterly gain since 1988

•   Grains: Soybeans fall to 1-month low on U.S. acreage forecast, corn firms

•   한국: 우크라 긴장 완화에 코스피 2,750대 상승 마감…기관 순매수

•   한국: 삼성전자 죽 쓰는데…반도체 장비주만 신났네

[Indicators]

•   US Feb. Personal spending·income: Inflation Weighed on Consumer Spending Growth in February

※   Annual inflation rose to 6.4% using the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge

※   WSJ: U.S. Inflation Rises to 40-Year Peak in February by Fed’s Preferred Measure

※   WSJ: Inflation Could Create a Sticky Situation

•   US Weekly Jobless claims: U.S. Jobless Claims Edge Higher Amid Tight Labor Market

•   Eurozone Feb. Employment: Europe’s workers face bigger squeeze from real wage cuts

•   Germany Feb. Retail sales: German retail sales recover less than expected in February

•   UK Q4 GDP(final): UK economic growth in fourth quarter beats initial estimate

•   UK Mar. House prices: UK house prices rise at fastest pace in 18 years

•   China Mar. PMI: China’s manufacturing, services activity contract together for first time since Wuhan coronavirus outbreak

※   China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in March, down from 50.2 in February

•   Japan Feb. Industrial production: Japan Feb. industrial output almost flat, car production recovers

•   India Q4 Current account: India’s Current Account Deficit Widens to Near Decade High

•   India Feb. Core industry production: India's Feb infrastructure output grows 3.7% year on year

•   한국 1분기 국세통계: 걷지못한 국세 100조 육박… 부가세 체납만 27조

•   한국 2월 사업체노동력: 숙박·음식업 종사자 4개월째 전년동기대비 증가

•   한국 2월 금융기관 가중평균금리: 가계대출 금리 연 4% 목전…6% 넘는 주담대도 나왔다

•   한국 2월 주택통계: 2월 주택매매량 전년 대비 50%↓…거래절벽 속 미분양 증가

•   한국 주간 아파트 가격(부동산원): "대통령 집무실 온다"…용산 아파트값 9주 만에 상승 전환

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukrainian Troops Push Forward as Russian Forces Regroup

※   Western officials say there are signs Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t being told the truth about the war’s progress

•   WSJ: Russia Hands Control of Chernobyl Back to Ukraine, Officials Say

※   Russians’ departure ends a five-week occupation of the site of the 1986 disaster that killed more than 30 people and contaminated the surrounding countryside

•   WSJ: Ukraine War Set to Prompt NATO Countries to Raise Military Spending

•   WSJ: Ukrainian Factories Struggle as Russia’s Assault Rattles Supply Chains

•   WSJ: Russia Set for Steep Slump and Long Stagnation in Wake of Ukraine War

※   An analysis by a top regional development bank sees Ukraine’s economy shrinking more but rebounding sharply next year

※   EBRD: EBRD sees war on Ukraine causing major growth slowdown

•   WSJ: U.S. Sanctions Russian Tech Companies, Whole Sectors of Russian Economy

•   WSJ: Ukrainians Who Sheltered in the Mariupol Theater Made It a Thriving Village

•   WSJ: OPEC Sticks to Production Plan Despite Elevated Oil Prices Amid Ukraine War

※   Cartel agrees to keep small output increase despite rocketing prices

※   OPEC: 27th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting

•   WSJ: Biden to Draw Down Oil Reserves in Bid to Ease Gas Prices

※   U.S. will tap record 180 million barrels over six months; oil industry says president should instead remove barriers to energy investment

※   White House: FACT SHEET: President Biden’s Plan to Respond to Putin’s Price Hike at the Pump

•   WSJ: U.S. Oil Release Could Have Been More Strategic

•   WSJ: Upbeat Economic Outlook Aids Biden’s Deficit Push

•   WSJ: Following Fed’s Lead, Banks Shift Forecasts to Big Rate Increases

•   WSJ: Getting a Mortgage Gets a Little Easier

•   WSJ: Commodities Are Poised for Best Quarter in 32 Years

•   NYT: Faced with foreign pressure, Russians rally around Putin, poll shows.

•   NYT: Soaring Cost of Diesel Ripples Through the Global Economy

•   NYT: Can Home Prices and Interest Rates Soar at the Same Time?

•   NYT: Rising Wages Could Complicate America’s Inflation Cool-Down

•   NYT: Two Covid Problems

•   NYT: This Is What Happens When Globalization Breaks Down

•   NYT: Covid, Russia and Economy Put the ‘China Model’ to the Test

•   NYT: France’s Far Right Turn

•   NYT: Myanmar Junta’s Political Prisoners Since Coup Now Number 10,000

•   WP: Ukraine worries about disaster as Russia targets nuclear power plants

•   WP: Americans aren’t really buying into the ‘Putin price hike’

•   WP: Ukraine has widened the breach between U.S. and Persian Gulf countries

•   WP: Boris Johnson’s effusive support for Ukraine comes with complications

•   WP: What is the strategic oil reserve, and can it lower gas prices?

•   WP: A robot dog called Spot is helping restore the ancient city of Pompeii

•   FT: Putin issues decree requesting ‘unfriendly’ countries pay for gas in roubles

※   Russia’s president threatens supply disruption unless target nations comply

•   FT: Russia sanctions threaten to erode dominance of US dollar, says IMF

•   FT: Western powers oppose linking Ukraine peace talks to Russia sanctions relief

•   FT: Russia’s Ukraine war forges new unity of EU purpose on China

•   FT: Brussels treads fine line with China on Russia

•   FT: Putin ‘massively misjudged’ Ukraine war, says UK spy chief

•   FT: UK businesses face April ‘cliff edge’ as most pandemic support ends

•   FT: UK or EU law? Time to decide

•   FT: Meet the ‘crypto caucus’: the US lawmakers defending digital coins

•   FT: Hong Kong to stick with zero-Covid despite easing, says Lam adviser

•   FT: BoJ to boost bond buying even as yen suffers worst month since 2016

•   FT: Banks face new standards on carbon emissions disclosure

•   FT: Huawei faces dilemma over Russia links that risk further US sanctions

•   FT: The investigation that threatens to sink US solar

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Targets Russian Chipmaker in Fresh Round of Sanctions

•   Bloomberg: Governments Must Act to Ease Tight Labor Markets, IMF Study Says

※   IMF: Labor Market Tightness in Advanced Economies

•   Bloomberg: Biden Trade Agenda Criticized by Senators for Lack of Ambition

•   Bloomberg: Almost Half of U.S. Small Firms Are Raising Compensation

•   Bloomberg: Biden Embraces Oil as Ukraine War Overwhelms His Climate Agenda

•   Bloomberg: Euro zone growth barely positive in first half: ECB's de Guindos

•   Bloomberg: China’s Covid Lockdowns Strain Economy and Global Supply Chains

•   Bloomberg: Xi Keeps China Investors Guessing With Mystery Politburo Meeting

•   Bloomberg: China’s Crackdown on Hong Kong Democracy Intensified, U.S. Says

•   Bloomberg: China Says it Opposes U.S. Putting Its Firms on Security List

•   Bloomberg: China Weighs Raising Billions to Rescue Troubled Financial Firms

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Criticizes India on Russia Talks as Lavrov Visits Delhi

•   Bloomberg: Brazil’s Moro Leaves His Presidential Candidacy Up in the Air

•   Bloomberg: Australia Looks to Reduce Dependence on China Due to ‘Coercion’

•   Bloomberg: India Set to Miss Modi’s Ambitious 2022 Renewables Goal

•   Bloomberg: Bondholders Brace For Russian Expulsion From $842 Billion Club

•   Bloomberg: Transcript: Hugh Hendry On Why the World Still Can't Get Enough Dollar Assets

•   Bloomberg: Embattled U.S. Credit Faces Threat of Asian Buyers Staying Home

•   Bloomberg: Emerging Markets Cap Dismal Quarter Shaken by War, Inflation

•   Bloomberg: UBS Says Stock Bull-Market Intact Amid Worst Quarter Since 2020

•   Bloomberg: Russian Isolation Chills Debt Market for Ex-Soviet Neighbors

•   Bloomberg: Rubles-For-Gas Plan Explains Why Gazprombank Escaped Sanctions

•   Bloomberg: Russia Offers Discounts on Oil to India, One of Putin's Few Fuel Buyers

•   Bloomberg: Biden Wants Oil Companies to Pay Penalties on Unused Drilling Leases

•   Bloomberg: Oil Drillers Say Scarce Steel a Reason for Flat U.S. Output

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Oil Curve Flattens as Crude Release Blunts Supply Risk

•   Bloomberg: Soy Usurps King Corn as U.S. Farmers Dodge Pricey Fertilizer

•   Bloomberg: Apple Weighs More Memory Chip Suppliers, Including China

•   Bloomberg: Toyota Poised for Sales Victory Lap as Gas Prices Boost Hybrids

•   Bloomberg: Tesla's Big Addition of Electric-Car Superchargers in China Helps Boost Sales

•   Bloomberg: Challenges in Finding Renewable Energy Solutions Sustainable for Today, Tomorrow

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Automation Comes to More Factories With Robot Subscription Services

•   Reuters: Putin targets enemies at home as his missiles strike Ukraine

•   Reuters: Russia bars more top EU officials in response to sanctions

•   Reuters: ECB concerned over indirect impact of Russia sanctions: Enria

•   Reuters: EU will do 'whatever it takes' to rebuild solar energy manufacturing in Europe

•   Reuters: Russia against U.S., NATO military presence near Afghanistan - TASS

•   Reuters: Taiwan studying Ukraine war tactics, discussing with U.S.

•   Reuters: IMF to start talks with Sri Lanka on loan request in coming days

•   Reuters: Analysis: End of an era in sight as euro area borrowing costs sweep above 0%

•   Reuters: Analysis: Governments want COVID vaccine developers to aim higher in hunt for better shots

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. and allies may find tapping stockpiles inadequate to plug Russian oil gap

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. stocks, bonds flash diverging signals as volatile first quarter ends

•   CNN: Signs of a housing bubble are brewing

•   NBC: One in 5 adults has invested in, traded or used cryptocurrency, NBC News poll shows

•   CNBC: U.S. sanctions global network of firms helping the Russian military evade export controls

•   CNBC: Take China and Russia’s ‘no limits’ relationship with a ‘grain of salt,’ says former PBOC advisor

•   CNBC: China’s zero-Covid policy tests small businesses in a make-or-break it year

•   Fox Business: Biden's pivot on US oil production draws ire from progressives, climate advocates

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: China’s small firms bemoan lack of support as Omicron wave threatens economic recovery

•   SCMP: China’s tourism industry braces for Ching Ming Festival with lockdowns and travel restrictions

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Shanghai lockdown heaps pressure on China’s GDP growth, with ‘more uncertainties’ to come

•   SCMP: Coronavirus: Shanghai extends lockdown for areas where cases are found

•   SCMP: US-China tech war: top Chinese chip makers push ahead with expansion plans despite political tensions, talk of supply glut

•   Nikkei Asia: U.S. and Japan invite ASEAN in plan to avert next chip crisis

•   Nikkei Asia: Food inflation takes bigger bite in Japan, with bread leading way

•   Nikkei Asia: Ukraine war curtails pandemic's two-year PC boom

•   Mainichi: Japan's long-term gov't debt may be at worst level of $8 tril.

•   매경(P1): 다주택 양도세 중과, 1년간 면제 추진

•   매경: 인수위, 文정부에 선전포고…"징벌적 양도세 반드시 걷어낸다"

•   매경(P1): [단독] 중기부에 차관급 자영업 전담조직

•   매경(P1): 인수위 "대우조선 알박기…감사요청할 것"

•   매경(P1): 무서운 국민연금 한마디에…KT 대표 주총 전 스스로 물러났다

•   매경: "건설노조 갑질 멈춰라"…5년만에 뒤늦게 칼 빼든 정부

•   매경: 정말 다 오르네…4월부터 가스요금 평균 1.8% 인상

•   매경: [단독] OLED도 중국에 뺏길 판…정부, 전략기술 지정 추진

•   매경: 文정부 블랙리스트 수사, 산업부가 끝이 아니다

•   한경(P1): [단독] 산업부 통상 기능, 외교부로 간다…尹 정부 조직 개편안 윤곽

•   한경: 한덕수 "총리-부총리-금융위원장, 경제 원팀 구상은 바람직"

•   서경(P1): '수출 코리아' 허상…점유율 되레 줄었다

•   서경: 시장개입·反기업 '부메랑'…중국 車수출 50% 늘때 韓 19% 뚝

•   서경: 尹 “"수출입으로 먹고사는 나라…역동적인 경제 만들겠다"

•   서경(P1): 尹 직접 대못규제 뽑는다…'산업혁신전략회의' 신설

•   서경(P1): "새정부, 일자리 창출·노동 유연화로 성장률 높여야"

•   서경: "재정 일자리는 한계…노동 규제 개혁으로 민간 고용 늘려야"

•   서경: “2주간 80시간 일하면 금요일 휴무” SK하이닉스 ‘해피 프라이데이’ 도입

•   조선(P1): [NOW] 겹쳐놓거나 냉동차에… 기막힌 코로나 죽음들

•   조선: 올해 예산 美 17% 獨 19% 佛 8% 줄였는데… 한국은 되레 늘려

•   조선: ①세금으로 만드는 공공일자리 사업부터 줄여라

•   조선: [단독] 감사원, 왜곡 논란 빚은 文정부의 통계 감사

•   조선: [WEEKLY BIZ] “너에게 날아갈게” 3년 뒤엔 현실이다

•   조선비즈: “삼바·SK바사 부럽네”… 의료⋅바이오 뛰어드는 대기업

•   조선비즈: 힘 빠진 엔저(低) 경보… 산업계 “당장은 수출 피해 제한적”

•   조선비즈: 스마트폰 충전기 뺀 애플 조롱하던 삼성, 이제 와서 “돈 내고 사”

•   조선비즈: [5G 사용자 2000만]② 美·中에 밀린 단말·장비… ‘퍼스트무버’ 외친 5G+ 제자리

•   조선비즈: “적자국채 얼마나 줄일 수 있나”…尹인수위 ‘특명’에 고심하는 기재부

•   조선비즈: 30조 들인 삼성 中 시안 2공장 본격 가동… 전 세계 낸드 10% 생산

•   인베스트조선: 현대重, 대우조선 포기했다더니 EU 소송으로 명분쌓기?…소통 없는 일방통행

•   인베스트조선: 박정호 SK스퀘어 대표의 "ARM 사고 싶다" 발언…어떻게 봐야 할까

•   중앙: 한산한 5~11세 접종 첫날…“이미 걸렸는데…” vs “맞았는데 안 아파요”

•   중앙: 포스코, 첫 재택근무 중단…기업들 고민 커졌다

•   동아: [단독]인수위 TF, 집무실 이전 예산 새로 짜는 중

•   동아: 北 SLBM도 발사 징후… 신포조선소서 이상 동향

•   동아: [단독]거리두기 ‘10인-자정’ 가닥… 3월 코로나 사망 8172명, 암 앞질러

•   한국(P1): [단독] 법무부 "임대차 3법, 전면 재검토 필요" 인수위에 업무보고

•   국민: “집짓기 말고 신사업 찾아라”… 연어까지 키우는 건설사

•   서울: [단독] ‘영끌’해서 서울 집 산 중산층… 은행 빚 갚는 데 월소득 절반 쓴다

•   세계: “지난 10년간 추경재원 196조 중 지출 구조조정 비중은 10% 불과”

•   한겨레(P1): 유류세 추가 인하할 듯…홍남기 “내달 5일 인하 폭 결정”

•   경향(P1): 기침, 가래, 피로감 등 감염 후 한 달째…당신은 ‘롱 코비드’

•   머니투데이(P1): [단독]세계 최대 '냉각수' 공장 중단···삼성·하이닉스 반도체 생산 멈추나

•   머니투데이: [단독]삼성도 투자한 양자컴퓨팅·AI...인수위, 직접 챙긴다

•   머니투데이: [단독]인수위내 '공급망' NSC 역할론 부상 "경제안보 핵심사안"

•   머니투데이: [단독]인수위, 산은 간부들 줄줄이 호출…신구 권력 또 충돌

•   머니투데이: "연료비 연동제 한다면서 실적이 왜 이래" 뿔난 한전 주주들

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 조선 빅3, 석달만에 올 수주목표 36% 달성… 흑자전환 눈앞

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]인수위, 15억초과 주택 주담대 허용 검토..‘대출봉쇄 기준선’ 상향

•   디지털타임스(P1): 오늘부터 `백신접종 완료 입국자` 격리 해제

•   디지털타임스(P1): 인수위 "2차 추경 尹정부 출범후 국회 제출할 것"

•   이데일리(P1): 편의점에서 뭘 파는지도 모르는 환경부.."일회용품 쓰지마"

•   이데일리: 한은 3년째 사상 최대 이익…'5만원권 환수율 뚝, 통안채 발행 감소 탓'

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 27만1599명 확진…어제보다 4만1497명 적어

•   위키트리: [단독] 쌍방울그룹 흑역사 ...이번에는 쌍용차 인수?

•   전자신문(P1): 반·전·차 ‘제조 빅4’ 올해 설비투자 무려 74兆

•   전자신문: 미디어텍 'AP', 퀄컴·삼성 제쳤다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Simon Johnson, Oleg Ustenko): Russia Is Finished as a Major Energy Power

•   Project Syndicate(Bertrand Badré, Benoit Mercereau): Investing for Impact and Profit

•   Project Syndicate(Ricardo Hausmann): How to Eat Russia’s Oil Lunch

•   Project Syndicate(Maurice Obstfeld): The G20 Must Speak Truth to Putin

•   Project Syndicate(Nina L. Khrushcheva): Putin's War Will Destroy Russia

•   Project Syndicate(Daniel J. Arbess): Finding Putin's Money

•   FT(Editorial Board): China’s Indo-Pacific fears show need for diplomacy

•   FT(Editorial Board): Putin’s gas ploy may rebound on Russia

•   FT(Petro Poroshenko): How the west can help Ukraine next

•   FT(Gillian Tett): Supply chain crises force corporate America into a ‘what if’ mindset

•   FT(Edward Luce): Biden, Putin and the danger of Versailles

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The end of globalisation as we know it

•   FT(John Thornhill): Industrialisation of AI offers great promise and some peril

•   FT(Simon Edelsten): Emerging markets — where to put your money with Russia at war

•   FT(Costas Milas): Higher UK rates? Not so fast.

•   WSJ(Kimberley A. Strassel): Why We Are Covid Broke

•   WSJ(David Satter): How to Break Through Putin’s Propaganda in Russia

•   WSJ(James Broughel): Cutting Red Tape Could Advance Biden’s Agenda

•   WSJ(Karen Elliott House): Biden Needs to Make Up With Saudi Arabia, or China Will Gain

•   NYT(Farhad Manjoo): It’s Scary How Dominant Apple Has Become. But How Scary?

•   NYT(Spencer Bokat-Lindell): Will the Ukraine War Spell the End of Globalization?

•   NYT(Olga Tokariuk, Tikhon Dzyadko): What Putin’s Propaganda Looks Like From Russia and Ukraine

•   NYT(Serge Schmemann): Putin ‘Just Threw Over the Chess Board,’ and Russians Feel Shame and Dismay

•   WP(Editorial Board): Biden’s release of U.S. oil reserves is the right call

•   WP(Editorial Board): Are we ready for another covid wave? Not if Congress keeps stalling.

•   WP(Editorial Board): Three scenarios for nuclear risk over Ukraine — and how NATO can respond

•   WP(E.J. Dionne Jr.): Biden’s budget reflects the challenges Democrats face

•   WP(Marc A. Thiessen): Russia can’t win in Ukraine. But Biden has no strategy for victory.

•   WP(Michael Gerson): How long will the West stay aligned against Putin?

•   WP(Fareed Zakaria): Russia is the last multinational empire, fighting to keep its colonies

•   WP(Sebastian Mallaby): The West is winning the economic battles in Putin’s war against Ukraine

•   WP(Jason Willick): Biden sends Putin a muddled nuclear message

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): Biden Budget Proposal Is Dead on Arrival But Still Revealing

•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Ukraine War Hastens Investor Migration to Private Markets

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): America’s Oil Reserve Weapon Risks Misfiring

•   Bloomberg(Tyler Cowen): How Do Interest Rates Affect the Economy? No One Really Knows

•   Bloomberg(Clive Crook): Europe Should Tax Russian Gas, Not Ban It

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Russia's Energy War of Attrition With EU Will See Which Economies Break First

•   Bloomberg(Andy Mukherjee): Russia Tries to Tempt India into Its Version of SWIFT with a Cheap Oil Deal.

•   Bloomberg(Liam Denning): Putin Would Be Crazy to Cut Off Europe’s Gas. Or Desperate.

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): War Makes It Even More Important for Poland and Hungary to Reconcile With the EU

•   Bloomberg(Therese Raphael): Ukraine War Postpones Boris Johnson Reckoning on Partygate, NHS, Cost of Living

•   Bloomberg(Bobby Ghosh): Arab-Israeli Summit Masks Stalled Progress in Mideast Diplomacy

•   Bloomberg(Tim Culpan): It Would Be Folly for China to Bust Russia Sanctions

•   Bloomberg(Mark Gilbert, Marcus Ashworth): Tackling Inflation: Zero Is a Good Destination for ECB Rates

•   CNN(Julia Chatterley): World Bank President: How we can ease food shortages

•   MarketWatch(Jurica Dujmovic): I'm putting a solar array on my home. Here's what I found out about the technology, storage and cost

•   Reuters(John Kemp): China’s cooling economy takes some heat out of commodity prices