Global Economic Monitor 220322

(Introduction)

[Markets]

•   Global: Wall Street worries again over Ukraine, inflation

※   U.S. shares fall after Fed’s Powell reiterates hawkish outlook

※   Treasury yields and the dollar also climb

※   Crude oil prices jump more than 7% as EU weighs Russian ban

•   Metals: Aluminium jumps on Russian supply worries, nickel goes limit down again

•   Grains: U.S. wheat, corn, soy rally on concerns about Ukraine-Russia fighting

•   Steel: European Steel Prices Hit New Record on Prospect of Russian Ban

•   한국: 코스피, 외인·기관 매도에 4거래일만에 하락…2,680대로 후퇴

[Indicators]

•   Germany Feb. PPI: German producer prices jump by record 25.9%

•   China LPR: China keeps lending benchmark unchanged but Q2 easing expected

•   한국 4분기 건설공사 계약액: 작년 건설공사 계약액 10% 증가… 집값 상승 영향

•   한국 2월 거주자외화예금: 2월 달러예금 45.1억달러 늘어…석 달 만에 증가 전환

•   한국 3월 1~20일 수출: 3월 1∼20일 수출 10.1% 증가…무역적자 20.8억달러

[News]

•   WSJ: Russia, Failing to Achieve Early Victory in Ukraine, Is Seen Shifting to ‘Plan B’

※   Tactical shift seeks to pressure Ukraine into accepting neutrality and Russian territorial claims, U.S. officials say

•   WSJ: Russia Relies Increasingly on Missiles, Artillery to Pressure Ukraine

※   Moscow says it warned the U.S. ambassador of a rupture in ties after Biden called Putin a war criminal

•   WSJ: U.S. Sending Soviet Air Defense Systems It Secretly Acquired to Ukraine

•   WSJ: Ukraine War Complicates Biden Administration’s Military Strategy on China and Russia

•   WSJ: Some Chernobyl Staff Freed After Three Weeks on Duty at Gunpoint

•   WSJ: Ukraine Brings Back Agonizing Realpolitik Decisions

•   WSJ: EU Support Grows for Russia Oil Ban Over Ukraine War

•   WSJ: Powell Says Fed Will Consider More-Aggressive Interest-Rate Increases to Reduce Inflation

※   Bringing down inflation and avoiding recession will be ‘challenging task,’ says central bank leader

•   WSJ: Central Banks Grapple With Dual Threat of Slowing Growth, Rising Inflation

•   WSJ: U.S. Sends Patriot Missiles to Saudi Arabia, Fulfilling Urgent Request

•   WSJ: China Eastern Airlines Boeing 737 Crashes in China With 132 People Aboard

•   WSJ: Iran Nuclear Deal’s Final Hurdle Is Lifting Terrorism Sanctions on Revolutionary Guards

•   WSJ: China Evergrande Halts Trading in Its Stocks

•   WSJ: War in Ukraine Tests Faith in Emerging Markets

•   WSJ: SEC Floats Mandatory Disclosure of Climate-Change Risks, Emissions

•   WSJ: Oil Producers Aren’t Crazy to Worry About High Prices

•   WSJ: Shale Companies Drilling More, but Oil Output Growing Little

•   WSJ: Cash Crunch Drives Wild Moves in Commodities

•   WSJ: Agriculture Giants Stay in Russia Despite Calls to Exit Over Ukraine War

•   WSJ: China’s Big Tech Firms Are Axing Thousands of Workers

•   WSJ: War in Ukraine Disrupts Russian-European Mars Mission and Other Space Ventures

•   WSJ: Foxconn Running at Full Capacity in Shenzhen After Covid-19 Restrictions Lifted

•   NYT: The Smaller Bombs That Could Turn Ukraine Into a Nuclear War Zone

•   NYT: How One Oligarch Used Shell Companies and Wall Street Ties to Invest in the U.S.

•   NYT: Biden warns the private sector that Russia is exploring options for cyberattacks.

•   NYT: With Inflation Surging, Biden Targets Ocean Shipping

•   NYT: W.T.O. chief calls for deeper global trade to address supply chain disruptions.

•   NYT: U.N. Chief Warns of ‘Catastrophe’ With Continued Use of Fossil Fuels

•   NYT: Myanmar’s Military Committed Genocide Against Rohingya, U.S. Says

•   WP: The unpredictable risks of a new Russian debt crisis

•   WP: Biden’s plan for new normal spurs worries about next covid surge — and who is being left behind

•   WP: Saudi Arabia says it can’t be held responsible for oil shortages after Houthis attack energy facilities

•   FT: Transatlantic summitry to sketch out tough message to China

•   FT: Pécresse struggles to navigate ‘narrow space’ in French presidential poll

•   FT: Can Europe wean itself off its dependence on Russian fossil fuels?

•   FT: Sunak faces political balancing act as cost of living pressures mount

•   FT: UK nuclear task force proposed to fast track building power plants

•   FT: UK looks to North Sea oil and gas in race to secure domestic energy supplies

•   FT: Biden to meet CEOs as inflation and war in Ukraine jolt US economy

•   FT: Oil Inflation is Raising Costs for Uber Rides, Housing, Groceries and Vacations

•   FT: Hong Kong eases travel curbs that hit economy and sparked an exodus

•   FT: China’s calculus in Ukraine’s war

•   FT: Russian debt default fears stalk bond markets

•   FT: Central banks weigh dangers of inflation and war ‘shocks’

•   FT: Fears rise over ‘greenwash’ bonds

•   FT: Chipmakers face two-year shortage of critical equipment

•   FT: Pandemic and war force rethink of business models

•   FT: Swappie takes top spot on FT ranking with focus on sustainability

•   FT: Tech embraces sustainability in drive for growth

•   Bloomberg: S&P to Pull Credit Ratings for All Russian Firms After EU Ban

•   Bloomberg: Fed’s Bostic Favors Six Rate Hikes in 2022, Fewer Than Colleagues

•   Bloomberg: Summers Says Fed Policy Is ‘Triumph of Hope Over Experience’

•   Bloomberg: U.S. Inflation Seen Topping 3% Through 2023, NABE Survey Shows

※   NABE: March 2022 Economic Policy Survey

•   Bloomberg: ECB’s Lagarde Plays Down Concerns About Euro-Zone Stagflation

•   Bloomberg: U.S., U.K. Discuss Trade Cooperation with Larger Deal Postponed

•   Bloomberg: U.K. Home Sellers Ramp Up Prices in Strongest Ever Spring Market

•   Bloomberg: Xi’s Bet on Putin to Counter U.S. Risks Leaving China Isolated

•   Bloomberg: China Cabinet Vows Stronger Monetary Policy Support for Economy

※   In a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang, the cabinet called for adoption of monetary policy tools

•   Bloomberg: China Stockpiles Record Cash In a Sign of Slow Fiscal Stimulus

•   Bloomberg: China’s Population to Peak as More Provinces Report Declines

•   Bloomberg: Aide to Japan’s Premier Says Stimulus Must Be Considered Soon

•   Bloomberg: Indian Central Bank Chief Vows Ample Liquidity to Aid Economy

•   Bloomberg: Indonesia Ends All Quarantine Requirement in Broad Reopening

•   Bloomberg: Argentina to Resume Paris Club Talks Over $2 Billion Debt

•   Bloomberg: Bolsonaro’s Popularity Suffers as He Takes Blame for Rising Fuel

•   Bloomberg: Brazil Analysts See Rates Hitting 13% After Central Bank Pledge

•   Bloomberg: Here’s Why a Russian Bond Default Would Be Particularly Messy

•   Bloomberg: Iran’s Gas Potential Is In the Spotlight Again as World Shuns Russia

•   Bloomberg: EU to Propose Using 500-Million-Euro Crisis Fund for Farmers

•   Bloomberg: Russia Long-Term Oil Growth at Risk From Service Firms’ Pullback

•   Bloomberg: Russia Sees Oil Sales Continuing Thanks to Discount: Interfax

•   Bloomberg: China LNG Imports From Russia Doubled in February as Demand Fell

•   Bloomberg: Chinese EV Maker Calls Raw Input Price Hikes ‘Ridiculous’

•   Bloomberg: China Huarong Returns to Profit in 2021 After State Bailout

•   Bloomberg: Toyota, Subaru, Mazda Stick to Bets on Greener Combustion Fuels

•   Bloomberg Businessweek: China Bets on $1.5 Trillion of Tax Cuts in Quest for Growth

•   Reuters: Russia to face little impact from U.S., UK refusal to buy Russian oil, Ifax reports

•   Reuters: AstraZeneca COVID drug neutralises Omicron sub-variants in lab study

•   Reuters: U.S. FDA advisers to discuss COVID vaccine boosters in April

•   Reuters: Long lines for fuel across Cuba sparking concerns over supply, rationing

•   Reuters: Russia's Gazprom says it continues gas exports to Europe via Ukraine

•   Reuters: Factbox: Who is still buying Russian crude oil

•   Reuters: Analysis: Ukraine crisis another nudge for joint EU bonds

•   Reuters: Analysis: Europe split on how to spare consumers energy price pain

•   Reuters: Analysis: For Fed's Powell, 2019 remains the touchstone for a post-pandemic economy

•   CNN: Energy markets are changing in big ways

•   CNBC: Oil is likely to remain volatile and expensive as world deals with supply shortages

•   CNBC: Putin’s Russia looks increasingly desperate as Ukraine war nears stalemate, analysts say

•   MarketWatch: ‘The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift’: Home sales may drop 25% by the end of summer, analyst warns

•   MarketWatch: Could oil hit $300 a barrel? Why Russia’s deputy prime minister seems to think so

•   Fox Business: Experts warn new economic crisis 1970s-style to happen again

•   SCMP: Ukraine: a year after sanctions, EU-China ties face new ‘defining moment’ on Russia

•   SCMP: China debt: anti-corruption watchdog vows clamp down on the ‘money bags’ of local governments

•   SCMP: Explainer | Will China’s investment in Russia’s Far East help an increasingly isolated Moscow?

•   SCMP: China’s No 2 chip maker seeks Shanghai listing to expand capacity, as Beijing continues to back self-sufficiency drive

•   SCMP: In maglev innovation, Chinese researchers transfer power wirelessly to moving train

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan drops COVID restrictions on bars and restaurants nationwide

•   Nikkei Asia: Toshiba to spend $840m on power semiconductors

•   Nikkei Asia: Replacing Russian LNG from Sakhalin-2 would cost Japan $15bn

•   Nikkei Asia: Russia halts peace treaty talks with Japan over sanctions

•   Nikkei Asia: Japan issues power supply warning for Tokyo after quakes halt plants

•   Nikkei Asia: Energy guru Yergin: Putin has destroyed the economy he built

•   Economic Times: Business picking up, services too catching up, says Nomura

•   매경(P1): 경제단체장과 150분 식사한 윤석열…"기업 방해하는 요소 제거하겠다"

•   매경: '전봇대' '손톱밑 가시'처럼…尹의 규제혁파 상징어는 '모래주머니'

•   매경: 인수위 파견공무원 중 30%는 이곳 출신…윤 정부 실세부처로 부상?

•   매경: 인수위 "5월초 당선인이 국정과제 대국민 발표"

•   매경: 국무총리에 안철수, 김병준 거론…국정원장 후보엔 권영세

•   매경(P1): [단독] '문 정부 숙원사업'도 종부세 폭탄 못 피했다…한전공대에 100억 부과

•   매경(P1): 기후기술 강국으로…C테크 육성 펀드 만든다

•   매경: 정부 판 깔고 기업 뭉치고…청정수소 '금맥' 캐는 덴마크

•   매경: 우버 "2025년까지 약 1조원 투입, 전기차 진입 장벽 낮춘다"

•   매경: "어디서나 공기 중 탄소 포집…기업들 배출권 입도선매 잇따라"

•   매경: "폐배터리도 귀한몸…高부가 소재 캐내죠"

•   매경(P1): 니얼 퍼거슨 "인류의 다음 위협 2~3년 뒤 온다…대만 둘러싼 전쟁 우려"

•   매경: "블록체인·맞춤형AI 시대엔 빅테크 권력 줄어든다"

•   매경: "이러니 부동산 선거라고 하지"…박근혜 정부때 3조였던 보유세, 작년 10조 돌파

•   매경: 쌍용차 채권단 "에디슨 인수 반대"…법원에 탄원서 제출

•   매경: 구광모 회장 88억·김승연 회장 84억…그룹 총수들 작년 연봉 공개

•   매경: 유가·환율 악재에…1분기 실적 '빨간불'

•   매경: 코로나 여파 대중교통 이용 27% 급감

•   한경(P1): 美 '反中 동맹 요청서' 보내왔다

•   한경: 韓美공조에 힘 싣는 尹…美 주도 '경제안보 동맹' 참여 서두를 듯

•   한경: "쿼드 확대할 계획 없다"는 美…韓에 '오커스' 합류 요청하나

•   한경: 민주 "1주택자 2020년 공시가로 과세"

•   한경: 디지털 헬스케어 꽂힌 LG전자, 암웰과 손잡고 北美시장 간다

•   한경: 車 전장사업도 '가속 페달'…독일에 판매법인 세워

•   한경: 삼성전기, 반도체 패키지기판 증설

•   한경: OLED 르네상스 시대…소·부·장 웃는다

•   한경: 장비 임차료까지 껑충…건설업계 '울상'

•   한경: 포스트 코로나 앞에 선 기업들…세계 1등 위한 '항해' 시작됐다

•   서경(P1): 尹 '50조 추경' 드라이브…국채이자 비용 펑크날 판

•   서경(P1): [단독] 인수위 '尹 공약' 수술한다…폐기 가능성도 검토 지시

•   서경: "러 수출규제 장기화땐 韓 성장률 0.06%P 하락"

※   대외경제정책연구원: 우크라이나 사태와 대러 제재의 경제적 영향

•   조선(P1): [NOW] “수퍼항체 보유” 확진자들이 어깨 펴는 세상

•   조선: [단독] 尹, 경제단체장 ‘핫라인’ 개통... “마음껏 이야기해 달라”

•   조선비즈: 尹인수위 경제1분과, 現 예산실 관료 합류 불발…'한국판뉴딜’ 등 文정부 예산 삭감되나

•   조선비즈: 탄소중립법 곧 시행인데… 철강·정유, 온실가스 배출량 늘어

•   조선비즈: 반도체 공급난에 웨이퍼도 떴다… 16% 성장한 49兆 시장

•   중앙: 상위 1% 고소득 근로자, 75%가 수도권…“지역 불균형 심각”

•   동아(P1): [단독]‘反기업 정서’가 달라진다…“호감” 36% “비호감” 17%

•   한국: "가상 아파트 분양 경쟁률 장난 아니네" 메타버스 부동산 투자 열기

•   국민(P1): 유행 정점인가 했더니… 스텔스 오미크론 변수 부상

•   국민: 정부, 먹는 치료제 ‘라게브리오’ 이번주부터 신속 도입

•   머니투데이: ESG 리스크 중심화두, G에서 S로 중심이동 본격화

•   머니투데이: 열흘남은 한은 총재 임기…지금 임명해도 공백 못 막는다

•   머니투데이: 中CATL, 북미 공장 시동 걸었다…LG엔솔과 경쟁 격화하나

•   머니투데이: [단독]불 한번도 안 난 SK온 배터리 핵심 기술, 'Z-폴딩' 생산성 2.7배 높인다

•   헤럴드경제: 삼성·LG, 러시장 中에 내주나…국내기업 80% 직접피해

•   아시아경제(P1): 청소기 하나에 150만원…올해 가전 가격 더 오른다

•   아시아경제(P1): [무너진 원전생태계①]업계 히든챔피언도 수출 '제로'…원자력 전공생은 급감

•   아시아경제: “매출 10분의1 토막은 기본…탈원전 직격탄에 아사 직전” [무너진 원전생태계②]

•   아시아경제: [무너진 원전생태계③]해외서 외면받는 K-원전 기술

•   아시아경제: [단독]인수위, 서울시 '재건축 규제 완화' 집중 살핀다

•   아시아경제: [無人시대]주문받고 조리하고 서빙·결제까지…로봇으로 다 된다

•   디지털타임스: 철강업계 상반기 車강판 가격 대폭 올린다

•   디지털타임스: `전고체 배터리` 경쟁 붙은 K-배터리… 상용화 빨라지나

•   이데일리(P1): 하락하던 집값 반등할까…전문가 10명 중 6명 “오른다”

•   이데일리: 여전히 '짠배당' 왜…대기업들 현금 늘려 투자 확대 주력

•   이데일리: 고배당은 무조건 좋다? '오너 배불리기' 논란도

•   이데일리: 요소수 대란 지나니 '기름값 폭등'…다시 거리에 선 화물차 기사들

•   KBS: [단독] 우크라 부총리가 말하는 ‘협상의 조건’…“안전 보장돼야, 영토 양보 없다”

•   e대한경제: [단독] 시멘트價 ‘또’ 20% 오른다...역대 최대폭

•   전자신문: 현대차·기아, 전기차 해외 생산 늘린다

[Opinions]

•   Project Syndicate(Lolwah Al-Khater, Brian Finlay): Building the Green-Recovery Consensus

•   Project Syndicate(Gordon Brown): Prosecuting Putin Starts Now

•   Project Syndicate(Sławomir Sierakowski): Poland's Refugee Crisis in Waiting

•   Project Syndicate(George Magnus): Will China's “Common Prosperity” Survive Putin’s War?

•   Project Syndicate(Yanis Varoufakis): Why Stop at the Russian Oligarchs?

•   FT(Editorial Board): ECB must contend with the uncertainties of war

•   FT(Rana Foroohar): How war is changing business

•   FT(Gideon Rachman): Do not expect the war in Ukraine to end quickly

•   FT(Robert Armstrong): Could housing crack before inflation does?

•   FT(Scott Minerd): For lessons on fighting inflation, skip Volcker and remember 1946

•   FT(Sujeet Indap): Private equity facing more fractured world after invasion of Ukraine

•   FT(Andriy Kobolyev): Europe can help Ukraine by ending Russia’s energy stranglehold

•   FT(Lex): UK nuclear energy: small reactors could power a generational shift

•   WSJ(Walter Russell Mead): Sanctions on Russia Pit the West Against the Rest of the World

•   WSJ(Jillian Kay Melchior): Russian Invasion Makes a Logistical Hub of a Small Ukrainian City

•   WSJ(Pat Toomey): There’s Still Much More Sanctions Can Do to Help Ukraine

•   WSJ(Firas Maksad): A Crisis in U.S.-Middle East Relations

•   WSJ(William S. Scherman): After Ukraine, FERC Needs a Wartime Footing

•   WP(Leana S. Wen): A new covid wave may be coming. Most Americans shouldn’t worry.

•   WP(Daniel W. Drezner): When will the war in Ukraine end?

•   WP(Andriy Yermak): The West underestimated Ukraine’s bravery. Now, it’s underestimating Russia’s brutality.

•   Bloomberg(David Fickling): The Nickel Market Will Be Broken Even After the LME Is Fixed

•   Bloomberg(John Authers): Why Markets Have That Risk-on Feeling Again

•   Bloomberg(Anjani Trivedi): Just How Exposed Has Russia’s War Left China?

•   Bloomberg(Bobby Ghosh): Why Mariupol Matters to Ukraine and Russia

•   Bloomberg(Matt Levine): Everyone Wants to Do ESG Now

•   Bloomberg(Minxin Pei): China Could End the War in Ukraine. It Won’t.

•   Bloomberg(Adrian Wooldridge): Putin, Covid and Climate Change Drive CEOs to Embrace Just-in-Case Management

•   Bloomberg(Thomas D Grant): How the UN Can Expel Russia and Remain Relevant

•   Fox News(Robert Maginnis): Four ways Ukraine could defeat Russia