Global Economic Monitor 220324

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street pulls back on stocks, Treasury yields dip

※   U.S. stock indexes drop more than 1%

※   Oil rises up more than 5% on continued Ukraine conflict

※   U.S. Treasury yields dip after big gains earlier in month

•   Russia: Russian Stock Market to Partially Reopen on Thursday

•   Natural gas: European Energy Prices Soar as Russia Seeks Rubles for Its Gas

•   Metals: Nickel jumps, zinc climbs on worries over supplies, energy

•   Grains: CBOT soybeans close in on one-month high on export hopes

•   한국: 코스피 이틀째 올라 2,730대 회복…기관 순매수

[Indicators]

•   US Feb. New home sales: U.S. New-Home Sales Declined in February for a Second Month

•   US Weekly Mortgage rates·applications: Mortgage refinance demand plunges 14%, as interest rates spike higher

•   Eurozone Mar. Consumer confidence: Euro zone consumer confidence falls to -18.7 in March

•   UK Feb. CPI·PPI: UK inflation accelerates to 30-year high of 6.2%

•   India 2021 FDI: FDI inflow to India declines to $74.01 billion in 2021

•   한국 2021년 FDI: 지난해 해외직접투자 759억弗 '역대 최대'

•   한국 1월 인구동향: 출생아 또 역대 최저… 27개월째 인구 감소

•   한국 2월 기업 직접금융 조달실적: 지난달 주식 발행 87% ‘뚝’…LG엔솔 IPO 기저효과 탓

[News]

•   WSJ: NATO Estimates Steep Russian Losses in Ukraine as Biden Arrives in Europe

※   Russia may have lost up to one-fifth of its combat force in Ukraine, alliance officials say

•   WSJ: U.S. Accuses Russia of War Crimes in Ukraine

※   Move will formalize investigations into alleged atrocities by Russian forces

•   WSJ: Ukrainian President Asked Biden Not to Sanction Abramovich, to Facilitate Peace Talks

•   WSJ: Russia’s Oil-and-Gas Industry Is Starting to Feel the Bite of Sanctions

•   WSJ: Vladimir Putin Wants Europe to Pay for Gas in Rubles

•   WSJ: Weapons for Ukraine’s Fight Against Russia Flow Through Small Polish Border Towns

•   WSJ: U.S. Renews Tariff Exemptions for Some Chinese Imports

※   Biden administration renews tariff waivers for 352 items after previous exemptions expired

•   WSJ: The Odds Don’t Favor the Fed’s Soft Landing

•   WSJ: Powell Flags Risks of New Digital Financial Products

•   WSJ: Will the Fed Sink Emerging Markets (Again)?

•   WSJ: Oil Price Rise ‘Trickles Down to Everything,’ Even Your Potato Salad to Go

•   WSJ: Moderna’s Covid-19 Vaccine Works Safely in Young Children, Company Says

※   The shot generated strong immune responses in children 6 months to 5 years, says Moderna, which plans to seek authorization for use

•   WSJ: Many Businesses Are Quitting Russia. Big French Firms Are Staying Put.

•   WSJ: Amazon Union Vote Set to Begin in New York, Which Has Challenged Company in Past

•   WSJ: Steel Giant Set to Be First Major Russian Debt Default of Ukraine War

•   WSJ: Nvidia’s Trillion Dollar Dreams

•   NYT: Janet Yellen will discuss sanctions on Russian gold with lawmakers.

•   NYT: Germany’s leader says a boycott of Russian energy would imperil ‘hundreds of thousands of jobs.’

•   NYT: Germany Is Ready to Lead Militarily. Its Military Is Not.

•   NYT: Trying to Solve a Covid Mystery: Africa’s Low Death Rates

•   WP: Putin plans to attend G-20 summit despite calls to exclude him

•   WP: How Putin is weaponizing ‘traditional values’ to defend Russian aggression in Ukraine

•   WP: China expected robust economic growth in 2022. It’s not looking good.

•   FT: Top Kremlin official Anatoly Chubais quits as Putin’s climate envoy

※   Adviser is highest-ranking government figure to resign since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

•   FT: Major Russian pipeline fully halts oil exports, sending crude prices higher

•   FT: Biden heads for Europe with mission to maintain west’s unity in response to Russia

•   FT: Scientists debate fourth Covid vaccine dose as Omicron cases rise

•   FT: EU warned to avoid fight for gas deals in rush to replace Russian supplies

•   FT: EU floats joint gas purchasing as way out of crisis

•   FT: ‘Now what?’ German village looks to a future without Nord Stream 2

•   FT: Sunak banks public finances windfall for pre-election tax cut

•   FT: Tax cut a sign of Sunak’s grim political and economic situation

•   FT: Chancellor provides minimal help to households on cost of living crisis

•   FT: Boris Johnson to back more UK onshore wind farms to boost energy security

•   FT: Evergrande bondholders threaten to sue after being blindsided by $2bn claim

•   FT: Egypt asks for IMF support to help it weather Ukraine crisis

•   FT: Bond markets in historic downturn as central banks battle inflation

•   FT: BP to unveil £1bn boost for UK’s electric car charging points

•   Bloomberg: EU Looks to Tighten Russia Sanctions Without Touching Energy

•   Bloomberg: Euro Region Faces War Fallout Cost of 2% of GDP, UBS Estimates

※   That comprises supplementary expenditure of 1.5% of gross domestic product in 2022 and another 0.5% in the following 12 months

•   Bloomberg: Russia Central Banker Wanted Out Over Ukraine, Putin Said No

•   Bloomberg: Ukraine Wants ‘Iran-style’ Sanctions on Russian Energy

•   Bloomberg: Inflation Wildfire Consuming Russia Spreads to More Basic Goods

•   Bloomberg: Fed Officials Take Aim at Inflation, Say Ready to Act With Vigor

•   Bloomberg: Daly Sees Possible Need for Half-Point Fed Rate Hike in May

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Mester Sees Need for Some Half-Point Rate Hikes This Year

•   Bloomberg: China Gets a Warning With U.S.-U.K. Tariff Deal, Raimondo Says

•   Bloomberg: The ‘Great Retirement’ Disconnect That Puzzles U.S. Economists

•   Bloomberg: Sanctions Pushing Russia Towards Economic Catastrophe, U.K. Says

•   Bloomberg: EU Loosens Aid Shackles in Bid to Mitigate War’s Hit to Economy

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Visco Doesn’t See ‘Excessive’ Wage Increases in Europe

•   Bloomberg: ECB to Start Work in 2022 to Add Climate Risk to Capital Bar

•   Bloomberg: U.K.’s Lockdown Anniversary Marked by Another Virus Surge

•   Bloomberg: U.K. Says Treasury Will Fund BOE Losses on QE for First Time

•   Bloomberg: Germany’s Top Risk From War Is Firms Severing Russia Ties: Chart

•   Bloomberg: Europe Hit by Covid Wave After ‘Brutally’ Easing Curbs, WHO Says

•   Bloomberg: Global Oil Demand Threatened by China’s Tight Covid Lockdowns

•   Bloomberg: China’s Consumers Face Deeper Economic Damage From Covid Lockdowns

•   Bloomberg: Lockdowns and Inspections Disrupt China’s Plans to Ramp Up Coal

•   Bloomberg: China’s New Energy Plan Targets a Bigger and More Flexible Grid

•   Bloomberg: This Is Now The Worst Drawdown on Record for Global Fixed Income

•   Bloomberg: Volatility Returns in Muni Market’s Worst Quarter Since 1994

•   Bloomberg: Yuan at a Crossroads as Covid Outbreak Threatens Growth

•   Bloomberg: A Perfect Storm Is Brewing for Low Income Economies, Tooze Says

•   Bloomberg: China Faces Worst Crop Conditions Ever Due to Climate Change

•   Bloomberg: Shale drillers avoiding big oil-supply boost partly on political concerns

•   Bloomberg: Tencent Declares ‘Reckless’ Era for Tech Is Over as Growth Tanks

•   Bloomberg: Nvidia CEO to Look at Intel for Foundry, Says Shift Will Be Hard

•   Bloomberg: Africa Needs Off-Grid Support to Avoid 30 Million Losing Access

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Fossil-Fuel Companies Tie Borrowings to Climate Targets

•   Bloomberg: Tesla (TSLA) Will Have a Leg Up Making Electric Cars for Years to Come

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: Hong Kong’s Completely Avoidable Covid Catastrophe

•   Reuters: Russian move on Ukraine aid fails at U.N. Security Council

•   Reuters: Biden cites a "real threat" of Russians using chemical weapons in Ukraine

•   Reuters: U.S., Europe to address energy issues on Friday -White House

•   Reuters: Bullard: High inflation means Fed must think bigger, faster

•   Reuters: Ifo slashes German growth forecast for 2022 due to Ukraine war

•   Reuters: AstraZeneca's preventative COVID shot set to win EU clearance this week-sources

•   Reuters: Iran's Revolutionary Guards tout missile prowess at Doha exhibition

•   Reuters: Saudi-led coalition foils Houthi attack on oil tankers -Saudi state TV

•   Reuters: Analysis: Options mavens see stock rebound as chance to pick up downside protection

•   Reuters: Analysis: Ukraine crisis could derail drive to limit U.S. defense spending

•   CNBC: Omicron BA.2 subvariant will soon dominate in U.S., but Fauci doesn’t expect another surge

•   CNBC: Omicron’s ‘stealth’ subvariant BA.2 could go ‘wild’ in Europe before going global, top epidemiologist says

•   SCMP: China aims to expand nuclear power programme amid threat of global energy crisis following Ukraine invasion

•   SCMP: China-Australia relations: Ukraine war clouds efforts to repair trade ties after PM Morrison warns Beijing of sanctions

•   SCMP: China, US urged to improve agricultural ‘bright spot’ to ‘inject new impetus’ in Beijing, Washington relations

•   SCMP: China energy blueprint pushes independence as ‘opportunities’ with Russia grow

•   Global Times: Eight earthquakes hit Taiwan, ‘unlikely to trigger tsunamis or other severe secondary disasters’

•   Caixin: In Depth: The Growing Difficulty of Balancing China’s Local Government Budgets

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan lifts power supply warning for Tokyo area on Wednesday

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan asks how low can the yen go, and will it hurt

•   Nikkei Asia: Taiwan chipmaker Winbond sees 'long-term' impact from Ukraine war

•   Nikkei Asia: Analysis: Xi's pro-Russia stance rooted in fear of Gorbachev model

•   Nikkei Asia: Unfinished business: Indonesia's Jokowi still has lots to do

•   매경(P1): 韓美 C테크 동맹, 새 정부 필수 과제다

•   매경(P1): "韓, 기후위기 대응 최적의 동맹국…매경보고대회 C테크 논의 생산적"

•   매경: '탈탄소' 상용화 기술 만들면…정부가 무조건 먼저 사라

•   매경: 개도국 C테크 시장 43조달러…"韓소재 국제기구를 우군으로"

•   매경: 원전없인 탄소중립도 없어…SMR 연간 20기 양산체제 구축을

•   매경(P1): 文, 신임 韓銀 총재 이창용 지명

•   매경: "부채규모 과다"…한은 새 선장, 긴축 속도전 예고

•   매경(P1): 보유세 30% 늘어…정권말까지 稅폭탄

※   기재부: 제40차 부동산시장 점검 관계장관회의 개최

•   매경: 文 "부동산 자신있다" 장담했지만…5년간 서울 공시가 2배 껑충

•   매경: "다주택자에 다른 가격기준 적용…조세형평성 흔들"

•   매경: "지방선거도 부동산 선거"…민주당, 국힘 모두 "1주택자 세금 더 감면"

•   매경: [단독] '文정부 미스터 쓴소리' 심교언 교수, 부동산TF 이끈다

•   매경: 엔화당 원화값 세자릿수 눈앞…"수출경쟁 밀릴라" 韓기업 긴장

•   매경: [단독] 산업부, 尹에 원전 수명연장 보고…'원전 회귀' 신호탄

•   매경: 해외선 'K배터리' 공장 신·증설…한국만 열외

•   매경: 세계는 자원전쟁…韓해외투자는 10분의 1로 뚝

•   매경: "새 정부서도 ESG 중시 정책은 계속된다"

•   매경: 박용만 前회장 두산지분 모두 판다

•   매경: [이젠 선진국이다] 국민소득 5만달러, 기업이 이끈다

•   한경(P1): 소상공인 대출 상환 6개월 더 연장

•   한경: 133조원 소상공인 대출 한숨 돌렸지만…'부실화 위험' 더 커졌다

•   한경: 인수위 "국민 항체보유 조사" 밝혔지만…허가받은 중화항체 키트 '0'

•   한경: 경영 시계제로…기업 '비상 현금' 역대최대

•   한경: "정부 긴급대책 마련하라"…휘발유 앞지른 경유값에 '쇼크'

•   서경: CPTPP 몸값 뛰는데…4월도 가입신청 어렵다

•   서경: 수출기업 87% "통상 기능, 산업부에 존치해야"

•   서경: BOE, 점유율 22% '껑충'…삼성·LG 아성 위협

•   서경: [사이언스] 먹거리에서 지구 온실가스 31% 나온다

•   조선(P1): “대북 강경 아니다… 기후변화·재해 등 그린데탕트 추진”

•   조선: 평균 연봉 1억 넘는 기업은 24곳… 카카오 1억7200만원 1위

•   조선: 문어, 사람 얼굴도 알아본다… 똑똑함의 비밀은 ‘마이크로RNA’

•   조선: 50년 만에 인류를 달에 보낼 로켓, 드디어 발사대에 섰다

•   조선: 돼지가 꿀꿀대는 소리… AI는 무슨 뜻인지 안다

•   조선비즈: 추경 50兆 하려니 스태그플레이션 부담이…尹노믹스, 딜레마 빠지나

•   조선비즈: 최태원 대한상의 회장 “신기업가 정신 사업 확대해야”

•   조선비즈: 두산중공업, 해외 자회사 두산밥콕 매각 추진

•   조선비즈: 삼성, 작년 LG 스마트폰 점유율 모두 흡수…최다 판매 모델은 갤럭시S21

•   조선비즈: “재택근무 확산됐지만”… 직장인 10명 중 4명은 ‘오피스 출근’ 선호

•   조선비즈: 일감 없는 한국GM 부평 2공장 문 닫나… 후반 근무 없앨듯

•   조선비즈: 전쟁에 러시아산 목재 가격도 폭등… 가구·인테리어업자들은 1년치 사재기 나서

•   조선비즈: “외국인 ‘부동산 쇼핑’ 끝났나”… 건축물·토지 거래 3년 만에 최저

•   조선비즈: [단독] GS칼텍스·한국가스公, 수소 합작사 설립… 택시·트럭 리스도 검토

•   인베스트조선: 외생 변수에 자산 배치 고심 중인 기관투자가들

•   인베스트조선: 최대 적자에도 전기요금 인상은 요원…새 정부서도 한전 전망은 '흐림'

•   인베스트조선: 文 정부에선 라임·뉴딜만 보였는데...尹 정부의 금융시장 활용법은?

•   인베스트조선: 격변기 맞은 4대그룹…어수선한 '삼성·현대차' 격랑 대비해야 하는 'SK·LG'

•   동아(P1): 오세훈 “尹 집무실 이전, 용산 개발 영향 없을것”

•   동아(P1): 60세 이상 - 면역저하자 신속항원검사로 확진땐 내일부터 셀프 재택치료

•   동아: ‘주 72시간’ 베트남, 韓관리자는 ‘52시간’에 묶여… 공사 스톱 일쑤

•   한국(P1): "꺾이는 줄 알았는데..." 오미크론 정점, 스텔스로 미뤄지나

•   세계(P1): 코로나 먹는 치료약 ‘라게브리오’ 긴급승인

•   세계: “OLED냐 QLED냐”… LG·삼성, 양보 없는 TV대전

•   머니투데이: [단독]인수위, 中 꺾은 韓 디스플레이 지원 검토

•   머니투데이: 체코만 7번째…정재훈 한수원 사장, 현지서 원전수주 '총력'

•   머니투데이: [단독] 삼성전자 온실가스 감축 종합 목표, 처음 내놓는다

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 美 철강관세 전면 재협상 대신 韓, 쿼터이월 등 세부요건 개선

•   헤럴드경제: 토종 무인드론·로봇 무장 가속…‘제2의 원자력 르네상스’ 이끈다

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): 카플레이션'… 현대차 가격 1년새 13.8% 올랐다 [카플레이션 본격화]

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]정부, 탄소세 도입 무기한 '보류'…24일 尹인수위 보고

•   아시아경제(P1): [단독]인수위 "2차 추경 국채발행 없다"

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 38만277명 확진…어제보다 9만4999명 적어

•   연합: "작년 판매된 세계 프리미엄 스마트폰 60%가 아이폰"

•   전자신문(P1): '2050 탄소중립위원회' 물갈이 불가피…산업·에너지 무게

•   전자신문: 반도체 수급난 지속...“올해 세계 車 생산 차질 188만대 예상”

•   전자신문: 정철동 "LG이노텍, FC-BGA 추가 투자...올해 사업도 긍정적"

•   전자신문: "올 반도체 장비 투자액 1000억달러 돌파" SEMI, 사상 최대 전망

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Maciej Kisilowski): Does the West Need Autocrats to Fight Putin?

•   Project Syndicate(Oscar Arias): Negotiating With Putin Is the Only Way Forward

•   Project Syndicate(Harold James, Markus Brunnermeier, Jean-Pierre Landau): Europe's Moral Obligation to Boycott Russian Energy

•   Project Syndicate(Lukasz Rachel, Moritz Schularick): Forward Guidance for Sanctions on Russian Energy

•   Project Syndicate(Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala): The World Must Avoid Another Food Crisis

•   FT(Editorial Board): US climate rules are good for business

•   FT(Editorial Board): A very political Spring Statement

•   FT(Martin Wolf): Sunak fails to address the hit to living standards

•   FT(David Gardner): Iran’s enemies in the Middle East are closing ranks

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Hearing out the China bulls

•   FT(Peggy Hollinger): Foreign businesses in China need to heed the lessons of Russian exodus

•   FT(Brooke Masters): Why ‘shrinkflation’ means you are paying the same for less

•   FT(Alan Beattie): Global food crisis is the prisoners’ dilemma of trade

•   FT(William Rhodes, John Lipsky ): Act now to prevent a new sovereign debt crisis in the developing world

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): A Chinese Nickel Market Mystery

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Putin Uses Refugees as a Weapon

•   WSJ(Maxwell Tardif, et al.): Is Nuclear Power the Future?

•   WSJ(Eugene Kontorovich, Anastasia Lin): Covid Lockdowns Were a Chinese Import

•   NYT(Thomas L. Friedman): Xi, Putin and Trump: The Strongmen Follies

•   NYT(Peter Coy): A Low Birthrate Was Supposed to Weaken Russia. What Happened?

•   NYT(Bret Stephens): A New Iran Deal Leaves Us Meeker and Weaker

•   NYT(Spencer Bokat-Lindell): How Will the Ukraine War End?

•   NYT(Madeleine Albright): Putin Is Making a Historic Mistake

•   WP(Henry Olsen): Biden is right to remove tariffs on British metals but should keep other tariffs in place

•   WP(Daniel W. Drezner): How much more can the war in Ukraine escalate?

•   WP(Yong Kwon): Most Americans want to raise taxes on the wealthy. Why is it so hard to accomplish?

•   WP(Adam Waytz): Having Putin as a ‘common enemy’ won’t unite Americans

•   Bloomberg(Editorial Board): A Stronger U.S. Alliance With the European Union Calls for Trade, Not Tariffs

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): Only the U.S. Turns Gas Prices Into a Political Timebomb

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Fright in Bond Markets Feels Like 2007 Crisis Made Worse by Rising Inflation

•   Bloomberg(Marcus Ashworth): The Fed Isn’t at the Mercy of the Yield Curve

•   Bloomberg(Shuli Ren): An Intriguing Safe Haven in the Middle of War and Pandemic

•   Bloomberg(Jared Dillian): Consumer Despair Is Probably Worse Than We Realize

•   Bloomberg(Andreas Kluth): Putin's Nuclear Options Come From the Scary and Unpredictable Age Before MAD

•   Bloomberg(Clara Ferreira Marques): China’s Ukrainian Juggling Act Isn’t Over

•   Bloomberg(Paul J. Davies): Ukraine War: Russia Exploits Two Big Holes in Financial Sanctions

•   Bloomberg(Andrea Felsted, Tae Kim): Food-Delivery Services Will Struggle to Outrun Inflation

•   Bloomberg(Jonathan Levin): Heard of the ‘Fed Put’? Powell May Be Selling Calls

•   CNN(Asa Hutchinson, Phil Murphy): 2 state governors weigh in on how to boost America's chip supply and lower prices

•   MarketWatch(Peter Morici): The six tragic errors the U.S. made that permitted Russia’s war on Ukraine

•   Fox News(Michael McCaul): What Biden must do about the Russia-Ukraine war now