Global Economic Monitor 220323

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street stocks, Treasury yields rise on hawkish Fed comments

※   U.S. stocks rebound, led by tech shares

※   10-year Treasury yields hit highest level since 2019

※   Oil declines after Monday’s surge

※   Gold dips, bitcoin advances

•   Japan: Yen hits six-year low against dollar as Fed signals aggressive rate rise

•   Metals: Aluminium edges lower as nickel shows signs of normalising

•   Grains: U.S. soy futures rise on strong exports; corn, wheat mixed

•   한국: 코스피, '매파 파월'에도 반등…기관 매수에 2,710대

[Indicators]

•   한국 2021년 지급결제동향 : 작년 카드결제 일평균 2.8兆…소비 회복에 16.2% 증가

•   한국 2월 PPI: 생산자물가, 2개월 연속 상승…원자재 가격 오른 영향

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukrainians Flee Mariupol as Russian Forces Push to Take Port City

※   Russian airstrikes, artillery and mortar rounds have gutted entire neighborhoods in the strategically important Ukrainian city

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Air Defense Becomes Its Surprising Trump Card Against Russia

•   WSJ: Ukraine’s Troops Fight War of Ambush and Skirmish Against Russian Invaders

•   WSJ: Lip Gloss, Potato Chips, Air Fresheners Are Among the ‘Essentials’ Still Sold in Russia

•   WSJ: Oligarch Companies Want to Pay Their Debts. But Sanctions Stand in the Way.

•   WSJ: Flood of Refugees From Ukraine War Tests Europe’s Capacity to Welcome Them

•   WSJ: Biden to Sanction Hundreds of Russian Lawmakers, U.S. Officials Say

※   Biden Administration preparing sanctions on more than 300 members of Russia’s lower chamber of parliament as soon as Thursday

•   WSJ: Fed Officials Lay Out Case for Further Rate Rises

※   The Cleveland Fed president said inflation is the No. 1 challenge for the U.S. economy; the St. Louis Fed president reiterated his view that the Fed needs to move ‘aggressively’ in raising rates

•   WSJ: U.S. Rethinks Uranium Supply for Nuclear Plants After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

•   WSJ: Omicron BA.2 Variant Represents Rising Share of U.S. Covid-19 Cases

※   Easily transmitted variant accounts for more than 50% of cases in parts of Northeast, CDC estimates

•   WSJ: Gas Prices Shoot Up at Fastest Rate on Record

•   WSJ: Russian Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny Sentenced to Nine More Years in Prison

•   WSJ: Ukraine War’s Spillover Swamps Poor Countries Still Reeling From Covid-19

•   WSJ: Clues to Covid-19’s Next Moves Come From Sewers

•   WSJ: Surveillance Risks Shape How Central Banks Test Digital Currencies

•   WSJ: How Governments Can Avoid a Debt Crisis as Rates Rise

•   WSJ: China Eastern Plane Crash Complicates Boeing’s China Relationship

•   WSJ: Evergrande Delays Results as Banks Seize $2 Billion at Unit

•   WSJ: Evergrande’s Hidden Debt Sinkhole Just Keeps Growing

•   WSJ: Pfizer, Unicef Strike Covid-19 Pill Deal

•   WSJ: Nvidia Targets Auto Growth Amid Chip Shortage

•   WSJ: Tesla Could Take Back Europe’s EV Market

•   NYT: Russia’s shrinking invasion force

•   NYT: Ukraine War and Pandemic Force Nations to Retreat From Globalization

•   NYT: As Russia Stalls in Ukraine, Dissent Brews Over Putin’s Leadership

•   NYT: China Takes a Back Seat in International Diplomacy Over Ukraine

•   NYT: Will War Make Europe’s Switch to Clean Energy Even Harder?

•   WP: Why Covax, the best hope for vaccinating the world, was doomed to fall short

•   FT: Biden steps up warnings Putin may use chemical weapons in Ukraine

•   FT: Military briefing: how the battle for Ukraine became a battle for its cities

•   FT: Russia chokes major oil pipeline in further threat to global supplies

※   Repairs to storm-damaged loading terminals could cut up to 1mn b/d of shipments through CPC network

•   FT: EU and ECB struggle to find way to ease Ukraine refugees’ cash crunch

•   FT: EU energy proposals to focus on gas storage

•   FT: Spanish PM urges EU to cut energy costs or be Putin’s ‘hostage’

•   FT: Draghi endorses Ukraine’s bid for EU membership

•   FT: US agrees to ease tariffs on UK steel and aluminium imports

※   Deal that partly reverses Trump-era trade barriers will go into effect in June

•   FT: BoE warns of staff shortages as it takes on post-Brexit powers

•   FT: Pakistan: Imran Khan and the politics of inflation

•   FT: Central banks unlikely to offer immediate support to energy markets

•   FT: Oil is becoming a weapon

•   FT: US companies forced to pay up to borrow through debt markets

•   FT: Chinese companies weigh business and politics in Russia after war

•   FT: TotalEnergies to phase out buying oil from Russia by end of year

•   Bloomberg: Biden to Unveil New Russia Sanctions, Energy Aid in Brussels

※   President Joe Biden and allies meeting Thursday in Brussels are expected to announce both new sanctions against Russia

•   Bloomberg: Ukraine Is Changing the World Order, Just Not How Putin Hoped

•   Bloomberg: Russia’s $66 Million Coupon Moves a Step Closer to Bondholders

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Threat to Sanction China Is Spooking Other Asian Nations

•   Bloomberg: Beijing Tells Chinese in Russia to Help Fill Economic Void

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Sees Fed Hiking 50 Basis Points at May and June Meetings

•   Bloomberg: El-Erian Says Cut Stock Holdings as Stagflation Concern Grows

•   Bloomberg: Recession Is Unavoidable Without Russian Oil, Dallas Fed Study Says

※   Dallas Fed: The Russian Oil Supply Shock of 2022

•   Bloomberg: Rishi Sunak Given Budget Boost as U.K. Borrowing £26 Billion Below Forecast

•   Bloomberg: More Than 80% of U.K. Factories are Planning to Increase Prices

•   Bloomberg: Diesel Shortage Is Europe’s Next Energy Shock, Trafigura Says

•   Bloomberg: Lagarde Says Cryptos Being Used to Evade Russian Sanctions

•   Bloomberg: ECB to Start Work in 2022 to Add Climate Risk to Capital Buffers

•   Bloomberg: ECB Says Climate Efforts Haven’t Been Derailed by War in Ukraine

•   Bloomberg: U.K. Says 9.7% of Its Fuel Imports in 2021 Came From Russia

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Villeroy Urges Governments to Boost EU Recovery Fund

•   Bloomberg: Trio of U.S. Allies Join Forces as War, Iran Deal Roil Mideast

•   Bloomberg: Asia May Fuel World Prices If Costs Keep Rising, IMF’s Rhee Says

•   Bloomberg: China to Push Back Monetary Easing to Next Quarter, Survey Shows

•   Bloomberg: China Is Catching Up to the U.S. When It Comes to Military Power

•   Bloomberg: India’s Steady Economic Recovery Braces for Ukraine War Risks

•   Bloomberg: India’s Coal Ministry to Seek Softer Green Rules to Boost Output

•   Bloomberg: Japan’s Power Crisis Was a Decade in Making and Won’t Go Away

•   Bloomberg: Macron and Erdogan Set Aside Differences to Press Putin Over War

•   Bloomberg: Myanmar Junta Hits Back at U.S.’s Rohingya Genocide Declaration

•   Bloomberg: Most Central Banks Seen as Behind the Curve in Global Survey

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Dollar’s Rally Likely Nearing Its Peak, Barclays Says

•   Bloomberg: Costly Gasoline Spurs Tax Cuts That May Delay Demand Destruction

•   Bloomberg: Mining Industry Joins Opposition to Brazil Indigenous Land Bill

•   Bloomberg: Smartphone Giant Xiaomi Beats Estimates After Holiday Boom

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE To counter China influence, U.S. names envoy to lead Pacific Island talks

•   Reuters: Russia's G20 membership under fire from U.S., Western allies

•   Reuters: Fauci does not expect major surge in COVID cases in U.S.

•   Reuters: Fed's Williams: potential for stablecoins to be "very useful"

•   Reuters: EU may discuss more borrowing option in a few weeks, Gentiloni says

•   Reuters: S.Africa's Ramaphosa eases COVID-19 restrictions to lift economy

•   Reuters: EU raises over 12 bln euros in debt sale as market watches for potential new borrowing

•   Reuters: Global lithium-ion battery capacity may rise five-fold by 2030 - Wood Mackenzie

•   Reuters: EV revolution driven by 'humble and hidden' auto suppliers

•   Reuters: Analysis: Climate goals take second place as EU states cut petrol prices

•   CNN: Could the Covid-19 vaccine become a yearly shot? Some experts think so

•   MarketWatch: The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to know

•   SCMP: China-Russia relations: border province calls for closer economic ties amid US criticism of ‘no-limits’ friendship

•   SCMP: US firms face ‘significant impact’ on revenue as growth slows in China, but Southeast Asia could gain

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan Diet enacts record budget of 107.60tn yen for fiscal 2022

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan's land prices see first rise in two years in COVID recovery

•   Nikkei Asia: Steel prices turn red hot for Japan builders on Russia shock

•   Nikkei Asia: Toshiba spinoff plan in peril ahead of key shareholder vote

•   Economic Times: OECD retains India’s FY24 GDP growth at 5.5%

•   Economic Times: Fitch slashes FY23 India growth forecast to 8.5 pc on high energy prices, inflation

•   매경(P1): 미래동력 C테크…2030년 9000조시장 열린다

•   매경: 1인당 탄소배출 2배 많은 한국…탄소중립 충격 선진국중 가장 커

•   매경: C테크 투자붐 '닷컴열풍' 넘어서…PEF 녹색펀드에 뭉칫돈

•   매경: 깨끗한 물 뿜는 제철소·온실가스로 빚은 술…C테크 무한진화

•   매경: 美의 80% 수준…갈길 먼 기후기술

•   매경: "탄소중립 이슈, 시야 확 넓어졌다" 전문가인터뷰 큰 관심

•   매경(P1): 네이버·카카오 나란히 인건비 1조 넘었다

•   매경: [단독] 비정규직 해법…尹 고용정책 최우선 과제로

•   매경: [세종 인사이드] 탄소중립 소외될라…환경부·탄중위 속앓이

•   매경: "코로나 부실 터진다"…충당금 3배늘린 은행

•   매경: 8인치 웨이퍼의 재발견…제2전성기 열려

•   매경: [다시 뛰는 K건설] 건설 르네상스 재도전…시련은 있어도 실패는 없다

•   한경(P1): 20대 기업 평균연봉 1억 넘었다

•   한경(P1): "3억 대출 6개월 만에 이자가…" 떨고 있는 영끌족 '어쩌나'

•   한경: [단독] "전기요금 못 올리면 16조 추가 손실"…한전 '초비상'

•   한경: 정부, 올 1주택자 보유세 '작년수준 동결' 23일 발표

•   한경: 전세대출 푸는 은행…카카오뱅크·신한·하나 1주택자 전세대출 재개

•   한경: 삼성전자 언제 '8만원' 되냐고?…○○○지표 속에 답 있다

•   한경: "중대재해 최장 징역 30년"…칼날 세운 檢

•   한경: "약 못구해 사망하기도"…'먹는 치료제' 바닥에 비상 걸렸다

•   한경: [단독] "전기요금 못 올리면 16조 추가 손실"…한전 '초비상'

•   서경(P1): GTX-B 첫삽도 안떴는데 F까지…'G퓰리즘' 논란

•   서경(P1): 또 주무부처 개편론…흔들리는 韓 통상

•   서경: 경제안보는 공급망 직결…"통상, 산업과 연계 없인 반쪽짜리"

•   서경: 통상부처 독립론…日선 '경제안보성' 신설, 韓도 통상컨트롤타워 모색

•   서경: “제조 강국은 ‘산업통상형 조직’ 운영…공급망·기술동맹 대응 등 장점 많아”

•   서경(P1): [단독] DSR 5억까지 푼다…尹 "실수요자 어떻게든 돈 갚아"

•   서경: "기업 물적분할때 주식매수청구권 부여"…與 '쪼개기 상장' 피해 막기 추진

•   조선(P1): 허망합니다, K방역

•   조선: 최장 8일까지 바이러스 배출… 마지막날엔 전파위험 적어

•   조선(P1): [NOW] “민노총 막아달라” 前 민노총 조합원들 시위

•   조선(P1): [단독] “北 도발땐 美 전략자산 출동, 한미 야외 실기동 훈련 추진”

•   조선: 자영업자, 코로나 전부터 무너졌다… 소득 0원이하 18만→22만명

•   조선: [단독] 탈원전 앞장선 탄중위, 인수위에 ‘원전 확대案’ 낸다

•   조선: 한달 평균 26GB 쓰는 한국인, 요금은 110GB 7만원 냅니다

•   조선: ‘인수위 파견’ 공정위는 찬밥, 기재부는 더운밥?

•   조선: 대통령 당선인 앞에서, 졸지에 ‘나쁜 기업’ 된 포스코

•   조선비즈: 삼성이 점찍은 로봇… 먼저 뛰어든 LG는 고군분투

•   조선비즈: [단독] 산업부, 24일 尹인수위 업무보고... 탈원전 폐기, 신재생에너지 속도조절 담는다

•   인베스트조선: '인플레에 가장 취약한 한국'...연준 불확실성 해소에도 외국인 이탈은 가속

•   중앙(P1): "코로나 실제 사망자 2배"…'非코로나 사망자' 치명적 함정

•   JTBC: [단독] 누적 확진 1천만명…인수위 "앞으로 거리두기 강화 없다"

•   동아: [단독]北, ICBM 동시도발 움직임… 순안비행장-동창리발사장에 새 시설

•   동아: [단독]산업부 “통상기능 우리가” 보고서 마련… 외교부 “다시 가져와야, 인수위에 요청”

•   동아: 쌍용차 채권단 이어 노조까지 “에디슨모터스서 인수 반대”

•   한국(P1): 尹당선인, 코로나 손실보상 2차 추경 공식화… "꼼꼼히 챙겨달라"

•   국민: [단독] 예금이자는 싸게, 대출은 비싸게… 잇속 챙긴 은행들

•   국민: OLED 빠지고 QLED 승부… 삼성TV 2022 라인업 국내 출시

•   서울: 전기차 불안한 공급망 돌파구 사활

•   세계: 2030년 온실가스 감축목표 40%로 확정

※   환경부: 탄소중립 비전과 온실가스 감축 의지 법제화, 2050 탄소중립 사회로 나아갑니다

•   세계: 봄볕 드는 채용시장… 기업 80% “코로나 이전 수준 회복”

•   한겨레: 부총재? 금통위 의장? 퇴임 앞둔 이주열 한은 총재 ‘권한대행’은 누구

•   한겨레: 3월 주총에 분노의 후폭풍… ‘쪼개기 상장’ ‘쪼개기 인수’ 반발

•   머니투데이: "1000만명 감염돼도 집단면역 어렵다…국내서 새 변이 나올 수도"

•   머니투데이: "답답해서 더 긁었다"...하루 1조원씩 비대면 결제한 한국인

•   머니투데이: 테슬라와 손잡은 獨 총리…현대차가 긴장하는 이유

•   머니투데이: 수소 개발 힘 쏟는 코오롱…계열사 역량 다 끌어 모은다

•   헤럴드경제: 현대차, 토요특근 또 멈춘다…전쟁·코로나·부품난 ‘3중고’

•   헤럴드경제: 우크라發 철강재 원가 압박 ‘제조업 초비상’

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]尹, 원전 빠진 K택소노미 손본다

•   아시아경제(P1): 외국인 엑소더스 "대형주도 외면"…삼성전자 지분율 50% 깨지나

•   디지털타임스(P1): [좀 더 들여다 봅시다] `2000원` 휘발유 넘보는 경유… 물류비 압박에 `동맥경화` 공포

•   디지털타임스: 석탄발전 딜레마… 낮추면 세수감소, 늘리면 탄소배출

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]재건축안전진단 6월 전 풀린다…면제 공약은 폐기할 듯

•   이데일리(P1): 공급망 이대로면 ‘각자도생’ 대기업도 한계 온다

•   이데일리: [단독]文정부가 키운 최저임금 갈등, 일자리 증발하니 멈췄다

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 47만5276명 확진…어제보다 14만6171명 급증

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Minxin Pei): The Ukraine War Could Trigger a Nuclear-Arms Race in Asia

•   Project Syndicate(Gordon Brown, et al.): A Tribunal for Putin's War Crimes

•   Project Syndicate(Laura Tyson, John Zysman): From Sanctions to Semiconductor Resilience and Security

•   Project Syndicate(Javier Solana): Europe Must Sharpen Its Aims

•   Project Syndicate(Michael Ignatieff): What Is the West's Objective in Ukraine?

•   Project Syndicate(Brahma Chellaney): Putin's War and the Mirage of the Rules-Based Order

•   FT(Editorial Board): Putin’s war threatens millions with hunger

•   FT(Editorial Board): The Kremlin’s assault on Navalny and the truth

•   FT(Martin Wolf): Putin’s war demands a concerted global economic response

•   FT(Janan Ganesh): The Ukraine war is not about democracy versus autocracy

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): The yield curve might be wrong

•   FT(Tatjana Puhan): US ruling on bond ETFs raises a market risk

•   FT(Michael Pooler): Petrobras becomes a political football in upcoming Brazilian elections

•   FT(Michael Posner, Dorothée Baumann-Pauly): Ethics of cobalt mining must be taken seriously by traders

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): The Rearming of Europe

•   WSJ(William A. Galston): Ukraine War Brings a Bloody End to Three Decades of Peace

•   WSJ(David C. Gompert): How Putin Exploits America’s Fear of Nuclear War

•   WSJ(John Kennedy): No More IMF Subsidies for Dictators

•   WSJ(Reuel Marc Gerecht, Ray Takeyh): The Folly of the ‘Pivot to Asia’

•   NYT(Daniel Yergin): Daniel Yergin Thinks Russia’s Days as an Energy Superpower Might Be Over

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): America’s Economy in the European Mirror

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Odessa and the Ukraine That Should Have Been

•   NYT(Tom Frieden): The Next Covid Wave Is Probably Already on Its Way

•   NYT(Jane Burbank): The Grand Theory Driving Putin to War

•   WP(Catherine Rampell): Both parties neglect to propose a solution that might actually lower gas prices

•   WP(Max Boot): Russian tanks are taking a beating. Do they still have a place on the modern battlefield?

•   WP(Josh Rogin): Putin has been a war criminal for years. Nobody cared until now.

•   WP(Charles Lane): Putin says everything is going according to plan. He might not be lying.

•   Bloomberg(Mohamed A. El-Erian): Markets Are Pushing Fed Into Developing-Economy Territory

•   Bloomberg(Niall Ferguson): Putin Misunderstands History. So, Unfortunately, Does the U.S.

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Now That Powell Has Convinced Markets He Means It

•   Bloomberg(Matt Levine): The SEC Will Regulate Climate

•   Bloomberg(Richard Cookson): Central Bank Predictability and Sloth Have Their Costs

•   Bloomberg(Marc Rubinstein): Commodities Clearing Houses Have Become Too Big to Ignore

•   Bloomberg(Javier Blas): Steel Is the Other Big Commodity Shock from the War in Ukraine

•   CNN(Gina Cummings): The federal minimum wage hasn't risen in almost 13 years and US workers are paying the price

•   Fox News(Brandon Judd): Ukraine war, US border crisis: Biden's COVID rules change would make bad situation worse

•   Fox Business(Rand Paul , Kevin Roberts): How Washington can end the inflation crisis it created