Global Economic Monitor 220330

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Shares rally, oil drops after 'encouraging' Russia-Ukraine talks

※   Shares head higher as Russia and Ukraine talk in Turkey

※   Bond markets continue to flag recession fears

※   German and French consumer confidence drops

※   Yen tries to steady, but heading for worst month since 2016

※   Russia signals it will default, by paying $ bond in roubles

•   Metals: Aluminium falls as Russia pledges to cut military activity in Ukraine

•   Grains: Wheat, corn fall as Ukraine-Russia talks boost ceasefire hopes

•   한국: 코스피, 우크라 협상 기대감에 2,740대 회복…기관 순매수

•   한국: 국채금리 급등세 진정…10·20년물 2%대 복귀

[Indicators]

•   US Jan. Job openings: Job Openings Ease Slightly From Record Highs

※   WSJ: It Will Take a While for Hiring to Get Ground Down

•   US Jan. Case–Shiller home price: Home-Price Growth Accelerated in January

•   US Mar. Consumer confidence: U.S. Consumer Confidence Rebounds Slightly on Firm Job Market

•   Japan Feb. Employment: Japan's Feb. jobless rate falls as job seekers stay on sidelines

•   Argentina Jan. Economic activity: Argentina’s Economy Shrank in January After Strong Finish to 2021

•   한국 4월 BSI 전망치(전경련): "4월 기업경기 전망 다시 '부정적'…러 우크라 침공사태 영향"

[News]

•   WSJ: Ukraine Proposes Neutral Status With Guarantees, and Zelensky Seeks More Western Help

※   Cease-fire talks advanced as deadly Russian strikes continued and Ukrainian forces pushed back Moscow’s troops near Kyiv

•   WSJ: Roman Abramovich Makes Public Debut in Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks

•   WSJ: Russia Built Parallel Payments System That Escaped Western Sanctions

•   WSJ: U.S. Targets Oligarchs’ Hidden Assets, Russian Military Supply Lines

•   WSJ: European Countries Expel Dozens of Russian Officials

•   WSJ: Biden’s Budget Would Reshape His International Tax Plan to Match Global Deal

•   WSJ: Second Covid-19 Booster Shot Endorsed by FDA, CDC for Adults 50 and Older

•   WSJ: Omicron BA.2 Variant Is Dominant Covid-19 Strain in U.S., CDC Estimates

•   WSJ: Fed’s Harker Worried About High Inflation, Open to Big Rate Increases

•   WSJ: Saudis, U.A.E. Rebuff Calls to Sever Russian Oil Alliance

•   WSJ: As Trade With Russia Halts, Countries Turn to Canada

•   WSJ: Dollar’s Strength Defied in Latin America

•   WSJ: Mortgage Firms’ Antidote to Rising Rates

•   WSJ: Inflation, Shortages Push Americans to Switch Brands More Than Ever

•   WSJ: Business, Highway Lobbies Fight Gas-Tax Holidays

•   NYT: A Brutal Russian Playbook Reapplied in Ukraine

•   NYT: Peace Talks May Be Little More Than Russian Tactics, Analysts Say

•   NYT: The War Is Reshaping How Europe Spends

•   NYT: Germany, urged to ‘stop Putin’s war machine,’ resists embargo on Russian energy

•   WP: In India, a U.S. partner, Modi’s base is inundated with anti-U.S. commentary on Ukraine

•   WP: Ukraine invasion could spell end to Russian hopes for Sputnik vaccine

•   FT: EU and Russia in stand-off over rouble payments for gas

※   Failure to revise supply contracts could halt the flow of fuel to Europe

•   FT: ‘Don’t confuse patriotism and Nazism’: Ukraine’s Azov forces face scrutiny

•   FT: Can US natural gas relieve Europe from Russian supply dependency?

•   FT: UK explores fourth delay to imposing checks on EU imports

•   FT: UK house prices to continue to outpace inflation, says Bellway

•   FT: How did the most serious legal case against Donald Trump unravel?

•   FT: Corporate US broadens pay rises in face of galloping inflation

•   FT: US environment agency chief defends push for greater oil supply

•   FT: Ukraine war will increase poverty in developing economies, warns World Bank

•   FT: Taiwan’s leader to emulate Zelensky in case of China conflict

•   FT: Spain approves ‘shock plan’ to limit economic fallout from Ukraine war

•   FT: Bolsonaro and Lula eye running mates for Brazil election

•   FT: Bolsonaro to replace Petrobras chief as fuel prices soar

•   Bloomberg: Biden on Possible Russian Pullback: 'We'll See'

•   Bloomberg: Global Supply Lines Brace for ‘Menacing’ Economic Storm to Widen

•   Bloomberg: Inflation Named as Top U.S. Problem by Most Americans Since 1985

•   Bloomberg: Fed Pivots Toward Jumbo Hikes After Being Slammed as Too Slow

•   Bloomberg: Fed Nominee Lisa Cook a Step Closer to Senate Confirmation

•   Bloomberg: What the Two- and 10-Year Inversion Signals for Economy

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Holzmann Eyes Two Hikes This Year to Boost Policy Room

•   Bloomberg: ECB Should Hike Now, Former Bundesbank Chief Weber Says

•   Bloomberg: Italy’s Factories Feel the Economic Shocks of Ukraine War

•   Bloomberg: Goldman Sees Ukraine as Turning Point for European Energy

•   Bloomberg: China Lockdowns Cost at Least $46 Billion a Month, Academic Says

※   CUHK economist says impact could double with stricter controls

•   Bloomberg: China Is Systemic Rival Threatening German Economy, Lindner Says

•   Bloomberg: China Shadow Banks Snap Up Property to Rescue Own Investments

•   Bloomberg: China Crackdowns Shrink Private Sector’s Slice of Big Business

•   Bloomberg: Xi Battles Distrust by Global Investors Burned in China Before

•   Bloomberg: China Corporate Borrowing Slumps as Rates Spike, Beige Book Says

•   Bloomberg: Vietnam Sees GDP Growth Accelerating on Vaccines, Manufacturing

•   Bloomberg: BofA Warns Stock Surge Is Bear-Market Trap With Curve Inverted

•   Bloomberg: Japan Faces Down Market Testing Limits of Yield Curve Control

•   Bloomberg: Saudis May Hike Oil Price to Record as War Reroutes Flows

•   Bloomberg: Micron (MU) Earnings Give Rosy Forecast in Sign of Strong Data-Center Demand

•   Reuters: U.S. official warns any Russian troop movement 'not a withdrawal'

•   Reuters: In villages near Kyiv, how Ukraine has kept Russia's army at bay

•   Reuters: Russia says it has fully paid $102 million coupon on 2035 Eurobond

•   Reuters: IAEA chief makes unannounced visit to Ukraine to launch safety assistance

•   Reuters: U.S. to consider tariffs on solar panels made in Southeast Asia

•   Reuters: EXCLUSIVE ECB ready to set up money exchange for Ukrainian refugees with EU guarantee

•   Reuters: Explainer: Why are Shanghai's COVID infections nearly all asymptomatic?

•   Reuters: Analysis: U.S. Treasuries yield curve flashes red to investors

•   Reuters: Analysis: As sanctions 'weaponize' U.S. dollar, some Treasury buyers could fall back

•   AP: EXPLAINER: What would paying for natural gas in rubles mean?

•   CNN: Why high inflation can become a self-fulfilling prophecy

•   CNBC: The invasion of Ukraine has serious, unintended consequences for Russia. Here are just 5 of them

•   CNBC: Russia’s invasion has made energy security a hot topic. The U.S. thinks hydrogen could be the answer

•   CNBC: Saudi energy minister says oil alliance OPEC+ will leave politics out of output decisions

•   CNBC: UAE energy minister warns of poverty and economic stagnation if energy affordability isn’t tackled

•   MarketWatch: S&P 500 exits correction: Here’s what history says happens next to U.S. stock-market benchmark

•   SCMP: China asks German businesses to help it get in good with the European Union

•   SCMP: Ukraine war: US spells out sanctions on Russia, heaping more pressure on China to comply

•   Caixin: China Doles Out Support for Businesses Amid Worst Covid Outbreak Since 2020

•   Nikkei Asia: Yen at risk of downward spiral fueled by trade deficit, BOJ easing

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan, U.S. to communicate closely on forex issues after yen slides

•   Nikkei Asia: Kishida tells ministers to craft economic package as prices soar

•   매경(P1): [단독] 사라진 '뉴딜'…올 예산안에 28번, 내년 0번

※   기재부: 2023년도 예산안 편성지침 및 기금운용계획안 작성지침

•   매경: 尹정부 고강도 '재정 구조조정'…성과 낮은 정책예산 50% 삭감

•   매경: 올해 세금 감면 59조 사상최대라지만…

•   매경: "국채찍어 돈 풀어봤자 경기부양 효과 작아"

•   매경(P1): [단독] 文이 직접 챙겼던 일자리위원회, 결국 폐지 검토

•   매경: 7월 역대급 전세대란 온다…인수위가 내건 해결책은

•   매경: 주담대 금리 6% 돌파…"대출 풀리면 뭐하나" 대출 대기자 패닉

•   매경: 불거진 불통 논란…尹인수위 약점 3가지

•   매경: [단독] 尹 '구글 정부' 구상…행안부 아닌 과기부가 맡는다

•   매경: [단독] 국가 부채는 매년 치솟는데 재정전망은 5년마다 하라니

•   매경: 이창용 "물가·경기 파장 가늠하기 어려운 상황"

•   한경(P1): 문 대통령-윤석열 대통령 당선인, 이번엔 전기료 인상 떠넘기기

•   한경: 생색내는 건 "내가" 껄끄러운 건 "네가"…文-尹 기싸움

•   한경: 엔화 가치, 6년여 만에 최저치 추락…한국 수출기업 '비상'

•   한경: "쌀 때 사두자"…'0%대 이자율'에도 사상 최대 규모로 불었다

•   한경: 추경 35조냐, 20조 안팎이냐…인수위·기재부 세부조율 주목

•   한경: [단독] '尹 지역 SOC 공약' 구조조정 착수…"효율성 떨어지면 과감히 배제"

•   한경: [단독] 美 '통상조직 외교부 이관'에 사실상 반대

•   한경: 서울 부동산 '거래절벽 쇼크'…통계후 첫 月거래액 1000건 밑돌아

•   한경: "퇴직공무원 10명 중 8명 민간·공기업行"

•   한경: "삼성도 훌륭하지만…" 엔비디아, 결국 TSMC 선택한 이유 [실리콘밸리 나우]

•   서경(P1): [단독] 대기업 반도체 세액공제 6%서 20%로 확 늘린다

•   서경: [단독] 尹 인수위 "반도체 컨틴전시플랜 가동"…정부 등업은 인텔·TSMC에 맞선다

•   서경: 美·EU, 입법 통해 123조 쏟는데…韓은 반도체특별법 '생색'만

•   서경(P1): 기업 없이 國富 없다…'야성적 충동' 일깨워라

•   서경: 미래차 매년 4600명 필요한데 일손 1100명…이대론 인재 다 떠날판

•   서경: "투자비용 부족…2030 온실가스 40% 감축은 비현실적"

•   서경: 중대재해법·3%룰…멈춰서는 경영 시계

•   서경: 韓 자율주행 기술 20위권내 '0'…데이터 규제 확 풀어야

•   서경: '그린 수소'만으로는 미래 수요 충당 못해…'퍼플·블루'도 육성을

•   서경: [단독]여가부·교육부 이어…중기부도 대수술 위기

•   서경: ‘상하이 봉쇄’ 장기화 땐 韓 진출 기업 부품·물류 대란 우려

•   서경: 자율조정 난항…대기업 중고차 진출 삐걱

•   조선: 11년만에 최고 물가 예고… 새 정부 경제정책 ‘빨간불’

•   조선: 발전4社 사장 사퇴 종용 의혹받는 산업부 국장… 靑의 원전 폐쇄 무리수엔 “못해먹겠다” 반발

•   조선: 사장 연봉이 직원 평균의 190배인 회사… 이유 봤더니

•   조선: “文정부 고용률 높인 유일한 우군은 저출산”

•   조선: 상의·경총에 전경련도 합세… “우리가 경제계 맏형”

•   조선비즈: 한은 “30% 뛴 건설자재…건설경기 회복 제약”

•   조선비즈: 韓, 제철소·발전소서 포집한 이산화탄소 수출한다

•   조선비즈: 올해 중·대형 아파트 입주 비중 역대 최저…전체 물량의 6%

•   조선비즈: OLED TV 인기에 패널 증설 고심하는 LGD·삼성D… “대규모 투자 부담”

•   조선비즈: “세계 에너지 시장 흐름 못 읽은 푸틴, 22년 경제성과 물거품”

•   인베스트조선: 상속세發 블록딜 마무리한 삼성家…그룹 주가는 계열사별 '제각각'

•   중앙(P1): [단독]여성가족부→미래가족부…총리 '경제 중심 5인' 검토

•   중앙: ‘상장폐지’ 외통수 몰린 쌍용차

•   중앙: ‘ESG 공동펀드 만들자’ 통신3사 뭉친 이유

•   중앙: 두번 접는 폴더블폰, 돌돌 마는 롤러블폰 나오나

•   동아(P1): [단독]월세 비중 40% 넘어… 인상률은 전세의 3배

•   동아(P1): [단독]한덕수-김한길 등 3명, 총리후보 압축… 安 “총리 안 할것”

•   동아: 120조 반도체단지, 모호한 법령에 발목… 3년째 첫 삽도 못떴다

•   동아: 인수위 “유가 대책 시급”… 기재부, 유류세 인하폭 확대 검토

•   한국: 허울뿐인 사회적 거리두기... "오미크론 '긴 꼬리' 남았는데 어쩌나"

•   한국: 4월 최저임금위 가동 …. 윤석열표 ‘최저임금 차등 적용’ 현실화될까

•   국민(P1): 한의원·피부과도 확진자 치료… 속도 붙는 ‘엔데믹화’

•   국민: [단독] 고탄소 배출 기업, 대출 받기 어려워진다

•   경향(P1): ILO, ‘산업안전보건’ 노동기본권 선언 추진

•   머니투데이(P1): "기업 이해하는 쪽이 해야"...'외교통상' 걱정하는 기업들

•   머니투데이: "상공부→외교부→산업부"...70년째 떠도는 통상본부

•   머니투데이: "수출로 먹고사는 日·獨은 산업통상하더라"...우리나라는?

•   머니투데이: "외교통상부 부활?"…기업들이 외교관 스카웃하는 이유

•   머니투데이: [단독]"집주인 호가=집값?"..인수위, 부동산 통계 들여다본다

•   헤럴드경제(P1): 대전-세종 경제자유구역 지정 검토

•   파이낸셜뉴스(P1): [단독]새정부, 부총리급 '국가균형원' 신설

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 기업 72% "올해 채용계획 있다"… 수시채용이 60%

•   파이낸셜뉴스: 글로벌 신규 프로젝트 감소… 해외건설 수주 '빨간불' [건설업계 원자재대란 직격탄]

•   파이낸셜뉴스: ‘재택근무 시대’ 저무나... 기관·기업들 회사 복귀

•   파이낸셜뉴스: "D램 가격 2분기 최대 5% 하락… 공급과잉 지속"

•   아시아경제: [전기차 공회전 韓] 치고나가는 中…글로벌 격전지 떠올랐다

•   아시아경제: [전기차 공회전 韓]"배터리, 리쇼어링 아니라 美 뛰어들 때"

•   아시아경제: 삼성-LG 동맹 임박…LG디스플레이 OLED 탑재 삼성TV 나오나

•   디지털타임스(P1): 대출족쇄 찬 `서글픈 직장인`… 1인당 평균 4862만원 빌렸다

•   디지털타임스(P1): 인수위 "임대차3법, 민주당 설득 단계적 법 개정"

•   이데일리(P1): [단독]1~2인가구 주거안정 위해 ‘도시형생활주택’ 규제 없앤다

•   연합: 오후 9시까지 전국서 41만4168명 확진…어제보다 8만여명 증가

•   연합: 지난달 일용직 14만9천명 감소…50대 남성 직격타

•   e대한경제: [단독] 시멘트 재고량 결국 바닥...건설현장 '셧다운' 공포

•   전자신문(P1): 지난해 가전시장 '반토막'...올해도 5% 성장에 그쳐

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]184兆 '배터리 소부장 전쟁' 불붙었다

•   전자신문: [스페셜리포트]소부장 기업, 신규 사업 '인력 확보' 총력전

•   전자신문: 에너지업계 "尹 정부, 원전·LNG·수소 에너지 균형 잡아야"

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Nina L. Khrushcheva): Nina L. Khrushcheva Says More…

•   Project Syndicate(Jean Pisani-Ferry): Crunch Time for Europe's Economic Sanctions

•   Project Syndicate(Kaushik Basu): The New Art of Economic Warfare

•   Project Syndicate(Helen Clark, Dan Smith, Margot Wallström): Replace Russian Oil and Gas with Renewables

•   Project Syndicate(Aryeh Neier): Russians’ Collective Responsibility for Putin’s War

•   FT(Editorial Board): China’s zero-Covid goal is no longer sustainable

•   FT(Martin Wolf): A new world of currency disorder looms

•   FT(Janan Ganesh): The Ukraine war is not the end of Donald Trump

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Tina meets rising yields

•   FT(Pierre Andurand): How sanctions on Russian energy exports could work

•   FT(Lex): Russian oil: flaws in tax plan mean Europeans cannot duck moral choice

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Biden’s Big New Wealth Tax

•   WSJ(Editorial Board): Washington’s Record Tax Windfall

•   WSJ(Jason Furman): Biden’s Better Plan to Tax the Rich

•   WSJ(William A. Galston): The Hard Truth in Biden’s Gaffe

•   WSJ(Philip Krause, Luciana Borio): You Likely Don’t Need a Fourth Covid Shot

•   WSJ(Nicholas Eberstadt): The U.S. Needs to Bankrupt North Korea’s War Machine

•   WSJ(Bjorn Lomborg): Be Afraid of Nuclear War, Not Climate Change

•   WSJ(William F. Ford, Daniel J. Smith): How Inflation Raises Your Taxes

•   NYT(Paul Krugman): Putin and the Myths of Western Decadence

•   WP(Editorial Board): This wasn’t supposed to happen under China’s zero-covid policy. But it is.

•   WP(Max Boot): Russia is retreating. Now give Ukraine the tools to finish the job.

•   WP(Marc A. Thiessen): Walking back his Putin ad lib made Biden look incompetent, and America look weak

•   WP(Daniel W. Drezner): How robust is the global opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?

•   Bloomberg(Bill Dudley): Is a Recession Coming? The Fed Has Made It Inevitable

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Not All Yield Curve Inversions Are Fatal

•   Bloomberg(Robert Burgess): Yield Curve Is Often Right But for the Wrong Reasons

•   Bloomberg(Bobby Ghosh): Ukraine Invasion: How Putin, Zelenskiy, Biden's Expectations Have Evolved

•   Bloomberg(Pankaj Mishra): Ukraine Invasion: U.S., Europe Demonizing of Russia Isn't Smart

•   Bloomberg(Jessica Karl): Don’t Fear the Inverted Yield Curve

•   Bloomberg(Karen Petrou): Financial Sanctions Call for a New Bretton Woods Framework

•   Fox News(David Marcus): Biden's alarming Ukraine gaffes beg the question: Who is running our country?